Recycling the City

Recycling the City
New Perspective on the Real Estate e Construction Industry
Ezio Micelli
Università IUAV di Venezia
REbuild
EURAC conference 19-20.XI.2015
The fall of the Real estate and Construction Industry
Conjunctural or structural change?
The long term trend: the come back to the 60s
Investments in the construction industry
1951=100
-17,4-17,8
-20,0
-19,5
-24,0
-25,2
-28,0
-26,8
Purchase agreements of residential units in the long term
-32,0
-30,5
I
II
trim.
2007
III
IV
osservato
I
II
trim.
2008
III
IV
I
II
trim.
2009
III
IV
I
II
trim.
2010
III
IV
I
II
trim.
2011
III
IV
I
II
trim.
2012
III
IV
I
II
trim.
2013
III
IV
I
II
trim.
2014
III
IV
ricostruita al netto dell'effetto dell'entrata in vigore dal 1° gennaio 2014 del nuovo regime delle imposte di registro, ipotecaria e catastale.
Elaborazione Ance su dati Agenzia delle Entrate
Italy
1985-2014
COMPRAVENDITE Purchase
DI UNITA' agreements
IMMOBILIARIinAD
USO
ABITATIVO IN ITALIA
Numero - migliaia
From 869k
900
858 869
828
800
agreements in
2006 to 418k in
2014
809
762 763
690 681
700
684
642
600
500
464 464
494 476
519
609 612 598
578
558
467
503 497 504
483
525
444
430
403 418
446
448 472
400
300
200
100
*Previsioni Nomisma
Elaborazione Ance su dati Agenzia dell'Entrate
2017*
2016*
2015*
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
0
1985
I
II
trim.
2015
The housing price trend in the last five years
ni in calo
tazioni si
negative,
ontenuti.
abitazioni 2015, un
secondo
zione più
esistenti
elle case
ella prima
intensità
ni relative
Housing
prices index
INDICE DEI PREZZI DELLE
ABITAZIONI
IN ITALIA
Numero indice I Trim. 2010=100
e Var.% II Trim. 2015/I Trim. 2010
100=2010
108,0
104,0
Nuove: - 1,0%
100,0
96,0
92,0
Totale: - 13,6%
88,0
84,0
Esistenti: - 18,8%
80,0
I Trim.
2010
II
III
IV
I Trim.
2011
II
III
IV
I Trim.
2012
II
III
IV
I Trim.
2013
II
III
IV
I trim.
2014
II
III
IV
I Trim.
2015
II
Elaborazione Ance su dati Istat
In forte riduzione la produzione di
nuove abitazioni
The traditional drivers of growth and the
wealth of the Italian families
Resident population in Italy:
Italian citizens and the foreign population
A country with no growth: Italian GDP from 2000 to 2014
Italian GDP raises until 2006, then the fall
The wealth of the the Italian families:
an international
comparison
La ricchezza delle famiglie: un confronto internazionale
Tav. 1
(*) (**)
(valori in rapporto al reddito disponibile)
2001
2002
2003
Usa
Canada
Giappone
Germania
Francia
Regno Unito
Italia
2,38
2,93
4,38
3,85
3,60
3,47
3,87
2,48
3,06
4,21
3,92
3,85
4,05
4,10
2,58
3,26
4,08
3,93
4,26
4,30
4,34
Usa
Canada
Giappone
Germania
Francia
Regno Unito
Italia
4,37
3,95
4,77
2,68
2,67
4,39
3,35
4,04
3,67
4,91
2,62
2,59
3,92
3,34
4,40
3,85
5,13
2,73
2,70
4,09
3,34
Usa
Canada
Giappone
Germania
Francia
Regno Unito
Italia
1,03
1,10
1,36
1,14
0,70
1,22
0,52
1,08
1,14
1,34
1,14
0,71
1,34
0,54
1,16
1,19
1,34
1,13
0,74
1,45
0,57
Usa
Canada
Giappone
Germania
Francia
Regno Unito
Italia
5,72
5,78
7,79
5,39
5,57
6,64
6,71
5,44
5,59
7,78
5,40
5,72
6,63
6,90
5,82
5,91
7,88
5,54
6,23
6,94
7,11
2004 2005 2006 2007
Attività reali
2,78 3,04 2,95 2,68
3,30 3,46 3,61 3,71
3,95 3,89 3,94 4,00
3,97 3,97 4,00 4,15
4,78 5,38 5,72 5,87
4,64 4,63 4,88 5,21
4,50 4,75 5,00 5,19
Attività finanziarie
4,72 4,91 5,10 5,13
3,94 4,29 4,42 4,48
5,19 5,51 5,54 5,38
2,80 2,90 2,86 2,98
2,77 2,92 3,08 3,09
4,22 4,61 4,76 4,79
3,45 3,60 3,60 3,39
Passività finanziarie
1,22 1,29 1,34 1,37
1,25 1,32 1,35 1,43
1,34 1,34 1,35 1,29
1,11 1,08 1,06 1,03
0,77 0,83 0,88 0,92
1,57 1,61 1,72 1,80
0,60 0,65 0,69 0,73
Ricchezza netta
6,28 6,65 6,71 6,45
5,99 6,43 6,68 6,75
7,80 8,06 8,13 8,09
5,65 5,79 5,80 6,10
6,79 7,48 7,92 8,04
7,29 7,63 7,92 8,20
7,34 7,70 7,91 7,85
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2,26
3,64
3,95
4,18
5,64
4,56
5,27
2,16
3,74
3,83
4,29
5,45
4,56
5,50
2,07
3,79
3,73
4,27
5,83
4,60
5,59
1,97
3,85
3,64
4,29
6,02
4,53
5,53
2,04
3,91
3,60
4,37
5,94
4,51
5,43
4,24
3,85
5,10
2,79
2,83
4,12
3,36
4,51
4,20
5,25
2,92
3,05
4,47
3,36
4,79
4,41
5,27
2,95
3,16
4,49
3,39
4,67
4,36
5,23
2,87
3,11
4,40
3,17
4,86
4,53
5,42
2,95
3,24
4,41
3,43
1,30
1,49
1,29
0,99
0,92
1,75
0,74
1,28
1,58
1,28
1,00
0,99
1,68
0,78
1,23
1,60
1,27
0,97
1,05
1,60
0,81
1,15
1,63
1,24
0,95
1,06
1,56
0,80
1,11
1,65
1,23
0,93
1,06
1,51
0,81
5,20
6,00
7,77
5,98
7,55
6,93
7,90
5,39
6,36
7,79
6,21
7,51
7,34
8,09
5,63
6,60
7,72
6,25
7,94
7,49
8,17
5,49
6,58
7,63
6,22
8,07
7,36
7,89
5,79
6,79
7,78
6,38
8,11
7,41
8,04
Fonte: OCSE.
(*) Ad eccezione dell’Italia, del Giappone e della Francia, i dati si riferiscono all’insieme delle famiglie incluse le Istituzioni Sociali Private
The quality of the real estate assets
17.000.000 millions of residential units
need to be retrofitted
How to combine an important investment plan
and limited financial resources from public and
private sector?
Energy bill can be the solution
The European experiences and
the Dutch case of Energiesprong
Conversion of the energy bill to an energy plan to pay for the investment
Total cost of living should stay the same
4g
Energy performance guarantee. The E=0 refurbishment package
needs to come with a long year (i.e. 30) energy performance
warranty on the house. This can only work if an insurer backs it.
Short term delivery. The installment of the packaged should not
require more than one week and allow occupants to continue living
in the house for the greater part of the works
Affordability. The ability to finance an investment requires a
business case. This implies the investment (largely) needs to be
paid for by the resulting energy cost savings. The net present value
of the energy cost savings over the lifetime of the package therefore
sets the price target.
Attractiveness. The refurbishment packages need to be attractive
to occupants. It needs to improve quality of life and the appearance
of the house.
Instead of trying to refurbish every house, focus on
the right housing stock
Collect a volume with a homogenous typology,
limited issues with planning rules, a lot of maintenance
that has to happen anyway and that presents a secure
investment.
Once a builder has developed a refurbishment
proposition for one of these houses it can be sold
to many. Meaning the innovation investment can
be spread out over many houses.
Once builders start developing more concepts for
more typologies and have flexible factories to
fabricate packages, the ability to apply a greater
amount of flexibility will increase, enabling builders to
fabricate solutions for houses with more diverse
characteristics
A great potential exists in
transforming the construction
industry developing and
producing solutions
industrialized
and not project based.
To decrease costs and to achieve
constant high standards of quality
and a short completion time a high
degree of prefabrication using
industrial processes is
unavoidable
The difference
between making a
car and a
refurbishment
pack for a house is
that the houses on
which these
packages need to
fit will have
differences
between them
Factories making
the packages
need to be
flexible, so they
can make wall and
roof solutions for
different
dimensions and
different mounting
mechanisms.
The basic idea on
how to do this is by
using 3-D
scanning
technique that
allows to make a
quick (and cheap)
scan of all the
relevant
dimensions of a
house with great
precision.
These
dimensions are
fed into a building
information
model generating
the technical
drawings that then
steers a flexible
factory producing
the packages.
The industrial issue. Challenge the building
sector to start developing such packages: if today,
property managers were to ask the builders to
provide a refurbishment meeting the economic and
performance criteria, this would not be
achievable.
The financial issue. Create financing products for
such packages: property organizations asking the
construction industry to offer such new
refurbishment concepts mostly need third party
financing for these refurbishments.
Energiesprong performances and costs
In less than
5 years the
costs have
been cut to
less than
one third of
the initial
budget
In a few years the prototypes have reached
the goal of being energy neutral
Energy can be the key to find the resources
to promote the construction industry through
the recycle of the city
An important industrial and financial effort
must be carried out
The outcome can be extremely relevant for
the energy policy - emission zero for the
existing building stock - and for the
construction industry - that could greatly
benefit from a radical innovation process
Thank you for your attention