volcanology - L`Istituto

Transcript

INGV-DPC Projects 2007 – 2009
VOLCANOLOGY
INGV – DPC Projects 2007 – 2009
Volcanology
Cover pictures:
top:
Etna, 2001 eruption. Ash plume and fallout seen from the Nicolosi –
Rifugio Sapienza road. Photo by P. Papale.
bottom:
Etna, 2002 eruption. Lava fountaining from the 2500 m a.s.l. cone in Piano
del Lago. Photo courtesy: Tom Pfeiffer / www.volcanodiscovery.com.
Index
General Statements and Organization
page
5
Coordination Unit V0
15
Project V1 – Unrest
21
Project V2 – Paroxysm
91
Project V3 – Lava
177
Project V4 – Flank
259
Project V5 – Speed
355
Appendix 1
363
2007-2009 INGV-DPC Agreement
Projects in Volcanology
The 2007-2009 Agreement between the Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (DPC)
and the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) includes the execution of a
series of Projects in Volcanology, aimed at achieving objectives of specific interest for the
DPC. Such projects should be carried out with a contribute from an ample scientific
community, both internal and external to the INGV.
The Agreement defines the general organization and coordination of the projects, as
well as the project number, their title and objectives. The Project structure is instead
outlined in this document. Within each Project, the initial “Objectives” session corresponds
to the Project description as in the INGV-DPC Agreement. That description, and the
products listed inthere, represent indeed the skeleton over which the projects are
constructed, and the goals of the Projects.
The management, organization, and transversal coordination of the Projects is
committed to a General Coordinator who supervises their execution. The set up and
coordination of each Project is committed to a pair (or in one case, three) of Coordinators
from INGV and from other Institutions. The Coordinators are responsible of the
achievement of the products in their Project. The General Coordinator and Project
Coordinators have been nominated by the ING President, in his decree n. 515, December
5th, 2007. On December 20th, 2007, the DPC has nominated for each Project one internal
Referent, who monitors the Project advance and may formulate further proposals for the
development and integration of specific activities. The appointed General Coordinator,
Project Coordinators, and DPC Referents, are reported below, together with the Projects
titles:
General Coordinator: Paolo Papale, INGV Pisa
Project V1 – UNREST. Set up of an integrated method for the definition of the unrest
phases at Campi Flegrei.
Coordinators: Edoardo Del Pezzo (INGV-OV Napoli), Lucia Civetta (Univ. Federico II
Napoli).
DPC Referents: Chiara Cardaci (Chiara Cristiani)
Project V2 - PAROXYSM. Definition of the expected precursors for major explosions,
paroxysms, and effusive activity at Stromboli volcano.
Coordinators: Antonella Bertagnini (INGV Pisa), Sonia Calvari (INGV Catania),
Alessandro Aiuppa (Univ. Palermo)
DPC Referents: Chiara Cristiani (Vittorio Bosi)
Project V3 - LAVA. Realization of the lava flow hazard map at Etna, and set up of a
method for its dynamic update.
Coordinators: Ciro Del Negro (INGV Catania), Stefano Gresta (Univ. Catania)
DPC Referents: Stefano Ciolli (Chiara Cardaci)
Project V4 - FLANK. Hazard related to volcano flank dynamics at Etna.
Coordinators: Giuseppe Puglisi (INGV Catania), Valerio Acocella (Univ. Roma Tre)
DPC Referents: Vittorio Bosi (Stefano Ciolli)
5
Project V5 - SPEED. Scientific projects included in the DPC - Campanian Region
Agreement signed on 07/21/2006.
Coordinators: Giovanni Macedonio (INGV-OV Napoli), Franco Barberi (Univ. Roma
Tre)
DPC Referents: Chiara Cardaci (Vittorio Bosi)
Project V5 – Speed differs in its conception from Projects V1 – V4, since it was
approved in the frame of a previous Agreement between the DPC and the Campanian
Region. That difference translates in substantially different number of Research Units,
different extent to which the Project is described here, and different cost voices listed in the
financial tables.
Project V5 – Speed reported here represents part of a more extended activity finalized
to the definition of the eruptive scenarios in terms of volcanic hazard, vulnerability, and
damage. The parts of the project not funded by the DPC and not included here are
described elsewhere.
Each Project achieves its objectives, constituted by the realization of the Project
products included in the Agreement, through the coordinated activity of the Research Units
(RU’s). The RU’s are led by a RU Responsible, who is responsible for the activities and
objectives of the specific RU. Such RU objectives, agreed upon jointly by the RU and the
Project Coordinators, constitute the scientific and technical contribute from the RU to the
realization of the Project products.
Each RU Responsible keeps close contact with the Project Coordinators, who in turn
ensure the required level of interaction between the different RU’s, and represent the
referents for the Project activities and the responsible of the Project success.
A total number of 46 RU’s form Projects V1 – V5. Projects V1 to V4 include on the
whole 433 scientific and technical personnel units (208 from INGV plus 225 from
Institutions outside INGV), for a total of 2216 person/months – or 185 person/years. The
institutions involved include 8 INGV Departments, 7 CNR Institutes, 2 other Italian
research Institutes, 1 PON, 21 Italian Universities, 10 European + 4 extra-European
Research Centers, 15 European + 7 extra-European Universities. The great majority of
RU’s contains personnel from different Institutions (e.g., INGV and non-INGV), in order
to improve exchange and cooperation. Exchange and cooperation at the level of
researchers, of RU’s, and of Projects, are essential ingredients of the Project activities.
Frequent meetings between Project participants are envisaged, according to the above.
A minimum of three plenary Project meetings is foreseen for each Project, the first one
representing a kick-off meeting to be held within two months from the beginning of
Projects; the second one representing the end-of-first-phase meeting, to be held within two
months before the deadline for delivery of the scientific report; the third one being the endof-project meeting, to be held within two months before the end of Projects. The General
Coordinator is committed to guarantee inter-Project coordination, that may pursued also
through inter-Project meetings on specific themes of transversal interest.
In order to guarantee an international level of the research activities and a sound
scientific basis to the Project products, the Agreement includes a periodic evaluation of the
Project outcomes by an International Evaluation Committee (IEC) formed by international
experts jointly nominated by INGV and DPC. The duties of the IEC are: i) evaluating the
initial Project proposals contributing to their scientific improvement; ii) monitoring the
6
projects and formulating an evaluation every 6 months; iii) keeping contacts with the
Project Coordinators and with the General Coordinator.
The chronogram of relevant Project deadlines is reported below.
May 1, 2008
October-November
2008
April 30, 2009
May 1st, 2009
May 1st – June 15,
2009
June 15, 2009
June 30, 2009
July1, 2009
September 30, 2009
NovembreDecember 2009
May 31, 2010
June 30, 2010
July-August 2010
August 31, 2010
September 30, 2010
October 31, 2010
Fund allocation 1st phase, official start of Projects
First half-year scientific evaluation by the IEC
End of 1st phase; deadline for delivery of the Project scientific
report.
Start of 2nd phase
First-year scientific evaluation by the IEC, re-definition of the
financial plan for the 2nd phase, and approval from the DPC
Deadline for 1st phase financial report by the RU’s.
Deadline for 1st phase financial report by the INGV (including the
financial reports by the RU’s).
Fund allocation 2nd phase. Possible closure of some RU’s.
Deadline for final financial report by RU’s not confirmed for the
2nd phase.
Second half-year scientific evaluation by the IEC
End of Projects.
Deadline for delivery of final Project scientific reports.
Final scientific evaluation by the IEC
Last term of use of funds for research grants and contracts, and of
funds for general coordination.
Deadline for 2nd phase financial report by the RU’s.
Deadline for 2nd phase financial report by the INGV (including the
financial reports by the RU’s).
7
8
General Financial Tables
9
Projects V1-V4. Financial Plan for the First Phase (Euros).
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
1) Spese di personale
66644
0,00
2) Spese per missioni
303200
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
3) Costi amministrativi (solo per
Coordinatori di Progetto)
4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre
prestazioni professionali
616550
0,00
5) Spese per servizi
50100
0,00
6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo
369413
0,00
7) Spese indirette (spese generali)
132333
0,00
1539240
0,00
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
95957
0,00
281490
0,00
Totale
1000
0,00
Projects V1-V4. Financial Plan for the Second Phase (Euros).
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
540550
0,00
19500
0,00
310250
0,00
114163
0,00
1364910
0,00
Totale
10
3000
0,00
Projects V1-V4. Total Financial Plan, First + Second Phase (Euros).
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
164601
0,00
584690
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
4000
1157100
0,00
65600
0,00
678663
0,00
247496
0,00
2902150
0,00
Totale
0,00
11
Project V5. Financial Plan for the First Phase (Euros).
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
1) Assegni di ricerca
60000
0,00
2) Spese di consumo
7000
0,00
3) Missioni in Italia
3500
4) Missioni all’estero
4500
0,00
5) Overhead
15000
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Totale
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
90000
Project V5. Financial Plan for the Second Phase (Euros).
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
80000
0,00
2) Spese di consumo
8000
0,00
1000
7000
0,00
5) Overhead
19200
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Totale
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
115200
Project V5. Total Financial Plan, First + Second Phase (Euros).
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
140000
0,00
2) Spese di consumo
15000
0,00
4500
11500
0,00
5) Overhead
34200
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Totale
12
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
205200
Fund request per Project and per Project Phase (Euros)
Funds 1st Phase
393440
360000
360000
425800
90000
1629240
Project
V1 – Unrest
V2 – Paroxysm
V3 – Lava
V4 – Flank
V5 – Speed
TOTAL
Funds 2nd Phase
346610
354000
360000
304300
115200
1480110
Total Funds
740050
714000
720000
730100
205200
3109350
Fund request per Project and per cost heading, divided into RU’s led by an INGV or by a non-INGV scientist, for Projects V1-V4.
Project
V1 –
Unrest
V2 –
Paroxysm
V3 –
Lava
V4 –
Flank
TOTAL
TOTAL
%
Personale
Missioni
Costi
Amministrativi
Studi, Ricerche,
e Prest. Prof.
INGV
Esterni
INGV
Esterni
INGV
Esterni
INGV
Esterni
46051
49850
83200
31500
1000
1000
154500
124900
19600
7800
105300
81000
41000
165000
74400
75000
159000
232000
75000
59290
116500
164200
3600
25500
10200
94751
67850
162601
5.7
2000
337900
246790
584690
20.1
3000
1000
4000
0.1
471000
686100
1157100
39.9
Servizi
INGV
Materiale
durevole e di
consumo
INGV
Esterni
INGV
Esterni
INGV
Esterni
133463
40500
45336
26750
463550
276500
165300
83400
36800
8800
368000
346000
4000
66200
47000
28800
28000
334000
386000
51100
99000
43800
36500
36510
365000
365100
Esterni
2000
12500
12500
57100
69600
2.3
463963
214700
678663
23.4
Spese indirette
147436
100060
247496
8.5
Totale
1530550
1373600
2904150
53
47
Fund request for Project V5 and per cost heading, divided into RU’s led by an INGV or by a non-INGV scientist.
Project
V5 –
Speed
TOTAL
%
Assegni di ricerca
INGV
Esterni
Spese di consumo
INGV
Esterni
100000
10000
40000
140000
68.2
5000
15000
7.3
Missioni in Italia
INGV
Esterni
2000
2500
4500
2.2
Missioni all’estero
INGV
Esterni
9000
2500
Overhead
INGV
Esterni
Totale
INGV
Esterni
24200
145200
11500
5.6
10000
34200
16.7
60000
205200
70.8
29.2
Fund request for general coordination and management
CU V0 – General Coordination
Personale
Missioni
20000
18000
Costi
Amministrativi
Studi, Ricerche,
e Prest. Prof.
56000
Servizi
Materiale durevole
e di consumo
Spese indirette
Altro
Totale
120000
214000
13
Fund request per cost heading for Projects V1-V4
Fund partition between INGV and Non-INGV RU’s, and General Coordination and
Management.
Fund request per cost heading for Projects V1-V4, divided into INGV and
non-INGV RU’s. The meaning of colours is the same as for the two diagrams
above.
14
CU V0 – General Coordination and Management
In order to ensure the general coordination and management activities, the General Coordinator is
Responsible of the Coordination Unit V0 described below.
Responsible:
Paolo Papale, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Via della Faggiola
32, 56126 Pisa, tel. +39 050 8311931, mobile +39 335 5233488, fax +39 050 8311942, email
[email protected]
RU Composition:
Responsible
Position
Institution
Paolo Papale
Research Director,
General
Coordinator of the
INGV-DPC 200709 Projects in
Volcanology
INGV-Pisa
Man/Months 1st
phase
2
Man/Months 2nd
phase
2
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
Man/Months 2nd
phase
3
Participants
Position
Institution
Massimo
Crescimbene,
Managing
Committee
Secretary
Lucia Civetta,
Coordinator of
Project V1 UNREST
Edoardo Del
Pezzo, Coordinator
of Project V1 UNREST
Antonella
Bertagnini,
Coordinator of
Project V2 PAROXYSM
Sonia Calvari,
Coordinator of
Project V2 PAROXYSM
Alessandro
Aiuppa,
Coordinator of
Project V2 PAROXYSM
Ciro Del Negro,
Coordinator of
Project V3 LAVA
Stefano Gresta,
Coordinator of
Technician
INGV-AC
Full Professor
Univ. Napoli
“Federico II”
0
0
Professor in
Geophysica
INGV-OV Napoli
0
0
Senior Researcher
INGV-Pisa
0
0
Senior Researcher
INGV-Catania
0
0
Associate
Professor
Univ. Palermo
0
0
Senior Researcher
INGV-Catania
0
0
Full Professor
Univ. Catania
0
0
15
Project V3 LAVA
Giuseppe Pugliesi,
Coordinator of
Project V4 FLANK
Valerio Acocella,
Coordinator of
Project V4 FLANK
Giovanni
Macedonio,
Coordinator of
Project V5 SPEED
Franco Barberi,
Coordinator of
Project V5 SPEED
Senior Researcher
INGV-Catania
0
0
Researcher
Univ. Roma Tre
0
0
Research Director
INGV-OV Napoli
0
0
Full Professor
Univ. Roma Tre
0
0
Activities and Objectives
This CU (Coordination Unit) includes all the general management and coordination activities
necessary for the execution of the Projects. The Responsible (General Coordinator) and the Project
Coordinators, take part to this CU, and form the Project Managing Committee with the following
tasks:
•
•
•
•
•
Supervise the project execution and development, the project coherency with the
foreseen activities, and the project administration and functioning.
Interact with the Referents from the Department of Civil Protection.
Manage the whole projects and ensure their progress.
Verify the state of advance of the projects and the correspondence of their results with
those foreseen in the INGV-DPC Agreement.
Guarantee interaction between the projects, ensuring maximum collaboration with the
General Coordinator.
The activities aimed at the above purposes include the followings:
•
•
•
•
•
Periodic meetings of the Managing Committee, with a frequency of at least one every 6
months, plus additional meetings when required.
Organization of specific meetings aimed at ensuring interaction between the Projects,
particularly on subjects of relevance for more than one Project. These meetings may
include the participation of selected international experts, either from the International
Evaluation Committee or external to it.
Organization of the Evaluation meetings with the International Evaluation Committee
foreseen in the INGV-DPC Agreement.
Organization of activities other than Project meetings (foreseen within the organization
of each Project) to evaluate the state of advance of the projects.
Set up of additional activities necessary to the achievement of the project results.
The General Coordinator calls the meetings of the Managing Committee, and defines the
agenda.
16
Specific tasks of the General Coordinator include the followings:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Ensure the scientific coordination between the Projects, including the transfer of
procedures, information, developments, etc., supported by the Project Coordinators.
Act as the INGV-DPC Project spokesman.
Supervise the Projects and watch over on Project deadlines.
Interact with the INGV President and with the Director of PREN Office of the Civil
Protection Department.
Keep contacts with international experts and with the International Evaluation
Committee.
Set up and update a web site dedicated to the INGV-DPC Projects.
The Financial Plan reported below reflects the activities foreseen to achieve the CU tasks.
Particularly:
•
•
•
•
the costs for personnel (“Spese di personale”) correspond to the costs due for the work
of the General Coordinator;
the costs for missions (“Spese per missioni”) include the costs for the several trips of the
General Coordinator to participate to the periodic Project meetings and to interact with
Coordinators and researchers, with the INGV President, with the INGV Administrative
staff, and with the Director of PREN Office of the Civil Protection Department, plus a
portion of the trip costs of the Project Managing Committee (12 people) during the
organization and evaluation of meetings foreseen above;
The costs for studies, research, and other professional services (“Spese per studi e
ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali”) include the fees for the International
Evaluation Committee, a minimum of 4 trips to Italy for the periodic evaluation by the
International Evaluation Committee (3 people), and the costs for inviting additional
international experts to specific meetings as described above;
The voice “Altro” (others) includes funds allocated to start new activities, or to
strengthen the existing activities, in order to ensure the achievement of the Project
objectives and realization of the Project products. Use of these funds, implying a redistribution of money within cost categories, will be agreed upon with the Department of
Civil Protection.
17
Financial Plan of Coordination Unit V0
First Phase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
10000
0,00
9000
0,00
3) Costi amministrativi
28000
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
25000
8) Altro
Totale
0,00
72000
0,00
Second Phase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
10000
0,00
9000
0,00
28000
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
95000
8) Altro
Totale
18
0,00
142000
0,00
Total
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
20000
0,00
18000
0,00
56000
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
120000
8) Altro
Totale
0,00
214000,
0,00
19
20
PROJECT V1 – UNREST
21
22
Project V1 - UNREST
Realization of an integrated method for the definition
of the unrest phases at Campi Flegrei
Coordinators:
Edoardo Del Pezzo, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Napoli –
Osservatorio Vesuviano, Via Diocleziano 328, 80124 Napoli, Italy, [email protected]
Lucia Civetta, Università di Napoli Federico II, Via Cinthia, Napoli, Osservatorio
Vesuviano, Via Diocleziano 328 Napoli, Italy, [email protected]
Objectives
It is known that the development and set up of techniques for data analysis and
modeling aimed at defining the various phases of volcanic unrest is more challenging for
dormant volcanoes, characterized by less frequent eruptions often with explosive character.
Among such volcanoes, Campi Flegrei, where several hundred thousands people live, have
been characterized during last decades by several bradiseismic crises which determined the
partial evacuation of the population, as for the crises in 1969-72 and 1982-84. Recent
studies developed in the frame of the INGV-DPC 2004-2006 Agreement have revealed a
process of unrest which continues since the fifties, and which presents macroscopic
characteristics similar to the several decades long unrest period which led to the last
eruption in AD 1538. Those studies have also remarked the relevant role played by the
large fluid circulation system at Campi Flegrei, on the kind of signals registered by the
monitoring network. It is clearly crucial, therefore, the development of a method for the
interpretation of the signals from the multiparametric monitoring network. Such method
should allow defining the state of the volcano and evaluating the probability associated to
the occurrence of a volcanic eruption.
In the frame of last INGV-DPC Agreement a method has been developed, which
allows accounting of any information and associated uncertainty coming from historical,
field, and modelling studies, and from the monitoring network, providing a probability on
the state of the volcano and on the occurrence of an eruption. In the present project such a
method will be explored and developed further, particularly through the experimentation of
methods for the definition of reference parameters and thresholds, and of criteria and
procedures to make it an operational tool useful for volcano surveillance and crisis
management.
As in the case of Campi Flegrei, the island of Vulcano hosts a well developed
geothermal system which largely affects the signals registered by the monitoring network.
Since the eighties Vulcano has shown significant changes in geochemical and geophysical
signals which determined periodic intensification of the surveillance activities. In order to
better understand the role of the presence of high temperature fluids on measured signals at
Campi Flegrei, the present project will favour a comparative analysis between the two
volcanic systems.
The research in the project will include the following steps:
a) Definition of the reference database for the validation of models of pre-eruptive
dynamics. The database will include geologic, geophysic, geochemical and
23
b)
c)
d)
e)
f)
g)
hydrologic data. The methods of historical research on the phenomenologies
observed before past eruptions can be also adopted.
Quantitative analysis of measured signals, and formulation of hypotheses on
source mechanisms.
Definition of appropriate sets of conditions for the simulations at the following
point (d), on the basis of a general conceptual model for the magma-rocksgeothermal system at Campi Flegrei.
Physico-mathematical modelling and numerical simulation of the magmatic and
geothermal process dynamics, and of the space-time relationships between such
dynamics and the geophysical and geochemical signals measured at the surface.
Definition of the critical parameters for the definition of the different unrest
phases, and development of possible new methods for their determination.
Realization of a prototype of an integrated multidisciplinary system for short term
volcano hazard evaluation. This system should integrate the information coming
from the monitoring network, the models and simulations, and any other kind of
information source in the project, within a simple and efficient scheme like the
Event Tree one. This should be useful in real time during emergencies, either real
or simulated (as for the Mesimex exercise at Vesuvius in November 2006).
Study of the methods for the operational use of the prototype above, and of the
modalities for interfacing it with the DPC Functional Center.
Expected products
•
•
•
•
•
Data employed in the project, organized in a database.
Definition of the expected space-time-dependent patterns of recorded signals
during the different unrest phases, and their relationships with the deep volcano
processes and dynamics.
Definition of the criticality levels for the various unrest phases.
Prototype of an integrated multidisciplinary system for short term volcanic hazard
evaluation.
Feasibility study for the realization of an interface at the DPC Functional Center,
to be agreed upon with the same DPC, with reference to the prototype system
above.
State of the art of the ongoing researches related to the present objectives
The CF caldera formed during two cataclismic eruptions: the Campanian Ignimbrite and
the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff occurred 39 and 14.9 ka ago. After the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff
eruption, both volcanism and deformation were very intense within the caldera, with at
least 72 eruptions (the last of which occurred in A.D. 1538 and formed the Monte Nuovo
tuff cone) grouped in 3 epochs of activities separated by long periods of quiescence. The
volcanic system is still active, as it is demonstrated by intense degassing (mainly from
fumaroles), large ground deformation, and seismic activity, which define a period of unrest
lasting from decades.
During the last INGV-DPC Campi Flegrei project (V3_2) significant advancements in the
evaluation of the volcanic hazard at Campi Flegrei have been achieved. They mostly
regard the:
- Unrest dynamics and short-term volcanic hazard;
- Volcanic scenarios and medium-longterm hazard, both constrained by the knowledge
(evolution and present state) of the volcanic/magmatic system of Campi Flegrei.
24
Task 1: RU Coordinating (Civetta-Del Pezzo). RU Participating: Civetta, Del Pezzo,
Festa, Chiodini, Freda.
This Task is devoted to the construction of a information repository which should contain
geological, geochemical, geophysical, hydro-geological and historical data. This repository
is needed to constrain and validate all the physical and the conceptual models describing
the pre-eruptive phenomenology. The realization of this task, that mostly deals with the
system definition at CF, will follow these main lines of investigation:
a) Inversion of geophysical data
b) Analysis of the past magmatic history
c) Laboratory determination of the rheological properties of the magmatic rocks
d) Field survey of the fumaroles and water points.
TASK 1 includes: Refinement and details (complexity of the interfaces) of the geological
structure of Campi Flegrei caldera, through velocity and attenuation tomography. The
evaluation of the existing results will be performed via the joint interpretation of
independent geophysical models (such as velocity, attenuation, resistivity and density) in
the same areas. This stage will be quantitatively approached by statistical methods of
correlation among multiple post-inversion physical properties models (cluster analysis).
The goal is to define a number of significant classes corresponding to regions of high
correlation. Within each class such correlation will allow to infer lithological and
physical/geochemical information. Lithological structure of Campi Flegrei caldera will be
further defined through investigation of the morphology of the main reflectors; use of the
beam-forming technique for the analysis of the diffracted wavefield; construction of a
detailed density model of the Campi Flegrei caldera and modelling of the physical
properties of the rocks at the main interfaces (RU Festa e Del Pezzo).
Refinement and details of the magmatic structure of Campi Flegrei caldera through the
determination of the P-T-X conditions of the magma reservoirs feeding eruptions younger
than 5 ka, by analyses of Melt Inclusions in crystals, and determination of the magmatic
components (geochemical and isotopical studies) involved in all the < 5 ka eruptions, not
studied in the last project, to better constrain the magma chamber evolution and the mixing
and differentiation processes occurring in the shallow and deep plumbing systems.
Definition of the relationship between the dynamics of the resurgence, vent position and
composition (in terms of magmatic components, magma chamber location and magma
chamber processes) of magmas erupted over the past 5 ka. Definition of the time scales for
the mixing processes in the magmatic system, by merging classic and experimental
petrology, numerical simulations and chaos theory (RU Civetta).
Catalogue of fumaroles and water points, possibly web based (RU Chiodini).
Determinations of viscosity of latitic and shoshonitic melts as a function of temperature
and dissolved water content. The data will be combined with those obtained at low
temperatures to constrain a model for the Newtonian viscosity of latitic and shoshonitic
magmas as a function of temperature and dissolved water content. The results will be used
as input for simulations of the processes occurring in magma chamber and conduit.
Determinations of physical properties of the main CF lithologies, such as density, porosity,
seismic anisotropy of P-S wave velocities, micro-seismicity output during hydrostatic tests
under conditions of pressure and temperature relevant to the area investigated (RU Freda).
26
The results of major relevance for the purposes of DPC, obtained within the V3_2 project
are described in the final report to the Civil Protection, dated July 2007 (V3_2, 2007).
Most of them are extremely relevant for the present project, such as:
a) the definition of the magmatic structure of CF, formed by a deep and large reservoir
with top at a depth of 7.5-9 km (detected from both seismic reflection and melt inclusion
studies), and shallow reservoirs at 4-2 km depth (detected only by melt inclusions studies),
characterised by repeated arrivals of deeper CO2 rich less-differentiated magma and
mixing processes. A new eruption often occurs in conjunction with new magma arrival in a
shallow reservoir.
b) The similarity between the historical reconstruction of earthquakes and bradiseismic
events occurred in the years preceding the 1538 eruption and the present unrest episode
further investigated during the project (1950 – today), that suggests that the present unrest
phase represents an event similar in its major characteristics to that which preceded the
1538 eruption, and together with that, unique at CF during the last 1500 years.
c) The results of 2D numerical simulations of coupled magma-rock dynamics performed in
order to establish links between deep, potentially hazardous magmatic processes (such as
the arrival of new magma into a hypothetical shallow reservoir at CF) and measurable
quantities at the surface. They show that complex convection and mixing dynamics occur
in a magma chamber over the time scale of minutes or tens of minutes, even in cases where
the initial CO2 and density difference of the two magmas is very low. The above results
represent however a first attempt to establish a link between signals measurable on the
Earth surface, and deep, potentially hazardous magma dynamics.
d) The results of inversion of gravity and deformation observed during the 1982-84 crisis,
evidence the presence of new mass coming to shallow level from larger depth.
e) Numerical simulations of the flow of gas-liquid mixtures through the porous rocks
constituting the geothermal reservoir at CF show that it is possible to contemporaneously
reproduce the long term (months) variations in gravity and the gas composition at
fumaroles, by selecting appropriate gas inputs into the geothermal system.
f) The whole results on magma, rock, and geothermal system dynamics can be organized in
a conceptual frame, which allows to reasonably expect selected and well defined signals at
the surface, that should occur in case of arrival of new magma into a shallow, small
volume magma reservoir that may be present at relatively shallow depth at CF.
g) In order to deal with the uncertainties associated with the extremely complex process of
short-term hazard evaluation at CF, an approach based on Bayesian Event Tree has been
developed. Such an approach allows an estimate of the probability of all possible volcanic
outcomes and relative uncertainties, taking into account geological/geophysical models,
expert opinions, past data and actual monitoring measures at the caldera.
Description of the activities
The Project is organized in 4 tasks. The bulk of the researches carried out in the present
Project is also propedeutic for the “Campi Flegrei Deep-Drilling Project” (responsible G.
De Natale, INGV-NA) and for ASI Project (responsible Fabrizia Buongiorno, INGVCNT). The first project (De Natale) wants to create an interdisciplinary natural laboratory
in the area of Campi Flegrei, centered on the multiple deep drilling both in land and sea.
The first hole is presently planned near the dismissed industrial area of Bagnoli, North of
Naples, close to the Caldera border. The research achievements within the present Project
will be available for the CFDDP, and in case the CFDDP should start before the end of this
Project, an intense and continuous exchange between the two projects is foreseen. The
Second Project (Buongiorno) aims at the measurement of regional and local crustal
deformation in the Central-Southern Italy.
25
Task 2: RU Coordinating (Del Pezzo). RU participating: Bonafede, Scarpa, Del Pezzo,
Chiodini, Saccorotti.
Quantitative analysis of detected signals, and formulation of source models.
This task is mostly devoted to the analysis of the experimental (seismological, geodetic,
gravimetric, geochemical, volcanological) data, aimed at assessing the space-time
background patterns, defining precursors, constraining the source models in terms of
geological structure, source location and dimension, and density changes. Quantitative
analysis of detected signals, and formulation of source models.
Task 2 includes: Joint inversion of geodetic (leveling, EDM, GPS, SAR) and gravimetric
data to infer location and depth of the magma source, taking into account caldera layering
and several types of finite source, and its mechanism in terms of moment tensor. The
elastic heterogeneities inferred from seismic tomography will be employed in two
complementary computational schemes: the former (employed mainly from RU Scarpa, in
collaboration with RU Bonafede) has the advantage of allowing fast evaluation of the
displacement due to an assigned source, so that inversions may be rapidly performed at the
onset of an unrest episode to retrieve source parameters from observed data. The second
computational scheme takes into account the realistic topography and 3-D vertical and
lateral heterogeneities unveiled by seismic tomography. Once the heterogeneities of the
elastic structure are properly accounted for, the data provided by the geodetic and
gravimetric networks may be used to increase the resolving power of models to detect
complexities of the source mechanism.
Definition of the background seismic noise properties, both from existing data and new
experiments; comparison of Vulcano background seismicity with that of CF; detectability,
nature and measure of the possible seismic precursors during the unrest phases at Campi
Flegrei and Vulcano island (RU Del Pezzo). Quantification (in terms of moment tensor
solution) of the event type classification at CF (Saccorotti). Quantitative analysis of the
borehole dilatometers data and of the long baseline-strainmeters and tiltmeters data, paying
particular attention at the interpretation in terms of the stress/strain diffusion phenomena
occurring in the aquifer at CF (RU Scarpa).
Definition of the components (magmatic, hydrothermal, meteoric etc.) involved in the
fumarole systems of Campi Flegrei and Vulcano based on of chemical and isotopic data, to
interpret the compositional changes as a function of variations affecting the deeper
magmatic systems. The fumarole data will be compared with petrologic data of the
corresponding magmatic systems (in collaboration with RU-Civetta).
Improvement and development of new methods for the acquisition of geochemical and
geophysical signals at volcanoes. In particular (i) a mobile infrared station to investigate
the Solfatara systems; (ii) a low-price prototype of an automatic station for the continuous
measurement of the dynamic pressure of fumarolic vents; (iii) a continuous gravity station
for detecting gravity changes arising from the deep magmatic/hydrothermal system; (iv) a
device for air CO2, H2O and H2S continuous measurement. Time series of selected
geochemical signals will be extracted from the OV monitoring data set (and from new data
collected during the project) and elaborated in order to make possible a comparison with
geophysical signals. The origin of the signal will be investigated in collaboration with
other RU of this project also by means of specific physical numerical simulations (RU
Chiodini).
Numerical simulations of the dynamics of multiphase systems and wave propagation in
complex, heterogeneous materials. In particular, simulations of 2D wave propagation to
define the medium response to elementary force systems, with the final goal of unrevealing
uniqueness and robustness of source mechanism determinations based on waveform
modelling. Parametric studies based on numerical simulations of the dynamics of
27
multiphase fluid mixtures, to assess the range of variability of acoustical properties and the
geophysical signals emerging from such dynamics (RU Saccorotti).
Datasets of monitored parameters and phenomenological evidence of the two episodes of
unrest of the early seventies and eighties, (RU Marzocchi).
Task 3: RU Coordinating (Saccorotti). RU partecipating: Saccorotti, Civetta, Chiodini.
Physical modelling and numerical simulation of the magmatic and geothermic processes
and their space-time relations with the geophysical and geochemical signals detected.
This task is mainly devoted at determining the physical models describing the mixing
processes acting inside the magma chambers, the thermodynamical interactions between
magma and geothermal system and the numerical solutions of the related equations to
describe their surface effects.
Task 3 includes: Quantification and characterisation of the dynamics of the magmatic and
geothermal systems, and of the geophysical signals (gravity variations, ground
deformations, seismicity) which are expected in response to transient episodes of magma
and fluid injection. These latter events are expected to affect both the magma storage and
hydrothermal systems, (RU Saccorotti).
Conceptual model of the Campi Flegrei and Vulcano groundwater circulation (RU
Chiodini).
As regards magma storage, numerical simulations of magma dynamics using GALES, a
finite element numerical code for the time-dependent 2D dynamics of multi-component
compressible and incompressible magma, will be made. The conditions for the simulations
will be defined together with the project consortium, and selected in order to be
representative of possible new arrival of magma within the deep reservoir at 8 km of depth,
and within possible small reservoirs at shallow depth. The simulations will describe the
time-space dependent dynamics of magma mixing and convection. The expected patterns
of gravity change will be determined by integrating in space the calculated time-dependent
mass distributions. Time-space-dependent stress conditions computed at the magma-rock
interface will be employed as boundary conditions for the numerical simulations of 2D/3D
rock elasto-dynamics, taking into account rock heterogeneities, and the real topography.
Some of the relevant system conditions will be varied in parametric studies in order to
ascertain their influence on the general dynamics (RU Saccorotti).
As regards the hydrothermal system, modeling will be carried out to investigate and
quantify geochemical and geophysical signals, which may arise from the evolution of the
hydrothermal circulation, according to different scenarios. The TOUGH2 multi-phase and
multi-component geothermal simulator will be used to simulate heat and fluid flow through
heterogeneous and fractured media. Observable parameters will be computed based on
simulation results. Different scenarios will be defined incorporating recent data on CF
(made available by last INGV-DPC project) and, when possible, taking into account results
from models describing the evolution of the magmatic system at depth (RU Saccorotti).
Task 4: RU Coordinating (Marzocchi). RU Partecipating: All the RU’s for the application
of BETEF_CF (Bayesian Event Tree for Eruption Forecasting for Campi Flegrei).
Task 4 deals with: Integration of the information from surveillance, models, numerical
simulation, in a simple frame to be easily used during emergencies together with TASK 1
(RU Marzocchi).
Application of BETEF_CF to the 1538 Monte Nuovo eruption and to the two episodes of
unrest of the early seventies and eighties (RU Marzocchi).
28
Realization of a prototype based on the event-tree algorithm, for the evaluation of the short
term volcanic hazard, that integrates all the information from surveillance, models,
numerical simulation, in a simple frame to be easily used during emergencies. Test of the
above prototype and its interface with Centro Funzionale of DP (RU Marzocchi)
29
Flow chart of Project achievements and products
30
4. List of deliverables
General
1. Repository of data, software and numerical simulation outputs utilized and
produced in the project.
2. Definition of the space-time pattern of the background seismic activity and of
the synthetic signals expected in case of unrest, together with their relations
with deep magmatic processes.
3. Definition of the criticality levels for the different unrest phases.
4. Prototype of an integrated multi-disciplinary system for the short term volcanic
hazard evaluation
5. Feasibility study for the realization of an interface between Scientific
community and Civil Defense to make the Prototype operative
Task 1. construction of a information repository which should contain geological,
geochemical, geophysical, hydro-geological and historical data.
1. Tomography models refined
2. Refinement and details of the magmatic structure of Campi Flegrei caldera
3. Catalogue of fumaroles and water points
4. Lab determination of geophysical and rheological properties of the Campi
Flegrei rocks
Task 2. Quantitative analysis of detected signals, and formulation of source models.
1. Location and depth of magmatic source y joint inversion of gravimetric and
deformation data
2. Definition of the background seismic noise properties. Comparison of
Vulcano background seismicity with that of CF; detectability, nature and
measure of the possible seismic precursors during the unrest phases at
Campi Flegrei and Vulcano island
3. Moment tensor solution based event type classification at CF.
4. Datasets of monitored parameters and phenomenological evidence of the
two episodes of unrest of the early seventies and eighties.
5. Chemical and isotopical definition of the fumarolic gases.
6. Set up of an infrared station, a continuous gravity station; a continuous
monitoring station for CO2, H2O H2S air components
7. Numerical simulations of the dynamics of multiphase systems and wave
propagation in complex, heterogeneous materials.
Task 3. Physical modelling and numerical simulation of the magmatic and geothermic
processes and their space-time relations with the geophysical and geochemical signals
detected
1. Quantification of the expected geophysical signals in response to transient
episodes of magma injection.
2. Conceptual model of the Campi Flegrei and Vulcano groundwater
circulation.
3. Numerical simulations of magma dynamics using GALES.
4. Expected geochemical and geophysical signals, in different secenarios, from
results of modeling the hydrothermal system (THOUGH2)
31
Task 4. Integration of the information from surveillance, models, numerical simulation, in
a simple frame to be easily used during emergencies
1. Application of BETEF_CF to the 1538 Monte Nuovo eruption and to the two
episodes of unrest of the early seventies and eighties (RU Marzocchi).
2. Realization of a prototype based on the event-tree algorithm, for the evaluation of
the short term volcanic hazard, that integrates all the information from surveillance,
models, numerical simulation, in a simple frame to be easily used during
emergencies. Test of the above prototype and its interface with Centro Funzionale
of DPC.
32
3. PROJECT V1 – UNREST
TABLE MAN/MONTHS
RU
RU-1
RU-2
RU-3
Institutions
UNINA
UNINA, INGV,
Univ. Munich, Univ.
Perugia, Brown
Univ. Providence,
USA
INGV – OV, INGVRoma1, INGV- CT,
INGV-PA Univ.
Perugia, Univ.
Palermo, INRIM,
UNAM, IUP
Heidelberg, Univ.
Goteborg
RU-4
INGV-BO, Univ
Roma3, RMS
London,
RU-5
RU-6
RU-7
RU-8
RU-9
Total
INGV Roma1, ETH
Zurich, UCL,
London, ENS, Paris,
Univ. Roma
Sapienza, Univ
Chieti
INGV-PI, INGVBO, Univ. Firenze,
Univ. Pisa, INGVNA, Univ. College,
Dublin,
Univ. SA, Carnegie
Institution,
Washington, USA,
University of
Colorado, USA
Univ. Bologna,
INGV
Principal
Responsibles
Task1
Festa
@
Civetta, Poli, Orsi,
De Campos,
Rutherford
@
Chiodini, Ventura,
Cardellini,
Berrino, Valenza,
Inguaggiato,
Taran, Kern
@
Task2
@
Task3
Mesi p.
requested
39
@
@
59
12
(UNINACococo) +
2
2
@
@
192
2+8*
@
22
1+8*
@
40
2
@
27
3
@
@
Mesi p.
cofunded
@
Marzocchi,
Scandone, Woo
Freda, Caricchi,
Burlini, Meredith,
Shubnel, Gaeta,
Poe
Task4
@
Saccorotti,
Todesco, Longo,
Cassioli, Barsanti,
Bean, Petrosino
Scarpa, Linde,
Bilham
@
@
40
Bonafede, Giunchi
@
@
38
@
@
70
2
527
42
INGV-NA, INGV
Roma1, INGV-CT
Del Pezzo,
Rovelli, Patané,
UniBA
Siniscalchi
@
*Requested within the present Agreement, but not included within the Project cost statement
33
Project V1 – UNREST. Financial Plan for the First Phase (Euros).
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
31294
0,00
60900
0,00
151650
0,00
1000
0,00
110243
0,00
38353
0,00
393440
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Totale
0,00
Project V1 – UNREST. Financial Plan for the Second Phase (Euros).
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
64607
0,00
53800
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
2000
127750
0,00
1000
0,00
63720
0,00
33733
0,00
346610
0,00
Totale
34
0,00
Project V1 – UNREST. Total Financial Plan, First + Second Phase (Euros).
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
95901
0,00
114700
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
2000
279400
0,00
2000
0,00
173963
0,00
72086
0,00
740050
0,00
Totale
0,00
35
Project V1 – UNREST. Table RU’s and related funding request.
N. RU
Istituz.
Resp UR
Personale
Missioni
Costi
amministrativi
RU-2
RU-3
RU-4
RU-5
RU-6
RU-7
RU-8
RU-9
36
UNINA
UNINAINGV-OV
INGV-OV
INGV-BO
INGVRoma1
INGV-PI
UNISA
UNIBO
INGV-OV
Servizi
Materiale
durevole
e di consumo
Spese
indirette
17400
1st
2nd
2nd
1st
2nd
1st
2nd
phas
phase
phase phase phase phase phase
e
6000 5700 2840 5060
51000
19000
3000
1300
7000
2850
5300 13500 10900
3000 6000 6000
21000
10000
22000
10000
21000
8000
9600
8000
6700
3000
5300
3000
3000
8000
6000
8000
16000 18000 4000
3000
Saccorotti 6800 6800
Scarpa
Bonafede
Del Pezzo 3794 3657
TOTAL 31294 64607
9000
3400
4000
9000
60900
6000
31000
4600
5000
8000
8800
1000 5250
53800
2000 151650
GRAND TOTAL: 740050
1st
2nd
1st
2nd
1st
2nd
phase phase phase phase phase phase
RU-1
Studi,ricerche
e prestazioni
professionali
Festa
Civetta
7000
Chiodini 6700
Marzocchi 3000
Freda
4000
40000 5000
5000
2850
1500
3000
1000
1st
phase
26000
9500 1000 1000
20000
21250
127750 1000 1000
16200
10900
6000
23143
110243
8000
5600
2000
5520
63720
7000 5200
1700 2300
2000 3000
4113 4023
38353 33733
PROJECT V1 – UNREST
Description of Research Units
37
38
Project V1 – UNREST
RU V1/01.
Responsible: Gaetano Festa, Ricercatore, Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, UniNA Federico
II, via Coroglio 156, email: [email protected], tel: 081 2420320, fax: 081 2420334.
RU Composition:
Scientific Responsible
Position
Institution
Gaetano Festa
Ricercatore
UniNA
Participants
Position
Institution
Aldo Zollo
Nils Maercklin
Maurizio Vassallo
Ortensia Amoruso
Tony Stabile
Professore
Ordinario
PostDoc
Ricercatore
Borsista
PostDoc
3
Man/Months
1st phase
Man/Months
2nd phase
3
Man/Months
1st phase
Man/Months
2nd phase
UniNA
3
3
UniNA
UniNA
UniNA
UniNA
3
3
6
4
3
6
4
Task – 1
During the previous INGV-DPC project, a 3D velocity model has been obtained by
merging active and passive data sets in a linearized tomographic inversion. Passive data
consist of 606 earthquakes recorded during the bradiseismic crisis, whilst the active dataset
is referred to the 1528 shots of the SERAPIS experiment in 2001. The tomographic
images, achieved by accurate traveltime modelling and earthquake location, confirm the
presence of a high P velocity ring in the southern part of the bay of Pozzuoli and extend its
trace inland. This annular anomaly represents the buried trace of the rim of the Campi
Flegrei caldera (Battaglia et al., 2008). The large value in the ratio Vp/Vs at about 1 km
below the town of Pozzuoli has been ascribed to the presence of rocks that contain fluids in
the liquid phase. Conversely, a low Vp/Vs body extending at about 3-4 km depth below a
large part of the caldera is interpreted as the top of formations enriched in gas under
supercritical conditions.
Additional information on the shape of the anomalies in the Pozzuoli bay has been
gathered by seismic reflection analysis on the SERAPIS data (Dello Iacono et al., 2008;
Vassallo et al., 2008; Maercklin, 2008). The Common Mid Point sections indicate three
main reflection events: (1) an interface at 500/700 m, which is the basement of incoherent,
water saturated, volcanic and marine sediments that filled Pozzuoli Bay during the postcaldera activity with a high Vp/Vs ratio; (2) an interface at 3km depth, associated with the
presence of gas-bearing rock layer (Vanorio et al. 2005); (3) an interface at 7.5km depth
with strong negative Vp and Vs contrasts which can be related to the occurrence of
partially molten rock in the layer below the interface, as observed beneath Vesuvius
volcano (Auger, 2001).
39
Finally, amplitude variation with offset (AVO) or incident angle (AVA) analyses were able
to estimate the velocity contrasts at the interfaces below the Campi-Flegrei caldera.
Although the analysis has been limited to a 1D geometry for the description of the
interfaces, the results revealed a super-critical fluid-bearing layer at around 3 km depth and
indicated a strong negative velocity contrast at 7.5 km depth, possibly related to the
presence of partial melt (Maercklin and Zollo, 2008).
Methods
Within this framework we propose (1) to investigate the morphology of the main
reflectors; (2) to improve the tomographic model throughout a conjoint inversion of direct
and reflected waves; (3) to use the beam-forming technique for the analysis of the
diffracted wavefield; (4) to build up a detailed density model of the Campi Flegrei caldera
and (5) to model the physical properties of the rocks at the main interfaces. Including the
reflector morphologies in a continuous velocity model (as the one inferred by tomography)
allows for a more realistic description of the propagation medium and hence of the
volcanic structure. Specifically to the CF area, it will allow for a spatial characterization of
the marine sediment to volcanic product interface at 600 m depth, the found gas-bearing
rock layer at about 3 km depth and the deeper low P, low S, high vp/vs layer which
presumably corresponds to the magma sill reservoir of the caldera. A better spatial
characterization of these interfaces will help in constraining the thermodynamic state
(pressure and temperature) and composition of the magma and provide useful information
for quantitative eruption scenarios.
The accurate knowledge of velocity variations within the shallow layers, including seismic
discontinuities, instead, will improve the resolution of earthquake location and focal
mechanisms, resolving the active areas at smaller scales and furnishing a snapshot of the
actual stress field close to the surface.
[1] As a first step toward a complex description of the main reflectors, a massive checking
and validation of the PP and PS arrival times measured on the seismic sections is required.
The initial depth of the reflector will be validated using a kinematic modelling, within a 1D preliminary background models. The geometry of the interfaces in this velocity model
will be obtained by a non linear inversion based on the genetic algorithm. The technique
will model the low wavenumber morphology by coincidence of reflected arrivals; then the
high wavenumber components will be added as perturbations in a multiscale approach.
Resolution analysis will finally performed to extract the robust features of the single
interfaces. The workplan will be concluded with a 3D morphology description of the
interfaces in a 3D background tomographic model.
[2] The tomographic model will be improved throughout a joint inversion of first and
secondary arrivals. After checking and validation of the input data sets, we will use the
software CAT3D to perform a linearized inversion on the traveltimes. We will first set-up
and test the software, then we will define the model to be used as starting point for the
inversion. Finally the results from the joint inversion will be interpreted within a resolution
study and an error analysis.
[3] The beamforming technique will be applied to the earthquakes with the aim of
individuating scatterers below the caldera rim. After selection and processing of the
appropriate earthquake dataset, the existent software will be developed and tested to
include a 3D modelling.
[4] The free-air anomalies will be modelled with a fine parametrization, inspecting the
effects of the several stabilisers in the Shdanov inversion scheme. An improved velocity
model will be used ad starting point of the inversion to analyze the influence of external
40
information to the gravimetric data. The accurate density model will be also used to
constrain the modelling of the physical properties of the rocks.
[5] Finally, in the framework of the rock mechanics analysis, we will compare observed vs
theoretical measurements of PS to PP amplitude ratios as a function of the offset. Then, we
will numerically implement the Gassman’ relations to infer the physical parameters of the
rocks from the seismic velocity models. We will investigate the narrowest range of the
elastic moduli without specifying any condition about the geometries of the constituents
with the Hashin-Shtrikman analysis and we will predict the changes in the wave velocity
produced by a substitution of fluids permeating the rocks. The analyses will be aimed at
interpreting the velocity changes (Vp, Vp/Vs) at Campi Flegrei interfaces.
Contribute by the RU to the general Project products 1st year
(i) An accurate density model of the caldera
(ii) Velocity changes at the main reflectors.
Contribute by the RU to the general Project products 2nd year
(iii) An Improved 3D tomographic model.
(iv) 3D Morphology of the main reflectors.
(v) A tool able to investigate the geometrical complexity of the interfaces in a 3D
background model using the reflected waves.
Tabella 1. Piano Finanziario (in Euro).
Prima fase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
5000
0,00
17400
0,00
0,00
6000
0,00
2840
0,00
0,00
31240
0,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
40000
0,00
5000
0,00
Totale
Seconda fase
Categoria di spesa
41
0,00
0,00
5700
0,00
5060
0,00
0,00
55760
0,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
40000
0,00
10000
0,00
17400
0,00
Totale
Totale
Categoria di spesa
0,00
11700
0,00
7900
0,00
87000
0,00
Totale
0,00
Curriculum of the Scientific Responsible
Personal information
Born in Avellino, Italy, on June 18,1977. Nationality: Italian
Education
•
Degree in Physics, 2000, (110 cum laude), at Naples University, Italy.
•
PhD in Geophysics, 2004, at Bologna University, Italy.
•
Post-Doc Researcher at IPGP, Paris, 2004-2007.
•
Permanent Researcher at Naples University, since November 2007.
Scientific contributions
•
Seismic source : Numerical modelling of dynamic earthquake rupturing and kinematic
source inversion of near-source seismic data.
•
Numerical simulation of wave propagation : wave propagation in complex media,
development of numerical methods for wave propagation (finite differences and
spectral element techniques), absorbing boundary conditions.
•
Seismic hazard evaluation : evaluation of ground motion in near-source regions
Selected papers of the RU responsible
•
42
Festa, G. & Vilotte, J.-P. (2004). Spectral element simulation of dynamic rupturing
along planar and non-planar faults, Proceeding of the 2004 International Conference
on Computational & Experimental Engineering & Science, Madeira 26-29 July.
•
•
•
•
Festa, G., Zollo, A., Manfredi, G., Polese, M. & Cosenza, E. (2004) Simulation of
the earthquake ground motion and effects on engineering structures during the preeruptive phase of an active volcano, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 94, 6, 2213-2221.
Festa, G. & Vilotte J.-P. (2005). The Newmark scheme as a Velocity-Stress Time
staggering: An efficient PML for Spectral Element simulations of elastodynamics
Geophys. J. Int., 161, 3, 789-812, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2005.02601.
Festa, G. & Zollo, A. (2006). Fault slip inversion by isochrone back projection.
Geophys. J. Int., 166, 3, 745-756, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2006.03045.x.
Festa, G. & Vilotte, J.-P. (2006). Influence of the rupture initiation on the intersonic
transition: crack-like versus pulse-like modes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, doi:
10.1029/2006GL026378
Awards
Prize “Associazione Italiana Geofisica” (Italian Association of Geophysics). Given
by the Italian Society of Physics (SIF), Palermo, 6 October.
43
RU V1/02
Responsible: Lucia Civetta, Professore Ordinario, Osservatorio Vesuviano-INGV, Via
Diocleziano 328 Napoli (Italy) and University of Napoli “Federico II”- Dip. Di Fisica,
[email protected], tel.: +390816108441, fax: +390816108344.
RU Composition:
Position
Institution
Lucia Civetta
Professor
University of Napoli
Federico II
Participants
Position
Institution
Massimo D’Antonio
Professor
3
3
Valeria Di Renzo
3
3
INGV-OV
INGV-OV
INGV-OV
INGV-OV
3
1
2
3
3
2
2
3
Cristina De Campos
Post Doc
Research Ass.
Technologist
Prof. Ord.
Researcher
Post Doc
Research Ass.
Researcher
University of Napoli
Federico II
INGV-OV
2
2
Giampiero Poli
Diego Perugini
Werner Ertel-Ingrish
Professor
Researcher
Researcher
2
2
2
2
2
2
Pasquale Belviso
Malcolm Rutherford
Technician
Full Prof.
University of Monaco,
Germania
University of Perugia
University of Perugia
University of Monaco,
Germania
INGV-OV
Brown University,
Providence-USA
2
2
2
2
Antonio Carandente
Giovanni Orsi
Mauro Di Vito
Annarita Mangiacapra
Man/Months
1st phase
Man/Months
2nd phase
4
Man/Months
1st phase
4
Man/Months
2nd phase
Task 1 and Task 3
The evolution and present state of the magmatic feeding system of active volcanoes, as
well as its structure and the conditions under which magmas are stored and differentiate,
control the uprising of magmas to surface, as well as size, type and timing of volcanism.
During the last Campi Flegrei (CF) project many geochemical and isotopical data, including
volatile content of melt inclusions (MI) in crystals, and experimental petrological data have
been collected on the CF products. These data have allowed us to reconstruct the magmatic
history of CF since ca. 60 ka until the last eruption, to individuate two main levels of
crystallization in the past 10 ka, at ca. 8 and 4-3 km of depth below CF, and to understand
the important role of CO2 in the history of CF magmas. Furthermore, most of the eruption
products studied (e.g., Campanian Ignimbrite, Astroni, Agnano-Monte Spina, Averno 2,
44
etc.) show clear evidence of magma mixing/mingling and entrapment of xenocrysts
residuals of previous eruptions, suggesting that magma mixing is a common process acting
in the CF magmatic system. These data have represented an important petrological data
base for inferring, together with the geophysical results, the present state of the CF
magmatic system, and for modelling magma chamber growth, evolution and processes. In
particular they have been used by others RUs to simulate change in magma chamber
dynamics induced by the arrival of a deep, CO2-rich magma in a shallow reservoir, and the
associated geophysical and geochemical signals. These results have clearly evidenced the
importance of the petrological constraints for the definition of the CF magmatic system.
It is our opinion that a detailed reconstruction of the evolution of the magmatic feeding
system over the past 5 ka, that is since the beginning of the last epoch of activity of CF, is a
necessary step forward towards both understanding of origin and dynamics of the unrest
episodes, and prediction of their future evolution. Our approach will permit to estimate
conditions (pressure, temperature, volatiles content) and architecture (relative volume and
chemical composition) of the magma storage system at variable depths, and to evaluate
magma chamber processes and their effects. The project will be carried out through several
activities, aimed at defining the evolution and present architecture of the magmatic feeding
systems, including location of past reservoirs in the framework of the structural setting of
the volcano; relationships between composition of extruded magmas and structural
position of vents of past eruptions; time scales for the mixing processes; present state of
the magmatic system; role of magma chamber behaviour in triggering volcanic eruptions.
Methods
The present project is aimed to better constrain: 1) the conditions (P, T, X) of the magma
reservoirs feeding eruptions younger than 5 ka. Among these will be investigated in
particular the Agnano 1, Agnano 2 and Averno 1 eruptions, that mark the beginning of the
third epoch of activity of CF (4.8-3.8 ka), characterized by the most intense uplift of the
resurgent block of the caldera., 2) the magmatic components involved in all the younger
than 5 ka eruptions, not studied in the last project, e.g. Agnano 1, Agnano 2, Averno 1,
Monte Olibano, Accademia, Solfatara, to better constrain the magma chamber evolution
and the mixing processes occurring in the shallow plumbing system. 3) the relationship
between the dynamics of the resurgence, vent position and composition (in terms of
magmatic components and processes) of the magmas erupted over the past 5 ka, 4) the
definition of the time scales for the mixing processes in the magmatic system, by merging
classic and experimental petrology, numerical simulations and chaos theory. This part of the
project will include a detailed geochemical study of two representative sections of Agnano
Monte Spina and Monte Nuovo eruptions, in order to characterize the geochemical
variability within the magma chamber at different length scales, (from meter to centimetre),
and, togheter with the results of experimental petrology, to constrain the time scales for the
mixing processes. The timescales results inferred from the petrology of Monte Nuovo
eruption products, will be further compared to the historical record of uplift and
earthquakes preceeding the eruption.
The studies will focus on eruptions of the past 5 ka, that are characterized by different
composition of the erupted magma and by vents located in different structural position, both
aspects significant for the reconstruction of the magmatic evolution of CF, and will include
detailed mineralogical, geochemical, (MI in crystals, glass, and whole rock), isotopic
analyses (Sr, Nd) at different scale (whole rock, separated minerals and glass, single
minerals), volatile contents in MI, and experimental petrological data.
The methodologies that will be uses are: ICP-MS, LA-ICP-MS, WD/ED microprobe and
TIMS for geochemical and isotopical analyses; FTIR and optical microthermometry will be
45
employed to characterize MI in crystals and measure volatile contents (H2O, CO2, Cl), and
experimental petrology for P and T and diffusion coefficients determinations.
The combination of classic and experimental petrology, isotopic and volatiles
determinations will highly increase our knowledge on the behaviour of the Campi Flegrei
system , in terms of magmatic components, time-scale of magmatic processes and
magmatic structure, furnishing a further tool for hazard assessment in this area.
1).Pressure of MI entrapment in crystals and temperature determinations of selected
eruptions younger than 5 ka, (e.g. Monte Olibano, Accademia, Solfatara).
2).Definition of the isotopically distinct magmatic component, if any, involved in Monte
Olibano, Accademia, Solfatara eruptions, and the role of mixing before these eruptions.
3).Characterization of the geochemical variability within the magma chamber of Agnano
Monte Spina, by studying in details one representative section of the eruption products .
4).Numerical simulation using data from past eruptions (Agnano Monte Spina, Averno and
Astroni eruptions), and experimental data from convection + diffusion-mixing experiments
under controlled chaotic conditions, (performed using CF products), with the goal of
providing a mathematical tool for the calculation of time scales of mixing.
1).Pressure of MI entrapment in crystals and temperature determinations of selected
eruptions younger than 5 ka (eg. .Agnano 1, Agnano 2, and Averno1).
2).Definition of the isotopically distinct magmatic components involved in Agnano 1,
Agnano 2, and Averno 1 eruptions and the role of mixing before these eruptions.
3).A detailed study of one representative section (Monte Nuovo eruption) in order to
characterize the geochemical variability within the magma chamber at different length
scales (from m to centimetre).
4).Calculation of time scales of mixing for Astroni, Averno1, Agnano Monte Spina e Monte
Nuovo eruptions.
5).Composition, magmatic components and history of the CF deep and shallow magma
chambers.
6).Definition of the relation between composition of the erupted magma, in terms of
magmatic components and processes, and structural position of the vents.
7).Kind and amount of volatiles in the magmas feeding the younger than 5 ka eruptions, and
determination of P and T of the deep and shallow magma reservoirs.
46
Richiesta finanziaria (in Euro)
Prima fase
Finanziato
dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
7000
0,00
6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di
consumo
3000
0,00
51000
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
3000
0,00
7000
0,00
0,00
71000
60,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato
dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
2850
0,00
consumo
1500
0,00
Totale
Seconda fase
Categoria di spesa
Totale
1000
19000
0,00
0,00
0,00
1300
0,00
2850
28.2006600+
28500
0,00
0,00
47
Totale
Finanziato
dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
9850
0,00
consumo
4500
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Totale
Importo
previsto
a
1000
70000
0,00
0,00
0,00
4300
0,00
9850
0,00
99500
0,00
NOTA: € 10000 (I fase) inclusi nella richiesta relativa a “Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre
prestazioni professionali” sono destinati alla stipula di una convenzione con la Brown
University, Rhode island (USA), referente il Prof. Malcolm Rutherford, per studi specifici
di petrologia sperimentale Determinazione di P e T) in rocce flegree, € 10000 (I fase)
inclusi nella richiesta relativa a “Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni
professionali” sono destinati alla stipula di una convenzione con l’Università di Perugia,
referente il Prof. GianPiero Poli, per analisi geochimiche e determinazione dei tempi di
mixing dei magmi flegrei, € 10000 (I fase) inclusi nella richiesta relativa a “Spese per studi
e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali” sono destinati alla stipula di una convenzione
con l’Università di Monaco, referente la Prof. Cristina De Campos, per studi specifici di
petrologia sperimentale e determinazione dei tempi di mixing dei magmi flegrei, € 5000 (I
fase) e, € 5000 (II fase) inclusi nella richiesta relativa a “Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre
prestazioni professionali” sono destinati alla stipula di una convenzione con l’INGV, OV,
referente il Prof. Giovanni Orsi, per studi specifici di vulcanologia e laboratorio isotopico.
CURRICULUM OF LUCIA CIVETTA
Organisation and address: University of Napoli, Federico II and Istituto Nazionale di
Geofisica e Vulcanologia – Osservatorio Vesuviano, Via Diocleziano 328, 80124 Naples,
Italy. Specialisation: geochemistry, volcanology.
1985-today: Full Professor of Geophysics at the University of Napoli Federico II.
1991-1993: Director of the Geophysics and Volcanology Department of the University of
Napoli Federico II.
1993-2001: Director of the Vesuvius Observatory.
Lucia Civetta is member of the High Risk Commission of the Department of The Civil
Protection and of the Commission in charge for the preparation of the Emergency Plans of
Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei.
Lucia Civetta is author of more than 100 international papers and scientific volumes.
Scientific activity has been devoted to the study of volcanoes (Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei,
Ischia, Pantelleria, Etna, Stromboli, Vulcano, Ustica, Roccamonfina, Ernici, etc.) and of
volcanic continental plateaux, (such as Yemen, Paranà and Ferrar-Antartica) and, in
48
particular, 1) to the study of genesis and evolution of magmas and magma chamber
processes, 2) to the definition of relationships between tectonics and volcanism, 3) to the
definition of relationships between magmatic processes and eruptive dynamics and 4) to the
reconstruction of volcanic and magmatic history in variable geodynamic settings.
Publications
TONARINI S., LEEMAN W.P., CIVETTA L., D’ANTONIO M., FERRARA G., NECCO
A., 2004, B/Nb and δ11B systematics in the Phlegrean Volcanic District (PVD). J. Volcanol.
Geotherm. Res., vol 133, 123-139
D’ANTONIO M., TONARINI S., ARIENZO I., CIVETTA L., DI RENZO V., 2007,
Components and processes in the magma genesis of the Phlegrean Volcanic
District,(Southern Italy). In: Eds: L. Beccaluva, G. Bianchini, M. Wilson (eds), Cenozoic
Volcanism in the Mediterranean Area. Geol. Soc. America, Spec. Papers 418, 203-220.
PABST S., WORNER G., CIVETTA L., TESORO R., 2007. Magma chamber evolution
prior to the Campanian Ignimbrite and Neapolitan Yellow Tuff eruptions (Campi Flegrei,
Italy). Bulletin of Volcanology. DOI 10.1007/s00445-007-0180-z
DI RENZO V, DI VITO M.A, ARIENZO I, CARANDENTE A, CIVETTA L.,
D'ANTONIO M, GIORDANO F, ORSI G, TONARINI S. 2007 Magmatic history of
Somma-Vesuvius on the basis of new geochemical and isotopic data from a deep borehole
(Camaldoli della Torre). Journal of Petrology. 48, 753-784 ISSN: 0022-3530.
ARIENZO I., CIVETTA L., HEUMANN A., WORNER G., ORSI G., 2008 Isotopic
Evidence for Open System Processes within the Campanian Ignimbrite Magma Chamber.
Bulletin of Volcanology, in press.
49
RU V1/03.
Responsible: : Giovanni Chiodini, Dirigente di Ricerca, Osservatorio Vesuviano INGV, via
Diocleziano n. 328, email: [email protected], tel: 081.6108448, fax: 081.6108466.
RU Composition:
Position
Institution
Giovanni Chiodini
Res. Director
OV-INGV
Participants
Position
Institution
Rosario Avino
Stefano Caliro
Antonio Costa
Domenico Granieri
Carmine Minopoli
Roberto Moretti
Massimo Russo
Guido Ventura
Giuseppe Vilardo
Carlo Cardellini
Francsco Frondini
Angela Baldini
Giovanna Berrino
Daniele Carbone
Alessandro Germak
Giancarlo D'Agostino
Claudio Origlia
MarianValenza o
Franceso Parello
Emanuela Bagnato
Roberto Di Martino
Dario Cellula
Rossella Di Napoli
Elisa Tamburo
Salvatore Inguaggiato
Fabio Vita
Fausto Grassa
Nicole Bobrowski
Dmitri Rouwet
Yuri Taran
Christoph Kern
Bo Galle
Researcher
Researcher
Researcher
Researcher
Technician
Researcher
Technician
Researcher
Researcher
Researcher
Researcher
Ph D
Researcher
Researcher
Researcher
Researcher
Researcher
Prof. Ord.
Prof. Ord.
Researcher
Researcher
Researcher
Researcher
Researcher
Senior Res.
Researcher
Researcher
Researcher
Researcher
Researcher
Researcher
Researcher
INGV-OV
INGV-OV
INGV-OV
INGV-OV
INGV-OV
INGV-OV
INGV-OV
INGV-Roma1
INGV-OV
UNIPG
UNIPG
UNIPG
INGV-OV
INGV-CT
INRIM
INRIM
INRIM
UNIPA
UNIPA
UNIPA
UNIPA
UNIPA
UNIPA
UNIPA
INGV-PA
INGV-PA
INGV-PA
INGV-PA
INGV-PA
UNAM-MEXICO
IUP Heidelberg, DE
Un Göteborg, Sweden
Man/Months
1st phase
Man/Months
2nd phase
Man/Months
1st phase
Man/Months
2nd phase
4
4
4
1
4
4*
2
4
1
2
2
1
2
3
1
1
1
1
4
5
5
6
6
5
5
3
5
2
3
4
2
2
2
50
4
4
4
1
4
4*
2
4
1
2
2
1
2
3
1
1
1
1
4
5
5
6
6
5
5
3
5
2
3
4
2
2
2
Campi Flegrei and Vulcano are characterized by the presence of important hydrothermal
systems which cause widespread fumarolic activity, thermal springs and submarine gas
emissions. In both the system the discharged fluids are mixture of shallow components
(meteoric at Campi Flegrei, marine at Vulcano) and magmatic gases. Fluid and heat
transport associated with hydrothermal circulation is particularly relevant at both the
volcanoes, being higher than the energy released by other processes and can be considered
a potential driving mechanism for ground deformation and seismic crisis. At both the
volcanoes strong compositional variations were observed during the last unrest periods and
were interpreted as caused by the arriving at the surface of CO2 rich gases of magmatic
origin. Numerical modeling of hydrothermal circulation at Campi Flegrei showed that
alternating periods of increased and reduced arrival of magmatic fluids into the
hydrothermal system induce not only the observed chemical changes but also potentially
leads to significant ground deformation and gravity changes. The same mechanism causes
detectable anomalies in both the soil gas fluxes and the thermal structure of the diffuse
degassing structures of the two volcanoes. It is our opinion that the definition of the
different phases of volcanic unrest at the two volcanoes has to pass also through the
assessment of observed geochemical anomalies. This project is aimed to i) a better
definition of the hydrothermal circulation in the two volcanoes; ii) the production of
suitable time related series of geochemical and geophysical signals also trough the
development and improvement of signal acquisition techniques; iii) the comparison with
correspondent time series of other geophysical signals (seismicity, ground deformation)
and iv) the interpretation of the signals possibly also with physical-numerical simulations.
Task 1:
Our RU will contribute to the data base with data regarding fumaroles and groundwaters of
Campi Flegrei and Vulcano. In particular data of fumaroles of Campi Flegrei routinely
acquired in the monitoring of the area will be integrated with new isotopic data (D, 18O,
13
C, 34S, 40Ar/36Ar, 15N, 3He/4He). A catalogue of fumaroles and water points of interest
(thermal water etc.) will be realised. Possibly this will be a web based catalogue
(depending on the budget).
Contribute by the RU to the general Project products, first year
Contribute by the RU to the general Project products, second year
Catalogue of fumaroles and water points (catalogue of manifestations, possibly web based)
Task 2
The activity in the frame of Task 2 will be mainly focused on the study of the Campi
Flegrei hydrothermal system even tough some investigations will be done at Vulcano. At
both volcanoes, where periods of volcanic unrest are related to the complex dynamic
response of a multiphase-multicomponent system, the definition of the different phases of
volcanic unrest can pass in fact through the assessment of observed geochemical
anomalies.
The fumarolic activity at both the volcanoes is very intense and, on the base of
previous investigations, can be considered well representative of the two systems.
51
The fluid phase released at surface represents in both volcanoes the convolution of
“hydrothermal” and “magmatic” gases. The original deep magmatic gases entering the
hydrothermal system are modified by a number of physico-chemical processes that lead to
the observed fluid discharges at surface, such as fumarolic emissions and widespread soil
diffuse degassing of carbon dioxide, and to thermal waters. Nevertheless, discharged fluids
bear the signature of changes affecting the deep magmatic systems. Understanding these
complexities pass trough detailed investigations of the fluids circulating in the two
systems. In particular detailed studies of the fumaroles will be focussed on a better
definition of the components (magmatic, hydrothermal, meteoric etc.) involved in the
fumarolic systems of Flegrei and Vulcano on the base of chemical and isotopic data. .
Vulcano is a small system compared to Campi Flegrei, and one purpose is certainly to
highlight differences and contrast between the two systems. Our hypothesis is that the
presence at the two volcanoes of geothermal systems of different size buffer in a different
extension similar episodes of magma degassing.
One of the aims is to arrive at the interpretation of the compositional variation observed
at the fumaroles in function of variations affecting the deeper magmatic systems, i.e.
variation of pressure, vescicularity etc. The fumarolic derived data will be compared with
petrologic data (vescicularity, melt and fluid inclusions etc.) of the correspondent
magmatic systems (in collaboration with the RU – Civetta). Other activities in the frame of
this task will regard the improvement and the development of new methods for the
acquisition of geochemical and geophysical signals at volcanoes. In particular (i) a mobile
infrared station will be used, in combination with an already existing automatic camera, to
investigate specific sector of the Solfatara systems where detectable thermal anomalies are
expected to occur during unrest periods; (ii) a low-priced prototype of an automatic station
for the continuous measurement of the dynamic pressure of fumarolic vents will develop
and test at Solfatara; (iii) 1 multi-parametric probe (temperature, pH, water level,
conductivity), already available at INGV, will be installed in one shallow borehole in the
Agnano thermal spring area; (iv) 2 general CO2 flux campaigns for year at Solfatara and
surroundings (~ 1 km2, ~ 400 measuring points), where most of the flux of hydrothermalvolcanic volatiles from Campi Flegrei caldera concentrate, will be performed; (v) a
continuous gravity station will be set up to detect gravity changes arising from the deep
magmatic/hydrothermal system; (vi) a device for air CO2, H2O and H2S continuous
measurement will be tested at Solfatara. Time series of selected geochemical signals will
be extracted from the OV monitoring data set (and from the new data collected during the
project) and specifically elaborated in order to make possible a comparison with
geophysical signals (seismicity, ground deformation, gravity etc.). The origin of the signal
will be investigated in collaboration with other RU of this project (i.e. RU – Saccorotti)
also by means of specific physical numerical simulations.
Moreover, the total CO2 output at Vulcano will be computed from the plume, fumaroles,
bubbling gases and the dissolved gases in thermal ground waters, while the SO2 flux will
be computed both, by means of a portable mini DOAS and an automatic proto-type DOAS
equipments.
2.1.1 List of magmatic vs. hydrothermal component of fumaroles at Solfatara;
2.1.2 Prototype of an automatic system for the measurement of fumarolic vent velocity
(FVV), (report with detail of the prototype and of the tests; I year);
2.1.3 Realization of the special support for the gravity station, installation of the recording
gravity station after a trial period, execution of an absolute gravity measurement and
52
gravity links with the absolute gravity stations in Napoli and Pozzuoli, calibration of
the instrumentation (report;);
2.1.4 Results of the soil CO2 flux campaigns, i.e. maps and total CO2 output estimations
from Solfatara and surroundings;
2.1.5 Acquisition and analysis of gravity data (data, report);
2.1.6 Genetic characterization of fumarolic nitrogen isotope and its possible use to
implement the geochemical parameters for monitoring of volcanic activity (data,
report);
2.1.7 Volatile budget of CO2 and total sulphur at Vulcano Island (data, report).
2.2.1 List of magmatic vs. hydrothermal component of fumaroles at Vulcano (report);
2.2.2 Series of IR images (report);
2.2.3 Series of multi-parametric data (Conductivity, water level, temperature, pH) at
Agnano borehole;
2.2.4 Results of the soil CO2 flux campaigns, i.e. maps and total CO2 output estimations
from Solfatara and surroundings (data and report);
2.2.5 Results of the tests of FVV at Solfatara fumaroles (data, report);
2.2.6 Acquisition and interpretation of the gravity data (data, report);
2.2.7 Acquisition of a data set with time on the Vulcano summit CO2 soil flux.
Relationships with changes in volcanic activity (data, report);
2.2.8 Acquisition of a data set with time on the Vulcano plume SO2 flux. Relationships
with changes in volcanic activity (data, report);
2.2.9 Elaboration and development of multiparametric geochemical model (data, report);
2.2.10 Monitoring of the content of CO2, H2O(v), H2S with an automatic station on
continuous base inside the Solfatara (data, report).
Task 3
The activity in this task will be aimed to a better knowledge of the hydrothermal
system of Flegrei and of Vulcano. In particular the activities will regards both (i) the
definition of the hydrogeochemical main features of Flegrei (and Vulcano) groundwaters
with the definition of the conceptual model of the hydrothermal circulation necessary for
the physical numerical simulation of the system and (ii) further investigations on the soil
CO2 degassing processes at Solfatara DDS (diffuse degassing structure). The
hydrogeochemical studies will be focussed on the definition of the role of fumarolic
condensates, produced in large amount both at Solfatara and Vulcano DDS, in the
groundwater circulation. Specific investigations, with the acquisition of new data, will be
the base for the physical modelling of the process which causes in the Solfatara area the
uprise of the water table. The physical model will allow to investigate the variation on the
shape of this sort of ‘groundwater’ dome (and in particular the depth of the water level in
selected points) as function of the flux rate of fumarolic fluids. In addition, specific
investigation will regards the mercury contents in fumarolic fluids, in soils and dissolved in
the groundwater as indicator of the convective heat flow. The results at Campi Flegrei will
be compared with those obtained at Vulcano. All the investigations will be done on the
base of literature data and data specifically acquired in the frame of the project. The
investigations on the degassing process will be focussed on the understanding and
simulating the important modification in the degassing features of Solfatara DDS occurred
53
in 2003 when a large area, eastern of the crater, increased suddenly the soil CO2 fluxes.
The interpretation of this variation on the base of the soil CO2 fluxes alone was in some
way ambiguous. In DDSs CO2 flux from soil is in fact fed by background and endogenous
gas sources. Because the relatively low value of the observed anomaly it was practically
impossible to discriminate if the observed increase was related to a variation in the
environmental parameters governing biological production of CO2 in the soil or to the
arrive at the surface of deeply derived gases. This study is aimed both to define a general
method for a better definition of background vs. endogenous sources in soil CO2 degassing
processes affecting volcanoes, and to understand the structural implications on the anomaly
observed in 2003 at Solfatara DDS. The study will be conducted on the base of previous
data and of new data specifically collected during the project. Finally the results of these
investigations will be the base for the definition of suitable conceptual and physical
numerical models of the degassing process and its modification.
3.1.1 - Conceptual model of the Flegrei groundwater circulation (report);
3.1.2 Recognising background vs endogenous sources in soil CO2 degassing (report);
3.1.3 Structural control on the degassing process at Solfatara (report, maps);
3.1.4 Determination of the abundance of Hg in the water tables of the Phlaegrean Fields
(data, report);
3.1.5 Determination of the content of Hg in the fumarolic fluids ( e.g. Solfatara, Pisciarelli)
(data, report);
3.1.6 Determination of the content of Hg in the soil ( ≈ 50 cm depth) ( Solfatara ) together
with Temperature and CO2 soil fluxes (data, report).
3.2.1 - Conceptual model of Vulcano groundwater circulation (report);
3.2.2 - Physical-numerical model (TOUGH2 application) of the groundwater circulation in
the Solfatara and surroundings areas, i.e. quantitative estimation of the effect of
fumarolic condensates on the groundwater circulation (report);
3.2.3 Conceptual and physical numerical model of the degassing process and of its
modification (report);
3.2.4 Determination of the content of Hg in the atmosphere with specific sampler (data,
report).
54
1st phase
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
6700
0,00
13500
0,00
21000
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
21000
0,00
6700
0,00
0,00
68900
0,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
5300
0,00
10900
0,00
22000
0,00
Totale
2nd phase
Categoria di spesa
0,00
9600
0,00
5300
0,00
Totale
53100
0,00
55
Total
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
12000
0,00
24400
0,00
43000
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
30600
0,00
12000
0,00
122000
0,00
Totale
0,00
NOTA: € 13000 (I fase) + € 13000 (II fase) inclusi nella richiesta relativa a “Spese per
studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali” sono destinati alla stipula di una
convenzione con l’Università di Palermo (CFTA), referente il Prof. Mariano Valenza, per
studi specifici riguardanti il mercurio come indicatore del flusso di calore convettivo nelle
acque di falda, nei fluidi fumarolici e nei suoli dei Campi Flegrei; per il monitoraggio di
CO2 e H2S in atmosfera per il controllo del potenziale “gas Hazard” nella Solfatara.
€ 4000 (I fase) + € 5000 (II fase) inclusi nella richiesta relativa a “Spese per studi e
ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali” sono destinati alla stipula di una convenzione
con l’Università di Perugia (DSTPG), referente il dott. Francesco Frondini, per campagne
di misura del flusso di CO2 dal suolo nell’area della Solfatara.
Curriculum del Responsabile Scientifico
1979 - Graduate in”Geology”at the University of Perugia (Italy); 1980-1985
hydrogeochemist for geothermal prospecting for private companies; 1986-1996 researcher
at University of Perugia where was the scientific responsible of 8 research projects on the
geochemical surveillance of active volcanoes; 1997-2008 Research manager at Istituto
Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, sezione Osservatorio Vesuviano, Napoli. Here he
is responsible of the geochemical surveillance of Campania volcanoes and he was
scientific responsible of 5 national and international research projects. Since 2004 is Chief
Editor of JVGR.
Scientific activity: the scientific activity mainly regards studies on the geochemistry of
hydrothermal fluids both for geothermal prospecting and for volcanic surveillance. Some
researches regarded the use of the gas and liquid phase composition of hydrothermal
systems as geoindicator of the deep t-p conditions. The present activity mainly regards
different aspects of earth degassing studies. A quick and reliable method has been
developed to measure CO2 diffuse soil degassing from volcanic apparatus and from natural
gas manifestations. Relevant researches were devoted to the mapping and quantification of
the CO2 Earth degassing in Italy. He is author of more than 70 publications in international
scientific journals. Many studies have been devoted to study the hydrothermal systems of
Vulcano Island and of Campi Flegrei and their variation during time.
56
5 pubblicazioni più rilevanti della UR
−
−
−
−
−
Chiodini G., Frondini F., Cardellini C., Granieri D., Marini L., Ventura G. (2001).
CO2 Degassing and Energy Release at Solfatara Volcano, Campi Flegrei, Italy. J
Geophys. Res., 106 (B8): 16213-16221.
Chiodini G., Todesco M., Caliro S., Del Gaudio C., Macedonio G., Russo M. (2003).
Magma degassing as a trigger of bradyseismic events: the case of Phlegrean Fields
(Italy). Geophys. Res. Lett. , 30 (8), 1434, doi:10.1029/2002GL016790
Granieri, D., M. L. Carapezza, G. Chiodini, R. Avino, S. Caliro, M. Ranaldi, T.
Ricci, and L. Tarchini (2006), Correlated increase in CO2 fumarolic content and
diffuse emission from La Fossa crater (Vulcano, Italy): Evidence of volcanic unrest
or increasing gas release from a stationary deep magma body?, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
33, L13316, doi:10.1029/2006GL026460.
Caliro, S., Chiodini, G., Moretti, R., Avino, R., Granieri, D., Russo, M., Fiebig, J.
(2007). The origin of the fumaroles of La Solfatara (Campi Flegrei, South Italy),
Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta . 71. 3040–3055. doi: 10.1016/j.gca.2007.04.007
Chiodini G., Vilardo G., Augusti V., Granieri D., Caliro S., Minopoli C., Terranova
C. Thermal Monitoring of Hydrothermal Activity by Permanent Infrared Automatic
Stations. Results Obtained at Solfatara di Pozzuoli, Campi Flegrei (Italy). Journal of
Geophysical Research doi:10.1029/2007JB005140 in press.
57
RU V1/04
Responsible: Warner Marzocchi, Dirigente di Ricerca, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e
Vulcanologia, sez. Roma 1, via Donato Creti 12, 40128 Bologna. [email protected], tel.:
+39-051-4151420, fax: +39-051-4151498.
RU Composition:
Position
Institution
Warner Marzocchi
Dirigente
Ricerca
INGV-BO
Participants
Position
Institution
Laura Sandri
Roberto Scandone
Ricercatore
Professore
Ordinario
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Dottorando di
ricerca Unibo
Dottorando di
ricerca Unibo
INGV-BO
Università
Roma Tre
INGV-BO
RMS, London
INGV-BO
Jacopo Selva
Gordon Woo
Alexander GarciaAristizabal
Luigi Passarelli
Man/Months
1st phase
Man/Months
2nd phase
Man/Months
1st phase
Man/Months
2nd phase
2
2
4*
2
INGV-BO
1
1
2
4
1
2
2
2
Task - 2
One of the major goals of modern volcanology is to set up a sound risk-based decision
making in land use planning and emergency management. One of basic scientific
ingredients of them is a reliable and quantitative long- and short-term eruption forecasting
(EF). Despite some recent researches on short-term forecasting are based on a
deterministic approaches, the presence of complex and different precursory patterns for
distinct eruptions, as well as the possibility that precursory patterns not necessarily lead to
eruptions, suggest that a probabilistic approach could be more efficient in EF. Recently, a
general quantitative model for volcanic hazard assessment based on the Bayesian Event
Tree (BET) has been proposed (Marzocchi et al., 2008). BET is a probabilistic model that
merges all kinds of volcanological information, coming from theoretical/empirical
models, geological and historical data, and monitoring observations, to obtain long- and
short-term probability of any relevant volcanic event, providing estimations that represent
a homogeneous and quantitative synthesis of the present knowledge about the volcano.
Moreover, the method also estimates the uncertainty associated to each estimations,
accounting properly for epistemic and aleatory variability.
The past DPC-INGV project dedicated to Campi Flegrei ended with a first preliminary
version of a Bayesian Event Tree (BET) that provides a quantitative probabilistic volcanic
hazard assessment (PVHA) and Eruption Forecasting (EF) for such caldera. Despite the
58
4*
2
significant step ahead compared to the qualitative hazard maps produced so far, the Event
Tree obtained clearly shows some "nodes" (i.e., some processes involved in the full
PVHA) where the uncertainty is still very large. In particular, most of the uncertainties
introduced in BET come from the first nodes related to the pre-eruptive phases. This is
mostly due to two main factors: the paucity of past data, and the complexity of the preeruptive physical processes.
Methods
We propose to improve the BET_EF (Bayesian Event Tree for Eruption Forecasting) set
up for Campi Flegrei, including all the relevant results coming from the other RUs of the
project. We remark that the final product must be seen as “living tool” that has to be
updated in the future as long as new information will be available.
A substantial part of the work will be devoted to apply the code to the available
chronology of the last 1538 eruption, as well as to the two main episodes of unrest of the
early seventies and eighties. This allows the reliability of the code to be checked.
At this purpose, since a detailed chronology of the episodes of unrest is still not fully
available to the scientific community, an important part of our work will be focused on
providing the detailed chronology of the monitored parameters and phenomenological
evidence for these two important episodes of unrest. In particular, we will revise and try to
homogenize the existing datasets of unrest phenomena. These case studies will be useful
to verify the reliability of BET, but will also improve the Campi Flegrei database in the
perspective of a global worldwide database of unrest episodes (WOVOdat).
Finally, we aim to introduce some basic rules for cost/benefit analysis, that, linked to the
probabilistic eruption forecasting, could provide a significant help to decision makers in
managing pre-eruptive phases. In particular, cost/benefit analysis maps continuous
probabilities into a binary evacuation/no evacuation decision.
For example, the
development of a cost-benefit framework to implement this mapping enables probabilistic
forecasting tools, such as the one provided by BET_EF, to be used more effectively to
improve evacuation strategies.
From a practical point of view, we emphasize the importance of a quantitative tool like
BET and the associated cost/benefit analyses. In particolar, the possibility to quantify our
knowledge has many paramount advantages: it allows moving from pure subjective and
qualitative decisions to some quantitative rules that can be shared, discusses, and
criticized BEFORE a crisis occurs. Anyone can understand what is the state of knowledge
about pre-eruptive processes, and try to improve it; this cannot be done if “knowledge”
remains unwritten on expert minds. Finally, from a practical point of view, decision under
uncertainty means that the “optimal” choice a priori is not necessary the choice that we
would have taken a posteriori. If something went wrong, we can rely on some quantitative
rules defined before and shared by a large community.
- Datasets of monitored parameters and phenomenological evidence of the two episodes of
unrest of the early seventies and eighties
- BETEF_CF software application (Bayesian Event Tree for Eruption Forecasting for
Campi Flegrei)
- Application of BETEF_CF to the 1538 Monte Nuovo eruption and to the two episodes of
59
unrest of the early seventies and eighties
Tabella 1. Piano Finanziario (Euro).
Prima fase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
3000
0,00
6000
0,00
10000
0,00
0,00
8000
0,00
3000
0,00
30000
0,00
Totale
0,00
Seconda fase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
3000
0,00
6000
0,00
10000
0,00
0,00
8000
0,00
3000
0,00
30000
0,00
Totale
60
0,00
Totale
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
6000
0,00
12000
0,00
20000
0,00
0,00
16000
0,00
6000
0,00
60000
0,00
Totale
0,00
Born in Bologna on April 11 1963.
1987: Graduated in Geological Sciences cum laude at the Alma Mater Studiorum
University of Bologna
1992: PhD in Physics, at the Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna.
1993-1995: Post-doctoral Fellow in Physics at the Alma Mater Studiorum University
of Bologna.
1998-2002: Associate Professor of Physics of Volcanism at the Osservatorio
Vesuviano of Naples.
Since 1998: Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna: Teaching activity for
graduate students in Earth Sciences and Physics, and for PhD students in Geophysics.
Since 2002: Gruppo Nazionale di Vulcanologia (GNV): executive committee.
Since 2003: Chief scientist at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
(INGV) of Rome.
Coordinator of projects and/or tasks within italian, european and international projects.
Author of about 60 papers on ISI journals.
Scientific interests:
Interaction among seismic and volcanic events.
Forecasting models for volcanic e seismic activities.
Volcanic and seismic hazard.
Models of volcanic system.
Chaos, fractals and complex systems in geophysics.
Selected papers of the UR responsible in the last 5 years
Marzocchi,W., Sandri, L., Selva J., 2008. BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and
sort-term eruption forecasting , Bull. Volcanol., doi:10.1007/s00445-007-0157-y
Marzocchi, W., and G. Woo, 2007. Probabilistic eruption forecasting and the call for
61
an evacuation, Geophys. Res. Let., 34, L22310, doi:10.1029/2007GL031922.
Lombardi A.M., W. Marzocchi, J. Selva, 2006. Exploring the evolution of a volcanic
seismic swarm: the case of the 2000 Izu Islands swarm. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33,
L07310, doi:10.1029/ 2005GL025157.
Marzocchi W., L. Zaccarelli, 2006. A Quantitative Model for the Time-Size
Distribution of Eruptions. J. Geophys. Res., 111, B04204, doi:10.1029/2005JB003709.
Sandri L., W. Marzocchi, P. Gasperini, 2005. Some insights on the occurrence of
recent volcanic eruptions of Mount Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy). Geophys. J. Int., 163,
1203-1218, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2005.02757.x
Selva J., W. Marzocchi, F. Zencher, E. Casarotti, A. Piersanti, E. Boschi, 2004. A
forward test for the interaction between remote earthquakes and volcanic eruptions:
the case of Sumatra (Jun. 2000), and Denali (Nov. 2002) earthquakes. Earth Planet.
Sci. Lett., 226, 383-395.
Cinti F., L. Faenza, W. Marzocchi, P. Montone, 2004. Probability map of the next
large earthquakes in Italy. Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 5, Q11003,
doi:10.1029/2004GC000724.
Marzocchi W., L. Sandri, P. Gasparini, C. Newhall, E. Boschi, 2004. Quantifying
probabilities of volcanic events: the example of volcanic hazard at Mt. Vesuvius. J.
Geophys. Res., 109, B11201, doi:10.1029/2004JB003155.
62
RU V1/05
Responsible: Carmela Freda, Ricercatore, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia,
Sezione Roma 1, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Roma, email: [email protected], tel. 06 51860
437.
RU Composition:
Scientific
Responsible
Carmela Freda
Position
Institution
Man/Months
1st phase
Researcher
Istituto Nazionale 3
di Geofisica e
Vulcanologia
3
Man/Months
2nd phase
Participants
Position
Institution
Piergiorgio
Scarlato
Sergio
Vinciguerra
Valeria Misiti
Luca Caricchi
Andrea Cavallo
Pierdomenico
Del Gaudio
Ventura Guido
Senior
Researcher
Researcher
INGV-Rm1
2
INGV-Rm1
2
3
Technologist
postdoc
Technologist
Technologist
INGV
ETH, Zurich
INGV-Rm1
INGV-Rm1
2
1
1
2
2
1
1
2
Senior
Researcher
Senior
Researcher
Professor
Researcher
Researcher
INGV-Rm1
1
1
ETH, Zurich
1
1
UCL, London
ENS, Paris
INGV-Rm1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Sapienza
Università
Univ. of Chieti
1
1
1
1
Luigi Burlini
Philip Meredith
Alex Schubnel
Jacopo
Taddeucci
Mario Gaeta
Brent Poe
Researcher
Professor
Man/Months
1st phase
Man/Months
2nd phase
3
Task 1
Part 1. Viscosity: We propose to perform a research finalized at determining dry and
hydrous Newtonian viscosities of selected samples, latitic and shoshonitic in compositions,
from relevant eruptions occurred at Phlegrean Fields (i.e., Fondoriccio and Minopoli).
Viscosities will be determined for temperatures and water contents approaching those
estimated during eruptions. Under these conditions, the low degree of crystallization of the
natural compositions is in agreement with a Newtonian rheology of the studied magmas.
63
The data, will be combined with those obtained at low temperatures to constrain a model
for the Newtonian viscosity of latitic and shoshonitic magmas as a function of temperature
and dissolved water content. The results will be used as input data for simulations of
processes occurring in magma chamber and conduit by RU 6. In addition, we hope we will
manage to also determine viscosities in the same compositions in presence of a small
amount of crystals. This in order to investigate the transition between Newtonian and nonNewtonian behaviour.
Part 2. Physical properties: The interpretation of seismological observation (RUs 8 and
9), in terms of nature and structure of the inner Phlegrean Fields calderas, requires
experimental determination of the physical properties of the representative lithologies. We
propose to measure physical properties of main lithologies, such as density, porosity,
seismic anisotropy of P and S wave velocities and record microseismicity output during
hydrostatic tests under condition of pressure and temperature relevant to the area
investigated. We are aware about difficulties of scaling up laboratory measurements,
However, microseismicity will be used here as a further indicator of inelastic mechanisms
built up in the rock during increasing/decreasing cycles of effective pressure, rather then as
a simulation of seismic events. The acoustic signals that are spontaneously generated from
the microcracking provide information about the size, location and deformation
mechanisms of the events as well as properties of the medium through which the acoustic
wave travel (e.g. velocity, attenuation and scattering), thus relevant for the Vp and Vs
measurements. On the same token porosity and permeability measurements provide first
basic and fundamental knowledge of transport material properties, which are scale
invariant and must be included in realistic modelling of fluid migration processes in the
caldera.
Methods
Part 1. Viscosity: For Newtonian viscosity determinations, representative samples from
Phlegrean Fields (Fondoriccio and Minopoli?) deposits will be collected. The viscosity
values will be determined on both dry and hydrous samples at constant P and variable
superliquidus T in the piston cylinder apparatus of the HP-HT Laboratory of INGV in
Rome, using the falling sphere method (based on Stokes equation). This method consists in
placing a sphere at the top of the sample capsule; once the sample melts, at the temperature
of interest, the sphere will sink in the melt with a velocity depending on density difference
between the sphere and the melt. Combining the results with those obtained at low
temperature using the micropenetration technique we will be able to obtain an equation of
the viscosity as a function of temperature and dissolved water content.
Part 2. Physical properties: Representative samples of the caldera inner structure will be
collected. Microstructural observations on the collected lithologies will aim to describe the
mineralogical phases to characterize textural features and pore structure. A petrophysical
characterization will follow up through measurements of the bulk and grain densities,
interconnected and total porosity. Measurement of seismic properties (both P and S waves)
under room pressure and temperature on both dry and fluid saturated samples will aim to
characterise initially the seismic properties and the seismic anisotropy. Seismic properties
(Vp and Vs) will be then investigated at increasing pressures (up to 150MPa) and pore
fluids conditions, in order to characterise the pore space and cracks seismic properties.
During a pressure cycle, we will determine how seismic properties change in a reversible
(elastic) and irreversible manner.
64
Finally seismic properties (Vp and Vs) will be measured at increasing pressure (up to
0,5GPa) and temperature (up to 1100°C) under hydrostatic conditions. We will also record
microseismicity in terms of acoustic emissions.
1. preliminar model of the viscosity of latitic and shoshonitic melts as a function of
temperature and dissolved water content
2. Physical properties at increasing confining pressure and room temperature to obtain
the pressure derivatives of velocities
1. equation of the viscosity of latitic and shoshonitic melts as a function of
temperature and dissolved water content
2. Seismic properties measurements at high pressure and increasing temperature to
obtain the temperature derivatives of the Vp and Vs
Piano Finanziario (Euro)
Prima fase
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
4000
0,00
8000
0,00
8000
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
16000
0,00
4000
0,00
0,00
40000
0,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
3000
0,00
6000
0,00
Totale
Seconda fase
Categoria di spesa
65
0,00
0,00
18000
0,00
3000
0,00
0,00
30000
0,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
7000
0,00
14000
0,00
8000
0,00
Totale
Totale
Categoria di spesa
0,00
34000
0,00
7000
0,00
70000
0,00
Totale
0,00
Main Facilities
Hydrostatic permeameter for porosity and permeability up to 200 MPa and pore fluids
pressures up to 70 MPa, with P and S wave velocities measurement.
Superpress. 840 tons press. Piston cylinder and Multianvil (MA) - Walker type 6/8
equipped for HPHT physical and rheological properties measurements
Paterson rig apparatus, load cell 1000kN, effective pressures up to 300MPa and
temperatures up to 1200°C and PZT transducers for the physical properties.
WD/ED Microprobe (5 spectrometers)
Field Emission Scanning Electron microscopy
Born:
Nationality:
Education:
Experience:
66
09 September 1964, Milano, Italy
Italian
I graduated in Earth Sciences at Rome University “La Sapienza” in
1989 with a thesis in Experimental Volcanology.
I’m researcher at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
(Italy). I started my research activities at "La Sapienza" and improved
my skills with international cooperative experience in UK, at the
University of Bristol, in Canada, with Prof. D.R. Baker (McGill
University), and in Germany, at HT-HP experimental laboratory of the
Bayerisches Geoinstitut, Germany. I’m a petrologist with a strong
experimental background, experienced in phase equilibria, elements
diffusion in silicate melts, and in the genesis and features of the Kalkaline magmatism of central Italy. I also participated at the
emergencies during the 2001-Etna and 2002-2003 and 2007-Stromboli
eruptive phases. I’m responsible of the HP-HT Laboratory for
Experimental Volcanology and Geophysics of the INGV.
Scientific interest: i) geochronology, petrology, and experimental petrology of Italian
volcanoes; ii) experimental determination of diffusivity of volatile and
non-volatile elements in natural magmas and related processes; iii)
experimental studies on magma rheology; iv) electrical conductivity
measurements on natural rocks.
5 most relevant publications of RU
Misiti V., Freda C., Taddeucci J., Romano C., Scarlato P., Longo A., Papale P., Poe B.T.
(2006), The effect of H2O on the viscosity of K-trachytic melts at magmatic temperatures,
Chemical Geology 235, 124-137, doi: 10.1016/j.chemgeo.2006.06.007.
Scarlato P., Poe B.T., Freda C., Gaeta M. (2004), High-pressure and high-temperature
measurements of electrical conductivity in basaltic rocks from Mt. Etna, Sicily, Italy. J.
Geophys. Res., 109, B02210, doi:10.1029/2003JB002666.
Vetere F., Behrens H., Misiti V., Ventura G., Holtz F., De Rosa R., Deubener J. (2007),
The viscosity of shoshonitic melts (Vulcanello Peninsula, Aeolian Islands, Italy): insight
on the magma ascent in dikes. Chemical Geology 245, 89-102.
Vinciguerra S., Trovato C., P.G. Meredith, P.M. Benson, C. Troise, G. De Natale,
Understanding the seismic velocity structure of Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy): from the
laboratory to the field scale, Pure Applied Geophysics, 163, 2205-2221, 2006
Vinciguerra S., Trovato C., Meredith P.G., Benson P.M.. Relating seismic velocities,
permeability and crack damage in interpreting the mechanics of active volcanoes,
International Journal of Rock Mechanics, 42/7-8, 900-910, 2005.
67
RU V1/06
Responsible: Gilberto Saccorotti, Primo Ricercatore, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e
Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Via della Faggiola 32, 56126 Pisa, email:
[email protected], tel. 050 8311960.
RU Composition:
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Gilberto Saccorotti
Primo Ricercatore
INGV-PI
Participants
Position
Institution
Micol Todesco
Antonio Pio Rinaldi
Anita Grezio
Antonella Longo
Luca Bisconti
Chiara Montagna
Melissa Vassalli
Andrea Cassioli
Michele Barsanti
Chris Bean
Gareth O’Brian
Ivan Lokmer
Simona Petrosino
Paola Cusano
Ricercatore
PhD Stud.
Assegnista
Ricercatore
Ass Ric VOLUME
Ass. Ric. VOLUME
Ass. Ric. AIRPLANE
Dottorando UNIFI
Ricercatore
Ass. Professor
Post-Doc Res Fellow
PhD Res Fellow
Tecnologo
Coll. Tecnico
INGV-BO
INGV-BO
INGV-BO
INGV-PI
INGV-PI
INGV-PI
INGV-PI
Univ. Firenze
Univ. Pisa
Univ. Coll. Dublin
Univ. Coll. Dublin
Univ. Coll. Dublin
INGV-NA
INGV-NA
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
Man/Months 2nd
phase
3
Man/Months 1st
phase
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
Man/Months 2nd
phase
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
In the framework of the past INGV-DPC project V3_6 'Campi Flegrei', several of the
present UR's members performed 2D numerical simulations of coupled magma-rock
dynamics. These efforts were conducted with the goal of establishing links between deep,
potentially hazardous magmatic processes (such as the arrival of new magma into a
hypothetical shallow reservoir at CF) and measurable geophysical quantities at the surface.
Results indicated that the complex dynamics occurring within the chamber result in ground
oscillations over a broad frequency range, spanning from the quasi-static deformation to 12Hz. Amplitude of these signals varied between 10-6 m to 10-3 – 10-2 m, thus being
detectable by modern geophysical instruments. Overall, these data suggest that the very
initial phases (less than one day, likely less than 1 hour) of a ground uplift phase at CF
might reflect magmatic processes and related ovrepressure occurring in a magmatic
reservoir. On the contrary, the subsequent and largest part of the uplift is likely related to
the response of the geothermal system, triggered by loss of gas from the magma into the
surrounding rocks. Contrasting information from CF's eruptive history indicates, however,
that pre-eruptive conditions may be characterized by a wide spectrum of different
scenarios. In fact, while the 1538 eruption was preceded by at least three months of
escalation of earthquake activity and ground motion, liquid-solid disequilibria for the wellstudied 4100 BP Agnano Monte Spina eruption suggest that magma arrival into a shallow
chamber occurred only a few tens of hours before the eruption. Therefore, additional
68
investigations, particularly on the modeling of rock rupture and dyke propagation and on
modeling of a larger spectrum of possible pre-eruptive conditions, is required before
drawing any conclusions about the type of geophysical signals which are expected in
association with awakening episodes. A further aspect deserving special attention regards
the unprecedented observation of Long-Period seismicity in association with the last
(2005-2006) bradiseismic crisis. If accurate locations of these events have already been
performed, additional analyses are required in order to clarify their source mechanism and
their significance into the larger framework of the volcano dynamics during awakening
episodes.
Task 2:
One of the most striking feature characterizing the last (2005-2006) unrest episode at CF
consists in the occurrence of sustained Long-Period (LP) seismic activity. As widely
recognized, this kind of signals most likely result from the oscillation of fluid-filled
fractures dynamically coupled with their hosting rocks. The quantitative modelling of these
events, therefore, assumes particular relevance for understanding the present dynamics of
the volcano. In such a context, questions which are still open regard: (1) To what extent the
waveform signature of these events is representative of the source process, rather than
being conditioned by propagation through shallow, soft materials? (2) Which kind of fluid
mixtures may depict acoustical properties comparable to those inferred from the seismic
analysis? (3) Which processes may lead to the repeated pressurization of the shallow
hydrothermal system? The above points will be addressed using extensive numerical
simulations of the dynamics of multiphase systems and wave propagation in complex,
heterogeneous materials. In particular, we’ll attempt simulations of 2D wave propagation
using velocity structures defined within the consortium (e.g., URs #1 and #9) aimed at
defining the medium’s response to elementary force systems, with the final goal of
unrevealing uniqueness and robustness of source mechanism determinations based on
waveform modelling. In addition, we'll perform parametric studies based on numerical
simulations of the dynamics of multiphase fluid mixtures, in order to assess the range of
variability of acoustical properties and the geophysical signals emerging from such
dynamics.
Task 3:
Our main objective for this task relies in the quantification and characterisation of the
dynamics of the plumbing and geothermal systems and of the geophysical signals (gravity
variations, ground deformations, seismicity) which are expected in response to transient
episodes of magma and fluid injection. These latter events are expected to affect both the
magma storage and hydrothermal systems, which will be treated separately.
(1) magma storage
We’ll perform numerical simulations of magma dynamics using GALES, a finite element
numerical code for the time-dependent 2D dynamics of multi-component compressible and
incompressible magma, which has been developed by some of the RU participants. The
conditions for the simulations will be defined together with the project consortium, and be
selected in order to be representative of possible new arrival of magma within the deep
reservoir at 8 km of depth (revealed through seismic tomography within project INGVDPC 2004-06 V3_2 – Campi Flegrei), and within possible small reservoirs at shallow
depth. The simulations will describe the time-space dependent dynamics of magma mixing
and convection, and time-space dependent evolution of relevant flow variables (e.g.,
velocity, pressure, gas volume fraction, etc.) within the magma chamber and along the
69
feeding dykes. The expected patterns of gravity change (free-air corrected) will be
determined by integrating in space the calculated time-dependent mass distributions. Timespace-dependent stress conditions computed at the magma-rock interface will be employed
as boundary conditions for the numerical simulations of 2D/3D rock elasto-dynamics,
taking into account rock heterogeneities (defined within the project consortium on the basis
of previous results on seismic tomography experiments), and real topography. Some of the
relevant system conditions (e.g., chamber size, depth, geometry, magma composition and
volatile content, etc., to be defined within the project consortium) will be varied in
parametric studies in order to ascertain their influence on the general dynamics. A further
objective consists in a significant advancement in developing a finite element approach
able to handle the dynamical coupling between the fluid and the hosting rocks.
(2) Hydrothermal system
Complex thermo-hydro-mechanical interactions between magmatic source, shallow
aquifers, and host rocks control the evolution of the hydrothermal system at CF. A change
in any of these elements modifies system conditions and may cause the generation of
detectable signals (due to changes in the distribution and composition of fluid phases, or to
altered pressure and temperature fields and rock properties). Modeling will be carried out
to investigate and quantify geochemical and geophysical signals, which may arise from the
evolution of the hydrothermal circulation, according to different scenarios. Observable
parameters will include gas composition, temperature, and discharge rate, gravity changes,
and rock deformation. The TOUGH2 multi-phase and multi-component geothermal
simulator (Pruess et al., 1999) will be used to simulate heat and fluid flow through
heterogeneous and fractured media. Observable parameters will be computed based on
simulation results. Different scenarios will be defined incorporating the recent most data
on CF (made available by last INGV-DPC project) and, when possible, taking into account
results from models describing the evolution of the magmatic system at depth.
1. Definition of relevant scenarios for the numerical simulations of magma and
hydrothermal dynamics, and refinement of existing conceptual models (to be
carried out in close cooperation with the project consortium)
2. First numerical simulations of new magma arrival and mixing in shallow
reservoirs; simulations of associated rock dynamics, and analysis of the produced
signals;
3. Simulations of hydrothermal circulation during “magmatic” unrest (due to changes
of the magmatic source), in heterogeneous, anisotropic and fractured media.
Analysis of related signals;
4. Synthetic seismograms for elementary source time functions accounting for
medium heterogeneity and topography.
1. Simulation of hydrothermal circulation during unrest associated with changes in the
porous matrix. Analysis of related signals.
2. Further numerical simulations of magmatic unrest and calculation of the associated
broadband ground displacement and gravity variations;
3. Definition of the relevant measurable parameters (amplitude, spectral content,
duration) associated with signals due to simulated magmatic and hydrothermal
unrest dynamics;
70
4. Moment-Tensor Inversion via full-waveform modelling for synthetic seismograms;
evaluation of the reliability of such procedures when medium heterogeneities are
not fully accounted for.
5. Prototype finite element numerical code for simulating the dynamics of 2-waycoupled fluids and rocks.
First Phase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
6800
0,00
9000
0,00
31000
0,00
0,00
16200
0,00
7000
0,00
70000
0,00
Totale
0,00
Second Phase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
6800
0,00
6000
0,00
26000
0,00
0,00
8000
0,00
5200
0,00
52000
0,00
Totale
0,00
71
Total
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
13600
0,00
15000
0,00
57000
0,00
0,00
24200
0,00
12200
0,00
1220000
0,00
Totale
0,00
EDUCATION: 1990: M.S., Geological Sciences, University of Firenze (full honours).
1997: PhD, Geophysics and Volcanology - University of Napoli.
EMPLOYMENT: 1991-1993: Research fellow at the University of Firenze, Earth
Sciences Dept.; 1997-1999:Post-doctoral Research fellow at the University of Salerno,
Dept. of Physics; 1999-2003: Research Geophysicist at the former Osservatorio
Vesuviano. 2003-present: Associate Professor (Primo Ricercatore) at the Italian National
Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), Osservatorio Vesuviano. Since
February 1st, 2008, at INGV, Department of Pisa.
FIELD EXPERIENCES: Conduction of more than 20 field experiments on the following
volcanoes and seismically active areas: Stromboli, Etna, Vesuvius, Volcano, Panarea
volcanoes (Italy); Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii, and Puget Sound area (US); Teide (Spain)
Deception Island (Antarctica) Fogo-Furnas, Sao Miguel Isl., Azores (Portugal). Nisyros
(Greece).
TUTORSHIPS: Tutorship of MS and PhD theses at the Universities of Salerno, Pisa,
Bologna, Catania (I); University of Azores (PT), University College Dublin (IE) ,
University of Cadiz (Spain), University of Granada (Spain).
PROJECTS: 2002-2005: INGV Principal Investigator of EU - 5th FP project ‘e-Ruption:
A Satellite Telecommunication and Internet-Based Seismic Monitoring System for
Volcanic Eruption Forecasting and Risk Management’. Funding 300 K Eur. 2004-2006:
UR Responsible of INGV-DPC project ‘Etna’. Funding 18 K Eur. 2005-2008: INGV
Principal Investigator of EU - 6th FP project ‘VOLUME’. Funding 745 K Eur. In addition,
he has participated to numerous (> 15) national (CNR, MIUR) and international (EU, NSF)
projects in the field of experimental seismology.
EDITORIAL ACTIVITY More than 50 reviews for the Journal of Geophysical
Research, Geophysical Research Letters, Tectonophysics, Journal of Volcanology and
Geothermal Research, Annals of Geophysics, Geophysical Journal International, Bulletin
of the Seismological society of America.
72
Longo, M. Vassalli, P. Papale , M. Barsanti, 2006. Numerical simulation of convection and
mixing in magma chambers replenished with CO2-rich magma. Geophysical Research
Letters, Vol. 33, doi: 10.1029/2006GL027760.
Longo, A.,, Barbato, D., Papale, P., Saccorotti, G., Barsanti, M. (2008). Numerical
simulation of the dynamics of fluid oscillations in a gravitationally unstable,
compositionally stratified fissure. Special volume of the Geological London Society (in
publication).
Nisii, V., Saccorotti, G., and Nielsen, S., (2007). Detailed analysis of wave propagation
beneath the Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy). Bull. Seism. Soc. Amer. 97, 440–456, doi:
10.1785/0120050207.
G. Saccorotti, S. Petrosino, F. Bianco, M. Castellano, D. Galluzzo, M. La Rocca, E. Del
Pezzo, L. Zaccarelli, P. Cusano, (2007). Seismicity associated with the 2004-2006
renewed ground uplift at Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy. Phys. Earth Plan. Inter., 165, 1424.
I. Lokmer, G.Saccorotti, B. Di Lieto, C.J. Bean, 2007. Temporal evolution of Long-Period
seismicity at Etna Volcano, Italy, and its relationships with the 2004-2005 eruption.
Earth Plan. Sc. Lett., 266, 205-220.
73
RU V1/07
Responsible: Roberto Scarpa, Professore Ordinario, Centro Interdipartimentale di Scienze
Ambientali, University of Salerno, email: [email protected], tel. 089.96 5248, fax:
089.96 3303.
RU Composition:
Scientific
coordinator
Position
Institution
Roberto Scarpa
Prof. Ordinario
Università
Salerno
Participant
Position
Institution
Luca Crescentini
Antonella
Amoruso
Pierdomenico
Romano
Luigia Cristiano
Alan T.Linde
Prof. Associato
Ricercatore
Univ. of Salerno
Univ. of Salerno
Selwyn I. Sacks
Senior
Researcher
Roger Bilham
Full Professor
Assegnista
ricerca
Dottoranda
Senior
Researcher
Man/ months/ 1st
year
of 3
di Univ.of Salerno
Univ.of Salerno
Carnegie
Institution
of
Washington,
USA
Carnegie
Institution
of
Washington,
USA
University
of
Colorado, USA
Man/ months/ 1st
year
Man/months/ 2 nd
year
3
Man/ months/ 2nd
year
4
4
4
4
3
3
2
1
2
1
1
1
2
2
The RU is composed by two subunits: the former mainly aimed to the development of
hardware and quantitative data analysis, and the latter (L.Crescentini and A.Amoruso)
aimed to joint data inversion, in collaboration with the group coordinated by M.Bonafede
(RU#8).
Task #2
Subunit #1
The University of Salerno has developed, in collaboration with Vesuvius Observatory and
Carnegie Institution, a project aimed to developing a wide band geophysical monitoring
system in the volcanic area Vesuvius-Campi Flegrei mainly formed by borehole
dilatometers and broad-band seismometers. This system has allowed to monitor strain
anomalies related to the mini uplift episode occurred in Campi Flegrei during 2004-2006
(Scarpa et al., 2007). The research center CISA (University of Salerno) has moreover a
74
plan to integrate such a system with three long baseline multisensor tiltmeters and carbon
fiber strainmeters, whih will be installed during spring 2008 in some tunnels located in the
central part of Campi Flegrei. This is a cooperative project with University of Colorado,
USA. The main advantage of long baseline instruments is due to their long term stability
whereas the disadvantage is the frequency band, starting from several minutes and their
lower sensitivity (compared to borehole equipments) which is of the order of
nanorad/nanostrain.
The objectives are to contribute to the quantitative definition of parameters useful to define
the present unrest and the short- and medium-term precursors of volcanic activity. The
activity of the RU is also to improve the broad-band seismic network with a plan to install
additional four broad-band seismometers in the CF area.
Subunit #2
High-precision deformation and gravity data can discriminate between magma intrusions
and instabilities of the hydrothermal system. Near real-time inversion of data is essential
for Civil Protection purposes.
In the frame of the 2004-2006 INGV/DPC project V4, we (V4/RU4) developed a fast
robust numerical code able to invert deformation and gravity data for extended horizontal
circular cracks and very small vertical spheroids embedded in elastic layered media. We
have shown that neglecting crustal layering in the inversion of deformation and gravity
data could often lead to an underestimation of the intrusion density (Crescentini &
Amoruso, 2007) and applied the code to the Campi Flegrei caldera (Amoruso et al., 2007).
We compute deformation due to inflation of a small mass-less pressurized vertical spheroid
using a weighted combination of an isotropic point source (IPS) and a compensated linear
vertical dipole (CLVD). Green's functions for ground displacements due to an IPS and a
CLVD in a layered medium are calculated using code from Wang et al., 2006.
We approximate a finite horizontal circular crack (FC) using a regular distribution of point
cracks over the FC mid-plane. This approximation is valid if source depth to radius
exceeds 0.8.
The misfit function is minimized using different global optimization (Adaptive Simulated
Annealing, Neighbourhood Algorithm) and uncertainty estimation techniques
(bootstrapping, Neighbourhood Algorithm Bayes).
We propose to improve the code adding additional deformation sources (finite prolate
spheroids, approximated by a linear distribution of double forces and centers of dilatation
between the focal points, and small triaxial ellipsoids of any orientation; finite horizontal
ellipsoidal cracks) and the use of Genetic Algorithms as global optimization technique.
The code will be tested against results from Finite Element modelling and applied to the
Campi Flegrei data in full cooperation with UR8.
Contribute by the RU to the general Project products First Phase
•
•
Quantitative analysis of seismic and geodetic data, with particular attention to the
borehole dilatometers, with particular reference to the stress/strain diffusion
phenomena occurring in the acquifer.
Development of a computer code for the joint inversion of deformation and gravity
data, taking into account caldera layering and several types of finite sources.
Contribute by the RU to the general Project products Second Phase
•
Quantitative analysis of seismic and geodetic data, with particular attention to the
borehole dilatometers and to the long baseline strainmeters and tiltmeters, with
75
•
•
particular reference to the stress/strain diffusion phenomena occurring in the
acquifer.
Joint inversion of deformation and gravity data, taking into account caldera
layering and several types of finite sources.
Quantitative definition of the unrest parameters and short- and medium-term
precursory phenomena.
Financial request (Euro)
Prima fase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
3400
00,00
0,00
1000
0,00
10900
0,00
Totale
1700
0,00
117000700170
,00
17000
170000,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
Seconda fase
Categoria di spesa
0,00
4600
0,00
9500
0,00
1000
0,00
5600
0,00
2300
0,00
23000
0,00
Totale
76
0,00
Totale
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
8000
0,00
9500
0,00
2000
0,00
16500
0,00
4000
0,00
40000
0,00
Totale
0,00
Curriculum of the Scientific Coordinator
Roberto Scarpa received his degree in Physics from Naples University, Italy, in 1974. In
the period 1974-1985 he was a researcher at Osservatorio Vesuviano, Naples. In the period
1985-1987 he was Associate Professor of Geophysics at University "La Sapienza", Rome,
and during 1987-2001 was is Full Professor of Geophysics at University of L'Aquila. Since
2001 he is Professor of Earth Physics at the University of Salerno. He is responsible for
several research projects regarding volcano and earthquake monitoring and modeling of
geophysical data. He has been and is consultant for several national and international
research organizations, including Italian CNR, Council of Europe, UNESCO, European
Union, IAVCEI, Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso (INFN) and Istituto Nazionale di
Geofisica e Vulcanologia. He is co-author of more than 150 scientific papers and 4 books.
Since 2005 he is Director of CISA (Centro Interdipartimentale di Scienze Ambientali at the
University of Salerno. R.Scarpa has been nominated referees of many national programs
sponsored by Italian National Research Council, Ministry of Education and Research,
Antartica Project, Gruppo Nazionale Difesa Vulcani, Gruppo Nazionale Difesa Terremoti
and projects requested by Italian Universities. Referee of many international Scientific
Journals such as, among others, Science, Nature, Journal of Geophysical Research,
Geophysical Research Letters, Geophysical Journal International, Bulletin of
Seismological Society of America, Journal of Seismology. On the international field has
been member of the Commission of Experts of Council of Europe, European Union. He
also evaluated some research programs submitted to National Science Foundation and
French National Research Council.
SCIENTIFIC CONTRIBUTION:
(1) Development of seismic monitoring and geophysical data analysis systems.
(2) Structure study including seismic tomography of areas of geodynamical interest in
Italy.
(5) Seismotectonics and seismic source parameter modeling of large Italian earthquakes.
77
(4) Strong motion analysis of seismic waveforms
(5) Seismic source studies on active volcanoes of Italy.
Most significant 5 publications since 2003
Amoruso, A., L. Crescentini, and C. Fidani (2004). Effects of crustal layering on source
parameter inversion from coseismic geodetic data, Geophys. J. Int., 159, 353-364, doi:
10.1111/j.1365-246X.2004.02389.x.
Crescentini, L., and A. Amoruso (2007). Effects of crustal layering on the inversion of
deformation and gravity data in volcanic areas: An application to the Campi Flegrei
caldera, Italy, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L09303, doi:10.1029/2007GL029919.
Di Lieto B., Saccorotti G., Zuccarello L., La Rocca M., Scarpa R., 2007. Continuous
tracking of volcanic tremor at Mount Etna, Italy. Geophys.J.Int., 169, 699-705,
doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03316.x
Scarpa R., Amoruso A., Crescentini L., Romano P., De Cesare W., Martini M., Scarpato
G., Linde A.T., Sacks S.I., 2007. New borehole strain system detects uplift at Campi
Flegrei., EOS Trans.A.G.U., 88(18), 197-203.
Amoruso, L. Crescentini, A. T. Linde, I. S. Sacks,R. Scarpa, and P.Romano, 2007, A
Horizontal Crack in a Layered Structure Satisfies Deformation for the 2004-2006 Uplift of
Campi Flegrei, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L22313, doi:10.1029/2007GL031644.
78
RU V1/08
Responsible: Maurizio Bonafede, Professore Ordinario, Dipartimento di Fisica – Settore
Geofisica, Viale Berti-Pichat 8, 40127 Bologna. [email protected] tel: 0512095017, fax: 051-2095058.
RU Composition:
Position
Institution
Man/Months
1st phase
Man/Months
2nd phase
Maurizio BONAFEDE Professor
University of Bologn 3
3
Participants
Position
Institution
M.Elina
BELARDINELLI
Claudio FERRARI
Professor
Man/Months
2nd phase
Francesco
MACCAFERRI
Carlo GIUNCHI
Elisa TRASATTI
Man/Months
1st phase
3
Post Doc
Research Ass.
PhD Student University of Bologn 3
12
Researcher
Researcher
1
0
INGV-Rm1
INGV-Rm1
1
0
3
During the last decade our knowledge of the underground structure within the Campi Flegrei
caldera greatly improved thanks to geological and geophysical investigations (seismic
tomography studies, in particular); moreover, the kinematics of ground deformation is much
better constrained today than it was in the past, thanks to the implementation of different
networks of classical geodetic monitoring (including levelling surveys, tilmeters, EDM) and
the increased accuracy of space techniques, (GPS and SAR). Realistic mathematical models
have been recently developed which take into account the elastic heterogeneities of the
underground structure when modelling the observed ground deformation and the residual
gravity changes. The progress expected from such studies are particularly relevant if they are
included in inversion schemes devoted to infer the characteristics of the deformation source,
since (1) the geometrical parameters of the source (its depth, “shape”, dimensions) are very
sensitive to the presence of shallow heterogeneities; (2) once the source geometry is known,
the density of the material entering the source may be inferred, and this may allow
discriminating between deformation episodes due to changes of the hydro-thermal system and
those due to a strictly magmatic intrusion. Moreover, the assumption is generally made in
physical volcanology that a pressurized cavity is responsible for the observed deformation,
while this is not the most general source mechanism, even for a point-like source.
Methods
The elastic heterogeneities inferred from seismic tomography will be employed in two
complementary computational schemes: the former (employed mainly from RU7, in
collaboration with this RU8) is based on Wang et al., 2006 semi-analytical code, which
79
provides the static Green’s function for the displacement field in a horizontally layered halfspace with flat free surface. This method, although based on a simplified representation of the
underground structure, has the advantage of allowing fast evaluation of the displacement due
to an assigned source, so that inversions may be rapidly performed at the onset of an unrest
episode, to retrieve source parameters from observed data (for more details see description
provided by RU7). The second computational scheme, which will be cross-checked with the
former one, is based on the Finite Element Method which allows taking into account the
realistic topography and the 3-D vertical and lateral heterogeneities unveiled by seismic
tomography. Innovative results obtained during the previous INGV-DPC program now allow
employing the FEM results within an inversion scheme implemented specifically for the
Campi Flegrei region, to retrieve the location, the depth, and the full moment tensor
describing the source mechanism with complete generality. Once the heterogeneities of the
elastic structure are properly accounted for, the data provided by geodetic and gravimetric
networks may be used to increase the resolving power of models to detect complexities of the
source mechanism. To this end, no a-priori assumptions (realistic, maybe, but often arbitrary)
will be made regarding the source model (such as a pressurized cavity), by making resort to
the stress glut concept (Backus and Mulcahy 1976) which incorporates into the moment
tensor any deviation from perfect elasticity (such as the presence of magmatic fluids within
the source volume and plastic deformation around it). For instance, a particularly unrealistic
assumption common to present source models is that mass conservation is not accounted for
(meaning that the intrusion mass is assumed to come from infinite distance). The increased
accuracy and spatial coverage of geodetic data, together with the increased resolving power
of deformation models, will most probably allow addressing the problem of deep magma
origin. More generally, while a generic moment tensor can be always decomposed into an
isotropic plus a deviatoric component, it cannot be always interpreted in terms of a
pressurized cavity; in such a case, relaxation of deviatoric stress must be included in the
source mechanism, which may be due to plastic relaxation or to shear failure over fault
surfaces. As a consequence, the volume increase at the source may be inferred univocally but
the separation between deformation due to a pressurized cavity and that due to shear failure or
plastic deformation is not unique, in general, and efforts will be made to characterize the two
contributions within plausible ranges.
Contribute by the RU to the general Project products 1st phase
Joint inversion of geodetic (levelling, EDM, GPS, SAR) data should allow to infer:
1. the location and depth of the deformation source, unbiased by neglect of the
heterogeneities of the elastic underground structure;
2. source mechanism, given in terms of the complete moment tensor producing the
observed surface deformation;
3. interpretation of the source mechanism in terms of tensional (pressurized cavity) and
shear dislocations;
4. estimates of maximum and minimum volume of the intrusion;
Contribute by the RU to the general Project products 2nd phase
Joint inversion of geodetic and gravimetric data should allow to infer:
5. multiple source models considering a deflating deep source and a shallow inflating source
which account explicitly for mass conservation;
6. density changes due to compressibility of rocks surrounding the source;
7. inference of intrusion density from measured gravity changes and their interpretation in
terms of magmatic vs. hydrothermal origin;
80
8. estimates of maximum and minimum mass of the intrusion;
9. evaluation of stress changes induced by the deformation source and their implications for
seismicity induced in the surrounding medium according to the rate-state dependent
friction law.
Tabella 1. Piano Finanziario (Euro).
Prima fase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
4000
0,00
8000
0,00
0,00
6000
0,00
2000
0,00
0,00
20000
0,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
Totale
Seconda fase
Categoria di spesa
0,00
5000
0,00
20000
0,00
0,00
2000
0,00
3000
0,00
30000
0,00
Totale
0,00
81
Totale
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
9000
0,00
28000
0,00
0,00
8000
0,00
5000
0,00
0,5000000
0,00
Totale
0,00
Maurizio Bonafede, born in Rome 23/04/1949, is chair professor of Solid Earth
Geophysics since 1987 at the Faculty of Sciences of University of Bologna. Since 1999 he
is Coordinator of “Dottorato di Ricerca” in Geophysics established at the Department of
Physics of the University of Bologna, in consortium with the University of Napoli
“Federico II”, the University of “Roma Tre” and “Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e
Vulcanologia”.
Prof. Bonafede has been and still is scientific responsible of several Research projects
funded by MIUR (Ministery of Education University and Research), by CNR (National
Research Council), and by the European Union in the framework of the project
“Environment and Climate”.
Prof. Bonafede has been in the past decade member of the Scientific Council of INGV
(1995-2000), of the Directive Council of Osservatorio Vesuviano (1993-2001) and Gruppo
Nazionale per la Vulcanologia (1996-1999). Presently he is member of the Advisory
Council of MIUR for the reformation of university degrees. He is also member of the
Committee of experts for the evaluation of Research projects submitted to MIUR for the
Development and Upgrading of Research Activities.
The research activity of M. Bonafede concentrates in the Physic-mathemathical modelling
of geodynamic processes, such as deformation, seismicity and gravity changes induced by
seismic and volcanic activity, theoretical studies of fracture mechanics applied to
modelling earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, the role of fluids and related thermo-poroelastic effects in volcanic or geothermal areas.
In these fields prof. Bonafede published more than 120 papers, mostly on peer reviewed
journals and promoted the scientific education of several young researchers up to their
complete autonomy.
82
Trasatti, E., Giunchi, C. and Bonafede, M., 2003. Effects of topography and rheological
layering on ground deformation in volcanic regions, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 122, 89
- 110.
Trasatti, E., Giunchi, C. and Bonafede, M., 2005. Structural and rheological constraints on
source depth and overpressure estimates at Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy, J. Volcanol.
Geotherm. Res., 144, 105-118.
Bonaccorso, A., Cianetti, S., Giunchi, C., Trasatti, E., Bonafede, M., Boschi, E., 2005.
Analytical and 3D numerical modeling of Mt. Etna (Italy) volcano inflation, Geophys. J.
Int., 163 (2), 852-862. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2005.02777.x
Zencher, F., Bonafede, M., Stefansson, R., 2006. Near-lithostatic pore pressure at
seismogenic depths: a thermo-poro-elastic model, Geophys. J. Int., 166, 1318-1334, doi:
10.1111/j.1365-246X.2006.03069.x
Trasatti, E., Bonafede, M., 2007. Gravity changes due to overpressure sources in 3D
heterogeneous media: application to Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy, Ann. Geophys., XX, in
press.
Bonafede, M., Ferrari, C., Maccaferri, F. and Stefansson R., 2007. On the preparatory
processes of the M6.6 earthquake of June 17th, 2000, in Iceland, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34,
L24305, doi:10.1029/2007GL031391.
83
RU V1/09
Responsible: Edoardo Del Pezzo, Geofisico Ordinario, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e
Vulcanologia-Sezione di Napoli Osservatorio Vesuviano, Via Diocleziano, 328, 80124
Napoli, email: [email protected], tel: 081-6108324, fax: 081-6108323.
RU Composition:
Position
Institution
Edoardo Del Pezzo
Geofisico
Ordinario
INGV-NA
Participants
Position
Institution
Antonio Rovelli
Dirigente
Ricerca
Tecnologo
Professore
Associato
Ricercatore
Tecnologo
Primo
tecnologo
Primo
Ricercatore
Dottorando di
ricerca Unibo
Assegnista di
ricerca
CTER
Cat D Tecnico
Primo
ricercatore
Ricercatore
PhD Stud.
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Tecnico
INGV-Roma
1
INGV-Roma
UniBA
1
1
1
1
INGV-NA
INGV-NA
INGV-NA
3
3
3
3
3
3
INGV-NA
2
2
INGV-NA
10
0
INGV-NA
3
3
INGV-NA
INGV-NA
INGV – CT
3
2
0
3
2
0
INGV-CT
INGV/UniCt
INGV – CT
INGV – CT
INGV – CT
INGV – CT
0
0
2
1
1
2
0
0
2
1
1
2
Giuliano Milana
Agata Siniscalchi
Mario La Rocca
Simona Petrosino
Mario Castellano
Francesca Bianco
Luca De Siena
Lucia Zaccarelli
Paola Cusano
Danilo Galluzzo
Domenico Patané
Mimmo Palano
Valentina Bruno
Salvo Gambino
Salvatore Alparone
Mario Mattia
Salvatore Rapisarda
Man/Months
1st phase
Man/Months
2nd phase
3
Man/Months
1st phase
3
Man/Months
2nd phase
1
Task 1 , Task 2
a) The structure of Campi Flegrei Caldera has been investigated using both velocity
tomography and attenuation tomography techniques (in Geophysical exploration of the
84
Campi Flegrei (Southern Italy) Caldera interiors: Data, Methods and Results, Edited by A.
Zollo, P. Capuano and M. Corciulo, F. Giannini Editor, Naples). Whereas the velocity
structure results quite well resolved, some doubts about the attenuation structure still
remain. To better address this last topic it seems necessary to obtain a more resolved
structure, based on a methodology which results independent of site and radiation pattern.
b) At present, a precise definition of the seismic background is necessary to establish:
1) the seismic energy quantification [VT, LP and noise]. This problem is still widely
unresolved, due to the lack of a continuous background seismicity at an almost constant
rate. This is an important point for Civil Protection
2) the noise level and the time-space distribution of the seismic noise energy (for a precise
definition of the Magnitude thresholds and of the detection thresholds of the seismic
signals possibly generated during the unrest). Also this problem (still unresolved) is
another important point to address for Civil Protection purposes.
3) the quantification of the seismic precursors accompanying the unrest phases is generally
based on the measurement of SWS (Shear wave splitting) parameters, CWI (Coda wave
interferometry) velocity variations and GFN (Green Functions between station couples
from the cross-correlation).
4) Experimental constraints to achieve points 1), 2) and 3) are the measurement space time
structure of the seismic noise, and the utilization of multi-parametric sensors
(accelerometer, tilt-meter and broad-band velocimeters)
5) The seismic background at Campi Flegrei can be compared with that measured at
Vulcano, where a new modern array of 5 PCM5800 stations equipped with Lennartz
Le3D20s sensors is in function since 2006.
Methods
a) Structure of Campi Flegrei.
A three-dimensional, multiple resolution, P and S wave attenuation tomography of Campi
Flegrei will be obtained with the ordinary spectral slope (SLM) and with multiple
measurements of coda-normalized S-wave spectra (Coda Normalization Method or CNM)
of local small magnitude earthquakes on a large dataset of 2559 waveforms. An accurate
evaluation of the existing results will be performed via the joint interpretation of
independent geophysical models (such as velocity, attenuation, resistivity and density) in
the same areas. This stage will be quantitatively approached by statistical methods of
correlation among multiple post-inversion physical properties models. The end goal is to
define a number of significant classes corresponding to region of high correlation. Within
each class the founded correlation then could permit to infer lithological and
physical/geochemical information.
b) The definition of the seismic background
1 – The seismic energy quantification.
The quantification of the seismic energy in volcanic regions is of great importance to
better understanding of the dynamics of volcanoes. The amount of released energy and its
variation during seismic crises can be assumed to be an indicator of the source processes.
The problem of quantifying seismic energy is particularly crucial in densely populated
areas, where the earthquake magnitude is one of the parameters used for the definition of
the alert levels by the Civil Protection.
In this framework, the calibration of Local (Ml) and Moment (Mw) magnitude scales for the
area of the Campi Flegrei will be performed.
2 – The noise level and its space-time distribution.
85
Systematic analysis of amplitude and spectral characteristics of the seismic noise will be
performed on long records of data for any seismic stations installed in the Campi Flegrei
area. The background noise characteristics include the description of changes in spectral
amplitude due to any (recognizable) external effect. Tidal forces are easily recognizable
even tough their effects on the high frequency seismic noise are still under debate. Weather
storms associated with the bay local sea waves are also taken into account.
Moreover, an experiment will be carried out in the whole area to measure the space-time
characteristics of the spectral properties of the seismic noise. The correlation between
seismic noise and sea wavefield will be studied by using the signals recorded by a
hydrophone and by a mareograph installed in the gulf of Pozzuoli. This analysis will allow
a precise characterization of the noise background and its daily and weekly variation
ranges at any station site. The combined analysis of local seismic events, of both natural
and artificial origin, will yield a map of the detection threshold in the area. This last is
particularly useful in the Civil Protection practice
3 – The quantification of the seismic precursors
We focus on seismic precursors involving a temporal stress variation, i.e. on those
parameters directly related to the amount of stress acting on the investigated area.
Accordingly, we individuate in the Shear wave splitting (SWS) and the Coda wave
interferometry (CWI) the measurable indicators of the stress changes. In repeating these
two parameter estimates at later times we might delineate the temporal evolution of the
anisotropic features. Both methodologies derive from optics and exploit wave properties to
describe the medium characteristics. The application of these techniques to doublet events
ensures that the variations observed may be related to temporal changes of the medium
along the ray path, excluding any spatial effect. Moreover, in order to easily recover
relative temporal velocity variations of less than 0.1%, we also make use of the
reproducibility properties of the random seismic wavefields recorded in the area (GFN
method). The basic idea is that a cross-correlation of random seismic wavefields such as
coda or noise recorded at two receivers yields the Green function, i.e., the impulse
response of the medium at one receiver as if there was a source at the other. This property
has been used for imaging the crust at regional scales and, more recently, has been applied
to infer the internal structure of the Piton de la Fournaise volcano at La R´eunion island.
The applications in volcano seismology of SWS, CWI and GFN highlighted their power
resolution in detecting even small stress changes.
4 – experimental constraints
At present 3 multi-sensor stations operate in the Campi Flegrei area. They include broad
band seismometers and accelerometers. During the year 2008 some of the broad band
seismic stations will be improved by the installation of an accelerometer or a tiltmeter in
the same site. More stations will be deployed equipped with broad band seismometer
(Geotech KS2000, 120 s) and accelerometers (Kinemetrics FBA ES-T) or tiltmeters
(Applied Geomechanics mod. 702).
The use of different sensors characterized by high sensitivity (broad band seismometers),
high dynamic range (accelerometers) and response unlimited at low frequencies
(tiltmeters), allow an optimal recording of any kind of seismic signals usually observed in
volcanic environment, and help in the definition of the seismic background.
c) A comparison with Vulcano island.
Vulcano is an hydrothermal system in some sense similar to that present at Campi Flegrei.
A comparison between the seismicity in these two system is straightforward for the
understanding the dynamics underlying.
86
An authomatical classification of the event types at Vulcano, using classification
algorithms already utilized for Etna and Stromboli, will be performed, in order to assess
the space-time seismic background pattern. This pattern will be correlated with the
geochemical background pattern. Further analysis will deal with Vulcano LP source
moment tensor analysis, in order to correlate the source mechanisms of the seismic events
at Campi Flegrei with those present at Vulcano. The velocity and strain field will be
studied through GPS data, and analysis of their time changes will be performed. Ground
deformation in the zone of the cone will be studied using analytical methods.
•
•
•
•
Attenuation structure of Campi Flegrei Caldera through attenuation tomography
Preparation of the methods to investigate the noise structure and first applications.
Experiment of seismic noise measurement at Campi Flegrei
Classification of the event types at Vulcano.
•
•
•
•
•
Lithological structure of Campi Flegrei Caldera through cluster analysis applied to
geophysical imaging.
The noise structure at Flegrei.
LP source mechanism at Vulcano. Time changes of seismic and deformation
parameters.
Detectability, nature and measure of the possible seismic precursors during the
Unrest phase .
A map illustrating the degree of detectability of the seismic events (minimum
magnitude, event type), based on the knowledge of the noise structure.
Tabella 1. Piano Finanziario (Euro)
Prima fase
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
3794
0,00
9000
0,00
5250
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
23143
0,00
4113
0,00
45300
0,00
Totale
0,00
87
Seconda fase
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
3657
0,00
8800
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
1000
21250
0,00
0,00
5520
0,00
4023
0,00
0,00
44250
0,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
7451
0,00
17800
0,00
26500
0,00
Totale
Totale
Categoria di spesa
0,00
29663
0,00
8136
0,00
89550
0,00
Totale
0,00
Born in Naples, Italy, on march 16,1951. Nationality: Italian
Education.
· Degree in Physics, July 1974, (cum laude, thesis in Geophysics) from University of
Naples.
Positions held
· Researcher (Collaboratore Tecnico Professionale) at International Institute of Volcanology
- CNR ,Catania. October 1976-March, 1981
· Researcher (Collaboratore Tecnico Professionale) at Istituto per la Geofisica della
Litosfera - CNR, Milano March, 1981-July, 1982
88
· Researcher (Ricercatore) at Osservatorio Vesuviano .Ercolano, Napoli July 1982-April,
1987
· Associate professor of Seismology. University of Catania April 1987-November, 1990
· Associate professor of Geophysics. University of Salerno. November 1990-November,
1997
· Research Professor (Geofisico Straordinario) at Vesuvius Observatory, Naples. November
1997 - November, 2000
· Full Research Professor (Geofisico Ordinario) at Vesuvius Observatory, Naples.
November 2000 - today.
Scientific contribution
· Seismological monitoring of active volcanoes. Observations on Lipari-Vulcano, Etna,
Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, Teide, Deception
· Seismic wave propagation in heterogeneous structures. Measurements of seismic
attenuation and separation of Intrinsic-Q from Scattering-Q in tectonically active zones and in
volcanic zones. Studies on propagation of the volcanic tremor. Velocity- attenuation- and
scattering-tomography.
· Array seismology on volcanoes. Wavefield composition and source location for tremor
and Long Period seismic events.
· Seismic risk. Site response studies.
Del Pezzo, E., Bianco, F. and G. Saccorotti (2004) Changes in the coda decay rate and shear
wave splitting parameters associated with seismic swarms at Mt. Vesuvius, Italy. Bull.
Seism. Soc. Am. 94, 2, 439-452
Danilo Galluzzo, Edoardo Del Pezzo, Mario La Rocca, Simona Petrosino (2004) Peak
Ground Acceleration produced by local earthquakes in volcanic areas of Campi Flegrei
and Mt. Vesuvius. Annals of Geophysics vol. 47, no.4, pp.1377-1389, Aug 2004
Anna Tramelli, Edoardo Del Pezzo, Francesca Bianco, Enzo Boschi. 3-D scattering image of
the Campi Flegrei caldera (Southern Italy). New hints on the position of the old caldera
rim. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors.Volume: 155, Issue: 3-4, May 16, 2006,
pp. 269-280
Del Pezzo, E., Bianco, F., De Siena, L., Zollo, A. Small scale shallow attenuation structure at
Mt. Vesuvius, Italy. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors Volume: 157, Issue: 3-4,
August 31, 2006, pp. 257-268
G. Saccorotti, S. Petrosino, F. Bianco, M. Castellano, D. Galluzzo, M. La Rocca, E. Del
Pezzo, L. Zaccarelli and P. Cusano (2007) Seismicity associated with the 2004-2006
renewed ground uplift at Campi Flegrei Caldera, Italy. PEPI, 165, 14-24
89
90
PROJECT V2 – PAROXYSM
91
92
Project V2 - PAROXYSM
Definition of expected precursors for major explosions, paroxysms
and effusive eruptions at Stromboli volcano
Coordinators:
Alessandro Aiuppa, Università di Palermo, Via Archirafi 36, Palermo, Italy,
[email protected];
Antonella Bertagnini, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Via
della Faggiola 32, Pisa, Italy, [email protected];
Sonia Calvari, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Catania, Piazza
Roma 2, Catania, Italy, [email protected];
Objectives
Although mainly of low violence, the activity of Stromboli volcano is characterized by the
periodic occurrence of major eruptive events, lava flows, and real paroxysms. Such events
occur with a frequency of a few per year (major events) to a few per century (paroxysms).
During such events the risk level close to the volcano enormously increases, and the
volcano activity represents a danger for inhabitants and for the many tourists who
frequently crowd the island. The paroxysms occurred in 2003 and 2007 represent for the
scientific community case studies of great relevance for understanding the dynamics
associated to such events. Particularly, the event of April 5th, 2003, has clearly shown the
destructive potential of the volcano. Besides major events and paroxysms, lava flows
sometimes mark changes in the usual volcano activity, often representing phases of
transition in volcanic activity and possibly anticipating the occurrence of paroxysms.
The aim of this project is that of understanding and recognising short term precursors
of explosive and effusive eruptions at Stromboli.
a. Integrated investigation and quantitative analysis of signals recorded from
terrestrial and satellite observation systems, and of the characteristics of the
products of the eruptive activity.
b. Investigation of the relationships between effusive and explosive activity, also
based on historical data.
c. Identification of patterns of monitored quantities, indicative of an increase of the
probability of occurrence of a volcano crisis, and evaluation of possible external
triggers of the explosive/effusive activity.
d. Physico-mathematical modelling and numerical simulation of magmatic processes,
and of the space-time relationships with the recorded signals.
e. Realization of an integrated multidisciplinary allert system (prototype) similar to
the one at points e and f of project V1 “UNREST”. Such a system should employ
both data from the observation/monitoring network and from models and
simulations, and allow a real time estimate of the probability of occurrence of a
major eruption, a paroxysm, or a lava flow eruption.
93
Espected products
•
•
•
•
•
•
Analysis and definition of space-time patterns of the recorded signals with
relationship to the occurrence of major eruptiosn, paroxysms, and lava flow
eruptions.
Definition of the relationships between pre- and syn-eruptive volcanic processes
and signals recorded by the monitoring network.
Numerical simulations of eruptive processes, with special reference to the ascent
of deep gas-rich magma.
Prototype of an integrated and multidisciplinary alert system, for the short-term
evaluation of the occurrence of major explosions/paroxysms or lava flows.
Feasibility study, in agreement with DPC, for the installation of the prototype at
“DPC Centro Funzionale”.
In the last 15 years an increasing number of volcanological and petrological researches
have allowed to substantially improve our knowledge of the fundamental aspects of the
behaviour of Stromboli volcano, such as structure of the plumbing system, composition of
feeding magmas, dynamics of magma ascent, and eruption. In particular, it has been
highlighted that the present state of activity is the result of the interplay between two
magmas having the same bulk composition but differing in crystal and volatile contents,
and having contrasting density and viscosity. The persistent mild strombolian activity and
lava effusions are fed by a degassed, high-porphyritic magma (hereafter referred to as HP
magma), stored within the uppermost part of the plumbing system. On the other hand, the
eruption of highly vesicular pumices during major explosions and paroxysms claims for
the existence of volatile-rich (up to 3-4 wt. %), low-porphyritic magmas (hereafter referred
to as LP magma) in the deep plumbing system. The assessment of the pre-eruptive H2O
and CO2 dissolved contents in LP magmas has indicated that the latter originate at a
lithostatic pressure of 200-300 MPa, therefore suggesting a magma storage zone located at
~7.5-11 km depth. During the persistent activity, the LP magma refills the shallow HP
magma body and supplies the gas bubbles necessary to sustain strombolian explosions.
Mineralogical, geochemical and textural features of HP products have provided evidences
for the refilling of the HP magma body, possibly occurring in the form of repeated and
discrete arrivals of LP melts in the shallow system, thus promoting efficient and dynamic
water degassing, magma crystallization and magma mixing. The fact that the volume of
gas emitted during permanent activity at the summit craters is much larger than that
potentially contributed by degassing of erupted pyroclasts suggests that a large fraction of
degassed and denser HP magma is recycled back into the conduit, likely promoting a sort
of “lava lamp convection” (e.g., with HP blebs sinking back down through the conduit).
Sudden transfers of large volume of LP magmas toward the surface have been instead
proposed as the triggers for the generation of major explosions and paroxysms. Major
explosions result in blasts lasting tenths of seconds to minutes, which cause the ballistic
fallout of metre-sized bombs and blocks up to several hundred metres from the craters, as
well as scattered showers of lapilli and ash on the volcano slopes. Paroxysms are the most
energetic and damaging. They consist of several successive explosions lasting for hours or
days and ejecting ballistic bombs and blocks over the entire island associated with showers
of lapilli and ash. The involvement of primitive melts in large-scale paroxysms (e.g., 1930)
is clearly testified by the presence of Mg-rich olivine crystals hosting primitive CaO-rich
94
melt inclusions. This suggests direct link between large-scale paroxysms and ascent of
primitive melts refilling the storage zone where the LP magma(s) resides and crystallizes
weeks or days before the eruption. In contrast, primitive Mg-rich olivines are typically
absent in pumices erupted in April 5, 2003 (and in recent major explosions), albeit volatile
contents in melt inclusions still suggest a triggering mechanism initiated at a pressure
>240Mpa. The high explosivity of paroxysmal events is related to an excess of pressure
due to incomplete equilibration of the magmatic foam (LP magma) during its rapid ascent.
Such a mechanism would eventually imply a high volume ratio between gas and melt and
possibly the existence of a bubble-rich layer of basaltic melt in the pressure range of 200300 MPa, although this hypothesis must be confirmed. The respective role of magma and
gas in triggering the paroxysmal eruptions was recently questioned, and a model was
proposed in which the gas is the driving force of most of the paroxysmal events.
Accordingly, gas bubbles would be able to carry up primitive melts and crystals and bring
them rapidly to surface. In addition, a possible phreatomagmatic trigger of the April 5
2003 event has been suggested, and related to the presence of a shallow aquifer in the
summit of the volcano, which might have been modified in size and shape during the 2007
eruption due to large summit collapses.
Stromboli eruptions in 2002-2003 and 2007, and particularly the dramatic events
following the December 30, 2002 tsunami and the paroxysmal explosions of April 5, 2003
and March 15, 2007, have motivated a significant improvement of the geophysical and
geochemical networks on the island, and the development and application of new
techniques of volcano monitoring. Geophysical techniques have revealed particularly
valuable in real-time tracking the increase in explosive rate and seismicity that accompany
the transition from persistent strombolian activity to effusive eruptions. In particular, a
significant increasing trend of the RMS tremor amplitude (mostly in long period band) and
in the rate of occurrence of very long period (VLP) events has preceded the onset of the
2007 eruption of Stromboli. InSar interferometry has provided invaluable informations on
the dynamics and rates of the pre- and syn-eruptive mass displacements of the Sciara del
Fuoco depression. In addition, a significant increase in the number of landslides has been
detected by the seismic network a few days before the beginning of lava effusion. These
informations have been integrated with data from a network of visual, thermal and infrared
cameras, which have allowed to detect a significant pre-eruptive increase in the number
and intensity of explosions and in the maximum temperature recorded at the summit
craters. On the other hand, that most part of the volcanic edifice stands below seawater
hampers the use of geophysical prospecting methods in the monitoring of volcanic
processes whose source is the deep feeding system. This has precluded for a long time the
identification of mid-term geophysical precursors to paroxysms. Very recently, however, a
small inflation of the volcanic edifice and the anomalous occurrence of volcano-tectonic
earthquakes centred at a depth of 3-5 km b.s.l have been identified two days before the 15
March 2007 paroxysm by the post-event analysis of high-rate GPS and seismic data,
respectively. On the short-term, a large (few microradians) inflation of the edifice starting
~3-4 minutes before the 15 March 2007 explosion, detected in real-time by a network of
tiltmeters and borehole strainmeters and reflecting the pre-eruptive pressurization of the
shallow feeding system, has emphasized the potential to develop an early-warning system
for large explosions on the volcano. Geochemical techniques based on the monitoring of
the compositions of fluids (thermal waters, passive diffuse emissions from soils, volcanic
plumes and fumaroles) have also increasingly been used at Stromboli over the last decade.
Due to the dynamic and fast-changing nature of volcanic processes at open-conduit
volcanoes like Stromboli, enormous efforts have been spent in order to expand the
originally relatively minor number of chemical parameters that could be real-time
95
monitored at active volcanoes. Stromboli has thus become a natural laboratory where one
of the first integrated geochemical network has been developed, including, among others,
the real-time measurements of SO2 fluxes (by UV spectroscopy), CO2/SO2 ratios (by
MultiGAS technique), CO2 fluxes (by combination of the two afore-mentioned), CO2
fluxes from soil (by the accumulation chamber method), and soil and water temperature.
Since CO2 is the second most abundant volatile in Stromboli’s magmas, but also one of the
first to be degassed because of its low solubility in silicate melts at crustal conditions, its
measure has proved to be a key parameter to detect the pre-eruptive ascent and degassing
of magmas later involved in eruptions. The measurement of the CO2 flux from the soils in
the summit craters area has provided unambiguous signals of anomalous degassing before
the onset of both effusive events in 2002 and 2007; whilst a large tenfold increase of the
CO2 flux from the summit plume has been real-time measured for 7 consecutive days
before the March 15, 2007 paroxysm, and interpreted as a hint of the ascent and
accumulation of a CO2-rich magma (or large CO2-rich gas pockets) at depth. Despite
requiring often time-consuming laboratory analysis, the measure of other geochemical
parameters, such as the chemical and isotope composition of gases dissolved in
groundwaters, has also proved to be useful in predicting changes in the state of activity the
volcano.
The network of infrared, thermal and visual web cameras, installed on Stromboli since
1999 and improved after the 2002-03 flank eruption, has allowed a continuous observation
of the crater terrace, and thus an evaluation of the number of explosive events over time at
each of the summit vents. This semi-quantitative analysis has shown that effusive eruptions
typically start during phases of increased explosive activity at the summit craters, although
not all these peaks eventually lead to an effusive eruption. Detailed sampling of the erupted
products (lapilli, scoria, ash, and lava flows) has provided important informations on the
eruptive dynamics, and measurements of components and compositions have been
interpreted in the light of changing magma level within the conduits, eruption processes,
and to the features of the feeding system. Additional informations on the magma level
within the conduits have been furnished by the thermal surveys of the summit craters,
carried out on Stromboli since 2001 from land and helicopter. Thermal mapping has
allowed characterising the distribution, size and eruptive activity of vents within the crater
terrace. A preliminary analysis of these past data series has shown that the maximum
temperature recorded at the summit vents significantly increases before an effusive
eruption. Conversely, the opening of eruptive fissures within the Sciara del Fuoco produces
drainage of the upper conduit, interruption of explosive activity at the summit vents, and
decrease of the maximum temperature recorded at the summit vents. Thermal mapping is
also essential when dealing with the formation of compound lava flow fields, because this
is the only way to observe and reconstruct the growth of lava flows and tubes with time, as
well as to analyse surface morphologies. The latter point is essential to characterise the
stability of the lava flow field, perched on the very steep slope of the Sciara del Fuoco.
Effusion rates and its variations with time are obtained from both satellite images and from
helicopter thermal mapping. A rapidly increasing effusion rate is typical of the initial
drainage of an eruptive dike; slowly decreasing trends are indicative of intermediate stages;
and extremely low but almost stable values reveal that the eruption is approaching to an
end.
In spite of the recent improvements in our understanding of Stromboli’s behaviour,
predicting the evolution of the volcano with time, and its transitions from “normal”
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strombolian activity to either more explosive events or effusive eruptions, still remains
challenging. This is partly because our comprehension of the key factors leading to such a
transition toward more critical states is still partial. . The following key questions need to
be addressed:
i. Which is the structure of Stromboli’s plumbing system?
ii. How does the volcano behave during its persistent Strombolian activity, and which
are the rates and mechanisms of steady-state magma supply, convective overturning,
degassing and fragmentation?
iii. Which are the mechanisms leading to departure of the system from steady-state
conditions, thus triggering either effusive or paroxysmal explosive events?
iv. Can we recognize, in the chemical and physical parameters monitored by the
surveillance network, unambiguous precursor signals of the onset of either effusive or
paroxysmal explosive events?
v.
Is it possible, at the present state of our knowledge, to develop an integrated alert
system for effusive and paroxysmal explosive eruptions?
This coordinated project aims at contribute in putting a step forward in the
interpretation of the above-described volcanic processes at Stromboli, with a special focus
on the identification of the mechanisms driving the volcano toward large-scale explosive
events or effusive eruptions. The project comprises several multidisciplinary aspects, and
has three main specific targets:
(1) to improve the knowledge of the volcano’s plumbing system, and more specifically
to derive quantitative constrains on the mechanisms and rates of ascent of LP magmas
within the shallow HP magma storage zone. Attainment of this objective requires the use
of field surveys, laboratory analyses and experiments, and numerical simulations. A better
definition of the processes governing pre- and syn-eruptive ascent of LP magmas in the
plumbing system is ultimately an essential step for confining the type and magnitude of
physical and chemical signals that should herald an explosive eruption, and is thus of
paramount importance for interpreting the signals recorded by the monitoring systems;
(2) to characterize, with a multidisplinary approach, the processes leading to a lava
effusion, and to identify the measurable signals that should accompany such an event;
(3) to promote a multidisciplinary and integrated analysis of signals recorded by the
monitoring systems, with the objective of identifying trends, in the collected data, that
might suggest that an eruptive crisis is approaching or is getting more probable. These
investigations will eventually be addressed to the development of a prototype of an
integrated and multidisciplinary alert system, aimed at a a short-term evaluation of the
probability of occurrence of major explosions, paroxysms or lava flows.
The project gathers contributions from 12 RUs, and is organised in three tasks, which
activities and objectives are detailed below. Task 1 is devoted to the “Modeling of
volcanic processes in the plumbing system”, and combines multidisciplinary field and
laboratory experiments, fieldwork and laboratory analyses on erupted products, and
analogue and numerical modelling. Task 2 and Task 3 deal with the processing and
interpretation of signals from the monitoring network, toward the individuation of
precursors of large-scale explosive events (Task 2) and effusive eruptions (Task 3),
respectively.
A part of the project is dedicated at building up a field experiment on the summit of
Stromboli, where all the RUs participating to the project are involved in both collecting
multiparametric data (including the collection of all products erupted during the field
experiment). The mechanisms of magma ascent, degassing and convective recycling, and
the processes of gas-melt separation and magma fragmentation, will specifically be
investigated combining gravimetric, seismic, GPS, gas geochemistry, electric and thermal
measurements with mineralogical, textural and compositional data on emitted products.
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Results will be interpreted also in light of models proposed for other persistently-degassing
volcanoes (e.g., Villarica, Miyake-jima, and Popocatepetl) in order to obtain a general
interpretative model able to explain the persistent strombolian activity of the volcano in
terms of gas, magma and energy budgets.
The organization of this field experiment (one per year) involving a large number of
scientists implies that a large part of the financial request is devoted to expenses for the
field campaigns. Travel expenses are also justified by the need of performing research and
analytical work in both national and foreign laboratories.
The coordinators of the project are deeply committed in assuring and promoting skilful
discussions among the participants, in a way to obtain a final interpretative result of the
whole data set that, although preliminary, is widely accepted. It is worth noting that
virtually all the RUs participating to this project have been involved in the management of
the two last eruptive crises on Stromboli, and are used to collaborate together comparing
contrasting ideas even in a tough moment like an eruptive crisis. This experience built up
trust and confidence in sharing data and discussing results among different institutions
involved in the monitoring of Stromboli, experience that is further grown during the past 4
years also thanks to the collaboration focused at producing the first geophysical
monograph on the 2002-03 eruptive crisis edited by AGU, where universities, INGV and
Civil Protection worked together to meet the same goal.
Task 1. Modelling of volcanic processes in the plumbing system
RU Coordinating: Mauro Rosi, UniPi
RU Participating: Aiuppa (UniPa), Bertagnini (INGV-Pi), Calvari (INGV-CT), Carapezza
(INGV-RM1), Dellino (UniBa), Martini (INGV-OV), Mattia (INGV-CT), Ripepe (UniFi),
Rizzo (INGV-Pa), Rosi (UniPi +UniUrb), Rotolo (UniPa),
This task aims at collecting quantitative data on mechanisms governing major explosions,
paroxysms and lava flows; and at quantitatively characterising dynamics and rates of
ascent of the LP magmas, interactions between the LP and HP magmas, and their influence
on the eruptive behaviour.
The following main aspects will be investigated:
i) modalities and rates of magma transfer and degassing prior to major explosions and
paroxysms; ii) dynamics of interaction between the shallow HP magmatic body and the
volatile-rich LP magma, iii) modalities of magmatic fragmentation and its influence on the
explosive processes during paroxysms; iv) role of the ongoing effusive activity in the
paroxysmal dynamics; v) events of refilling and supply rate.
We will provide a multidisciplinary approach integrating fieldwork, compositional and
textural analyses of natural samples, laboratory experiments, and numerical modelling of
volcanic degassing and gas segregation and release during magma ascent.
A comprehensive study on deposits of March 15, 2007 paroxysm, including field and
laboratory methods, will be performed by RU Rosi (UniPi and Renzulli UniUrb).
Volcanological data will be compared with syn-eruptive geophysical signals, and images
and movies of the eruption, to describe and quantify the explosive dynamics. Physical and
textural characteristics of the tephra will be studied in detail to derive insights into
fragmentation processes, conduit dynamics and possible relationships between the effusive
activity and the explosive event. In addition, textural and compositional features of blocks
emitted during the paroxysm will be studied in order to obtain informations on transient
processes affecting the shallow HP basaltic system during periods of flank effusive
eruptions, and/or conduit dynamics. The results will be compared with the 2003 event and
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older paroxysms described in the literature to evaluate the significance of these two wellmonitored events within the framework of historical activity of the volcano.
A quantitative assessment of the rates of ascent of LP magmas, emitted as pumice during
major explosions and paroxysms, is of primary importance for the monitoring system of
the volcano. This aspect will be investigated by integrating analyses of natural samples,
laboratory experiments and comparison between natural and synthetic products (RU
Bertagnini and Rotolo). Decompression experiments simulating the ascent of LP magma
between the deep storage zone (2-3 kb) and the shallow magma reservoir, at a pressure
close to 100 bars, will be performed by RU Rotolo. These experiments will attempt to
investigate the factors (ascent rates, and the amount of a fluid phase at depth) allowing
magma to ascend with limited crystallization. Experimentally derived growth rates will be
used to interpret growth (and/or zoning) patterns, shown by natural crystals. Quantitative
data on size, abundance, morphology and zoning of olivines will be collected from
pumices of the 2003 and 2007 paroxysms, and for a comparison, from the major explosion
of August 1998 and from large-scale paroxysms (e.g. 1930).
Analogue experiments on natural materials at magmatic temperature and appropriate
pressure will also be performed by RU Rotolo in order to investigate the mechanisms
(diffusion, buoyant plumes, convective mixing) and time scale of interactions between LP
and HP magmas, and their possible influence on the early stages of a paroxysmal event.
These experiments will also allow testing the hypothesis of the occurrence at Stromboli of
“lava lamp” magma convection, with ascending LP magma and dense HP magma sinking
back in the conduit. Textural and compositional relationships after isobaric quenching
carried out after different reaction times will be analyzed to evaluate in detail: (i) the effect
of water diffusion on crystallinity, stability of single phases, density and viscosity; (ii) the
critical parameters (crystallinity, vesicularity, density, viscosity, timescale) favouring the
formation of buoyant or laden plumes; iii) the style and vigour of compositionally-driven
convective mixing. The modalities of interaction between HP and LP magmas, and their
effect on mineral dissolution/crystallization, volatile exsolution and related transition
between eruptive styles, will further be studied with two approaches: (i) textural and
compositional characterization of disequilibria of minerals in recent products (e.g. scoriae
emitted in the years between the two effusive episodes); (ii) analyses of chemical
composition and volatile content in melt inclusions trapped in minerals, and being
testimony of successive events of dissolution/crystallization (RU Bertagnini). More
specifically, the role of convective movements and sinking of dense degassed HP blobs
versus the injection of ascending LP magmas will be investigated. Composition of
minerals and melts will be interpreted by comparison with experimentally determined
phase equilibria at different pressures (specifically PH2O) conditions (RU Rotolo), and gas
composition (RU Aiuppa). The modalities and rates of the magma supply, and magma
resident times in the HP storage zone, will also be characterised through the application of
isotopic techniques (RU Ripepe, Francalanci). The research activity will be mainly
dedicated to the analyses of the short-lived isotope ratios of U-Th on pumice, lavas and
scoria samples. In particular, 226Ra-230Th and 228Ra-232Th disequilibria between pumice and
scoria samples of the most recent activity will be compared to evaluate the timescale of the
magma chamber replenishment.
Another class of activities will be addressed to the quantitative evaluation of volcanic
degassing processes, with a particular focus on the composition of the magmatic gas phase
released by LP magmas along their ascent path, and upon their accumulation in crustal
magma storage zone (RU Aiuppa and Bertagnini). A special emphasis will be given to
constraining the magnitude and timing of the geochemical and geophysical signals that
should accompany the ascent or/and accumulation of LP magmas, and that could provide
precursory warning signals of the explosive paroxysms, detectable by the monitoring
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network. In particular, we will attempt to assess both the source depth and the ascent rates
of magmas and gases involved in the paroxysms. Basically, the following aspects will be
integrated: i) the abundance and behaviour of dissolved volatiles in Stromboli magma, (ii)
geochemical modelling of the magma degassing, (iii) the Jaupart and Vergniolle (1989)’s
model for bubble foam growth and collapse, iv) the depth-velocity model of slug ascent,
and v) processing of the frequency and amplitude contents of seismic signals. The
quantitative interpretation of chemical data (including volcanic gas compositions and
volatile contents in melt inclusion and matrix glasses) will also be used to put constrains
into the physical aspects of volcanic degassing, with a special focus on the characterisation
of convective magma circulation in the volcano’s shallow plumbing system. In fact, while
density-driven magma convection in the shallow dyke-conduit system is accepted to be the
source of persistent degassing during normal strombolian activity, perturbation in such
steady-state magma overturning may represent an additional trigger of paroxysmal events,
which should to be further explored. The evolution of the volatile phase will be also
studied following the in-situ variations of the dissolved contents of H2O, CO2, S, and Cl
along concentration profiles in pumice samples (RU Bertagnini). In fact, the rapid
crystallization of olivines, combined with the sudden surface transfer of crystals during a
paroxysm, offer the possibility of determining the S/Cl, S/H2O, S/CO2 ratios in a melt
under decompression, and of predicting (by mass balance) the composition of the exsolved
gas phase. A coupled approach of pumice texture, vesicularity and residual water (water
profiles near the bubbles) using microRaman spectroscopy will also be performed (in
cooperation with RU Rosi). Data interpretation will also aim at investigating the effect of
possible disequilibrium conditions on magma degassing, and determining the effect of
H2O-CO2 rich gas bubbles on the degassing of sulfur and chlorine during their differential
transfer. By comparing the data altogether for paroxysmal eruptions of variable amplitude,
we should be able to address the question of the depth of CO2-bubble accumulation.
The partitioning of chlorine between the melt and the fluid phase will be experimentally
investigated with the aim to describe the behaviour of Cl in a multi-component fluid, and
in order to fully define the evolution of the fluid phase at the relevant conditions of the
degassing magma (RU Rotolo, RU Aiuppa). Assessment of noble gases abundances and
isotopic ratios, as well as 13δC of CO2, in olivine-hosted and pyroxene-hosted fluid
inclusions from both HP and LP recent products will be carried out by RU Rizzo, with the
objective of better constraining the early signals of eruptions and/or paroxysm.
The recent paroxysms at Stromboli provide a fairly detailed database of geodetic and
seismic recordings. In particular, both paroxysms of April 5 and March 15 were preceded
by signals indicating an inflation of the volcanic edifice in response to a pressurization of
the shallow conduit. Since this phenomenon can be detected minutes before the explosion
occurs, it has the potential to contribute to the implementation of an early-warning system.
The correct interpretation of the measured signals requires however a quantitative
modelling of the elastostatic field generated by the conduit pressurization. At this aim, the
RU Martini (INGV-OV) will develop a code for computing the deformation of the volcano
edifice in response to arbitrary strain sources. This can be achieved through the
computation of elementary strain nuclei functional for representing complex sources. The
code will take into account the effect of the topography and of the lateral heterogeneity of
the volcanic edifice. The strain nuclei will be used for the simultaneous inversion of the
tilts retrieved from the seismic signals and strains. The inversion will provide an image of
the evolution of the strain source before the explosions, and will be greatly useful for
implementing an early-warning system. A further contribution to the interpretation of data
obtained form the geodetic and seismic networks will be given from 3D deformation
models (RU Mattia). These will be set up with the aim to evaluate both the mechanisms of
gas ascent immediately before or during the explosions, and the volumes responsible for
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the conduit expansion. RU Mattia plans to set up a high resolution 3D model of the
volcanic edifice, and to compute the strain and stress field using the Finite Element
Method (FEM). The same RU will also investigate the possible role of a slow
decompression process in triggering major explosions and paroxysms. This will be
achieved by the use of analogue experiments on decompression of a volatile-rich analogue
of magma, combined with numerical and theoretical modelling of decompression
processes on volatile-rich magma-filled reservoirs.
The activities of Task 1 also include a multi-disciplinary experiment to be performed at
Stromboli with the simultaneous participation of several RUs, and attempting at: (i)
investigating the relationships between various geophysical, volcanological and
geochemical parameters during persistent activity and (ii) promoting a joint analysis and
modelling of the signals, to improve our understanding of magmatic processes at
Stromboli, and extending further the possibilities and the effectiveness of volcano
monitoring. The proposed experiment will involve many RUs (RU Calvari (Carbone,
Andronico), RU Martini and RU Ripepe, RU Aiuppa and RU Rizzo, RU Carapezza
(Taddeucci), RU Bertagnini (Landi), RU Dellino (Büttner and Zimanowski)) and include
the simultaneous operation (for one week) of portable spring gravimeters, thermal cameras,
broadband seismometer arrays and infrasonic sensors, analyses of gas output, sampling of
erupted products and analyses of electric data from newly installed devices. The main
expected results are the following: (i) to infer the seismic features associated with the
dynamics of shallow gas slug ascent and (ii) to identify ground oscillations likely to induce
apparent gravity changes. Infrasonic sensors would temporarily extend and integrate the
permanent array (RU Ripepe), with the aim of recognizing the dynamics of large gas slugs
in the uppermost portion of the conduit. Electric, thermal, gas composition and video data,
together with sampling of ejecta and relative analyses, will contribute to an in-depth
characterisation of the summit plumbing system, allowing us to relate what is revealed by
the geophysical surveys with the eruptive dynamics obtained by the analysis of
volcanological parameters. Constraints on the velocity, volume and composition of gas
emitted during explosions will be obtained through integrated geochemical, infrared and
ultraviolet imaging measurements.
Task 2. Precursors of paroxysms and major explosions
RU Coordinating: Marcello Martini, INGV-OV
(INGV-RM1), Dellino (UniBa), Doumaz (INGV-CNT), Martini (INGV-OV), Mattia
(INGV-CT), Ripepe (UniFi), Rizzo (INGV-Pa)
Task 2 focuses on the quantitative analysis of instrumental signals derived from the
existing monitoring networks, and from the ad-hoc designed experiments to be performed
within the project. The main objective of the task will be to critically review and
systematize the mass of informations deriving from geochemical, geophysical and
volcanological observations, in the attempt to build up a widely-accepted set of potential
precursor parameters to the occurrence of major explosions and paroxysms at Stromboli.
These will in turn be used for the ideation and development of a prototype alert system to
paroxysms, based on the multidisciplinary analysis of measured signals.
There are convincing evidences for paroxysms and major explosions resulting from the
sudden pressurization of the shallow plumbing system of the volcano; this in turn being
triggered by the ascent of gas-rich magmas and/or large gas pockets likely sourced by a
deeper (> 3 km) magma storage zone. Due to this deep source region of magmas and gases
involved in the paroxysms, predicting their occurrence would require the investigation of
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the deep volcano’s plumbing system; which is however hard to access by geophysical
soundings because of the insular position of Stromboli. However, a recent re-interpretation
of signals acquired in the period October 2006-April 2007 has evidenced the existence of
potential geophysical precursors to the March 15, 2007 event which, if confirmed, would
open the way to the geophysical prediction of paroxysms a few days before their
occurrence. To this aim, RU Mattia will extend farther his novel automatic procedure of
combined processing of both seismic signals and high-rate GPS data, and will explore a
wider dataset than originally used. This will involve the use of an automatic routine for the
spectral analysis of seismo-volcanic signals, which allows separating LP (long-period),
VLP (very-long period), hybrid and volcano-tectonic components in the measured
seismicity pattern; and the use of wavelet coherence analysis to filtrate the effect of
weather parameters on seismic and high-rate GPS datasets. At a shorter time-scale, the preparoxysm ascent of gas pockets or foamy magmas in the shallow dyke-conduit system has
been shown to produce a short-lived (3-4 minutes) ground inflation, which has been
detected by a network of tiltmeters and strainmeters, for the very first time at Stromboli,
before the onset of the March 15, 2007 paroxysm. In this context, activities of RU Martini
(INGV-OV) and Ripepe (UniFi) will be addressed to an in-depth processing and analysis
of data acquired by both tiltmeters and strainmeters before the March 15 event.
Comparisons between observations and fluid-dynamic numerical models will be finalized
to investigate the mechanisms and rates of gas/magma transport, producing conduit
pressurization and the measured deformation pattern. The above information will be
integrated with data from other high-sensitivity deformation instruments, such as ground
interferometer and high-rate GPS, in the attempt to build up and to test a robust and
reliable early-warning system for large explosions on Stromboli. The early warning system
will consist of a real-time pre-processing system of both seismic and strain signals and of a
detection of increasing ground deformation. The system will be tested both with signals of
actual explosions and with other signals in order to avoid false triggers.
The analysis of geochemical signals recorded by the monitoring systems, and their
interpretation toward the identification of critical thresholds suggestive of increasing
probabilities of the occurrence of major explosions and paroxysms, will be the object of
investigations by RU Aiuppa (UniPa), Carapezza (INGV-RM1), Ripepe (UniFi; actually
Cigolini, UniTo) and Rizzo (INGV-Pa). The four research groups will work in close
cooperation and will try a definite assessment of the rates and dynamics of volatile and
heat transfer throughout the different sub-systems (plume, thermal aquifer, soils and
fumaroles) of the volcanic edifice. RU Aiuppa will focus on the assessment of the volatile
mass budget through the summit crater’s plume, its dependence on the volcano activity
state, and on the identification of precursor signals to paroxysms from the chemical
features of the volcanic plume. To this aim, compositional data of the major components of
the plume (H2O, CO2, SO2, HCl) will be derived from an integrated network of fullyautomated geochemical instrumentations (actually two MultiGAS and one FTIR)
permanently installed (or to be installed within the framework on the project) on the
summit of the volcano. By scaling the ratios between gas species to the SO2 flux
(determined by a network of four UV scanning spectrometers run by INGV-CT), a first
systematic record of the H2O flux from the volcanic plume of Stromboli will be derived;
and the already-existing dataset for the CO2 flux will be considerably expanded and better
interpreted, with the goal of better constraining the range of emissions typical of persistent
strombolian activity and to prove further the significance of the precursor increase
observed before March 15, 2007. RU Carapezza will characterize the rate of diffuse CO2
emissions from soils, and the rate of change of pressure gradients in the soil over time, in
two key-sectors of the volcano (Nel Cannestrà and Rina Grande), by using a network of
automated devices based on the accumulation chamber method and pressure transducers.
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In both the two areas, a significant gas contribution from the magmatic system has been
recognized by geochemical and geophysical surveys. Moreover, the clear deformation
patterns detected by the co-located tiltmeters in the minutes before the March 15, 2007
paroxysm, suggest that the above areas are affected by significant pressure waves before a
paroxysm, a signal which, in principle, might be captured as an increase of CO2 fluxes and
as a pressure transient in the soil. The significance of radon measurements for the
prediction of major explosions and paroxysms will be explored by RU Ripepe (Cigolini,
UniTo), which from the processing of previously collected data and new measurements
from a network of both manual and automatic devices will attempt at better defining the
background levels, thresholds, and radon anomalies associated with specific variations of
the volcanic activity. New and old automatically-collected measurements will be crosschecked with geophysical and geochemical data from other RUs, and the criteria for
identifying the precursory signals of large-scale explosions on the volcano will be
explored. The composition of the thermal aquifer of Stromboli will be investigated by RU
Rizzo (INGV-Pa), whose activities will be devoted to development and installation of
novel permanent devices for the continuous, real-time measurement of groundwater
temperature and CO2 partial pressure. The research unit will also characterize the range of
variation of the acquired signals during phases of persistent explosive activity, and will
attempt to recognise those signals potentially indicating an increase in the probability of
more-violent explosive events. In this context, the RU Rizzo will cooperate with RU
Carapezza, for the installation of a novel device (a quadrupole) for the real-time
measurement of the composition of dissolved gases in a thermal well (Pozzo Limoneto) of
the coastal aquifer. The same RU Rizzo will also test (and apply in the field) new probes
for the measurement of temperature profiles in topsoils from the summit area of Stromboli,
and will check if variations in the temperature gradients (likely correlated with changes in
H2O flux through the soil) will correlate with changes of volcanic activity.
For what concerns the relationships between paroxysms and effusive phases, an in-depth
analysis of past eruption data will be carried out by RU Carapezza (Barberi), focused at
revisiting historical documents and statistically evaluate the recurrence of paroxysms in
connection with effusive eruptions.
Volcanological data, useful for interpreting deviations from persistent strombolian activity
toward more explosive events, will be collected and analysed by RU Calvari (INGV-CT).
This RU will review existing data and collect new informations from a network of fixed
cameras and from the data base of thermal images, with the final objective to evaluate the
existence of anomalies in the measured explosive rate (and in the thermal state of the
volcano summit) before a major explosion or a paroxysm. In several periods of low or high
strombolian activity, or effusive eruptions, fine tephra (ash and lapilli) are the only
available witnesses of the magma residing in the upper part of the plumbing system and of
the ongoing processes. It is expected that ash characterization can give important
informations on chemical changes in the HP magma due to the input of LP magma, or on
possible ascent of highly buoyant small-size magma batches heralding the paroxysmal
phase. However, in a volcano with a persistent activity, weathering, alteration and
recycling processes occurring within the crater or in the upper part of the conduit can hide
significantly primary magmatic informations. To overcome this problem, a strict
cooperation between researchers of the RUs Bertagnini, Calvari (Andronico) and
Carapezza (Taddeucci) is planned, aimed at setting-up a method that allows the
identification of components within the tephra in which primary magmatic information are
preserved. After a calibration phase, carried out on samples representative of different
eruptive styles, we plan to test the method on tephra erupted in well-monitored eruptive
sequences and sampled during the multi-parameter experiments (see above, task 1). The
same RUs will also perform an in-depth textural (component analysis), petrologic (major
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elements in matrix glass and whole rock) and geochemical (volatile ratios in the ash
leacheates) characterisation of ash samples collected during the last few years of activity of
the volcano; and will search for evidences, before the April 2003 and March 2007, of the
early-arrival in the plumbing system of the LP magmas later emitted during the explosions.
RU Calvari will work in strict cooperation with RU Dellino (Buttner & Zimanowki), which
will contribute to the project by installing and testing a network of electrical sensors,
capable in detecting variations of the electromagnetic field caused by generation and
atmospheric dispersion of volcanic ash, quite common also during strombolian explosions
at Stromboli volcano. This novel technology will check if changes in ash generation
mechanism – reflected into measurable variations in the electromagnetic field – can give
clues into the triggers of large-scale explosions on the volcano. In particular, these
measurements will allow us to distinguish between ash produced by magmatic or
phreatomagmatic fragmentation, and ash produced by failures of the conduit’s walls.
The whole mass of informations collected within the project, or extracted from previously
existing datasets, will be organised in a comprehensive database. The significance of the
different acquired parameters will be evaluated by use of a statistical approach, attempting
at a quantitative evaluation of the relations between measured signals and the occurrence
of major explosions or paroxysms. The critical analysis of the signals acquired by the
monitoring network before the paroxysms of April 5, 2003 and March 15, 2007 will be
used for the development of an integrated and multidisciplinary alert system for the realtime evaluation of the short-term occurrence of major explosions/paroxysms, to be
performed by RU Doumaz. The prototype of a computer interface, to be installed at DPCCentro Funzionale and based on the above described alert system, will also be developed
by the same RU.
Task 3. Precursors of effusive eruptions
RU Coordinating: Maurizio Ripepe, UniFi
(INGV-RM1), Dellino (UniBa), Doumaz (INGV-CNT), Martini (INGV-OV), Mattia
(INGV-CT), Ripepe (UNIFi + UniTo).
This task is devoted to a quantitative and multi-parametric analysis of instrumental signals
derived from the existing permanent monitoring networks and from new field campaigns,
as well as from the ad-hoc designed experiments to be performed within the project (see
task 1). The main objective is to critically review and systematize the mass of information
deriving from geochemical, geophysical and volcanological observations and monitoring
networks, recorded shortly before but especially in between the last two effusive eruptions,
with the aim to select a set of potential parameters forerunning the occurrence of effusive
eruptions. Each RU involved in this task will provide data considered significant as
precursors of effusive activity, together with a possible interpretative model that might
change as the analysis of data proceeds. The amount and quality of data inserted in the
data-base will improve with time, as a function of data analysis and discovery of important
precursors. Data and models will then be used by RU Doumaz in order to compile a database and organise a synopsis of the whole data set. RU Doumaz will also furnish a basic
multi-parametric statistical analysis of the data contained within the data-base. These
results will be discussed and evaluated by all the participants to this task during periodic
meetings appropriately organised. RU Doumaz will also provide a final prototype of
integrated and multidisciplinary alert system obtained in collaboration with all the RUs that
have provided the data. Thus, the short-term evaluation of the occurrence of major
explosions/paroxysms or lava flows, as well as a feasibility study for the installation of the
104
prototype at “DPC Centro Funzionale” will be the final product of this task obtained by the
close collaboration of all its participants.
The potential role played by changes in the regional tectonic stress field in triggering
effusive eruptions at Stromboli volcano will be investigated by RU Mattia using past GPS
and seismic data from both discrete measurements and permanent networks of INGV-CT
(collected on the whole Aeolian archipelago since 1997). In addition, RU Mattia will also
perform a joint analysis of seismic and high frequency GPS signals (1 Hz), which showed
significant changes in their spectral contents before the 2007 eruption. A joint inversion
and correlation analysis of these multivariate datasets will be the final result from this
study.
The features of volcanic activity in period between the recent eruptive crises in 2002-2003
and 2007 will be analysed by RU Calvari. The RU will review images recorded by the
INGV-CT web-cameras network, as well as the thermal images from field and helicopter
surveys. These measurements will be contrasted with trends in composition and texture of
the erupted products collected before, between and after the two flank eruptions (scorias,
lapilli, ash and leacheate chemistry), carried out in collaboration from RU Calvari
(Andronico), RU Aiuppa, RU Carapezza (Taddeucci) and RU Bertagnini. This will allow
comparing various methods of analysis and quantification of those parameters that might
suggest that an effusive phase is approaching. The interpretation of the different explosive
styles recorded on the volcano with thermal cameras (RU Calvari) will benefit from the
comparison with laboratory simulations of explosions carried out in collaboration with the
RU Dellino in controlled conditions. During the experiments, the artificial explosions will
be targeted with the same thermal camera used for volcano monitoring, in order to obtain
also corrections and quantifications for the amount of fine-grained particles able to filter
the high-temperature target of the eruptive column. A comparison of the effusion rate
trends calculated for the two eruptions by thermal mapping (RU Calvari) and satellite
imaging (RU Doumaz) will also be performed.
Previous geophysical-geochemical investigations have indicated that a large part of the
crater depression contained a shallow geothermal system, which was potentially involved
in the large collapse that affected the crater area in March 2007. In order to assess the
structural, hydrogeological and geothermal conditions of the volcano’s summit, and to
recognize any perturbation of the system left after the 2007 summit collapse, the RU
Carapezza (Finizola) will carry out geoelectrical, self-potential, temperature and CO2-flux
profiles on the crater area. Further analyses and measurements of Stromboli’s crater plume
emissions will be carried out by RU Aiuppa and RU Calvari (Burton), in order to quantify
the rates of transfer of gases from deep magma storage zones to the shallow feeding system
of the volcano, which increases may potentially trigger lava effusions at Stromboli. These
data will be compared with signal obtained from the gas monitoring stations located at the
summit craters and in the basal aquifers (RU Rizzo), and with those resulting from discrete
measurements of radon (RU Ripepe, Cigolini).
RU Ripepe (Ripepe-Cigolini-Casagli) will concentrate on analyzing the interactions
between the geophysical parameters such as seismicity, ground deformations measured by
inSar and tiltmeters, and magma-gas feeding rate, with the aim to identify clear patterns in
the seismic, infrasonic, thermal, ground deformation and radon emission associated to
large changes in magma input rate and/or gas flux before an explosive-to-effusive
transitions.
105
Flow chart of project achievements and products
Tasks 2 and 3
106
General
2. Database of data utilized and produced in the project
3. Definition of the spatial-temporal patterns and analyses of signals recorded by
the monitoring systems related to the occurrence of major explosions,
paroxysms and lava flows
4. Definition of relationships between pre- syn-eruptive volcanic processes and
signals recorded by the monitoring systems
5. Numerical simulations of the occurrence of eruptive events, with particular
reference to the ascent of a deep, volatile-rich magma
6. Prototype of an integrated and multidisciplinary alert system, for the short-term
evaluation of the occurrence of major explosions/paroxysms or lava flows s
7. Feasibility study, in agreement with DPC, for the installation of the prototype at
“DPC Centro Funzionale
Task 1. Modelling of volcanic processes in the plumbing system
1. Database of data utilized and produced within the task
2. Modalities and rates of magma transfer and degassing prior to major explosions
and paroxysms
3. Mechanisms and time scale of interactions between LP and HP magmas
4. Mechanisms and rates of refilling and relationships with changes in eruptive
styles
Task 2. Precursors of paroxysms and major explosions
2. Quantitative analyses of signals from the monitoring network, and definition of
precursors to major explosion and paroxysms
3. Definition of an integrated and multidisciplinary alert system, for the short-term
evaluation of the occurrence of major explosions/paroxysms
Task 3. Precursors of effusive eruptions
2. Quantitative analyses of signals from the monitoring network, and definition of
precursors to effusive eruptions
3. Definition of an integrated and multidisciplinary alert system, for the short-term
evaluation of the occurrence of effusive eruptions
107
PROJECT V2 – PAROXYSMS
TABLE MAN/MONTHS
RU
Institutions
Principal
Responsibles
Task1
Task2
Task3
Mesi p.
cofunded
Mesi p.
requested
RU-1
UniPa,
INGV-Pa,
INGV-OV, INGVCT, CNRS-LPS
Aiuppa, Gurrieri,
Burton,
Caltabiano, Allard,
Moretti, Pino
@
@
@
54
2
RU-2
INGV-Pi,
CNRSLPS, Univ. Paris. VI,
UniPv, UniCa, IGGCNR-Pv
Bertagnini,
Pompilio, Metrich,
,Landi, Cioni
Vannucci
@
@
@
37
1
RU-3
INGV-CT,
Univ.
Montreal,
UniPa,
INGV-OV, INGV-Pi
Calvari,
Andronico,
Carbone
@
@
@
53
RU-4
INGV-Rm1,
UniRm3,
IPGP,
UniPa,
INGV-CT,
IMAA-CNR,
Colorado School of
Mines
Carapezza,
Barberi, Finizola,
Parello,
Taddeucci,
Scarlato, Ventura
@
@
62
RU-5
UniBa,
INGV
Dellino, La Volpe,
Sulpizio,
Zimanowski,
Buettner, Braun
RU-6
INGV-CNT
Doumaz,
Buongiorno
RU-7
INGV-OV, Carnegie
Institution
Martini, D’Auria,
Giudicepietro,
Esposito,
De
Cesare
RU-8
INGV-CT,
Leeds,
INGV-Rm
Univ.
UniBo,
RU-9
UiWuerz,
@
2+4*
74
@
@
22
@
@
@
17
Mattia,
Patanè,
Bonaccorso,
Rivalta, Giunchi,
Bonafede
@
@
@
36
UniFi, UniTo, UniFi,
Univ. Bristol,
Ripepe, Casagli,
Cigolini,
Frnacalanci,
Conticelli,
Tommasini
@
@
@
102
RU-10
INGV-Pa,
ISTOOrleans, IGP-Paris
Rizzo,
Abaud
Gallard,
@
@
@
58
2
RU-11
UniPi,
UniUrb,
UniPr, Univ. Oregon
Rosi,
Renzulli,
Tribaudino
@
36
12
RU-12
UniPa, CNRS-ISTO,
INGV-Pi
Rotolo, Pichavant,
Scalliet,
Landi,
Pompilio
@
30
Total
581
1+6*
30
108
Project V2 – PAROXYSM. Financial Plan for the First Phase (Euros).
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
13700
0,00
91700
0,00
103500
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
128500
0,00
22600
0,00
360000
0,00
Totale
0,00
Project V2 – PAROXYSM. Financial Plan for the Second Phase (Euros).
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
13700
0,00
94600
0,00
102500
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
121200
0,00
22000
0,00
354000
0,00
Totale
0,00
109
Project V2 – PAROXYSM. Total Financial Plan, First + Second Phase (Euros).
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
27400
0,00
186300
0,00
206000
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
249700
0,00
44600
0,00
714000
0,00
Totale
110
0,00
Project V2 – PAROXYSM. Table RU’s and related funding request.
N. RU
RU-1
RU-2
RU-3
RU-4
RU-5
RU-6
RU-7
RU-8
RU-9
RU10
RU11
RU12
Istituz.
UniPa
INGV-Pi
INGV-CT
INGV-Rm1
UniBa
INGV-CNT
INGV-OV
INGV-CT
UniFi
Resp UR
Personale
Missioni
2nd
1st
1st
phase phase phase
Aiuppa 3900 3900 9000
Bertagnini 2300 2300 6000
Calvari
16100
Carapezza 2500 2500 5600
Dellino
7000
Doumaz
3000
Martini 2000 2000 9000
Mattia
6500
Ripepe
10000
INGV-Pa
Rizzo
UniPi
UniPa
3000 3000
Studi,ricerche
Costi
e prestazioni
amministrativi
professionali
Servizi
Materiale
durevole
e di consumo
2nd
1st
2nd
1st
2nd
1st
2nd
1st
2nd
phase phase phase phase phase phase phase phase phase
9000
4000 4000
18200 18200
6000
19000 19000
1500 1500
12000
16300 15000
6600
1000 2000
13400 11400
9000
13000 11000
3000
9600 9600
9000
7000 7000
8500
20500 18500
11000
29000 28000
10000 10000
1st
2nd
phase phase
3900 3900
3200 3200
3600 3000
2500 2500
1400
2000
3000
1400
2000
3000
17000 17000 3000
3000
7000
7000
Rosi
6000
6000
20500 20500
1500
1500
Rotolo
6500
7500
30000 29000
500
500
103500 102500
TOTAL 13700 13700 91700 94600
GRAND TOTAL: 714000
Spese
indirette
128500 121200 22600 22000
111
112
PROJECT V2 – PAROXYSM
113
114
V2 - Paroxysms
RU V2/01
Scientific Responsible: Alessandro Aiuppa, Professore Associato, Via Archirafi 36,
90123, Palermo, Italy, email: [email protected], tel: 091-6161516, fax: 091-6168376
RU Composition:
Man/Months 1st
phase
5
Man/Months 2nd
phase
5
UniPa
UniPa
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
1
Man/Months 2nd
phase
3
1
Prof. Ordinario
Primo-tecnologo
Tecnologo
Tecnologo
Primo Ricercatore
Tecnologo
Dirigente di ricerca
Ricercatore
Geofisico
Primo Ricercatore
UniPa
INGV-Pa
INGV-Pa
INGV-Pa
INGV-Pa
INGV-Pa
CNRS
INGV-OV
1
2
1
1
1
2
2
3
1
2
1
1
1
2
2
3
INGV-OV
3
3
Primo Ricercatore
Primo tecnologo
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
1
1
1
1
Ricercatore
Associate
professor
INGV-CT
University of
Sheffield
0
1
0
1
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Alessandro
Aiuppa
Prof. Associato
UniPa
Participants
Position
Institution
Emanuela Bagnato
Alessandro La
Spina
Francesco Parello
Gaetano Giudice
Giovanni Giuffrida
Roberto Guida
Sergio Gurrieri
Marco Liuzzo
Patrick Allard
Roberto Moretti
Post-Doc
Dottorando
Nicola Alessandro
Pino
Mike Burton
Tommaso
Caltabiano
Giuseppe Salerno
Andrew
McGonigle
Task 1
The triggering mechanism of major explosions and paroxysms, which intermittently hit
Stromboli volcano, still remains poorly elucidated and much debated, because only scarce
information has yet been obtained just prior to or during the paroxysms. At present, two
mechanisms were proposed for these events: (a) the fast ascent of gas-rich primitive
magma blobs from great depth, or (b) the fast ascent of prevalently CO2-rich large gas
pockets generated by bubble foam accumulation and collapse in the sub-volcano plumbing
system. Improved understanding of the paroxysms and their triggering mechanism, using
both modeling and new field measurements, is thus an important target and the objective of
the present project.
The mechanisms triggering major explosions and paroxysms at Stromboli will be explored
with a multi-disciplinary approach, combing experimental determinations and modelling
approaches.
Our activities will be aimed at the quantitative numerical simulations of
115
volcanic degassing processes, with a particular focus on the evaluation of the mechanisms
and rates of ascent of the volatile-rich low-porphyricity (LP) magmas extruded during the
explosive paroxysms at Stromboli. We propose to combine currently available data for
volatile contents in Stromboli’s primitive magmas (from UR Bertagnini) and the
compositions of emitted volcanic gases (this UR, task 2 and 3) with equilibrium models of
volatile saturation in silicate melts, in order to quantitatively evaluate the pressure-related
evolution of the magmatic gas phase associated with LP magmas during their ascent or/and
their accumulation in the plumbing system. Geochemical modelling will also take into
account physical aspects of volcanic degassing, with a special emphasis on the
characterisation of convective magma circulation in the volcano’s shallow plumbing
system. A special emphasis will be devoted to constraining the magnitude and timing of
the geochemical and geophysical signals that should accompany the ascent or/and
accumulation of LP magmas and that could provide precursory warning of the explosive
paroxysms, detectable by the monitoring network. Combining our simulation results with
field-measured data (task 2 and 3), we will attempt to assess both the source depth and the
ascent rates of magmas and gases involved in the paroxysms. We will build up a
conceptual framework for gas segregation and release grounded on geochemical,
petrologic and seismological data for the paroxysmal explosions. Basically, our modeling
will integrate the following aspects: i) the abundance and behaviour of dissolved volatiles
in Stromboli magma, (ii) geochemical modeling of the magma degassing, (iii) the Jaupart
and Vergniolle (1989)’s model for bubble foam growth and collapse, iv) the depth-velocity
modeling of slug ascent, and iv) processing of the frequency and amplitude contents of
associated seismic signals.
Task 2 and 3
If, as has been proposed, Stromboli’s explosive paroxysms were triggered by the sudden
transfer of voluminous gas amounts from deep magma storage zones to the shallow
conduit system, then monitoring the variations of the mass output and the chemical
composition of the crater plume emissions constitutes a key approach to better understand
and possibly forecast these events. The SO2 plume emission rate is now continuously
monitored with UV (DOAS) remote sensing (INGV-CT). But the emission rates of CO2
and H2O - the two main gas components – cannot be measured remotely, and thus require
either direct analysis of the plume gas composition, where the concentrations of CO2 and
H2O and possibly other species can be correlated to that of SO2. Until now, only episodic
measurements of the plume composition were performed using either in situ (Multi-GAS)
analysis or OP-FTIR remote sensing. But, it is noteworthy that these measurements have
revealed a sharp increase of both the CO2/SO2 ratio and CO2 flux (factor ~10) as much as 7
days prior to the recent paroxysm of 15 March 2007. Therefore, here we propose to
develop a systematic monitoring of the CO2 mass flux, by combining continuous recording
of the SO2 flux (UV-spectroscopy; INGV-CT) with both direct (Multi-GAS, UniPa and
INGV-PA) and remote (FTIR, INGV-CT) monitoring of the CO2/SO2 ratio of crater plume
emissions. For the direct measurements, we plan to use novel spectroscopic analysers
(NDIR and FTIR) that should allow us to determine also the H2O plume flux and, hence, to
evaluate its potential changes prior to both explosive paroxysms and effusive eruptions.
One NDIR spectrometer allowing simultaneous CO2 and H2O analysis will thus be
purchased (€ 7000) and installed on Stromboli within the 1st year of the project. For the
remote gas monitoring, the installation of a permanent FTIR spectrometer is planned by
INGV-CT in May 2008. These two monitoring tools will not only complement each other
(and compensate for each other in case of possible failure or destructive explosions), but
116
their permanent set up on Stromboli will be the first attempt of this kind ever realized on
an erupting volcano.
1. Models of magma degassing and the magmatic gas phase
2. Data collection for the plume composition from the automated geochemical
network (direct and remote monitoring)
3. Assessment of the temporal variability of volatile (H2O+CO2+SO2) budget in crater
plume emissions
4. Analysis of acquired and previously-available signals
5. Comparison between models of magma degassing and plume observations
6. Identification of precursors to paroxysms and effusive eruption from plume
investigations
7. Elaboration of a database and contribution to a multidisciplinary alert system
Financial Request (in Euro)
1st year
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
3900
0,00
9000
0,00
4000
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
18200
0,00
3900
0,00
0,00
39000
0,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
3900
0,00
9000
0,00
Totale
2nd year
Categoria di spesa
117
4000
0,00
0,00
18200
0,00
3900
0,00
Totale
39000
0,00
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
7800
0,00
18000
0,00
8000
0,00
Total
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
36400
0,00
7800
0,00
78000
0,00
Totale
0,00
Alessandro Aiuppa was born in Palermo on December 23 1971. He took his degree in
Geology in 1995. In 1996-97, he was master student at LPS-Saclay (CEA-CNRS, France)
and then PhD student (1997-99). He got his PhD in Geochemistry at Dipartimento CFTA
(Università di Palermo) in January 2000. He was “Assegnista di Ricerca” at CFTA from
2000 to 2002, and Researcher of Dip CFTA (UNIPA) from November 2002 to December
2004. From January 2005, Alessandro Aiuppa is Associate Professor of Geochemistry and
Volcanology at Università di Palermo. He presently teaches Volcanology and Volcanic
Risks for students of Geological Science Degree Course of Science Faculty (Università di
Palermo). He is also associated to research activities and volcano monitoring programs run
by Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (Sezione di Palermo). His research
topics include the modelling of volcanic degassing, the geochemistry of natural fluids
discharged at active volcanoes with a particular focus on plume geochemistry,
hydrogeochemical investigations of thermal aquifers and investigations of hydrothermal
processes. Alessandro Aiuppa is author of more than 40 refereed papers in international
journals.
Aiuppa A., Moretti R., Federico C., Giudice G., Gurrieri S., Liuzzo M., Papale P.,
Shinohara H., Valenza M., (2007), Forecasting Etna eruptions by real-time observation
118
of volcanic gas composition, Geology, December 2007; v. 35; no. 12; p. 1115–1118; doi:
10.1130/G24149A.
Aiuppa, A., Federico, C., (2004) Anomalous magmatic degassing prior to the 5th April
2003
paroxysm
on
Stromboli,
Geophys.
Res.
Lett.,
31,
L14607,
doi:10.1029/2004GL020458.
Allard, P., Carbonnelle, J., Métrich, N., Loyer, H., Zettwoog, P., (1994) Sulphur output and
magma degassing budget of Stromboli volcano. Nature, 368: 326-330.
Allard, P., Aiuppa, A., Loyer, H., Carrot, F., Gaudry, A., Pinte, G., Michel, A., Dongarrà,
G. (2000), Acid gas and metal emission rates during long-lived basalt degassing at
Stromboli volcano. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27: 1207-1210.
Burton, M., Allard, P., Muré, F., La Spina, A., (2007), Magmatic gas composition reveals
the source depth of slug-driven Strombolian explosive activity. Science, 317: 227-230.
119
V2 - Paroxysms
RU V2/2
Scientific Responsible: Antonella Bertagnini, senior researcher, Istituto Nazionale di
Geofisica e Vulcanologia, sezione di Pisa, Via della Faggiola, 32, 56126, Pisa, Italy, email:
[email protected], tel: 050-8311935, fax: 050-8311942
RU Composition:
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Antonella
Bertagnini
Senior researcher
INGVPi
Man/Months 1st
phase
4
Man/Months 2nd
phase
4
Man/Months 2nd
phase
3
3
0
Participants
Position
Institution
Patrizia Landi
Massimo Pompilio
Claudia D’Oriano
Senior researcher
Senior researcher
Post-doc
fellowship
Post-doc
fellowship
Associate
professor
Research director
Maitre de
Conference
technician
Full professor
Researcher
INGVPi
INGVPi
INGVPi
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
3
0
INGVPi
0
0
UniCa - INGVPi
1
1
CNRS - France
University of Paris
VI - France
CNRS-France
University of Pavia
IGG-CNR Pavia
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
2
1
1
Alessio DiRoberto
Raffaello Cioni
Nicole Métrich
Andrea Di Muro
Oulfa Belhadj
Riccardo Vannucci
Massimo Tiepolo
Task 1
The dynamics of major explosions and paroxysms will be investigated by tracking the
evolution of volatile and solid phases during the pre-eruptive deep stationing and the syneruptive stages.
Textural and compositional analyses of minerals (chiefly olivine) from the LP pumice will
be studied with the aim of assessing times of stationing in the deep ponding zone, rates and
dynamics of ascent of the LP magmas. We will collect quantitative data on size, abundance,
morphology and zoning of minerals in the products of major explosions and paroxysms of
different size (e.g 2003, 2007, 1998, 1930), through analyses of digital images acquired
with optical and electron scanning microscopes and EDS and WDS microanalysis.
Collected data will be compared with those resulting from decompression experiments
performed by RU Rotolo.
Evolution of the volatile phase will be studied by analysing the dissolved contents of H2O,
CO2, S, Cl in closed- and open-system melt inclusions in olivine crystals showing different
crystallization rates and in pumice matrix glass. In particular a coupled approach of pumice
texture, vesicularity and residual water (water profiles near the bubbles) using microRaman
spectroscopy will be performed (in cooperation with RU Rosi). Analyse of CO2 is rather
120
complicated because of the carbon low concentrations dissolved in matrix glasses.
However, attempt will be done with µFTIR.
This group of aanalyses is mainly aimed at (i) tracking the effect of disequilibrium
conditions on magma degassing, (ii) yielding decompression constraints via degassing
modelling, and (iii) determining the effect of H2O-CO2 rich gas bubbles on the degassing
of sulfur and chlorine during their differential transfer. By combining different
microanalytical techniques (FTIR, RAMAN, nuclear and electron microprobes) we
propose to build up a complete and detailed data set on volatile behavior in basaltic
magmas during decompression. Recent analytical developments of microRAMAN
spectroscopy offer the opportunity to measure water concentrations in volcanic glasses
with high accuracy (<7 % relative) and a very good spatial resolution (~1 µm). Very rapid
crystallization of olivine and its rapid transfer toward the surface offer the possibility of
determining the S/Cl, S/H2O, S/CO2 ratios in melt along decompression and of predicting
the composition of the resulting gas phase. By comparing the data altogether for
paroxysmal eruptions of variable scale and major explosions (e.g. 2003 and 2007
paroxysms and major explosion of August 1998), we should be able to address the
question of the depth of CO2-bubble accumulation. These results will be combined with i)
the experiments of decompression (RU Rotolo) and ii) the composition of the gas
emissions (RU Aiuppa).
The interaction between HP and LP magmas will be also studied in order to obtain
information on: evolution of the HP magma after events of refilling; dynamics of the
magma reservoir; depth of origin of small-scale explosive eruptions; modalities of
transition between eruptive styles and variations in the supply rate; melt redox state and
associated changes of the volatile solubility (mainly S, H2O) and gas composition. Two
main aspects will be investigated. The first pertains disequilibria of minerals in the HP
magma. These features have been attributed to interaction between magmas differing by
their volatile content, but can be also associated with recycling and re-hydration of densemagma blobs in the lower portion of the shallow HP body.
The second aspect involves the study of melt inclusions trapped in HP magma minerals,
testifying successive events of dissolution/crystallization. Textural and compositional data
will be interpreted by comparison with experimentally-determined phase equilibria at
different pressures (specifically PH2O) conditions (RU Rotolo) and gas compositions (RU
Aiuppa).
To this purposes, we plan to analyse HP scoriae emitted in recent activity (in particular in
the period between the 2002-2003 and 2007 effusive events) and products sampled during
the multi-parameter experiments planned during the project (RU Calvari, Carbone). Bulk
chemical composition of the scoriae will be performed by AAS/ICP-MS, composition of
minerals and glass by quantitative microanalysis using microprobe (WDS) and laser
ablation ICP-MS methods, whereas textural characterization will be made with Electron
Microscope. For the volatiles, methods described in previous section will be applied.
A research grant (32 000 for 2 years) will be assigned to a qualified post-doc student to
support the experimental and analytical work.
Task 2 and 3
The study of the fine tephra is a proxy of the state of the magmatic system, and of the
transition between eruptive styles. Glassy ash clasts (sideromelane) can provide, in
principle, useful informations on the ongoing magmatic and volcanic processes. However,
in a volcano with a persistent activity weathering, alteration and recycling occurring within
the crater or in the upper part of the conduit can significantly hide primary magmatic
information. To overcome these problems, we want to set-up a method that allows the
121
identification of components within the tephra in which primary magmatic information are
preserved. In order to identify diagnostic and classification parameters, we plan to perform
a systematic investigation that comprise 3D examination and thin section analysis of fine
tephra. The following parameters will be determined: i) morphology, including quantitative
description of shape and characters of the particle surface; ii) the presence of secondary
minerals and sublimates; iii) texture, comprising crystallinity and vesicularity; iv) chemical
composition in terms of major and trace elements, in particular those elements associated
with degassing processes (e.g.: B, Li, Be). Data will be collected trough quantitative
analyses of digital images acquired by optical and electron scanning microscopes. Chemical
composition will be determined by quantitative microanalysis using microprobe (WDS) and
laser ablation ICP-MS methods.
After a calibration phase, carried out on samples representative of different eruptive styles,
we plan to test the method on tephra erupted in well-monitored eruptive sequences and
sampled during the multi-parameter experiments.
Final aim of this method is to identify:
- chemical changes in the crystal-rich magma residing in the shallow plumbing
system due to progressive input of deep, crystal-poor, volatile-rich magma;
- possible ascent of highly buoyant small-size magma batches that herald the
paroxysmal phase.
1. compositional and textural analysis of minerals separated from LP pumice of the
2007 paroxysm
2. calibration of the analytical method of ash samples
3. Detailed analysis of past selected HP samples (chemistry, mineralogy and melt
inclusions) testifying disequilibrium conditions
4. Selection of the best samples for profile measurements in pumice from small scale
paroxysms (April 2003, 15 March 2007 and eventually new samples) and first set of
analysis (major element, S, and Cl analysis by electron microprobe)
5. Synthesis of complementary standard for water and carbon
1. analysis of minerals separated from pumice of the 2003 and 1930 paroxysms and
from a major explosion (August 1998 or August 1999)
2. Test of analytical method of ash samples on well-monitored eruptive sequences
3. Volatile profile analysis (H2O, CO2, S, Cl) using RAMAN spectroscopy, nuclear
microprobe and modelling.
4. analyses of samples collected during the multi-parameter experiment
5. Combination of our data analysis and modelling with experimental results and gas
emissions measurements
6. Contribution to the Elaboration of the database and to the multidisciplinary alert
system
122
1st year
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
2300
0,00
6000
0,00
19000
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
1500
0,00
3200
0,00
0,00
32000
0,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
2300
0,00
6000
0,00
19000
0,00
Totale
2nd year
Categoria di spesa
0,00
1500
0,00
3200
0,00
0,00
32000
0,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
4600
0,00
12000
0,00
Totale
Total
Categoria di spesa
123
38000
0,00
0,00
3000
0,00
6400
0,00
64000
0,00
Totale
0,00
Antonella Bertagnini. Senior Researcher at Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
(Sezione di Pisa). Relevant experience and expertise: master degrees in Natural Sciences
and Geological Sciences at the University of Pisa; 22 years experience in stratigraphy of
volcanic rocks, dynamics of explosive eruptions, petrological studies of volcanic rocks
with particular reference to shallow magmatic systems feeding volcanoes. Research
activity mainly carried out on: Stromboli, Vesuvius, Phlegrean Fields. Civil Defence
activities: participation in the scientific interventions during volcanic emergencies related
to 1989 and 1991-93 Etna eruptions and 2002-2003 and 2007 Stromboli volcanic crises,
and in the surveillance of Stromboli and Vulcano.
Bertagnini A., Métrich N., Landi P., Rosi M. (2003) Stromboli volcano (Aeolian
Archipelago, Italy): An open window on the deep feeling-system of a steady state
basaltic volcano. J. Geoph. Res., 108 (B7), 2336-2350.
Landi P., Métrich N., Bertagnini A., Rosi M. (2004) Dynamics of magma mixing and
degassing recorded in plagioclase at Stromboli (Aeolian Arcipelago, Italy). Contrib.
Mineral. Petrol. 147, 213 227.
Metrich, N., Bertagnini, A., Landi, P., Rosi, M., Belhadj, O. (2005) Triggering mechanism
at the origin of paroxysms at Stromboli (Aeolian Archipelago, Italy): The April 5 2003
eruption. Gepohysical Research Letters, 32: ISSN: 0094-8276.
Schiavi, F., Tiepolo, M., Pompilio, M. Vannucci R. (2006) Tracking magma dynamics by
Laser Ablation (LA)-ICPMS trace element analysis of glass in volcanic ash: the 1995
activity of Mt. Etna, Geophysical Research Letters, 33, 10.1029/2005GL024789.
Cioni, R., D’Oriano, C., Bertagnini, A. (2008) Fingerprinting ash deposits of small scale
eruptions by their physical and textural features. J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res. In press.
124
V2 - Paroxysms
RU V2/3
Scientific Responsible: Sonia Calvari, senior researcher, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e
Vulcanologia, Sezione di Catania, Piazza Roma 2, 95123 Catania, Italy, email:
[email protected], tel: 39 095 7165862, fax: 39 095 435801
RU Composition:
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
Man/Months 2nd
phase
3
Man/Months 1st
phase
1
1
Man/Months 2nd
phase
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
INGV-Catania
INGV-Catania
INGV-Catania
INGV-Catania
3
1
0
1
3
1
0
1
0
0
Researcher
Technician
Technician
Technologist
Full Professor
Senior Researcher
Technologist
Researcher
Senior Researcher
Technician
University
Palermo
INGV-Catania
INGV-OV
INGV-Catania
INGV-Catania
INGV-OV
INGV-Catania
INGV-Catania
INGV-Catania
INGV-Catania
INGV-Catania
3
2
1
0
0.5
0
1
0
3
1
3
2
1
0
0.5
0
1
0
3
1
Senior Researcher
PhD student
Technician
PhD student
Technologist
INGV-Pisa
INGV-Catania
INGV-Catania
INGV-Catania
INGV-Catania
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
0
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Sonia Calvari
Senior researcher
INGV-Catania
Participants
Position
Institution
Daniele Andronico
Don Baker
Researcher
Full Professor
Emilio Biale
Michael Burton
Tommaso
Caltabiano
Daniele Carbone
Rosa Anna Corsaro
Antonio Cristaldi
Salvatore
Giammanco
Alessandro La
Spina
Luigi Lodato
Enrica Marotta
Lucia Messina
Lucia Miraglia
Giovanni Orsi
Domenico Patané
Emilio Pecora
Margherita Polacci
Eugenio Privitera
Salvatore
Rapisarda
Gilberto Saccorotti
Giuseppe Salerno
Luciano Scuderi
Letizia Spampinato
Luciano Zuccarello
Technician
Senior Researcher
Senior
Technologist
Researcher
Researcher
Ass. Ricerca
Researcher
INGV-Catania
University St.
Montreal, Canada
INGV-Catania
INGV-Catania
INGV-Catania
PhD Student
Task 1
The dynamics of persistently active volcanoes are governed by complex phenomena.
Understanding these phenomena is a prerequisite for (i) a more robust definition of
volcanic alert levels and (ii) a better knowledge of the physical and chemical processes of
mass transfers, essential for volcanic hazard evaluation. The main scientific objective of
125
this project is the study of the short-term phenomena driving the persistent explosive
activity of Stromboli. To this aim, we propose to: (i) design a multi-parameter mobile array
to be placed close to the active craters and assess, through short-period experiments (a few
days), how various geophysical, volcanological and geochemical parameters are affected
by the processes driving persistent activity, and (ii) perform joint analyses and modeling of
the signals, to improve our understanding of these processes, in turn advancing the
possibilities and the effectiveness of volcano monitoring. The proposed experiment
includes portable spring gravimeters, thermal cameras, broadband seismometer arrays (also
in collaboration with RU Martini and Ripepe), infrasonic sensors (also in collaboration
with RU Ripepe), analyses of gas output (also in collaboration with RU Aiuppa and RU
Rizzo, and Cigolini, RU Ripepe), sampling of erupted products (in collaboration with
Taddeucci, RU Carapezza, and Landi, RU Bertagnini), and analyses of electric data from
newly installed devices (in collaboration with Büttner and Zimanowski, RU Dellino).
Broadband seismometer arrays will (i) infer the seismic features associated with the
dynamics of shallow gas slug ascent and (ii) identify ground oscillations likely to induce
apparent gravity changes. Infrasonic sensors would temporarily extend and integrate the
permanent array (RU Ripepe), with the aim of recognizing the dynamics of large gas slugs
in the uppermost portion of the conduit. Electric, thermal, gas composition and video data,
together with sampling of ejecta (ash, scorias and lapilli) and relative analyses for
components and chemistry, will complete the picture for the portion outside the conduit,
allowing us to relate what is revealed by the geophysical surveys with the eruptive
dynamics obtained by the analysis of volcanological parameters. Constraints on the
velocity, volume and composition of gas emitted during explosions will be obtained
through integrated geochemical, infrared and ultraviolet imaging measurements performed
with an FTIR spectrometer, the permanent SO2 flux network, FLIR infrared cameras, and
UV imaging systems. In conclusion, we propose that a task-force of experts, ideally
coming from all the RUs participating to this project, perform short-term multi-disciplinary
experiments at Stromboli’s summit dedicated to the assessment, analysis and interpretation
of the mechanisms driving persistent explosive activity. We expect that the joint
analysis/modeling of the multi-parametric dataset will furnish information allowing a
better understanding of the processes that maintain persistent activity at Stromboli, and that
could tip the system out of equilibrium into paroxysm, and provide constraints on the
geometrical characteristics of the shallower conduit system. Once the first dataset is
acquired, further field experiments will be made more efficient and effective. This will in
turn benefit the end users, who include civil defense authorities. In addition, the effect of
ash on thermal images recorded during volcanic monitoring will be carefully investigated
through large-scale experiments carried out in collaboration with RU Dellino. Comparison
between the results of these experiments and thermal images recorded at the summit of
Stromboli in 2007 will allow us to interpreting the different explosive activity that has
characterised the transitional phase after the end of the last effusive eruption.
Task 2 and 3
The period between the end of the 2002-03 eruption and the start of the 2007 effusive crisis
was characterised by a few peaks of number and intensity of explosions and maximum
temperature recorded at the summit craters by thermal surveys. However, only the last one
of these peaks led to an effusive eruption, whereas the others would have brought to false
alarms. Thus, there is a need to better analyse and compare what has been recorded and
measured by the different monitoring systems, in order to extract the most important
anomalies that might herald a significant transition between explosive and effusive
activity. In addition, although neither major explosions nor paroxysms occurred during this
126
lapse of time, we propose to better investigate and analyse the images recorded by the
camera network and the erupted products collected during the period in between the two
flank eruptions, in order to quantify the explosive activity. This will be done analysing: (1)
the thermal image data set collected during helicopter and field surveys; (2) the images
recorded by the monitoring fixed camera network; (3) the pyroclastic products (bombs,
lapilli, ash and scorias) erupted during the explosive activity from 2002 to 2007. The
thermal images collected during the 2007 eruption will be analysed in order to reconstruct
the processes of emplacement of the lava flow field, and the results compared with the
growth processes observed during the previous lava output. This work will benefit from the
comparison with laboratory simulations of explosions carried out in collaboration with the
RU Dellino in controlled conditions. During the experiments, the artificial explosions will
be targeted with the same thermal camera used for volcano monitoring, in order to obtain
also corrections and quantifications for the amount of fine-grained particles able to filter
the high-temperature target of the eruptive column. Software automatically analysing the
images of the INGV-CT fixed web-cameras will be realised in order to improve and
quantify the classification of the explosive activity. Morphological, grain size, textural and
compositional studies will be carried out on selected samples in the Laboratories of INGVCT, while synchrotron x-ray microtomography (µCT) 3D measurements on the scoria of
selected explosive event will be performed at Elettra, in Trieste. These activities will be
provided in collaboration with Taddeucci (RU Carapezza), RU Bertagnini. The complete
ash dataset will also be analysed (in collaboration with UR Aiuppa) and integrated for the
chemical composition of the water-soluble fraction, by using conventional leaching
procedures followed by ICP-MS determinations. Measurements will focus on the
measurement and quantitative interpretation of volatile ratios S/Cl and S/F in the soluble
salts adhering on fresh ash surfaces. It is in fact widely accepted that these volatile ratios in
ash leacheates are representative of the composition of the volcanic gas plume they have
been interacting with during their atmospheric dispersion. The analysis of the time
variations of volatile ratios in ash thus offers an indirect but safe way to retrieve
compositional volcanic gas data.
1.
2.
3.
4.
Design and optimization of the multi-parameter mobile array;
Execution of the first multi-parameter experiment at the summit of Stromboli;
Cross-analysis of the first joint dataset;
Installation of electric sensors (in collaboration with Zimanowski and Büttner, RU
Dellino);
5. Analysis of the thermal images collected in the period 2003-2007 and extraction of
preliminary data to be used as input in the multi-parametric alert system;
6. Analysis of data deriving from visual, petrological and geochemical monitoring in
order to select samples to study;
7. Textural analysis and measurements of major element content in glass;
8. Synchrotron x-ray microtomography 3D measurements;
9. Leacheate measurements;
10. Integrated report including laboratory measurements;
11. Development of software for image analysis of camera-recordings.
1. Execution of the second multi-parameter experiment;
2. Cross-analysis of the second joint dataset and comparison with the first one;
127
3. Inversion of the datasets, location of joint sources and definition of their driving
mechanisms;
4. Petrographycal, vesicle size and distribution analyses;
5. Measurements of major element content in glass;
6. Synchrotron x-ray microtomography 3D measurements;
7. Leacheate measurements;
8. Integrated report including laboratory measurements and evaluation of possible
precursors of effusive/ and paroxysmal eruptions according to final results of the
project.
1st year
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
16100
0,00
0,00
0,00
16300
0,00
3600
0,00
0,00
36000
0,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
Totale
2nd year
Categoria di spesa
0,00
12000
0,00
0,00
0,00
15000
0,00
3000
0,00
30000
0,00
Totale
128
0,00
Total
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
28100
0,00
0,00
0,00
31300
0,00
6600
0,00
66000
0,00
Totale
0,00
Sonia Calvari is senior researcher at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia,
Sezione di Catania (INGV-CT). She has a Ph.D. in Hazard Assessment (Lancaster
University, Lancaster (United Kingdom), and a B.Sc. (full marks cum laude) in Geological
Sciences (Università degli Studi della Calabria, Cosenza, Italy). Duties: Coordination of
the Volcano Monitoring for INGV (TTC 1.5), about 120 scientists. Coordination of
Volcanology and Geochemistry Division (25 scientists) within INGV-CT. Coordinator for
INGV of the volcanological monitoring during eruptive crisis at Etna and Stromboli
volcanoes from 2001 till now. Research interests: eruptive processes; lava flows and lava
tubes; maars and diatremes; basaltic tephra deposits; instability of volcanoes;
sedimentology of volcaniclastic deposits; thermal imagery applied to volcano monitoring.
Author of more than 60 papers in national and international journals; editor of an AGU
geophysical monograph (Etna volcano laboratory) printed in 2004, and of a second AGU
geophysical monograph (Learning from Stromboli and its 2002-03 eruptive crisis) that will
be printed by 2008.
Burton, M., Allard, P., Muré, F., La Spina, A., 2007. Magmatic Gas Composition Reveals
the Source Depth of Slug-Driven Strombolian Explosive Activity. Science, Vol. 317. no.
5835, pp. 227 - 230, DOI: 10.1126/science.1141900.
Calvari S., Spampinato L., Lodato L., Harris A.J.L., Patrick M.R., Dehn J., Burton M.,
Andronico D. 2005. Complex volcanic processes observed with a hand-held thermal
camera during the 2002-2003 flank eruption at Stromboli volcano (Italy). J. Geophys.
Res, 110, B02201, doi: 10.1029/2004JB003129.
Carbone, D., Zuccarello, L., Saccorotti, G., Greco, F., 2006. Analysis of simultaneous
gravity and tremor anomalies observed during the 2002-2003 Etna eruption. Earth Plan.
Sc. Lett., 245, 616–629.
Lodato L., Spampinato L., Harris A.J.L., Calvari S., Dehn J., and Patrick M. (2007) - The
Morphology and Evolution of the Stromboli 2002-03 Lava Flow Field: An Example of
129
Basaltic Flow Field Emplaced on a Steep Slope. Bulletin of Volcanology, DOI
10.1007/s00445-006-0101-6, 69, 661-679.
Patrick M.R., Harris A.J.L., Ripepe M., Dehn J., Rothery D.A., Calvari S. (2007) –
Strombolian explosive styles and source conditions: insights from thermal (FLIR) video.
Bulletin of Volcanology, DOI 10.1007/s00445-006-0107-0, 69, 769-784.
130
V2 - Paroxysms
RU V2/04
Scientific Responsible: Maria Luisa Carapezza, ricercatore, INGV-Sezione Roma 1, Via
Vigna Murata 605, 00143, Roma, Italy, email: [email protected], tel: 39 06 51860370,
fax: 39 06 51860565
RU Composition:
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Maria Luisa
Carapezza
Researcher
INGV-Roma 1
Participants
Position
Institution
Cataldo Acerra
Franco Barberi
S. Barde-Cabusson
Anthony Finizola
Salvatore
Giammanco
Giuliana Mele
Valeria Misiti
Franco Parello
Sabatino Piscitelli
Lucia Pruiti
Massimo Ranaldi
André Revil
Technician
Full professor
Post-doc fellow
Researcher
Researcher
INGV-CNT
Uni Roma Tre
Uni Firenze
IPGP, France
INGV Catania
Senior researcher
Technologist
Full professor
Researcher
Technologist
PhD Student
Researcher
Man/Months
1st phase
3
Man/Months
1st phase
1
2
3
2
1
INGV Roma 1
1
INGV Roma 1
1
Uni Palermo
2
IMAA – CNR, Potenza
1
INGV Catania
2*
Uni Roma Tre
3
Colorado School of Mines,
1
USA
Tullio Ricci
Researcher
INGV Roma 1
3
Enzo Rizzo
Researcher
IMAA – CNR, Potenza
1
Carlo Salvaterra
Technician
INGV-CNT
1
Piergiorgio Scarlato
Senior researcher
INGV Roma 1
0
Barbara Suski
Post-doc fellow
Universitè de Lausanne,
1
Suisse
Jacopo Taddeucci
Researcher
INGV Roma 1
3
Guido Ventura
Senior researcher
INGV Roma 1
2
Man/Months
2nd phase
3
Man/Months
2nd phase
1
2
3
2
1
1
1
2
1
2*
3
1
3
1
1
0
1
3
2
Task 2 and 3
The work plan of the RU contains the following four main tasks.
1. (coord. F. Barberi) In order to identify reliable precursors for major explosions and
paroxysms, it is of crucial importance to establish and characterize, as precisely as
possible, the different types of more energetic explosions that actually occur at Stromboli
and namely: the eruptive dynamics, the nature of erupted ejecta and the state of the volcano
at the moment of their occurrence (e.g. ordinary Strombolian activity ongoing or
interrupted, open or obstructed vents, temporal relations with effusive activity, etc.). This
should permit to identify the likely triggering mechanism and hence to infer the possible
physical and chemical precursors. With this aim, we propose to carry out a critical review
131
by updating and integrating the historical data on the eruptive activity of Stromboli
published by Barberi et al. (1993).
2. (coord. M.L. Carapezza) Major explosions and paroxysms occur in response to a
high volatile pressure increase in the eruptive system. This should likely produce a
significant increase of the CO2 release to the surface, as the one observed before the onset
of the December 2002 eruption that actually initiated with a strong explosion (Carapezza et
al., 2004). Deep reaching radial fractures with evidence of a preferential degassing, are
ideal sites to investigate changes in the soil CO2 release and pressure gradient in relation to
the volcanic activity. The proposing RU is maintaining since March 2007 two CO2 soil
flux automatic stations (recording also the environmental parameters that may affect the
gas flux) at Rina Grande and Nel Cannestrà, two important anomalously degassing flank
fractures (Finizola et al., 2006), where two tiltmeters belonging to the RU Ripepe (UniFi)
recorded an important positive ground motion anomaly shortly before the 15 March 2007
paroxysm. Near each soil flux station, a high sensivity pressure transducer has been also
installed to continuously measure soil gas pressure gradients (UniPa). Data on CO2 soil
flux and soil P-gradient from these two stations will be regularly collected, filtrated by the
environmental influence and compared with seismic, tiltmetric, geochemical data provided
by the Stromboli monitoring network, as well as with data indicative of the eruptive
activity level. We plan to install in the crater area another, more sensitive P-gradient
sensor. For Stromboli paroxysms there is convincing evidence that they are triggered by
injection into the shallow crystallized and degassed magma, of a batch of deep gas-rich,
poorly crystallized magma. The increasing influx of magmatic gases released by
depressurization of the rising magma should produce recognizable physico-chemical
modifications in the basal thermal aquifer of the island, particularly an increase of
dissolved CO2 (e.g. Carapezza et al., 2004; Capasso et al., 2005). We propose to collect
and process physico-chemical data (P, T, pH, Conductivity, dissolved CO2 and CH4) in the
ad-hoc drilled Limoneto well, by an automatic station already tested at Stromboli. In
addition we plan to carry out, in the 2nd year, the experimentation in the same thermal well
of a continuous recording of chemical data by means of a quadrupole device adapted for
automatic analysis.
3. (coord. A. Finizola) Previous geophysical-geochemical investigations indicated that
a large part of the crater depression contained a shallow geothermal system (Finizola et al.,
2006 and references therein). This system was involved in the huge fracturation and
collapses that affected the crater area in March 2007, as indicated also by the occurrence of
the so-called “hybrid” seismic events. We propose to investigate the crater area with the
same techniques previously used (e.g. geoelectrical, self-potential s.p., temperature and
CO2-flux profiles) in order to assess the structural-hydrogeological-geothermal conditions
left after the 2007 collapses. We propose also to test in the crater area a Campbell station
for the continuous (every minute) recording of self potential data. This should allow to
timely recognize perturbations related to the level of activity of the volcano, such as
variations of P, T, fluid release from circumcrateric fractures.
4. (coord. J. Taddeucci) Features of volcanic ash reflect the chemical-physical
processes operative in explosively erupting conduits. At Stromboli, such processes are
expected to show systematic variations before activity shifts from ordinary Strombolian to
lava effusion or to major or paroxysmal explosions. We will search precursors to activity
shifts by sampling and analyzing ash from individual Strombolian explosions. We will join
other RUs in the multiparametric experiments on the Strombolian activity by: 1) analyzing
unparalleled time-resolved videos (0.25 ms inter-frame interval) of the explosions; and 2)
analyzing ash particles sampled directly within explosion plumes by using a remote control
aeromodel equipped with webcam, thermometer, and GPS. Ash features, automatically
characterized under a Field Emission SEM, will provide information on the porosity,
132
crystallinity, chemical composition, and fragmentation processes of magma in the upper
conduit during individual explosions, to be integrated with the information collected by the
other RUs.
1. Critical review of historical paroxysms and major explosions (advancement report);
2. Acquisition and processing of CO2 soil flux and soil P-gradient data from the
automated stations and of the physico-chemical data from Limoneto well;
3. Assessment of the present structure and hydrogeology of the crater area by means
of multidisciplinary investigations (geoelectric, self-potential, T and CO2 flux);
4. Acquisition, installation and testing of the automated s.p. Campbell station in the
crater area;
5. First set of ash samples and high-speed videos of individual explosions.
6. Preliminary data on volcanic ash features.
1. Critical review of historical paroxysms and major explosions: identification of the
main types in relation to the state of activity of the volcano; triggering phenomena
and expected precursors;
2. Acquisition and processing of data from CO2 soil flux and soil P-gradient stations
and comparison with seismic, tiltmetric and other geochemical signals and with the
activity level of the volcano;
3. Installation and testing at Limoneto well of an automated quadrupole geochemical
station;
4. Acquisition of s.p. data from the Campbell automated station; comparison with the
level of activity at the craters;
5. Second set of ash samples and high-speed videos of individual explosions.
6. Integrated database of ash features and geophysical-volcanological markers of a
variety of explosion styles.
7. Elaboration of a database and contribution to the development of the
multidisciplinary alert system.
1st year
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
2500
5600
1000
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
13400
133
2500
Totale
25000
2nd year
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
2500
6600
2000
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
11400
2500
Totale
25000
Total
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
17200
3000
24800
5000
Totale
50000
Maria Luisa Carapezza
Date of birth: 30.12.1963 Nationality: Italian
Education. 1987 - Degree in Geological Sciences (full marks cum laude), Università di
Palermo.
Professional experience. 1999 to present: Researcher at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica
e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Roma 1. 1989-1998: Technologist at the Institute of
Mineralogy, Petrography and Geochemistry of Palermo University, with the responsibility
134
of the water and gas geochemical labs. 1990-1998: scientific collaboration with the IGFC.N.R. (today INGV-Sezione di Palermo) and with the National Volcanology Group
(GNV) for geochemical surveillance of Italian active volcanoes.
Research interests. Fluid geochemistry applied to volcano surveillance and to the study of
thermal waters, fumarolic and soil gases at Vulcano, Stromboli, Ischia, Pantelleria, Etna,
Colli Albani, as well as to the origin of gases in volcanic and geothermal areas. Soil gas
studies aimed at the identification of active degassing structures in volcanic and seismic
areas. Experimentation of automatic stations for the recognition of geochemical precursors
of eruptions (Stromboli, Etna, Vulcano, Colli Albani). Participation to the scientific teams
working on volcanic emergencies at Vulcano (1989-1996 crises), Etna (1989, 1991-1993
and 2001), Stromboli 2002-03 and 2007. Gas hazard studies at Colli Albani, Mts. Sabatini,
Mts. Vulsini, Vulcano and Stromboli. Scientific educational activity on volcanic hazard,
with the responsibility of the GNV-INGV Centers of Volcano and Stromboli.
Barberi F., M. Rosi, A. Sodi. (1993), Volcanic hazard assessment at Stromboli based on
review of historical data. Acta Volcanol. 3, 173-187.
Capasso G., M. L. Carapezza, C. Federico, S. Inguaggiato, A. Rizzo (2005), The 20022003 eruption at Stromboli volcano (Italy): precursory changes in the carbon and helium
isotopic composition of fumarole gases and thermal waters. Bull. Volcanol. 68, 118–
134. doi: 10.1007/s00445-005-0427-5.
Carapezza M. L., S. Inguaggiato, L. Brusca, M. Longo (2004), Geochemical precursors at
an open-conduit volcano: the Stromboli 2002-2003 eruptive events. Geophys. Res. Lett.
31, LO 7620, doi:10.1029/2004GL019614, 2004.
Finizola A., Revil A., Rizzo E., Piscitelli S., Ricci T., Morin J., Angeletti B., Mocochain
L., Sortino F. (2006), Hydrogeological insight at Stromboli volcano (Italy) from
geoelectrical, temperature and CO2 soil degassing investigations. Geophys. Res. Lett.,
33, L17304 doi: 10.1029/2006GL026842.
Taddeucci J., Scarlato P., Andronico D., Cristaldi A., Zimanowski B., Büttner R., Küppers
U. (2007) Advances in the study of volcanic ash. Eos, Transaction of the American
Geophysical Union, 88 (24): 253-260.
135
V2 - Paroxysms
RU V2/5
Scientific Responsible: Pierfrancesco Dellino, Professore Ordinario, Via E. Orabona, 4,
70125, Bari, Italy, email: [email protected], tel: 080-5442603, fax: 080 5442591
RU Composition:
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Pierfrancesco
Dellino
Prof. Ordinario
UniBa
Participants
Position
Institution
Luigi La Volpe
Roberto Sulpizio
Daniela Mele
Domenico Doronzo
Bernd Zimanowski
Prof. Ordinario
Ricercatore
Ass. Ric
Dottorando
Prof. Associato
Ralf Buettner
Ricercatore
Thomas Braun
Tecnologo
UniBa
UniBa
UniBa
UniBa
UniWuerz
(Germany)
UniWuerz
(Germany)
INGV-Rm1
Man/Months 1st
phase
6
Man/Months 2nd
phase
6
Man/Months 1st
phase
6
6
6
4
4
Man/Months 2nd
phase
6
6
6
4
4
4
4
1
1
Task 2 and 3
During the last several years the normal eruptive activity at Stromboli has been punctuated
by major explosions and by the so called “paroxysm” events, characterized by the emission
of gas-particle jets and plumes, with various amount of fine-grained volcanic ash. The
actual unpredictability of such transient events and the complex interplay among magma
properties at fragmentation, overpressure at the locus of explosion and time-dependent
evolution of the gas particle mixture, make very difficult both the physical modeling of
eruption and also a proper monitoring of its escalation. In addition, the effect of ash on
thermal images recorded during volcanic monitoring has not yet been properly evaluated.
We propose in this research to perform large-scale experiments on the generation of gasparticle jets and plumes and the installation of electrical sensors arrays for both
contributing to the understanding of the inception and evolution of the process and its
monitoring in real time at Stromboli. These experiments will be carried out in collaboration
with RU Calvari in order to test and calibrate the effect of ash particles on thermal images,
allowing to interpreting the different explosive activity recorded by thermal images at the
summit of Stromboli in 2007.
Large-scale experiments will be performed using the recently implemented experimental
facility of the Centro Interdipartimentale per il Rischio Sismico e Vulcanico of Bari
University (Dellino et al., 2007). During experiments, by means of rapid coupling of a
known volume of compressed gas to ash particles, jets and plumes will be generated.
Pressure, velocities and density of the gas-particle mixture will be measured both at the
exit of the experimental conduit and during the evolution into the atmosphere. Parameters
136
will be changed in order to understand their relative influence on the eruptive scenario.
Experiments will be performed both at ambient temperature and at high temperature.
Sensors and video cameras will be used to monitor experiments and capture the evolution
of the main physical quantities of the gas-particle mixture, together with sampling and
characterization of the dispersed particles. Thermal cameras will be also used in
collaboration with RU Calvari, and a function for reconstructing plume temperature by
camera image sequences will be searched for.
Electrical sensors arrays of the type already developed and used at Stromboli (Buttner et
al., 2000) by researchers of the Physical Volcanology Laboratory of Wurzburg University
(participating in this Research Unit) will be installed. The method is based on the direct
detection of variations of the electrostatic field caused by generation (fragmentation) and
emission of volcanic ash into the atmosphere during volcanic eruptions. With the use of
specially designed laboratory and field experiments, it is demonstrated, that the intensity of
the measured signals is proportional to the amount of released energy of volcanic
eruptions. Furthermore, the recorded signals provide information on mass and density of
the erupted particle clouds. In this research project (part of the multidisciplinary
experiment on the summit of Stromboli) electrical sensors will be installed on the summit
of Stromboli and the detected signals will be recorded together with the data of the other
instruments (e.g. seismics, optical, thermal) on the same time base. This way the
multidisciplinary interpretation will be facilitated. Calibration of the electrical signals
detected on Stromboli will additionally provide quantitative insight into the respective
eruptions: using identical, but mobile electrical stations at the large scale experiment
conducted by Centro Interdipartimentale per il Rischio Sismico e Vulcanico of Bari
University calibration in respect to amounts and densities of the generated jets and plumes
and the kinetic energy release will be achieved and fed back into the modelling of eruption
dynamics of Stromboli.
By combining data from experiments (pressure sensors, video sequences, thermal camera
images, electrical sensors), fitting parameters and scaling laws will be searched for in order
to obtain correlation functions between explosion energy, gas-particle mixture density, and
temperature as a function of the released electrostatic signal. By these laws, an electrical
sensor array joined by a thermal camera mounted on Stromboli should be used for
reconstructing the energy of explosive events and other physical parameters of eruptions
(locus of explosion, gas-particle mixture density), to be matched with the other monitored
geophysical signals.
1. Data base of large scale experiments
2. Exploratory statistics and correlation between parameters
1. fitting among pressure, particle concentration and exit velocity of jets and plumes
2. Scaling laws
137
1st year
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
7000
0,00
0,00
0,00
13000
Totale
0,00
0,00
0,00
20000
0,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
2nd year
Categoria di spesa
0,00
9000
0,00
0,00
0,00
11000
Totale
0,00
0,00
0,00
20000
0,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
Total
Categoria di spesa
138
0,00
22000
0,00
0,00
0,00
18000
Totale
0,00
0,00
0,00
40000
0,00
Pierfrancesco Dellino is full professor of Volcanology, Dipartimento Geomineralogico, at
the University of Bari - Italy. Since the middle of 80’s his scientific activity has been
focused on various aspects of Physical Volcanology, with particular emphasis on the
fragmentation and transportation processes of explosive eruptions. He has participated,
also as coordinator, to research programs funded by the Ministry of University, by Civil
Protection and by the European Union. He has been in particular involved in the study of
the hazard of explosive eruptions of Eolian Islands (Vulcano and Lipari), and in recent
times of Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei. He cooperates with international research groups,
and in the last years he is carrying on multidisciplinary researches in collaboration with
scientists of the Physical Volcanology esperimental laboratory of
the Wuerzburg University – Germany (B. Zimanowski, R. Buettner) on the fragmentation
mechanisms and energy budget of explosive eruptions.
Pierfrancesco Dellino is member of the executive committee of IAVCEI.
Dellino, P., Zimanowski, B., Buettner, R., La Volpe, L., Mele, D., Sulpizio, R. (2007).
Large-scale experiments on the mechanics of pyroclastic flows: Design, engineering ,
and first results. J. Geoph. Res., 112, B04202, doi:10.1029/2006JB004313.
Dellino P., Mele D., Bonasia R., Braia G., La Volpe L., Sulpizio R. (2005). The analysys of
the influence of pumice shape on its terminal velocity. Geoph. Res. Lett., 0094-8276
Büttner, R., Dellino, P., Raue, H., Sonder, I., and Zimanowski, B. (2006): Stress induced
brittle fragmentation of magmatic melts: Theory and experiments. J. Geophys. Res., 111,
B08204, doi:101029/2005JB003958
Buttner R, Zimanowski B, Roder H. (2000) Short –time electrical effects during volcanic
eruptions. Experiments and field measurements. J. Geophys. Res., 105 (B2): 2819-2827
Büttner, R., Röder, H., and Zimanowski, B., 1997: Electrical effects generated by
experimental volcanic explosions. Appl. Phys. Lett., 70, 1903-1905.
139
V2 - Paroxysms
RU V2/6
Scientific Responsible: Dott. Fawzi Doumaz, Primo ricercatore, Istituto Nazionale di
Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Centro Nazionale Terremoti, Via di Vigna Murata 605, Roma,
email: [email protected], tel: 06-51860421, fax: 06-51860507
RU Composition:
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Fawzi Doumaz
Primo
Ricercatore
INGV-CNT
Participants
Position
Institution
M.Fabrizia
Buongiorno
Stefano Vinci
Cristiano
Tolomei
Massimo
Musacchio
Claudia Spinetti
Laura Colini
Dirigente
Tecnologo
CTER
Ricercatore
Assegnista di
Ricerca
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Man/Months 1st Man/Months
phase
2nd phase
4
4
INGV-CNT
Man/Months
1st phase
2
Man/Months
2nd phase
2
INGV-CNT
INGV-CNT
1
1
1
1
INGV-CNT
1
1
INGV-CNT
INGV-CNT
1
1
1
1
Task 2, 3
The activities of the UR will be directed to the construction and implementation of a
database that will host the data produced by the RUs participating to this project. These
data will represent and describe important parameters of the Stromboli activity. On the
other hand, and for visualisation and interpretation scopes, a web-based graphic interface
will be realised to show all the provided parameters along a time scale. The parameters will
be synchronized, emphasizing particular events, related to abnormal fluctuations due to
potential interdependent phenomena. Having this kind of interface, eventual alert patterns
can be identified and transmitted or observed by Civil Defence Department.
The database will be a kind of data repository, populated with data provided and upgraded
by all the RUs participant. A defined protocol and data specification format will be
established to create a standard that will be used by all the RUs. The data will consist in
file-based numerical values, each file will describe a single parameter variation along time,
given by the corresponding RU. The system will be connected to a remote sensing
database (satellite and airborne images) in order to display the available images in the
visible time window, that is, to give to users a synoptic view of the volcano if needed and
for other parameters that remote sensing can provide from image processing such as gas
emission and thermal characterisation. Every RU will provide its own interpretation model
in order to enable the system to have selected and appropriate facilities. These
interpretation models will facilitate comparison between different kinds of data, and will
140
be upgraded by each RU as soon as the analysis proceeds and new results are obtained.
This Web instrument will provide also a basic statistical tool that will be available for each
parameter in order to help interpreters to detect abnormal trends or variations. After the
data upload, a quality check will be applied in order to check the consistency of the data
files. Once the quality check is done, the data will be server-side processed and sent to the
graphic interface. To view the system, the authorised users will connect with a web
browser. The system will be available as soon as it will be online during the first year of
the project and will be reached by all the participants comprising the Civil Defence
Department. The system will be also available during all its development phases. This
instrument will work as a main data container to test the prototypal “Integrate
Multidisciplinary Alert System” (IMAS) developed within the project.
Satellite data acquisition and processing: the URX will acquire and analyze satellite data in
order to produce information related to the gas emission and thermal characterization of
Stromboli during different phases of volcanic activity. In particular, satellite data will be
used to estimate SO2 content and flux emitted in the plume (NASA-ASTER, NOAAAVHRR, NASA-MODIS). Some test will be carried out to validate the CO2 retrieval
methods starting from infrared hyperspectral data compared with the ground data acquired
by other RUs. A second analysis will be carried out on the thermal characteristics (thermal
anomalies and effusion rate) of the summit area of the volcano by using satellite (NASAASTER, NOAA-AVHRR, NASA-MODIS) and airborne data (MIVIS, others). The large
database collected during the last 5-6 years will be used to analyze evidences of changes
by means of satellite or airborne images which may help the understanding of precursors of
paroxysms. The available data composed in terms of time series and estimated parameters
will be introduced in the developed database, and will then be used in the multi-parametric
analysis.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Development of data repository and preliminary web-based graphic interfaces
Quality control interface development
Consolidation of the complete data handling and display system
Data set selection for the multi-parametric processing.
Upload of data for test
Satellite data acquisition and organization
Satellite data analysis
Interpretation models integration
First Alert tests
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Upload of the real data produced by the project RUs
Time series data representation
Final Alert facilities
Basic statistical tools
Release of the final system
141
1st year
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
3000
0,00
0,00
0,00
9600
0,00
1400
0,00
0,00
14000
0,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
Totale
2nd year
Categoria di spesa
0,00
3000
0,00
0,00
0,00
9600
0,00
1400
0,00
0,00
14000
0,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
Totale
Total
Categoria di spesa
142
0,00
6000
0,00
0,00
0,00
19200
0,00
2800
0,00
28000
0,00
Totale
0,00
Curriculum of Fawzi Doumaz:
Born and raised in Algeria, Fawzi Doumaz began his research career at the Centre de
Recherches en Astrophysique Astronomie and Geophysique of Algiers, as part of a team in
seismotectonic and paleoseismology. His first works interested the seismic zone of Asnam
(Algeria) witness of a violent earthquake on October 10, 1980 (M = 7.3). In 1996, and
thanks to a scientific agreement CRAAG-INGV, he came to Italy to work on high
resolution digital terrain models for seismic areas. Starting from this work and through the
use of GIS tools, he is now developing GIS tools and software, working on Geodatabases
and realizing Web-Gis. Senior researcher of National Earthquake Centre, he is nowadays
developing new procedures and software for real-time seismic monitoring.
5 most relevant publications:
M. Meghraoui, F. Doumaz, (1996) Earthquake induced flooding and paleoseismicity of
the El Asnam, Algeria, fault-related fold, Journal of Geophysical Research. Vol 101
N°B8.
S. Stramondo, M. Saroli, C. Tolomei, M. Moro, F. Doumaz, A. Pesci, F.
Loddo, P. Baldi, E. Boschi, (2007) Surface movements in Bologna (Po Plain —
Italy) detected by multitemporal DInSAR, Remote Sensing of Environment,
April 2007, doi:10.1016/j.rse.2007.02.023.
M. Moro, L. Amicucci, F. R. Cinti, F. Doumaz, P. Montone, S. Pierdominici, M. Saroli, S.
Stramondo, B. Di Fiore (2007) - Surface evidence of active tectonics along the PergolaMelandro fault: A critical issue for the seismogenic potential of the southern Apennines,
Italy. Journal of Geodynamics 44 (2007) 19–32
Moro M., Saroli M., Salvi S., Stramondo S. and Doumaz F., The relationship between
seismic deformation and gravitational movements: an example from the area of the 1997
Umbria-Marche (Central Italy) earthquakes. Geomorphology 89, Issues 3-4, (2007) 297307.
M. Moro, M. Saroli, S. Stramondo, F. Doumaz, F. Guglielmino and A. Biasini, Large
scale gravity-driven-phenomena movements detection, trough integrated approach of
photogeological and InSAR analysis, 5th International Symposium on Eastern
Mediterranean Geology, Thessaloniki, Greece
143
V2 - Paroxysms
RU V2/7
Scientific Responsible: Marcello Martini, Technologist Director, INGV “Osservatorio
Vesuviano”, Via Diocleziano, 328 80124, Napoli, Italy, email: [email protected], tel:
081-6108483, fax: 081-6102304
RU Composition:
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Marcello Martini
Technologist
Director
INGV-OV
Participants
Position
Luca D’Auria
Walter De Cesare
Antonietta Esposito
Flora Giudicepietro
Massimo Orazi
Rosario Peluso
Giovanni Scarpato
Alan Linde
Researcher
Technologist
Researcher
Researcher
Technologist
Technologist
Technologist
Staff Member,PhD
Institution
Man/Months 1st
phase
1
Man/Months 2nd
phase
1
Man/Months 1st
phase
2
1
2
2
1*
1*
1*
0,5
Man/Months 2nd
phase
2
1
2
2
1*
1*
1*
0,5
INGV-OV
INGV-OV
INGV-OV
INGV-OV
INGV-OV
INGV-OV
INGV-OV
Carnegie
Institution
Selwyn Sacks
Senior Yellow,
Carnegie
0,5
0,5
PhD
Institution
Task 1 & 2
After the onset of the 2002 Stromboli eruption, INGV started the deployment of a digital
broadband seismic network on the volcano. Each seismic station consists of Guralp CMG40T broadband sensors and INGV GAIA dataloggers. The April 5th 2003 paroxysmal
explosion was recorded by 8 stations. The broadband sensors have a cutoff frequency
response of about 0.033 Hz. Despite of this, the signals preceding the explosion showed a
clear Ultra-Long-Period component, that is to ascribe to a tilt rather than to the ground
velocity. This was confirmed by the recordings preceding the March 15th 2007 explosion.
At that time the network consisted of 13 seismic stations and two strainmeters deployed
during 2006. The strainmeters record the volumetric variations of the rocks surrounding
the sensor with a nominal sensitivity of 10-9. They recorded a signal indicating a
volumetric contraction, starting various minutes before the explosion, before it was
detectable by the seismic sensors. Both the tilt recorded by the broadband sensors and the
strain indicate an inflation of the volcanic edifice in response to a pressurization of the
shallow conduit. Since this phenomenon can be detected minutes before the actual
explosion occurs, it is an excellent candidate for the implementation of an early-warning
system.
For a correct interpretation of the data, an advanced modeling of the elastostatic field
generated by the conduit pressurization is needed. In the framework of the Task 1 we will
144
develop a code for computing the deformation of the volcano edifice in response to
arbitrary strain sources. This can be achieved through the computation of elementary strain
nuclei that can be used for representing complex sources. The code will take into account
the effect of the topography and of the lateral heterogeneity of the volcanic edifice. A
preliminary 2D test has shown successful results. The strain nuclei will be used for the
simultaneous inversion of the tilts retrieved from the seismic signals and the strains. The
inversion will provide an image of the evolution of the strain source before the explosions
and will be greatly useful for implementing the early-warning system.
The dataset requires first a careful preprocessing (Task 2). The tilt signals should be
extracted by the broadband recordings using “ad hoc” filtering techniques, while the
processing of the strain signals requires the removal of the background tidal oscillations,
the effects of atmospheric pressure variations and the effects of the temperature variations.
The early warning system will consist of a real-time preprocessing system of both seismic
and strain signals and of a detection of increasing ground deformation. The system will be
tested both with signals of actual explosions and with other signals in order to avoid false
triggers.
From a technological point of view the system will be designed in order to provide a rapid
dispatch of the warning messages a low sensitivity to the failure of some seismic and
strainmeter stations and robust self-check mechanism in order to guarantee its
functionality.
Task 3
One of the typical seismic signals recorded at Stromboli is related to the landslides often
occurring along the Sciara del Fuoco flank. These phenomena have a marked seasonal
trend: their occurrence is much more frequent during the summer, probably because of the
dry weather conditions.
On February 27th an anomalous occurrence of landslide signals was noticed by the
seismologist of INGV-OV more than 3 hours before the onset of the effusive eruption. So
the increased occurrence of landslides is a good short-term precursor to effusive eruptions
at Stromboli.
These signals have a peculiar spectral and waveform envelope signature that makes easy
its recognition by a human operator. Esposito et al. (2006) showed that a simple neural
network is able to successfully discriminate among seismic signals related to landslides,
explosions and the background volcanic tremor.
This technique can be applied also for a continuous analysis of signals in real-time. The
network implemented by Esposito et al (2006) will be specialized for the detection of
landslide signals. Then it will be tested both on the signals preceding the 2007 effusive
eruption and on signals recorded during normal activity in order to define thresholds for
sending automatic warning messages in case of anomalous patterns.
During the second year the procedure will be implemented on a real-time system.
1. Code for computing the elastostatic field generated by strain nuclei in realistic 3D
models. (Task 1)
2. Pre-processing of the datasets collected before the April 5th 2003 and March 15th
2007. (Task 2)
3. Testing of procedures for the detection of seismic signals related to landslides using
neural-networks. (Task 3)
145
1. Inversion of tilt and volumetric strain signals. (Task 1)
2. Implementation of an early-warning system of paroxysmal explosion based on the
broadband seismic signals and the strainmeter data. (Task 2)
3. Testing on the datasets collected before the April 5th 2003 and March 15th 2007.
(Task 2)
4. Implementation of procedures for real-time detection of seismic signals related to
landslides using neural-networks and an automatic warning system in case of
anomalous patterns. (Task 3)
1st year
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
2000
0,00
9000
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
0,00
7000
0,00
2000
0,00
0,00
20000
0,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
2000
0,00
9000
0,00
Totale
2nd year
Categoria di spesa
0,00
0,00
7000
0,00
2000
0,00
20000
0,00
Totale
146
0,00
Total
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
4000
0,00
18000
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
0,00
14000
0,00
4000
0,00
40000
0,00
Totale
0,00
- Education: Degree in Physics, University of Naples, 1977
- Present position: INGV Technologist Director
- INGV professional experiences:
Responsibile of the Working Unit "Monitoring Center" of the INGV Dept. “Osservatorio
Vesuviano” (2001-2007), Coordinator of the Seismic Monitoring of Active Volcanic
Areas for INGV (TTC1.4) (2005-2007), Director of the INGV dept. of Naples
“Osservatorio Vesuviano” (2007 to present)
- Scientific projects responsible:
"Seismic data analysis of the Brasimone zone" E.N.E.A. (1987), "Study of the Structures
in the Vocanic Areas" C.N.R. (1988 and 1989) ,"Study of the Microtremor using the
array" GNV-C.N.R (1991), "Multichanel analysis of the volcanic tremor" GNV-C.N.R
(1993-1995), "Study of the seismic sources on volcanic areas. Application of multichanel
techniques" as Resp. of Research Operative Unit GNV-C.N.R (1996-1998), “Dynamic of
the Strombolian Explosive Source” FIRB Project RBAU0152BJ_001 (2003), WP1-B1
“Installazione di sensori a larga banda in pozzo per lo studio della sismicità in aree
vulcaniche e tettoniche” of the “Sviluppo Nuove Tecnologie per la Protezione e Difesa
del Territorio dai Rischi Naturali” FIRB Project RBAP04EF3A_001
- Contract professor during the following academic years:
1983-1984 and 1984-1985 “Geophysics course” at the Depth. of Earth Science,
University of Calabria (Cosenza) Italy ; 1998-1999 and 2000-2001 “Seismology course”
at the Dept. of Physics, Univerity of Salerno, Italy
The scientific activity has been mainly addressed to the seismology of tectonic and
volcanic areas. At the INGV depth. “Osservatorio Vesuviano” he has been the
coordinator of the volcanoes seismic surveillance activities and the project manager of the
seismic network and the real-time analysis systems for multichannels array, short-period
and broad-band seismic signals.
147
M. Martini, F. Giudicepietro, L. D’Auria, A.M. Esposito, T. Caputo, R. Curciotti, W. De
Cesare, M. Orazi, G. Scarpato, A. Caputo, R. Peluso, P. Ricciolino, A. Linde, S. Sacks
(2008). Seismological monitoring of the February 2007 effusive eruption of the
Stromboli volcano. In press on Annali di Geofisica.
L. D’Auria, F. Giudicepietro, M. Martini, R. Peluso (2006) Seismological insight into the
kinematics of the 5 April 2003 vulcanian explosion at Stromboli volcano (Southern
Italy). Geoph. Res. Lett. VOL. 33, L08308, doi:10.1029/2006GL026018
E. Auger, L. D’Auria, M. Martini, B. Chouet, P. Dawson (2006) Real-time monitoring and
massive inversion of source parameters of very long period seismic signals: An
application to Stromboli Volcano, Italy. Geoph. Res. Lett. VOL. 33, L04301,
doi:10.1029/2005GL024703
A. M. Esposito, F. Giudicepietro, S. Scarpetta, L. D’Auria, M. Marinaro, and M. Martini
(2006) Automatic Discrimination among Landslide, Explosion-Quake, and Microtremor
Seismic Signals at Stromboli Volcano using Neural Networks. Bull. Seism. Soc. Amer.
Vol. 96, No. 4, doi: 10.1785/0120050097
L. D’Auria, F. Giudicepietro, M. Martini, R. Peluso (2006) Seismological insight into the
kinematics of the 5 April 2003 vulcanian explosion at Stromboli volcano (Southern
Italy). Geoph. Res. Lett. VOL. 33, L08308, doi:10.1029/2006GL026018
148
V2 - Paroxysms
RU V2/8
Scientific Responsible: Mario Mattia, technologist, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e
Vulcanologia Sezione di Catania, Piazza Roma 2 – 95100 Catania, email:
[email protected], tel 0957165805, fax 095435801
RU Composition:
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Mario Mattia
Technologist
INGV CT
Man/Months 1st
phase
2
Man/Months 2nd
phase
2
Man/Months 2nd
phase
0
1
0
2
Participants
Position
Institution
Cannavò Flavio
Patanè Domenico
Montalto Placido
Bruno Valentina
Technologist
First Researcher
Technician
Phd student –
INGV grant
Researcher
Technician
Technician
Technician
Research Director
INGV CT
INGV CT
INGV CT
INGV - UniCT
Man/Months 1st
phase
0
1
0
2
INGV CT
INGV CT
INGV CT
INGV CT
INGV CT
0
1
1
1
2
0
1
1
1
2
Researcher
University of
Leeds
INGV
INGV
UniBo
INGV
3
3
2
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
Palano Mimmo
Rossi Massimo
Pellegrino Daniele
Pulvirenti Mario
Bonaccorso
Alessandro
Rivalta Eleonora
Giunchi Carlo
Spina Cianetti
Maurizio Bonafede
Emanuele Casarotti
Researcher
Reasercher
Professor
Reasercher
Task 1
(i) Geodynamical aspects of the eastern branch of Aeolian Archipelago
Stromboli Island represents the north-eastern part of a volcanic archipelago located in the
Tyrrhenian Sea, off the northeast coast of Sicily. Its formation is related to a complex
geodynamic setting resulting from: i) the Neogene-Quaternary collision process between
the African and Eurasian plates; ii) the roll-back of the Ionian plate underneath Calabria
and iii) the opening of the Tyrrhenian back-arc basin.
Continuous GPS has become one of the most important observational techniques for
studying tectonic plate motions and crustal deformations (both in volcanically and
tectonically active areas). Here, we propose a research-plane based on the analysis of the
ground deformation through the analysis of more than ten years of GPS data colleted on a
four-sites permanent network.
In a first step, all available GPS data will be processed through the GAMIT/GLOBK
software packages, taking into account data from continuously operating IGS stations, in
order to improve the overall configuration of the network and to make possible the
combination of the individual solutions with the regional ones (e.g. IGS1, IGS2, IGS3,
149
IGS4 and EURA) provided by the SOPAC (ftp://garner.ucsd.edu/pub/hfiles) in GLOBK.
Finally, through the GLORG module of GLOBK, the GPS velocity field will be computed
and transformed into different reference frame (i.e. ITRF2005, fixed Nubian frame, fixed
Eurasian frame).
As a second step the horizontal strain-rate field of the investigated area will be calculated,
by adopting a least square approach and taking into account: i) the network geometry, ii)
the estimated velocity at each site and iii) the entire associated covariance matrix.
Finally, we will investigate both velocity fields and strain-rate patterns at different timescale (i.e. annual-based observation) in order to detected “patterns” related to the
relationship between volcano activity and tectonic plate motion.
(ii) 3D numerical model of Stromboli deformation
The recent paroxysms at Stromboli provide a fairly detailed database of geodetic and
seismic networks recordings. These data can be interpreted using predictions by a realistic
3D deformation model to evaluate both the mechanisms of gas ascent immediately before
or during the explosions and the volumes responsible for the conduits expansion. We plan
to set up a high resolution 3D model of the volcanic edifice and to compute the strain and
stress field using the Finite Element Method (FEM). Inferences from such a model are very
robust since they are not affected by the homogeneous and isotropic half space
approximations of the analytical models commonly used in volcanic deformation
modeling. The 3D FEM model, instead, accounts for the steep morphology of Stromboli,
for the effect of major discontinuities and for the active regional stress field. The solid
modeling of Stromboli is a very complex task that we approach using recent software
specifically developed to allow us the reconstruction both of topography and internal
shape of geologic structures. Initially, we perform a systematic study of different static and
moving sources and various conduit configurations to study the Stromboli response at the
real observation sites. In the second year we carry out a comparison of the theoretical
model predictions with GPS, clinometric, strain and seismic observations during major
paroxysms attempting to constrain volume change and ascent time of the explosive source.
(iii) Analogue experiments on reservoir decompression
The last two eruptive events at Stromboli (December 2002 - July 2003 and February April 2007) shared some common characteristics that suggest further investigation on
depressurisation. Both eruptions occurred as an interruption of the usual explosive activity
at the summit craters and the onset of lava flow from fissures trending NE. While lava flow
was going on, in both cases a paroxysm occurred, followed again by lava flows with
decreasing output rate. Strikingly, the cumulative volume of lava flowed before the onset
of those major explosions was very similar and estimated to be about 5·106 m3. In both
cases, the presence of the LP pumice in the eruption products testifies that material of deep
origin, trapped in a reservoir at 6-9 km depth, contributed to the explosion, whereas
common explosions at Stromboli produce material from the only upper feeding system, at
about 3 km depth.
Commonly, slow depressurisation, as undoubtedly was occurring at Stromboli before these
last two paroxysms, is not believed to be able to cause magma fragmentation. Theoretical
and experimental modelling showed that rapid decompression is rather likely to produce
the requested pressure difference between inside and outside of bubbles to cause
fragmentation, whilst slow decompression should favour non-explosive expansion of
magma. However, the possibility that the observations on the erupted volume may indicate
the existence of a pressure threshold inherent in the system, that once overcome induces
major explosions and paroxysms, is worth of further investigation. In fact, until new
observations are available from new explosive activity, it seems important to test whether
150
this hypothesis is truly ill-founded or whether the observations can rather suggest us
something significant about the physics of the deep feeding system at Stromboli. Given the
complication intrinsic in the phenomena leading to magma fragmentation, we think that
performing experiments on decompression of a volatile-rich analog of magma, under the
conditions observed at Stromboli (slow decompression, presence of a shallow and a deep
system with a thin dike-like upper conduit) could lead to important outcomes for the
understanding of the mechanisms governing explosivity at Stromboli. The equipment
needed for this kind of study is rather expensive and complex, so we plan to rely on
existing facilities outside of Catania. Particularly suitable seem the laboratory at University
of Bristol, lead by Prof. Steve Sparks, with which we already have contacts. However, we
do not exclude collaboration with other laboratories at this stage. The experimental work
will be accompanied by numerical and theoretical modelling of decompression processes
on volatile-rich magma-filled reservoirs.
Task 2 and 3
Mitigation of natural risks is one of the main goals in geophysical research. This is
particularly true in volcanic and seismic areas, where the request of high quality and
quantity of data becomes essential to better analyze and understand the local hazard.
Dynamics of volcanic areas is a result of complex interaction among tectonics, gravity,
forces related to the activity of the magmatic systems and, maybe, to meteorological
variables. Therefore, the investigation of relationships among these processes from the
available data is crucial to better understand their dynamics and make progress to
recognize early warning systems of volcanic events. To this purpose, the current activities
of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia concerning the improvement of the
monitoring systems in the Italian volcanic areas, and the collected geophysical data can
give a reference framework for new data analysis techniques.
In Patanè et al, (2007), for example, new techniques of analysis were applied to Stromboli
signals, both seismic and geodetic from GPS network, in order to obtain some useful
information about the volcano state. In the cited paper the joint analysis between seismic
signals and high frequency GPS signals (1 Hz.) has led to observe significant changes in
the spectral content of the GPS signal about two days before the eruption starting on 2007
and about two days before the explosion on 15 March 2007. The problem that arises for an
immediate use of this innovative technique is essentially linked to the verification of the
effects that weather changes have on these signals, detectable through studies of coherence
between the two types of signals.
We propose to analyze in this project:
- Volcano seismicity, which reflect mass movements or perturbations through two distinct
mechanisms: 1) Volcanic Tremor, Long period (LP), Very long period (VLP) or Hybrid
events acting as direct indicators of fluid involvement; 2) Volcano-Tectonic (VT) events
originated in the rock matrix, which are manifestations of shear failure;
- Geodetic data, in order to detect and discriminate between deformation and gravimetric
signals generated by magma movement and by other subsurface mass distribution changes,
based on the temporal and spatial length scales of the signal and its characteristics;
In recent years, automated analysis techniques have become a powerful method for
multivariate data analysis. By data mining techniques, it is possible to extract a base of
knowledge from large amounts of data by correlating and modelling heterogeneous data.
In the proposed project, we perform analysis by integrating heterogeneous geophysical
data such as seismic, GPS and meteorological ones.
We undertake joint inversions and correlation analysis of these multivariate datasets. Our
purpose is the development of a time series database by using data acquired from
151
permanent installations at Stromboli, and a suite of software that implements data mining
and knowledge discovery algorithms able to increase our knowledge of the dynamics and
the interaction of different geophysical processes. In this task we apply new signal
processing technique for a better characterization of seismic and geodetic signals, and in
particular a wavelet and cross-wavelet approach is proposed.
These techniques allow a better time-frequency resolution and, in particular, they have
advantages over traditional Fourier methods in analyzing physical situations where the
signal contains discontinuities and sharp spikes. Another application of wavelet analysis
concerns the time-series database and in particular the cross wavelet transform and wavelet
coherence for examining relationship in time-frequency domain between heterogeneous
time series.
In the frequency domain, using of Wavelet helps to improve significantly the signal
analysis, overcoming the limitations of the Fourier transform (FFT and STFT) to get all
possible information about the temporal localization of a band of frequencies that
otherwise could be lost in the analytical process.Moreover, the same analysis of crosscorrelation in the frequency domain would appear to be less sensitive to conditions of
greater noise. The possibility of applying new analysis procedures allows us today to apply
for civil protection, automatic processing methods able to: 1) make counting events
characteristic (type VLPs, LP, hybrids) a fully automatic, freeing this important activity
classification by "humans" with all that this entails in terms of approximations in the
estimation; 2) identify, in real time, abnormal patterns of occurrence, symptomatic of
changes in the dynamic magmatic; 3) identify small fracturing events due to magma rising.
Finally, the target of this task is the realization of a warning system that uses knowledge
discovered from acquired data in order to mitigate the volcanic eruption risk.
1. Stromboli DEM and observation sites analysis
2. Preliminary 3D model of Stromboli volcanic edifice
3. Theoretical study of signals due to different configurations of conduits geometry
and pressurized or tensile sources.
4. Implementing a multiparametric time-series database from GPS and Seismic signal
5. Defining of common procedures for data filtering from meteorological and
generally from exogenous phenomena in seismic and ground deformation data
6. Defining of common procedures for heterogeneous data comparison
7. Building of hardware-software infrastructure for data processing and analysing
8. Implementation of cross analysis techniques for pattern recognition in multivariate
time-series
9. Simulation of slow decompression of volatile-rich magma analogues.
10. Numerical simulation of decompression to model experimental results
1. Refinement of the 3D model of Stromboli
2. Analysis of deformation data recorded during recent major paroxysms
3. Comparison between 3D deformation model predictions and pre-explosive and synexplosive observations.
4. Estimate of the following parameters characterizing the explosive source: timedepth variations, volume change as a function of confining pressure changes
5. Developing of a suite of software that implements data mining and knowledge
discovery algorithms
152
6. Tuning of an automated warning system based on supplied analysis
7. Testing of the early warning system on different and unknown datasets.
Verification of the relationship between mass outflow from the conduit and the
possible existence of a decompression threshold for the feeding system at
Stromboli volcano
8. Definition of the mechanisms governing the onset of major paroxysms in terms of
decompression
1st year
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
6500
0,00
0,00
0,00
20500
0,00
3000
0,00
0,00
30000
0,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
Totale
2nd year
Categoria di spesa
0,00
8500
0,00
0,00
0,00
Totale
0,00
18500
0,00
3000
0,00
30000
0,00
153
Total
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
15000
0,00
0,00
0,00
Totale
0,00
39000
0,00
6000
0,00
60000
0,00
Mario Mattia Date of birth: 4 July 1964
Nationality:
Italian
Since 1995 his work is mainly focused on the technological aspects and data management
of GPS permanent networks. Since September 1999 he is a technologist in the INGV-CT
section, where he has the responsibility of the Continous Geodesy Team (U. F. Ground
Deformation, and Geodesy). In 2004 he has been indicated by the director of INGV CT as
member of the team that manages the INGV National GPS network (RING). In his career
has realized the GPS permanent networks in Vulcano and Stromboli Islands and on Etna.
He has developed, projected and realized the real time GPS network on Stromboli Island
during the 2002 – 2003 eruption. He has organized the mobile GPS network for ground
deformation monitoring for the Umbria-Marche 1997 earthquake. He has managed field
GPS campaigns on Aeolian Islands, Etna and Pantelleria. His research activity is focused
on the modelling of volcanic processes through multidisciplinary approaches based mainly
on geodetic and seismic data.
Mattia, M., M. Rossi, F. Guglielmino, M. Aloisi, and Y. Bock (2004), The shallow
plumbing system of Stromboli Island as imaged from 1 Hz instantaneous GPS positions,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L24610, doi:10.1029/2004GL021281
Patanè, D., M.Mattia, G. Di Grazia, F. Cannavò, E. Giampiccolo, C. Musumeci, P.
Montalto and E. Boschi (2007), Insights into the dynamic processes of the 2007
Stromboli eruption and possibile meteorological influences on the magmatic system,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, doi: 10.129/2007GL031730
Bonaccorso A., Cianetti S., Giunchi C., Trasatti E., Bonafede M., Boschi E. (2005).
Analytical and 3-D numerical modelling of Mt. Etna (Italy) volcano inflation. Geophys.
J. Int., 163, 852- 862, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2005.02777.x
E. Trasatti, C. Giunchi and N. Piana Agostinetti (2008). Numerical inversion of
deformation caused by pressure sources: application to Mount Etna (Italy). Geophys. J.
154
Int., 172, 873-884, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03677.xRivalta E., and Segall, P.,
2007. Magma compressibility and the missing source for some dike intrusions, submitted
to Geophys. Res. Lett
155
V2 - Paroxysms
RU V2/9
Scientific Responsible: Maurizio Ripepe, Ricercatore, via LaPira, 4, 50121 Firenze, Italy,
email: [email protected], tel:055-2757479, fax:055-218628
RU Composition:
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Maurizio Ripepe
Ricercatore
UniFI
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
Man/Months 2nd
phase
3
Man/Months 2nd
phase
3
3
3
Participants
Position
Institution
Nicola Casagli
Corrado Cigolini
Emanuele
Marchetti
Giacomo Ulivieri
Diego Coppola
Chiara
Delventisette
Letizia Guerri
Dario Delledonne
Davide Piscopo
Giorgio Lacanna
Riccardo Genco
Marco Laiolo
Lorella Francalanci
Simone Tommasini
Sandro Conticelli
Prof. Ordinario
Ricercatore
Ricercatore T.D.
UniFI
UniTO
UniFI
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
3
3
Ricercatore T.D.
Assegnista
Assegnista
UniFI
UniTO
UniFI
3
3
3
3
3
3
Dottoranda
Assegnista
Assegnista
Assegnista
Assegnista
Assegnista
Associate Prof.
Associate Prof.
Full Prof.
UniFI
UniFI
UniTO
UniFI
UniFI
UniTO
UniFi
UniFi
UniFi
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
1
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
1
Post-doc
University of
Bristol
UniFi
UniFi
3
3
2
1
2
1
Riccardo
Avanzinelli
Eleonora Braschi
Elena Boari
PhD student
Post-doc
The Department of Earth Sciences in Firenze operates a multiparameter geophysical
network designed to detect several geophysical parameters linked in different ways to
conduit dynamics. The network actually consists of 5 broadband seismometers, 10
acoustic infrasonic sensors, 2 thermal cameras, 2 tiltmeters and 1 InSar ground
interferometer (Casagli). This integrated network of sensors includes since 2007 also a
well-established radon network with 2 real-time sensors (Cigolini) and is running at
Stromboli since January 2003 recording with continuity the volcanic activity. In addition,
since many years the department has carried out petrological and isotopical studies on
Stromboli magmas aimed at characterizing structure and behaviour of the feeding system
(Francalanci).
156
Task 1 and 2
Strombolian activity is mainly driven by gas dynamics and it is then very sensitive to the
changes in gas flux regime in the magmatic feeding systems. Gas dynamics is the main
responsible for a large variety of physical phenomena recorded at Stromboli, before,
during and after each explosive event. We aim to analyze in detail all the dataset recorded
by our network in terms of seismic, acoustic, thermal and ground deformation (from
InSAR and tiltmeters) in order to constrain the explosive dynamics (Task 1) of the major
explosions recorded at Stromboli in the last years. At a shorter time-scale each single
strombolian explosion is also controlled by a continuous process of gas charge and
discharge within the conduit, which is detected as continuous ground inflation/deflation
cycles by tiltmeters. The use of high sampling rate (1 Hz) bore-hole tiltmeters with
nanoradians sensitivity is at Stromboli quite new. During the major strombolian explosion
of March 15, 2007 and April 5, 2003, both tiltmeters and InSAR have detected a large
(few microrads) inflation few minutes before the explosive onset. We aim to integrate the
information of our tiltmeters and ground interferometer (Casagli) with other instruments
such as GPS (UR Mattia) and strainmeters (UR Martini) to create a robust and reliable
early-warning system for large explosion.
The recharge rate of the magmatic systems (deeper and shallow) and the magma residence
time during its ascent are fundamental parameters in order to understand the triggering
mechanisms of the eruptive crisis at Stromboli volcano (effusive activity and paroxysmal
eruptions).
The research group of Francalanci and coworkers will be mainly focused on the analyses
of the short-lived isotope ratios of U-Th, associated to some micro-Sr isotope ratios
measurements, on pumice, lavas and scoria samples erupted between the 2003-2007
periods.
The long-lived U and Th isotopes (238U, 235U and 232Th) decay to stable Pb isotopes (206Pb,
207
Pb and 208Pb, respectively) through a series of short-lived radiogenic and radioactive
isotopes (e.g., 231Pa, 226Ra, 228Ra).
The various geochemical properties of U-series isotopes cause nuclides within the chain to
be fractionated in different geological environment, whereas their half-lives, ranging from
days to few tens of thousand years, allow investigating processes occurring at timescales
from days to 105 years. Thus, U-series isotopes can be a useful tool to understand the
timescale of magmatic processes. The variation of U-series activity ratios [i.e. (230Th/238U),
(230Th/232Th), (226Ra/230Th), (226Ra)/Ba), (210Pb/226Ra)] during the history of a volcano is
strongly affected by the open or closed behaviour of the magmatic system. In particular, at
Stromboli, we’re planning to compare 226Ra-230Th disequilibria between pumice and scoria
samples of the most recent activity, to evaluate the timescale of the magma chamber
replenishments.
Measures of 228Ra-232Th disequilibria will be also performed. Given the extremely short
half-life of 228Ra (i.e. 5.75yr), any disequilibrium would indicate a timescale of processes
occurring in a very short period before the eruption (<30 years). These data will be
particularly useful to evaluate the recharge rate of the magmatic systems.
Task 3
During the last two effusive eruptions of Stromboli in 2003 and 2007 we have recorded a
large variability in most of the recorded parameters evidencing a direct link between deep
magma dynamics and shallow explosive activity. Associated with the ground deformation
of the Sciara del Fuoco (detected by InSAR), tremor, number of seismic VLP, magma
degassing, explosive rate and energy have increased already few weeks before the onset
157
of last eruption in 2007. This indicates that most of the measured geophysical parameters
are reflecting changes in both gas flux and magma input rate in the shallow feeding
system. Here, an increase in gas flux should lead to period of large volcano instability
with high magma degassing, high explosive regime and ground deformations. Variations
in Rn emissions have also been correlated with changes in volcanic activity before
effusive phases and paroxysmal explosions (Task 2).
Our project will concentrate on analyzing the interactions between all these geophysics
parameters and magma-gas feeding rate, with the aim to identify clear patterns in the
seismic, infrasonic, thermal, ground deformation and radon emission associated to large
changes in magma input rate and/or gas flux before an explosive-to-effusive transitions.
1. Model of overpressurized magma degassing
2. Improving the ground deformation monitoring network based on tiltmeters and
InSAR.
3. Real-time seismic analysis associated to land-slides and non-magmatic activity
4. Increasing the number of Radon stations at selected sites.
5. Analyses of the short-lived U-Th isotope ratios on some scoria-lava/pumice pair
samples.
6. Elaboration and evaluation of the first data on short-lived U-Th isotope ratios and
possible magma processes timescale estimation.
1. Definition of geophysical and geochemical patters related to main changes in
volcanic activity as precursor of esplosive to effusive transition
2. Definition of a ground deformation and seismic activity integrated model to
identify major flank instabilities
3. Analyses of micro-Sr isotope ratios on same key samples. Other short-lived U-Th
isotope
ratios (possibly on new erupted data) chosen on the basis of the
previously determined U-Th data.
4. Calculation of recharge rate and magma resident time, useful to identify the
precursors to paroxysms and effusive eruption.
5. Contribution to the multidisciplinary alert system to be implemented at the Civil
Protection in Rome
1st year
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
10000
0,00
29000
0,00
158
0,00
10000
Totale
0,00
0,00
0,00
3490009
0,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
2nd year
Categoria di spesa
230
11000
0,00
28000
0,00
0,00
10000
Totale
0,00
2
0,00
349000
3900
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
Total
Categoria di spesa
0,00
21000
0,00
57000
0,00
0,00
20000
Totale
0,00
0,00
0,00
0, 9800000
0,00
159
Maurizio Ripepe
- In 1978. Laurea degree in Geology at the University of Firenze
Professional Experience
- 1979 - 1986. Associate Geophysicist at the Geofisica Toscana s.r.l seismic prospecting
- 1983 to present. Researcher in Geophysics at the Dep. of Earth Sciences of Firenze Univ..
Academic Appointments (Lecturing)
- 1990 - 1992. Geophysics at the Dep. of Earth Sciences in Firenze.
- 1993 - 1997. Geophysics at the Dep. of Earth Science of Univ. of Camerino.
- 1997 - 2005. 'Seismology' at the Dep. of Earth Science of Uni. of Camerino.
- 1998 to the present. 'Applied Geophysics' at the Dep. of Earth Sciences in Firenze
Fellowships and Visiting Professor
- 1986 -1987. NATO-CNR fellowship at the Dep. of Geology and Geophysics of the Univ.
of Southern California in Los Angeles (USA)
- 1988 -1989. Research associate at the Dep. of Geology and Geophysics of the Univ. of
Southern California in Los Angeles (USA)
- 1994 - 1995. British Council Fellowship at The Leeds University (UK)
- 2000. Visiting Professor at the Institute of Seismology and Volcanology, Hokkaido
University, Sapporo (Japan).
- 2002. Visiting Professor at the Physics Department of Ecole Normal Superioure of Lyon
(F).
Scientific Responsibility
- 1992 to the present. Responsible of the Geophysical Laboratory at Stromboli Volcano.
- 1993 to 2000. Responsible of the Seismological Laboratory of Univ. of Camerino.
- 2003 to 2004. Consulting for the Dep. of Civil Protection during the Stromboli eruption
- 2005 to present. Associate Editor of Bulletine of Volcanology
Casagli N., Farina P., Leva D., Tarchi D., 2004. Landslide monitoring on the Stromboli
volcano through SAR interferometry. In: W.A. Lacerda, M. Ehrlich, S.A.B. Fontoura &
A.S.F. Sayao (Eds.), Landslides, Evaluation & Stabilization. Balkema, chap.1, 803-808.
Cigolini, C., G. Gervino, R. Bonetti, F. Conte, M. Laiolo, D. Coppola, and A. Manzoni,
2005. Tracking precursors and degassing by radon monitoring during major eruptions at
Stromboli Volcano (Aeolian Islands, Italy). Geoph. Res. Lett., 32, art. n. L12308
Ripepe, M., Marchetti, M, Uliveri, G., Harris, A., Dehn, J., Burton, M., Salerno, G., 2005.
Effusive to explosive transition during the 2003 eruption of Stromboli volcano.
Geology 33(5), 341-344.
Ripepe, M., Marchetti, Ulivieri, G., 2007. Infrasonic Monitoring at Stromboli Volcano
during the 2003 effusive eruption: insights on the explosive and degassing process
of an open conduit system. J. Geophys. Res. 106(B5), 8713-8727.
Francalanci, L., Davies, G.R., Lustenmhower, W., Tommasini, S., Mason, P., Conticelli, S.
(2005). Intra-grain Sr isotope evidence for crystal re-cycling and multiple magma
reservoirs in the recent activity of Stromboli volcano, southern Italy. Journal of
Petrology, 46: 1997-2021. doi: 10.1093/petrology/egi045.
160
V2 - Paroxysms
RU V2/10
Scientific Responsible: Andrea Rizzo, Technologist, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e
Vulcanologia, sezione di Palermo, Via Ugo La Malfa 153, 90146 Palermo, Italy; email:
[email protected] Tel 091-6809490; Fax 091-6809449.
RU Composition:
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
Man/Months 2nd
phase
3
INGV-PA
INGV-PA
INGV-PA
INGV-PA
INGV-PA
INGV-PA
INGV-PA
INGV-PA
INGV-PA
INGV-PA
INGV-PA
INGV-PA
INGV-PA
INGV-PA
INGV-PA
Man/Months 1st
phase
2
2
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
1
2
Man/Months 2nd
phase
2
2
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
1
2
ISTO-Orléans
IGP-Paris
ISTO-Orléans
INGV-PA
INGV-PA
1
2
0
2
1
1
2
0
2
1
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Andrea Rizzo
Technologist
INGV-PA
Participants
Position
Institution
Fausto Grassa
Marcello Liotta
Cinzia Federico
Sofia De Gregorio
Paolo Madonia
Salvo Inguaggiato
Giorgio Capasso
Marco Camarda
Manfredi Longo
Lorenzo Brusca
Giuseppe Riccobono
Paolo Cosenza
Lorenzo Calderone
Antonio Paonita
Giada Iacono
Marziano
Fabrice Gaillard
Cyril Abaud
Priscille Lesne
Mauro Martelli
Mariano Tantillo
Technologist
Researcher
Researcher
Post-doc
Researcher
Senior Researcher
Researcher
Post-doc
Technologist
Technologist
Technician
Technician
Technician
Researcher
Fellowship
Researcher
Researcher
PhD
Technologist
Technician
Task 1
Among the gases dissolved in melts, CO2 represents the most abundant species, while
noble gases are trace species useful in geochemical investigations as markers of magmatic
degassing. These species have been investigated in some peripheral gas emissions at Etna
volcano, allowing to recognize precursory signals of magma recharge at depth toward the
shallowest levels of Etnean plumbing system. At Stromboli, noble gases and CO2
abundances as well as isotopic ratios have been studied in the gases dissolved in thermal
waters and in fumarolic gas emissions located in the crater area, providing useful
information about new magma batches approaching the surface before the 2002-2003
eruption. Nevertheless, the developed geochemical model needs to be constrained by the
investigation of noble gases and CO2 abundances and isotopic ratios of the magmatic
161
source at Stromboli, in order to perform a more accurate evaluation of the early signals of
eruptions and/or paroxysm.
In this respect, we plan to study noble gases abundances and isotopic ratios as well as 13δC
of CO2 in olivine-hosted and pyroxene-hosted fluid inclusions from LP and HP products
recently erupted at Stromboli, which have never been investigated.
The main phases in which this part of the project will be articulated are:
b) Samples collection in the field;
c) Crushing of samples and minerals separation (olivines and pyroxenes);
d) Minerals crushing and analysis of noble gases (He, Ne and Ar) in trapped fluid
inclusions at INGV-Palermo mass spectrometry laboratory;
e) Minerals crushing and analysis of 13δC of CO2 in trapped fluid inclusions at IGP
laboratory of Paris;
f) Comparison and integration of obtained results with available petrological and
geochemical data;
g) Data interpretation and evaluation of the magmatic source characteristics;
Task 2 and 3
Fluid geochemistry in the last ten years revealed a continuous improving potential for
understanding the degassing mechanism and eruptive dynamics of the volcano.
On the basis of the geochemical variations observed during last two eruptions/paroxysms,
we argue that continuous monitoring of some promising parameters represents the most
important and urgent goal in order to allow a multidisciplinary comparison of geochemical
data. This will also provide useful information and precursory parameters to the civil
defence about the state of activity of Stromboli volcano. In view of that, we want to
develop an automatic system for a high frequency data acquisition of dissolved CO2
concentration and water temperature in the thermal waters of the basal aquifer. In the crater
area, a new temperature multi-channel station will be set up, constituted by a 3D array of
almost 15 measuring points located at various depths. It should allow a better
understanding of the effects on the temperature signal by exogenous and endogenous
parameters, like air temperature, wind speed, rainfall rates, permeability and structure of
the soil, vapour flux rate, etc.
The main phases in which this part of the project will be articulated are:
a) Projecting and development of a prototype for dissolved-CO2 measurement and
temperature monitoring in the basal thermal waters and the soil temperature in the
crater rim;
b) Calibration and test of the developed systems in INGV-PA laboratories and in other
natural contexts similar to Stromboli Island but easier accessible;
c) Choice of the best sites where the new automatic stations will be positioned to start
the monitoring and field installation;
d) Data acquisition, validation and preliminary elaboration;
e) Comparison of the acquired data with other geochemical parameters, as well as
with available geophysical data;
f) Interpretation of the recorded data in relation to the volcanic activity;
Data from fluid inclusions investigation (Task 1) will integrate the knowledge till now
available about the source characteristics for both noble gases and 13δC of CO2. This
information is complementary to our geochemical monitoring in order to improve the
developed models. Indeed, a dataset on helium and carbon isotopes in both dissolved gases
in the basal thermal waters and the fumarolic gases is already available. A comparison
between the observed variations and the possible changes of source characteristics has to
162
be evaluated in order to improve our comprehension on magma dynamics in the shallow
plumbing system. Previous investigations carried out on products erupted at Mount Etna in
the period 2001-2005 showed as changes in the noble gases abundance and isotopes ratio
in fluid inclusions can be appreciable during magma degassing over time. In this respect, a
similar approach at Stromboli could be helpful in order to evaluate precursory signals of
effusive eruption and/or paroxysm.
1. Preliminary data acquisition on CO2 and temperature automatic systems;
2. Comparison with discrete measurements carried out on the same sites;
3. Preliminary data acquisition from first crushing of fluid inclusions.
1.
2.
3.
4.
Data validation and preliminary elaboration;
Implementation of geochemical models;
Interpretation of the recorded data in relation to the volcanic activity;
Comparison of the acquired data with other geochemical parameters as well as with
available geophysical data;
5. Identification, from the developed or upgraded models, of possible early signals of
paroxysms and effusive eruptions.
1st year
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
3000
0,00
7000
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
0,00
17000
0,00
3000
0,00
30000
0,00
Totale
0,00
163
2nd year
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
3000
0,00
7000
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
0,00
17000
0,00
3000
0,00
0,00
30000
0,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
6000
0,00
14000
0,00
Totale
Total
Categoria di spesa
0,00
0,00
Totale
0,00
34000
0,00
6000
0,00
60000
0,00
Andrea Rizzo Date of birth: 30 January 1974, Nationality: Italian
Education: 1998 professional exam in Geology, passed. 1992-1997: (full marks cum laude)
in Geological Sciences, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo (Italy). Languages:
Italian, English
Professional experience:
2000-2001 research contract at the Istituto Geochimica dei Fluidi (CNR), Palermo.
2001-2003 research contract at Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di
Palermo.
164
2003-present Technologist and coordinator of noble gas laboratory at Istituto Nazionale di
Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Palermo.
Coordinator of monthly bulletin on Etna activity state produced by Istituto Nazionale di
Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Palermo.
Rizzo A., Caracausi A., Favara R., Martelli M., Nuccio P.M., Paonita A., Rosciglione A.,
Paternoster M. (2006) - New insights into magma dynamics during last two eruptions of
Mount Etna as inferred by geochemical monitoring from 2002 to 2005. Geochem.
Geophys. Geosyst., 7, Q06008, DOI 10.1029/2005GC001175.
Caracausi A., Ditta M., Italiano F., Longo M., Nuccio P.M., Paonita A., Rizzo A. (2005) Changes in fluid geochemistry and physico-chemical conditions of geothermal systems
caused by magmatic input: The recent abrupt outgassing off the island of Panarea
(Aeolian Islands, Italy). Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, Vol. 69, No. 12, pp. 30453059
Capasso G., Carapezza M. L., Federico C., Inguaggiato S., Rizzo A. (2004) - The 20022003 eruption at Stromboli volcano (Italy): precursory changes in the carbon and helium
isotopic composition of both fumarole gases and thermal waters. Bull. Volcanol., 68:
118–134.
Inguaggiato S, Rizzo A (2004) Dissolved helium isotope ratios in ground-waters: a new
technique based on gas-water re-equilibration and its application to Stromboli volcanic
system. Appl Geochem 19: 665-673.
Caracausi A, Favara R, Giammanco S, Italiano F, Nuccio P.M, Paonita A, Pecoraino G,
Rizzo A (2003a) Mount Etna: Geochemical signals of magma ascent and unusually
extensive plumbing system. Geophys Res Lett 30 (2): 1057 doi:
10.1029/2002GL015463.
165
V2 - Paroxysms
RU V2/11
Scientific Responsible: Mauro Rosi, Full Professor, Università di Pisa, Dipartimento di
Scienze della Terra, Via Santa Maria, 53, 56126, Pisa, Italy, email: [email protected], tel:
050-2215712, fax: 050-2215800
RU Composition:
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Mauro Rosi
Full Professor
UniPi
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
Man/Months 2nd
phase
3
Participants
Position
Institution
Man/Months 1st
phase
Man/Months 2nd
phase
Laura Pioli
Post-doc
3
3
Alberto Renzulli
Stefano Del Moro
Michele Menna
Patrizia Santi
Mario Tribaudino
Filippo Ridolfi
Margherita Polacci
Associate Prof.
PhD student
Post-doc
Researcher
Full Prof.
Post-doc
Researcher
University of
Oregon
UniUrb
UniUrb
UniUrb
UniUrb
UniPr
UniUrb
INGV-CT
3
3
3
1
1
1
0
3
3
3
1
1
1
0
Task 1
Two paroxysmal events have occurred at Stromboli volcano in the last five years, when
improved monitoring and extensive scientific investigations have dramatically affected our
ability to characterize sudden, relatively rare explosive manifestations of the volcano.
Eruptive dynamics, duration, mass discharge rate, volume and deposit dispersal of 5 April
2003, were quantified and modeled for the event integrating field, geophysical and
laboratory data. The data revealed that the origin of these events is being controlled by the
explosive interaction between the shallow magmatic system, that feeds the normal
strombolian activity, and a small batch of volatile-rich, crystal-poor magma rapidly rising
from a deeper reservoir. However, there are still some unsolved questions that deserve
further investigation: what is the dynamics of the deep magma rise and its interaction with
the crystal rich HP magma? What is the role of the ongoing effusive activity in the
paroxysmal dynamics? How is magmatic fragmentation occurring and affecting the
explosive processes?
We propose to address these points analyzing the most recent paroxysmal event, occurred
on 15 March 2007. This event showed striking similarities with that of 5 April 2003,
although of smaller scale.
We will perform a comprehensive study using field and laboratory methods. The deposits
will be fully characterized (volume, areal distribution, componentry, total grainsize
distribution, relative proportion of HP and LP magma fragments, depositional dynamics)
and data will be compared with geophysical monitoring data and with images and movies
of the eruption to quantitatively describe the explosive dynamics. Granulometric analyses
166
and componentry will be also performed on total samples. Textural and compositional
characterization of products (bulk rock, glass, mineralogical phases) will be determined by
ICP-MS analyses while punctual compositional data on matrix glasses will be acquired
with SEM-EDS analyses.
Laboratory activity will focus on: i) physical characterization of the deposit ii)
morphological, physical and textural analysis of juvenile tephra and lithic material. Bulk
deposit samples will be analysed for grainsize distribution (using standard sieving for
lapilli and coarse ash and laser techniques for fine ash); componetry (to measure relative
proportion of lithic, and HP and LP juvenile fragments).
On juvenile material bulk density systematic measurements will be performed together
with powders density in order to obtain vesicularity data (bulk vesicularity) at Earth
Science Department of Pisa and at National Institute of Geophysical and Volcanology of
Pisa. Physical and textural characteristics of the tephra will be studied in detail to obtain
data about fragmentation and conduit dynamics. In particular, we will perform density
measurements to obtain average density and density distribution of lapilli fragments;
textural analysis (crystal and bubble size distribution and number densities), morphological
characterization of ash fragments from distal deposit. Microtextural studies coupled with
glass composition (SEM-EDS analyses) will characterize extent and scale of mingling
phenomena between the two magmas. These studies will be performed in collaboration
with the RU Bertagnini. Petrological and microstructural study will be performed on lithic
samples available from the paroxysm of 15 March 2007.
Products will be also characterized from a microtextural point of view (with scanning
electron microscopy) defining quantitatively size and distribution of matrix crystals and
bubbles by standard methods of image analysis (CSD, BSD). Thin section petrography on
lithic material will be coupled with SEM-EDS and Electron Microprobe analyses. In
addition, representative whole rock analyses (XRF and or ICP-OES-MS) will be carried
out. Quench microstructures in minerals due to the very rapid subsolidus cooling (from
500-600° C to atmospheric temperature in few seconds) can be investigated through the
transmission electron microscope (TEM). Hydrothermal minerals present in
pyrometamorphic blocks erupted during paroxysms, will be mainly investigated through
powder X-ray diffractometry and SEM-EDS analyses.
A large proportion of materials ejected during the last two paroxysms consist of blocks
deriving from the shallow subvolcanic system of the volcano. The blocks consist of (i)
grey holocrystalline dolerites and (ii) densely to poorly welded magmatic breccias formed
by dolerite angular fragments, entrapped in a magmatic matrix. All these blocks seem to be
representative of crystallization of the shallow crystal rich basaltic system of Stromboli. In
addition, a widespread lithotype-ejecta erupted during the most recent paroxysms consist
of vescicle-rich, porphyritic (at the meso-microscale) igneous rocks whose microstructures
seem to emphasize (i) the interaction of crater debris and basaltic magma and (ii) large
amounts of gas percolating through the rocks forming the uppermost part of the volcanic
edifice.
A research grant (30 000 for 2 years) will be assigned to a qualified post-doc student to
support the experimental and analytical work.
1. Fieldwork and 15 march 2007 paroxysm product sampling.
2. Physical characterization of the deposit through morphological, physical and
textural analysis of juvenile and lithic material (grain-size, DRE, bulk vesicularity,
XRF and ICP-OES-MS).
167
1. Microtextural studies (CSD, BSD, TEM) on tephra and lithic material coupled with
glass composition.
2. Comparison of products emitted during the events of 5 April 2003 and 15 March
2007.
1st year
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
6000
0,00
20500
0,00
0,00
1500
Totale
0,00
0,00
0,00
28000
09999999000,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
2nd year
Categoria di spesa
0,00
6000
0,00
20500
0,00
0,00
1500
Totale
168
0,00
0,00
0,00
28000
0,
Total
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
12000
0,00
41000
0,00
0,00
3000
Totale
0,00
0,00
0,00
56000
0,00
Education:
- March 1974: degree in Geological Sciences with full marks cum laude (110/110 cum
laude).
Carreer experience:
- 28 April 1974- 30 June 1975: Geologist of the Geotecneco S.p.A. "Geothermal Division"
(ENI)
- 1July 1975-16 March 1977 Post-graduate student, University of Pisa
- 17 March 1977-4 April 1983 Associated Professor of Petrology, University of Pisa;
- 5 April 1983- 31 December 2001 Associated Professor of Volcanology, University of
Pisa;
- 1January 2002 to present Full Professor of Volcanology, University of Pisa
Current and recent research interests:
- stratigraphy of tephra and quantitative reconstruction of past volcanic activity;
- sedimentology of pyroclastic deposits and dynamics of explosive eruptions;
- volcano flank instability inferred from geological data;
- explosive caldera forming eruptions and caldera formation;
- welded ignimbrites;
- magma flow in volcanic conduits;
- magmatic systems feeding active volcanoes.
International appointments:
- From 1993 to 2003 member of the editorial board of the "Bulletin of Volcanology"
- Secretary of the "International Commission for the Volcanic Hazard Mitigation" IAVCEI.
- Secretary of the "International Commission on Explosive Volcanism" - IAVCEI.
Rosi, M., Bertagnini, A., Landi, P. (2000). Onset of the persistent activity at Stromboli
volcano (Italy). Bulletin of Volcanology, 62: 294-300.
169
Bertagnini, A., Metrich, N., Landi, P., Rosi, M. (2003). Stromboli Volcano (Aeolian
Archipelago, Italy); an open window on the deep-feeding system of a steady state
basaltic volcano. Journal of Geophysical Research, 10, 108, B7, 2336,
doi:10.1029/2002JB002146.
Menna, M., Tribaudino, M., Renzulli, A. (2008) Al-Si order and spinodal decomposition
texture of a sanidine from igneous clasts of Stromboli (Aeolian Arc, Southern Italy):
insights into the timing between the emplacement of a shallow basic sheet intrusion and
the eruption of related ejecta. European Journal of Mineralogy, doi: 10.1127/09351221/2008/0020-1795.
Metrich, N., Bertagnini, A., Landi, P., Rosi, M., Belhadj, O. (2005). Triggering mechanism
at the origin of paroxysms at Stromboli (Aeolian Archipelago, Italy): The April 5 2003
eruption. Gepohysical Research Letters, 32: ISSN: 0094-8276.
Rosi, M., Bertagnini, A., Harris, A.J.L., Pioli, L., Pistolesi, M., Ripepe, M. (2006). A case
history of paroxysmal explosion at Stromboli: Timing and dynamics of the April 5, 2003
event. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 243: 594-606.
170
V2 - Paroxysms
RU V2/12
Scientific Responsible: Silvio Rotolo, Professore Associato, Università di Palermo, Via
Archirafi 36, 90123, Palermo, Italy, email: [email protected], tel: 091-6161516, fax: 091
6168376
RU Composition:
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Silvio Rotolo
Prof. Associato
UniPa
Participants
Position
Institution
Michel Pichavant
Bruno Scaillet
Ida Di Carlo
Nunzia Romengo
Patrizia Landi
Massimo Pompilio
Dir. of Research
Dir. of Research
Post-Doc
PhD student
Primo Ricercatore
Primo Ricercatore
CNRS-ISTO
CNRS-ISTO
UniPa
UniPa
INGV-PI
INGV-PI
Man/Months
phase
3
1st
Man/Months
phase
3
2nd
Man/Months
phase
3
3
3
1
1
1
1st
Man/Months
phase
3
3
3
1
1
1
2nd
Task 1
The ascent of the low-crystallinity volatile-rich LP magma during major explosions and
paroxysms at Stromboli will be simulated with the methods of experimental petrology. The
experimental strategy will enucleate around three principal lines of development:
1) Decompression experiments between the inferred pressure of the deep storage zone (2-3
kb) and the resident magma reservoir (around 100 bars).
We want to investigate in particular, how (i) ascent rates and (ii) the amount of a free fluid
phase at depth, allow magma ascent with limited crystallization. The conditions (T, P,
aH2O, dP/dt) at which crystallization occurs will be used to derive growth rates and
textural patterns of olivine (typically fast-growing) at the increasingly high degrees of
under-cooling induced by volatile-loss on decompression. Plagioclase growth rates will be
determined at P < 1 kb. Experimentally derived growth rates will be used to interpret the
complex growth (and/or zoning) patterns, hence ascent rates, which are frequently shown
by natural olivines and plagioclases, most of them grown under high degrees of undercooling. This part of the project will involve researchers of the INGV-Pisa (Bertagnini
RU). Fixed H2O-CO2 fluid mixtures will be used for the experiments and will be derived
by already known experimental phase equilibrium constraints, but exploring different
amounts of free fluid phase. Experimental fluid composition will be compared with the
modeling of volcanic gas compositions from RU Aiuppa. In the second year of the project,
a set of fast decompression exeperiments will also be carried out, in the attempt to
characterise the conditions of fragmentation of HP and LP magmas. Experiments and
analyses of run products will be carried out at CNRS –Institute des Sciences de la Terre d’
Orleans in close cooperation with the RU of INGV- PI (Bertagnini). The costs for the
experimental facilities and related materials (including consumables, noble metal tubing,
171
analytical expenses), will be covered through a contract to CNRS-ISTO for the amount of
19 000 Euros (for 2 years). An additional research grant (36 000 for 2 years) will be
assigned to a qualified post-doc student to support the experimental and analytical work at
CNRS-ISTO.
2) Relationships between LP and HP magmas at depth could control the early stages of the
development of a paroxysm. To gain insights on these processes, we wish to investigate
experimentally the interaction between hydrous crystal-poor and anhydrous crystal-rich
magma. Mechanism (diffusion, buoyant plumes, convective mixing) and time scale of the
interaction will be studied putting in contact in the same capsule at magmatic temperature
(1100-1150°C) and appropriate pressures (0.5-1 kb) hydrous and dry material and
examining textural and compositional relationships after isobaric quenching carried out
after different times. On an un-deformed section of the charge we plan to evaluate in detail:
(i) effects of water diffusion on crystallinity, on stability of single phases, on density and
viscosity in the zone around the interface; (ii) what are critical parameters (crystallinity,
vesicularity, density, viscosity, timescale) that allow the formation of buoyant or laden
plumes; iii) style and vigor of compositional-driven convective mixing.
3) Finally, we will explore the partitioning of chlorine between the melt and the fluid
phase, at the pressure range 2 – 0.25 kb, with the aim to describe the behaviour of Cl in a
multi-component fluid in order to fully define the evolution of the fluid phase at the
relevant conditions of the degassing magma (in cooperation with the RU Aiuppa). These
data will contribute to define possible geochemical precursors characterizing the transition
among different eruptive styles (Strombolian-Effusive or Normal Strombolian and
Paroxysmal Strombolian).
1. Growth rates of olivine and plagioclase in a decompressing magma: comparison
with natural crystals of the LP magma.
2. Characterization of the fluid phase composition (H2O-CO2) in a decompressing
magma.
3. Mixing experiments with no gas excess/no vesicle in the hydrous portion
4. Textural and compositional analyses of products of mixing experiments and
preliminary interpretation.
1. Experimentally-based modeling of the composition of the fluid phase coexistent with
a degassing magma aimed to describe the fluid evolution under (i) steady state
conditions (closed system), and for (ii) high ascent rates (open system, fluid/melt
kinetic disequilibrium).
2. Comparison of experimental modeling of the fluid phase evolution with the
abundance of volatile species measured in the Stromboli’s plume.
3. Ascent rates and rest depths of the LP magma: an integrate approach using
experimental fluid phase composition and crystal growth rates.
4. Mixing experiments with some gas excess in the hydrous portion
5. Interpretation and modeling of mixing experiments
6. Melt/fluid partitioning of chlorine and its inferences on the degassing activity.
172
1st year
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
6500
0,00
30000
0,00
0,00
500
0,00
0,00
Totale
37000
0,00
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
2nd year
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
7500
0,00
29000
0,00
0,00
500
0,00
0,00
Totale
37000
0,00
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
Total
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
14000
0,00
173
59000
0,00
1000
Totale
0,00
0,00
0,00
74000
0,00
Silvio G. Rotolo, born in Athens (Greece) 23 nov. 1961
1992 PhD in geochemistry.
1995 researcher in Petrology at the University of Palermo (Courses held: Mineralogy,
Optical mineralogy and petrography).
2006 Associate Professor in Petrology, University of Palermo (Courses taught: Petrology,
Regional Petrography, Petrology and field volcanology).
Tutor of 6 PhD Theses and 30 degree thesis.
2000-2003 coordinator of a RU focused on experimental petrology (Stromboli aphyric
magmas pre-eruptive conditons), in the frame of a INGV-DPC volcanological project and
in cooperation with CNRS-ISTO.
2005-2007 coordinator of a RU focused on experimental petrology (Pantelleria felsic
magmas pre-eruptive conditons), in the frame of a INGV-DPC volcanological projec and
in cooperation with CNRS-ISTO.
Research interests:
-Medium to low pressure experimental petrology studies on mafic and acid peralkaline
volcanic rocks (Stromboli, Pantelleria, in cooperation with CNRS-ISTO, France) focused
on the definition of pre-eruptive conditions and volatile solubilities (H2O, CO2, S).
-Petrology and isotope geochemistry of Quaternary volcanism in Sicily (Etna, Ustica,
Pantelleria, Sicily Channel), in cooperation with INGV-Pisa.
- Tephrostratigraphy, Ar/Ar geochronology (in cooperation with CNRS-LSCE, France)
and petrology of pyroclastic formations at Pantelleria island.
-Petrology of recent calcalkaline volcanism in Greece (in cooperation with the University
of Athens).
DI CARLO I., PICHAVANT M., ROTOLO S.G., SCAILLET B. (2006) Experimental constraints
of the crystallization of a high-K Arc Basalt: the Golden Pumice, Stromboli Volcano (Italy).
Journal of Petrology 47 (1317-1343).
ROTOLO S.G., CASTORINA F., CELLURA D., POMPILIO M. (2006) Petrology and
Geochemistry of submarine volcanism in the Sicily Channel Rift Journal of Geology 114/3 (355365)
SCAILLET B., PICHAVANT M. (2004) A model of sulphur solubility for hydrous mafic
melts: application to the determination of magmatic fluid compositions of Italian
volcanoes. Annals of Geophysics, 48, 671-698
BURGISSER, A. SCAILLET B. (2007) Redox evolution of a degassing magma to the
surface and its effects on eruptive dynamics, Nature
LANDI, P., L. FRANCALANCI, M. POMPILIO, M. ROSI, R. A. CORSARO, C. M.
174
PETRONE, I. NARDINI, AND L. MIRAGLIA (2006), The December 2002 July 2003
effusive event at Stromboli volcano, Italy: Insights into the shallow plumbing system by
petrochemical studies, Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 155, 263-284.
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Project V3 – Lava
PROJECT V3 – LAVA
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Project V3 – Lava
Project V3 - LAVA
Realization of the lava flow hazard map at Mount Etna
and set up of a method for its dynamic update
Coordinators:
Ciro Del Negro, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Catania, Piazza
Roma 2, 95123 Catania, Italy, [email protected]
Stefano Gresta, Dipartimento di Scienze Geologiche, Università di Catania, Corso Italia
57, 95129 Catania, Italy, [email protected]
Objectives
Mt. Etna is one of the most active and investigated volcanoes in the world. Its eruptions
are often characterized by lava flows which spread along its flanks. Such eruptions can
potentially reach the villages located to medium-low elevations. Even the area where city of
Catania is settled was reached in the past by the flows outpoured from eruptive fractures opened
at lower elevations. In the last century, the village of Mascali was destroyed by lava flows in
1928, while the villages of Fornazzo in 1979 and Randazzo in 1981 were threatened by lava
flows. More recently, several tourist facilities have been repeatedly destroyed, with serious
damage to the local economy. Some results of the previous INGV-DPC (2004-2006) Project
V3_6 Etna, concerning: (i) the updated catalogue of eruptions, (ii) the better knowledge of the
internal structure of the volcano, (iii) the capability to model in the near-real-time the data from
the monitoring networks with the goal of identifying the most probable areas of opening of an
eruptive fissure, and (iv) the considerable progress in the simulation of lava flows; allow us to
define the objective of the present project. It consists in the production of hazard maps from
invasion of lava flow for medium and short term. The short term maps will be dynamic
instruments, which could be semi-automatically modified by considering the signals collected by
the monitoring networks, the evolution of the eruption, and the weighted opinion of experts.
The research in the project will include the followings steps:
a. Definition and realization of databases and digital maps in GIS architecture,
integrating the geological geophysical, and geochemical information.
b. Definition of the principles and paradigms for the realization of the dynamic hazard
map.
c. Definition of the vent opening probability at medium and short term, on the basis of
data from the terrestrial and satellite observation systems.
d. Application of mathematical models for the prediction of lava flow paths.
e. Realization of the hazard map.
f. Development of methodologies for the dynamic update of the hazard map on the
basis of the data from the observation systems, and comparison with test cases from
recent eruptions.
g. Study of the methodologies for the operational functioning of the new technologies
at point f above, and of the interface modalities with the Functional Center of DPC.
LAVA will provide practical forecasts of the future course of lava flows to enable
quantitative hazard assessments and operational guidelines for, potentially, mitigatory
179
actions to be undertaken. We plan to achieve these forecasts by use of numerical computer
simulation of the flow paths over the surface of the volcano, these simulations will be
constrained by knowledge from former eruptions and from near real-time field and remote
observations of the state of lava flow advance.
Espected products
•
•
•
•
•
•
Guidelines for the realization of the lava flow hazard map and its dynamic
update.
Eruptive fracture/vent opening probability map at medium and short term,
including the dynamic update methodologies at point f above.
Lava flow hazard map at Mount Etna, including the dynamic update
methodologies at point f above.
Applications of the dynamic hazard maps at the two points above to test cases
from recent eruptions at Mount Etna.
Feasibility study for the realization of an interface at the Functional Center of
DPC, to be agreed upon with the same DPC, for the products at the last three
point above.
State of the Art of the ongoing researches related to the present objectives
It is not possible to prevent a volcano from erupting, but it is now becoming possible to
forecast generally where a volcano is likely to direct a lava flow and when such a flow is
underway to forecast its course and rate of advance. Timely predictions of the areas likely
to be invaded by lava flows are of major interest to hazard managers during a volcanic
eruption. Although most volcanic lava flows do not result in loss of human life, they can
potentially cause enormous damage to property. Lava flows can bury homes and
agricultural land under several meters of hardened rock. Typical examples of lava flows
are from the Etna volcano, where its frequent effusive eruptions can pose hazard to several
villages. In order to estimate the amount of damage that can be caused by a lava flow, it is
useful to be able to predict the size and extent of such flows. Numerical simulation is a
good tool to examine such events. With such simulations, one can explore various eruption
scenarios and these can specifically be used to estimate the extent of the invasion area, the
time required for the flow to reach a particular point and resulting morphological changes.
However, it is not easy to develop a robust tool for forecasting lava flow pathways,
because the temperature, rheological properties and effusion rates are not linearly
dependent and they are variables on space-time domain.
The INGV-DPC (2004-2006) Project V3_6 Etna improved the hazard assessment at
Etna through the development of accurate and robust physical-mathematical models able to
forecast the spatial and temporal evolution of lava flows. In particular, the new
MAGFLOW model [RU Del Negro] based on cellular automatons for the simulation of
lava flows was applied to the recent eruptions of 2001, 2004 and 2006 Etna volcano. The
evolution function of this model is a steady state solution of the Navier-Stokes equation in
the case of a horizontal plan. The effect of rheology and cooling are included in the model.
Total flow volumes of 2004 Etna eruption were obtained by integrating the effusion rates
estimated using satellite thermal data over the entire duration of the eruption. MAGFLOW
represents the central part of an extensive methodology for the compilation of hazard maps
related to lava invasion at Mt Etna. Preliminary hazard map was realized by simulating a
number of lava flows from a set of initial data and with different parameters of the volcanic
system in a meaningful range of variation.
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Project V3 – Lava
The already existing SCIARA model [RU Crisci] was integrated with a Genetic
Algorithm (GA) in order to estimate the values of the parameters of the model. This
procedure was necessary because SCIARA works with not physical parameters which
must be determined before every simulation. The application of the GA to SCIARA model
was validated simulating the eruptions of the 2001 and 1991-1993 of Etna. Once that the
SCIARA model was well calibrated and validated, an application for the new kind
compilation of maps showing the hazard related to lava invasion limited to the North
Eastern flank of Mount Etna was achieved. The simulations of the lava flows were also
obtained with DOWNFLOW code, based on the steepest slope [RU Favalli]. Probability
maps of invasion by lava flows constructed for the Mt. Etna using DOWNFLOW were
based on: (i) the probability distribution of the future vents and (ii) the probability
distribution of the length of future lava flows. The (E3) emulator [RU Fortuna] based on
cellular nonlinear network (CNN) for the simulation of lava flows was also introduced.
Two different applications were performed: the former was based on autowaves model,
while in the latter the base equations of the emulator are replaced with the equation of the
motion of a fluid.
In framework of the previous INGV-DPC Etna Project, the treatment of the satellite
imagery in order to recognize thermal anomalies (hot-spot detection) and to estimate the
lava flow rate was also investigated [RUs Tramutoli and Lombardo]. In particular, it was
developed an automatic system for the preprocessing and the computation of lava effusion
rate using infrared satellite data [RU Del Negro]. The relationships between the thermal
and dynamical aspects of lava flows, with the particular objective of understanding the
formation, characteristics and evolution of lava tubes were also studied [RU Tallarico]: (i)
the flow in a cylindrical tube with elliptic section, (ii) the temperature field and heat flow
around elliptical tubes, (iii) the thermo elastic deformation associated to a lava tube, and
(iv) the mechanism of formation of the crust, observing that it generates from the center of
the channel, where the shear rate is low, to the lateral.
The updating of the DEM (Digital Elevation Model) of the Mt. Etna in areas affected
by the volcanic unrest was achieved through the elaboration of the aero-photogrammetric
relieves and photogrammetric elaboration of historical data for the production of DEM pre
and post eruption relative to the events 1991-93, 1999 Bocca Nuova, 1998-2001 Crateri
Sommitali, 2001 flow from 2100 m a.s.l., 2002-03-flows on the S and NE flanks, 2004-05
Valle del Bove [RU Marsella]. At last, it was drawn the complete procedure for the
reconstruction of the geometric and physical data (included associated errors), necessary
for the validation of the lava flow simulations, developed for the 2001 Etna eruption - flow
from 2100 m a.s.l. [RU Coltelli].
On the other side, results of the previous INGV-DPC Etna Project concern a better
knowledge of the shallow plumbing system and structure of the volcano, through the
location and properties of some shallow magma bodies. It is noteworthy also the
identification of “significant anomalies” for earthquake and geochemical parameters, as
well as the definition of the “critical levels” that define the transition between different
stages of activity of the volcano, that was successfully by considering the volcanic tremor
[RU Gresta]. This last result, actually allow us to track the migration of the tremor
source(s) into the shallow part of the volcano body.
Etna will undoubtedly erupt again. When it does, the first critical question that must be
answered is: which areas are threatened with lava invasion? Once the threatened areas are
established, we can address the second critical question: what people, property, and
facilities are at risk? These questions can be answered by estimating the areas most likely
181
to be affected by eruptions on various parts of the volcano. On the base of our experience
in both monitoring and modelling of the lava flow emplacement during past Etna
eruptions, we plan to develop a methodology for computing such estimates on Etna based
on the knowledge of eruptive vents and areas covered by past lava flow eruptions. We will
divide the volcano into potential lava inundation zones and prepare detailed maps of these
zones, which should be presented as layers of a GIS environment.
The application of physical-mathematical models for simulating the lava flow paths
will represent the central part of an extensive methodology for the hazard assessment at
Etna. Hazard assessment will be performed by simulating a number of lava flows from a
set of input data (from the record of past eruptions) in a meaningful range of variation and
by adopting a high-resolution updated Digital Elevation Model (DEM).
The effort to obtain a probabilistic lava flow hazard map of Etna will consist of
following steps:
1. a multivariate statistical analysis of the historical and pre-historical
eruptions will provide: the likelihood of a lava vent at every position on
Etna, the likelihood that vent will produce a specific type of lava flow;
2. random vent location by re-sampling of the vent density surface (Monte
Carlo method), assignment of the most probable flow type, and generation
of the required vent number;
3. parameterization of lava flow: creation of a library of parameter settings,
corresponding to reasonable fits for each of the eruption used, by a series of
trials using the numerical simulations to match the observed spatial
distribution of lava;
4. simulation of the new eruptions by adopting the parameter settings that best
simulate the nearest historical lava flows;
5. evaluation of the probability at any given point to be inundated by lava
flows as the ratio between the number of times that point was overridden by
lava and the total number of simulations.
The simulation approach, to assess lava flow hazard, results in more robust and locally
accurate analysis than a simple probabilistic approach and accounts for the influence of the
actual topography on the path of future lava flows. Generating multiple simulations will
allow us to evaluate the probability of lava inundating anywhere on the surface of the
volcano. This probability will be captured as a hazard map, showing the relative frequency
of lava flows that could potentially inundate specific areas. Such probability maps indicate
the likely areas that could be affected but not which area will be covered by a specific
eruption.
The quantitative description of hazard in terms of vent opening probability will be also
pursued. During recent years, new insights on the behaviour of Mt. Etna have been gained
regarding the understanding of past eruptive activity, the dynamics of the volcano, the
magma transfer processes, and the geophysical and geochemical monitoring. A number of
expertises are now available in many fields of investigation. An effort for an effective
integration of this knowledge, basically to consider information coming from monitoring
activity (i.e. earthquake location, flank inflation/deflation, anomalies in other parameters)
to be interpreted in terms of possible magma upraise/migration, activation of structures,
etc., evolving to the occurrence of the vent opening in a given area of the volcano. The
opinion of a team of experts has been already used in a Bayesian statistical procedure that
accounts for any kind of available information both on real unrest of a volcano, and on
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Project V3 – Lava
simulation of the Vesuvius unrest. The quality of both data and expertise by researchers
will induce to test a retrospective BET application at Mt. Etna for the production of short
term dynamic hazard map when critical levels of the volcano activity are reached.
The problem of building scenarios through the straightforward simulation of lava flows
during ongoing eruptions requires the development, validation and application of accurate
and robust physical-mathematical models able to calculate their spatial and temporal
evolution. Methods for modeling lava flows attempt to simulate how the complex
interaction between flow dynamics and physical properties of lava lead to the final flow
dimensions and morphology observed in the field. Existing and new models based on
different physical formulations and approaches will be developed and applied to real cases
in order to make model inter-comparisons and more robust forecasts of the phenomena.
Models will also use, as much as possible, data deriving from the field observations, for
model validation, and experimental data, for constitutive equations. We will focus on the
integration of robust satellite techniques and advanced numerical models to develop an
automatic monitoring system capable of timely identifying hot volcanic features in near
real time, providing reliable estimation of the effusion rates and accurate simulation of lava
flow space-time evolution in near real-time. To promptly detect volcanic hot spots, high
temporal resolution satellite data will be used, implementing an innovative multi-temporal
approach which has shown to be capable of strongly reducing false alarm occurrence. This
approach, being potentially suitable to identify also anomalous thermal signals that may
sometime precede impending eruptions, will offer a high contribute for early warning
purposes. Satellite thermal anomaly maps will be used to provide early and accurate
effusion rate estimations by means of standard and/or original algorithms. Effusion Rate
products, together with precise and updated DEM, previously derived by using also the
more recent high spatial resolution satellite stereo images, will be used as input parameters
of advanced numerical modelling schemes in order to accurately simulate lava flow paths
and to predict their space-time evolution in a timely manner.
Finally, we will explore the possibility of slowing and diverting the lava flow by using
artificial barriers to guide their course. Simulations of the lava flow paths after the
designed intervention will be performed to predict the benefits of the action the related
rewards and disadvantages respect to the natural path. The barriers will be modelled by
modifying the pre-eruption topography to be used as input parameter of the simulations.
Graphical presentation of the work packages and their interdependencies.
183
List of Research Units (RU):
RU
RU-01*
RU-02
RU-03
RU-04
RU-05
RU-06
RU-07
RU-08
RU-09
RU-10
Ciro Del Negro
Stefano Gresta
Gino Mirocle Crisci
Massimiliano Favalli
Luigi Fortuna
Valerio Lombardo
Maria Marsella
Giovanni Russo
Andrea Tallarico
Valerio Tramutoli
Organization
INGV – Sezione di Catania
University of Catania – DSG
University of Calabria – DST
INGV – Sezione di Pisa
University of Catania – DIEES
INGV – Centro Nazionale Terremoti
University of Roma “La Sapienza” – DITS
University of Catania – DMI
University of Bari – DGG
University of Basilicata- DIFA
Acronym
INGV-CT
UNICT-DSG
UNICAL-DST
INGV-PI
UNICT-DIEES
INGV-CNT
UNIRM-DITS
UNICT-DMI
UNIBA-DGG
UNIBAS-DIFA
*List of Teams (TM) of Research Unit 01:
TEAM
TM-01A
TM-01B
TM-01C
TM-01D
TM-01E
TM-01F
TM-01G
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Mauro Coltelli
Fabrizio Ferrucci
Marco Neri
Harry Pinkerton
Danilo Reitano
Alexis Herault
Annamaria Vicari
Organization
INGV - Sezione di Catania
University of Calabria – DST
INGV Sezione di Catania
University of Lancaster (UK)
INGV Sezione di Catania
Acronym
INGV-CT
UNICAL-DST
INGV-CT
UNILAN-UK
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
Project V3 – Lava
Description of Tasks
LAVA relies upon the integration of advanced numerical models with robust satellite
techniques for dynamic hazard assessment and mitigation. The project will develop along five
Tasks:
Task 1. Guide Line and Protocols – Data Base and digital maps in GIS architecture to integrate
geological, geophysical and geochemical data. Development of protocols and scenarios to
manage lava flow hazard. Feasibility study to transfer results at “Centro Funzionale” of
Department of Civil Protection (DPC).
Task 2. Numerical Simulations and Satellite Techniques – Development of physicalmathematical models for lava flow simulations. Development of techniques based on
satellite data for collecting parameters to be input into lava flow simulators.
Task 3. Lava Flow Invasion Hazard Map – Definition of guidelines to develop lava flow
invasion hazard maps and their dynamic update. Eruption history and features of the lava
flow as a constraint on hazard simulation. Lava flow invasion hazard maps.
Task 4. Vent Opening Probability Map – Mid and short term probability map of eruptive
fracture opening using terrestrial and satellite data. Methodologies for the dynamic
updating of hazard maps based on observable data. Tests on recent eruptive events.
Task 5. Scenario Forecast and Hazard Mitigation – Lava flow simulations driven by
infrared satellite data from active lava flows. Protocols for the real-time prediction of lava
flow paths for planning emergency response. Barrier design for volcano hazard mitigation.
For each Task several Working Packages (WP) have been identified to answer to the
request of the project. A sketch description of each Task will be presented in the next
pages together with a list of expected deliverables (according to the activities planned by
each Research Unit) and the inter-connections between them. A detailed description of the
scientific activities is left to the forms compiled by the Research Units. To assume an
efficient management of this consortium and to build a good communication network, all
Tasks will be directly managed by two coordinators.
Project work breakdown structure.
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TASK 1. GUIDELINES AND PROTOCOLS
RU and TM Partecipating
RU Del Negro, TM Coltelli, TM Ferrucci, TM Neri, TM Pinkerton, TM Reitano, TM
Herault, TM Vicari, RU Gresta, RU Crisci, RU Favalli, RU Fortuna, RU Lombardo, RU
Marsella, RU Russo, RU Tallarico, RU Tramutoli
Objectives
Definition of guidelines to develop lava flow invasion hazard maps and their dynamic
update.
Description of the activity
From our experience in the volcano-specific work we will synthesize new methodologies,
protocols, procedures and scenarios to evaluate and manage lava flow hazards. The
improvement of protocols for forecasting volcanic threat and planning damage reduction
efforts will be used to prepare a guide on prevention and mitigation of volcanic crisis, to be
provided to local governments and civil protection authorities.
Work-Packages
WP 1.1 - Development of internal and public Web portal
An internal and public Web portal will be created by the coordinators at the beginning of
the project. All general information concerning the projects will be posted in this site. The
lava flow hazard maps of Etna volcano, developed on an open source platform, will be
transferred as tools for territorial planning and hazard mapping to end users.
Role of participants
Coordinators: creation of the Web portal uploaded of all general information.
The other Participants: contribution with ideas, information and data.
WP 1.2 – Guide lines for the hazard map and methods for its dynamic update
Elaboration of guidelines on how the hazard map may be organized to be more effective,
including elaboration of methods for its dynamic update by considering time variations of
observations and expert opinions.
Coordinators and the other Participants: transferring of new methodologies, hazard criteria,
protocols, procedures and scenarios to evaluate and manage volcanic hazard to end users.
WP 1.3 – Feasibility study to realize a DPC interface
Definition of procedures and protocols to transfer results coming from Task 3, Task 4, and
Task 5 to DPC about: lateral vents opening probability for different sectors of the
volcanoes, localization of the eruptive vents, lava effusion rate measurements, possible
lava flow paths evaluation, lava movement speed evaluation, definition of the most
exposed villages, time the lava flow needs to reach settled areas, time and kind of
intervention.
Coordinators and the other Participants: transferring of new methodologies, hazard criteria,
protocols, procedures and scenarios to evaluate and manage volcanic hazard to end users.
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Project V3 – Lava
Deliverables
D1.1a – Web site (month 3, update monthly).
D1.1b – Lava flow hazard map on an open source GIS.
D1.2a – Report on lava flow risk evaluation criteria.
D1.2b – Guidelines on prevision, prevention and mitigation of volcanic hazard.
D1.3a – Report on procedures to manage lava flow hazard.
D1.3b – Protocols on hazard management for the end-users.
TASK 2. NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS AND SATELLITE TECHNIQUES
RU Del Negro, TM Ferrucci, TM Pinkerton, TM Reitano, TM Herault, TM Vicari, RU
Crisci, RU Favalli, RU Fortuna, RU Lombardo, RU Russo, RU Tallarico, RU Tramutoli
Objectives
Development of physical-mathematical models for forecasting lava flow paths and
improvement of satellite techniques to drive flow simulations.
We will develop innovative computer codes able to include much of the physical
parameterization of lava flows in terms of viscosity, yield strength, and density and bring
the goal of robust forecasting closer. The code performance will be assessed by a
sensitivity analysis on the input parameters, carried out by simulating actual lava flows
having a well known eruptive history. Moreover, techniques capable of measuring effusion
rates during an eruption are of particular value since accurate effusion rate estimates are
important in hazard prediction, warning, and mitigation. To this end, we will develop
techniques that use thermal infrared satellite data to estimate the instantaneous lava flow
output by a vent throughout eruptions. These time-varying effusion rates will be used to
drive lava flow simulations calculated by physical-mathematical models that can take into
account the way in which effusion rate changes during an eruption and how this influences
the spread of lava as a function of time.
Work-Packages:
WP 2.1 – Physical and chemical parameterization of flow behavior
Collection of the available physical and chemical data for all the lava flow eruptions taken
into account. Conversion of laboratory-derived petrological data into admissible
rheological parameter fields. Evaluation of the input parameters to be used for accurate
simulations of the observed final flow extent.
TM Coltelli: collection of the available physical and chemical data for lava flow eruptions
of Etna volcano; input parameter evaluation and library of simulator parameters creation.
RU Tallarico and TM Pinkerton: laboratory- and field-derived lava rheology analysis and
rheological modelling; input parameter evaluation and library of simulator parameters
creation.
WP 2.2 – Development of thermal and fluid-dynamical models of lava flows
Quantitative studies on the dynamics of lava flows in order to provide the physical
constrains necessary to develop a method to predict the lava flows path. Improvement of
the reliability of the dynamical models of lava flows considering non-linear rheologies.
187
The latest multicomponent models for lava viscosity will be included in the numerical
codes.
RU Tallarico and TM Pinkerton: experimental data concerning thermal properties of lava.
RU Russo and RU Tallarico: Dynamical models with non linear rheology. Models for crust
formation.
WP 2.3 – Development of techniques for hot-spot detection
Development and validation up to a pre-operative level of robust satellite techniques for
real-time detection and monitoring of hot spots related to volcanic eruptions.
RU Tramutoli, RU Fortuna, TM Vicari, and RU Lombardo: improved algorithms for hot
spots detection based on MODIS and AVHRR sensors
TM Ferrucci, TM Vicari, and RU Del Negro: improved algorithms for hot spots detection
based on SEVIRI and MODIS sensors.
WP 2.4 - Development of techniques for lava effusion rate measurements
Development and validation up to a pre-operative level of robust satellite techniques for
near real-time effusion rate lava flow estimations.
RU Tramutoli, RU Del Negro, RU Tallarico, RU Fortuna and RU Lombardo: improved
algorithms for measurements of effusion rate based on MODIS and AVHRR sensors
RU Ferrucci and RU Del Negro: improved algorithms for hot spots detection based on
SEVIRI and MODIS sensors.
WP 2.5 – Development of techniques for intra-event rapid DEM mapping
Definition of an innovative approach for rapid generation Digital Elevation Model over
area where volcano unrest is occurring.
RU Lombardo, RU Del Negro: Study of a methodology for post-event DEM correction
starting from a pre-event DEM and jointly using all the different sensors data available
over the area
WP 2.6 – Development of numerical models for lava flow simulations
Existing and new models based on different physical formulations and approaches will be
developed and applied to real cases in order to make model inter-comparisons and more
robust forecasts of the phenomena. Models will also use, as much as possible, data
deriving from the field observations, for model validation, and experimental data, for
constitutive equations.
RU Del Negro, RU Russo, RU Fortuna, TM Herault, and TM Vicari: development of
computer coded, code performance and sensitivity analyses.
RU Del Negro, TM Vicari, TM Herault, and TM Coltelli: testing different ways to
assimilate field observations into the simulation code.
RU Del Negro, RU Fortuna, RU Russo, TM Herault, TM Vicari: sensitivity analyses on
topographic data.
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Project V3 – Lava
Deliverables
D2.1 - Database of chemical and physical parameters to fit the observed geometrical
features of selected eruptions.
D2.2 – Report on thermal and fluid-dynamical models of lava flows.
D2.3 – Report on techniques for hot-spot detection.
D2.4 – Report on techniques for lava effusion rate measurements.
D2.5 – Report on techniques for intra-event rapid DEM mapping.
D2.6a – Report on the numerical simulation techniques adopted for forecast and
probabilistic hazard assessment.
D2.6b – Report on sensitivity analysis of the code to the input parameters.
D2.6c – Report on how best to assimilate observational data into simulations.
TASK 3. LAVA FLOW INVASION HAZARD MAP
RU Del Negro, TM Coltelli, TM Neri, TM Pinkerton, TM Reitano, TM Herault, TM
Vicari, RU Crisci, RU Favalli, RU Fortuna, RU Russo
Objectives
Realization of lava flow invasion hazard maps. Lava flow hazard map for Etna volcano
will be implemented on GIS environment by means of a statistical analysis of the
simulated lava-flow eruptions obtained by numerical modelling of long- and short-term
forecasts of the evolution of volcanic phenomena.
The probabilistic long-term hazard assessment will be based on the positioning of a fixed
number of vents, through a multivariate statistical analysis on past eruptions. Eruption
history and features of the lava flow past will be a constraint on hazard simulation. The
probabilistic short-term hazard assessment will be based on the evaluation of the most
probable eruption expected in next period (years – tens of years). The library of input
chemical and physical parameters will allow to set the eruption characteristics to be
assigned to the selected vents. Monte Carlo-derived ensemble simulations will be used to
evaluate long-term lava flow hazard as the probability of invasion of every point that is the
ratio between the number of overruns and the total number of simulations. This probability
map will define the relative lava flow hazards over the whole volcano.
Work-Packages
WP 3.1 – Eruption history as a constraint on hazard simulation
Geo-Database of the features of the lava flow eruption of the last 4 century. Use of well
known lava flow eruptions for Etna volcano from literature and non-published data
available at the INGV-CT to constrain general volcano behaviour: duration, volume,
effusion rate trend, rheological quality of the lava flow eruptions.
TM Coltelli and TM Neri: space-temporal statistical analysis of the lava flow eruptions to
generate classes and probability distribution functions that will act as specific constraints to
the probabilistic generation of simulation ensembles.
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WP 3.2 – Topographic data quality
Collection of the available topographic data for all the studied volcanic areas. Analysis of
the topographic data quality (precision and accuracy). Analysis of the effect of that quality
on the lava flow simulations.
TM Coltelli: collection of the available Etna topographic data, analysis of their influence
on lava flow simulations.
RU Marsella and Favalli: topographic data requirement and quality assessment for
numerical simulations; analysis of their influence on lava flow simulations.
WP 3.3 – GIS database developing for hazard map
The already available GIS of the geological map of Etna will be extended to include the
physical and chemical information of the historical lava flow eruptions revised by both
recent studies and the new historical catalogue of the eruptions performed by INGV-CT.
Geometrical data obtained by topographic techniques will also be included. In order to
anticipate areas that could be overrun by lava from different source regions, a layer of the
new GIS will be realized to report the identified lava flow inundation zones on the base of
both new high-resolution geological data and the simulated lava-flow eruptions obtained
by numerical modelling of long- and short-term forecasts of the evolution of volcanic
phenomena. The areas with highest probability of lava invasion around several villages in
the Etnean region will be identified.
RU Del Negro, TM Coltelli, and TM Reitano: updating of the GIS of Etna geological map
to include physical, chemical and geometrical parameters of the historical lava flows;
introducing new layers for lava inundation zoning.
WP 3.4: Probabilistic lava flow simulations for long-term volcanic hazard assessment
The probabilistic long-term hazard assessment will be based on the catalogue of past
eruptions and on the positioning of a fixed number of vents, through a multivariate
statistical analysis. The database and the considerations reported will allow to set up the
eruption characteristics to be assigned to the selected vents.
RU Del Negro, RU Crisci and RU Favalli: running of a great number of lava flow
simulations, whose characteristics will be selected by a statistical analysis of past events, to
asses long-term hazard.
RU Del Negro, TM Herault, TM Vicari, TM Coltelli, and RU Russo: statistical analysis of
past events to select the characteristics of simulated lava flows.
WP 3.5: Probabilistic lava flow simulations for short-term volcanic hazard assessment
The probabilistic short-term hazard assessment will be based on the evaluation of the most
probable eruption expected in next period (years – tens of years) and on the positioning of
a fixed number of vents, through a multivariate statistical analysis.
RU Del Negro, RU Crisci and RU Favalli: short-term hazard assessment running a number
of lava flow simulations close to the most probable eruption expected in next period.
RU Del Negro TM Herault, TM Vicari, TM Coltelli, and TM Fortuna: statistical analysis
of recent events to select the characteristics of simulated lava flows.
190
Project V3 – Lava
WP 3.6 – Statistic analysis of the simulation results and implementation of the hazard map
The long-term hazard map will show the probability of invasion of every point, defined as
the ratio between the number of overruns and the total number of simulations. This map
will define the total area that could potentially be affected but not which area will be
covered by a specific eruption.
RU Del Negro, RU Russo, RU Fortuna, TM Herault, TM Vicari and TM Coltelli: analysis
of simulation results to provide the long- and short-term hazard map.
RU Del Negro, TM Coltelli and TM Reitano: implementation of the GIS database of Etna
hazard map.
Deliverables:
D3.1 – Past eruptions features, including geological, physical chemical and geometrical
data, structured as GIS layers.
D3.2a – Collection of all the available topographic data on Etna volcano which satisfy the
accuracy requirements for the simulations.
D3.2b – Report on topographic data collected including quality assessment.
D3.3 – Generation of classes and probability distribution functions, by a space-temporal
statistical analysis of the eruptions, to constrain the probabilistic generation of simulation
ensembles.
D3.4 – Report on the result of the long-term volcanic hazard assessment.
D3.5 – Report on the result of the short-term volcanic hazard assessment.
D3.6 – GIS database of Etna lava flow hazard map.
TASK 4. VENT OPENING PROBABILITY MAP
RU Gresta, TM Neri, TM Reitano, RU Del Negro, RU Russo
Objectives
Definition of a medium term hazard map of the vent opening probability. Development of
new methodologies to update in time the short term probability hazard map.
Realization of a probabilistic assessment of vent location mainly based on seismological
(earthquakes and tremor) and volcanological data, integrated with other geophysical and
geochemical data, in co-operation with expert researchers by INGV (Roma, Bologna,
Catania and Palermo).
Work-Packages
WP 4.1 Database in GIS architecture (in co-operation with Project V4-Flank)
A huge amount of data and information need to be analyzed and combined in order to
better investigate the direct and derived volcanic hazards. All data available in the project
together with lava flow simulations and satellite images will be transformed and unified in
a coherent way to allow integration into a geographic information system (GIS). A
completely new, interactive, and user-friendly software tool will be developed as a webbased multimedia platform. Collection of geophysical, volcanological and geochemical
191
data acquired at Etna from 1996 to 2004. The database will be implemented with the aim
of ensure the maximum compatibility with the WOVOdat standard.
TM Reitano and RU Del Negro: organization of the database, collection of validated data
from surveys and previous monitoring systems operating on the volcano.
RU Gresta and TM Neri: providing seismological, geophysical, volcanological,
geochemical data in hard and/or elaborated versions.
WP 4.2 Medium term probability map for the opening of eruptive fractures.
Definition of the features of structural trends; distribution of vents, fractures and fissure.
Analysis of the eruptive history of the volcano. Test for the stability and choice of the
reference medium term hazard map.
RU Gresta and TM Neri: analysis and interpretation of geo-structural and volcanological
data in order to produce the reference medium term hazard map.
WP 4.3 Time update of the probability map for the opening of eruptive fractures.
Analysis of data coming from WP4.1. Choice of the significant benchmarks for the
retrospective analysis of the state of the volcano. Application of BET. Procedures to test
the weight of the single input parameters. Test for the stability of results by changing input
parameters and weight of the expert opinion. Choice of the reference medium term hazard
map.
RU Gresta, TM Neri, and RU Russo: analysis of seismological, geophysical,
volcanological, geochemical data referring to several pre-eruptive periods (basically during
the time span 1996-2004). Application of BET to update the probability map.
Deliverables
D4.1 – Data base
D4.2a – Reference hazard map for vent opening probability
D4.2b – Test for the stability
D4.3a – Dynamic maps of the hazard of opening vents.
D4.3b – Test on the different weights for parameters and expert opinions
D4.3c – Validation of BET.
TASK 5. SCENARIO FORECAST AND HAZARD MITIGATION
RU Del Negro, TM Coltelli, TM Ferrucci, TM Herault, TM Vicari, RU Crisci, RU Favalli,
RU Fortuna, RU Lombardo, RU Marsella, RU Tramutoli
Objectives
Lava flow simulations driven by infrared satellite data of an ongoing effusive eruption.
Protocols for the real-time prediction of lava flow paths for planning emergency response.
Barrier design for volcano hazard mitigation.
192
Project V3 – Lava
The simulation of an ongoing effusive eruption must be based on the estimation of all the
observable data (position of flow source, area, thickness, channel speed, extrusion rate,
front advance and temperature) using ground-based and satellite-borne techniques. This
data can then be used to both initialize flow simulations and to attempt near real-time
correction of these simulations via assimilation of new observations. The simulation of
flow emplacement will start from the reproduction of the actual lava extent, and then it will
be carried on through the implementation of a number of possible evolution scenarios.
Such simulations could foresee inhabited areas or structures to be threatened by a lava flow
and they may be adopted to check the results of mitigatory actions, such as building up of
earth barriers or excavation of artificial channels. These operations can be easily modelled
after an opportune modification of the volcano topography.
Work-Packages
WP 5.1 – Hot-spot detection in near real-time
Near real-time detection and monitoring of thermal anomalies related to volcanic eruptions
from thermal infrared satellite imagery. Completely automated generation of satellite data
based products.
RU Del Negro, TM Ferrucci, TM Vicari, RU Lombardo, RU Tramutoli: Implementation
and test of automated processing chain for satellite product generation.
RU Del Negro, TM Ferrucci, TM Vicari, RU Lombardo, RU Tramutoli: Design,
implementation and test of interfaces for the integration of satellite based products into the
DPC operational system.
WP 5.2 – Near real-time data collection of critical lava-flow emplacement parameters
Observations of flow source, area, thickness, channel speed, front advance and temperature
using ground-based, air-borne and satellite-borne techniques. Conversion of these specific
observations in an assimilation scheme that will use them to modify/implement the forward
flow simulations.
TM Coltelli: study of what observations are available and best suited for assimilation into
the simulations; measurements of syn-eruptive data during an Etna eruption; conversion of
specific observations in an assimilation scheme to implement the forward flow simulations.
RU Marsella: measurements of syn-eruptive data during an Etna eruption by topographic
techniques.
RU Tallarico and TM Pinkerton: conversion of rheological observations in input data for
lava flow simulation.
WP 5.3 – Effusion rates from thermal infrared satellite imagery
Near real-time satellite-based measurements of effusion rate during on-going eruptions.
Automated system for the acquisition/ processing/post-processing/delivery of satellite data.
RU Del Negro, TM Ferrucci, TM Vicari, RU Lombardo, RU Tramutoli: Implementation
and test of automated processing chain for satellite product generation.
RU Del Negro, TM Ferrucci, TM Vicari, RU Lombardo, RU Tramutoli: Design,
implementation and test of interfaces for the integration of satellite based products into the
DPC operational system.
193
WP 5.4 – Lava flow paths forecasting during an eruption
Lava flow emplacement during an ongoing eruption will be forecasted by simulations
starting from the actual lava extent. A number of possible evolution scenarios should be
implemented for assessing its progress.
RU Del Negro, TM Herault, TM Vicari, RU Crisci, RU Favalli: definition of possible
eruption scenarios and simulation of the ongoing eruption.
RU Del Negro: definition of possible environment scenarios.
WP 5.5 – Lava flow simulations including diversion barriers during an eruption
The simulations carried out during an ongoing eruption could foresee inhabited areas or
structures to be threatened by a lava flow. In such cases simulations may check the results
of mitigatory actions such as building up of earth barriers or excavation of artificial
channels. Such operation can be easily simulated after an opportune modification of the
volcano topography. Planning the protection of some selected sensitive objectives that
were really threatened during recent Etna eruptions.
TM Coltelli, TM Herault, TM Vicari: definition of mitigatory actions on the ongoing
eruption and their simulation.
RU Marsella: make opportune modifications of the volcano topography for planning of
mitigatory actions on the ongoing eruption.
RU Del Negro: management of mitigatory actions on the ongoing eruption.
Deliverables
D5.1a - Hot-spot detection in near real time from satellite data.
D5.2a - Report on suitable observational data sources, types and quality.
D5.2b - Database of all the available syn-eruptive data of an ongoing eruption (depending
on the eruption).
D5.3 – Effusion rate measurements in near real time from satellite data.
D5.4 - Report on the simulation of different scenarios of an ongoing eruption (depending
on the eruption).
D5.5a - Report on the simulation of different scenarios of an ongoing eruption by taking
into account mitigatory actions (depending on the eruption).
D5.5b - Planning, simulating and analysis of test cases of the protection of selected
sensitive objectives at Etna.
194
Project V3 – Lava
Flow chart of project achievements and products
195
List of deliverables
General
1. Data used in the project, organized in a database.
2. Guidelines for the realization of lava flow invasion hazard maps and their dynamic
update.
3. Probability map of opening of new fractures and eruptive vents on a short and medium
period, realized by dynamic update methodologies.
4. Hazard map for invasion of lava flows, realized using dynamic update methodology.
5. Tests of some selected eruptions for the vent opening probability maps, for the lava
flow invasion hazard maps, and for the methodology for the dynamic update.
6. Feasibility study to transfer results at “Centro Funzionale” of Dept. of Civil Protection
(DPC).
Task 1. Guide Line and Protocols
D1.1a – Web site (month 3, update monthly).
D1.1b – Lava flow hazard map on an open source GIS.
D1.2a – Report on lava flow risk evaluation criteria.
D1.2b – Guidelines on prevision, prevention and mitigation of volcanic hazard.
D1.3a – Report on procedures to manage lava flow hazard.
D1.3b – Protocols on hazard management for the end-users.
Task 2. Numerical Simulations and Satellite Techniques
D2.1 - Database of chemical and physical parameters of selected eruptions.
D2.2 – Report on thermal and fluid-dynamical models of lava flows.
D2.3 – Report on techniques for hot-spot detection.
D2.4 – Report on techniques for lava effusion rate measurements.
D2.5 – Report on techniques for intra-event rapid DEM mapping.
D2.6a – Report on numerical simulation techniques adopted for forecast and probabilistic
hazard assessment.
D2.6b – Report on sensitivity analysis of the code to the input parameters.
D2.6c – Report on how best to assimilate observational data into simulations.
Task 3. Lava Flow Invasion Hazard Map
D3.1 – Past eruptions features, including geological, physical chemical and geometrical
data, structured as GIS layers.
D3.2a – Collection of all the available topographic data on Etna volcano which satisfy the
accuracy requirements for the simulations.
D3.2b – Report on topographic data collected including quality assessment.
D3.3 – Generation of classes and probability distribution functions, by a space-temporal
statistical analysis of the eruptions, to constrain the probabilistic generation of simulation
ensembles.
D3.4 – Report on the result of the long-term volcanic hazard assessment.
D3.5 – Report on the result of the short-term volcanic hazard assessment.
D3.6 – GIS database of Etna lava flow hazard map.
Task 4. Vent Opening Probability Map
D4.1 – Data base
D4.2a – Reference hazard map for vent opening probability
D4.2b – Test for the stability
D4.3a – Dynamic maps of the hazard of opening vents.
196
Project V3 – Lava
D4.3b – Test on the different weights for parameters and expert opinions
D4.3c – Validation of BET.
Task 5. Scenario Forecast and Hazard Mitigation
D5.1a - Hot-spot detection in near real time from satellite data.
D5.2a - Report on suitable observational data sources, types and quality.
D5.2b - Database of all the available syn-eruptive data of an ongoing eruption.
D5.3 – Effusion rate measurements in near real time from satellite data.
D5.4 - Report on the simulation of different scenarios of an ongoing eruption.
D5.5a - Report on the simulation of different scenarios of an ongoing eruption by taking
into account mitigatory actions (depending on the eruption).
D5.5b - Planning, simulating and analysis of test cases of the protection of selected
sensitive objectives at Etna.
197
Project implementation
Main project outputs and milestones
• MS1 (Month 7): Lava-flow numerical simulation codes, satellite-based techniques and
specifications of data to run the model are provided.
• MS2 (Month 13; Mid term assessment): Lava-flow hazard map and vent opening
probability map development are addressed. Lava diversion barrier strategies are
essentially defined. Evaluating of mid-term results to redefine (if necessary) the work
plan for the remaining part of the contract.
• MS3 (Month 20): Lava-flow hazard maps and vent opening probability maps for the
Etna volcano are provided.
• MS4 (Month 26; at the end of the project): Report on the management of lava flow
hazards and the feasibility study for the realization of an interface to transfer results at
“Centro Funzionale” of Department of Civil Protection (DPC) are provided.
Project reports
To keep the project effective from the start, the project management plan will be
elaborated in detail before the start of the project. The project management plan includes
guidelines for deliverables, presentation and reporting standards, deadlines. The
coordinators will assemble and control the deliverables, supervise the evolving project
results at each six month milestone.
Project reports will be produced as follows:
Management report: at the end of year 1 and 2 the Project Coordinators will produce a
management report that will include a description of progress according to the work-plan.
Scientific report: at the end of year 1 and 2 the Project Coordinators will compile (from
task contributions) a comprehensive project report on the results and activities of all the
participants
At the end of the project, a Final report will be submitted to the Evaluation Committee,
according to guidelines given at the contract negotiation stage. This report will include a
detailed summary of the scientific achievements of the project. A list of scientific
publications on the results of the project will be included.
Project meetings
On whole project, Project meetings will be held twice during each project year to discuss
research and planning. The main objectives of these meetings will be to present an update
of the research to the entire consortium. The RU Leaders (or members of individual teams
when necessary) will present the results, and this will be followed by a workshop style
session and discussion. The coordinators will be responsible for administrative
arrangements of meetings.
This is a multidisciplinary project and it is not expected that all partners will be adequately
aware of the latest developments in all the relevant fields. To help overcome this and to
foster more scientific cohesion, we will commence the Kick-off meeting with a one day
workshop. The objective of this workshop will be to inform participants about the basic
principles behind and state of the art in all disciplines involved in the project.
We are aware that some points of V3 LAVA and V4 FLANK projects are overlapping.
Some ones are “technical” aspects as the common use of same data bases, digital elevation
models, etc. Other ones are complementary activities aimed at defining the general
knowledge of volcano dynamics. For these reasons, we intend to hold our Kick-off
meeting in conjunction with V4 FLANK project, and planned a continuous exchange of
data and information through the whole duration of the two projects.
198
Project V3 – Lava
Consortium as a whole
This project gathers the efforts of 11 Research Units (RUs), belonging to 7 Departments of
Italian Universities and 4 INGV Sections. The experience and expertise of the consortium
spans the entire range of multidisciplinary tasks addressed in LAVA. The partnership
represents an optimal mix of interdisciplinary skills, scientific both academic and
application oriented ones, the latter in sense of volcano monitoring, and Civil Protection
authority. All the groups are carrying out leading edge research in their area of expertise.
The consortium was built with an eye on the complementary character of the expertise and
the interdisciplinary nature of the project. We confide that this consortium is well-balanced
in relation to the objectives of the project. Most teams have already worked together within
previous DPC programmes on projects involving volcanic problems. This makes the team
confident of an effective and efficient working relationship.
Resources to be committed
Most partners will recruit postdoctoral fellows directly funded through the project, and the
requested budget takes these into account. Considering that all groups are carrying out
leading edge research on hazard assessment and management of volcanic threats, they will
provide a high quality training environment for the young researchers (PhD students and
post doctoral fellows) and experts on risk management who will be employed in the
project.
The Management activities costs have been requested only by the project coordinators.
199
TABLE MAN/MONTHS
Research
Unit
RU-01*
RU-02
RU-03
RU-04
RU-05
RU-06
RU-07
RU-08
RU-09
RU-10
Institution
INGV- CT
UNICTDSG
UNICALDST
INGV-PI
UNICTDIEES
INGV-CNT
UNIRMDITS
UNICTDMI
UNIBADGG
UNIBASDIFA
Principal
Responsible
Del Negro
Gresta
Task
1
Tas
k2
Tas
k3
Tas
k4
Tas
k5
@
@
@
@
@
@
Crisci
@
@
@
Favalli
Fortuna
@
@
@
@
Lombardo
Marsella
@
Russo
@
@
Tallarico
Tramutoli
Personmonths
cofunded
Personmonths
requested
121
79
8*
@
@
46
23
1
@
@
30
16
4*
@
25
@
30
@
@
44
@
@
56
Total
470
13
*Teams of Research Unit 01
Team
Institution
Principal
Responsible
Coord.
INGV- CT
Del Negro
TM-01A
Coltelli
TM-01E
TM-01F
INGV- CT
UNICALDST
INGV- CT
UNILANUK
INGV- CT
INGV- CT
TM-01G
INGV- CT
Vicari
TM-01B
TM-01C
TM-01D
Total
200
Tas
k2
Tas
k3
Tas
k4
Tas
k5
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
10
10
@
@
@
2
8
Ferrucci
@
Neri
Pinkerton
Reitano
Herault
Personmonths
cofunded
Tas
k1
@
@
@
@
@
3
26
31
@
@
@
31
@
@
121
Personmonths
requested
Project V3 – Lava
Project V3 – LAVA. Financial Plan for the First Phase (Euros).
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
1800
0,00
75700
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
1000
193000
0,00
2000
0,00
57700
0,00
28800
0,00
360000
0,00
Totale
0,00
Project V3 – LAVA. Financial Plan for the Second Phase (Euros).
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
1800
0,00
73700
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
1000
198000
0,00
2000
0,00
55500
0,00
28000
0,00
360000
0,00
Totale
0,00
201
Project V3 – LAVA. Total Financial Plan, First + Second Phase (Euros).
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
3600
0,00
149400
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
2000
391000
0,00
4000
0,00
113200
0,00
56800
0,00
720000
0,00
Totale
202
0,00
Project V3 – Lava
Project V3 – LAVA. Table RU’s and related funding request.
N. RU
Istituz.
Resp UR
Personale
Missioni
Studi,ricerche
Costi
e prestazioni
amministrativi
professionali
2nd
1st
2nd
1st
2nd
1st
1st
phase phase phase phase phase phase phase
RU-1
RU-2
RU-3
RU-4
RU-5
RU-6
RU-7
RU-8
RU-9
RU10
INGV-CT
UNI-CT
UNI-CAL
INGV-PI
UNI-CT
INGV-CNT
UNI-RM1
UNI-CT
UNI-BA
Del Negro
Gresta
Crisci
Favalli
Fortuna
Lombardo
Marsella
Russo
Tallarico
32000 30000
10000 10000
1800
UNI-BAS Tramutoli
TOTAL
1000
1800
1800
1000 64000
Materiale
durevole
e di consumo
Spese
indirette
2nd
1st
2nd
1st
2nd
1st
2nd
phase phase phase phase phase phase phase
72000
10200
2000 10000 10000
5000
5000
8000
8000
5000
5000
2000
2000
2200
2200
10000
10000
4000
4000
2000
2000
3500
3500
19000
19000
1000
1000
500
500
4000
4000
3000
9200 12200
1800
1800
4000
4000
10000
10000
1000
4000
4000
19000
19000
500
500
500
500
8000
8000
25000
25000
3000
3000
4000
4000
3000
3000
12000
12000
3000
3000
2000
2000
2000 57700 55500 28800
28000
1000
23000 2000
21000 15800 11000
5000
1800 75700 73700
23000
Servizi
1000 193000 198000 2000
5000
1000
GRAND TOTAL: 720000
203
*Teams of Research Unit 01
1) Spese di
personale
Team
Phase a
Phase b
2) Spese per
missioni
3) Costi amministr.
(solo per Coord. di
Progetto)
4) Spese
studi e ricerche e
prestazioni
professionali
Phase a
Phase b
5000
5000
10000
10000
1000
8000
Phase a
Phase b
Phase a
Phase b
Coord.
7000
7000
1000
1000
TM-01A
7000
7000
TM-01B
TM-01C
4000
4000
TM-01D
7) Spese indirette
(spese generali)
Phase a
Phase b
Phase a
2000
2000
6000
6000
2000
2000
1000
1800
1800
1200
1200
8000
2000
2000
3000
3000
8000
5200
Phase a
Phase b
Phase b
TM-01E
2000
TM-01F
6000
6000
20000
20000
3000
3000
1000
1000
TM-01G
6000
6000
20000
20000
3000
3000
1000
1000
32000
30000
64000
72000
21000
15800
11000
10200
Sub-total
204
6) Materiale
tecnico durevole e
consumo
5) Spese per
servizi
1000
1000
800
Project V3 – Lava
PROJECT V3 – LAVA
205
206
Project V3 – Lava
Project V3 - LAVA
Realization of the lava flow invasion hazard map at Mt Etna
and methods for its dynamic update
RU V3/01
Scientific Responsible: Ciro Del Negro, Senior researcher, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica
e Vulcanologia-Sezione di Catania, Piazza Roma 2, 95123 Catania, email:
[email protected], tel: 095-7165823, fax: 095 435801
RU Composition:
Man/Months 1st
phase
5
Man/Months 2nd
phase
5
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Ciro Del Negro
Senior
researcher
INGV-CT
Participants
Position
Institution
Man/Months 1st
phase
Man/Months 2nd
phase
Senior
researcher
Researcher
Contract Res.
Fellow
INGV-CT
2
2
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
3
0
0
3
0
0
Associate
Professor
Università
della Calabria
1
1
Researcher
Researcher
Contract Res.
Researcher
INGV-CT
UniRM3
INGV-RM
INGV-CT
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
1
Team 01A
Mauro Coltelli *
Stefano Branca
Cristina Proietti
Emanuela De Beni
Team 01B
Fabrizio Ferrucci *
Team 01C
Neri Marco *
Valerio Acocella
Boris Behncke
Salvatore
Giammanco
Mazzarini
Francesco
Derek Rust
Researcher
INGV-PI
0
0
Senior Res.
Brunel Univ.
1
1
Team 01D
Harry Pinkerton *
Full Professor
1
1
Mike James
Research Fellow
Lancaster
Univ.
Lancaster Univ
0.5
0.5
Team 01E
Danilo Reitano *
Marcello Dagostino
Orazio Torrisi
Fabrizio Pistagna
Antonino Drago
Silvia Cariolo
Gaetano Russo
Sebastiano Lizzio
Technologist
CTER
CTER
Fellow
Fellow
CoCoPro
CoCoPro
CoCoPro
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
PON COMETA
PON COMETA
PON COMETA
PON COMETA
PON COMETA
3
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
3
2
2
6
6
Team 01F
Alexis Herault *
Research Fellow
INGV-CT
3
3
207
Gilda Currenti
Rosalba Napoli
Scandura Danila
Budetta Gennaro
Salvatore Giudice
Researcher
Researcher
PhD student
Director of Res.
PhD student
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
0
3
0
3
7
0
3
6
3
0
Team 01G
Annamaria Vicari *
Alessia Ciraudo
Gaetana Ganci
Filippo Greco
Karabiber Fethullah
Researcher
Post-doc student
Post-doc student
Technologist
PhD student
2
0
3
3
3
2
3
3
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Antonino Sicali
CTER
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
University of
Istanbul
INGV-CT
3
3
*Scientific responsible of the Team
Description of Activity
WP 1.2 Guide lines for the hazard map and methods for its dynamic update
WP 1.3 Feasibility study to realize a DPC interface
From our experience in the volcano-specific work we will synthesize new methodologies,
protocols, procedures and scenarios to evaluate and manage lava flow hazards. The
improvement of protocols for forecasting volcanic threat and planning damage reduction
efforts will be used to prepare a guide on prevention and mitigation of volcanic crisis, to be
provided to local governments and civil protection authorities.
Team 01A – Mauro Coltelli
WP 3.1 Eruption history as a constraint on hazard simulation
In order to identify the areas with the highest probability of source vents and to analyse the
typical physical features (duration, volume, effusion rate trend, rheological quality) of the
lava flow eruptions occurring in that areas. A zoning, on the basis of historical, prehistoric
and geological records, is necessary. These areas will be assumed as sources of lava flows
to be simulated, having an uniform distribution inside, and taking into account the overall
probability density distribution. The key information to carry out this work comes from the
new geological map of Etna volcano and the recent revision of the catalogue of the
historical eruptions of Etna (Branca et al., 2004a; 2004b; Branca and Del Carlo, 2004,
2005).
Volcanics erupted during the past 15 ka cover about the 85% of the volcano edifice.
Geological mapping of each recognized lava flow, belonging to a single eruptive event,
was performed. The stratigraphic relationship between each lava flow and the Holocene
tephrostratigraphic marker beds (Coltelli et al., 2000) allows to define the chronological
evolution of the eruptive activity in this time span. This methodological approach
permitted the detailed reconstruction of the volcanic history of the past 4 ka when eruptive
activity has strongly increased in both explosive and effusive phenomena.
Tephrostratigraphic and geological data have evidenced that he number of the eruptions
has increased fourfold in the last 4 ka in comparison to that occurred in the 10 ka before
(Del Carlo et al., 2004; Branca et al., 2004). In particular, about 100 flank lava-flow
eruptions for millennium occurred in the last 4 ka (Branca et al., 2004). Data of the historic
eruptions analysis is in agreement with this reconstruction; in fact 54 flank eruptions
occurred in the period 1670-2003 (Branca and Del Carlo, 2005), confirming that the high
eruption rate period, started 4 ka ago, is still ongoing.
The vent zoning and the reconstruction of the main features of the past Etna’s lava flow
eruptions, are very time and personnel consuming works. Consequently we propose to start
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with an application of the method to the last four centuries including corrective factors to
the less frequent eruption, in particular which occurred on the lower slopes, as derived
from the qualitative analysis of the periods 1599 - 0 AD and 0 AD - 2 ka BC data, that
cover the most representative period for the Etna long term eruptive behaviour (Coltelli et
al., 2000; Branca et al. 2004).
WP 3.4 Probabilistic lava flow simulations for long-term volcanic hazard assessment
WP 3.5 Probabilistic lava flow simulations for short-term volcanic hazard assessment
WP 3.6 Statistic analysis of the simulation results and implementation of the hazard map
The effort to obtain a probabilistic lava flow hazard map of Etna will follow the way traced
by a pioneer work of Wadge et al. (1994). The proposed work consists of:
1. A multivariate statistical analysis of the 1600 to present (including corrective factors
extracted by the last 4 ka record) eruptions to provide the likelihood of a lava vent at
every (x,y) position on Etna, the likelihood that vent will produce a specific type of
lava flow.
2. Random vent location by resampling of the vent density surface (Monte Carlo method),
assignment of the most probable flow type, and generation of the required vent
number.
3. Parameterization of lava flow: creation of a library of parameter settings,
corresponding to reasonable fits for each of the eruption used, by a series of trials using
the numerical simulations to match the observed spatial distribution of lava.
4. Simulation of the new eruptions by adopting the parameter settings that best simulate
the nearest historical lava flows.
5. Evaluation of the probability at any given point to be inundated by lava flows as the
ratio between the number of times that point was overridden by lava and the total
number of simulations.
Team 01B – Fabrizio Ferrucci
WP 5.1 Hot-spot detection in near real-time
WP 5.3 Effusion rates from thermal infrared satellite imagery
Having assigned the lava rheology and the model terrain, the effusion rate (m3/s) is the
main controlling factor of behaviour, travelled distance and final dimensions of flows: the
control or prediction of volumes, conversely, heavily relies upon vesicularity or porosity. It
has been shown that rapidly varying effusion rates during eruptions - heavily influencing
lava spreading, especially when peak effusion rates are high (over 10-15 m3/s) - can be
efficiently dealt with by high repetition rate, more than by high resolution thermal remote
sensed analysis. This held true for radiometers AVHRR (in spite of the dynamic range of
channels unsuited to volcano observation) and MODIS, and was recently demonstrated to
hold true also for SEVIRI, onboard the geosynchronous platform MSG2.
In LAVA, effusion rates will be estimated using high-temporal/high-spectral/low-spatial
resolution observation allowed by multispectral payload SEVIRI, whose 15-minute refresh
capacity is ideally fitting the needs for the near-real-time prediction of lava flows, based on
straightforward modelling.
Scientific and technological goals for the proposed activity in LAVA, are:
• demonstration of the MSG-SEVIRI data processing technologies
• broadened use of physical parameters (lava effusion rate or radiant flux) to define
volcanic threat scales, avoiding semi-quantitative information with loose geographic
ties.
• definition of data formats, scales and information content (radiant flux density, radiant
flux or effusion rate) suited to act as input to straightforward modeling of lava flow
emplacement.
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Data are provided with full acquisition, pre-processing, processing, post-processing and
distribution capabilities by means of Facility currently located at the Pole of Vibo Valentia
of the University of Calabria. The input products are the MSG-SEVIRI, 11-channel data
(Visible to Thermal IR, excepting panchromatic), physical parameters for computing
radiant fluxes and effusion rates, petro-physical parameters for the computation of effusion
rates. These data must be provided by the Project Management with suitable advance
before start of operation. The MSG-SEVIRI pixel size over Mt. Etna is ca. 15 sq.km in the
selected observation channels. Pixel footprints are assumed to be constant. The refresh rate
is 15 minutes. Five channels (Visible to TIR, depending on night- or day-time acquisition)
are used for cloud mapping and masking, where appropriate. Three channels (MIR to TIR)
are used for hot-spot detection. Four channels (SWIR to TIR) are accounted for in threeendmember radiant flux (watt), and subsequent effusion rate (m3/s) computation by DualBand or Three-Band methods. The threshold for Hot-Spot detection will be fixed to 1
W/[m2 sr µm] for MIR radiance. For Radiant flux computation, radiance should exceed the
background by at least 1 W/[m2 sr µm] in at least two channels (SWIR-to-TIR). Road tests
have shown that the equation system is solved when radiant flux is ca. 109 or more. The
output products will consist in layers of hot-spots (*SHP, *SHX, *DBF files) detected in
the MIR-TIR channels according to above, with associated attributes table containing, for
each hot-spot: coordinates (MSG pixel, radiant flux (Watts), effusion rate (m3/s). Effusion
rates will be provided for “bulk” lavas, with null porosity/vescicularity. An IDL routine –
running in ENVI™ environment – will be developed for the global monitoring of volcanic
radiant flux and effusion rate (where appropriate) at high-spectral and high-temporal
resolutions. Text file report including: acquisition date and time of satellite data, number of
hot-spots detected, total radiant flux, total effusion rates. Under the direct control of the
Project Management, observations will be run by the Facility on a six-month time span –
or on two or more smaller time span legs – for a typical figure of 18’000 processed images.
The acquisition/ processing/post-processing/delivery policy includes the real-time
transmission of the above “Output products” to the Project Management, upon conclusion
of each processing day (stack of 96 “Output products” every 24 hours). During the project,
operations will be triggerable at any time with a one-week advance notice and stoppable at
any time with a one-day advance notice. A one-week demonstration of emergency
operation – with delivery upon conclusion of each acquisition and processing cycle (15minute refresh) – will be performed during the final 6 months of the project, with advance
notice by the Project Management (larger or equal to 24 hours). The communications
between the Project Management and the Facility will be Internet-based. Having account
for the small size of vector/text output products (a few kilobytes at most), the possibility of
wireless dispatch of results over the telephone network will be demonstrated, aimed to
overcome delivery delays due to physical network failure in case of major events.
Team 01C – Marco Neri
WP 4.2 Medium term probability map for the opening of eruptive fractures
The aim of this team is the definition of the probability of the opening of eruptive
fractures, in the short to mid term in geological point view (from decades to centuries), in
function of data derived from ground surveys and satellite observation systems. Central
stratovolcanoes like Mount Etna are characterized by summit and flank eruptions. Summit
eruptions are the consequence of the ascent of magma from a central reservoir through the
summit conduit. Flank eruptions are commonly characterized by multiple aligned vents
that radiate from the summit of the volcano. Most of the observed flank eruptions at Etna
originate from the summit conduit: here magma rises, often feeding summit eruptions, and
subsequently propagates laterally and downslope, feeding radial fissures. A few flank
eruptions, however, are triggered by intrusions that are not fed through the summit conduit,
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Project V3 – Lava
but they are possibly directly fed by the reservoir beneath the volcano and are here named
“eccentric” eruptions. A complete revision of the location and dynamics of opening of all
recent eruptive vents, united with a study of the statistical distribution of all known
eruptive and dry fractures, faults and dikes exposed in the Valle del Bove, will permit to
construct a map of the probability of new vents opening in a given location. This study will
consist of two main phases: the first will be dedicated to the acquisition of field data,
which will be compared to data from the published literature. This phase will include:
a) Georeferenced mapping of outcropping and buried eruptive fractures of the past
~1000 years. Where possible, the sense of propagation of the eruptive fractures will
be determined, along with all volcanological, structural and geochemical
parameters useful for a definition of the character of each analyzed fissure system.
b) Georeferenced mapping of the dikes cropping out in the Valle del Bove, most
ranging in age from ~100 ka to present, and with particular attention to those dikes
that can be attributed to the Ellittico volcano. This is in fact a volcanic edifice
whose feeder system strongly resembles that of the presently active volcano, and its
study may furnish important information concerning the internal structure of the
present edifice, as well as the modalities of magma transfer from the central conduit
toward the periphery.
c) Georeferenced mapping of the main tectonic structures that can (1) be potentially
used as pathways for intruding magma and (2) influence the superficial stress field
of the volcano. It is in fact known, that some tectonic structures can be intersected
by the propagation of a magmatic dike, facilitating its migration toward the surface
(such as in 1928, when the distal portion of the intrusion followed the fault planes
outcropping at the Ripe della Naca). In other cases, the movement of the flank can
induce the opening of fractures in the summit area, which, if they intersect the
central conduit, determine the draining of magma in a mechanism described as
“passive” in the literature, i.e., not determined simply by magmatic overpressure
but rather by an external mechanical factor (such as the 2004-2005 eruption).
The second phase will be dedicated to the organization of the assembled data, for
comparison with data available from other disciplines, and to their elaboration, aiming at
the construction of the final map showing the probability of opening of eruptive fractrues.
In particular, this second phase will consist of:
a) Comparison of field and satellite data (in particolar InSAR), to evacuate the
extent of volcano-tectonic structures and variations in the related deformation in
time.
b) Creation of a map synthetizing the density of eruptive fracturation, and
comparison with other typologies of data.
c) Construction of an interpretative model on the movement of magma within the
volcanic edifice.
d) Application of the model for the construction of a probability map for the
opening of eruptive fractures.
Team 01D - Harry Pinkerton
WP 2.1 Physical and chemical parameterization of flow behaviour
WP 2.2 Development of thermal and fluid-dynamical models of lava flows
This proposal is submitted in parallel with another proposal to NERC in the UK and is
designed to provide additional support for work on Etna lava flows. The two problems we
wish to address in this proposal complement the work of others on this project, and they
are designed to provide additional data for improved flow modelling.
1. Lava rheological properties on eruption and changes downflow:
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Rheological properties used in lava flow models are generally based on
measurements on aphyric, avesicular melts with first-order approximations for the
growth and consequent effects of crystals. However, most lavas are both crystalline
and vesicular, and they contain variable amounts of volatiles, depending on the preeruptive volatile content, ascent rate and residence time of magma in the volcano,
together with patterns of degassing at the vent and from the flow itself. To ensure
that appropriate rheological properties are used in flow models, in situ rheological
measurements along the flow are required. These should then be used to validate
methods of calculating bulk rheological properties from melt chemistry, volatile
content, temperature, crystallinity and vesicularity. It is also important to determine
the critical crystallinity beyond which magma can no longer flow. This parameter is
vital for rheological calculations, but has yet to be robustly measured for any lava.
The relative effects of cooling and degassing-induced undercooling on rheological
changes of lava during future eruptions of Etna will be investigated using a
combination of direct rheological and thermal measurements, and volatile loss
studies of lava at different distances from the vent. This will be used to suggest how
the current flow model may be modified.
2. Complications arising during the development of flow fields:
While existing lava flow models effectively model the emplacement of simple lava
flows, lavas that erupt for more than a few days on Etna have the potential to
develop lava tubes and ephemeral vents. The resulting tube-fed lava generally
travels significantly further than it would if it had continued to cool in a fully
developed channel. Consequently, the most hazardous eruptions are also the most
difficult to model realistically because critical processes such as flow inflation,
ephemeral vent formation and the important transition from channelled flows to
tube-fed flows cannot currently be simulated. An evaluation of the factors
controlling the formation of lava tubes, ephemeral vents and other non-linear
changes in the flow regime of mature lava flow fields will be undertaken during
future effusive eruptions of Etna. Our preliminary analysis suggest that significant
changes in flow behaviour take place as a consequence of changes in vent effusion
rate, and that there is potential for quantification of these processes for
incorporation into flow models.
Team 01E – Danilo Reitano
WP 1.1 Development of internal and public Web portal
WP 4.1 Database in GIS architecture
Multidisciplinary data analysis can help researchers and technologists to evaluate the
correct hazard during volcanic and/or seismic events. New software solutions and available
data processing can perform useful relationship between related patterns. Our goal is the
design and the development of a Web-GIS base infrastructure able to disseminate different
kind of data, when requested. A user-friendly web interface will be realized, able to
guarantee also different access levels and data representations. The web infrastructure, so
designed, will be available to the project members and could be useful to present results
outside for scientific requests. Moreover, inside COMETA project (PON 2006,
www.consorzio-cometa.it) one of the main aims is the capability to use massive calculation
and very large amount of storage space. So the design of plant regarding database, storage,
Web/GIS interface is well included inside the project. Also simulations of lava flow paths
will be verified inside the GRID statement.
The work, carried out in co-operation with Project V4-Flank, will be divided into 5
different steps:
1. Design and development of the complete database infrastructure.
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2. Implementation of an inventory with data and metadata coming from different research
fields.
3. Design of the necessary layers and custom software that processes data and presents
them into a GIS interface.
4. Realization of a Storage Area Network to guarantee redundancy and robustness.
5. Tests.
Team 01F – Alexis Herault
WP 2.6 Development of numerical models for lava flow simulations
WP 5.4 Lava flow paths forecasting during an eruption
During the first phase of the project, we will aim at optimizing the MAGFLOW cellular
automata (CA) model (Eulerian approach) for lava flows developed by TecnoLab of
INGV-Catania Section. To furnish a more detailed physical description of emplacement
processes, two approach will be followed. In a first step, the structure of MAGFLOW
model will be modified. In particular, it is possible to introduce a vertical thermal structure
in the flow. To this aim two layers are considered: a lower layer, where the temperature is
homogeneous and an upper layer across which heat is transferred by conduction. At free
surface of the flow, we have heat radiation to the atmosphere. The upper layer is taken to
coincide with the plug, defined as the region where no shear deformation takes place in a
Bingham flow. The cooling mechanism will be controlled by the increase of yield stress,
which produces a thicker plug and makes the heat loss slower. As result of heat loss into
the atmosphere, a crust, defined as the layer which is above the isothermal surface at the
solidus temperature, is gradually formed on the upper surface of the flow. We assume that
a lava tube is formed when such a crust is sufficiently thick to resist the drag the
underlying flow and sustain itself under its own weight. In a second step, a more
sophisticated numerical model, based on Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH)
approach will be integrated in the MAGFLOW. By this model we will able to solve the
equations of motion of a compressible fluid with a Lagrangian approach. Smoothedparticle hydrodynamics (SPH) is a Lagrangian method for modeling heat and mass flows.
Due to its mesh-free nature and the handling of boundaries using SPH nodes, this method
can handle complex splashing and fragmenting free surface flows and the motion of
multiple solid equipment parts relatively easily. In traditional mesh-based methods used in
commercial fluid-flow packages, large mesh deformations are generated by the motion of
the equipment, leading to significant numerical problems. In addition, the tracking of the
free surface is diffusive and inaccurate for the resolutions used. For SPH, materials are
discretized into particles that can move subject to equations of motion arising from the
governing partial differential equations. The particles are moving interpolation points that
carry with them (convect) physical properties and state information, such as the mass of
the fluid that the particle represents, its temperature, momentum, enthalpy, density, and
other properties. The inter-particle forces are calculated by smoothing the information from
nearby particles in a way that ensures that the resultant particle motion is consistent with
the motion of a corresponding real fluid, as determined by the governing equation (e.g., the
Navier-Stokes equations). So, particle-based modelling methods have specific advantages
over traditional grid or mesh-based continuum methods for geophysical problems. These
include highly accurate and non-diffusive prediction of complex free-surface behaviour
including wave motion, fragmentation and splashing; accurate and automatic convection of
material; and the straightforward inclusion of multiscale multi-physics. Of course, the
development of new thermal model that permit a more accurate description of the fluid
state will permit us to model the formation of the crust and, consequently, the formation of
the lava tube.
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Team 01G – Annamaria Vicari
WP 2.3 Development of techniques for hot-spot detection
WP 2.4 Development of techniques for lava effusion rate measurements
In order to perform forecasting simulations of lava flow invasion area in near real time we
will use the MAGFLOW model to predict the evolution of the phenomena during the
ongoing eruptions. By MAGFLOW model, we will be able to estimate the areas exposed to
inundations of lava flows during different kind of eruptions. The application of this fastrunning code will allow multiple run changing the initial and boundary conditions of the
system (i.e.: the vent position, the flux-rate, the rheological properties, etc.). MAGFLOW
permit us, also, to simulate the behavior of a lava flow in presence of barriers. Of course,
the model requires some necessary input data, as for example the effusion rate. This last
parameter is the principal factor controlling final flow dimensions. MAGFLOW model can
take into account the way in which effusion rate changes during an eruption and how this
influences the spread of lava as a function of time. Indeed, lava effusion rates can vary by
orders of magnitude over a matter of hours, and are difficult to determine in-situ. We want
to develop an automatic system that uses near-real-time thermal infrared satellite data
acquired by MODIS, AVHRR and SEVIRI sensors (low spatial/high temporal resolution),
to drive numerical simulations of lava flow paths.
In this context, the Team 01-g will contribute to the project mainly developing and
validating the techniques for real-time detection of hot spots related to volcanic eruptions
and estimation of effusion rate. In particular, in a first step, we plan to improve the multiapproach method (that integrates AVHRR and MODIS data) with information coming
from other sensors, such as Meteosat Second Generation geostationary satellite (MSG).
MSG carries the only remote sensing sensor (SEVIRI) which allows for a 15-minute
observation of Europe, allowing for high temporal resolution analysis and monitoring of
active lava flows. To this aim a preliminary study will be conducted to confirm the
applicability of the SEVIRI sensor as an instrument suitable to be employed in an
operational system of early hot spot detection. For this purpose, an automatic system of hot
spot detection, based on the high temporal frequency of the images acquisition, will be
developed and tested on Etna volcano. The validation of the results will comprise the
promptness of the detections (compared with the common ground based warnings), the
errors of the geo-location and the accuracy of the sizes estimate of the hotspots. The
assessment of the performances of the system will be obtained mainly comparing its results
with those obtainable from higher resolution sun-synchronous sensors data (MODIS and
AVHRR). In a second step, we plan to improve the approach for the estimation of the
effusion rate. Infact, actually, the classic dual-band three method techniques, computing
the heat flux on the base of Pieri and Baloga (1986) approach, was implemented. By this
technique, an estimate of the temperatures of an active lava flow is furnished. In general,
these temperatures estimated are influenced by meteorological conditions, daytime solar
radiation, thermal inertia, elevation and many other parameters. Therefore, it is necessary
to implement robust algorithms able to reduce these external influences for obtaining
accurate effusion rate estimations.
WP 3.4 Probabilistic lava flow simulations for long-term volcanic hazard assessment
WP 3.5 Probabilistic lava flow simulations for short-term volcanic hazard assessment
MAGFLOW models represent the central part of an extensive methodology for the hazard
assessment at Mt. Etna. Hazard assessment can be performed by simulating a number of
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Project V3 – Lava
lava flows from a set of initial data (a record of past eruptions) and with different
parameters of the volcanic system in a meaningful range of variation. A preliminary
zonation is necessary for identifying possible emission regions with the highest probability
of opening. After that, a set of reference values for the parameters of the simulation model
based on the knowledge of past eruptions is estimated. So, MAGFLOW is used to
determine for each emission region the area that can be invaded by lava flows originated
from sample points located in that region. Last step is to assign the probability of lava
invasions to interested region, calculated on the basis of the simulated lava flows.
1st half-year
1. Preliminary database of the features of the lava flow eruptions occurred in the last 4
century. (Team 01A)
2. Structural analysis of eruptive fissures. (Team 01C)
3. Provide preliminary rheological data for flow modelling. (Team 01D)
4. Development of physical –mathematical model to simulate lava flow path. (Team
01F)
5. Development of hot-spot detection algorithm. (Team 01G)
6. Development of effusion rate algorithm. (Team 01G)
7. Database structure, study of different WEB/GIS systems. (Team 01E)
2nd half-year
8. Final database of the features of the lava flow eruptions occurred in the last 4
century. (Team 01A)
9. Library of physical parameter of the lava flow eruptions studied. (Team01A)
10. Structural analysis of the dikes cropping out in Valle del Bove. (Team 01C)
11. Structural analysis of the fault potentially involved in the eruptive activity. (Team
01C)
12. Construction of the probability map for the opening of eruptive fractures. (Team
01C)
13. Provide a report on the factors affecting the formation of tubes and ephemeral vents
on Etna. (Team 01D)
14. Development of a new thermal model to permit the formation of the crust and,
consequently, of lava tubes. (Team 01F)
15. Development of a new thermal model to permit the formation of lava tubes. (Team
01F)
16. Implementation of hot-spot detection algorithm. (Team 01G, Team01B)
17. Implementation of effusion rate algorithm. (Team 01G, Team01B)
18. Implementation of an IDL routine for the global monitoring of volcanic radiant flux
and effusion rate ((Team 01G, Team 01B).
19. Site realization. (Team 01E)
20. Database integration. (Team 01E)
1st half-year
1. Validation of the lava flow simulations by adopting the parameter settings that best
simulate the nearest historical lava flows. (Team 01A)
215
2. Construction of maps synthetizing the assembled data and their comparison with
available satellite geodetic data. (Team 01C)
3. Provide robust rheological data for Etna lavas. (Team 01D)
4. Implementation of a near-real-time system that is able to produce essential
information (i.e. effusion rate, hot spot detection) as input data of MAGFLOW.
(Team 01G)
5. Implementation of physical –mathematical model to simulate lava flow path.
(Team 01F)
6. Data representations, web interfaces, GIS. (Team 01E)
2st half-year
7. Detailed assessment of the conditions under which the flow regime changes from
the emplacement of a single channel-fed lava flow to more complex flow regimes.
(Team 01D)
8. Structural analysis of the fault potentially involved in the eruptive activity. (Team
01C)
9. Implementation of the thermal model to permit the formation of the crust (Team
01F).
10. Implementation of a near-real-time system that is able to produce near-real-time
scenario forecast. (Team 01G)
11. Compiling of a probabilistic hazard maps of lava flow. (Team 01A)
12. Development of procedures to transfer the results to DPC. (RU-01)
13. Text file report including: acquisition date and time of satellite data, number of hotspots detected, total radiant flux, total effusion rates (Team 01B).
14. Test sites. (Team 01E)
15. Final documentations; manuals. (Team 01E)
Detailed Financial Request (in Euro) for each Team
First Phase
Team
Spese
personal
e
Coord.
TM-01A
TM-01B
TM-01C
TM-01D
TM-01E
TM-01F
TM-01G
Total
Spese
missioni
7000
7000
Costi
amminist
rativi
1000
4000
2000
6000
6000
32000
1000
Spese per
studi e
ricerche
Spese
servizi
5000
10000
1000
8000
20000
20000
64000
Materiale
durevole e
consumo
Spese
indirette
6000
2000
2000
1800
2000
5200
3000
3000
21000
1200
3000
800
1000
1000
11000
Totale
10000
20000
10000
8000
13000
8000
30000
30000
129000
Second Phase
Team
Coord.
TM-01A
TM-01B
TM-01C
TM-01D
216
Spese
personal
e
Spese
missioni
7000
7000
4000
Costi
amminist
rativi
1000
Spese per
studi e
ricerche
5000
10000
1000
8000
Spese
servizi
Materiale
durevole e
consumo
Spese
indirette
6000
2000
2000
1800
2000
1200
3000
Totale
10000
20000
10000
8000
13000
Project V3 – Lava
TM-01E
TM-01F
TM-01G
Total
6000
6000
30000
1000
8000
20000
20000
72000
3000
3000
15800
1000
1000
10200
8000
30000
30000
129000
Financial Request (in Euro) for the whole RU
First Phase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
000000
32000
1000
64000
21000
11000
Totale
129000
Second Phase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
30000
0,00
1000
72000
0,00
0,00
15800
0,00
10200
0,00
Totale
129000
Total
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
62000
2000
0,00
217
136000
0,00
0,00
36800
0,00
21200
0,00
Totale
258000
Ciro Del Negro - Senior researcher. Head of the Gravity and Magnetism Division.
Scientific interests: Multidisciplinary modelling of mass dynamic processes occurring at
different time scales via integrated analysis and joint inversion of gravimetric, magnetic
and deformation data. Numerical modelling of interactions between eruptions and
earthquakes in heterogeneous media; Numerical simulations of the spatial and temporal
evolution of eruptive phenomena for hazard assessment. Publications: over 35 in
International Journals and editor of the AGU book titled "Etna Volcano Laboratory".
Most relevant publications of RU
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
218
Ball M., Pinkerton H. and Harris A., (2008) Surface cooling, advection and the
development of different surface textures on active lavas on Kilauea, Hawai'i J
Volcanol Geotherm Res (in press)
Behncke, B. Neri M. and Nagay, A. (2005), Lava flow hazard at Mount Etna (Italy):
New data from a GIS-based study, in Manga, M., and Ventura, G., eds., Kinematics
and dynamics of lava flows: Geol. Soc. Am. Spec. Pap. 396, 187-205, doi:
10.1130/2005.2396(13).
Branca S., Coltelli M., Groppelli G. (2004) Geological evolution of Etna volcano. In:
“Etna Volcano Laboratory” Bonaccorso, Calvari, Coltelli, Del Negro, Falsaperla
(Eds), AGU (Geophysical monograph series) 143, pp 49-63.
Calvari S., M. Coltelli, M. Neri, M. Pompilio, and V. Scribano (1994), The 1991-1993
Etna eruption: chronology and lava flow-field evolution, acta vulcanologica, 4, 1-14.
Del Carlo P., Vezzoli L., Coltelli M., (2004). Last 100 ka Tephrostratigraphic Record
of Mount Etna, AGU Geophysical Monograph 143 "Mt. Etna Volcano Laboratory",
pp. 77-89
Del Negro, C., Fortuna, L., Vicari, A., (2004). Modelling lava flows by Cellular
Nonlinear Networks (CNN): preliminary results. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics,
11: 1–9.
Del Negro, C., Fortuna, L., Herault, A., Vicari, A. (2007). Simulations of the 2004
lava flow at Etna volcano by the MAGFLOW Cellular Automata model, Bull.
Volcanol., DOI 10.1007/s00445-007-0168-8.
Herault, A., Vicari, A., Ciraudo, A., and Del Negro, C. (2007). Forecasting Lava Flow
Hazard During the 2006 Etna Eruption: Using the Magflow Cellular Automata Model,
Computer & Geosciences (in press).
Hirn B.R., Di Bartola C., Laneve G., Cadau E. and F. Ferrucci (2008). SEVIRI
onboard Meteosat Second Generation, and the Quantitative Monitoring of Effusive
Volcanoes in Europe and Africa. IEEE – IGARSS, Boston (USA), July 2008
(submitted).
Project V3 – Lava
10. Vicari, A., Currenti, G., Del Negro, C., Fortuna, L., Herault, A., Napoli, R., Rizzo, A.,
(2005). Simulations of lava flows at Mt Etna using paradigms of parallel computing.
Nonlinear Phenomena in Complex Systems, 8:1, 84 – 88.
11. Vicari, A., Herault, A., Del Negro, C., Coltelli, M., Marsella, M., Proietti, C. (2007).
Modelling of the 2001 Lava Flow at Etna Volcano by a Cellular Automata Approach,
Environmental Modelling & Software, 22, 1465-1471.
12. Vicari, A., Ciraudo, A., Del Negro, C., Fortuna, L. (2007). Lava flow simulations
using effusion rates from thermal infrared satellite imagery during the 2006 Etna
eruption, Natural Hazard, (in press).
219
Project V3 - LAVA
RU V3/02
Scientific Responsible: Stefano Gresta, Full Professor, Università di Catania,
Dipartimento di Scienze Geologiche, Corso Italia 57, 95129 Catania, email:
[email protected], tel. 0957195709; cell: 3336170520.
RU Composition:
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Stefano Gresta
Full Professor
Univ. Catania
Man/Months 1st
phase
6
Man/Months 1st
phase
Renato Cristofolini
Full Professor
Univ. Catania
3
Distefano Giovanni
Researcher
Univ. Catania
3
Carmelo Ferlito
Researcher
Univ. Catania
3
Sebastiano Imposa
Researcher
Univ. Catania
3
Marco Viccaro
Researcher
Univ. Catania
3
Andrea Cannata
PhD student
Univ. Catania
5
Warner Marzocchi
Director of Res.
INGV-Roma
1
Jacopo Selva
Researcher
INGV-BO
1
Laura Sandri
Researcher
INGV-BO
4*
Luigi Passarelli
PhD student
INGV-BO
2
Rocco Favara
Director of Res.
INGV-PA
1
Antonio Paonita
Senior Researcher
INGV-PA
1
Marco Liuzzo
Technologist
INGV-PA
1
Alparone Salvatore°
Technologist
INGV-CT
1
Andronico Daniele°
Researcher
INGV-CT
1
Bonforte Alessandro°
Researcher
INGV-CT
0
Caltabiano Tommaso° Senior Technologist INGV-CT
1
Cocina Ornella°
Researcher
INGV-CT
1
Corsaro Rosanna°
Researcher
INGV-CT
1
Gambino Salvatore°
Technologist
INGV-CT
0
Rosalba Napoli°
Researcher
INGV-CT
0
Greco Filippo°
Technologist
INGV-CT
0
Palano Mimmo°
Researcher
INGV-CT
0
Participants
Position
Institution
Man/Months 2nd
phase
6
Man/Months 2nd
phase
3
3
3
3
3
5
1
4
4*
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
°Expert by INGV-Catania participating to the retrospective data analysis and weighted
expert opinions for application of BET. They are, in the order experts in: seismo-volcanic
events, volcanology, GPS, SO2 by plume, tectonic earthquakes, petrology, tilt,
electromagnetic signals, gravimetry, InSAR.
TASK 4 - Vent Opening Probability Map
A reliable lava flow hazard assessment of Etna volcano may require a probabilistic
estimation of the vent location. The goal of this RU is to provide a probabilistic assessment
of vent location mainly based on seismological (earthquakes and tremor) and
volcanological data, integrated with other geophysical and geochemical data, in co220
Project V3 – Lava
operation with expert researchers by INGV (Roma, Bologna, Catania and Palermo). We
tackle this problem through a Bayesian statistical procedure that accounts for any kind of
available information in a rationale and structured manner, providing a formal estimation
of uncertainties. We deal with both long-term and short-term hazard assessment. For the
long-term, we start from a prior model that considers the present tectonic and volcanic
structure of the Etna volcano; in a second step we include through a likelihood distribution
the information about past vent and fracture locations, considering their variation through
time, and their relationship with the structural setting of the volcano; the final product of
such analyses consists of a posteriori probability map for next vent opening. The shortterm vent opening hazard assessment will be estimated during an unrest phase and it
includes geophysical, geochemical and volcanological parameters collect at Mount Etna
during 1996-2004. This RU will perform a retrospective analysis in order to define the
probability of opening eruptive vent(s) for some of the eruptions occurred in the above
time span. In this case, the basic map will updated accounting for the location, intensity
and parameters of earthquakes, the location and features of tremor, the evolution of erupted
magmas, the activity of structural trends. Such “parameters” are assumed to give insights
about the “future” vent of the lava flow. First, we will analize, and then integrate results by
the disciplines reported above, with expert opinions coming from other disciplines (by
INGV Catania and Palermo), in a fully probabilistic scheme for hazard assessment, named
BET. In a nutshell, BET is a probabilistic model to calculate and to visualize the
probability of any possible volcano-related event, by merging all of the available
information, such as theoretical models, a priori beliefs, expert opinions, monitoring
observations.
1st half-year
1. Basic hazard map
2. Comparison of some hazard maps considering different time spans of the “life” of the
volcano.
2nd half-year
3. First dynamic maps (two or three past eruptive scenarios)
1st half-year
1. Other dynamic maps (further past eruptive scenarios)
2. Test on the different weights for parameters and expert opinions.
2nd half-year
3. Validation (if any) of the BET at Etna volcano.
221
First Phase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
10000
0,00
23000
0,00
2000
0,00
10000
0,00
5000
0,00
Totale
0,00
450000
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Second Phase
Categoria di spesa
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
10000
0,00
23000
0,00
2000
0,00
10000
0,00
0,00
0,00
5000
45
50000
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
Totale
Total
Categoria di spesa
0,00
20000
0,00
46000
0,00
222
Project V3 – Lava
4000
0,00
20000
0,00
Totale
0,00
10000
96,00
10000000
0,00
• An amount of 20000 euros per year will support the fees (points 2, 5 and 6) of the people
by INGV participating to the RU
Stefano Gresta: born in Senigallia (Italy) on 09.19.1956.
1980: Graduate in Physics Sciences at University of Bologna.
1982 - 1984: researcher at Istituto Internazionale di Vulcanologia (CNR - Catania).
1984 - 1987: researcher at University of Catania.
1987 - 2006: Associate Professor of Seismology at University of Catania.
Since 2006: Full Professor of Seismology at University of Catania.
Since 1987: responsible for several research projects by MURST-MIUR, CNR, INGVDPC. His research activity is carried out in the fields of volcano physics, seismology and
tectonophysics.
Gresta S., Ripepe M., Marchetti E., D'Amico S., Coltelli M., Harris A.J.L. and Privitera E.,
2004. Seismoacoustic measurements during the July-August 2001 eruption at Mt. Etna
volcano, Italy. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 137, 219-230.
Monaco C., Catalano S., Cocina O., De Guidi G., Ferlito C., Gresta S., Musumeci C. and
Tortorici L., 2005. Tectonic control on the eruptive dynamics at Mt. Etna volcano
(eastern Sicily) during the 2001 and 2002-2003 eruptions. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res.,
144, 211-233.
Gresta S., Ghisetti F., Privitera E. and Bonanno A., 2005. Coupling of eruptions and
earthquakes at Mt Etna (Sicily, Italy): a case study from the 1981 and 2001 events.
Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, doi:10.1029/2004GL021479.
Alparone S., Cannata A. and Gresta S., 2007. Time variation of spectral and wavefield
features of volcanic tremor at Mt. Etna (January-June 1999). J. Volcanol. Geotherm.
Res., 161, 318-332.
Palano M., Puglisi G. and Gresta S., 2008. Ground deformation patterns at Mt. Etna from
1993 to 2000 from joint use of InSAR and GPS techniques. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res.,
169, 99-120.
223
Project V3 - LAVA
RU V3/03
Scientific Responsible: Gino Mirocle Crisci, Full Professor, Department of Earth
Sciences, University of Calabria, Ponte Pietro Bucci, 87036 Arcavacata di Rende
(CS),email: [email protected], tel. +39.0984.496828, fax:+39.0984493601.
RU Composition:
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
CRISCI Gino Mirocle
Full Professor
UNICAL
Participants
Position
Institution
DI GREGORIO
Salvatore
RONGO Rocco
SPATARO William
D’AMBROSIO Donato
NERI Marco
BEHNCKE Boris
AVOLIO Maria Vittoria
LUPIANO Valeria
NICEFORO Giancarlo
Full Professor
UNICAL
Researcher
Researcher
Researcher
Researcher
Research Fellow
Research Fellow
Research Fellow
Collaborator
UNICAL
UNICAL
UNICAL
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
UNICAL
UNICAL
UNICAL
Man/Months 1st
phase
1
Man/Months 2nd
phase
1
Man/Months 1st
phase
1
Man/Months 2nd
phase
1
2
2
2
0
0
6
6
3
2
2
2
0
0
6
6
3
Task 3 - Lava Flow Invasion Hazard Map
Task 5 - Scenario Forecast and Hazard Mitigation
WP 5.5 Lava flow simulations including diversion barriers during an eruption
Objectives and Results
• Following the tasks already carried out in the previous INGV-DPC project, in order
to verify the goodness and reliability of the obtained maps, a validation technique
will be individuated and applied.
• Relative to a limited and well defined elevated urbanized area, several GIS oriented
applications will be implemented:
o Individuation of emission areas that can generate threatening lava flows for
a particular zone (e.g. inhabited zones, roads, hospitals, power plants, etc).
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Project V3 – Lava
o For real-time forecasting, once that an emission point(s) has been
individuated, the maximum invasion covered area can be immediately
obtained. Moreover, different degrees of invasion probabilities will permit
to individuate more critical areas.
1. GIS start-up implementation;
2. Definition of techniques for hazard map validation.
3. GIS Full implementation.
First Phase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
5000
0,00
8000
0,00
0,00
5000
0,00
2000
0,00
Totale
20000
Second Phase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
2) Spese per missionI
5000
0,00
8000
0,00
0,00
5000
0,00
2000
0,00
Totale
20000
225
Total
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
10000
0,00
16000
0,00
0,00
10000
0,00
4000
0,00
Totale
40000
Gino Mirocle Crisci Date of birth: December, 21st , 1949. Nationality: Italian
Languages: Italian, English.
Actual position: Full Professor in Petrology and Petrography at University of Calabria,
Department of Earth Sciences. Science Faculty Head of University of Calabria.
The research activity of the Scientific responsible is aimed both in geo-chemical and
petrographical studies of magmatic rocks and in applied studies that tackle punctual
problematics. The goal of the magmamatological studies has been the development of a
model to explain the presence of a broad compositional spectrum in recent emitted
magmas in the Central-South Thyrrenian Sea and Sicily channel area. The applicative part
can be synthesized in: 1) Studies on the application of Cellular Automata regarding the
Earth Sciences (lava flows). 2) Archeometric studies with geo-chemical and petrographic
investigation of archeological findings and of an analytical method for the determination of
the origin of archeological obsidians.
Most relevant publications of RU
D’Ambrosio, D., Rongo, R., Spataro, W., Avolio, M.V. and Lupiano, V., 2006. Lava
Invasion Susceptibility Hazard Mapping Through Cellular Automata. Lectures Notes in
Computer Sciences, 4173(S. El Yacoubi, B. Chopard, and S. Bandini (Eds.): ACRI
2006.): 452-461.
D’Ambrosio, D., Spataro, W., Di Gregorio, S., Crisci, G.M. and Rongo, R., 2005. Parallel
genetic Algorithms for calibrating Cellular Automata Models: Application to lava flows.
Il Nuovo Cimento, 28(C-2 Special issue on High Performance Computing): 115.127.
Crisci, G.M., DiGregorio, S., Rongo, R. and Spataro, W., 2004. The Simulation model
SCIARA: The 1991 and 2001 Lava Flows at Mount Etna. Journal of Volcanology and
Geothermal Research, 132(2-3): 253-267.
Barca, D., Crisci, G.M., DiGregorio, S., Rongo, R. and Spataro, W., 2004. Application of
the Cellular Automata Model SCIARA to the 2001 Mount Etna Crisis. In: S.C. A.
Bonaccorso, M.Coltelli, C. Del Negro, S. Falsaperla (Editor), Etna Volcano Laboratory.
American Geophysical Union,, Washington. D.C., pp. 343-356.
226
Project V3 – Lava
Crisci, G.M. et al., 2003. Revisiting the 1669 Etnean eruptive crisis using a cellular
automata model and implications for volcanic hazard in the Catania area. Journal of
Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 123(1-2): 211-230.
227
Project V3 - LAVA
RU V3/04
Scientific Responsible: Massimiliano Favalli, Senior Researcher, Istituto Nazionale di
Geofisica e Vulcanologia-Sezione di Pisa, Via della Faggiola, 32 - 56126 Pisa, email:
[email protected], tel: 050 8311946, fax: 050 8311942
RU Composition:
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
Man/Months
2nd phase
3
INGV-PI
Man/Months 1st
phase
1
Man/Months
2nd phase
1
INGV-PI
1
1
INGV-PI
University of
Hawaii
INGV-CT
INGV-PI
INGV-PI
6
0
6
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Massimiliano Favalli
Senior
Researcher
INGV-PI
Participants
Position
Institution
Maria Teresa
Pareschi
Francesco
Mazzarini
Simone Tarquini
Andrew JL Harris
Director of
Research
Researcher
Technologist
Associate
Professor
Researcher
Technologist
Fellow
Marco Neri
Ilaria Isola
Alessandro
Fornaciai
TASK 2 - Numerical Simulations and Satellite Techniques
WP: 2.5 Development of techniques for intra-event rapid DEM mapping. It is well know
that topographic features, including pre-existing channels and other lava morphologies,
modify lava flow path together with mass eruption rates and lava rheological properties.
Tecniques based on LiDAR data will be developed for intra-event rapid DEM mapping
minimizing errors at local and global scale. Reconstruction and estimation of errors on past
topographies and volumes will be performed. We will investigate the possibility to use the
same tecnique to evaluate erupted lava volumes from LiDAR frames collected at short
intervals, potentially allowing extimation of mass eruption rates.
TASK 3 - Lava Flow Invasion Hazard Map
WP: 3.4, 3.5, 3.6 – DOWNFLOW code accounts of the behavior of lava fields on Etna in
an very effective way: in a few minutes computational times it is possible to simulate
probabilistic areas exposed to lava invasion, with most exposed areas fitting very well the
in-filled effective ones. It is based on an evolution of the steepest descent path criterion,
which is applied thousands of times to a randomly perturbed topography to simulate the
real behavior of Etnean lava flow fields. We want to extend and refine the existing
simulation database by considering computational vent distribution with some tens of
meters resolution. This database can be used to produce, in short times, hazard maps as a
function of different vent opening probability distributions and lava flow lengths or
228
Project V3 – Lava
effusion rates. The database can also be used to produce maps reporting, for each point, the
channelling/spreading index for a lava flow venting from that point (i.e. predictability of
the lava path) and maps reporting, for each point, the impact produced by a lava flow
venting from that point. All the above maps are valid as long as no significative
topographical changes occur.
1st half-year
1. Techniques for intra-event rapid DEM mapping based on LiDAR technologies .
2. Hazard maps by lava flow using DOWNFLOW .
2nd half-year
3. Maps indicating, at each point, the expected impact produced by a flow venting from
that point.
4. Lava flow catchment area and maps as in the previous points 3 for given target areas.
1st half-year
1. Error estimations on lava volumes and changing topographies in LiDAR.
2nd half-year
2. Maps indicating, at each point, the channelling/spreading index for a lava flow
venting from that point (i.e. predictability of the lava path).
3. Password protected web publishing of all produced data using Google Earth
freeware technology.
First Phase
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
1800
0,00
2200
0,00
10000
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
4000
0,00
2000
0,00
20000
0,
Totale
0,00
229
Second Phase
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
1800
0,00
2200
0,00
10000
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
4000
0,00
2000
0,00
0,00
20000
,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
3600
0,00
4400
0,00
20000
0,00
Totale
Total
Categoria di spesa
0,00
8000
0,00
4000
0,00
Totale
40000
0,
Massimiliano Favalli Date of birth: 1 June 1967
Nationality: Italian
Education: 2000: B.Sc. (full marks cum laude) in Physics, Universita’ degli Studi di Pisa,
Pisa (Italy). Thesis on Numerical study of mesoscale circulation and atmospheric
dispersion of a volcanic plume. The case of Mt. Etna.
07/2005-present: associate researcher at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia,
Sezione di Pisa (INGV-PI).
07/2004-06/2005: researcher at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione
di Pisa (INGV-PI).
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Project V3 – Lava
08/2001-06/2004: researcher at Centro Studi di Geologia Strutturale e Dinamica
dell’Appennino (conveyed into Istituto di Geoscienze e Georisore since January 2002),
Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (Italy).
Research experience: numerical simulations on volcano-related phenomena: mesoscale
atmospheric circulation, atmospheric dispersion, debris flows, floods, lava flows, tsunamis.
Favalli M. and M.T. Pareschi, 2004, Digital elevation model reconstruction preserving
surface
morphological
structures,
J.
Geophys.
Res.,
109,
F04004,
doi:10.1029/2004JF000150.
Favalli M., M. T. Pareschi, A. Neri, I. Isola (2005), Forecasting lava flow paths by a
stochastic approach, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L03305, doi:10.1029/2004GL021718.
Favalli M., G.D. Chirico, P. Papale, M.T. Pareschi, M. Coltelli, N. Lucaya, and E. Boschi
(2006), Computer simulations of lava flow paths in the town of Goma, Nyiragongo
volcano, Democratic Republic of Congo, J. Geophys. Res., 111, B06202,
doi:10.1029/2004JB003527.
Harris A., M. Favalli, F. Mazzarini, M.T. Pareschi (2007). Best-fit results from application
of a thermo-rheological model for channelized lava flow to high spatial resolution
morphological data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L01301, doi: 10.1029/2006GL028126.
Mazzarini F., M. T. Pareschi, M. Favalli, I. Isola, S. Tarquini, E. Boschi (2005),
Morphology of basaltic lava channels during the Mt. Etna September 2004 eruption from
airborne
laser
altimeter
data,
Geophys.
Res.
Lett.,
32,
L04305,
doi:10.1029/2004GL021815.
231
Project V3 - LAVA
RU V3/05
Scientific Responsible: Fortuna Luigi, Full Professor, Dipartimento di Ingegneria
Elettrica, Elettronica e dei Sistemi, Facoltà di Ingegneria, Università di Catania, Viale A.
Doria 6, 95125 Catania, email: [email protected], tel: 095 738 2307, fax: 095 330793
RU Composition:
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Fortuna Luigi
Full Professor
University of Catania
Participants
Position
Institution
Frasca Mattia
Research
Fellow
Researcher
University of
Catania
University of
Catania
University of
Catania
University of
Catania
Caponnetto
Riccardo
Buscarino Arturo
Bucolo Maide
Research
Fellow
Researcher
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
Man/Months 2nd
phase
3
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
Man/Months 2nd
phase
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Task 2 - Numerical Simulations and Satellite Techniques
Modern graphics processing units (GPUs) contain hundreds of arithmetic units and can be
harnessed to provide tremendous acceleration for many numerically intensive scientific
applications. The increased flexibility of the most recent generation of GPU hardware
combined with high level GPU programming languages have unlocked this computational
power and made it much more accessible to computational scientists. The key to effective
utilization of GPUs for scientific computing is the design and implementation of efficient
data-parallel algorithms that can scale to hundreds of tightly coupled processing units.
Many particle modeling applications (as for example SPH model) are well suited to GPUs,
due to their extensive computational requirements, and because they lend themselves to
parallel processing implementations. The use of multiple GPUs can bring even more
computational power to bear on highly parallelizable computational problems. We propose
to apply this kind of data-parallel algorithm to the models developed by UR_DelNegro and
UR_Russo.
In order to perform forecasting simulations of lava flow invasion area in near real time
MAGFLOW model developed by UR_DelNegro will be used. The model needs of some
input such us a digital representation of the topography over which the lava is to be
emplaced, the location of the eruptive vent, knowledge of the relationships of viscosity and
yield strength with temperature, and an estimate of the lava effusion rate. The lava effusion
rate is critical point for lava flow simulations, because it is the principal factor controlling
final flow dimensions. It can be highly variable. It can vary by orders of magnitude over a
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Project V3 – Lava
matter of hours, and is difficult to determine in-situ. However, it is possible to estimate
lava effusion rates using thermal infrared satellite imagery obtained from low spatial/high
temporal resolution remote sensing data (e.g. MODIS, AVHRR). During the previous
DPC-INGV volcanological project a digital image processing tools that uses near-real-time
thermal infrared satellite data acquired by MODIS and AVHRR sensors has been
successfully experimented on Etna volcano. In this context, the Research Unit will
contribute to the project mainly developing and validating the techniques for real-time
detection of hot spots related to volcanic eruptions and estimation of effusion rate. In
particular, in a first step, we plan to improve the multi-approach method (that integrates
AVHRR and MODIS data) with information coming from other sensors, such as MSG. In
particular, MSG provides images every fifteen minutes and allows for high temporal
resolution analysis and monitoring of active lava flows. In a second step, we plan to
improve the approach for the estimation of the effusion rate. Infact, actually, the classic
dual-band three method techniques, computing the heat flux on the base of Pieri and
Baloga (1986) approach, was implemented. This method suffers of many limitation, due,
mainly, (i) to the strictly hypothesis with which the effusion rate is computed starting from
the heat flux obtained by satellite data, and (ii) to the atmospheric correction that must be
applied to the measured radiance of the satellite sensor to obtain the corrected radiances
used to compute the heat flux. Moreover, we have to take in mind that when the effusion
rate is estimated from the heat flux, many parameters are fixed a priori, as for example the
emissivity. Its contribution is not negligible: part of the radiation emitted by lavas is
absorbed, reflected and scattered by the atmosphere. If the emissivity is known, the surface
temperature can be retrieved from remotely-sensed spectral data. In this context, the
availability of a new thermal model developed by UR_Dragoni and UR_DelNegro, and
measurement of emissivity carried out by UR_Lombardo, will permit us to better introduce
the thermal structure of the pixel of the image. This is a necessary information to compute
the temperatures of active lava flow from the integrated temperature of the pixel. All the
satellite data will be furnished by UR_Tramutoli and UR_Lombardo.
The complexity in the development of data-parallel algorithm for GPU computation, the
necessity to validate the effusion rate algorithm and the full tool for satellite data, suggest
to involve in the project a new young researcher, to employ full time. For this reasons, we
propose to fund a contract for a young researcher. In this case an amount of money,
corresponding to a contract for a young researcher (19000 Euros for the contract of work,
5000 Euros for other expenses for each phase of the project), will be transferred to the
University of Catania.
1st half-year
1. Development of data-parallel algorithm for GPU computation
2. Development of algorithm for pre-processing of satellite data
2nd half-year
3. Development of algorithms for cloud mask detection.
4. Development of algorithms for hot spot detection.
1st half-year
1. Development of algorithm for effusion rate estimation
233
2. Implementation of automatic system to treat satellite data
2nd half-year
3. Implementation of a GPU cluster for lava flow simulation.
4. Integration of the algorithms developed into DPC interface.
First Phase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
3500
0,00
19000
0,00
0,00
1000
0,00
500
0,00
Totale
0,00
24000
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Second Phase
Categoria di spesa
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
3500
0,00
19000
0,00
0,00
1000
0,00
500
0,00
Totale
0,00
24000
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Total
Categoria di spesa
234
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
7000
0,00
Project V3 – Lava
38000
0,00
0,00
2000
0,00
1000
0,00
Totale
0,00
48000
Foruna Luigi - born in Siracuse on 27/05/1953. He is Full Professor of System Theory
since November 1994 at the University of Catania where he is Dean of the Engineering
Faculty, since November 2005 and is co-ordinator of the Ph.D. Course in Electronic and
Automatic Engineering. He is author of more than 350 scientific publications; among them
seven are books published by international editors: Bio-Inspired Emergent Control of
Locomotion Systems, (World Scientific, 2004), Soft- Computing (Springer 2001),
Nonlinear Non Integer Order Circuits and Systems (World Scientific 2001), Cellular
Neural Networks (Springer 1999) ,Neural Networks in Multidimensional Domains
(Springer 1998), Model Order Reduction in Electrical Engineering (Springer 1994), Robust
Control - An Introduction (Springer 1993). He is author of 10 industrial patents. He is in
charge for a series of contracts with public and private companies (exMURST, CNR,
ENEA, EURATOM, ERG Petroli, ASI, STMicroelectronics, etc). At present he is local coordinator of two EC projects: CLAWAR (Climbing & Walking Robots) and DICTAM. He
is IEEE Fellow, Chairman of the IEEE Committee on CNN an Array Processors and is also
Chairman of the IEEE Central and South Italy Italy CAS Chapter. His scientific interests
include: Robust Control, Nonlinear Science and Complexity, Chaos, Cellular Neural
Networks, Soft-Computing Strategies for Control. Robotics, Micro - Nanosensor and
Smart Devices for Control, Nano-Cellular Neural Networks Modelling. He is the
coordinator of the courses in Electronic Engineering. He is Fellow of the IEEE CAS
Society, IEEE
CASChairman of the CNN Technical
Committee, IEEE CAS
Distinguishing Lectures 2001-2002, IEEE Chairman of the IEEE CAS Chapter CentralSouth ITALY.
Currenti, G., Del Negro, C., Fortuna, L., Napoli, R. and Vicari, A. (2004). “Non-linear
analysis of geomagnetic time series from Etna volcano”, Nonlinear Processes in
Geophysics, 11, 119-125.
Del Negro C., Fortuna L., Vicari A., (2004). Modelling lava flows by Cellular Nonlinear
Networks (CNN): preliminary results. Nonlin. Proc. Geophys, 11: 1–9..
Vicari, A., Currenti, G., Del Negro, C., Fortuna, L., Herault, A., Napoli, R., Rizzo, A.,
(2005). Simulations of lava flows at Mt Etna using paradigms of parallel computing.
Nonlin. Phen. in Comp. Syst., 8:1, 84 – 88.
Arena, P.; Basile, A.; Bucolo, M.; Fortuna, L. “An object oriented segmentation on analog
CNN chip” IEEE Transactions on Circuits and Systems I: Fundamental Theory and
Applications, Vol. 50, No. 7, July 2003, pp. 837 – 846.
Caponetto, R., Fazzino, S., Fortuna, L., Frasca, M., “E^3: An universal emulator for
complex systems”, AIP Proceedings of 8th Experimental Chaos Conference 2004,
Florence, Italy 14-17 June 2004, pp. 301-306.
235
Project V3 - LAVA
RU V3/06
Scientific Responsible: Valerio Lombardo, Researcher, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e
Vulcanologia-Sezione CNT, Via di Vigna Murata 605, Roma, email: [email protected],
tel: 06-51860508, fax: 06-51860507
RU Composition:
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Lombardo Valerio
Researcher
INGV-CNT
Participants
Position
Institution
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
Man/Months 2nd
phase
3
Man/Months 1st
phase
0
0
2
Man/Months 2nd
phase
0
0
2
Spinetti Claudia
Researcher
INGV-CNT
Taddeucci Jacopo Researcher
INGV-RM1
Buongiorno
Director of Res.
INGV-CNT
Fabrizia
Scarlato
Senior
INGV- RM1
0
0
Piergiorgio
Researcher
Colini Laura
Researcher
INGV-CNT
1
3
Amici Stefania
Researcher
INGV-CNT
2*
2*
Silvestri Malvina
Research Fellow
INGV-CNT
0
0
Musacchio
Research Fellow
INGV-CNT
1
1
Massimo
Task 2 - Numerical Simulations and Satellite Techniques
WP 2.1: Basaltic melts emissivity measurements - Concerning the deliverables for thermal
anomalies, important experimental measurements of emissivity for Etnean lava flows have
been carried out. Emissivity is a key parameter in remote sensing thermal analysis. Starting
from the radiance measured by a remote sensor in a given infrared band, it is possible to
evaluate the brightness temperature at the sensor. Generally, this temperature is different
from surface temperature. This is due to different causes: the surface is not a black body,
thus emissivity contribution is not negligible; part of the radiation emitted by lavas is
absorbed, reflected and scattered by the atmosphere. If the emissivity is known, the surface
temperature can be retrieved from remotely-sensed spectral data. Spectral radiance
detected by spaceborne and airborne sensors must be corrected for the effects of solar
reflection and atmospheric contamination of the radiant signal. Multispectral satellite data
recorded in the short wave infrared region of spectrum (SWIR) have been used to estimate
temperature of hot volcanic features such as fumaroles, lava-lakes and lava-flows (Landsat
TM, ETM, ASTER). For analysis of active flows, temperature is an essential parameter to
measure. Modeling the thermal structure of active lava flows allows determining the total
thermal flux and therefore the instantaneous effusion rate of the flow Emissivity spectral
profiles in the short wave infrared region of spectrum (SWIR) have been estimated for
Etnean molten lavas. Emissivity values of molten rocks are lacking in literature. The
236
Project V3 – Lava
Experimental Volcanology Lab of the University of Wuerzburg, Germany, is equipped
with a relatively large rock melting facility equipped with a 20 cm-diameter crucible
inductively heated up to and above magmatic temperature. We load the crucible with 0.3
kg ca. of granulated rock from a basaltic bomb erupted at Etna in 2002 and heat it up to
1250 °C. Then we gradually lower the temperature while acquiring spectra of the melt
surface. A thermo-couple touching the same surface and connected to a data-logger
continuously records melt temperatures (Fig.1). The methodology adopted in this
experiment is based on the use of a field Spectroradiometer (ASD FieldSpec Pro) to
estimate the radiance emitted from basaltic melts at different temperatures in the SWIR.
Post processing of radiance spectra using the radiative transfer code MODTRAN allows to
distinguish between gas absorptions and emissivity features in the spectral profiles.
Preliminary results show that spectral emissivity signature of Etnean molten lavas varies as
a function of temperature and emissivity of molten lava is lower then emissivity of cooler
basalts.
WP 2.2: Lava flow thermal model - High spatial resolution data are essential for producing
detailed lava flow maps. Moreover, hyperspectral instruments, such as the MIVIS sensor,
offer hundreds of measurements in the SWIR-TIR spectral range, which allow for
improved analysis of the sub-pixel lava thermal structures (Oppenheimer et al, 1993c;
Flynn et al., 2000). Preliminary results suggest a complex thermal structure for Etnean lava
flows. This is characterized by a down-flow transition from a lightly crusted active channel
to a more heavily crusted distal zone of dispersed flow, both surrounded by zones of
stagnant cooling flow where exposed molten material is absent and maximum temperatures
are thus lower. Improvement in lava flow thermal model can greatly enhance accuracy of
effusion rate estimations.
WP 2.3 e WP 5.1: Hot-spot detection – Automatic detection of volcanic hot-spot has been
already tested during the activities of the European Project PREVIEW and are
implemented as a pre-operative tool in the ASI-INGV Project ASI-SRV(Sistema Rischio
Vulcanico) starting from January 2007 following the requirements furnished by DPC. The
“Hot-spot detection” automatic procedure is currently using AVHRR data directly
acquired by means of a NOAA/TERASCAN station located at the INGV in Rome. During
the second year of the project will be available a multi-approach which will combine the
information coming from MODIS data. The improvement of the AVHotRR system and the
routine for treatment of MODIS data will be also developed in the frame of ASI-SRV
project.
WP 2.4 e WP 5.3: Effusion rate estimation- Effusion rates were estimated from the heat
flux following the approach of Pieri and Baloga (1986) and as adapted to extract effusion
rates from satellite thermal data by Harris et al. (1997a; 1997b; 1998; 2000). Effusion rates
are already estimated by AVHotRR, an IDL developed program that automatically process
AVHRR data in near real time. As for the “Hot-spot detection” procedure the effusion rate
estimation product is already tested and implemented in the ASI-SRV project. In the
present project the algorithms used in the procedures will be improved by introducing new
experimental measurements of emissivity (WP 2.1) and compared with previous rates
derived by using emissivity of cold basalts. We plan to apply new emissivity results for
deriving effusion rates also from MODIS data. Influence of variation of the emissivity
parameter on effusion rate estimates will be analyzed using AVHRR time-series.
We consider very important to integrate the procedures developed in other projects aimed
to the implementation of operative tools for monitoring volcanic phenomena with the
237
results of scientific activities (WP2.1-WP2.2) which may improve the accuracy of the
algorithms and retrieved values. In particular the use of remote sensing data requires to
know both specific material intrinsic characteristics and the interaction between the solar
radiation and the atmosphere.
WP 2.5: Middle-high resolution DEM generation- Stereo viewing of images has been the
most common method used by the mapping, photogrammetry, and remote sensing
communities for elevation modeling. ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission
and Reflection Radiometer) is an imaging instrument that is flying on Terra, a satellite
launched in December 1999, as part of NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS). ASTER
two near-infrared spectral bands, 3N and 3B, generate along-track stereo image pair with a
base-to-height (B/H) ratio of about 0.6, and an intersection angle of about 27.7 degrees.
This allows for mapping at medium to large scales and for generating digital elevation
model (DEM) from the along-track stereo data. The IDL routine AsterDTM licensed from
RSI, allows for DEM generation using ASTER stereopair. We plan to apply the AsterDTM
routine on the ASTER dataset of Etna to retrieve topographic variation in the period 20012007.
1st half-year
1. Measurements of spectral emissivity of basaltic melts.
2. Hot-spot detection in near real time from AVHRR data (from ASI and FP7
projects).
3. Improvement of Active lava flow effusion rate algorithms from AVHRR data using
new emissivity measurements.
2nd half-year
4. Lava flow thermal model from high spatial resolution airborne data (MIVIS)
1st half-year
1. Hot-spot detection in near real time from MODIS data (from ASI and FP7
projects).
2. Active lava flow effusion rate from MODIS data using new emissivity
measurements.
2nd half-year
3. DEM derived from ASTER.
4. Analysis of emissivity influence on effusion rate estimates.
First Phase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
238
4000
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
Project V3 – Lava
3000
9200
1800
Totale
18000
Second Phase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
4000
12200
1800
Totale
18000
Total
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
8000
3000
21400
3600
Totale
36000
239
Valerio Lombardo Date of birth: 21 December 1969 Nationality: Italian
Education: professional exam in Geology, passed. 1980-1985: B.Sc. (full marks) in
Geological Sciences, Università degli Studi “La Sapienza” di Roma (Italy).
2002-present: researcher at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di
Roma (INGV-CNT).
Research interests: Remote-sensing of active volcanoes. Eruptive processes; lava flows,
fumaroles and lava tubes; rheological analysis of volcanic melts; thermal imagery applied
to volcano monitoring.
Buongiorno M.F., Realmuto V.J., Doumaz F., Recovery of spectral emissivity from
Thermal Infrared Multispectral Scanner (TIMS). Imagery acquired over a mountainous
terrain: a case study from Mount Etna Sicily. January 2002, Remote Sensing of
Environment. Vol 79, pp.123-133, 2002.
Lombardo, V., M.F. Buongiorno (2006). Lava flow thermal analysis using three infrared
bands of remote-sensing imagery: a study case from Mount Etna 2001 eruption. , Remote
Sensing of environment 101/2:141-149.
Lombardo, V., M.F. Buongiorno and S. Amici (2006). Characterization of a volcanic
thermal anomalies by means of sub-pixel temperature distribution analysis: a case from
the 1996 mount Etna eruption using airborne imaging spectrometer data, Bull. Volcanol.
68, 07-08, 641-651; DOI: 10.1007/s00445-005-0037-2.
Lombardo, V., M.F. Buongiorno, D.C. Pieri and L. Merucci (2004). Differences in Landsat
TM derived lava flow thermal structure during summit and flank eruption at Mt. Etna, J.
Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 134, 1-2, 15-34.
Taddeucci J., Pompilio M. & Scarlato P. (2002). Monitoring the explosive activity of the
July-August 2001 eruption of Mt. Etna (Italy) by ash characterization. Geophys. Res.
Lett., 29, 71. doi: 10.1029/2001GL014372.
240
Project V3 – Lava
Project V3 - LAVA
RU V3/07
Scientific Responsible: Marsella Maria, Associate Professor, La Sapienza Università di
Roma, via Eudossiana, 18 - 00184 Roma, Phone +39-0644585098 E-mail:
[email protected]
RU Composition:
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Maria Marsella
Assoc. Prof.
Sapienza University of Roma
Participants
Position
Institution
Silvia Scifoni
Alberico Sonnessa
Ernesto Bernardo
Mauro Coltelli
Cristina Proietti
Quintilio Napoleoni
Collab.
PhD Student
Collab.
Senior Researcher
Post Doc
Ass. Prof.
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
Man/Months
1st phase
2
Man/Months
2nd phase
2
Man/Months
1st phase
6
1
1
0
0
1
Man/Months
2nd phase
6
1
1
0
3
1
Analysis and validation of methods for average effusion rate measurements based
on volumetric approach. Evaluation of results relative to instantaneous effusion rate
measurements using geometrical/volumetric constraint data.
WP 2.5 Development of techniques for intra-event rapid DEM mapping
Analysis of the techniques based on helicopter/airbornel/satellite stereomodel to
extract syneruption DEM: operational constraints, achievable vs required accuracy,
revisiting time and acquisition geometry for satellite sensors, processing time
required, ground measurements requirements.
Ground base topographical techniques with 3D capability to derived geometrical
parameters useful for rapid evaluation of lava flow advancement in case of simple
flow.
TASK 3 - Lava Flow Invasion Hazard Map
WP 3.2 Topographic data quality
Comparative statistical analysis of topographic data extracted by means of different
techniques to evaluate their usefulness for application having different accuracy
requirements. The analysis will include vector and raster maps as well as Digital
elevation model and orthophotos,
TASK 5 - Scenario Forecast and Hazard Mitigation
WP 5.5 Lava flow simulations including diversion barriers during an eruption
definition of the interaction mechanism between the lava flow and the barrier in
order to estimate the active force and establish constraints for barrier project
241
simulation tests on different case studies adopting pre-eruption DEM and sineruption data in order to calibrate the model and evaluate the impact of different
barrier configuration
definition of a tool which, on the basis of the simulation results and DEM updating,
can automatically extract the optimal barrier configuration the relative operational
plan
WP 5.6 Quantitative analysis of a barrier system for selected future eruptive scenarios
Documentation and quantitative analysis of 3 recent historical cases in which lava
flows reached/approached sensible areas
definition of operational project to build barriers in the sensible areas taking into
consideration environmental and operational issues to identify construction
elements, means of conveyance , costs and required times

1st half-year
1. Numerical three-dimensional maps pre and post eruption of the 3 case studies and,
in presence of useful data, reconstruction of the temporal evolution of the lava
flows
2nd half-year
2. Report on the results of the simulation tests obtained using different barrier
configurations
3. Definition of a model for the interaction barrier-flow
1st half-year
1. Quantitative analysis of the effect of different barrier configuration
2nd half-year
2. Operational plan to built up the selected barrier configuration for the 3 test cases
3. Configuration of a software for barrier construction to be interfaced with a geodatabase and the simulation tool
First Phase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
4000
10000
242
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
Project V3 – Lava
1000
Totale
15000
Second Phase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
4000
10000
1000
Totale
15000
Total
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
8000
20000
2000
Totale
30000
Maria Marsella. Degree in Physics (1987, Sapienza University), PhD in Geodesy and
Surveying (1992, Bologna Univ.), Assistant Professor at Engineering Faculty of Sapienza
University (1992-2001), Visiting Scientist (1993-94) at the U.S. Geological Survey,
Associate Professor (since 2001) at Sapienza where she teachs “Surveying” and “Geomatic
Monitoring Methods” at the Civil and Environmental Engineering courses. She conducted
ASI and ESA research projects. Since 1996 she was involved in projects funded by GNV,
INGV and Civil Protection Department dedicated to active volcanic areas monitoring.
Member of AIT (Ital. Ass. for Rem. Sens.) and CERI (Research Center on Geologic
243
Hazards). Her activity is focused on the technique for extracting high resolution digital
maps and terrain models by means of aerial and satellite photogrametry, laser scanning and
remote sensing. She is also involved in project dedicated to deformation monitoring in
presence of natural hazards.
Baldi P., Fabris M., Marsella M., Monticelli R.: (2005) Monitoring the morphological
evolution of the Sciara del Fuoco during the 2002-2003 Stromboli eruption using multitemporal photogrammetry , Journal of International Society of Photogrammetry and
remote Sensing Vol.59/4, pp199-211
Vicari A.; Herault A.; Del Negro C.; Coltelli M; Marsella M; Proietti C. (2007) Modeling
Of The 2001 Lava Flow At Etna Volcano By A Cellular Automata Approach,
Environmental Modelling & Software, 22, 1465-1471,doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.
Coltelli, M., Proietti, C., Branca, S., Marsella, M., Andronico, D., Lodato, L., (2007).
Analysis of the 2001 lava flow eruption of Mt. Etna from 3D mapping, JGR- Earth
Surface, in stampa.
Baldi P., Coltelli M. Fabris, M. Marsella M., Tommasi P (2007) High precision
photogrammetry for monitoring the evolution of Sciara del Fuoco after the2002-2003
Stromboli eruption, Bulletin of Volcanology, in stampa.
Marsella M., Coltelli M., Branca S., Proietti C., Monticelli R. (submitted). 2002-2003 Lava
Flow Eruption Of Stromboli: A Contribution To Understanding Lava Discharge
Mechanism Using Periodic Digital Photogrammetry Surveys, “Learning from Stromboli
and its 2002-03 eruptive crisis”. AGU Geophysical Monograph volume, Editors: S.
Calvari, S. Inguaggiato, G. Puglisi, M. Ripepe, M. Rosi
244
Project V3 – Lava
Project V3 - LAVA
RU V3/08
Scientific Responsible: Giovanni Russo, Professor, Director of the Marcello Anile Center
for Mathematics and its Applications, University of Catania.
Mailing address: Dipartimento di Matematica ed Informatica, Università di Catania, Viale
Andrea Doria 6, 95125, Catania, email: [email protected], tel: 095 7383039, fax: 095
330094
RU Composition:
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
Man/Months
2nd phase
3
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
Man/Months
2nd phase
3
Fraunhofer-ITWM
Fraunhofer-ITWM
2
2
2
3
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Russo Giovanni
Professor
Participants
Position
Institution
Sebastiano
Boscarino
Alfio Bonanno
Stavro Ivanovski
Norbert Siedow
Sudarsan Tiwari
Researcher
Researcher
PhD student
Researcher
Researcher
2
2
2
3
Task 2 – Numerical Simulations and Satellite Techniques
This project concerns development of mathematical models and numerical methods for
lava flows. Many problems in environmental sciences involve the large-scale movement of
solids and fluids. They are often irregular in their timing, difficult to observe and measure,
involve multiple types of physical processes on a broad range of spatial and temporal
scales and can be catastrophic in their consequences. Computational modelling can play an
important role both in helping understanding the nature of the fundamental processes
involved, and in predicting the detailed outcomes of various types of events in specific
locations.
With this project we propose to study novel mathematical models to describe the behavior
of lava, with particular attention to cooling and solidification, and to develop different
numerical techniques for lava flow simulation.
Mathematical model of lava cooling.
Traditionally, lava is considered a Bingham fluid, whose heat exchange is dominated by
conduction and convection inside the lava, and by radiation (through the Stefan term)
concentrated at its surface. The radiative heat transfer may play a role in accurately predict
solidification time. One of the objectives of the research is to perform a quantitative
investigation of the relevance of the thickness of lava in the heat exchange process that
leads to the crust formation. At the Fraunhofer ITWM there is a research group, lead by
Dr. Norbert Siedow, who studied the effect of radiative transfer in glass cooling,
developing an asymptotic model which is much more efficient than the full kinetic model
for radiative heat transfer, yet much more accurate than the purely convective-conductive
245
model that relegates radiative transfer to the Stefan term at the boundary. The results
obtained by the Fraunhofer group will be adapted to the lava, and the effect of influence of
the thickness of lava on its cooling time will be determined by a detailed numerical
simulation, using finite volume methods on a fixed domain.
Free Lagrangian methods for lava flow.
The use of Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics method (SPH) for lava flow simulation will
be investigated. SPHis a Lagrangian method for modeling heat and mass flows. Due to its
mesh-free nature and the handling of boundaries using SPH nodes, this method can handle
complex splashing and fragmenting free surface flows and the motion of multiple solid
equipment parts relatively easily. In traditional mesh-based methods used in commercial
fluid-flow packages, large mesh deformations are generated by the motion of the
equipment, leading to significant numerical problems. Alternatively, continuous regridding
of the mesh will make mesh-based method less efficient. In addition, the tracking of the
free surface is diffusive and inaccurate for the resolutions used. For SPH, materials are
discretized into particles that can move subject to equations of motion arising from the
governing partial differential equations. The particles are moving interpolation points that
carry with them (convect) physical properties and state information, such as the mass of
the fluid that the particle represents, its temperature, momentum, enthalpy, density, and
other properties. The inter-particle forces are calculated by smoothing the information from
nearby particles in a way that ensures that the resultant particle motion is consistent with
the motion of a corresponding real fluid, as determined by the governing equation (e.g., the
Navier-Stokes equations). So, particle-based modelling methods have specific advantages
over traditional grid or mesh-based continuum methods for geophysical problems. These
include highly accurate and non-diffusive prediction of complex free-surface behavior
including wave motion, fragmentation and splashing; accurate and automatic convection of
material; and the straightforward inclusion of multiscale multi-physics. The department of
Transport Processes of the Fraunhofer-ITWM has a large experience on the use of meshfree methods for fluid flow calculations, and the collaboration with them may be extremely
valuable in the application of SPH to lava flow.
These contributes will permit us to model the formation of the crust and, consequently, the
formation of the lava tube. This task will be developed with UR Del Negro.
Level set methods for free-boundary problems
Traditional finite element methods on unstructured tetrahedral grids become impractical
for free boundary problems, because most of the time would be spent to construct a grid
that adapts to the new geometry of the problem. This was one of the motivations for using
SPH for lava flow. As an alternative technique, one might explore the use of finite volume
methods on regular square grid on a large domain, using a level set function or the
associated signed distance function, to define the actual computational domain. The latter
is extended by the introduction of a few points outside of the domain (ghost points), whose
field variables are defined on the basis of the boundary conditions. A suitable evolution
equation for the level set function will automatically update the computational domain at
each time step. This approach, proposed by Osher and Fedkiw, is called ghost fluid
method. A similar approach for Navier-Stokes equation has been already used. A second
advantage of this approach is that the discretization of the equations is performed on a
regular square grid, which is usually more efficient and accurate than a discretization on an
unstructured grid with the same number of unknowns. Furthermore, such approach may be
more easily applicable to the asymptotic model for radiative heat transfer developed by
ITWM. One of the goals is to investigate the possibility of solving the partial differential
equations describing lava flow using the approach described above.
246
Project V3 – Lava
The development of the proposed mathematical models requires employing full time a new
young researcher. We propose to fund a contract for a young researcher (19000 Euros for
the contract of work, 5000 Euros for other expenses for each phase of the project). The
grant will be managed by the “Marcello Anile Center for Mathematics and its
Applications” (MACMA), an interuniversity research consortium among the Universities
of Catania and Florence, with the participation of the Fraunhofer ITWM Center of
Kaiserlautern (Germany).
1st half-year
1. Review of fluid dynamical models of lava, and development of a new model
obtained applying the boundary layer theory developed at ITWM for the radiative
heat transfer in glass.
2nd half-year
2. Validation of the model by comparison with classical model by fixed boundary
computation obtained by finite volume method
3. Investigation on the use of ghost-fluid method approach for the treatment of glass
or lava cooling on a fixed domain: formulation of the problem
1st half-year
1. Formulation of SPH discretization for the description of lava flow, using well
established mathematical models.
2. Implementation of SPH, and validation.
2nd half-year
3. Implementation of ghost-fluid method for glass or lava flow with moving
boundaries.
4. Comparison between SPH and ghost-fluid method.
First Phase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
,00
4000
19000
0,00
500
0,00
500
0,00
Totale
24000
24000
247
Second Phase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
4000
0,00
19000
0,00
0,00
500
0,00
500
0,00
Totale
0,00
24000
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Total
Categoria di spesa
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
8000
0,00
38000
0,00
0,00
1000
0,00
1000
0,00
Totale
0,00
48000
Prof. Giovanni Russo - Professor of Numerical Analysis, Department of Mathematics and
Computer Science, University of Catania, Italy; Director of the Marcello Anile Center for
Mathematics and its Applications (MACMA); Coordinator of the PhD program in
Mathematics for Technology, University of Catania (PhD Math. Tech.).
Professional experience: 2000-present Full Professor of Numerical Anaysis, University of
Catania, Italy; 2001-2006 Associate Editor SIAM J. Numer. Anal; 1992-2000 Associate
Professor of Numerical Analysis, University of L'Aquila, Italy; 1990-1992 Research
position at the University of L'Aquila, Italy; 1988-1990 Post doctoral position at the
Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences; 1987 CNR-NATO Fellowship for research
abroad; 1982-1983 Research experience for one year on solid state physics (laser
irradiation of semiconductors) at the Physics Institute of the University of Catania.
248
Project V3 – Lava
Educational background: 1984-1986 Ph.D. in Physics, University of Catania, Italy; Title
of the Thesis: "Propagation and Stability of Shock Waves in Classical and Relativistic
Gas Dynamics"
Advisor: Prof. A.M. Anile; 1976-1982 Laurea degree in Nuclear Engineering, Magna cum
Laude, Poiltecnico di Milano, Italy;
Research interests: Computational fluid dynamics - Numerical methods for conservation
laws - Numerical methods for kinetic equations - Mathematical modeling and simulation of
crystal growth
Anile, Angelo Marcello; Romano, Vittorio; Russo, Giovanni Extended hydrodynamical
model of carrier transport in semiconductors. SIAM J. Appl. Math. 61 (2000), no. 1, 74101
Russo, Giovanni; Smereka, Peter Kinetic theory for bubbly flow. I. Collisionless case.
SIAM J. Appl. Math. 56 (1996), no. 2, 327-357.
Russo, Giovanni; Smereka, Peter A level-set method for the evolution of faceted crystals.
SIAM J. Sci. Comput. 21 (2000), no. 6, 2073-2095.
N. Siedow. Radiative heat transfer and its application in glass production processes.
International Journal of Forming Processes. Vol. 2, No. 1-2/ 1999, pp 25-39.
A. Klar, N. Siedow. Boundary Layers and Domain Decomposition for Radiative Heat
Transferand Diffusion Equations: Applications to Glass Manufacturing Processes Euro.
Jnl of Applied Mathematics (1998), vol.9, pp.351-372.
249
Project V3 - LAVA
RU V3/9
Scientific Responsible: Andrea Tallarico, Professore Associato, Università di Bari, Centro
Interdipartimentale di Ricerca per la Valutazione e Mitigazione del Rischio Sismico e
Vulcanico, Via Orabona 4, 70125 Bari, email: [email protected], tel: 3397293528.
RU Composition:
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Andrea Tallarico
Associate
Professor
Università di
Bari
Participants
Position
Institution
Michele Dragoni
Full Professor
Stefano Santini
Antonello Piombo
Associate
Professor
Researcher
Marilena Filippucci
Research Fellow
Antonella Valerio
PhD student
Università di
Bologna
Università di
Urbino
Università di
Bologna
Università di
Bari
Università di
Bologna
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
Man/Months 2nd
phase
3
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
Man/Months 2nd
phase
3
3
3
3
3
5
5
5
5
TASK 5 - Scenario Forecast and Hazard Mitigation
WP 5.3 Effusion rates from thermal infrared satellite imagery
Thermo-fluid-dynamics of lava flows: theoretical aspects and experimental data.
The aim of the RU is to perform a quantitative study on the dynamics of lava flows in
order to provide the physical constrains necessary to develop a method to predict the lava
flows path. In particular, starting from the results achieved by the RU (V3 6/13) with
scientific responsible M. Dragoni within his project funded by Civil Protection during the
2005-07 contract, we intend to improve the reliability of the dynamical models of lava
flows nowadays available considering non-linear rheologies.
The study of non-linear rheologies appears to be a necessary step in order to describe the
lava behavior in a more realistic way getting over the approximation of the Newton or
Bingham fluid. This study needs both a theoretical approach taking into account the
thermal and fluid-dynamical processes, which take place in lava flows and the knowledge
of the parameters involved in the new rheological models. The models will consider lavas
with different chemical compositions (acidic, basic) and different effusion temperatures,
250
Project V3 – Lava
laterally unconfined flows and channelled flows, fed by variable effusion rates at the
eruption vent.
The flow models will employ different constitutive equations for the lava, aiming to check
which of them is more adequate to reproduce the different characteristics which are
observed in lava flows. In addition to the Newtonian and Bingham rheologies, we intend to
employ a power law rheology, representing a pseudoplastic rheological behaviour more
adequately than the Bingham body. In the case of a power law, the constitutive equation no
longer assumes a stress threshold associated with a constant viscosity for stress values
greater than the threshold, but includes a viscosity depending in a continuous manner on
strain rate and decreasing as the strain rate increases. The introduction of such a rheology
should allow to reproduce those characteristics of lava flows which are typical of a nonNewtonian behaviour, without resorting to the approximation connected with the Bingham
rheology, which predicts the existence of completely undeformed regions (the plug).
Modelling will be assisted by the availability of thermal and rheological data, which will
be collected by the experimental facilities at the Dept. of Earth and Environment,
University of Munich participating in the project as a subcontractor (responsible Dr. KaiUwe Hess) to which will be transferred 5000 Euros for each phase of the project. In
particular experimental data, regarding the viscosity and rheology of lava at subliquidus
temperature, appear to be necessary in order to describe the dynamics of lava flows far
from the vent where, as consequence of cooling, magma can easily reach temperatures
below its liquidus temperature. A phenomenon affecting lava cooling and consequently its
dynamical behaviour is the viscous thermal dissipation taking place during the flow. This
aspect is not yet exhaustively treated in volcanological literature and experimental
measurements of the amount of heat generated by this mechanism may be crucial in order
to decide if this heat source has to be taken into account in modelling lava flows.
The theoretical aspects will be studied by collaboration between the Universities of Bari
and Bologna. The complexity in the development of theoretical models, the necessity to
check the models against the experimental data collected by the group of Munich, the need
to implement the obtained results with the simulator of lava flows developed by the RU of
Catania, suggest to involve in the project a new young researcher, to employ full time. For
this reasons and taking into account that two people belonging to the RU will finish their
contracts with the University during the next year, we propose to fund a contract for a
young researcher. In this case an amount of money, corresponding to a contract for a
young researcher (20000 Euros for the contract of work, 4000 Euros for other expenses for
each phase of the project), will be transferred to the University of Bologna.
1st half-year
1. Experimental data concerning thermal properties of lava
2. Dynamical models with non linear rheology
2nd half-year
3. Model for crust formation
1st half-year
1. Experimental data concerning rheological properties of lava
251
2. Model to estimate the lava flow rate from satellite images
2nd half-year
3. Study of phenomena associated with lava flows (levee formation, tube formation,
ephemeral vents)
4. Implementation of the achieved results in the lava flows simulator
First Phase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
8000
0,00
25000
0,00
0,00
3000
0,00
4000
0,00
Totale
40000
Second Phase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
8000
0,00
25000
0,00
0,00
3000
0,00
4000
0,00
Totale
252
0,00
40000
Project V3 – Lava
Total
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
16000
0,00
50000
0,00
0,00
6000
0,00
8000
0,00
Totale
80000
Andrea Tallarico graduated in physics cum laude in the University of Bologna in 1991.
In 1995 he obtained PhD degree in physics from the University of Bologna. In 1995 he
obtained a fellowship in physics of volcanism at the University of Bologna. He was
university researcher since 1997 in the University of Bari. Since 2002 he is associate
professor of physics of the Earth in the University of Bari. Since 2003 he is member of the
Scientific Council of "Dottorato di Ricerca" in Earth Science established at University of
Bari. His research activity is carried out in the fields of physics of the volcanism,
seismology and tectonophysics. He was principal investigator in research projects funded
by ASI (Italian Space Agency).
M. Dragoni, A. Tallarico, Temperature field and heat flow around an elliptical lava tube
Journal
of
volcanology
and
geothermal
research,
2007
doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.08.016
Piombo, A., Tallarico, A., M. Dragoni M., Displacement, strain and stress fields due to
shear and tensile dislocations in a viscoelastic half-space. Geophysical Journal
International,
170,
3,
1399-1417,
2007
doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03283.x
Tallarico, A., M. Dragoni, and G. Zito, Evaluation of lava effusion rate and viscosity from
other flow parameters J. Geophys. Res., 111, B11205, doi:10.1029/2005JB003762,
2006.
Dragoni, M; Borsari, I; Tallarico, A., A model for the shape of lava flow fronts. J.
Geophys. Res , Vol. 110, No. B9, B09203 doi:10.1029/2004JB003523, 2005.
Tallarico, A., M. Dragoni, M. Anzidei, and A. Esposito, Modeling long-term ground
deformation due to the cooling of a magma chamber: Case of Basiluzzo island, Aeolian
Islands, Italy, J. Geophys. Res., 108(B12), 2568, doi:10.1029/2002JB002376, 2003.
253
Project V3 - LAVA
RU V3/10
Scientific Responsible: Valerio Tramutoli, Researcher, Università degli Studi della
Basilicata, Dipartimento di Ingegneria e Fisica dell’Ambiente, Via dell’Ateneo Lucano, 10,
85100 Potenza. email: [email protected], tel e fax: 0971-205205
RU Composition:
Man/Months
1st phase
3
Man/Months
2nd phase
3
IMAA-CNR
DIFA-UNIBAS
Man/Months
1st phase
2
3
Man/Months
2nd phase
2
3
DIFA-UNIBAS
DIFA-UNIBAS
DIFA-UNIBAS
DIFA-UNIBAS
IMAA-CNR
DIFA-UNIBAS
IMAA-CNR
IMAA-CNR
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
IMAA-CNR
2
2
IMAA-CNR
2
2
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Valerio Tramutoli
Researcher
DIFA-UNIBAS
Participants
Position
Institution
Nicola Pergola
Francesco Marchese
Researcher
Research
Fellow
PhD student
PhD student
PhD student
PhD student
Researcher
Contract Res.
Researcher
Research
Fellow
Research
Fellow
Research
Fellow
Giuseppe Mazzeo
Giuseppe Baldassarre
Carolina Aliano
Mariano Lisi
Carolina Filizzola
Rosita Corrado
Teodosio Lacava
Rossana Paciello
Sara L. C. Grimaldi
Mariapia Faruolo
The Research Unit will contribute to the project mainly to Task 2 and Task 5, developing
and validating up to a pre-operative level, a Robust Satellite Techniques (RST), for realtime detection and monitoring of hot spots related to volcanic eruptions suitable to:
-
follow space-time evolution of lava flows
monitor relative variation of the thermally emitted signal
estimate lava effusion rate
The possibility to produce early warning for impending eruption will be also evaluated and
tested also by exploit the analysis of available long-term satellite records.
254
Project V3 – Lava
TASK 2 – Numerical Simulations and Satellite Techniques
WP 2.3 – Development of techniques for hotspot detection.
WP 2.4 – Development of techniques for lava effusion rate measurements
The RST approach for automated detection of thermal features related to volcanic activity
(Pergola et al., 2004) demonstrated a very high reliability (false alarms rate < 2%) and a
high sensitivity even toward very low (and pre-eruptive, see also Di Bello et al., 2004)
thermal variations. Its implementation on NOAA/AVHRR satellite data has been
successfully experimented on Italian volcanoes in the framework of several research
projects and, in particular on Mount Etna volcano during the previous DPC-INGV
volcanological project. In this task the advanced possibilities offered by EOS/MODIS in
terms of higher dynamical range in the MIR and higher spatial resolution in the VIS
spectral regions will be exploited in order to improve lava affected pixels identification
(reducing saturation problems) and lava flow mapping integrating MIR (at 1 km) with VIS
(at 250m) observations. The extended dynamic range offered by MODIS in the MIR will
be also exploited to better monitor relative variations of the lava thermally emitted signal
trying to discriminate, within each image pixel, the lava temperature, from the lava
extension, contribute to the measured signal. Similar positive impacts are expected from
MODIS, on the determination of effusion rate estimation using traditional (e.g. Harris et al.
1997) or improved, RST based, approaches. Moreover coupling AVHRR with MODIS
based data, the frequency of lava map updating will be also improved up to 3 hours and
more.
AVHRR and MODIS data are directly received and routinely processed at RU labs where
multi-years datasets are also available. During the first year of the project a specific
processing chain for Etna thermal activity monitoring will be activated in order to achieve:
- improved algorithms for hot spots detection (to obtain better effusive rate
estimations) based on MODIS
- a completely automated generation of MODIS+AVHRR based products
TASK 5 – Scenario Forecast and Hazard Mitigation
WP 5.1 - Hot-spot detection in near real-time
WP 5.3 - Effusion rates from thermal infrared satellite imagery
The second year of the project will be mainly devoted to the validation of both, algorithms
and product generation chain, and to their integration into DPC interface.
Algorithm test will be performed at first on selected event in the past then in near real-time
in a pre-operative context. Product chain generation as well as their transfer into the DPC
operative system will be also planned, implemented and tested in a pre-operative way in
this phase.
1st half-year
1. improved algorithms for hot spots detection based on AVHRR
2nd half-year
2. improved algorithms for hot spots detection based on MODIS
255
3. completely automated generation of MODIS+AVHRR based products (for lava
mapping, effusive rate estimation, etc.)
1st half-year
1. Implementation and test of automated processing chain for satellite product
generation.
2nd half-year
2. Design, implementation and test of interfaces for the integration of satellite based
products into the DPC operational system.
First Phase
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
3000
0,00
12000
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
3000
0,00
2000
0,00
Totale
0,00
20000
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Second Phase
Categoria di spesa
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
3000
0,00
12000
0,00
0,00
3000
0,00
2000
0,00
Totale
256
0,00
20000
Project V3 – Lava
Total
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
6000
0,00
24000
0,00
0,00
6000
0,00
4000
0,00
Totale
0,00
40000
Valerio Tramutoli
Date of birth: 28 December 1957, Nationality: Italian.
Degree in Physics at the Rome “La Sapienza” University. Since 1990 he is at the
University of Basilicata as senior researcher (since 1993) where holds (since 1997) the
courses on General Physics and Satellite Remote Sensing for Natural and Environmental
Hazards, at the Faculties of Engineering and Sciences. Since 1991 he has been visiting
scientist in the main international centres involved in the Earth’s observation by satellite
and has taken part as coordinator, PI or co-investigator in several national and international
projects as well as international scientific groups (in the framework of EU, ESA, ASI,
EUMETSAT, NASA, NASDA EO, IGOS activities). He has been among the few italian
scientists invited to partecipate, since 2001, to the IGOS-Geohazard Core Team committed
by IGOS Partners to define the new observational strategies for geo-hazards mitigation for
the next decade. Since 2001 is the responsible of LADSAT (Satellite Data Analysis)
Laboratory at DIFA. His research activity has been focused on the development of new
satellite sensors and techniques in the field of natural, environmental and industrial hazards
monitoring (and mitigation) by satellite remote sensing. In this framework since 1998 he
proposed the general RAT (now named RST) approach.
Filizzola, C., Lacava, T., Marchese, F., Pergola, N., Scaffidi, I., Tramutoli, V., 2007.
“Assessing RAT (Robust AVHRR Technique) performances for volcanic ash cloud
detection and monitoring in near real-time: The 2002 eruption of Mt. Etna (Italy)”.
Remote Sensing of The Environment, 107, 440-454.
Pergola, N., Tramutoli, V., Scaffidi, I., Lacava, T., Marchese, F., 2004, Improving volcanic
ash clouds detection by a robust satellite technique, Remote Sensing of Environment,
Volume 90, Issue 1, pp. 1-22.
Pergola, N., Marchese, F., Tramutoli, V., 2004, Automated detection of thermal features of
active volcanoes by means of Infrared AVHRR records. Remote Sensing of
Environment, Volume 93, Issue 3, pp. 311-327.
257
Di Bello G., Filizzola C., Lacava T., Marchese F., Pergola N., Pietrapertosa C., Piscitelli
S., Scaffidi I., Tramutoli V., 2004, Robust Satellite Techniques for Volcanic and Seismic
Hazards Monitoring, Annals of Geophysics, 47, (1) 49-64.
Marchese, F., Telesca, L., Pergola, N. (2006). Investigating the temporal fluctuations in
satellite advanced very high resolution radiometer thermal signals measured in the
volcanic area of Etna (Italy). Fluctuations and Noise Letters, 6, no.3, 305-316.
258
PROJECT V4 – FLANK
259
260
Project V4 - FLANK
Hazards related to the flank dynamics at Mt. Etna
Coordinators:
Giuseppe Puglisi, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Catania,
Piazza Roma, 2, 95123 Catania, Italy, [email protected]
Valerio Acocella, Dipartimento Scienze Geologiche Università Roma Tre, Largo S.L.
Murialdo, 1, 00146 Roma, Italy, [email protected]
Objectives
Many active volcano flanks show clear evidence of an activity resulting from several
causes including magma ascent along the feeding system and conduits, gravity force, local
and/or regional tectonic activity. Such factors may interact in a complex way with each
other and with the intrinsically complex volcano system. The result is quite often an
increased difficulty of a straightforward interpretation of the observed phenomena (e.g.,
ground movement, seismicity) for an effective evaluation of the volcano hazards, as it was
the case with Mount St. Helens volcano in 1980.
Among the Italian volcanoes, Mount Etna shows the most relevant case of active flank
dynamics along its East and South-East sectors, with some well-known seismogenic
structures, such as the Pernicana fault, or highly evident morphologies, such as the Valle
del Bove. Recent volcanic crises such as that of 2002-03 have been associated with seismic
activity in the East sector of Mount Etna (e.g., Santa Venerina – Santa Tecla fault) causing
relevant concern and implying further troubles in the scientific and Civil Protection
management of the crises.
Despite the above evidences, the large scale eastern flank instability of Etna is still today
the subject of debate, and in-depth dedicated research is necessary, with the aim of
evaluating the influence of the geodynamic setting (geology, tectonics, etc.), its
relationships with the volcano’s activity and the related hazard.
The aim of the present project is that of understanding the relationships between the preeruptive and eruptive dynamics, the shallow feeding system, and the tectonics on the East
volcano sector. This will be achieved through i) a better definition of the structural and
lithostratigraphic setting of the shallow portion of the volcano in critical sectors like those
of the Timpe or the Rift; ii) an in-depth investigation of the dynamics of the main active
tectonic structures; iii) the analysis of the relationships between volcanic activity and flank
dynamics; iv) a detailed study of movements in the submerged sector of the volcano. A
proposal for modification/innovation of the present monitoring system at Mount Etna will
be a qualifying project outcome. This approach will allow improving the knowledge on the
factors controlling flank instability at various scales on the volcano. This wide-ranging
analysis of the flank dynamics at Mt. Etna will be also useful to define areas and processes
relative to specific, potentially hazardous instabilities, from possible sudden, massive flank
collapses of a portion of a volcano to localized creep-like movements.
261
a. integration of geo-volcanological, geophysical and geochemical data already
available in order to define the areal extent of the volcano side subject to
movements and plan geophysical investigation aimed at determining its thickness.
b. Geo-volcanolgical studies on selected reference cases aimed at the definition of the
relationships between the shallow feeding system and the flank dynamics.
c. Geophysical and geochemical investigation (including the submerged portion of the
volcano) aimed at a better characterization of the lithostratigraphic units and
tectonic structures at depth, also addressed at the individuation of potential
surface/s of instability.
d. Modelling of geophysical, geochemical and geo-volcanological data aimed at
establishing the relationships between magmatic and tectonic structures and their
effects on the parameters recorded by the monitoring network.
e. Formulating proposals for the improvement of the monitoring system.
f. Study of systems for the evaluation of the hazard from flank dynamics related to
the occurrence of volcanic and/or seismic events.
Espected products
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Data employed in the project, organized in a GIS database.
3D definition of sectors of the volcano affected by flank dynamics.
Characterization of geo-volcanological aspects of reference volcanic events and
medium-long term evaluation of the effects on the flank dynamics, including the
characterisation and analysis of time-space patterns of the geophysical and
geochemical signals recorded.
Numerical simulations aimed at defining relationships between pre-eruptive and
eruptive dynamics and surface stress field.
Detailed mapping of seismic hazard for the main active structures of the East sector
of the volcano, including the relationships with the volcanic dynamics.
Evaluation of the hazard deriving from flank dynamics at Mount Etna, and
guidelines for a possible improvement of the monitoring system.
Feasibility study for the realization of an interface at the Functional Center of DPC,
to be agree upon with the same DPC, for the seismic hazard mapping described
above.
The tectonic framework of Mt. Etna is dominated by a N-S trending direction of
maximum compression, due to the Eurasia-Africa plates collision, and a related E-W
trending direction of maximum extension, associated with the development of the Malta
Escarpment, the possible surface expression of a tear in the subducting Ionian slab (see
Bousquet and Lanzafame, 2004, for a review).
Significant portions of the eastern and south-eastern flanks of the volcanic edifice are
characterized by down-slope movements, occurring with extremely different rates, from
mm/yr to cm/yr, up to m/week during some eruptive events. On the northern part of the
eastern flank, there is a general agreement that the boundary of the unstable sector is
represented by the E-W trending Pernicana Fault System, extending from the NE Rift to
the coastline, with a predominant left-lateral motion. Here the flank shows a predominant
ESE slip (Neri et al., 2004, and references therein).
To the south, the slip of the flank appears less consistent, being directed towards SE
and S, and controlled by several structures, with different geometry and kinematics.
262
Among these, are the NNW-SSE striking Timpe Fault System (TFS), considered as the
onshore continuation of the Malta escarpment. This fault system is made up of several
NNW-SSE-striking faults with transtensive dextral displacement and characterized by
shallow seismicity (1-2 km of depth).
The outermost structure confining the slip of the flank to the south is the N-S trending
dextral Ragalna Fault (Neri and Rust, 1996). In addition, the slip of the SE flank of Etna is
also characterized by the development of an E-W trending anticline, recognizable through
InSAR data (Froger et al., 2001). These suggest that the fold, dissected by NW-SE trending
dextral faults, probably continues off-shore. The spatial-temporal relationships between
these different structures (faults, with various geometry and kinematics, and folds) are still
poorly constrained.
While the structure of the on-shore and shallower portion of the unstable flank is
sufficiently known (even though more studies are needed to constrain the SE part), the
deeper part of the unstable flank is still largely unknown. For example, different depths for
its basal decollement(s) have been proposed. In fact, the base of the sliding sector has been
inferred to lie at 1-2 km above sea level (asl) (Bousquet and Lanzafame, 2001), at 1-3 km
below sea level (bsl) (Bonforte and Puglisi, 2003, Lundgren et al., 2005), at 5~6 km bsl
(Borgia et al., 1992; Neri et al., 2004) and at both shallow and deep levels (Tibaldi and
Groppelli, 2002). In addition, several authors have argued that the slip of the flank may
result from shallower and deeper magma intrusion [e.g., Borgia et al., 1992; Lo Giudice
and Rasà, 1992; Rust and Neri, 1996; Bonforte and Puglisi, 2003; Rust et al., 2005; Walter,
2005), suggesting a feed-back between gravity and magma emplacement within the
volcano (McGuire et al., 1990).
The unstable E flank of Etna is also characterized by a higher seismicity with regard to
the rest of the volcano (Gresta et al., 1990). This recently culminated, during the 20022003 eruption, in the destructive events of S. Venerina, characterized by shallow epicenters
aligned along a NNW-SSE direction (Acocella et al., 2003). More in general, the 20022003 eruption, characterized by pre-eruptive and syn-eruptive seismicity, also
accompanying the slip of significant portions of the unstable flank, suggested the existence
of complex relationships between volcanic, seismic and flank activity.
The previously described state of the art deserves future investigations, summarized by
the following key questions:
- What is the spatial-temporal relationship between the different types of structures
accommodating the slip of Mt. Etna flanks?
- How deep is the flank slip?
- What is the relationship between flank slip and volcanic activity?
- What is the relationship between flank slip and seismic activity?
- Which are the main factors controlling the flank instability?
Project FLANK aims at minimizing the hazards related to the instability of Etna flanks.
As shown in the previous section, this project will be focused on the E and S flanks, for
which geological evidence of instability is widely proven. The hazards resulting from flank
instability concern, in general, seismic and volcanic activity; therefore, most of the project
is focusing at facing the hazard possibly deriving from these processes. However, in some
cases, restricted to specific areas of the volcano, flank instability may lead to surface
fracturing and/or creeping processes, as well as to the development of landslides. A part of
this project will focus on the hazard deriving from surface fracturing, creep-like processes
and landslides at selected areas.
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In general, this Project will significantly rely on previously collected data, either those
produced and available in a previous DPC-INGV project (e.g. the Etna V3_6 project,
performed in 2005-2007) and those available from the monitoring systems implemented on
Mt. Etna from INGV, in the last decade. In fact, this combined dataset constitutes a
massive amount of geological, geophysical and geochemical information, which largely
waits to be analyzed and interpreted yet.
The availability of such a large amount of data will permit to: 1) have a
comprehensive and multidisciplinary view on the various processes characterizing flank
instability; 2) analyze, integrate and merge the existing data, also focusing, for the first
time, at defining the relationships between different datasets and processes; 3) highlight
specific activities (surveys and /or modeling), which still have to be carried out in order to
complete the data set or provide some unavailable parameters. In general, these activities
will provide collecting all the required new data within the first part of the project, in order
to interpret and make the data available to the project within the second part.
In order to ensure coordination and cooperation with the Project V3 – Lava, we
intend, in agreement with the Lava Coordinators, to organize jointly the kick-off meeting
of the two projects. Additional informal meetings between Task leaders of the two Projects
will also take place with the same aim.
To achieve its goal, the Project is structured in Tasks, each considering a specific
expected product, listed in the “Objectives” section.
In particular, Task 1 will be devoted to the implementation of the database into a GIS
system.
Task 2 will be devoted to the definition of the 3D geometry and structure of the portion
of the volcano characterized by instability.
Task 3 will be devoted to define the geo-volcanological processes and their
relationships, also in the frame of the available geophysical and geochemical data, both on
the long and the short term.
Task 4 will be devoted to model (with constraints from Tasks 2 and 3) specific aspects
of the instability of the flank, including stress, strain, triggering factors, cause/effect
relationships, stability conditions.
Task 5 will be devoted to produce (with constraints from Tasks 2, 3 and 4) detailed
maps of seismic hazard, associated to the main structures of the unstable flank, and to
evaluate the other hazards (volcanic, surface fracturing and creep) deriving from the
instability of the flank. These results will be merged in a synthetic form in prototypal
procedures for the evaluation of the hazard changes due to flank dynamics.
The figure below offers a synthetic synoptic view of all the activities. The successive
flow chart includes the roles of RU’s in the different Project activities, and illustrates the
finalization of the Project to a procedure for an integrated and multidisciplinary alert
system related to flank dynamics at Mount Etna. The activities of Tasks 2, 3, 4 and 5 are
grouped in WorkPakages in order both to facilitate the exchanges among different RUs
involved in similar activities and improve the quality of the final products. A detailed
description of the Tasks is provided below.
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Synthetic synoptic view of project activities
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Flow chart of Project achievements and products
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Task 1. GIS (Responsible: D. Reitano )
RU Participating: all
The large amount of data which will be used in the FLANK Project, either already
available at its onset (e.g. provided from the monitoring systems or previous projects) or
resulting from the planned activities, are widely multidisciplinary. This task is aimed at
implementing a web-GIS infrastructure able to manage the different types of data; the webinterface will be user-friendly and able to guarantee different access levels, if necessary. It
is planned that the web-GIS will be also able to disseminate the main selected results of the
project, in the case that the consortium wishes to present the project results to the wider
scientific community. This activity will be carried out in cooperation with LAVA project,
as it shares a large amount of data with the FLANK project. In particular, this cooperation
mainly results from the activity of the RU11 (team 1). More in general, joint meetings
(including the kick-off meeting) are planned between the LAVA and FLANK projects, as
well as a continuous exchange of information and data.
All RUs (Research Units) will implement their data sets into the database, at the onset
of the project if these are already available, or during the project, if the data must be
collected. Details on each data set type are provided into the applications of the different
RUs (see below). ). The database will be implemented with the aim of ensure the
maximum compatibility with the WOVOdat standards.
Task 2. Geometry, kinematics and structure of the “unstable” flanks
RU Participating: Valerio Cancella (RU-01), Andrea Argnani (RU-03), Francesco Chiocci
(RU-05), Ornella Cocina (RU-06), Cinzia Federico (RU-07), Francesco Mazzarini (RU09), Giuseppe Puglisi (RU-11), Agata Siniscalchi (RU-12).
The aim of this Task is to investigate the 3D structure (geometry and kinematics) of the
unstable flanks of Etna, with particular attention to the definition of the associated
deformations. This information will permit to: have a reference data set to evaluate any
relationship between the structure of the flank and volcanic and seismic activity (Task 3);
significantly constrain the results from numerical and analogue models (Task 4); provide
the basic information for any hazard evaluation (Task 5).
The Task is divided into 2 Work-Packages (WP): WP-2A, considering the surface
features and WP-2B, considering the features at depth.
WP-2A) Surface (Responsible: S. Branca)
This WP aims at gathering all the available surface information regarding the slip of
Etna flanks, both on-shore (i) and off-shore (ii). These two parts are characterized by the
following features.
i) Integration of the data concerning the main structural and kinematic features of the
on-shore portion of the “unstable” flanks. Most of these data have been previously
collected, largely by RU-11, even though focalized and local studies may be eventually
carried in the first part of the research, to better define specific features. The data set to be
analyzed and merged includes: field survey data (RU-11), gas emission data (RU-11, RU07), GPS, leveling and DinSAR data (RU-11), and SBAS velocity maps. The last one have
been already produced and analyzed by the CNR-IREA institute of Napoli. While this
institute will not be officially involved in the first stage of the project (appearing in RU-01,
though), an ongoing collaboration with some of the researchers participating in this project
will assure, under the responsibility of the coordinators, the availability of the SBAS
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velocity maps. The aim of this part of the project is to provide a comprehensive
multidisciplinary frame, including the area(s) characterized by a consistent slip, as well as
the major and minor structures through which the motion occurs.
ii) Interpretation and integration of different data sets, to identify the main geological
and structural features of the proximal and distal of the unstable flank in the off-shore
domain. These data sets include a detailed bathymetry (RU-05; RU-03) and seafloor
sampling (RU-05), whose results will be related to the on-shore coastal portion, in
collaboration with RU-11. Except for seafloor sampling, all of the remaining data sets have
been already collected by the RUs. Seafloor sampling will be performed in the first part of
the project, and will be focused at specific locations of particular interest. Attention will be
devoted, in this part, to the definition of the main geological (nature and age of deposits)
and structural (faults and folds) features characterizing the off-shore unstable portion, as
well as the definition of its aerial extent.
WP-2B) Depth (Responsible: O. Cocina)
This WP aims at collecting new data and gathering them with all the already available
information regarding the geometry of deep structures of Etna flanks. The activities will be
carried out in this WP are the following.
i) Interpretation and integration of all the available subsurface well-data on the onshore
portion of the unstable flanks (RU-07). These will permit to define the main lithotypes at
depth, including the configuration of the top of the sedimentary substratum, below the
volcanic pile. Moreover, the well-data (most of them built for water purposes), in addition
to the available spring data, will permit to define the depth, extent and volume of the main
aquifer(s) of the E and S flanks. This evaluation will be particularly useful to best interpret
the shallow geophysical results (resistivity and magnetotelluric), partly previously acquired
and, partly, to be acquired in this project, from RU-12. Additionally it will represent an
important data for the definition of the geological and hydrogeological model in
performing the stress-strain analysis include in task 4 from RU-02.
ii) Deeper geophysical analysis of the on-shore portion of the unstable flanks (RU-06).
This will consist of the following two studies. Application and implementation of seismic
tomography techniques for the definition of the 3D velocity tomography (VP and VP/VS
tomographies) and attenuation structure (Qp models) of the deeper portion of the unstable
area. High precision locations of seismic events also focused at recognizing the most
important seismogenetic structures. This study will permit to evaluate the deeper structure
of the on-shore unstable portion.
iii) Resistivity and magnetotelluric properties of selected portions of the unstable flank
(RU-12). This study will be characterized by the following two activities. Continuation of
the previous promising studies along the Pernicana Fault (NE sector), which permitted to
infer a possible depth for the basal decollement of the unstable sector; the aim of this
activity, in the present project, is to provide definitive constraints on the structure and
depth of the decollement in the northern part of the unstable flank. Definition of the
relationships among different structures characterizing the slip of the SE flank (faults with
different orientation), by constraining their deeper extent. All these data will be collected
in the first part of the project and will be of particular interest to define the local extent of
the on-shore structures, as well as the deeper extent of the unstable sector in the NE and SE
portions of the volcano. This information will be particularly useful for Task 4 and, in part,
for Tasks 3 and 5.
iv) Interpretation of the existing data sets of seismic lines, devoted at understanding the
deeper geology and structure of the off-shore portion of the eastern flank. In particular, two
recently acquired seismic data sets are available: a shallower, high resolution, one (RU-09)
and a deeper one (RU-03). While the first data set will permit to investigate the details of
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the shallow structure, as well as the structural and stratigraphic relationships of the offshore flank, the second data set will permit to define the deeper structural and stratigraphic
features, as well as the relationships with the regional tectonic structures, outcropping
immediately to the south of the investigated area, along the Malta escarpment. Both data
sets will be compared and integrated, in order to provide a general and consistent frame,
through the experience of the researchers and geologists involved to analyze the seismic
marine profiles and the morpho-bathymetric data, to define the structural features and the
debris avalanched deposits. In addition, these results will be also integrated with those
collected by RU-5, and subsequently with those available in the on-shore portion (RU-11).
Task 3. Relationships between flank dynamics, eruptive activity and
geophysics/geochemistry data
RU Participating: Raffaele Azzaro (RU-04), Cinzia Federico (RU-07), Carlo Giunchi
(RU-08), Giuseppe Nunnari (RU-10), Giuseppe Puglisi (RU-11).
The aim of this Task is to define the possible cause/effect relationships between flank
dynamics and magmatic activity, in broader terms. Therefore, this Task will consider the
existence of any significant pattern in the geophysical, geochemical and geological
(volcanological, petrological, structural) available dataset, in relation to the episodes of
instability of the flanks of the volcano also considering available meteorological data. In
general, this information will be particularly useful to better constrain and validate the
numerical and analogue models of Task 4 and to provide an appropriate database for
hazard evaluation in Task 5.
This Task is divided into 2 Work-Packages (WP): WP-3A is focused on the LongTerm behavior and WP-3B on the Short-Term behavior.
WP-3A) Long term (last 300-400 years from catalogue data) (Responsible: G. Nunnari)
i) Analysis of the historical seismicity, from catalogue data (RU-04). This will, first of all,
permit to uniform, classify and parameterize the available dataset. Such an analysis will
also permit to characterize the behavior of the main seismogenic faults, through the
reconstruction of the curves of the seismic strain release, b value and occurrence models.
These analyses are expected to indicate how the faulting processes relate to eruptive
dynamics (emplacement of dykes) or larger-scale processes (instability of the flank,
offshore tectonics). These data will be of crucial importance to evaluate the hazard
deriving from seismic activity (Task 5).
ii) Analysis of the historical volcanic events, as well as of the related products, to define
the main eruptions, and associated features, related to the dynamics of the flank (UR-11).
In particular, the relationships between summit and flank activity in the frame of the slip of
the flanks (as during the occurrence of seismic events) will be investigated. The data will
be analyzed, from a statistical point of view, in collaboration with RU-10.
iii) Advanced statistical integrated analysis of the volcanic dataset provided by RU-04 and
RU-11, to define the long-term reference volcanic events and any self-organization in
volcanic activity related to flank slip (RU-10). Such an analysis will be focused on selforganized criticality theory (SOC), permitting to highlight possible behaviors, otherwise
difficult to identify, given the complexity of the problem. These data will be of particular
interest to constrain the models (Task 4) and evaluate the hazard deriving from seismic
activity (Task 5).
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WP-3B) Short term (1993-2004, monitoring data) (Responsible: M. Neri)
i) Assessment of a complete volcanological, geochemical and geophysical data-base. In
particular, the volcanological data-set will investigate the relationship between magmatic
activity (petrology of the erupted products, evaluation of the plumbing system) and flank
dynamics (RU-11). The geochemical features will include studies of shallow magma
degassing in soil and aquifer, through appropriate modeling (porosity and permeability,
fluid circulation) (RU-07). The geophysical features will include the study of long-period
LP earthquakes, as well as the definition of the polarization of earthquakes along the major
faults on the unstable flanks, both able to cause significant damage (RU-08). These studies
will be of particular importance for the analyses at points ii) and iii), as well as for Task 5
(in collaboration with RU-04, and RU-11).
ii) Analysis of each data-set aimed at characterizing the relationships between each
type of data and flank dynamics, e.g.: volcanological data (eruptive fracture
distribution/evolution, time-evolution of chemical features of volcanic products and related
erupted volumes), structural data (fault location, slip and size), geophysical data
(time/spatial-evolution of geophysical data, including GPS, seismic, gravity and magnetic
stations, definition of source mechanism of typical seismic events), geochemical data
(time/spatial-evolution of geochemical data from soils, at specific locations, and plumes)
(RU-11). This analysis will be performed in collaboration with RU-10.
iii) Multidisciplinary review analysis of the different data-sets (volcanology, structure,
geophysics, geochemistry), in relation to flank instability. This integrated study will be
performed by RU-11, in collaboration with RU-10. It will lead to an advanced automatic
multivariate statistical analysis, named data mining, consisting of the extraction of implicit
and potentially useful information from large collections of data (RU-10, in collaboration
with RU-11). Data mining will be focused on a selected database (namely seismic and
High-Frequency GPS data) and, through the classification of events, aimed at identifying
time/spatial patterns eventually related to the dynamics of the flank. The results of this
study will be of particular importance for modeling validation, in Task 4, and hazard
evaluation, in Task 5.
Task 4. Modeling
RU Participating: Valerio Acocella (RU-01), Tiziana Apuani (RU-02), Carlo Giunchi
(RU-08), Francesco Mazzarini (RU-09), Giuseppe Nunnari (RU-10), Giuseppe Puglisi
(RU-11).
This Task is aimed at providing the required simulations for DPC to define the
relationships between pre-eruptive and eruptive dynamics and the surface stress and strain
distribution. This problem will be faced by using both numerical and analogue models.
Both require an improvement of the knowledge of the basic parameters used in the models.
Thus, the activities of this Task are grouped into 3 Work-Packages (WP): WP-4A
(Definition of the parameters), WP-4B (Numerical models) and WP-4C (Analogue
models). The results of this Task will be exploited into Task 5, to assess the seismic and
volcanic hazard related to the flank dynamics. Moreover, consistent modeling results may
also help in better constraining the interpretation of the models deriving from the
geological and geophysical activities proposed in Task 2.
WP-4A) Definition of the parameters (Responsible: M. Pompilio)
Since the fundamental question of this Task is to assess the stress-strain relationship
between the structure of the volcano and the dynamics of magmas within the volcanic
“reservoirs” (in broad sense) or pathways, the basic parameters which will be investigated
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in this WP are i) those characterizing the mechanic and rheologic properties of rocks
forming the volcano and its basement and ii) those characterizing the pre-eruptive
conditions of the magma.
i) RU-08 will carry out tests to define both the physical properties (e.g. density and
porosity) and the mechanical parameters (e.g. static elastic modules) of main lithotypes.
These tests will provide also other information useful not only for the modeling, but also to
improve the analysis and interpretation of studies on seismic anisotropies carried out in the
Task 3; this is the case of the measurement of the seismic anisotropy of P ands waves. RU11 will provide an estimation of viscosity of sedimentary basement below selected areas of
eastern flank (along the Pernicana Fault) by exploiting the GPS measurements collected
during the 2002-03 eruption. The RU-2 will calibrate geotechnical models by integrating
the results specific geotechnical and geomechanical laboratory tests with other tests,
including those performed by RU-08.
ii) The definition of the pre-eruptive conditions in terms of pressure, temperature and
chemio- physical properties of magma will be achieved by petrologic study of products of
relevant eruptions. In particular the evolution of processes of degassing, decompression
and magma chamber refilling will be obtained from detailed studies of zoning of minerals
of selected eruptions. Such estimates will be obtained using current thermodynamic
modeling and results of experiments on phase-equilibria carried out by participants to RU09, during the previous DPC-INGV Etna Project. All the data will serve as input for
numerical modeling (WP-4B). Further specific laboratory experiments will be carried out
in order to improve the resolution of some parameters and to validate the above models.
WP-4B) Numerical models (Responsible: C. Giunchi )
The relationships between pre-eruptive and eruptive dynamics and the surface stress
and strain distribution will be investigated through three different approaches: i) one is
aimed at modeling the geodetic data, to infer on the stress-strain relationship related to the
flank dynamics; ii) the second deals with the relationships between magma equilibrium and
flank dynamics; iii) the third investigates the critical conditions generating flanks
instability through geotechnical modeling.
i) Several recent studies, based on analytical modeling of ground deformations of Mt.
Etna, allowed the identification of the major structures controlling the dynamics of the
eastern and south-eastern flank. However, these analytical studies cannot give satisfactory
answers in evaluating the cause-effect relationships among the intense geodetic strain
pattern, the stress that magmatic “structures” produce or suffer, the stress field originating
flank instability and the lively seismicity characterizing the eastern and southern flanks.
Numerical models may give suitable answers to these questions, with potential applications
to civil defence purposes. In this project, both Finite and Boundary Element Models (FEM
and BEM) will be used to assess the distribution of the static stress, with particular care to
its distribution along the main structures of the volcanic flanks. The 3D structural
assessment resulting from Task 2 will allow improvement of the meshing of the numerical
models. In particular, RU-08 will create a full model of the volcano, including topography,
the principal volcanic and seismogenic structures and the appropriate rheological behaviors
(e.g. anelasticity in proximity of volcanic sources). A sensitivity analysis will be also
performed to evaluate the stability of the FEM approach as functions of assumed structural
geometries and rheology. RU-11 will use FEM to compute synthetic Green’s functions that
will be combined with an inverse method to estimate the distribution of the dislocations of
the main seismogenic structures; these results will allow computation of the Coulomb
stress changes. The use of the BEM, which will be carried out by RU-10, may improve the
efficiency of numerical approaches due to the reduced numbers of mathematical
relations/parameters involved in this type of numerical modeling approach; specific
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comparison among the results of the different RU involved in the numerical modeling of
ground deformation will be performed.
ii) Numerical models to simulate the relationship between magma and host-rock will be
implemented by RU-09. Their aims are: understanding the pre-eruptive dynamics of
magmas, considering also the role of the arrival of new gas-rich magma into the “reservoir”;
evaluating the effects of external perturbations of the stress in triggering magma convection
and pressurization; estimating the effects on measured geophysical parameters induced by
the simulated dynamics. This activity will be performed by using finite element numerical
codes partially implemented and improved in previous INGVDPC Projects.
iii) RU-02 will implement numerical geotechnical models to evaluate the critical
conditions able to generate flank instability. This approach will consist of a 3D modeling,
successfully applied at Stromboli. This activity is aimed at defining the limit conditions for
static and dynamic (magma-induced) equilibrium, as well as the possible failure surfaces,
considering the different of various instability factors. These models will be partly based on
the parameters defined in WP-4A.
Particular attention will be given to study the role of porewater pressures on the
instability of the flanks of the volcano, especially throughout the activities at the point i) and
iii). In fact, porewater pressures changes have been suggested as one of the possible triggers
for flank slip at many volcanoes (e.g. Kilauea, Capo Verde, Canaries; Cervelli et al., 2002,
Elsworth and Day, 1999).
WP-4C) Analogue models (Responsible: C. Giunchi )
Analogue models of flank instability will be performed to evaluate the possible role of
topography, regional tectonics, magma emplacement (both dikes, at surface, and diapir-like
bodies, at depth), presence of decollements or anisotropies (RU-1). These models will be
validated by parallel-run numerical models (RU-1), sharing the same boundary conditions,
for a better validation. Subsequently, the models will be compared to other numerical modes
(UR-2, 8, 9, 11) and to the natural case (as derived from the constraints of Task 1 and Task
2), proposing a general comprehensive scenario relating flank slip to possible triggering
factors.
Task 5. Hazard (Responsible: R. Azzaro)
RU Participating: Raffaele Azzaro (RU-04), Giuseppe Puglisi (RU-11), all UR
This Task will deliver the products aimed at assessing the hazard deriving from the flank
dynamics and indicating the improvement/modification of monitoring system and
surveillance activities to reduce such hazard. The activities of this Task are grouped into 3
Work-Packages (WP): WP-5A (Seismic Hazard) and WP-5B (Integrated hazard) and WP5C
(Results for monitoring/surveillance activities).
WP-5A) Seismic Hazard
Seismic hazard is, by far, one of the most relevant natural hazards of the eastern and
southern flanks of Mt. Etna. Although the magnitudes of the earthquakes has not exceeded 5,
destructive events are relatively frequent (on average, the X degree of EMS on the eastern
flank is reached every 20 years), due the shallow sources. RU-04 is responsible for the
activities aimed at assessing the seismic hazard. The characterization of the seismic potential
of the active faults on the eastern flank will contribute to define the more hazardous zones.
The seismic potential will be evaluated by using both deterministic and
probabilistic approaches, partially based on the results of Task 2 (for the dimension of the
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faults) and Task 3 (for the estimation of the b-value of the Gutemberg-Richter
relationship). Another preparatory study for seismic hazard assessment concerns the
definition of the intensity decay, which will be achieved by probabilistic techniques based
on appropriate analysis of earthquake database (which, in this project, will be extended up
to XVII century). Two types of seismic hazard maps will be delivered: a set of seismic
hazard maps, in terms of macroseismic intensity, for exposure times ranging from 5 to 50
years, and a set of time-dependent seismic hazard maps, computed for a few selected
seismogenic faults of the eastern flank, by applying a method adopted in the previous
INGV-DPC seismologic projects.
WP-5B) Integrated hazard
In this WP an analysis of the hazard deriving from the dynamics of the flanks of Etna
will be performed. Beside seismic hazard (see WP-5A), the other main flank hazards are
related to the opening of the fracture/eruptive fissure systems, the aseismic creep and the
triggering of landslides. All these types of hazard will be investigated by RU-11, in general
using information deriving from Tasks 2, 3 and 4. Furthermore, in this WP a preliminary
evaluation will be performed, to assess a probabilistic hazard by using the “event tree”
approach, in cooperation with LAVA project.
The “unstable” portion of Mt. Etna is bounded to the west, by the NE and S rifts. Their
activity, controlling the shallow rise of magma in the volcano, shows significant
relationships with flank dynamics. The analyses of Task 3 and 4 will be integrated with a
statistical analysis of the actual fracture/eruptive fissure system, to define the most suitable
areas of the volcano where they may occur. This activity will benefit of the joint researches
carried out in the frame of the LAVA project, based on probabilistic approaches, aimed at
defining the probability of opening of new vents. However, in this project, only the
relationships between volcanic activity and flank dynamics will be considered.
Flank instability deriving from different processes (magma, seismicity, porewater
pressure) will be also considered at smaller scales, defining the possible areas and
mechanisms controlling the instability. These smaller-scale instabilities may range from
collapses of portions of steepest flank of the volcano (e.g. collapses occurring in the Valle
del Bove) to localized creep-like movements (as those observed along the Pernicana Fault).
In particular, aseismic creep is relatively frequent on the eastern and southern flanks of
Mt. Etna, along several faults systems related to flank instability. Creep processes may not
have a primary importance for hazard assessment in uninhabited areas; however, they
become significant when affecting crucial infrastructures or properties. Therefore, one of
the aims of this activity will be the quantification (e.g. rate of movement, extent of the
affected areas) of the creep processes near the principal life-lines (e.g. the Catania-Messina
highway or the railway).
On the eastern flank, a few well-known faults are related to flank activity. These,
combined with local topographic conditions, enhance or trigger gravitational instabilities.
This type of hazard will be systematically considered, evaluated and adequately mapped.
The results of all the above described activities, together with the results of the seismic
hazard assessment, will be integrated to assess a final volcano-hazard evaluation.
WP-5C) Results for monitoring/surveillance activities
This WP will produce two deliverables of the project. All RUs will be involved into
their preparation.
The first deliverable consists of a document indicating the guidelines for an eventual
improvement of the monitoring system. This will consider all the results obtained in the
project and the simulations in particular (Task 4), indicating the areas were the major
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changes in the geophysical/geochemical signals are expected, and the integrated hazard
assessment provided in the above two WPs of Task 5.
The second deliverable consists of prototypal procedures to be used by the Operations
Centre of DPC in case of unrest along the unstable flanks, highlighting possible changes in
hazard as a function of the changes in the state of the flank dynamics. These include
volcanic hazard (opening of fissures and fractures), seismic hazard (occurrence of
earthquakes) and stability hazard (creep-like movements, sudden, mass movements,
localized landslides). In particular, if the project (Task 3) will identify specific
relationships between seismic and volcanic activity, the procedures should consider these
results, possibly by identifying “type-events”, trying to estimate of the type of hazard and
its occurrence probability, considering certain boundary conditions. The details of this
deliverable will be agreed with the DPC.
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First Year
Task 1 - GIS
1. Database structure assessment; Site realization; Database integration (UR-11).
WP-2A) Surface
1. Map of integrated (on-shore and offshore) structural features (1:50.000 scale)
and map of selected features (1:10.000) (UR-05 and UR-11);
2. Integration of all the shallow water available data (UR-05 and UR-11);
3. Report on the oceanographic cruise with the R/V Universitatis (UR-05);
4. Structural analysis derived from the integration of surface surveys, geodetic
data and soil gas surveys (UR-11);
5. Definition of the main tectonic features related to flank slip (UR-11).
WP-2B) Depth
6. Analysis of seismic data, mostly marine seismic profiles, in order to identify
and correlate the main seismostratigraphic units. Identification and correlation
of the main tectonic structures on seismic profiles (UR-03);
7. Mapping of the distribution of the large-scale mass-wasting deposits located
offshore the eastern flank of Mt. Etna (UR-03);
8. Build-up of a relative chronology of tectonic activity and stratigraphic events.
Attempt of correlation of the identified seismic units to the onshore
stratigraphic units of known age (UR-03);
9. Data analysis of seismic data sets; 1D Vp and Vp/Vs models (UR-06);
10. Physical model of the volcano, with the identification of zone of different
permeability (UR-07);
11. Elaboration of some off-shore seismic lines across the possible prolongation of
the Mascalucia-Trecastagni faults. Analysis and interpretation of elaborated
seismic lines (UR-09);
12. MT and SP data acquisition in the northeastern flank; ERT profiles (acquisition
and modeling) on the southern flank (UR-12);
13. Integrated interpretation of the previous resistivity model with velocity and
density models (UR-12).
WP-3A) Long-term
14. Extension of the macroseismic catalogue from ≈1650 to 1831 (UR-04);
15. Analyses on fault behavior: strain release and b value (UR-04);
16. New insights about self organized critical (SOC) behaviors of volcanic areas
(UR-10);
17. Preliminary definition of the main eruptive events and their volcanological
features related to the flank dynamic (UR-11).
275
WP-3B) Short-term
18. New algorithms to process continuous GPS and seismic signals (UR-10);
19. Petrologic data set of selected volcanics from Summit Craters (UR-11).
Task 4. Modeling
WP-4A) Definition of the parameters.
20. Rock mechanical characterization of selected sites for modeling activities.
Physical and mechanical characterization of the main Etna lithotypes, and
definition of lithotechnical units (UR-02 and UR-08);
21. Microstructural characterization of the natural lithologies investigated (UR-08);
22. Definition of secondary seismic anisotropy (Voids space+texture) (UR-08);
23. Petrologic study of products of selected recent eruptions (UR-09);
24. Estimate of relevant pre-eruptive conditions within magmatic reservoirs feeding
recent eruptions. Development of combined analytical methods to obtain
detailed zoning profile in minerals (UR-09);
25. Inversion of time-dependent relaxation models by using GPS data time series
(UR-11).
WP-4B) Numerical models
26. First stress-strain numerical models of the unstable Etna flanks (UR-02);
27. Preliminary 3D FE model of the unstable flanks of Mt. Etna. Study of the role
of different sources (summit eruptions, deep pressurized reservoirs, regional
tectonic stresses) on the structural discontinuities and flank instability (UR-08);
28. System definition for the simulations of magma and rock dynamics. First
simulations on magma/rock dynamics (UR-09);
29. New algorithms to compute the Coulomb stress changes in the eastern flank of
Mt Etna (UR-10);
30. Developing and testing the FEM geodetic inversion procedure and numerical
code for evaluating the viscoelastic deformation (UR-11).
WP-4C) Analogue models
31. Set up of the experimental apparatus for analogue modeling (RU-01);
32. Definition of the input parameters (derived from WP 2B and 4A) and
production of the experiments simulating flank slip. Run of the numerical
experiments (RU-01).
Task 5. Hazard
33. Seismic potential of faults: deterministic approaches (RU-04);
34. New probabilistic relationships of intensity attenuation (RU-04).
35. Preliminary results of the parameterization of creep and landslide areas for
volcano-structural hazard evaluations (RU-11);
276
Second Year
Task 1 - GIS
36. Data representations, web interfaces, GIS; Final documentations; manuals (UR11);
37. Collection of the data sets for populating the database (all RU).
WP-2A) Surface
38. Report on scuba and ROV survey on selected targets (UR-05);
39. Characterization of the nature of possible mud volcanoes in the offshore
Pernicana Fault (UR-05);
40. Mapping and characterization of the tectonic elements cropping out on the
coastal zone (on land and offshore) (UR-05);
41. Analysis of the samples collected in the first-year cruise, and of all the collected
geophysical data (UR-05);
42. Interpretation of the offshore structural elements and of tectonic/large-scale
instability features possibly driving the movement of the eastern flank of the
volcano (UR-05);
43. Correlation between on- and off-shore tectonic structures and their relationship
to the eastern flank dynamic (UR-11).
WP-2B) Depth
44. Mapping of fault surfaces at depth on seismic profiles, to outline fault
geometry. Interpretation of tectonic structures at a large scale (UR-03);
45. Depth conversion of selected seismic profiles, to obtain a realistic geometry of
fault planes and a more accurate volume estimate of the offshore mass-wasting
deposits (UR-03);
46. Tectonic model describing the deformation affecting the offshore flank within
the regional tectonics frame (UR-03);
47. 3D numerical models of P- and S- wave velocities and of Qp and Qs (UR-06);
48. Precise locations on selected earthquake clusters occurring nearby seismogenic
structures (UR-06);
49. Database of earthquake locations relative to the period 2003-2004, including the
2004 summit eruption (UR-06);
50. Vertical and spatial distribution of the main fluid pathways (UR-07);
51. Elaboration of some seismic lines across the possible off-shore continuation of
the Pernicana Fault. Analysis and interpretation of elaborated seismic lines.
Correlation of observed structures with other seismic surveys (UR-09);
52. MT data acquisition along the Mascalucia-Acireale profile (UR-12);
53. Map of distribution of the geoelectrical strikes at different estimated depth (UR12);
54. SP map and Resistivity model (2D o 3D) for the areal survey in NE Rift area
(UR-12);
55. Resistivity model across the MT profile Mascalucia-Acireale and its integrated
interpretation of the profile (UR-12).
277
WP-3A) Long-term
56. 1. Analyses on fault behavior: occurrence models, Montecarlo simulations of
earthquake catalogues (UR-04);
57. Algorithm for measuring time series similarities, classification and clustering
(UR-10);
58. Recognition of the eruptive processes of the past 3-4 centuries related to the
activation of the main seismogenic faults (UR-11).
WP-3B) Short-term
59. Simulation of the effect of of the variation of the mass rate and/or pressure on
shallow geochemical manifestations during the past volcanic activity (UR-07);
60. Simulation of the effects of fluid mass rate and/or pressure on rock
characteristics (UR-07);
61. Map of directions of polarization. Attenuation of volcanic LP earthquakes (UR08);
62. Pattern recognition techniques to analyze multivariate time-series (UR-10);
63. Time-related petrologic sequence correlated with other temporally constrained
data-set concerning geology, geophysics and geochemistry of gases (UR-11);
64. Results of the review and the re-interpretation of eruptive and deformative
events during the period 1993-2004 (detailed results of specific volcanic events)
(UR-11).
Task 4. Modeling
WP-4A) Definition of the parameters.
65. Dynamic elastic moduli for lava flows at increasing effective pressure.
Microstructural characterization of the experimental products. Definition of
Primary seismic anisotropy (Texture) (UR-08);
66. Evaluation of elastic and geometrical parameters of the Pernicana area and
comparison with available geological and geophysical information (UR-11);
67. Petrologic study of products of relevant historical eruptions. Interpretation of
zoning profile in minerals. Reconstruction of the crystallization history within
the magma chamber (RU-08).
68. Comparison between numerical models and data from other research units on
deformation field for further development of numerical models, with different
input parameters (UR-02);
69. Definition of the geometry of the potential decollement surfaces (UR-02);
70. Simulations of magma/rock dynamics with external triggers, and definition of
the expected geophysical signals (RU-08).
71. Refinement of the 3D FE model including anelastic rheologies. Application of
the 3D model predictions to the 2002-2003 and 2004-2005 activity (RU-08).
72. BEM modeling for simulation of relationships between pre-eruptive, eruptive
dynamics and superficial stress fields (UR-10);
73. Coulomb stress change maps on seismogenic structures (UR-11);
74. Numerical code for evaluating the thermoelastic deformation (UR-11);
75. FEM geodetic data inversion code (UR-11).
278
WP-4C) Analogue models
76. Interpretation and comparison of the analogue and the numerical experiments.
Quantitative comparison of the experiments to Etna (RU-01).
77. Definition of a general model of flank slip for Etna (all RUs involved in Task
4).
Task 5. Hazard
78. Seismic potential of faults: probabilities of occurrence of major earthquakes for
the given fault dataset (UR-04);
79. Seismic hazard maps in terms of macroseismic intensity for different exposure
times (5, 10, 20, 30 and 50 years) (UR-04);
80. Time-dependent seismic hazard maps (macroseismic intensity, exp. time 5, 10,
20, 30 and 50 years) (UR-04).
81. Map of distribution of the fracture and eruptive fissure systems of recent
volcanic events (UR-11).
WP-5C) Results for monitoring/surveillance activities
82. Integration of all the collected data and final volcano-structural hazard
evaluations (UR-11, with all RUs).
83. Prototypal procedures to be used by the Operations Centre of DPC in case of
unrest along the unstable flanks, highlighting possible hazard as a function of
the boundary conditions.
279
TABLE MAN/MONTHS
RU
Principal
Responsibles
Task1
Acocella,
Battaglia
@
UniMi,
Apuani,
@
UniMiB,
Tibaldi,
RU-3
CNR-ISMAR
Argnami,
@
RU-4
INGV-CT,
INGV-BO,
INGV-MI-PV,
Uni_Si, Uni-Ct,
CNR-IMATI
Azzaro,
Albarello,
Barbano,
Camassi,
D’Amico V.
@
RU-5
Uni-Rm1, UniCt,
Uni-Bo,
INGV-CT,
CNR-IGAG,
MBARI,
Monterey, USA
Chiocci,
Bosman,
Coltelli
@
@
35
RU-6
INGV-CT,
INGV-CNT,
Uni-Na, CSICMadrid, UniSavoie
Cocina, Patané,
Chiarabba, De
Gori, Got
@
@
57
RU-7
INGV-PA
Federico,
Favara, Gurrieri
@
@
RU-8
INGV-RM1,
INGV-CT,
INGV-OV,
Uni-Bo, ETH
Zurich,UCL
London
Giunchi,
Rovelli,
Vinciguerra,
Bonafede,
Bianco
@
RU-9
INGV-PI,
INGV-RM1,
Uni-Fi, Uni-Pi,
Univ.College
Dublin
Mazzarini,
Pareschi,
Pompilio,
Saccorotti,
Longo, Favalli
@
RU-10
Uni-CT, INGVCT
Nunnari
@
RU-11
INGV-CT, UniNA, Uni-Bo
Puglisi,
Bonaccorso,
Bonforte,
Branca, Burton,
Reitano
@
@
RU-12
UNI-BA
Siniscalchi,
Loddo
Schiavone
@
@
RU-1
RU-2
Total
Institutions
UniRm3,
Uni-Rm1,
Uni-Leeds
(UK),
Royal
Halloway,
London (UK)
Task2
Task3
@
Task4
Task5
@
@
44
@
@
35
@
@
@
@
@
Month/ p.
cofunded
requested
18
1
52
1 +19*
1 + 12*
20
@
@
72
2 + 9*
@
@
36
2
@
@
@
20
@
@
@
78
2
35
2
502
51
@
280
Mesi p.
Project V4 – FLANK. Financial Plan for the First Phase (Euros).
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
19850
0,00
74900
0,00
168400
0,00
47100
0,00
72970
0,00
42580
0,00
425800
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Totale
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
Project V4 – FLANK. Financial Plan for the Second Phase (Euros).
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
15850
0,00
59390
0,00
112300
0,00
16500
0,00
69830
0,00
30430
0,00
304300
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Totale
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
281
Project V4 – FLANK. Total Financial Plan, First + Second Phase (Euros).
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
35700
0,00
134290
0,00
280700
0,00
63600
0,00
142800
0,00
73010
0,00
730100
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Totale
282
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
Project V4 –FLANK. Table RU’s and related funding request.
N. RU
RU-1
RU-2
RU-3
RU-4
RU-5
RU-6
RU-7
RU-8
RU-9
RU10
RU11
RU12
Istituz.
Resp UR
UNI-RM3
UNI-MI
CNR-BO
INGV-CT
UNI-RM3
INGV-CT
INGV-PA
INGV-RM1
INGV-PI
Acocella
Apuani
Argnani
Azzaro
Chiocci
Cocina
Federico
Giunchi
Mazzarini
UNI-CT
Nunnari
INGV-CT
Puglisi
UNI-BA
Siniscalchi
Personale
Missioni
2nd
1st
1st
phase phase phase
8000
3400
1850 1850 3700
2500 2000 5000
5000
1000 1000 6000
3000
2600
8800
4400
3000
9000
3000
3000
3100
Studi,ricerche
Costi
e prestazioni
amministrativi
professionali
Servizi
Materiale
durevole
e di consumo
Spese
indirette
2nd
1st
2nd
1st
2nd
1st
2nd
1st
2nd
1st
2nd
phase phase phase phase phase phase phase phase phase phase phase
8000
17000 17000
6500 6500 3500 3500
3490
16600
6820 380 2980
430
3700
6800 8800
4300 2300 1850 1850
4000
12000 5000
3000 7000 2500 2000
5000
38600 12500 5000 5000 5400 2500
3000
16000
2500 4000 1950 5050 3050 1450
3000
10500 10500 1500 1500
5200
12000 4500
14400 11100 4400 2600
8000
23000 20000
5500 5000 4500 4000
3000
32000 32000
2900 12000 8000
13000 11000
1000
6000
1000
4000
4000
10000 15000 4900
4100
2500 8000 5000
20000 14000
4000 1000 4000 2500
4000
168400 112300 47100 16500 72970 69830 42580 30430
TOTAL 19850 15850 74900 59390
GRAND TOTAL:730100
283
284
285
286
Project V4 - FLANK
Hazard connected to the flank dynamics of Etna
RU V4/01
Scientific Responsible: Valerio Acocella, Researcher, Dipartimento Scienze Geologiche
Università Roma Tre, Largo S.L. Murialdo, 1, 00146, Roma. E-mail:
[email protected], tel: 06-57338043, fax: 06-54888201.
RU Composition:
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Valerio Acocella
Researcher
Roma Tre
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
Man/Months 2nd
phase
3
Man/Months 1st
phase
1
2
3
Man/Months 2nd
phase
1
2
3
11
11
Participants
Position
Institution
Erika di Giuseppe
Gabriele Morra
Maurizio Battaglia
Gianluca Norini
PhD student
Post-doc
Associate
Professor
Post-doc
Univ. Roma Tre
Univ. Roma Tre
Univ. Roma La
Sapienza
Universidad de
Mexico
Marco Neri
Boris Behncke
Daniele Carbone
Researcher
Post-doc
Researcher
INGV Catania
INGV Catania
INGV Catania
0
0
0
0
0
0
Eleonora Rivalta
Post-doc
1
1
Agust
Gudmundsson
Riccardo Lanari
Full Professor
Univ. Of Leeds
(UK)
Royal Halloway,
London
CNR IREA,
Napoli
1
1
0
0
Senior researcher
Task 4
WP-4C) Analogue models.
The researchers participating to the Roma Tre UR will focus on the development of
analogue models of flank instability at Etna. When appropriate (e.g., to study the influence
of the development of mechanical and thermal porewater pressure on flank
destabilization), we will integrate the analogue models with analytical models. The two
main research problems that we will address in this part of project are (a) the identification
of the physical parameters controlling the stability of the volcano flanks and (b) the
threshold values of these parameters. Our aim is to understand the physics of these
processes, to be able to forecast they short and/or long term behavior.
The set up will be constrained from existing geophysical and geological data, in order to
produce models that are as close as possible to the natural case. In particular, the
distribution of the lithotypes characterizing the unstable flank (RUs of task 2B), as well as
287
their main mechanical and rehological properties (RUs of task 4A), will be considered
crucial input parameters for the models.
In general, this set of models is expected to use a cone of dry sand (Etna analogue)
and Newtonian silicone (magma or decollement analogue), accordingly with previously
proposed scaling procedures (Acocella, 2005, and references therein). The exact
rheological properties of these materials will depend upon the input parameters obtained
for the natural case. The influence of several factors (magma intrusion, topography,
regional tectonics, basal decollement, anisotropies within the cone, in collaboration with
the RUs from Tasks 2 and 3) will be considered to quantify the role of each of the factors
controlling the slip of the flank.
A few tens of models will be run, varying one parameter and maintaining the others
fixed each time. High resolution laser scanning of the surface of the experiments will
permit to appreciate the geometry and kinematics of the main structures characterizing the
deformation of the flank of the volcano analogue. The obtained experimental results will
be compared with the available field, bathymetric, seismic GPS and InSAR data (RUs of
task 2A and 2B), concerning the geometry and kinematics of the main structures and
portions of the unstable flank. This comparison will be aimed at studying and
understanding any similarity or difference between the observed and modelled geometric
and kinematic features of the unstable flank. Particular care will be given in evaluating the
mechanism of propagation of the slip of the unstable flank under extreme triggering events
(dike and/or magma emplacement).
The simulation of the development of mechanical and thermal fluid pressure due to the
intrusion of dikes is an additional, important process, which needs to be tested in the
experiments. Mechanically induced fluid pressures are controlled by non-dimensional
groupings of intrusion rate, dike thickness, fluid permeability, and hydraulic diffusivity of
the host rock, and fluid viscosity and overpressure. Thermally induced pore fluid pressures
are modulated by the differential magma temperature, bulk skeletal modulus, and thermal
expansion coefficient, with migration rates of the pressure pulse controlled by thermal and
fluid diffusivities. Most of these processes go beyond the ordinary modeling approach,
requiring an exceptional and challenging set-up and suitable materials. Moreover, severe
technical limitations in the planning and build-up of a proper apparatus are expected. For
these reasons, analogue models do not appear suitable, in terms of costs, available time and
benefits, to investigate these specific processes. To infer the relative importance of water
pressure, we will integrate and extend the analogue models with appropriate analytical
models (e.g., Ouyang et al., 2007; Brodsky and Kanamori, 2001; Elsworth and Day, 1999;
Delaney, 1982), applying to the analytical models the same initial and boundary conditions
of the analogue experiments. These models will be run in agreement with University of
Roma La Sapienza and Royal Halloway (London). Such a modeling is meant to represent a
significant step forward with regard to analogue models of volcano spreading previously
applied to Mt. Etna (Merle and Borgia, 1996).
The results from these models will be incorporated in the database of the project, in
the form of tables and diagrams, reporting the role of each parameter and the relationships
between parameters.
1) Set up of Experimental apparatus.
2) Definition of the input parameters (in collaboration with RUs from Tasks 2B and
4a) and production of the experiments simulating flank slip. Set-up of the analytical
models.
288
1) Interpretation of the analogue and analytical experiments. Quantitative comparison
of the experiments to Etna (in collaboration with RUs of task 2A and 2B).
2) Definition of a general model of flank slip for Etna (in collaboration with the other
RUs).
First year
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
8000
0,00
17000
0,00
0,00
6500
0,00
3500
0,00
0,00
35000
0,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
Totale
Second year
Categoria di spesa
0,00
8000
0,00
17000
0,00
0,00
6500
0,00
3500
0,00
35000
0,00
Totale
0,00
289
Total
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
16000
0,00
34000
0,00
0,00
13000
0,00
7000
0,00
70000
0,00
Totale
0,00
Valerio Acocella graduated in Earth Sciences at the University “La Sapienza” of Roma, in
1993. In 2000, he achieved a 4-years Ph.D. at the University of Siena. He is permanent
researcher in Structural Geology at the University of Roma Tre since 2006.
His main research interests include: relationships between tectonics and volcanism, at the
regional and local scale; pluton emplacement; active tectonics and fault interaction.
His main methodologies include: field analysis, analogue models, numerical models,
remote sensing.
The areas of main interest include: Italy (Ischia, Campi Flegrei, Vesuvio, Stromboli, Etna,
Vulsini, Amiata), Iceland, Ethiopian Rift and Afar, Taupo Volcanic Zone, NE Japan,
Kamchatka, Central Andes, Easter Island.
Valerio Acocella is author or co-author of 64 papers (55 published, 1 in press, 8 submitted)
on peer-reviewed journals, from 1999 to 2007. Of these, 57 are on international journals,
associated with a h-index = 14. Valerio Acocella is also author or co-author of 130
abstracts and extended abstracts related to presentations, mostly at international meetings,
from 1997 to 2007, of which 8 are solicited keynote lectures.
Valerio Acocella teaches “Volcano-Tectonics” (from 2007) and “Analogue Modelling”
(from 2002) at Roma Tre. In 2004 he has been visiting professor at the Graduate School of
Science, Tohoku University, Japan.
Acocella V. (2005) Modes of sector collapse of volcanic cones: insights from analogue
experiments.
Journal
of
Geophysical
Research, 110, B2, B02205,
doi:
10.1029/2004JB003166.
Acocella V. (2007) Understanding caldera structure and development: an overview of
analogue models compared to nature. Earth Science Reviews, 85, 125-160.
290
Acocella V., Behncke B., Neri M. D’Amico S. (2003) Link between major flank slip and
2002-2003 eruption at Mt. Etna (Italy). Geophysical Research Letters 30, 24, 2286,
doi: 10.1029/2003GL018642.
Neri M., Acocella V., Behncke B. (2004) The role of the Pernicana Fault System in the
spreading of Mt. Etna (Italy) during the 2002-2003 eruption. Bulletin of Volcanology,
66, 417-430. DOI: 10.1007/s00445-003-0322-x.
Battaglia M, Segall P., Roberts C.W. (1999) Magma intrusion beneath Long Valley caldera
confirmed by temporal changes in gravity. Science, 285, 2119-2122.
291
Project V4 - FLANK
RU V4/02
Scientific Responsible: Tiziana Apuani, Researcher, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra “A.
Desio”, Università degli Studi di Milano, Via Mangiagalli 34, 20133 Milano, e-mail:
[email protected], tel: 0250315565, cell: 3387453092, fax: 0250315494
RU Composition:
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Tiziana Apuani
Researcher
UNIMI
Man/Months 1st
phase
4
Man/Months 2nd
phase
4
Man/Months 2nd
phase
1
1
Participants
Position
Institution
Gianpaolo Giani
Giovanni Pietro
Beretta
Marco Masetti
Andrea Merri
Alessandro Tibaldi
Full Professor
Full Professor
UNIMI
UniMI
Man/Months 1st
phase
1
1
Researcher
PhD Student
Associate
Professor
Researcher
UNIMI
UNIMI
UNIMIB
1
3
3
1
3
2
UNIMIB
5
5
Claudia Corazzato
Task 4
WP-4A) Definition of the parameters
i) Main mechanical and rheological parameters of the lithotypes in the unstable flank.
In order to provide the dataset of the physical and mechanical properties of the volcanic
rock masses of Etna flank, representing one of the main input data for numerical
modelling, a geomechanical characterization of the involved rock masses will be
performed, and lithotechnical units will be defined. This will be done by integrating the
results of laboratory geotechnical and geomechanical tests already performed by our
research group and others on the same lithotypes, including also the extensive bibliography
now available on both volcanic and sedimentary deposits, with new data of rock mass
characterization. In the case that other research units dealt with laboratory characterization
of physical properties of Etna rocks, we will be ready to integrate also their data in our
models (second year of the project). The new rock-mechanical data will be systematically
collected in the eastern and south-eastern Etna flank, as well as in the sub-etnean clays,
through dedicated structural and geomechanical field surveys. The quantitative description
of representative rock masses, according to the International Society for Rock Mechanics
procedure (I.S.R.M., 1981), will comprise: number joint set, orientation, spacing,
persistence, roughness, well strength, aperture, filling, seepage of the main recognised
discontinuities, in order to evaluate the Rock Mass Rating value (RMR) (Bieniawski,
1989) and the Geological Strength Index (GSI) (Hoek et al., 2002). Those data will be
implement into the database (Task 1).
In the case that other research units dealt with laboratory characterization of physical
properties of Etna rocks, we will be ready to integrate also their data in our models (second
year of the project).
292
Stress-strain and stability analyses contribute to identify the critical conditions necessary to
generate instability at volcanoes, as well as the geometry of the failure surfaces, and
kinematics and size of unstable portions of the edifice, under different instability factors.
The numerical modeling will be performed using the bi- and tri-dimensional finite
difference geomechanical simulation codes FLAC and FLAC 3D (Itasca), that we already
successfully applied to Stromboli and other volcanoes. These codes assume a subdivision
of the mass in elementary cells, enable to include a wide range of information on both the
volcano and structures at their real scale and allow to choose appropriate constitutive laws.
They model a non-linear system evolving in calculation steps: the main advantage of this
analysis is that deformation and progressive failure can be recognised, plasticization areas
and creep deformation evidenced, geometry and volumes of the rock masses in critical
conditions identified.
The geological model used for the stress-strain numerical modelling focused at stability
analysis will incorporate data already existing on Etna, such as DEM, three-dimensional
distribution of main lithological units, seismic, structural and marine geology data,
hydrogeological features, as well as the complete geotechnical dataset of the physicalmechanical properties for the volcanic rock masses of Etna flank (§ 4.A i). The analyses
will include emerged and submerged slope, considering the role of groundwater and porewater pressures, on the base of the response of superficial and deep investigation carried
out by the Task 2 (WP-2A and WP-2B).
Bi and tri-dimensional stress-strain analyses of the eastern and south-eastern flank will be
performed to define the shallow and deep-seated slope deformation scenarios related to
different failure surfaces, as a response to different instability factors, whose role will be
evaluated. Pore-water pressurization will be considered as one of the possible triggering
factor for instability.
Particular interest will be posed in deformation induced by tectonic seismicity, pore
pressures increments, magmatic pressures associated to sheet intrusions with different
possible geometries, or a combination of these factors, taking into account the geological
framework of the involved units and the tectonic structures that affect the volcanic edifice
and its substrate. Limit Equilibrium methods will be also applied to initially explore
instability factors. A strong constrain on the results of modelling will be obtained thanks to
a continuous comparison with field data.
Through 2-D and 3-D numerical simulation, based as much as possible on field and
laboratory data, we will reconstruct the stress field of the main unstable sectors of the
eastern and south-eastern Etna flank, in relation with possible different hydrogeological
conditions, and/or magmatic intrusions into the volcanic edifice. This would also
contribute in understanding possible phenomena of passive magma rising along the main
N-S dyking zone of Etna.
The results of the proposed research program will contribute to the development of TASK
5, especially “5.B Integrated hazard – (iv) Volcanic-induced hazard related to flank slip,
including the effect on the rise and emission of magma; (v) Flank stability-induced hazard
related to fault activity, including the possible development of landslides; (viii) Suggestions
for any improvement of the monitoring system.
It will be possible to compare the results of our analyses with those obtained from the
INGV monitoring activity concerning the superficial deformations, e.g. radar
interferometry and geodesy (for which a close cooperation with the other research units is
293
expected), in order to validate geometries, causes and scenarios of instability, and supply
first indications for hazard assessment and monitoring advice.
1. Rock mechanical characterization of selected sites;
2. Physical and mechanical characterization of the main Etna lithotypes, and
definition of lithotechnical units;
3. First stress-strain numerical models of the unstable Etna flanks.
4. Comparison between numerical models and data from other research units on
deformation field;
5. Further development of numerical models, with different input parameters;
6. Definition of the geometry of the potential decollement surfaces;
7. Improved models of the eastern and south-eastern Etna flanks.
First year
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
3400
16600
,00
0,00
6820
,00
2980
,00
Totale
0,00
29800
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Second year
Categoria di spesa
294
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
3490
0,00
0,00
0,00
380
0,00
430
00
Totale
0,00
0, 430000
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Total
Categoria di spesa
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
6890
16600
,00
00
0,00
7200
00
3410
0
Totale
0,00
034100
Present position: Researcher (GEO/05), Dept. Earth Sciences, UNIMI. 1993: Graduated cum
laude in Earth Sciences, UNIMI. 1996: PhD in Engineering Geology, UNIMI. 1994-1995:
research at Imperial College of London, Centre for Engineering Geology. 1998-2000: post-doc
fellowship in Earth Sciences. 1998-2002: Professional engineering geologist; Assistant
Researcher in Engineering Geology, UNIMI and UNIMIB; CNR external collaborator.
Teaching: 1995-2005 Trainer, Engineering Geology, UNIMI. 2002-2007: Contract Professor,
Soil and Rock mechanics; UNIMI. Advisor/co-advisor of about 40 theses in Engineering
Geology. Published 25 scientific papers in nat./intern. peer-reviewed journals.
Research fields: geotechnical and geomechanical characterization of geomaterials; slope
stability analysis; numerical modelling. Current interest: Slope instability of active volcanoes
and related hazard: large flank collapses, debris flow phenomena; effect of hydrogeological
processes on slope stability.
Project coordination/participation: 2005-2007: coordinator of RU V2/17 (Milano) “Evaluation
of possible scenarios of deformation and dynamics of the Sciara del Fuoco” of the DPC-INGV
project V2. 2001-05: Thematic Leader of Rock and soil mechanics, geotechnics within
UNESCO-IUGS-IGCP project 455. 2000-2004: national GNV-INGV project “Stromboli
volcano hazard”, Milan RU “Reconstruction of the holocene deformation events of the Sciara
del Fuoco, Stromboli, and stability analysis” (coord. A. Tibaldi). Participation in several
geological researches for the control of slope instabilities: INTERREG III-A; CARIPLO
Valchiavenna Project; FIRST; GNDCI n. 21; IMONT INTERREG III-B “Alpine space”
295
Project ALPTER; IUGS-UNESCO-IGCP-Young Scientist n. 508, “Volcano collapse and fault
activity”; International Lithosphere Programme TASK II “New tectonic causes of volcano
failure and possible premonitory signals”.
1. Tibaldi A., Corazzato C., Apuani T., Cancelli A., 2003. Deformation at Stromboli
volcano (Italy) revealed by rock mechanics and structural geology. Tectonophysics,
361, 187-204.
2. Apuani T., Corazzato C., Cancelli A., Tibaldi A. 2005. Physical and mechanical
properties of rock masses at Stromboli: a dataset for flank instability evaluation.
Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, 64, 419-31, DOI
10.1007/s10064-005-0007-0.
3. Apuani T., Corazzato C., Cancelli A., Tibaldi A., 2005. Stability of a collapsing
volcano (Stromboli-Italy): limit equilibrium analysis and numerical modelling. Journal
of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 144, 1-4, 191-210.
4. Apuani, T., Merri A., Masetti M., 2007. Effects of volcanic seismic events on the
Stromboli stability by finite difference numerical modelling, In: Malheiro A.M. and
Nunes J.C. (Eds.) Volcanic Rocks. Taylor & Francis, The Netherlands. 101-109.
5. Apuani T., Corazzato C., 2008. Numerical Model of the Stromboli Volcano (Italy)
Including the Effect of Magma Pressure in the Dyke System. Rock Mechanics and
Rock Engineering, in press.
296
Project V4 - FLANK
RU V4/03
Scientific Responsible: Andrea Argnani, Senior Researcher, ISMAR-CNR, Via Gobetti
101, 40129 Bologna, email: [email protected], tel: 051-6398886, fax: 0516398940
RU Composition:
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Andrea Argnani
Senior Researcher
ISMAR-CNR
Participants
Position
Institution
Claudia Bonazzi
Marzia Rovere
Co.Co.Co.
Art. 23
ISMAR-CNR
ISMAR-CNR
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
Man/Months 2nd
phase
3
Man/Months 1st
phase
4
2
Man/Months 2nd
phase
5
2
Task 2
Several lines of evidence suggest that the submarine flank of Mt. Etna has been the site of
extensive gravity failure processes, operating at various scales; in some instances, very
scale scale slumps and slides can be observed. The relative chronology of these events
need to be unravelled, as well as their age with respect to the formation of the Valle del
Bove.
Key questions are:
i) what is the evolution in time of these extensive mass wasting deposits?
ii) how do these gravity failure events relate to the activity of the volcano?
iii) is there a deep tectonic drive to mass wasting on the eastern flank of Mt. Etna?
iii) how do these gravity failure events relate to the formation of the Valle del Bove?
An extensive data set of multichannel seismic reflection profiles, belonging to the RUs
V4/03 and V4/09, is now avalable to study the gravity failure events on the submarine flak
of Mt. Etna. Preliminary inspection to the seismic profiles of the various data sets suggests
that the areal extent and thickness of the various gravity failure deposits can be mapped
with some accuracy. This, in turn, should allow attempting to answer the questions
presented above.
WP-2A) Surface
Map with the traces of all the available marine seismic profiles, together with multibeam
morphobathymetric data, as a starting point. Two sets of medium to high resolution
multichannel seismic profiles acquired by ISMAR will be used for this study and
integrated with a set of seismic profiles acquired by the PISA-INGV R.U. The main
tectonic structures will be identified and correlated, in order to place them on a map.
Special attention will be drawn on the distribution of the large-scale mass transport
deposits already reported on the offshore flank of Mt. Etna (Argnani and Bonazzi, 2005;
Pareschi et al., 2006, GRL33, L13302). This large-scale gravity failure has been related to
297
a particularly large eruptive event, but it could also represent the superficial response of a
deeper collapse of the volcano flank. A comparison between the mass wasting deposits
identified through seismic profiles and the detailed multibeam morphobathymetry can be
particularly useful in order to assess the subsequent modification (erosion) operated by
bottom currents on the deposits.
WP-2B) Depth
A stratigraphic framework will be obtained by correlating the seismic units identified on
seismic profiles, and the main tectonic structures will be also identified and correlated. The
distribution in depth (in seconds, TWT) of the major fault planes will be highlighted. A
map showing the distribution and thickness (in seconds, TWT) of the mass wasting
deposits will be also prepared. Assessment of the relative age of the tectonic structures and
of main sedimentary units and attempt to correlate the sedimentary deposits to stratigraphic
units whose age is known, in order to build a chronology that allows a comparison with the
events affecting Mt. Etna on land.
If appropriate, depth conversion of key seismic profiles will allow to estimate a realistic
depth geometry of the tectonic structures, besides allowing a more accurate estimate of the
volume of the mass wasting deposits. The depth geometry of the tectonic structures located
near the Etna edifice can allow to check the eastward extent of the decollement surfaces
inferred to occur underneath the collapsing eastern flank of the volcano. It is worth noting
that the grid of seismic profiles that will be used for this study extends from the Messina
Straits to the Hyblean offshore, allowing a regional interpretation of the tectonic structures.
Such a large-scale overview can be particularly useful in order to outline which fault
patterns are due to regional tectonics and which may be related to Mt. Etna volcanotectonics, and can help assessing how the two patterns eventually interfere.
The tectonic and morphological features presented on the structural maps will contribute
to the GIS Data Base (Task 1). In particular, a map containing the tracks of multichannel
seismic profiles and of all the geological data obtained from seismic interpretation will be
prepared together with RU V4/09. We expect to be able to map the regional tectonic
structures, areal extent and thickness of the major gravity failure deposits, and structural
features related to gravity failure. The data will be also organized in a Geographical
Information System.
Finally, the structural geometry obtained from seismic profiles can offer additional
constraints for numerical and analogue modelling (Task 4) and for hazard assessment
(Task 5).
1. Assemblage of available data, mostly marine seismic profiles, on working maps.
2. Work on seismic data in order to identify and correlate the main
seismostratigraphic units.
3. Identification and correlation of the main tectonic structures on seismic profiles.
4. Mapping the distribution of the large-scale mass-wasting deposits located offshore
the eastern flank of Mt. Etna.
5. Build up of a relative chronology of tectonic activity and stratigraphic events.
6. Attempt of correlation of the identified seismic units to stratigraphic units of known
age located onshore.
298
1. Mapping of fault surface with depth on seismic profiles in order to outline fault
geometry.
2. Interpretation of tectonic structures at a large scale, in order to outline the fault
patterns which are due to regional tectonics and the patterns which may be related
to Mt. Etna volcano-tectonics, and eventually assessing how the two patterns
interfere.
3. Depth conversion of selected seismic profiles in order to obtain a realistic geometry
of fault planes and a more accurate volume estimate of the mass-wasting deposits
located on the offshore flank of Mt. Etna. Fault geometry can be used as input for
analogue and numerical modelling.
4. Tectonic model describing the deformation affecting the offshore flank of Mt. Etna
within the regional tectonics of the area.
First year
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
1850
0,00
3700
0,00
6800
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
4300
0,00
1850
0,00
0,00
18500
0,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
1850
0,00
3700
0,00
8800
0,00
Totale
Second year
Categoria di spesa
0,00
299
2300
0,00
1850
0,00
0,00
18500
0,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
3700
0,00
7400
0,00
15600
0,00
Totale
Total
Categoria di spesa
0,00
6600
0,00
3700
0,00
37000
0,00
Totale
0,00
Personal Details:Andrea Argnani, born on 18th September 1958 in Faenza (Italy), is
currently senior research scientists at ISMAR-CNR, Bologna, where he has been working
for the last 20 years, participating in about 20 research cruises. His main duties concern: i)
interpretation of geophysical data; ii) planning of marine geophysical surveys; iii) regional
geological syntheses; iv) structural geology, tectonics and geodynamics of the
Mediterranean area; v) kinematic and palaeogeographic reconstructions of the
Mediterranean region; vi) basin evolution and dynamics; vii) subsidence analysis. The
principal Lines of Research cover: i) Seismo-tectonics and tsunamigenic potential of
active tectonic structures in the Italian Seas, with special reference to the peri-Garganic
region, Eastern Sicily offshore, the Messina Straits and the Aeolian Islands; ii) Tectonics
and kinematics of the Mediterranean region from Mesozoic to Present; iii) Crustal-scale
tectonics of the northern Apennines and Po Plain: geodynamic implications and
neotectonics; iv) Tectonics of the African foreland; v) Tectonics and magmatism of the
Tyrrhenian backarc basin; vi) Palaeomagnetism and tectonics of the northern Apennines.
In the last 10 years he has been working on the following Research Projects: a) Scientific
coordinator of the Research Programme “The Taormina Fault and surroundings:
geophysical investigation”, DPC-INGV 2004-2006, Progetto S2, coord. D. Slejko and G.
Valensise. b) Scientific coordinator for the Marine Geological Sheets (subsurface geology)
Venezia, Ancona, Pescara, Vieste and Bari within the Project "Cartografia Geologica
Marina 1 : 250.000", APAT. c) 2000 - 2004: Scientific coordinator the Research
Programme GNDT Programma Quadro 2000-2002 “Evaluation of Geological Hazards in
the Seas around Italy”.
300
Argnani A., Serpelloni E., C. Bonazzi C. (2007) - Pattern of deformation around the central
Aeolian Islands: evidence from GPS data and multichannel seismics. Terra Nova, 19,
317-323..
Serpelloni E., Vannucci G., Pondrelli S., Argnani A., Casula G., Anzidei M., Baldi P.,
Gasperini P. (2007) – Kinematics of the Western Africa-Eurasia plate boundary from
focal mechanisms and GPS data. Geoph. J. International, 169, 1180-1200.
Argnani A. (2006) - Some Issues Regarding the Central Mediterranean Neotectonics. Boll.
Geofisica Teorica Applicata, 47, 13-37.
Argnani A. and Bonazzi C. (2005) - Tectonics of Eastern Sicily Offshore. Tectonics, 24,
TC4009, doi:10.1029/2004TC001656, 2005.
Vannucci G., Pondrelli S., Argnani A., Morelli A., Gasperini P. and Boschi E. (2004) - An
Atlas of Mediterranean Seismicity. Annali di Geofisica, suppl. vol. 47, 247-306.
301
Project V4 - FLANK
RU V4/04
Scientific Responsible: Raffaele Azzaro, Senior Researcher, Istituto Nazionale di
Geofisica e Vulcanologia-Sezione di Catania, Piazza Roma 2, 95123 Catania, email:
[email protected], tel: 095-7165821, fax: 095 435801
RU Composition:
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Azzaro Raffaele
Senior Researcher
INGV-CT
Participants
Albarello Dario
Barbano Maria S.
Camassi Romano
Position
Institution
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
Man/Months 2nd
phase
3
Man/Months 1st
phase
0.5
1
1
Man/Months 2nd
phase
0.5
1
1
Associate Professor UNI-SI
Associate Professor UNI-CT
Senior
INGV-BO
Technologist
Castelli Viviana
Researcher
INGV-BO
2
1
D’Amico Vera
Researcher
INGV- MI-PV
0.5*
0.5*
D’Amico Salvatore Researcher
INGV-CT
4
4
Maiolino Vincenza Researcher
INGV-CT
5
5
Musacchio Gemma Researcher
INGV-MI-PV
2
2
Peruzza Laura
Researcher
INOGS-TS
1
2
Privitera Eugenio
Senior Researcher
INGV-CT
3
3
Rotondi Renata
Senior Researcher
CNR IMATI-MI
2
2
Tuvè Tiziana
Researcher
INGV-CT
9*
9*
Zonno Gaetano
Senior Researcher
INGV-MI-PV
2
2
Task 1
All relevant dataset used for the analyses proposed hereinafter (e.g. historical earthquake
catalogue) and results produced in cartographic form (strain release maps, hazard maps
etc) will be available in a geo-referred format to be inserted into GIS system.
Task 3
WP-3A) Long term
A wide analysis on the pattern of long term seismicity in the volcano’s eastern flank will
be developed in order to investigate relationships with eruptive activity and flank
instability processes in a significantly long time-span (ca. the last 400 years). The research
will include the following points:
Improvement of the seismological dataset. The aim of this activity is to extend the 18322005 macroseismic catalogue of Mt. Etna earthquakes (Azzaro et al., 2000; 2002; 2006) as
far back 1600s, period in which large eruptions occurred. The investigation will be made
by exploring the a number of historical sources such as: i) seismological and
volcanological literature; ii) bibliographic and historiographic studies, repertories and
302
periodicals available for the area; iii) non-local repertories (journalistic sources and diaries)
chosen for their high informative potential. According to the methods and procedures of
the historical seismology (Camassi and Castelli, 2004), the collected information will be
classified and then critically analyzed to obtain the intensity data of the studied
earthquakes. Finally, each event will be parameterized (magnitude, epicentre etc) so that
the portion of the catalogue prior to 1832 may be compiled with the same criteria and
format of the existing directory. It must be stressed that the recent Italian seismic
catalogues (Camassi and Stucchi, 1997; Gruppo di Lavoro CPTI, 2004) cannot be used for
obtaining an organic picture of Etnean seismicity and investigating the evolution of the
sequences, since they adopt magnitude thresholds and space-time windows inappropriate
(events occurring within ± 30 km and ± 90 days with respect to a stronger shock are
discarded).
Fault behaviour. The analysis is aimed to characterize the behavior of the active faults in
the eastern flank over a centennial period. Although the occurrence of strong earthquakes
both during some flank eruptions (e.g. 1865, 1879, 1911, 2002) or independently may be
apparent from the catalogue, the seismic activity of some faults appears almost regularly
clustered and alternated between them during time, with a sort of return period. After a
validation of the seismotectonic model (Azzaro, 2004) – most of the structures appear
segmented into sections ruled by seismic, stick-slip behavior or continuous, stable-sliding
creep – and the association earthquake-causative fault (from evidence of coseismic surface
faulting and damage distribution), the study will focus on style of the seismic release
shown by single seismogenic structures or set of them (grouped for homogeneous seismic
zones if data are not sufficient) located in the eastern sector of the Mt. Etna.
Seismotectonic features and fault behavior will be investigated through the reconstruction
of the curves of seismic strain release and b value, and the verification of occurrence
models possible (time or slip predictable, variable slip, characteristic earthquake, etc).
Moreover, Montecarlo simulations will be performed in order to obtain synthetic
earthquake catalogues that can be associated to the faults; this method is very promising to
integrate the experimental sample for a good estimate of statistical properties, like mean
recurrence time and its intrinsic variation. All these analyses are expected to indicate how
much faulting processes may be related with eruptive dynamics (emplacement/intrusion of
dykes) or geodynamic processes at a larger scale (instability of the eastern flank, offshore
tectonics).
Task 5
WP-5A) Seismic hazard
Seismic potential of faults. The Timpe tectonic system has been responsible for most of the
largest earthquakes occurred in the Etna region during the last 200 years (e.g. S. Tecla fault
in 1865, 1914; Moscarello f. in 1865, 1911 etc). Even if the magnitudes of these very
shallow shocks did not exceed 4.9, destruction were not rare (on average every 20 years)
and intensities in the epicentral area reached values up to degree X EMS. Local
communities living in the eastern flank, the most densely urbanized sector of the volcano,
continuously suffer social and economic losses due to the very high occurrence frequency
of damaging earthquakes, usually neglected in the hazard assessment practice at a national
scale. A contribute for detailed mapping of the more hazardous zones is represented by the
characterization of the seismic potential of all the active faults occurring in the eastern
sector of the volcano. This feature will be investigated through three different methods.
Deterministic approach: the maximum expected magnitude is obtained i) by the calculation
303
of b value of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship, and ii) on the basis of the fault dimension
(field data from Tasks 2 and 3A) through a relationship specifically derived for the Etna
region, as already done in New Zealand (the relationship by Well and Coppersmith, 1994
is inadequate for volcanic areas). iii) Probabilistic assessment of the magnitude expected in
different exposure times (5, 10, 20, 30, 50 years).
Relationships of intensity attenuation. In volcanic areas the intensity decay (∆I) and its
variation as a function of the epicentral distance is still a crucial problem for seismic
hazard estimates. In this project computation of ∆I in the Mt. Etna area will be faced
through two probabilistic techniques based on methods by Rotondi and Zonno (2004;
2006) and Magri et al. (1994). Both the approaches will produce relationships to assess the
probability distribution of the intensity value at a site, given the epicentral intensity and the
site-epicenter distance. We will try to analyze the attenuation pattern also taking the source
effect into account (different attenuation trends with respect to the azimuth of the source).
The relationships will be used for the computation of seismic hazard at the site (see point
below).
Seismic hazard assessment. A first probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA)
recently carried out in the Mt. Etna region, indicates that the ‘local’ events represent a
significant source of hazard when short exposure times are considered (Azzaro et al.,
2008). The analysis, carried out in the framework of the previous project S1-DPC, has
been performed using a numerical procedure based on the extensive use of local
macroseismic information (Albarello and Mucciarelli, 2002). With this aim, the software
‘SASHA’ (D’Amico and Albarello, 2007) has been also developed. In practice, this
method uses the seismic histories to the site (i.e. the record of the observed/calculated
intensities at a given locality) to estimate the probability of exceedance of an intensity
value in different exposure times. In the present project, our purpose is to provide a
detailed mapping of the more hazardous zones of the eastern flank of the volcano by using
the extended historical earthquake database (see Task 3A), the new probabilistic
relationships of intensity attenuation (see point above), and investigating the effects of
different exposure times in the estimations. In particular, starting from the exposure time of
50 years (in a Poissonian model it corresponds to a return period of 475 years), that is used
as a standard in the calculations of the national seismic hazard map (MPS Working Group,
2004), the analysis will be extended to shorter exposure times (5, 10, 20 and 30 years) to
quantify the contribution of local seismogenic sources and/or site effects in influencing the
pattern of the seismic hazard in the area. Since the inhomogeneous distribution of inhabited
centers around the volcano, the hazard maps will be represented as continuous data on a
grid with a step of 1 km, in which each node represents the expected intensities with 10 %
probability of exceedance in a given number of years. On the other hand, as seismic hazard
estimates are expected to be differently influenced by the time elapsed since the last event,
time dependent approaches will be also applied to some well-known structures of the
Timpe fault system. Following the experience of the previous project S2-DPC on the
national scale, the analysis will be based on a renewal model using the Brownian Passage
Time (BPT) distribution, and results compared with those obtained with the stationary
assumption. Finally, according to several historical cases occurred in the eastern flank, we
propose to study the aspect of fault interaction by static stress re-distribution (i.e. Stein,
1999). If the increase or decrease in static stress is followed by a variation in the seismic
rate (by a time-dependent recovery), then the estimation of seismic hazard will be strongly
influenced.
304
1.
2.
3.
4.
Extension of the macroseismic catalogue from ≈1650 to 1831.
Analyses on fault behavior: strain release and b value.
Seismic potential of faults: deterministic approaches.
New probabilistic relationships of intensity attenuation.
1. Analyses on fault behavior: occurrence models, Montecarlo simulations of
earthquake catalogues.
2. Seismic potential of faults: probabilities of occurrence of major earthquakes for the
given fault dataset .
3. Seismic hazard maps in terms of macroseismic intensity for different exposure
times (5, 10, 20, 30 and 50 years).
4. Time-dependent seismic hazard maps (macroseismic intensity, exp. time as above).
5. Static stress simulations.
First year
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
2500
0,00
5000
0,00
12000
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
3000
0,00
2500
0,00
0,00
25000
0,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
2000
0,00
4000
0,00
Totale
Second year
Categoria di spesa
305
5000
0,00
0,00
7000
0,00
2000
0,00
0,00
20000
0,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
4500
0,00
9000
0,00
17000
0,00
Totale
Total
Categoria di spesa
0,00
10000
0,00
4500
0,00
45000
0,00
Totale
0,00
Scientific activity
(1) Studies aimed at recognising seismogenic faults and defining their behaviour by the
analysis of long-term seismicity. Active tectonics in the volcanic region of Mt. Etna using
earthquake surface faulting, fault creep and paleoseismology. Seismotectonic and
geodynamic modelling.
(2) Historical investigations on large and moderate earthquakes occurred in the region;
compilation of seismic catalogues and databases using macroseismic data, parametrization
of historical earthquakes.
(3) Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment using intensity data; evaluation of damage
scenarios from seismic history analyses.
Coordination activity
(1) Responsible for RU’s of projects funded by the Dipartimento di Protezione Civile:
• S1, upgrade and management of the seismic hazard map of Italy (2004-06);
• EDURISK, educational activities for mitigating seismic and volcanic risks (2002-04,
2004-06);
(2) Coordinator of the INGV working groups:
• TTC 5.1, Data Base and macroseismic methods;
• EMERGEO and QUEST, post-earthquake surveying teams for geological and
macroseismic effects.
306
Azzaro R. (2004) – Seismicity and active tectonics in the Etna region: constraints for a
seismotectonic model. American Geophysical Union, Geophysical monograph, 143, “Mt.
Etna: volcano laboratory”, A. Bonaccorso, S. Calvari, M. Coltelli, C. Del Negro and S.
Falsaperla (Eds.), 205-220.
Azzaro R., Barbano M.S., D'Amico S., Tuvè T., Albarello D. and D'Amico V. (2008) –
First studies of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment in the volcanic region of Mt.
Etna (Southern Italy) by means of macroseismic intensities. Boll. Geof. Teor. Appl., 49,
15 pp., in print.
Camassi R and Castelli V. (2004) – Looking for "new" earthquake data in the 17th-18th
century European "newssellers" network. J. Earth. Engineering, 8 (3), 335-359.
Pace B., Peruzza L., Lavecchia G., and Boncio P. (2006) – Layered Seismogenic Source
Model and Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Analyses in Central Italy. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am.,
96, 107-132.
Rotondi R. and Zonno G. (2004) – Bayesian analysis of a probability distribution for local
intensity attenuation. Ann. Geophys., 47, 5, 1521-1540.
307
Project V4 - FLANK
RU V4/05
Scientific Responsible: Francesco Latino Chiocci, Full Professor, Dipartimento Scienze
della Terra, Università di Roma “La Sapienza”, P.le A. Moro, 5 – 00185 Roma. e-mail:
[email protected], tel.: 06/49914938, 06/44585075 fax: 06 4454729
RU Composition:
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Chiocci Francesco
L.
Full Professor
University of
Rome La Sapienza
Participants
Position
Institution
Coltelli M.
Cavallaro D.
First Researcher
PhD Student
Casalbore
PhD Student
Fascetti A.
Contract Research
Bosman A.
Clague D.
Researcher
Senior Scientist
INGV – Catania
University of
Catania
University of
Bologna
University of
Rome La Sapienza
CNR - IGAG
MBARI,
Monterey, USA
Man/Months 1st
phase
1
Man/Months 2nd
phase
2
Man/Months 1st
phase
1
5
Man/Months 2nd
phase
1
5
5
5
3
3
2
0
2
0
Task 2
WP- 2A) Surface
Activity 1) A direct correlation between tectonic/large-scale instability feature onshore and
offshore will be realized, by using a) very high resolution swath bathymetry (HRSB)
collected in the framework of DPC-IGV V3_6 project; b) geological mapping of the
onshore coastal sector; c) scuba dives on specific targets in shallow water (<50m) selected
on HRSB data; d) ROV dives on specific targets in deeper water (>50m) selected on
HRSB data.
As already evident from the ongoing analysis, the structural framework of the coastal area
could be fully re-interpreted on the basis of the offshore morpho-structural setting. There
are, in fact, well detectable active fault systems, offsetting the seafloor of several meters up
to some tens of meters. What were previously interpreted as separate structural trends
could be re-interpreted as part of a same system, related to the large-scale instability of the
volcano eastern flank. Gas seepage would be testified, if the interpretation of mud
volcanoes on the shallow offshore of the Pernicana fault will be confirmed by direct
observation and sampling.
Activity 2) On the Etna offshore two oceanographic cruises were ruled out on 2006 and
2007. The results are extremely interesting, as the main structural domains were defined on
the basis of the morpho-structural setting and deep water tectonic/large-scale instability
feature were detected. Despite some 20 seafloor dredging were performed in the last cruise
308
and some more were realized in the past (1997 and 1999) by IIV-CNR, still most of the
interpretation based on the morpho-structural setting have to be validated, in order to
achieve a robust interpretation of the main tectonic unit building up the continental margin
(thrust chain, foredeep, shield volcano, ..). Therefore an oceanographic cruise will be
realized (possibly onboard of R/V Universitatis) to dredge and core the main morphostructural domains, with special emphasis on shield volcano, Chiancone, Riposto Ridge, as
well as of a depositional terrace whose presence (or absence) will be used to constrain the
recent tectonic activity of the different coastal sectors. All the geophysical data and
seafloor sampling collected in the past will be integrated. Collaboration with other unit will
be realized as well.
1. Map of integrated (on shore and off-shore) structural features (1:50.000 scale).
2. Map of selected features (1:10.000).
3. Integration of all data available in shallow water (scuba observations, HR seismic
data, HRSB, grab and core samples, side scan sonar sonographs).
4. Report on scuba and ROV survey on selected targets (if it will be possible, we will
perform part of this activity during the first year).
5. Report on the oceanographic cruise with the R/V Universitatis.
1. Map of the data collected in both previous surveys and first-year survey.
2. Report on scuba and ROV survey on selected targets.
3. Characterization of the nature of possible mud volcanoes in the offshore Pernicana
Fault.
4. Mapping and characterization of the tectonic elements cropping out on the coastal
zone (on land and offshore).
5. Analysis of samples collected in the first-year cruise, and of all the geophysical
data collected.
6. Interpretation of the off-shore structural elements and of tectonic/large-scale
instability features possibly driving the movement of the eastern flank of the
volcano.
First year
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
0,00
5000
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
0,00
38600
0,00
309
5000
0,00
5400
0,00
Totale
0,00
54000
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Second year
Categoria di spesa
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
5000
0,00
0,00
12500
0,00
5000
0,00
2500
0,00
Totale
0,00
25000
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Total
Categoria di spesa
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
10000
0,00
0,00
51100
0,00
10000
0,00
7900
0,00
Totale
0,00
79000
Full Professor at University of Rome “La Sapienza” since 2004., Born in Gubbio, 22 08
1959, Degree in Geology (110 with honours) and PhD in Earth Sciences at University of
Rome “La Sapienza”. Researcher at National Research Council (CNR) from 1988 to 1998,
Associated Professor at University of Rome from 1998 to 2004.
310
Participated to some 40 oceanographic cruises (half of them as chief scientist) mainly in
the Tyrrhenian Sea but also in the Red Sea, Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and Antarctica.
Chief Scientist on a EC-funded cruise to use TOBI deep-sea vehicle in the Tyrrhenian Sea
(EASS Program).
200-2006 Co-Leader of IGCP (International Geologic Correlation Program) Project #464
“Continental shelves during last glacial cycle. Knowledge and applications”.
2007-2011 Co-Leader of IGCP (International Geologic Correlation Program) Project #524
“Risk, Resources and Record of the Past on Continental”.
Project leader of MaGIC, a 5-year project (2007-2011) for mapping geohazards on the
shelves/slopes of the Italian Coasts.
Project Leader of PRIN project (2006-2008) on coastal landslide in Calabria
Scientific Director or Project Manager of geological mapping (1:50.000) of marine areas of
7 geological sheets.
Participates to European Projects TRANSFER (Tsunami Risk in European Seas) and
BEACHMED (Beach Nourishment of retreating sandy coastlines).
Member until 2006 of INGV steering committee of volcanological projects (involving
some 1000 researchers).
Co-Leader of a three-year (2000-2002) GNV National Project to study instability on the
flanks of Italian volcanic islands. In charge, for the National Civil Protection Agency, of
the researches for causes and consequences of the submarine landslide that caused a
tsunami wave in Stromboli on Dec.2002. Responsible of a 2 year research (2005-2007) to
study instability features on Etna volcano submerged flank.
Is in charge of search of relict sand on continental shelves to be used for beach
nourishment on long-term projects funded by Regione Lazio (1999-2007), Regione
Abruzzo (2000-2003) Regione Toscana (2005-2007) and Regione Basilicata (2005-2006).
Responsible of bi-lateral projects with Morocco (2004-2007) and Spain (1998-2000).
Is responsible of one of the five study areas of the National Project VECTOR (2006-2008)
to study the impact of future environmental changes on the Italian coasts.
Chiocci F.L., Martorelli E., Bosman A. (2003) Cannibalization of a continental margin by
regional scale mass wasting: an example from the central Tyrrhenian Sea. In: Submarine
Mass Movements and Their Consequences, J Locat and J. Mienert Eds., Kluver
Academic Publisher, 409-416.
D. Casas, H. Lee, G. Ercilla, Kayen R., Estrada F., Alonso B., Baraza J., Chiocci F.L:
(2004) "Sedimentary, geotechnical and physical characterization of the continental slope
and basin of the Bransfield Peninsula (Antarctic Peninsula)” Marine Georesources and
Geotechnology, 22 (4): 253-278
Tommasi P., Baldi P:, Chiocci F.L., Coltelli M., Marsella M., Pompilio M. Romagnoli C.
(2005) The landslide sequence induced by the 2002 eruption at Stromboli volcano.
Landslide - Risk analysis and sustainable disaster management, chapter 32: 251-258,
Springer Verlag
Chiocci F.L. and de Alteriis G. (2006) The Ischia debris avalanche: first clear submarine
evidence in the Mediterranean of a volcanic Island pre-historic collapse. Terra Nova 18
(3):
Chiocci F.L., Romagnoli C., Bosman A. (2008) Morphologic resilience and depositional
processes due to therapid evolution of the submerged Sciara del Fuoco (Stromboli
Island) after the December 2002 submarine slide and tsunami. Geomorphology, in press
311
Project V4 - FLANK
RU V4/06
Scientific Responsible: Ornella Cocina, Researcher, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e
Vulcanologia-Sezione di Catania, Piazza Roma 2, 95123 Catania, email: [email protected],
tel: 095-7165836, fax: 095-435801
RU Composition:
Man/Months
1st phase
2
Man/Months 2nd
phase
3
Institution
Man/Months
1st phase
Man/Months 2nd
phase
INGV-CT
Dept de
volcanologia,
CSIC, Madrid
INGV-CT
INGV-CNT
1
1
1
1
2
1
3
1
INGV-CNT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
Universitè de
Savoie
Universitè de
Savoie
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
University of
Napoli
INGV-CT
2
1
3*
1
2
1
3*
1
3
3
2
3*
6
2
3*
6
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Ornella Cocina
Researcher
INGV-CT
Position
Salvatore Alparone
Carmen Martinez
Arevalo
Researcher
Researcher
Graziella Barberi
Claudio Chiarabba
Pasquale De Gori
Salvatore Gambino
Elisabetta Giampiccolo
Jean Luc Got
Researcher
Senior
Researcher
Researcher
Technologist
Researcher
Lectures
Vadim Monteiller
PhD student
Antonino Mostaccio
Carla Musumeci
Adriano Nobile
Technician
Researcher
PhD student
Participants
Domenico Patanè
Senior
1
1
Researcher
Salvatore Spampinato
Senior
INGV-CT
3
3
Researcher
Andrea Ursino
Researcher
INGV-CT
2
2
Task2
WP-2B) Depth
In order to provide new insights into the relationship between the shallow feeding system
of the volcano and the dynamic behavior of its eastern sector the aim of the task is i) to
model the velocity and attenuation structure in the investigated area, through the
application of passive tomography techniques and ii) to perform a detailed analysis on the
seismogenetic structures located in the eastern flank, by mean of high precision locations
of “families” of seismic events.
312
Recent velocity and attenuation tomographic studies (Patanè et al., 2006, De Gori et
al.2005), performed during pre-eruptive and eruptive period, evidenced that the strongest
anomalies are mostly located in the central and eastern sectors of the volcano. Besides the
recognition of anomalies related to the magma intrusion, during the last recent lateral
eruptions (2001 and 2002-2003), the tomographic inversions highlight high Vp/Vs and low
Qp volumes in the eastern flank, whose interpretation is still debated (high fracturing,
presence of melt, fluid migration).
The stages in which the research will be undertaken are the following:
a) Data analysis: accurate 1D locations of the seismicity recorded during two selected
time period will be performed. The first period is related to the 2003-2004 time
interval, to investigate both on the velocity and attenuation structure before and during
the 2004 summit eruption. The second dataset is related to June-November 2005 time
period, during which a passive seismological experiment was carried out on the
volcano. During this period a temporary array of 23 digital broad-band seismic stations
were deployed around the volcano and near its top to integrate the permanent seismic
network. The installation of additional instruments, the use of broad-band 3-component
sensors, and more accurate arrival time picks will allow us to improve the spatial
resolution and the sharpening of the imaged structure during this time interval.
b) Velocity tomography: to define the 3D velocity structure we will firstly apply
SIMULPS code, which calculate the Vp and the Vp/Vs models (Thurber 1993,
Eberhart-Phillips, 1993 e Eberhart-Phillips e Reyners, 1997). The results will be
compared to those obtained applying another technique, related to the Double
Difference method using the finite difference scheme (Podvin and Lecomnte, 1991)
and the Tarantola-Valette approach (Monteiller et al., 2005) to compute the velocity
structure.
c) Attenuation Tomography: The definition of the Qp attenuation structure of the study
area will integrate the informations coming from the velocity tomographic inversions.
Being the attenuation a physical parameter sensitive to the thermal state of crust
volumes through which the seismic waves travel, the joint analysis of Qp, Vp and
Vp/Vs models will allows us to better constrain the physical parameters of the Mount
Etna plumbing system, in order to better identify local strong lateral heterogeneities
and/or fluid –filled cracked volumes.
d) High precision locations: The application of double difference techniques in the
velocity tomographic study, will produce more accurate relative event locations,
improving the spatial clustering of the seismicity. In order to better characterize the
seismogenic structures in the eastern flank of the volcano, we intend to perform
detailed analysis on the “families of events” just recognized by the 3D locations. The
proposed technique will be based on the re-location of “multiplets” performed using a
cross-spectrum method.
1. Data analysis.
2. 1D Vp and Vp/Vs models.
3. Starting of the Vp, Vp/Vs, Qp, Qs 3D inversions.
1. 3D numerical models of P- and S- wave velocities to be used for earthquake
locations.
2. 3D numerical models of Qp and Qs.
313
3. Precise locations on selected clusters occurring nearby seismogenic structures.
4. Database of locations relative to the period 2003-2004, including the 2004 summit
eruption.
First year
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
1000
0,00
6000
0,00
16000
0,00
2500
0,00
1950
0,00
3050
0,00
0,00
30500
0,0031
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
1000
0,00
3000
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Totale
Importo
previsto
a
Second year
Categoria di spesa
0,00
4000
0,00
5050
0,00
1450
0,00
14500
0,00
Totale
314
0,00
Total
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
2000
0,00
9000
0,00
16000
0,00
6500
0,00
7000
0,00
4500
0,00
45000
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Totale
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
Ornella Cocina was born in Catenanuova (EN) l’11.02.1963. In January 1989, she
graduated in Earth Sciences at the University of Catania. From April 1989 she leads
seismological researches at IIV_CNR, now Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
(INGV) - Sezione di Catania and collaborates to the sourveillance activity carried out by
this Institute. The research arguments mainly regarded space-time-energy distribution of
the seismic activity, space-time characterization of the seismic stress and strain tensors,
with particular reference to the variations of the local stress fields induced by magmatic
source. In the last years she directed her researches to tomography studies with the aim to
contribute to the knowledge of the internal dynamics of the Etna volcano and in
particular, on its feeding systems. Different techniques of seismic tomography have been
applied, to investigate on the space-time distribution of the seismic wave velocity under
Mt. Etna.
Patanè D., Barberi G., Cocina O., De Gori P.and Chiarabba C. (2006). Time-Resolved
Seismic Tomography Detects Magma Intrusions at Mount Etna. Science, 313, 821-823.
De Gori P., Chiarabba C., Patanè D. (2005). Qp structure of Mount Etna: Constraints for
the physics of the plumbing system. J. Geoph. Res., 110, B05303,
doi:10.1029/2003JB002875.
Martinez-Arevalo C., Patanè D., Rietbrock A., Ibanez M. J. (2005) – The intrusive process
leading to the Mt. Etna 2001 flank eruption: Constraints from 3-D attenuation
tomography. Geoph. Res. Lett.,32, L21309, doi: 10.1029/2005GL023736.
Chiarabba C., De Gori P., and Patanè D. (2004) - The Mt. Etna Plumbing System: The
contribution of Seismic Tomography, In: Mt. Etna Volcano: A Seismological
Framework, in. Mt. Etna: Volcano Laboratory, Eds. Bonaccorso et al., AGU, Geophys.
Monograph, 143.
315
Patanè D., Chiarabba C., Cocina O., De Gori P., Moretti M, Boschi E. (2002) Tomographic images and 3D earthquakes locations of the seismic swarm preceding the
2001 Mt. Etna eruption: Evidence for a dyke intrusion. Geoph. Res. Lett., 29, 10,
doi:10.1029/2001GL014391.
316
Project V4 - FLANK
RU V4/07
Scientific Responsible: Cinzia Federico, Researcher, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e
Vulcanologia, Sezione di Palermo, via Ugo La Malfa 153, 90146 Palermo, email:
[email protected], tel: 091-6809493, fax: 091 6809449.
RU Composition:
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
Man/Months 2nd
phase
3
INGV-PA
Man/Months 1st
phase
2
Man/Months 2nd
phase
2
INGV-PA
INGV-PA
INGV-PA
INGV-PA
INGV-PA
INGV-PA
INGV-PA
1
0
2
0
1
0
1
1
0
2
0
1
0
1
INGV-PA
0
0
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Cinzia Federico
Researcher
INGV-PA
Participants
Position
Institution
Rocco Favara
Director of
Research
Senior Researcher
Researcher
Technologist
Researcher
Technologist
Researcher
Researcher
Researcher
Sergio Gurrieri
Fabrizio Nigro
Marco Liuzzo
Sofia De Gregorio
Andrea Rizzo
Marco Camarda
Ester Gagliano
Candela
Fabio Pisciotta
Task 1.
Available geochemical data (water chemistry, CO2 fluxes) will be put together in a GIS
system, together with the shape and depth of the sedimentary basement.
Task 2
WP-2A) Surface
Volcanic fluids upraise along preferential pathways within the volcanic edifice, namely
faults and geometric discontinuities.
The activities planned for this task are:
- the identification of surface anomalies of gas flux, through real-time gas flux monitoring,
and geometric constraints of gas-aquifer interaction
WP-2B) Depth
The definition of the volume of aquifers, characterized by peculiar mass rate and
permeability, is needed for the comprehension of the relationships between gas ascent and
gas (CO2) entrapment in groundwater. In this context, the sedimentary basement represents
the base of the volcanic aquifer and the interface between two media with different
physical characteristics.
The activities planned for this subtask are:
317
-
the definition of the geometry of the sedimentary basement, through available
stratigraphic and geophysical data, and eventual supplementary measurements. The
expected accuracy is about 50 m.
definition of the volume and yield of the different aquifers hosted within the volcanic
edifice, through the geometrical computation based on the sedimentary basement
surface, the digital elevation model of the volcano, the modeling of the piezometric
surface.
identification of hydrological basins and main drainage directions
possible definition of the deeper extent of the faults, based on the configuration and
features of the water flow within the aquifer(s).
-
-
Task 3
WP-3B) Short term (1993-2004, monitoring data)
The geochemical investigations carried out in the last 10 years on gases discharged
from the peripheral areas of Mount Etna allowed to assess the absolute degassing pressure
of such emissions as well as to identify magma transfers within the deep feeding system.
Shallow magma degassing has been also observed and monitored through some anomalous
soil gas discharges located on the volcano flanks, in order to follow magma rise from depth
toward the surface. A significant portion of CO2 and water vapor is likely trapped during
ascent in the aquifer hosted within the more permeable levels of the volcanic edifice, and
its effect on shallower manifestations should be better investigated. Gas emissions directly
rising along central conduits were recently monitored real-time, and gave clear insights
into volcanic dynamics during either eruptive or non-eruptive phases.
Fluids permeating volcanic edifices (water, volcanic gases), besides the magma itself,
deeply affect the mechanical properties of rocks and, even more, the variations of the pore
fluid pressure are frequently released as rock failure, earthquakes and permeability
variations, which in turn affect fluid movement, with a feedback mechanism. This, in turn,
can have some effects on the stability of some portions of the volcanic edifice, due to the
stress-induced failure of rocks. Indeed, fluid pore pressure is frequently considered as the
cause of a kind of seismicity and can crucially affect slope stability.
The activity planned for this task concern the
- Analysis of available geochemical dataset, in term of spatial distribution of measured
parameters and temporal variations in relation with the eruptive dynamics during recent
volcanic activity.
- Measurements of the piezometric level in some selected wells
- the modeling with appropriate software of fluid circulation (gas and water) in the
volcanic edifice, and their pattern within the volcanic edifice; the structural model of the
volcano, obtained from activities ascribed to Task 1, will be translated to a grid for further
simulations;
- the modeling of the effect of pore pressure on characteristics of volcanic rocks (porosity
and permeability);
The surface effects of past volcanic activity, observed in geochemical parameters, will be
tentatively simulated by changing mass rate and pressure of fluids at depth.
1. Definition of the physical characteristics of the volcanic rocks.
2. Physical model of the volcano, with the identification of the zones of different
permeability.
318
3. Preliminary simulations of fluid circulation.
1. Vertical and spatial distribution of main fluid pathways.
2. Simulation of the effect of the variation of the fluid mass rate and/or pressure on
shallow. geochemical manifestations during past volcanic activity.
3. Simulation of the effects of fluid mass rate and/or pressure on rock characteristics.
4. Simulation of the effects of fluid mass rate and/or pressure on rock characteristics
(porosity and permeability)
1° year
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
3000
0,00
0,00
0,00
10500
0,00
1500
0,00
0,00
15000
0,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
Totale
2° year
Categoria di spesa
0,00
3000
0,00
0,00
0,00
10500
0,00
1500
0,00
15000
0,00
Totale
0,00
319
Total
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
18000
0,00
0,00
0,00
9000
0,00
3000
0,00
30000
0,00
Totale
0,00
Cinzia Federico born in Collesano (PA) on 1st April 1970. In 2000 she had the PhD in
Geochemistry and since then she worked at the INGV-PA as researcher. She is the
scientific responsible of the geochemical surveillance of Mt. Vesuvius.
Her research interests concern the study of volcanic plumes in relation with the volcanic
activity, through discrete and real-time measurements of acidic gas species. Furthermore,
she focused on hydrological systems in volcanic areas (Mt. Vesuvius, Stromboli, Mt.
Etna), and particularly on the interaction of volcanic gases with groundwaters and their
effect on water chemistry. In this frame, she also studied the behavior of trace elements in
volcanic aquifers and processes of gas-water-rock interaction. She also studied soil
degassing as a tool to identify faults in volcanic areas, and mechanisms of gas transport in
soils.
From 2003 to 2006 she has been the scientific responsible of partnership INGV-Regione
Piemonte for the monitoring of seismicity in this part of Northern Italy.
She is co-author of about twenty-five articles published in international scientific journals.
Aiuppa, A., Moretti, R., Federico, C., Giudice, G., Gurrieri, S., Liuzzo, M., Papale, P.,
Shinohara, H., Valenza, M., 2007. Forecasting Etna eruption by real time evaluation of
volcanic gas composition. Geology, 35, 12: 1115-1118, DOI: 10.1130/G24149A.1
Aiuppa A., C. Federico, G. Giudice, S. Gurrieri, M. Liuzzo, H. Shinohara, R. Favara, M.
Valenza (2006) Rates of carbon dioxide plume degassing from Mount Etna volcano. J.
Geophys. Res., 111, B09207, doi:10.1029/2006JB004307
Aiuppa, A., Federico, C., Giudice, G., Gurrieri, S., Paonita, A., Valenza, M. (2004) Plume
chemistry provides insights into the mechanisms of sulfur and halogen degassing at
basaltic volcanoes. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 222(2), 469-483.
Aiuppa, A., Federico, C. (2004) Anomalous magmatic degassing prior to the 5th April 2003
paroxysm on Stromboli. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L14607, doi:10.1029/2004GL020458.
320
Federico C., Aiuppa A., Allard P., Bellomo S., Jean-Baptiste P., Parello F. and Valenza M.
(2002) Magma-derived gas influx and water-rock interactions in the volcanic aquifer of
Mt. Vesuvius, Italy. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta, 66, 963-981.
321
Project V4 - FLANK
RU V4/08
Scientific Responsible: Carlo Giunchi, Senior Researcher, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica
e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Sismologia e Tettonofisica, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143
Roma, email: [email protected], tel: 0651860411, fax: 0651860507.
RU Composition:
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Carlo Giunchi
Senior Researcher
INGV-RM1
Participants
Position
Institution
Sergio Vinciguerra
Antonio Rovelli
Maurizio Bonafede
Spina Cianetti
Emanuele Casarotti
Giuseppe Di Giulio
Fabrizio Cara
Giovanna Calderoni
Marta Pischiutta
Giuliano Milana
Francesca Bianco
Lucia Zaccarelli
Susanna Falsaperla
Horst Langer
Luciano Scarfì
Piero Del Gaudio
Piergiorgio Scarlato
Andrea Cavallo
Luigi Burlini
Luca Caricchi
Philip Meredith
Michael Heap
P. Baud
Researcher
Researcher
Professor
Researcher
Researcher
Researcher
Researcher
Researcher
Ph.D Student
Technologist
Senior Researcher
Researcher
Senior Researcher
Researcher
Researcher
Tecnologist
Senior Researcher
Researcher
Senior Researcher
Post Doc
Professor
Ph.D Student
Lecturer
Man/Months 1st
phase
2
Man/Months 2nd
phase
2
Man/Months 1st
phase
2
2
1
2
1
6
6*
2
1
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Man/Months 2nd
phase
3
2
1
2
1
3
3*
2
1
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
INGV-RM1
INGV-RM1
UNI-BO
INGV-RM1
INGV-RM1
INGV-RM1
INGV-RM1
INGV-RM1
INGV-RM1
INGV-RM1
INGV-OV
INGV-OV
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-RM1
INGV-RM1
INGV-RM1
ETH, Zurich
ETH, Zurich
UCL, London
UCL, London
IPG,
Strasbourg
Task 3
Earthquakes of the eruptive periods of July 2001 and October 2002 were recorded by local
broad-band stations installed in and around Catania for microzonation purposes. Two of
them were deployed on the SE flank of Mt. Etna. Moreover, two accelerographs of RAN
(National Accelerometric Network) recorded on scale the strongest events of October
2002. All these data offered an unprecedented opportunity revealing the presence of a
significant long-period (LP) ground motion component during the most damaging events.
The excess of low-frequency amplitude (with a spectral peak around 3 s) causes large
322
displacements, of the order of those typical of M ≈ 6 for tectonic earthquakes (Milana et
al., 2008). Therefore, shallow depth may not be the unique cause for the high damage of
volcanic events of Mt. Etna, large ground displacements implying large drift ratio, i.e. the
ratio between the maximum top displacement and the building height.
LP earthquakes are intrinsically related to the flank dynamics and represent the most
crucial contribution to seismic hazard in the Mt. Etna area. A thorough study is planned
including the correlation between the eruptive processes and the occurrence of LP
earthquakes, the waveform scaling, and the determination of the cause of the large lowfrequency motions with particular attention to the role of depth and focal mechanism.
Moreover, long continuous recordings of broad-band local stations before, during, and
after the seismic swarms offer the opportunity for a study of volcanic tremor variations in
concomitance with the occurrence of LP earthquakes. In principle, the role of fluids can
affect predominant frequency variations both for volcanic earthquakes and tremor, and
local continuous recording are the most useful tools to confirm this hypothesis detecting
frequency variations in the noise structure.
Also polarization of earthquakes and ambient noise along the major faults of Mt. Etna can
give important insight on the volcano structure and attenuation of earthquake effects.
Dense ambient noise measurements have already been performed on the Tremestieri,
Pernicana, Acicatena and Moscarello faults (Rigano et al., 2008). These measurements will
be extended to the other faults of Mt. Etna.
The relationship between ground motion polarization and anisotropy has been
hypothesized (Rigano et al., 2008) but has to be demonstrated yet. Earthquake waveforms
recorded so far at portable stations run for temporary experiments on Mt. Etna can be
analyzed to infer information on local anisotropy looking at the S-wave splitting,
comparing ground motion polarization with fast velocity directions. Moreover, controlled
source experiments and laboratory tests will be performed to put experimental constraints
to azimuthal variations of velocity and attenuation in dependence on the local fracture field
and crack orientation. Chemical shots will be blast in the Pernicana fault area and recorded
at 2D arrays of 20 broad-band stations. Samples representative of in situ stress conditions
will be obtained by drilling boreholes at depths up to twenty meters. Elastic wave
velocities (both P and S waves) will be measured along the three main directions at
increasing effective pressure, in order to quantify the textural and the voids space seismic
anisotropy. Measurements will be carried out both for dry and fluid saturated samples, in
order to take into account the effects of fluids for attenuation and fluid transmissivity.
Measurements will be carried out at HP-HT Laboratory, INGV Rome. The joint analysis of
this data will allow to quantitatively support the seismological observations carried out and
the edifice geophysical properties. Moreover, a detailed study of attenuation of seismic
energy including azimuthal variations is an important tool in the hazard assessment.
References:
Milana, G., A. Rovelli, A. De Sortis, G. Calderoni, G. Coco, M. Corrao, and P.
Marsan (2008). The magnitude of damaging volcanic earthquakes of Mt. Etna: why the
commonly used magnitude scales are not adequate, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. (submitted).
Rigano, R., F. Cara, G. Lombardo, and A. Rovelli (2008). Evidence for ground motion
polarization on fault zones of Mt. Etna volcano, J. Geophys. Res. (submitted).
323
Task 4 – Modeling
WP-4A) Definition of parameters
Mechanical parameters, such static and dynamic elastic moduli, uniaxial compressive
strength are crucial for the definition of stress-strain relationships. Mechanical parameters
are needed for ground deformation modeling, as well as for the modeling of the weakening
mechanisms destabilizing the volcano eastern sector. We selected the two most
representative lithologies in order to understand their mechanical and rheological behavior
and provide quantitative parameters for the large-scale instability of the eastern flank: the
extrusive basalt from the lava flows and the Plio-Pleistocene clays. Samples will be
collected at selected quarries. The experimental work will aim to define 1) physical
properties of the lithologies (density, porosity, dynamic elastic moduli, seismic anisotropy
of both P and S wave at room pressure); 2) mechanical parameters, such as static elastic
moduli and uniaxial compressive strength; 3) P and S wave velocities under increasing
effective pressure and temperature for the lava flows, representative of the edifice stress
conditions.
Even if the study of pore P under deformation is beyond our objectives and would require a
suite of triaxial deformation laboratory experiments, we will run uniaxial compressive tests
on water saturated samples and we will explore the weakening effects on the compressive
strength. On the same token, we can explore in the permeameter, how pore pressure
increases under increasing hydrostatic pressure. If time and resources will be left, we might
run a few pilot deformation tests in triaxial deformation apparata, in order to have first
insights on the evolution of pore P under deformation.
Main tests carried out
1) Uniaxial compressive strength at room pressure and temperature and bench P and S
elastic waves velocities for the Plio-Pleistocene clays.
2) P and S elastic waves velocities for lava flows at increasing effective pressure (up to 300
MPa and 1200°C)
Main facilities
1) Uniaxial testing machine with double loading cell (15 and 250 kN) and deformation
control.
2) Permeameter for simultaneous P, S and fluid permeability at effective pressures up to
100MPa
3) Paterson rig apparatus, load cell 1000kN, effective pressures up to 300MPa and
temperatures up to 1200°C and PZT transducers for the physical properties
4) WD/ED Microprobe (5 spectrometers) JEOL JXA 8200
5) Field Emission Electron Microscope JEOL JSM 6500 F
Mount Etna has been extensively monitored in the last decade by geodetic and satellite
techniques (GPS, leveling, EDM, InSAR) providing a fairly detailed description of the
deformation both during quiescent and active phases. The period ranging between 1993
and 2005 is characterized by multiple inflation-deflation phases caused by feeding of the
reservoir system and consequent eruption, followed by a renewed feeding regime and by a
new eruption: these phases are somehow coupled to the seismic activity along tectonic,
well-known, structures and to the instability of the eastern flank of the volcano.
324
Our purpose is to investigate, by a large-scale 3D finite element model, the cause-effect
relationship occurring between volcanic and seismic activity and how this can be linked to
the E flank instability. We plan to include in the full model of the volcanic edifice all the
major potential sources (surface dikes or buried pressurized cavities), the most significant
seismogenic structures with realistic frictional properties (such as Pernicana and the
Mascalucia-Tremestieri-Trecastagni fault systems) and the rheological discontinuities
(clay-basalt interface). Additionally there is strong evidence that the elastic rheology,
usually assumed in modeling volcanic deformation, is a crude and inaccurate assumption
for Mount Etna. For example the time-delay observed between volcanic inflation/eruption
and the seismic activity along the major fault systems suggests that a time-dependent
rheology is necessary to model this interaction. Last but not least, the thermal anomalies
characterizing the volcanic areas are responsible for the anelastic behavior especially in
proximity of the sources. We want to include this effect in the FE model using a plastic
rheology whose yield stress can be function of stress and/or temperature.
The solid modelling of Mount Etna is a complex task, that will be approached using recent
software specifically developed to allow us the reconstruction of topography, internal
conformation of geologic structures and structural discontinuities. Sensitivity analysis of
the 3D discretization will be performed to evaluate the stability of the numerical method as
a function of the assumed rheology and of the discontinuities geometries.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Microstructural characterization of the natural lithologies investigated.
Uniaxial compressive strength (room pressure and temperature).
Static and dynamic elastic moduli (room pressure and temperature).
Definition of Secondary seismic anisotropy (Voids space+texture).
Preliminary 3D FE model of of the unstable flanks of Mt. Etna.
Study of the role of different sources (summit eruptions, deep pressurized
reservoirs, regional tectonic stress) on the structural discontinuities and flank
instability.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Dynamic elastic moduli for lava flows at increasing effective pressure.
Microstructural characterization of the experimental products.
Definition of Primary seismic anisotropy (Texture).
Map of directions of polarization.
Attenuation of volcanic LP earthquakes.
Refinement of the 3D FE model including anelastic rheologies.
Application of the 3D model predictions to the 2002-2003 and 2004-2005 activity.
325
First year
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
4400
0,00
8800
0,00
12000
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
14400
0,00
4400
0,00
1111112110,0
0
44000
1210,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
2600
0,00
5200
0,00
4500
0,00
Totale
Second year
Categoria di spesa
0,00
11100
0,00
2600
0,00
0,00
26000
0,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
7000
0,00
14000
0,00
Totale
Total
Categoria di spesa
326
16500
0,00
0,00
25500
0,00
7000
0,00
70000
0,00
Totale
0,00
Carlo Giunchi (born in 1965) has a permanent position at INGV since 1999. He is Senior
Researcher since 2003. After the degree in Physics at the University of Bologna in 1991,
he gets the PhD in Earth Sciences at the University of Milano in 1998. He takes part in
various MIUR, UE and DPC project since 1998. His research topics range from subduction
dynamics and postglacial rebound to fault interactions and mantle and lithosphere
rheology. In recent times he is studying the inference of volcanic deformation sources
using geodetic data. He is author of 25 papers in peer-reviewed journals and more than 50
abtracts to international meetings.
Stanchits S., Vinciguerra S., Dresen G. (2006). Ultrasonic velocities, Acoustic emission
characteristics and crack damage of basalt and granite, Pure Applied Geophysics, 163,
1-20..
Vinciguerra S., Trovato C., Meredith P.G., Benson P.M. (2005). Relating seismic
velocities, permeability and crack damage in interpreting the mechanics of active
volcanoes, International Journal of Rock Mechanics, 42/7-8, 900-910.
Bianco, F. , L. Scarfì, E. Del Pezzo and D. Patanè (2006). Shear wave splitting changes
associated with the 2001 volcanic eruption on Mt. Etna, Geophys. J. Int., 167, 959-967,
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2006.03152.x
Bonaccorso, A., Cianetti S., Giunchi C., Trasatti E., Bonafede M., Boschi E. (2005).
Analytical and 3-D numerical modelling of Mt. Etna (Italy) volcano inflation. Geophys.
J. Int., 163, 852- 862, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2005.02777.x
Trasatti, E., C. Giunchi, and N. Piana Agostinetti (2008). Numerical inversion of
deformation caused by pressure sources: application to Mount Etna (Italy). Geophys. J.
Int., 172, 873-884, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03677.x
327
Project V4 - FLANK
RU V4/09
Scientific Responsible: Francesco Mazzarini, Researcher, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e
Vulcanologia-Sezione di Pisa, Via della Faggiola, 32 - 56126 Pisa, email:
[email protected], tel: 050 8311956, fax: 050 8311942
RU Composition:
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Francesco
Mazzarini
Researcher
INGV-PI
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
Man/Months 2nd
phase
3
Man/Months 2nd
phase
2
Participants
Position
Institution
Maria Teresa
Pareschi
Massimo Pompilio
Gilberto Saccorotti
Paola Del Carlo
Antonella Longo
Massimiliano
Favalli
Simone Tarquini
Ilaria Isola
Marina Bisson
Luca Bisconti
Chiara Montagna
Melissa Vassalli
Andrea Cassioli
Michele Barsanti
Andrea Cavallo
Massimo Tiepolo
Chris Bean
Gareth O’Brian
Marco Neri
Director of
Research
Senior Researcher
Senior Researcher
Researcher
Researcher
Senior Researcher
INGV-PI
Man/Months 1st
phase
2
INGV-PI
INGV-PI
INGV-CT
INGV-PI
INGV-PI
3
2
3
0
0
3
2
3
0
0
Technologist
Technologist
Technologist
Researcher
Ass. ricerca
Ass. ricerca
PhD Fellow
Researcher
Technologist
Researcher
Ass. Professor
PhD Fellow
Researcher
INGV-PI
INGV-PI
INGV-PI
INGV-PI
INGV-PI
INGV-PI
Univ. Firenze
Univ. Pisa
INGV-RM
IGG-CNR-PV
Univ. Coll. Dublin
Univ. Coll. Dublin
INGV-CT
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
0
1
1
1
0
Task 1
The dynamics of spreading and flank instability/failure at Mount Etna is mainly driven by
the load of the volcanic pile/edifice over the basement, the basement structure and
mechanical stratigraphy (i.e. occurrence of basal detachments), and the activity of the
volcanic system (i.e. feeders, shallow level magmatic chambers, conduit dynamics and
eruptive events). In a such a complex scenario one question is pivotal for both civil
protection and science issues: what is the link between the seismicity/tectonics, the flank
instability and the volcanic activity at Mount Etna? To fully answer such a complex
question a multi-disciplinary approach and geological, volcanological, petrological and
geophysical data necessitate. Among the variety of investigations this UR aims to face the
following three points: a) to perform a numerical simulation of the dynamics of a
328
magmatic/rock system when affected by i) new arrival of magma in the shallow system
and ii) the possible trigger of eruption by the occurrence of external perturbation
(earthquakes and/or landslides); b) to perform petrological and mineralogical analysis on
the volcanics erupted from Mount Etna to gain information on the thermal and barometric
pre- and syn eruptive state of magma in the volcanic system; c) to make a contribution in
defining the relationships between the regional tectonic structures and the flank instability
of the eastern sector of Mount Etna by analysing off-shore seismic lines. All the results
deriving form the activities described below will be stored into a data-base incorporated
into a GIS environment based on ESRI ArcView (ArcGis) software.
Task 2- Geometry, kinematics and structure of the “unstable” flanks
WP-2B) Depth
What are the actual relationships between the seaward spreading of the eastern and southeastern sectors of Mt. Etna and the huge amount of mass wasting deposits off-shore? In
order to make some contribution to this problem initially all the available literature data
about the on-shore and off-shore tectonic structures in the eastern and south-eastern Mount
Etna flanks as well as in the Ionian Sea will be critically analysed. A critical evaluation of
literature data on the extent of submarine mass-wasting deposits (landslides) will be also
carried out. A base-map of the main faults and submarine landslides will be thus compiled
in order to provide a geographic platform over which all the interpretations of the new
seismic lines will be placed. Multi-channel high resolution 2D seismic data (sampling at 1
s, record length of 3 s TWT) acquired on May 2005 off-shore of Catania will be elaborated
and interpreted to better define: i) the possible relationships between landslides and faults;
ii) the off-shore extent of the fault zones bordering north and south the seaward spreading
of the eastern flank of the volcano. The definition of the relationships between the
landslides deposits off-shore Mt. Etna, probably testifying for an episode of flank
instability, and the fault could provide some clues on the relative timing of flank instability
and tectonic activity. The seaward spreading of the eastern flank of the volcano is bordered
by fault zones. The southern border of the eastern flank is marked by folds and faults (e.g.
Mascalucia and Trecastagni) whereas the northern border is marked by the Pernicana fault.
Most of the off-shore bulging is comprised between the off-shore continuations of these
two fault zones. By analyzing selected seismic lines passing across the site of the possible
off-shore continuation of the Pernicana fault and the Mascalucia Trecastagni faults we will
define which fault system pass trough the volcanic pile and continue into the crust and
which one simply affects only the volcanic pile. The results will be compared and
integrated with other off-shore seismic data aimed at investigating the crustal strain at
regional scale in collaboration with other research units (e.g. CNR-Bologna) in order to
provide a consistent geologic/structural scenario for the instability and the seaward
spreading of the Mount Etna eastern and south-eastern flanks.
Task 4- Modelling
WP-4A) Definition of parameters
A petrologic study of products erupted during relevant eruptions of Mt Etna will be carried
out in order to 1) estimate pre-eruptive conditions in terms of pressure, temperature and
chemico-physical properties of magma 2) recognize effects of changes/perturbations
occurring within the plumbing system (depth, volume of magma reservoir, recharge rate)
on solid-liquids-gas equilibria; 3) find a relation with the flank dynamics (gravity and
329
tectonics) of the volcano. Results will provide inputs for numerical simulations carried out
within the same RU and in the same time they will contribute to the validation and refining
of the above models. Products of eruptions representative of different styles, magnitude
and intensities will selected, with a particular attention to those more recent events
observed by a complete multidisciplinary monitoring system (e.g. after 1995). Beside a
basic textural and compositional study, which includes petrography and bulk rocks
analyses, detailed chemical analyses of minerals and glasses will be performed in order to
recover pre-eruptive conditions. The database of experimental-determined phase equilibria,
produced during the previous DPC-project, will be employed in order to increase accuracy
of estimates resulting from generic thermodynamic models. A special care will be devoted
to interpret chemical zoning of those minerals (e.g. plagioclase) whose growth/dissolution
rate is strongly dependent on processes of degassing, decompression and magma chamber
refilling. Detailed zoning profiles will be obtained by a combination of high resolution
BSE images, X-ray elemental maps and spot analyses carried with electron microprobe and
laser ablation ICP-MS techniques and will be employed to reconstruct the pre-eruptive
crystallization history. . The latest multi-component models for lava parameters (e.g.
viscosity, density) will be taken into account in the modelling.
WP-4B) Numerical models.
Numerical simulations of the dynamics of the magmatic and rock system at Mount Etna
will be performed with the aim of i) understanding the magma dynamics during the preeruptive phases accompanying and following the arrival of gas-rich magma into the
shallow system; ii) evaluating the possible role of external perturbations (earthquakes or
landslides) in triggering magma convection and pressurization; iii) estimating the timespace dependent gravity, deformation and seismic signals produced by the simulated
dynamics. System conditions for the simulations in terms of chamber/conduit geometries
and depth, magma composition and temperature, etc. will be defined by the project
consortium, including the investigation carried out by this same RU, in order to be
representative of relevant conditions for Mount Etna. Numerical simulations of magma
dynamics will be performed by means of GALES, a finite element numerical code for the
time-dependent 2D dynamics of multi-component compressible and incompressible
magma, which has been developed by some of the RU participants. Time-space-dependent
stress conditions computed at the magma-rock interface will be employed as boundary
conditions for the numerical simulations of 2D/3D rock elasto-dynamics, taking into
account rock heterogeneities (defined within the project consortium on the basis of
previous results on Mount Etna seismic tomography experiments), and real topography.
Some of the relevant system conditions (e.g., chamber size, depth, geometry, magma
composition and volatile content, etc., to be defined within the project consortium) will be
varied in parametric studies in order to ascertain their influence on the general dynamics,
the expected signals, and the capability of external triggers to destabilize the magmatic
system and create the conditions for a new eruption. The latest multi-component models
for magma parameters (e.g. viscosity, density) will be taken into account in the modelling.
A very preliminary analysis of the effect of the very shallow (< 300 m depth) ground water
circulation and of the presence of aquifers on the expected seismic signal at the surface
will be addressed.
330
1. Preparation and storage of the GIS data base.
2. Map of the most relevant on-shore and off-shore structures and of the extent of
submarine landslides.
3. Elaboration of some seismic lines across the possible off-shore prolongation of the
Mascalucia Trecastagni faults.
4. Analysis and interpretation of elaborated seismic lines.
5. Representative eruptions of different styles, magnitude and intensities will selected.
6. Selection of representative samples and detailed “ad hoc” resampling.
7. Petrologic study of products of selected recent eruptions.
8. Estimate of relevant pre-eruptive conditions within magmatic reservoirs feeding
recent eruptions.
9. Development of combined analytical methods to obtain detailed zoning profile in
minerals.
10. System definition for the simulations of magma and rock dynamics.
11. First simulations on magma/rock dynamics.
1. Elaboration of some seismic lines across the possible off-shore prolongation of the
Pernicana fault.
2. Analysis and interpretation of elaborated seismic lines.
3. Correlation of observed structures with other seismic surveys.
4. Petrologic study of products of relevant historical eruptions.
5. Interpretation of zoning profile in minerals.
6. Reconstruction of the crystallization history within the magma chamber.
7. Additional simulations on magma/rock dynamics.
8. Simulations of magma/rock dynamics with external triggers, and definition of the
expected geophysical signals.
9. Storage of the results into the GIS data-base.
First year
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
3000
0,00
9000
0,00
23000
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
5500
0,00
331
4500
0,00
0,00
45000
0,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
3000
0,00
8000
0,00
20000
0,00
Totale
Second year
Categoria di spesa
0,00
5000
0,00
4000
0,00
0,00
40000
0,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
6000
0,00
17000
0,00
43000
0,00
Totale
Total
Categoria di spesa
0,00
10500
0,00
8500
0,00
Totale
85000
0,00
Name: Francesco Mazzarini, Date of birth: 23 January 1959, Nationality: Italian. 1988:
Degree in Geology, University of Pisa, Italy. 1988-1995 contract researcher for the
University of Siena in the frame of the Italian National Project of Antarctic Research
(PNRA). 1989-1994 scientific collaboration with Istituto CNUCE CNR of Pisa on Remote
Sensing and GIS application to Geology and Environment. 1991-1992 years professional
332
geologist in quarry exploitation. 1996-2001 contract researcher at the Italian National
Research Council (CNR) in Pisa. 2001-2005 fully employed as researcher at the CNR in
Pisa. 2005 employed as senior researcher (geologist) at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica
e Vulcanologia (INGV) in Pisa. 1996-1999 coordinator of the research unit TLR02 in the
project ‘Rilievi spettroradiometrici di superfici naturali in Antartide per uno studio
integrato con dati telerilevati’ of the PNRA. 2000-2002 coordinator of the project ‘Il
magmatismo Cenozoico del Mediterraneo centrale ed orientale: petrogenesi e significato
geodinamico’ of the CNR in Pisa. 2001-2003 coordinator of the project “Sviluppo ed
applicazione di tecniche di telerilevamento per il monitoraggio dei vulcani attivi italiani” ,
activity 5.3, granted by the Italian Civil Protection GNV-Protezione Civile. 2002-2005
coordinator of a research contract between CNR of Pisa and the municipalities of Scansano
and Magliano in T. and the AATO 6 authority for hydrogeologic, structural and
geophysical surveys in southern Tuscany. 2002-2005 coordinator of the of the geological
mapping of the Foglio 318-Follonica at the scale 1:50000 in the frame of the contract
between CNR and Tuscan region administration. 2005-Present Associate Editor of the
journal of the Geological Society of America (GSA) GEOSPHERE, ISSN: 1553-040X.
Corsaro, R. A., M. Pompilio, 2004. Buoyancy-controlled eruption of magmas at Mt Etna.
Terra Nova, 16, 16-22.
Corsaro, R. A., L. Miraglia, M. Pompilio. 2007. Petrologic evidence of a complex
plumbing system feeding the July-August 2001 eruption of Mt. Etna, Sicily, Italy,
Bulletin of Volcanology, 10.1007/s00445-006-0083-4.
Longo, A., M. Vassalli, P. Papale , M. Barsanti, 2006. Numerical simulation of convection
and mixing in magma chambers replenished with CO2-rich magma. Geophysical
Research Letters, Vol. 33, doi: 10.1029/2006GL027760.
Longo, A., D. Barbato, P. Papale, G. Saccorotti, M. Barsanti, 2008. Numerical simulation
of the dynamics of fluid oscillations in a gravitationally unstable, compositionally
stratified fissure. Special volume of the Geological London Society (in publication).
Pareschi M.T., E. Boschi, F. Mazzarini, M. Favalli, 2006. Large submarine landslides
offshore Mt. Etna. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, L13302,
doi:10.1029/2006GL026064, 2006.
333
Project V4 - FLANK
RU V4/10
Scientific Responsible: Giuseppe Nunnari, Full Professor, Dipartimento di Ingegneria
Elettrica, Elettronica e dei Sistemi, Università degli Studi di Catania, email:
RU Composition:
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Giuseppe Nunnari
Full Professor
University of
Catania
Participants
Position
Institution
Stefano Gresta
Alessandro Spata
Placido Montalto
Flavio Cannavò
Thomas R. Walter
Full Professor
PHD student
Technician
Technologist
Researcher
INGV - Catania
INGV - Catania
GeoForschungsZentrum
(GFZ) Potsdam (D)
Man/Months 1st
phase
2
4
0
0
1
Man/Months 2nd
phase
3
Man/Months 2nd
phase
2
4
0
0
1
Task 3
WP-3A) Long term (last 300-400 years from catalogue data)
Many areas of physics take a deterministic approach: given some known values, an
outcome can be predicted accurately. Newtonian mechanics, electro-magnetism and early
optics all had this approach. However not everything in this universe is able to be analyzed
this way. Some events are apparently not dictated by any quantities (or, at least, none we
know of yet). The concept of Self-organized criticality (SOC) is an example of the latter
approach.
Self-organized criticality (SOC) is hypothesized to link the multitude of complex
phenomena observed in nature. It is a theory of the internal interactions of large nonlinear
systems. In particular, it states that large interactive systems will self-organize into a
critical state without any tuning of the parameters.
A complex system candidate to exhibit SOC behavior is characterized by the
following properties: many degrees of freedom or ways in which the system has the ability
to evolve, a continuous slow input of energy, and the presence of local thresholds store
energy, fast transport and dissipation. All these features are reasonably attributable to an
active volcano and, all the more reason, to a particular feature of the activity of a volcano,
as its flank dynamics. For this reason in this task we propose to analyze the volcanic
activity of Mt. Etna and the main effects of its flank dynamics (as eruptions and
seismicity) in terms of the self-organized criticality theory.
Since the SOC dynamics take place at the “edge of chaos” they are very sensitive to the
initial conditions. Thus resulting dynamics starting from close initial conditions diverge
exponentially in time showing different behaviors. For this reason a deterministic approach
is not able to investigate and explore the complexity governing these dynamics. Moreover,
SOC dynamics are characterized by the absence of a characteristic scale both in time and
space. The immediate consequence of this fact is that it is impossible to predict the size
334
and the time of events occurring. In this task we will investigate historical volcanological
data to investigate the conjectured SOC nature of the flank dynamic. Furthermore we will
investigate the compatibility of the volcanic flank dynamics with the assumption of SOC
behaviour of the volcanic system.
Dynamics of volcanic areas are the result of complex interaction among regional
tectonics and local magmatic forces. Information about this mechanism is contained in
geophysical and geochemical signals recorded by continuous monitoring networks.
Unfortunately information due to interesting geophysical and geochemical processes is
hidden by several noise sources and the search for recognizing volcanic effects is a very
complicated task. We believe that modern data mining techniques can help in this view.
Data mining or knowledge discovery is the nontrivial extraction of implicit, previously
unknown, and potentially useful information from large collection of data.
It can be viewed as a multidisciplinary activity because it exploits several research
disciplines of artificial intelligence such as machine learning, pattern recognition, expert
systems, and knowledge acquisition. Adding the time dimension to a database produces a
Time Series Database and introduces new aspects and challenges to the tasks of data
mining and knowledge discovery. These new aspects include a new approach to efficient
representation of time series, multivariate time series similarity and classification
algorithms.
There are many data mining tasks such as clustering, classification, regression,
content retrieval and visualization. Each task can be thought as a particular kind of
problem to be solved by a particular class of algorithms. One of the most important data
mining tasks regards the classification problem. Classification can be used both to
understand the existing pattern in data and to predict how new instances will behave.
In this task we will apply new signal processing techniques for a better
characterization of seismic and geodetic signals, and classification algorithms to
characterize patterns in multivariate time series. In particular, we plan to apply wavelet and
cross-wavelet approaches for examining relationship in time-frequency domain between
heterogeneous time series. Indeed literature results agree to state that these techniques
exhibit some advantages over traditional Fourier methods allowing a better time-frequency
resolution. Moreover, the multi-resolution property of wavelets can be incorporated into
filtering, cross-analysis and classification procedures. Proposed approaches provide a large
variety of applications from signal characterization to pattern recognition.
The target of this task is the development of software tools that implements data mining
techniques in multivariate time series database in order to recognize pre-eruptive patterns
and trends, by considering data provided by seismic and continuous GPS networks,
because these data sets seems more promising on the base of similar applications on
Stromboli (Patané et al., 2007).
Task 4
WP-4B) Numerical Models
It is common to observe that the slopes of the greatest volcanoes of the world are
usually characterized by a strong instability caused by the continuing eruptive activity, the
gravitational loading of their edifice and the activity of important regional lineaments.
The deformation and geological data on Mount Etna volcano have confirmed the
presence of a clear downward movement of its eastern flank. Instead the seismic activity of
this area have showed a complex and heterogenic stress field orientation, probably due to
335
the coexistence of a regional stress field and a local stress field produced during the several
intrusive episodes.
The aim of this research task is to establish the relations between magmatic and
tectonic structures and define the relationships between pre-eruptive, eruptive dynamics
and superficial stress fields in terms of Coulomb stress by numerical simulations.
In these last years many studies have dealt with interactions between volcanic
episodes and seismic activity in terms of static stress changes by using of Coulomb
software (Stein and King, 1994) based on analytic solution of displacements, strains and
stresses. By applying to the boundary element method it is possible to resolve many
limitations of the analytic method such as the assumption of an elastic, homogenous and
continuous half-space medium. Moreover we will be able to evaluate the topographic
effects of the displacements, strain and stresses calculations produced by a sliding surface
on the volcano. In our Coulomb stress calculations, the remote stress effects will be also
taken in account to better understand the role of the regional stress field acting on the Etna
area.
Finally, by Poly 3D software we could model complex geometry planes and the well known creeping behaviour of some structures lying on eastern flank. We propose to
calculate Coulomb stress changes by the inversion of geophysics data for a temporal period
from 1993 to 2004 in order to understand how the intrusive episodes are able to influence
the dynamic of the eastern flank on the Mount Etna volcano. These modelling studies and
results could be fundamental in order to give an important contribute for the further
evaluation of the hazard and for a possible improvement of the monitoring system.
1) A database of historic seismic and volcanological data for studying SOC aspects of
volcanic processes.
2) New algorithms to process continuous GPS and seismic signals.
3) New insights about self organized critical (SOC) behaviors of volcanic areas.
4) New algorithms to compute the Coulomb stress changes in the eastern flank of Mt Etna.
1) Pattern recognition techniques to analyze multivariate time-series.
2) Algorithm for measuring time series similarities, classification and clustering.
3) BEM modeling for simulation of relationships between pre-eruptive, eruptive dynamics
and superficial stress fields.
4) Scientific reports and papers in peer review conferences and journals.
First year
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
336
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
800000,700000
3000
0,00
32000
0,00
0,00
1000
0,00
4000
0,00
40000
0,00444
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
Totale
Second year
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
3000
0,00
32000
0,00
0,00
1000
0,00
4000
0,00
40000
0,00
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
Totale
Total
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
0,0
6000
0,00
64000
0,00
0,00
2000
0,00
8000
0,00
80000
0,00
Totale
337
Giuseppe Nunnari received the “Laurea” degree in electrical engineering (cum laudae)
from the University of Catania, Catania, Italy, in 1979. He was a software engineer in
private companies until 1983 and Researcher of the Italian National Research Council
(CNR), from May 1983 to October 1992, where he carried out research concerning the
modelling and processing of geophysical data. From November 1992 he joined with the
University of Catania, Faculty of Engineering, were he has served as associate professor of
System Theory and Automatic Control, till September 2001 and as a professor up to the
present days. His research interests include the modelling and control of dynamic systems,
signal and image processing, soft computing and modelling of environmental systems. He
is author or co-author of about 230 scientific papers published in international journals,
conference proceedings and books chapters. He has also co-authored 3 scientific books
published by international publishers. He has been involved, also as the coordinator, in
several research activities at international and national level, the most recent being the
following: Research on Active Volcanoes, Precursors, Scenarios, Hazard and Risk
(subproject V_3_6 Etna), Funded by the Italian INGV-DPC (INGV is the Italian Institute
of Geophysics and Volcanology, DPC is the Italian Department of Civil Protection), years
2004-2006, Monitoring Research Activity at Stromboli and Panarea, Funded by the Italian
INGV-DPC, years 2004-2006, Air Pollution Episodes: modelling Tools for Improved
Smog management (APPETISE) Funded by the European Union under the FP5
Framework Program, Contract IST-1999-11764, years: 2000-2002, Innovative
Methodologies for Processing SAR Interferograms, Funded by the Italian INGV, years:
2002-2004, Innovative methodologies for the integrated inversion of gravimetric and
magnetic data recorded in volcanic area (EPOT), Funded by the Italian INGV, years:20022004, Technique and method innovation in geophysical research, monitoring and early
warning at active volcanoes (TECVOLC), Funded by the European Union under the FP4
Framework Program.
G. Nunnari, G. Puglisi, F. Guglielmino (2005), Inversion of SAR data in active volcanic
areas by optimisation techniques, Non Linear Processes in Geophysics, 12: pp 863-870.
Currenti G., Del Negro C., Nunnari G., Inverse Modelling of Volcanomagnetic fields using
a genetic algorithm techniques, Geophysical International Journal, 163, pp 403-418,
2005.
Nunnari G., Bertucco L., Ferrucci F., A Neural Approach to the Integrated Inversion of
Geophisical Data Types, IEEE Transaction on Geosciences and Remote Sensing, Vol.
39, N. 4, pp 736-748, April 2001.
G. Nunnari., Modelling air pollution time-series by using wavelet functions and genetic
algorithms, (2004), Soft Computing, Springer Verlag, Vol. 8, N° 3, pp. 173-178.
G. Nunnari, An Improved Back Propagation Algorithm to Predict Episodes of Poor Air
Quality, Soft Computing, Springer Verlag, N° 10, pp. 132-139, 2006.
.
338
Project V4 - FLANK
RU V4/11
Scientific Responsible: Giuseppe Puglisi, Senior Researcher, Istituto Nazionale di
Geofisica e Vulcanologia-Sezione di Catania, Piazza Roma 2, 95123 Catania, email:
RU Composition:
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Puglisi Giuseppe
Director of Research
INGV-CT
Participants
Position
Institution
Danilo Reitano (1)
Marcello Dagostino (1)
Orazio Torrisi (1)
Fabrizio Pistagna (1)
Technologist
CTER
CTER
Fellow
Antonino Drago (1)
Fellow
Silvia Cariolo (1)
CoCoPro
Gaetano Russo (1)
CoCoPro
Lizzio Sebastiano (1)
CoCoPro
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
COMETA
Consortium
COMETA
Consortium
COMETA
Consortium
COMETA
Consortium
COMETA
Consortium
Alessandro Bonforte (2)
Boris Behncke (2)
Salvatore Giammanco
(2)
Francesco Guglielmino
(1&2)
Marco Neri (2)
Francesco Obrizzo (2)
Researcher
Post Doc
Researcher
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
Man/Months 2nd
phase
3
Man/Months 1st
phase
1
2
2
0
Man/Months 2nd
phase
1
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
2
0
1
2
0
1
Researcher
INGV-CT
0
0
Researcher
Senior Technologist
INGV-CT
INGV-OV
1
1
1
1
Stefano Branca (3)
Mauro Coltelli (3)
Klaus Gwinner (3)
Emanuela De Beni (3)
Danilo Cavallaro (3)
Researcher
Senior Researcher
Researcher
Researcher
PhD Student
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
DLR Berlin
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
3
1
0
0
0
3
1
0
0
0
Rosa Anna Corsaro (4)
Lucia Miraglia (4)
Lucia Messina (4)
Lucia Civetta (4)
Researcher
Technologist
Technician
Full Professor
3
0
1
1
3
0
1
1
Valeria Di Renzo (4)
Nicole Metrich (4)
Post-doc fellow
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
UNI-NA &
INGV-OV
INGV-OV
CNRS (F)
2
1
2
1
Michael Burton (5)
Tommaso Caltabiano (5)
Giuseppe Salerno (5)
Senior Researcher
Senior Technologist
PhD Student
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
1
1
0
1
1
0
339
Domenico Patanè (6)
Flavio Cannavò (6)
Placido Montalto (6)
Technologist
Technician
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
0
0
0
0
0
0
Alessandro Bonaccorso
(7)
Ciro Del Negro (7)
Gilda Currenti (7)
Rosalba Napoli (7)
Filippo Greco (7)
Gaetana Ganci (7)
Danila Scandura (7)
Gennaro Budetta (7)
Charles Williams (7)
Giovanni Russo (7)
INGV-CT
1
1
Senior Researcher
Researcher
Researcher
Researcher
PhD student
PhD student
Professor
Professor
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Antonello Piombo (7)
Michele Dragoni (7)
Marco Aloisi ( 7)
Mimmo Palano (7)
Falk Amelung (7)
Researcher
Professor
Researcher
Researcher
Professor
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
Warner Marzocchi
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
RPI (USA)
DMIUNICT
DF-UNIBO
DF-UNIBO
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
CSIC –
Miami
(USA)
INGV-RM1
0
0
Numbers from 1 to 7 indicate the Team to witch each participant belongs
The activities of this RU will handle all Tasks of the project, involving
multidisciplinary contributions from the different participants to the RU. In order to
organize the several activities and direct them toward their fully achievement, the
participants are grouped in seven Teams, each aimed at specific activity. So the description
of each Task, will take into account the Team/s in charge of the different activity/activities.
Throughout the project the results of different Teams will be discussed and integrated; to
this aim, in some cases, internal meetings may be organized, eventually by inviting other
RUs, to share the information among the participant to the project.
Task 1
Multidisciplinary data analysis can help researchers to evaluate the correct hazard during
volcanic and/or seismic events connected to the flank dynamics. New software solutions
and available data processing can perform useful relationship between related patterns. The
goal of this activity is to design and to develop a Web-GIS base infrastructure able to
manage and disseminate different kinds of data shared among the different UR
participating to the Project, including those produced during the project. A user-friendly
web interface will be realized, able to guarantee also different access levels and data
representations. The web infrastructure, so designed, will be available to the project
members and suitable to present results outside for scientific requests. This activity will
benefit from the facilities provided from the COMETA consortium (PON 2006,
www.consorzio-cometa.it), in which the INGV participates, and in particular from the
capability to use massive calculation and very large amount of storage space. The design of
plant regarding database, storage, Web/GIS interface will profit form these facilities. Also
the modeling will be developed into the Task 4, may be verified inside the GRID
statement. This activity will be carried out in cooperation with LAVA project.
In details, this activity can be divided into five different steps:
i. Design and development of the complete database infrastructure ensuring the maximum
compatibility with the WOVOdat standards.
340
ii. Implementation of an inventory with data and metadata coming from different research
fields.
iii. Design of the necessary layers and custom software that processes data and presents
them into a GIS interface.
iv. Realization of a Storage Area Network to guarantee redundancy and robustness.
v. Tests
This activity is performed by the Team 1, leaded by D. Reitano.
Task 2
WP-2A) Surface (Integration of the main structural and kinematic features of the on-shore
portion of the “unstable” flanks).
Team 2, leaded by A. Bonforte, will review the structural, geodetic and geochemistry data
regarding several fundamental fault systems that are connected to the movements of the
flanks of the volcano. These are either tectonic structures already reported in the literature,
but only partially described in detail in scientific publications, or faults whose existence is
only suggested on the base of geodetic, seismic or satellite data. This activity will be carry
out through the following phases:
- Available GPS and DInSAR data will be analyzed in order to identify discontinuities in
the ground deformation fields imputable to the activity of the faults dissecting the eastern
flank of the volcano; this will allow to reconstruct the geometry, kinematics and dynamics
of these faults.
- Structural analysis and mapping of the fault systems, selected also considering the
previous phase. Field surveys will be aimed at understanding its kinematics, rates of
movement, and possibile fracturing during aseismic creep, wherever present.
- Maps and/or profiles of distribution of anomalous soil gas emissions (CO2 efflux, 222Rn
and 220Rn activities, and possibly He concentrations) related to outcropping or buried
faults. This analysis will serve to support the field surveys mentioned in the previous point.
WP-2A) Surface (Integration of different data sets to identify the main structural features
of the off-shore portion of the “unstable” flanks and relationships with the on-shore
coastal portion).
New detailed geological and structural investigations of Etna performed for the
realization of the new geological map (Branca et al. 2008) allow to define an update
tectonic setting of the volcano. The main structural lineaments of Etna were extracted by
different data sources integration of: a) geological field mapping; b) analysis of high
resolution DTM; c) historical ground surface rupture mapping (Azzaro et al. 2008). This
data set will be analyzed in order to constrain the age and the kinematics of the tectonic
lineaments for understand their complex relationship. Afterward the analysis will be aimed
at linking the main tectonic structures of Etna eastern flank with the morpho-lineaments
recognized in the Ionian off-shore on the shallow- and deep-water bathymetric maps. The
integrated analyses between on- and off-shore structures should improve the knowledge of
the dynamics of the unstable eastern flank of the volcano. This activity is performed from
Team 3, leaded by S. Branca, in cooperation with RU-05.
Task 3
WP-3A) Long term (last 300-400 years from catalogue data; Analysis of the historical
volcanic events to define the main eruptions probably related to the flank dynamics)
About 3 ka of Etna activity is documented in the historical sources, giving the
volcanologists a unique and very long record for an active volcano, though only after the
341
second half of 17th century this record of both central and flank eruptions is complete and
accurate (Branca and Del Carlo, 2004). Starting from the detailed data-set of the eruptive
record realized by Branca and Del Carlo (2004 and 2005) a new analyses from the second
half of 17th century of the original sources must be done in order to study the relationship
between the intrusive processes of the flank eruptions and the dynamics of the eastern
flank structures. Furthermore, we will investigate the relationship between the central and
flank activity in order to identify the possible presence of systematic trends in eruptive
activity and define the short-term behavior of the volcano. Concerning the flank eruption
the re-examination of the historical source must be focused on the reconstruction of the
surface eruptive processes that have accompanied the magma intrusion. This
methodological approach will be compare with the analysis of the historical seismicity
with the aim of define the occurrence of eruptive events that are strictly related to the
activation of the main seismogenic faults of the Etna flanks, as the case of the 2002-03
eruption. This activity is performed from Team 3, leaded by S. Branca, in cooperation with
RU-04 and RU-10.
In this Work Package several activities will be carried out by different Teams, with
different aims.
Assessment of a complete volcanological data-set
The Team 4 (leaded by R.A. Corsaro) will perform a specific activity to investigate the
relationship among eruptive activity, magmatic process of Mt. Etna shallow plumbing
system and the dynamics volcano eastern flank, throughout the period 1993-2004. To this
purpose, the first year will be aimed at acquiring a complete data set of petrologic data
(petrography, mineral and glass chemistry, major and trace elements composition, Sr-Nd
isotopes, olivine-hosted melt inclusions) on volcanics erupted from 1993 to 2004. These
samples were collected during monitoring activities at INGV-CT, and will be selected on
the base of critical review of current literature. In particular the activity of the Summit
Craters will be focused because a detailed data-set of 2001, 2002-03 and 2004-05 flank
eruptions are already available.
Analysis of each data-set
Teams 2, 4, 5, 6 and 7 (leaded by A. Bonforte, R.A. Corsaro, M. Burton, M. Mattia, G.
Puglisi and A. Bonaccorso, respectively) will perform a temporal and/or spatial analysis of
each data set, owing their expertise on different monitoring disciplines. This activity will
be aimed at characterizing the relationships between each type of data and flank dynamics.
Time series provided from permanent stations (e.g. GPS, seismic, gravity or magnetic
stations) or repeated surveys (e.g. SO2 flux measurements, GPS campaigns) will be
analyzed. Petrologic data will be analyzed to reconstruct the temporal evolution of
magmatic processes occurring in Mt. Etna plumbing system.
Multidisciplinary analysis of the different data-sets.
Teams 2 and 4 (leaded by A. Bonforte and R.A. Corsaro) will carry out a review and the
re-interpretation of eruptive and deformative events during the period 1993-2004, together
with their possible role in the framework of flank instability. This approach will be
strongly multidisciplinary, aimed at categorizing volcanological, petrological, structural,
geodetic, satellite and geochemical data. The ground deformation measured on the eastern
flank of Mt. Etna from 1993 to 2004 will be deeply reviewed and correlated to the eruptive
activity, in order to understand their role in the framework of flank instability; this activity
342
will pay particular attention to the period of the 2001, 2002-2003 and 2004-2005 flank
eruptions. These data will thus allow a comparison between the different data sets, aided
by the construction of space-time diagrams useful to identify anomalies potentially induced
and/or correlated with flank movements and volcanism.
The analysis of time sequences of soil gas data from selected high-degassing sites on the
volcano’s flanks will be carried out, to highlight changes in gas rates/concentrations related
to changes in large-scale ground permeability and/or to shallow magma intrusions.
Finally the comparison of time-related sequences of petrologic data with other temporally
constrained data-sets concerning geology (e.g. eruptive fracture distribution/evolution),
geophysics (e.g. seismicity, ground deformation or gravimetry) and geochemistry of gases
from soils or plumes, should allow inferring the possible relationship between magmatic
processes of Mt. Etna shallow plumbing system and the dynamics of the volcano eastern
flank during the considered period.
Multivariate statistical analysis of the different data-sets
Seismic and deformation monitoring approaches have already proven to be the most
reliable and diagnostic in early detection and tracking of volcanic unrest. In recent years,
automated analysis techniques to uncover previously undetected relationships among data
items – usually defined as “data mining” techniques - have become a powerful method to
extract a base of knowledge from large amounts of data by correlating and modelling
heterogeneous data.
Recently, a joint analysis between seismic and high frequency GPS signals (1 Hz) has led
to observe significant changes before the main events of the 2007 eruption at Stromboli
(Patanè et al, 2007). The problem that arises for an immediate use of this innovative
technique is essentially to characterize the geophysical signals with respect to the
perturbation sources (e.g. meteorological conditions). In this project similar techniques will
be developed to study the dynamics of Mt Etna through signals acquired by permanent
networks, focusing in particular those information relevant to the flank dynamic, e.g. by
analyzing the deformations or seismic signals acquired at stations located in the eastern
flank.
We plan to undertake joint correlation analysis of these multivariate datasets. Our purposes
are the development of both a time series database, by using data acquired from permanent
installations, and a suite of software, witch implements data mining and knowledge
discovery algorithms able to increase our knowledge of the dynamics and the interaction of
different geophysical processes. In this task we apply new signal processing technique for
a better characterization of seismic and geodetic signals, and in particular a wavelet and
cross-wavelet approach is proposed.
In the frequency domain, the using of Wavelet helps to improve significantly the signal
analysis, overcoming the limitations of the Fourier transform (FFT and STFT) to get all
possible information about the temporal localization of a band of frequencies that
otherwise could be lost in the analytical process. In particular, they have advantages over
traditional Fourier methods in analyzing physical situations where the signal contains
discontinuities, sharp spikes or it is affected by a great noise. Moreover wavelet coherence
analysis allows to manage and compare heterogeneous data.
During the project the possibility to introduce in the data mining other datasets will be
taken into account, even by considering other approaches than wavelet, in order to
improve the capability of applying it in a multidisciplinary monitoring system as the
existing one on Mt. Etna is.
Finally, the target of this task is the realization of a prototype system that uses knowledge
discovered from acquired data in order to discover patterns clearly related to the interaction
between flank dynamic and volcanic activity.
343
This activity is performed from Team 6, led by G. Puglisi, in cooperation with RU-10.
Task 4
WP- 4A) Definition of parameters
The 2002-03 eruption represents the first time that a time-dependent deformation has been
observed at Mt. Etna. In order to evaluate which mechanism is involved into the posteruptive deformation process, two time-dependent relaxation models may be used to
interpret the GPS data collected both at permanent and non-permanent stations. Each
model allows evaluating some parameters of the shallow crusts involved in the
deformation event (e.g. viscosity, elastic shear modulus, layers-thickness, etc.) by
considering the geologic and seismic information available for the investigated area. These
parameters could be take into account for future numeric modeling in order to better
understand the ground deformation pattern connected to the flank dynamics of Etna.
Team 7, leaded by A. Bonaccorso, will apply Finite Element modeling to interpret the
ground deformations and to infer on the static stress distribution related to the flank
dynamics.
Geodetic data inversion (SAR, GPS, leveling, EDM) using Finite Element Method –
Dislocation source inversions performed using different kind of static deformation data,
such as GPS displacements, SAR imagery, leveling and EDM measurements, suggest that
slip along a fault is usually not uniform and is better modeled as a distribution of
dislocation sources. To this aim, an automatic procedure for geodetic data inversion will be
developed to estimate slip distribution along the fault interfaces. 3D finite element models
(FEMs) will be implemented to compute synthetic Green’s functions for static
displacement. FEM-generated synthetic Green’s functions will be combined with inverse
methods to obtain the dislocation distributions that explain the observed ground
deformation. Tests on displacement sensitivities to material property distributions will be
also performed. To speed up the computation time, the procedure will be parallelized to
run on cluster.
Volcano-tectonic interaction by means of static stress changes - Coulomb stress changes
computations will be carried out to investigate the complex interaction between magmatic
intrusions and tectonic processes responsible for the kinematics of the seismogenic
structures at Etna volcano. The dynamics of volcanic processes usually involve high strain
and stress changes, which induce strong perturbations in the local stress regime. We
propose: (i) 3D numerical computations of static stress changes to include both the
irregular geometric and the complex tectonic structures for which analytical models are no
longer applicable; (ii) statistical correlation analysis between positive Coulomb stress
changes areas and earthquake locations. The estimate of the variations in the Coulomb
stress together with a statistical analysis of the intercurrence times of seismic and volcanic
crises at Etna could supply a quantitative esteem of the reactivation of seismogenetic
structures.
Thermo-Mechanical modeling – A coupled thermo-mechanical model will be implemented
to evaluate time-dependent changes in long-term deformation and quasi-static stress field.
In volcanic areas, the high temperature around magmatic sources can strongly perturb the
geothermal gradient inducing variations in the rheological behavior in the nearby rocks,
making the elastic approximation inappropriate. Long-term deformation can be affected by
combination of thermoelastic and viscoelastic mechanisms. Numerical models will be
developed to investigate: (i) thermo-elastic deformation caused by thermal changes within
344
the magmatic source as a result of intrusion of new magma; (b) viscoelastic deformation
caused by viscoelastic response of the medium.
Task 5
The Team led by A. Bonforte will consider three aspects of the volcanological and
geological hazard related to the flank dynamics: fissure/fracture system distributions,
aseismic creep and landslides.
The role of tectonic structures related to flank displacement in the triggering or facilitating
of effusive and/or explosive eruptive activity will be evaluated in order to define the areas
of the volcano where fissures/fractures related to flank dynamics may open. To achieve
this goal, we will firstly define, in cooperation with the LAVA project, the distribution of
all fracture/fissure systems, and then we will analyze their kinematics in order to establish
their role in the flank dynamics.
The hazard posed by structures capable to produce aseismic creep will be evaluated. Many
faults involved in the flank movements at Etna do actually move virtually continuously (at
average rates around ~1-2 cm/yr), fracturing the ground, but without producing any
significant seismicity. Such phenomena occur on several parts of the eastern and
southeaster flanks, affecting the stability of numerous man-made structures of varying
importance. This activity will be aimed at quantifying the creep affecting the principal lifelines (e.g. the Catania-Messina highway or the railway).
In some cases, the movement of the faults involved in the movements of the unstable
flanks intersects sub-vertical topographic surfaces, facilitating or triggering, with their
movement, phenomena of gravitational instability (such as the Vena-Presa landslide). In
these cases the role of these tectonic structures in the triggering or facilitating of superficial
gravitational movements will be evaluated.
Prototypal procedures to be used by the Operations Centre of DPC in case of unrest
along the unstable flanks, highlighting possible hazard as a function of the boundary
conditions.
Finally, a few participants to this RU are shared with LAVA project to perform a
preliminary valuation, in cooperative mode with LAVA project, about the possibility to
apply the BET (Bayesian Event Tree) approach for attempting to assess a probabilistic
hazard evaluation of either opening new fissure systems, induced from flank dynamics, or
increasing the stress field on the flank due to new magma intrusions.
1. Database structure, study of different WEB/GIS systems; Site realization; Database
integration.
2. Structural analysis derived from the integration of surface surveys, geodetic data
and soil gas surveys.
3. Definition of the main tectonic features related to flank slip.
4. Preliminary definition of the main eruptive events and their volcanological features
related to the flank dynamic.
5. Petrologic data set (petrography, mineral and glass chemistry, major and trace
elements composition, Sr-Nd isotopes, olivine-hosted melt inclusions) of selected
volcanics from Summit Craters relevant to 1993-2004.
6. Results of the review and the re-interpretation of eruptive and deformative events
during the period 1993-2004 (preliminary evaluations).
345
7. Inversion of time-dependent relaxation models by using GPS data time series.
8. Developing and testing the FEM geodetic inversion procedure.
9. Numerical code for evaluating the viscoelastic deformation.
10. Preliminary results of the parameterization of creep and landslide areas for
volcano-structural hazard evaluations.
11. Map of distribution of the fracture and eruptive fissure systems
1. Data representations, web interfaces, GIS; Final documentations; manuals.
2. Correlation between on- and off-shore tectonic structures and their relationship to
the eastern flank dynamic.
3. Recognition of the eruptive processes of the past 3-4 centuries related to the
activation of the main seismogenic faults.
4. Time-related petrologic sequence correlated with other temporally constrained
data-set concerning geology, geophysics and geochemistry of gases.
5. Results of the review and the re-interpretation of eruptive and deformative events
during the period 1993-2004 (detailed results of specific volcanic events).
6. Evaluation of elastic and geometrical parameters (e.g. viscosity, elastic shear
modulus, layers-thickness, etc.) of the Pernicana area and comparison with
available geological and geophysical information.
7. Coulomb stress change maps on seismogenic structures.
8. Numerical code for evaluating the thermoelastic deformation.
9. FEM geodetic data inversion code.
10. Analysis of the dynamics of the principal structural trends involved in the volcano
flank dynamics. Integration of all the collected data and final volcano-structural
hazard evaluations.
11. Prototypal procedures to be used by the Operations Centre of DPC in case of unrest
along the unstable flanks, highlighting possible hazard as a function of the
boundary conditions.
First year
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
3100
0,00
12000
0,00
13000
0,00
6000
0,00
10000
0,00
4900
0,00
Totale
49000
0,00
Categoria di spesa
346
Importo
previsto
a
Second year
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
2900
0,00
8000
0,00
11000
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
15000
0,00
4100
0,00
Totale
41000
0,00
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
6000
0,00
20000
0,00
24000
0,00
6000
0,00
25000
0,00
9000
0,00
Totale
90000
0,00
Total
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Giuseppe Puglisi born in Catania (Italy) on 6th May 1958. Since 1988 Giuseppe Puglisi has
been Researcher with the CNR-IIV, now the “Sezione di Catania” of INGV. He is senior
scientist at INGV-CT since 2002.
His research activity concerns the dynamic of the volcanoes and surrounding seismogenic
areas investigated by using geodetic techniques, mainly GPS and SAR interferometry. He
also deals, with researches relevant to the ground deformation data inversion problems,
mainly using numerical optimization techniques. In the frame of these research activities
347
he was involved as Contractor or PI on international (ESA, EC) and national (ASI or GNV,
INGV) research projects.
Since 2002 he is responsible of the INGV–CT branch that manages the geodetic
monitoring networks on the Sicilian volcanoes and seismic areas. Since 2004 he is also
coordinator of the INGV geodetic monitoring surveillance activities on the Italian
volcanoes. During the 2002-‘03 and 2007 eruptions of Stromboli volcano he was
responsible of the ground deformations monitoring systems. He is authors or co-authors of
more than fifty papers published in international and national scientific journals as well as
in specialized books, most of them devoted to study of the effects of flank dynamics on
volcanoes, as Mt. Etna and Stromboli.
Bonaccorso, A., Bonforte A., Guglielmino F., Palano M. and Puglisi G. (2006), Composite
ground deformation pattern forerunning the 2004–2005 Mount Etna eruption, J.
Geophys. Res.,111, B12, doi:10.1029/2005JB004206.
Currenti, G., Del Negro, C., Ganci, G. (2007). Modelling of ground deformation and
gravity fields using finite element method: an application to Etna volcano. Geophys. J.
Int., doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03380.x.
Bonforte, A. and Puglisi G. (2006), Dynamics of the eastern flank of Mt. Etna volcano
(Italy) investigated by a dense GPS network, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 153, 3-4, 357-369.
Branca S., Del Carlo P. (2005). Types of eruptions of Etna Volcano AD 1670-2003:
Implications for short-term eruptive behaviour. Bull. Volcanol., 67, 732-742.
Neri M., Guglielmino F. and Rust D. (2007), Flank instability on Mount Etna: radon, radar
interferometry and geodetic data from the southern boundary of the unstable sector. J.
Geophys. Res., 112, doi:10.1029/2006JB004756.
348
Project V4 - FLANK
RU V4/12
Scientific Responsible: Agata Siniscalchi, Associate Professor, Università di Bari
(UNIBA), Dipartimento di Geologia e Geofisica, Campus Universitario, Via Orabona 4,
70125 Bari, email: [email protected], tel: 080-5442376, fax: 080 5442625
RU Composition:
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Agata Siniscalchi
Professore
Associato
UNIBA
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
Man/Months 2nd
phase
3
Man/Months 2nd
phase
2
Participants
Position
Institution
Mariano Loddo
Professore
Ordinario
Professore
Ordinario
Tecnico
Dottorando
Assegnista
Professore
Associato
Ricercatore
Dottorando
UNIBA
Man/Months 1st
phase
2
UNIBA
2
2
UNIBA
UNIBA
UNIBA
UNIBA
2
3
2
1
2
3
1
1
IMAA-CNR-PZ
IMAA-CNR-PZ
2
2
2
2
Domenico
Schiavone
Cosimo Magrì
Pierpaolo Moretti
Ida Diaferia
Marcello De Giosa
Marianna Balasco
Gerardo Romano
Task 2
WP-2B) Depth
In the framework of the project INGV-DPC 2005-2007 electrical resistivity tomography
(ERT) and magnetotelluric (MT) techniques were applied along three profiles crossing the
Pernicana fault system (PFS) on the Eastern Etnean flank. By the inversion of such data
detailed resistivity model were obtained, which well define three resistivity main layers:
1) a shallow resistive layer (thousands ohm.m) related to the volcanic cover, reaching its
major thickness towards the south in each section and decreasing from west to east.
2) a conductive intermediate layer related to volcanic sedimentary substratum, with higher
conductivity values in correspondence of the fault. Its thickness is greater in the unstable
sector and major thickness are assumed towards the south.
3) a resistive bedrock.
The recovered depth of the horizon between the conductive zone and the resistive bedrock
surprisingly matches with the location of earthquake hypocenters recovered by
seismological studies. This horizon is characterized even by an abrupt change of the
geoelectrical strikes from about 5° to 35°-40°. By such results we retain that it probably
represents the basal decollement of the mobile sector within the PFS.
On the basis of these results, these techniques can be retained suitable to contribute to the
volume evaluation of the mobile sector. In particular we organize the UR activity both:
- on the acquisition of electromagnetic data in unexplored areas of the flank, and
349
- in the application of a recent statistical approach for the interpretation of the
resistivity models in order to control the association between the electrical layers and the
lithological units characterizing the flank. This process is considered a significant
improvement in order to carefully define the geometrical parameters for the numerical
models developed by Task 4.
In the present research project new magnetotelluric soundings will be performed in
the Northern part of the Eastern Etnean flank in order to further constrain the nature and
depth of the inferred basal decollement (Pernicana fault). Therefore, an areal MT
investigation is planned along the westernmost part of the Pernicana Fault; in the same area
a self-potential (SP) survey will be performed. These two activities are focused to evaluate,
in addition to the depth of the decollement, the relationship between the hydrothermal
system related to the volcano and the structures characterizing the PFS and to contribute to
a better definition of the structural and lithostratigraphic arrangement of the Rift area.
In the Southern portion of the flank we planned a MT profile (Mascalcia-Acireale)
perpendicular to the faults and to the coast; three ERT segments will be performed along
the same profile to ensure higher resolution in the shallower part of the investigated
section, especially across the main discontinuities, in order to define the relationships
among different structures. All the MT acquisition will be remote referenced to permit
noise reduction in the urbanized areas where longer acquisition time will be ensured. The
exploration depth of this survey is scheduled to be at least 8-10 km.
The dimensionality and directionality analysis of the MT transfer function will be
supported even by the analysis of the magnetic transfer function, in order to recognize
eventual electrical anisotropic effects.
An accurate evaluation of the resistivity models will be performed via the joint
interpretation with other independent geophysical models (e.g. density, velocity) available
in the same areas. This stage will be quantitatively approached by statistical methods of
correlation among multiple physical properties. During the first year, this strategy will be
applied on the resistivity models obtained in the previous project.
1. ERT profiles (acquisition and modeling) on the southern block.
2. MT and SP data acquisition in the North.
3. Integrated interpretation of the previous resistivity model with velocity and density
models.
4. MT data acquisition along the Mascalucia-Acireale profile (30%).
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
350
Finishing MT data acquisition along the Mascalucia-Acireale profile.
Map of distribution of the geoelectrical strikes at different estimated depth.
SP map and Resistivity model (2D o 3D) for the areal survey in NE Rift area.
Resistivity model across the MT profile Mascalucia-Acireale.
Integrated interpretation of the profile Mascalucia-Acireale.
First year
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
4000
800000,700000
8000
0,00
20000
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
4000
0,00
4000
0,00
446000,00
40000
0,00444
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
2500
0,00
5000
0,00
14000
0,00
Totale
Second year
Categoria di spesa
0,00
1000
0,00
2500
0,00
0,00
25000
0,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
6500
0,0
13000
0,00
Totale
Total
Categoria di spesa
351
34000
0,00
0,00
5000
0,00
6500
0,00
65000
0,00
Totale
0,00
Agata Siniscalchi received the degree in physics (University of Naples) in 1984 and PhD
(Geophysics and Volcanology) in 1989. She made research and continuing education on
electromagnetic methods at the Institut für Geophysik und Metereologie of the University
of Münster (Germany) and at the Macquarie University in Sidney (Australia). From 1989
to 1998 she was researcher at the GeomareSud Institute (CNR, Naples), where she was
member of the Scientific Committee.
From 1998 she is Associate Professor in Applied Geophysics at the University of Bari, II
Faculty of Science.
In the framework of applied geophysics, her research activity is mainly devoted to the
methodological and applicative problems of the electromagnetic methods, expecially
magnetotellurics. The main methodological results were the definition of two new
electromagnetic prospecting techniques, studies on the electrical dispersion effects in
magnetotellurics and signal data processing. The experimental research, involving
magnetotellurics integrated with other geophysical methods, interested geothermal (the
Siena Graben and Western Alps), volcanic (Phlaegrean Fields, Vesuvius and Etna) and
seismic areas (Colfiorito, Val d'Agri and Pollino fault areas) or structural studies in the
framework of the CROP 03 and CROP 04 projects.
Scientific partner of projects financied by MIUR, GNDT, INGV-DPC and ENI.
Agata Siniscalchi is author of 45 papers on international and national journals. She is
member of SEG (Society of Exploration Geophysicists) and of EAEG (European
Association of Exploration Geophysicists).
Diaferia I., M. Barchi, M. Loddo, D. Schiavone, Siniscalchi A. (2006) – Detailed imaging
of tectonic structures by multiscale Earth resistivity tomographies: The Colfiorito normal
faults (central Italy). Geophys. Res. Lett. vol. 33, ISSN: 0094-8276.
doi:10.1029/2006GL025828 L09305.
Mauriello P, Patella D, Petrillo Z, Siniscalchi A., Iuliano T. and Del Negro C. (2004) – A
geophysical study of the Mt.Etna volcanic area. In: The Mt. Etna Volcano, AGU
Geophysical Monograph Series, Ed.s S. Calvari, A. Bonaccorso, M. Coltelli, C. Del
Negro, and S. Falsaperla., AGU, pp. 273-291 , ISBN: 0-87590-408-4.
Patella D., Petrillo Z., Siniscalchi A., Improta L., Di Fiore B. (2005) – A magnetotelluric
study about the CROP-04 transect across the Southern Apennines, Italy. In “Crop-Crustal
seismic exploration of the Mediterranean region”, Ed I. Finetti, Elsevier, ISBN: 0-44450693-4.
Schiavone D., Loddo M. (2007) – 3-D density model of Mt. Etna volcano (Southern Italy).
J. Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 164, pp. 161–175, ISSN: 0377-0273.
352
Balasco M., I. Diaferia, A. Giocoli, V. Lapenna, M. Loddo, C. Magrì, S. Piscitelli, E.
Rizzo, G. Romano, A. Siniscalchi e S. Tripaldi. (2008) – Structural imaging of the
Pernicana Fault System through the joint use of electrical and magnetotelluric
investigation. Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 10, EGU General Assembly 2008.
353
354
PROJECT V5 – SPEED
355
356
Project V5 - SPEED
Scientific projects included in the DPC-Campania Region
Agreement signed on 07.21.2006
Coordinators:
Giovanni Macedonio, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di NapoliOV, Via Diocleziano 328, 80124 Napoli, Italy, [email protected]
Franco Barberi, Dipartimento Scienze Geologiche, Università Roma Tre, Largo S.L.
Murialdo, 1, 00146 Roma, Italy, [email protected]
Objectives
The Agreement signed on 07.21.2006 between the Civil Protection Department (DPC)
and the Regional Council of Regione Campania (Civil Protection Assessorship) includes
the funding of research and monitoring activity aimed at risk mitigation in case of
reactivation of Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei. The INGV is identified as one of the
participants to project realization. The same Agreement establishes that some of the
projects are funded to INGV directly from the Campania Region (started at the beginning
of 2007), whereas the activities reported below are included among those within the
INGV-DPC Agreement.
The phases of the research activity and the expected products are established in the
frame of the DPC-Regione Campania Agreement. The research themes are briefly reported
below.
SPEED-1: Hazard due to pre-sin-eruptive earthquakes – Evaluation of the seismic
hazard and site effect in the volcanic areas Vesuvius and Phlegrean Fields
An analysis of the short-term (pre-eruptive period) and long-term (expected scenarios)
seismic hazard will be performed. The study of the short-term hazard will be based on the
analysis of the catalogue of seismic events related to the bradiseismic crisis of Campi
Flegrei in 1982-1984, and of the background seismicity at Vesuvius. The analysis of
seismic catalogues for both volcanic areas will allow the identification of seismogenetic
areas of interest, and the definition of maximum and minimum magnitudes. Besides this,
the catalogues will be also employed to estimate the recurrence laws and the seismicity
rates (average and for classes of magnitude). An ad hoc attenuation relationship for the
areas of interest will be evaluated for the definition of the effects of selected earthquakes.
Starting from the knowledge of the anelastic attenuation in the area, of the stress drop and
of the magnitude of selected earthquakes, a stochastic simulation method will be employed
to obtain a database of synthetic accelerograms from which the attenuation laws for the
relevant strong motion parameters will be inferred. In order to estimate the expected
maximum magnitude earthquakes, the characteristic earthquake approach will be used. The
hybrid technique developed by Convertito et al. will be employed. Such a technique
implies joining the classical analysis of seismic hazard with a deterministic method for the
computation of the effects of the selected earthquake starting from a database of synthetic
accelerograms.
Additionally, a systematic analysis of existing experimental estimates of the site
transfer function will be performed. On that basis, we will identify the sites on which to
357
implement further investigation. In particular, for each site where a seismic sensor is
currently deployed, the followings will be obtained: i) the site transfer function using
spectral ratios between the shear-wave spectrum and the spectral average at all available
sites; ii) the site transfer function using the pseudo-receiver function method, based on the
estimate of the S-wave spectral ratios among the ground motion components; iii) the site
transfer function using the Nakamura method; iv) the site transfer function with the method
of direct inversion of direct S-wave spectra.
SPEED-2: Hazard due to pyroclastic fallout
The aim of this project in its first phase is the transfer in digital format of maps of
pyroclastic ground load at Campi Flegrei due to explosive eruptions with small, medium
and large size. Such maps are based on the simulation of probable events, by using a wind
field estimated from historic catalogues referring to large-scale circulation, and/or
estimated from the interpolation of data from the Military Aeronautics. In a second phase,
semi-automathic procedures will be engineered and operated in order to generate ground
ash load and atmospheric ash concentration maps on the basis of the current wind regime
or of that from weather forecasting (36-48 hours in advance). The information regarding
ground load and atmospheric concentration will be available in digital format as well as in
graphics/pictures, and will be made available to the Functional Centers of Civil Protection
through telecom connections.
Expected products
SPEED-1:
•
•
•
•
Seismic hazard curves and uniform hazard spectra for specific sites in the
Vesuvian and Phlegrean areas
Seismic hazard maps based on classical approach for different return periods
and different strong motion parameters of engineering interest
Hazard scenario map based on a deterministic approach
Hazard scenario maps based on a hybrid approach
SPEED-2:
•
•
Transfer to the Functional Centers of Civil Protection of maps of pyroclastic
ground load
semi-automathic procedures for the generation of ground ash load and
atmospheric ash concentration maps
Scientific and administrative set up, and Project evaluation
Due to its definition in the frame of a previous INGV-Campanian Region Agreement,
the present project is characterized by an administrative organization which differs from
that of the previous V1-V4 Projects. Particularly, the cost items are different. Also, the
scientific themes and the expected products have already been approved by the two parties
signing the Agreement, therefore, an initial phase of evaluation before project start by the
International Evaluation Committee, which is part of the process of approval of Projects
V1-V4, is not expected for Project V5. On the contrary, periodic evaluation of Project V5
by the IEC is required as for the other projects.
358
Overall activities included in the DPC-Campanian Region SPEED Project
The following table illustrates the whole activities foreseen within the DPC-Campanian
Region SPEED Project, of which the present INGV-DPC V5-SPEED Project is part. The
Tasks in Italic are not included in the present project activity being developed in the frame
of the INGV-DPC Agreement.
TASK
Connection of the
Functional Center
of Regione
Campania with the
INGV-OV
monitoring system
and
Development of the
monitoring system
at Ischia island
Hazard due to presin-eruptive
earthquakes
INSTITUTION
RESPONSIBLE
INGV-OV
(Martini)
FUNDING
INSTITUTION
NOTES
CR (Campanian
Region)
Not in the INGVDPC Agreement
DPC
Included in the
INGV-DPC
Agreement (not
within the present
Project activity)
SPEED-1 –
Included in the
INGV-DPC
Agreement
SPEED-2 –
Included in the
INGV-DPC
Agreement
Hazard due to
pyroclastic fallout
INGV-OV and
University Federico
II
(Del Pezzo – Zollo)
INGV-OV
(Macedonio)
Hazard due to
pyroclastic flows
INGV-Pisa
(Neri)
CR
CR
Hazard due to
floods and lahars
Data collection and
GIS
Vulnerability
CINECA
(Erbacci)
INGV-Pisa
(Pareschi)
LUPT
(Zuccaro)
LUPT (Zuccaro)
CAMBRIDGE
(Spence-Baxter)
INGV-Pisa
(Neri)
DPC
CAMBRIDGE
(Aspinall-Baxter)
DPC
LUPT
(Zuccaro)
DPC
Damage scenarios
DPC
DPC
CR
DPC
DPC
CR
359
Model of
intervention for the
protection of the
cultural heritage
Investigation on
volcanic risk
perception in the
Vesuvian-Phlegrean
area
CAMBRIDGE
(Spence-BaxterAspinall)
Superintendency
BB.CC.
DPC
Roma 3
(Barberi)
DPC
CR
TOTAL financial assignment (euros) for the INGV-DPC V5-SPEED
Project
DESCRIPTION
Research contracts
Consumables
Travels in Italy
Travels abroad
Sub-total
Overhead (20% of
sub-total)
TOTAL
FIRST PHASE
SECOND PHASE
60000
7000
3500
4500
75000
15000
80000
8000
1000
7000
96000
19200
TOTAL 1st+2nd
PHASES
140000
15000
4500
11500
171000
34200
90000
115200
205200
Research Units involved, and financial assignment
RU V5/01
Responsible: Aldo Zollo, Full Professor, Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche – Università
degli Studi di Napoli “Federico II”, via Cinthia , email: [email protected], tel:
081/2420315, fax: 081/2420334
Financial assignment (in euros):
DESCRIPTION
24 months research
contract (“assegno di
ricerca”)
Consumables
Travels in Italy
Travels abroad
Sub-total
Overhead (20% of
sub-total)
TOTAL
360
FIRST PHASE
SECOND PHASE
TOTAL 1st+2nd
PHASES
20000
20000
40000
2500
2500
2500
25000
5000
2500
25000
5000
5000
2500
2500
50000
10000
30000
30000
60000
RU V5/02
Responsible: Edoardo Del Pezzo, Geofisico Ordinario, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica
e Vulcanologia-Sezione di Napoli Osservatorio Vesuviano, Via Diocleziano, 328, 80124
Napoli, email: [email protected], tel: 081-6108324, fax: 081-6108323
DESCRIPTION
24 months research
ricerca”)
Consumables
Travels in Italy
Travels abroad
Sub-total
Overhead (20% of
sub-total)
TOTAL
FIRST PHASE
SECOND PHASE
TOTAL 1st+2nd
PHASES
20000
20000
40000
2500
2500
5000
2500
25000
5000
2500
25000
5000
5000
50000
10000
30000
30000
60000
RU V5/03
Responsible: Giovanni Macedonio, Research Director, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica
e Vulcanologia-Sezione di Napoli Osservatorio Vesuviano, Via Diocleziano, 328, 80124
Napoli, email: [email protected], tel: 081-6108324, fax: 081-6108323
DESCRIPTION
30 months research
ricerca”)
Consumables
Travels in Italy
Travels abroad
Sub-total
Overhead (20% of
sub-total)
TOTAL
FIRST PHASE
SECOND PHASE
TOTAL 1st+2nd
PHASES
20000
40000
60000
2000
1000
2000
25000
5000
3000
1000
2000
46000
9200
5000
2000
4000
71000
14200
30000
55200
85200
361
362
Appendix 1
Appendix 1.
INGV-DPC Projects in Volcanology – 2007-2009
List of Personnel Involved
NOTE: In the columns of Months/Person, the Project number and RU Responsible name
are also reported. If a name is not reported, the person him/herself is RU Responsible. The
letter “C” after the Project number means that the person is also Project Coordinator.
INGV
Name
Position
Institute
Month/P 1° yr
Month/P 2° yr
Acera C.
Aloisi M.
Alparone S.
Tecnico
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
INGV-CNT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
Amici S.
Andronico D.
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
INGV-CNT
INGV-CT
Aristizabal A.G.
Avino R.
Azzaro R.
Barberi G.
Behncke B.
PhD Stud.
Ricerc.
Primo Ric.
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
INGV-BO
INGV-OV
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-Rm1
Belviso P.
Berrino G.
Bertagnini A.
Biale E.
Bianco F.
Tecnico
Ricerc.
Primo Ric.
Tecnico
Primo Ric.
INGV-OV
INGV-OV
INGV-PI
INGV-CT
INGV-OV
Bisconti L.
Ass. Ric.
INGV-PI
Bisson M.
Bobrowski N.
Bonaccorso A.
Tecnol.
Ricerc.
Dir. Ricerca
INGV-PI
INGV-PA
INGV-CT
Bonforte A.
Ricerc.
INGV-CT
Branca S.
Ricerc.
INGV-CT
Braun T.
Bruno V.
Tecnol.
PhD Stud.
INGV-Rm1
INGV-CT/UniCt
Brusca L.
Budetta G.
Tecnol.
Dir. Ricerca
INGV-PA
INGV-CT
Buongiorno F.
Dir. Tecnol.
INGV-CNT
Burton M.
Primo Ric.
INGV-CT
1 (V2, Carapezza)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V1, Del Pezzo)
1 (V3, Gresta)
1 (V4, Cocina)
2 (V3, Lombardo)
1 (V2, Calvari)
1 (V3, Gresta)
2 (V1, Marzocchi)
4 (V1, Chiodini)
3 (V4)
2 (V4, Cocina)
0 (V3, Del Negro)
0 (V4, Acocella)
0 (V3, Crisci)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
2 (V1, Civetta)
3 (V1, Chiodini)
4 (V2, C)
0 (V2, Calvari)
2 (V1, Del Pezzo)
2 (V4, Giunchi)
0 (V1, Saccorotti)
0 (V4, Mazzarini)
0 (V4, Mazzarini)
3 (V1, Chiodini)
2 (V2, Mattia)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
0 (V3, Gresta)
2 (V4, Puglisi)
3 (V3, Del Negro)
3 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V2, Dellino)
0 (V1, Del Pezzo)
2 (V2, Mattia)
1 (V2, Rizzo)
3 (V3, Del Negro)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
2 (V2, Doumaz)
2 (V3, Lombardo)
1 (V2, Aiuppa)
1 (V2, Calvari)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V2, Carapezza)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V1, Del Pezzo)
1 (V3, Gresta)
1 (V4, Cocina)
2 (V3, Lombardo)
1 (V2, Calvari)
1 (V3, Gresta)
2 (V1, Marzocchi)
4 (V1, Chiodini)
3 (V4)
3 (V4, Cocina)
0 (V3, Del Negro)
0 (V4, Acocella)
0 (V3, Crisci)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
2 (V1, Civetta)
3 (V1, Chiodini)
4 (V2, C)
0 (V2, Calvari)
2 (V1, Del Pezzo)
2 (V4, Giunchi)
0 (V1, Saccorotti)
0 (V4, Mazzarini)
0 (V4, Mazzarini)
3 (V1, Chiodini)
2 (V2, Mattia)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
0 (V3, Gresta)
2 (V4, Puglisi)
3 (V3, Del Negro)
3 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V2, Dellino)
0 (V1, Del Pezzo)
2 (V2, Mattia)
1 (V2, Rizzo)
3 (V3, Del Negro)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
2 (V2, Doumaz)
2 (V3, Lombardo)
1 (V2, Aiuppa)
1 (V2, Calvari)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
363
Calderone L.
Calderoni G.
Caliro S.
Caltabiano T.
Tecnico
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
Primo Tecnol.
INGV-PA
INGV-Rm1
INGV-OV
INGV-CT
Calvari S.
Camarda M.
Primo Ric.
Post-doc
INGV-CT
INGV-PA
Camassi R.
Cannavò F.
Primo Tecnol.
Tecnol.
INGV-BO
INGV-CT
Capasso G.
Cara F.
Carandente A.
Carapezza M.L.
Carbone D.
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
Tecnologo
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
INGV-PA
INGV-Rm1
INGV-OV
INGV-Rm1
INGV-CT
Casarotti E.
Ricerc.
INGV-Rm1
Castellano M.
Castelli V.
Cavallaio D.
Cavallo A.
Primo Tecnol.
Ricerc.
PhD Stud.
Tecnologo
INGV-OV
INGV-BO
INGV-CT
INGV-Rm1
Chiarabba C.
Chiodini G
Cianetti S.
Primo Ric.
Dir. Ricerca
Ricerc.
INGV-CNT
INGV-OV
INGV-Rm1
Ciraudo A.
Cocina O.
Post-doc
Ricerc.
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
Colini L.
Ricerc.
INGV-CNT
Coltelli M.
Primo Ric.
INGV-CT
Corsaro R.A.
Ricerc.
INGV-CT
Cosenza P.
Costa A.
Cristaldi A.
Currenti G.
Tecnico
Ricerc.
Ass. Ric.
Ricerc.
INGV-PA
INGV-OV
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
Cusano P.
Tecnico
INGV-OV
D’Agostino M.
Tecnico
INGV-CT
D’Amico S.
D’Amico V.
D’Auria L.
De Beni E.
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
Borsista
INGV-CT
INGV-MI
INGV-OV
INGV-CT
De Cesare W.
De Gori P.
De Gregorio S.
Tecnol.
Ricerc.
Post-doc
INGV-OV
INGV-CNT
INGV-PA
364
2 (V2, Rizzo)
2 (V4, Giunchi)
4 (V1, Chiodini)
1 (V2, Aiuppa)
1 (V2, Calvari)
1 (V3, Gresta)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
3 (V2, C)
1 (V2, Rizzo)
0 (V4, Federico)
1 (V4, Azzaro)
0 (V2, Mattia)
0 (V4, Nunnari)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V2, Rizzo)
6 (V4, Giunchi)
3 (V1, Civetta)
3 (V2)
1 (V1, Chiodini)
3 (V2, Calvari)
0 (V4, Acocella)
1 (V2, Mattia)
1 (V4, Giunchi)
3 (V1, Del Pezzo)
2 (V4, Azzaro)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V1, Freda)
1 (V4, Giunchi)
0 (V4, Mazzarini)
1 (V4, Cocina)
4 (V1)
1 (V2, Mattia)
2 (V4, Giunchi)
0 (V3, Del Negro)
2 (V4)
1 (V3, Gresta)
1 (V2, Doumaz)
1 (V3, Lombardo)
2 (V3, Del Negro)
0 (V3, Marsella)
1 (V4, Chiocci)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V2, Calvari)
1 (V3, Gresta)
3 (V4, Puglisi)
2 (V2, Rizzo)
1 (V1, Chiodini)
0 (V2, Calvari)
0 (V3, Del Negro)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
2 (V1, Saccorotti)
3 (V1, Del Pezzo)
2 (V3, Del Negro)
2 (V4, Puglisi)
4 (V4, Azzaro)
0.5 (V4, Azzaro)
2 (V2, Martini)
0 (V3, Del Negro)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V2, Martini)
2 (V4, Cocina)
1 (V2, Rizzo)
2 (V2, Rizzo)
2 (V4, Giunchi)
4 (V1, Chiodini)
1 (V2, Aiuppa)
1 (V2, Calvari)
1 (V3, Gresta)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
3 (V2, C)
1 (V2, Rizzo)
0 (V4, Federico)
1 (V4, Azzaro)
0 (V2, Mattia)
0 (V4, Nunnari)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V2, Rizzo)
3 (V4, Giunchi)
3 (V1, Civetta)
3 (V2)
1 (V1, Chiodini)
3 (V2, Calvari)
0 (V4, Acocella)
1 (V2, Mattia)
1 (V4, Giunchi)
3 (V1, Del Pezzo)
1 (V4, Azzaro)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V1, Freda)
1 (V4, Giunchi)
0 (V4, Mazzarini)
1 (V4, Cocina)
4 (V1)
1 (V2, Mattia)
2 (V4, Giunchi)
3 (V3, Del Negro)
3 (V4)
1 (V3, Gresta)
1 (V2, Doumaz)
3 (V3, Lombardo)
2 (V3, Del Negro)
0 (V3, Marsella)
1 (V4, Chiocci)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V2, Calvari)
1 (V3, Gresta)
3 (V4, Puglisi)
2 (V2, Rizzo)
1 (V1, Chiodini)
0 (V2, Calvari)
0 (V3, Del Negro)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
2 (V1, Saccorotti)
3 (V1, Del Pezzo)
2 (V3, Del Negro)
2 (V4, Puglisi)
4 (V4, Azzaro)
0.5 (V4, Azzaro)
2 (V2, Martini)
0 (V3, Del Negro)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V2, Martini)
2 (V4, Cocina)
1 (V2, Rizzo)
Appendix 1
Del Carlo P.
Del Gaudio P.
Ricerc.
Tecnologo
INGV-CT
INGV-Rm1
Del Negro C.
Primo Ric.
INGV-CT
Del Pezzo E.
Geof. Ord.
INGV-OV
De Siena L.
Di Giulio G.
Di Renzo V.
PhD Stud UniBo INGV-OV
Ricerc.
INGV-Rm1
Post-doc
INGV-OV
Di Roberto A.
Di Vito M.
D’Oriano C.
Doumaz F.
Esposito A.
Falsaperla S.
Favalli M.
Post-doc
Ricerc.
Post-doc
Primo Ric.
Ricerc.
Primo Ric.
Primo Ric.
INGV-PI
INGV-OV
INGV-PI
INGV-CNT
INGV-OV
INGV-CT
INGV-PI
Favara R.
Dir. Ricerca
INGV-PA
Federico C.
Ricerc.
INGV-PA
Fornaciai A.
Freda C.
Gagliano Candela E.
Galluzzo D.
Gambino S.
Borsista
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
Tecnico
Ricerc.
INGV-PI
INGV-Rm1
INGV-PA
INGV-OV
INGV-CT
Ganci G.
Post-doc
INGV-CT
Giammanco S.
Ricerc.
INGV-CT
Giampiccolo E.
Giudice G.
Giudice S.
Giudicepietro F.
Giuffrida G.
Giunchi C.
Ricerc.
Primo Tecnol.
PhD Stud.
Ricerc.
Tecnol.
Ricerc.
INGV-CT
INGV-PA
INGV-CT
INGV-OV
INGV-PA
INGV-Rm1
Granieri D.
Grassa F.
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
INGV-OV
INGV-PA
Greco F.
Tecnol.
INGV-CT
Grezio A.
Guida R.
Guglielmino F.
Gurrieri S.
Ass. Ric.
Tecnol.
Ricerc.
Primo Ric.
INGV-BO
INGV-PA
INGV-CT
INGV-PA
Herault A.
Inguaggiato S.
Borsista
Primo Ric.
INGV-CT
INGV-PA
Isola I.
Tecnol.
INGV-PI
Landi P.
Primo Ric.
INGV-PI
0 (V4, Federico)
3 (V4, Mazzarini)
2 (V1, Freda)
1 (V4, Giunchi)
5 (V3, C)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
3 (V1, C)
V5
10 (V1, Del Pezzo)
6 (V4, Giunchi)
3 (V1, Civetta)
2 (V4, Puglisi)
0 (V2, Bertagnini)
2 (V1, Civetta)
0 (V2, Bertagnini)
4 (V2)
2 (V2, Martini)
2 (V4, Giunchi)
3 (V3)
0 (V4, Mazzarini)
1 (V3, Gresta)
2 (V4, Federico)
3 (V4)
1 (V2, Rizzo)
1 (V3, Favalli)
3 (V1)
1 (V4, Federico)
2 (V1, Del Pezzo)
2 (V1, Del Pezzo)
0 (V3, Gresta)
1 (V4, Cocina)
3 (V3, Del Negro)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V2, Calvari)
1 (V2, Carapezza)
1 (V3, Del Negro)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
3 (V4, Cocina)
2 (V2, Aiuppa)
7 (V3, Del Negro)
2 (V2, Martini)
1 (V2, Aiuppa)
2 (V4)
1 (V1, Bonafede)
2 (V2, Mattia)
4 (V1, Chiodini)
2 (V1, Chiodini)
2 (V2, Rizzo)
3 (V3, Del Negro)
0 (V3, Gresta)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
0 (V1, Saccorotti)
1 (V2, Aiuppa)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V2, Aiuppa)
1 (V4, Federico)
3 (V3, Del Negro)
3 (V1, Chiodini)
1 (V2, Rizzo)
0 (V4, Mazzarini)
0 (V3, Favalli)
3 (V2, Bertagnini)
0 (V4, Federico)
3 (V4, Mazzarini)
2 (V1, Freda)
1 (V4, Giunchi)
5 (V3, C)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
3 (V1, C)
V5
0 (V1, Del Pezzo)
3 (V4, Giunchi)
3 (V1, Civetta)
2 (V4, Puglisi)
0 (V2, Bertagnini)
2 (V1, Civetta)
0 (V2, Bertagnini)
4 (V2)
2 (V2, Martini)
2 (V4, Giunchi)
3 (V3)
0 (V4, Mazzarini)
1 (V3, Gresta)
2 (V4, Federico)
3 (V4)
1 (V2, Rizzo)
1 (V3, Favalli)
3 (V1)
1 (V4, Federico)
2 (V1, Del Pezzo)
2 (V1, Del Pezzo)
0 (V3, Gresta)
1 (V4, Cocina)
3 (V3, Del Negro)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V2, Calvari)
1 (V2, Carapezza)
1 (V3, Del Negro)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
3 (V4, Cocina)
2 (V2, Aiuppa)
0 (V3, Del Negro)
2 (V2, Martini)
1 (V2, Aiuppa)
2 (V4)
1 (V1, Bonafede)
2 (V2, Mattia)
4 (V1, Chiodini)
2 (V1, Chiodini)
2 (V2, Rizzo)
3 (V3, Del Negro)
0 (V3, Gresta)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
0 (V1, Saccorotti)
1 (V2, Aiuppa)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V2, Aiuppa)
1 (V4, Federico)
3 (V3, Del Negro)
3 (V1, Chiodini)
1 (V2, Rizzo)
0 (V4, Mazzarini)
0 (V3, Favalli)
3 (V2, Bertagnini)
365
Langer H.
La Rocca M.
Liotta M.
Liuzzo M.
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
Tecnol.
INGV-CT
INGV-OV
INGV-PA
INGV-PA
Lodato L.
Lombardo V.
Longo A.
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
INGV-CT
INGV-CNT
INGV-PI
Longo M.
Macedonio G.
Madonia P.
Maiolino V.
Mangiacapra A.
Marotta E.
Martelli M.
Martini M.
Marziano G.I.
Marzocchi W.
Tecnol.
Dir. Ricerca
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
PostDoc
Tecnico
Tecnol.
Dir. Tecnol.
Borsista
Dir. Ricerca
INGV-PA
INGV-OV
INGV-PA
INGV-CT
INGV-OV
INGV-OV
INGV-PA
INGV-OV
INGV-PA
INGV-BO
Mattia M.
Ricerc.
INGV-CT
Mazzarini F.
Ricerc.
INGV-PI
Mele G.
Messina L.
Primo Ric.
Tecnico
INGV-Rm1
INGV-CT
Milana G.
Tecnologo
INGV-Rm1
Minopoli C.
Miraglia L.
Tecnico
Tecnologo
INGV-OV
INGV-CT
Misiti V.
Tecnologo
INGV-Rm1
Montagna C.P.
Montalto P.
Ass. Ricerca
Tecnico
INGV-PI
INGV-CT
Moretti R.
Ricerc. Geof.
INGV-OV
Mostaccio A.
Musacchio G.
Musacchio M.
Tecnico
Ricerc.
Ass. Ric.
INGV-CT
INGV-MI
INGV-CNT
Musumeci C.
Napoli R.
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
Neri M.
Ricerc.
INGV-CT
Nigro F.
Obrizzo F.
Orazi M.
Orsi G.
Ricerc.
Primo Ric.
Tecnol.
Prof. Ord.
INGV-PA
INGV-OV
INGV-OV
INGV-OV
366
1 (V2, Rotolo)
2 (V4, Giunchi)
3 (V1, Del Pezzo)
2 (V2, Rizzo)
2 (V2, Aiuppa)
1 (V3, Gresta)
2 (V4, Federico)
3 (V2, Calvari)
3 (V3)
0 (V1, Saccorotti)
0 (V4, Mazzarini)
1 (V2, Rizzo)
V5, C
2 (V2, Rizzo)
5 (V4, Azzaro)
3 (V1, Civetta)
2 (V2, Calvari)
2 (V2, Rizzo)
1 (V2)
2 (V2, Rizzo)
2 (V1)
1 (V3, Gresta)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
2 (V2)
1 (V1, Del Pezzo)
3 (V4)
0 (V3, Del Negro)
1 (V3, Favalli)
1 (V2, Carapezza)
1 (V2, Calvari)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V1, Del Pezzo)
2 (V4, Giunchi)
4 (V1, Chiodini)
0 (V2, Calvari)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
2 (V1, Freda)
1 (V2, Carapezza)
0 (V4, Mazzarini)
0 (V2, Mattia)
0 (V4, Nunnari)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
2 (V1, Chiodini)
3 (V2, Aiuppa)
2 (V4, Cocina)
2 (V4, Azzaro)
1 (V2, Doumaz)
1 (V3, Lombardo)
3 (V4, Cocina)
3 (V3, Del Negro)
0 (V3, Gresta)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V3, Del Negro)
0 (V4, Acocella)
0 (V4, Mazzarini)
0 (V3, Crisci)
0 (V3, Favalli)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
0 (V4, Federico)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V2, Martini)
1 (V1, Civetta)
1 (V2, Rotolo)
2 (V4, Giunchi)
3 (V1, Del Pezzo)
2 (V2, Rizzo)
2 (V2, Aiuppa)
1 (V3, Gresta)
2 (V4, Federico)
3 (V2, Calvari)
3 (V3)
0 (V1, Saccorotti)
0 (V4, Mazzarini)
1 (V2, Rizzo)
V5, C
2 (V2, Rizzo)
5 (V4, Azzaro)
3 (V1, Civetta)
2 (V2, Calvari)
2 (V2, Rizzo)
1 (V2)
2 (V2, Rizzo)
2 (V1)
1 (V3, Gresta)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
2 (V2)
1 (V1, Del Pezzo)
3 (V4)
0 (V3, Del Negro)
1 (V3, Favalli)
1 (V2, Carapezza)
1 (V2, Calvari)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V1, Del Pezzo)
2 (V4, Giunchi)
4 (V1, Chiodini)
0 (V2, Calvari)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
2 (V1, Freda)
1 (V2, Carapezza)
0 (V4, Mazzarini)
0 (V2, Mattia)
0 (V4, Nunnari)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
2 (V1, Chiodini)
3 (V2, Aiuppa)
2 (V4, Cocina)
2 (V4, Azzaro)
1 (V2, Doumaz)
1 (V3, Lombardo)
3 (V4, Cocina)
3 (V3, Del Negro)
0 (V3, Gresta)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V3, Del Negro)
0 (V4, Acocella)
0 (V4, Mazzarini)
0 (V3, Crisci)
0 (V3, Favalli)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
0 (V4, Federico)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V2, Martini)
2 (V1, Civetta)
Appendix 1
Palano M.
Ricerc.
INGV-CT
Paonita A.
Ricerc.
INGV-PA
Pareschi M.T.
Dir. Ricerca
INGV-PI
Passarelli L.
PhD Stud.
INGV-BO
Patanè D.
Primo Ric.
INGV-CT
Pecora E.
Pellegrino D.
Peluso R.
Peruzza L.
Petrosino S.
Tecnol.
Tecnico
Tecnol.
Ricerc.
Tecnol.
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-OV
INOGS-TS
INGV-OV
Pino N.A.
Pischiutta M.
Pisciotta F.
Polacci M.
Primo Ric.
PhD Stud.
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
INGV-OV
INGV-Rm1
INGV-PA
INGV-CT
Pompilio M.
Primo Ric.
INGV-PI
Privitera E.
Primo Ric.
INGV-CT
Proietti C.
Ricerc.
INGV-CT
Pruiti L.
Puglisi G.
Pulvirenti M.
Rapisarda S.
Tecnol.
Primo Ric.
Tecnico
Tecnico
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
Reitano D.
Tecnol.
INGV-CT
Ricci T.
Riccobono G.
Rinaldi A.P.
Rizzo A.
Ricerc.
Tecnico
PhD Stud.
Tecnol.
INGV-Rm1
INGV-PA
INGV-BO
INGV-PA
Rouwet D.
Rossi M.
Rovelli A.
Ricerc.
Tecnico
Dir. Ricerca
INGV-PA
INGV-CT
INGV-Rm1
Russo M.
Saccorotti G.
Tecnico
Primo Ric.
INGV-OV
INGV-PI
Salerno G.
Ricerc.
INGV-CT
Salvaterra C.
Sandri L.
Tecnico
Ricerc.
INGV-CNT
INGV-BO
Scandura D.
PhD Stud.
INGV-CT
0.5 (V2, Calvari)
0 (V1, Del Pezzo)
0 (V2, Mattia)
0 (V3, Gresta)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V2, Rizzo)
1 (V3, Gresta)
1 (V3, Favalli)
2 (V4, Mazzarini)
2 (V1, Marzocchi)
2 (V3, Gresta)
0 (V1, Del Pezzo)
0 (V2, Calvari)
1 (V2, Mattia)
1 (V4, Cocina)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V2, Calvari)
1 (V2, Mattia)
1 (V2, Martini)
1 (V4, Azzaro)
2 (V1, Saccorotti)
3 (V1, Del Pezzo)
3 (V2, Aiuppa)
1 (V4, Giunchi)
0 (V4, Federico)
0 (V2, Calvari)
0 (V2, Rosi)
3 (V2, Bertagnini)
1 (V2, Rotolo)
3 (V4, Mazzarini)
3 (V2, Calvari)
3 (V4, Azzaro)
0 (V3, Del Negro)
0 (V3, Marsella)
2 (V2, Carapezza)
3 (V4, C)
1 (V2, Mattia)
2 (V1, Del Pezzo)
1 (V2, Calvari)
3 (V3, Del Negro)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
3 (V2, Carapezza)
1 (V2, Rizzo)
1 (V1, Saccorotti)
3 (V2)
1 (V4, Federico)
4 (V1, Chiodini)
1 (V2, Mattia)
1 (V1, Del Pezzo)
2 (V4, Giunchi)
4 (V1, Chiodini)
3 (V1)
0 (V2, Calvari)
2 (V4, Mazzarini)
0 (V2, Aiuppa)
1 (V2, Calvari)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V2, Carapezza)
4 (V1, Marzocchi)
4 (V3, Gresta)
0 (V3, Del Negro)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
0.5 (V2, Calvari)
0 (V1, Del Pezzo)
0 (V2, Mattia)
0 (V3, Gresta)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V2, Rizzo)
1 (V3, Gresta)
1 (V3, Favalli)
2 (V4, Mazzarini)
2 (V1, Marzocchi)
2 (V3, Gresta)
0 (V1, Del Pezzo)
0 (V2, Calvari)
1 (V2, Mattia)
1 (V4, Cocina)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V2, Calvari)
1 (V2, Mattia)
1 (V2, Martini)
2 (V4, Azzaro)
2 (V1, Saccorotti)
3 (V1, Del Pezzo)
3 (V2, Aiuppa)
1 (V4, Giunchi)
0 (V4, Federico)
0 (V2, Calvari)
0 (V2, Rosi)
3 (V2, Bertagnini)
1 (V2, Rotolo)
3 (V4, Mazzarini)
3 (V2, Calvari)
3 (V4, Azzaro)
0 (V3, Del Negro)
3 (V3, Marsella)
2 (V2, Carapezza)
3 (V4, C)
1 (V2, Mattia)
2 (V1, Del Pezzo)
1 (V2, Calvari)
3 (V3, Del Negro)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
3 (V2, Carapezza)
1 (V2, Rizzo)
1 (V1, Saccorotti)
3 (V2)
1 (V4, Federico)
4 (V1, Chiodini)
1 (V2, Mattia)
1 (V1, Del Pezzo)
2 (V4, Giunchi)
4 (V1, Chiodini)
3 (V1)
0 (V2, Calvari)
2 (V4, Mazzarini)
0 (V2, Aiuppa)
1 (V2, Calvari)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V2, Carapezza)
4 (V1, Marzocchi)
4 (V3, Gresta)
6 (V3, Del Negro)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
367
Scarfi L.
Scarlato P.
Ricerc.
Primo Ric.
INGV-CT
INGV-Rm1
Scarpato G.
Scuderi L.
Selva J.
Tecnol.
Tecnico
Ricerc.
INGV-OV
INGV-CT
INGV-BO
Sicali A.
Silvestri M.
Spampinato L.
Spampinato S.
Spinetti C.
Tecnico
Borsista
PhD Stud.
Primo Ric.
Ricerc.
INGV-CT
INGV-CNT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-CNT
Taddeucci J.
Ricerc.
INGV-Rm1
Tantillo M.
Tarquini S.
Tecnico
Tecnol.
INGV-PA
INGV-PI
Todesco M.
Tolomei C.
Torrisi O.
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
Tecnico
INGV-BO
INGV-CNT
INGV-CT
Transatti E.
Tuvè T.
Ursino A.
Vassalli M.
Ricerc.
Ass. Ric.
Ricerc.
Ass. Ric.
INGV-Rm1
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-PI
Ventura G.
Primo Ricerc.
INGV-Rm1
Vicari A.
Vilardo G.
Vinci S.
Vinciguerra S.
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
Tecnico
Ricerc.
INGV-CT
INGV-OV
INGV-CNT
INGV-Rm1
Vita F.
Zaccarelli L.
Ricerc.
Ass. Ric.
INGV-PA
INGV-OV
Zonno G.
Zuccarello L.
Primo Ric.
Tecnol.
INGV-MI
INGV-CT
2 (V4, Giunchi)
2 (V1, Freda)
0 (V2, Carapezza)
0 (V3, Lombardo)
1 (V4, Giunchi)
1 (V2, Martini)
1 (V2, Calvari)
1 (V1, Marzocchi)
1 (V3, Gresta)
3 (V3, Del Negro)
0 (V3, Lombardo)
1 (V2, Calvari)
3 (V4, Cocina)
1 (V2, Doumaz)
0 (V3, Lombardo)
1 (V1, Freda)
3 (V2, Carapezza)
0 (V3, Lombardo)
1 (V2, Rizzo)
6 (V3, Favalli)
0 (V4, Mazzarini)
2 (V1, Saccorotti)
1 (V2, Doumaz)
2 (V3, Del Negro)
2 (V4, Puglisi)
0 (V1, Bonafede)
9 (V4, Azzaro)
2 (V4, Cocina)
0 (V1, Saccorotti)
0 (V4, Mazzarini)
1 (V1, Chiodini)
1 (V1, Freda)
2 (V2, Carapezza)
2 (V3, Del Negro)
2 (V1, Chiodini)
1 (V2, Doumaz)
2 (V1, Freda)
2 (V4, Giunchi)
5 (V1, Chiodini)
3 (V1, Del Pezzo)
1 (V4, Giunchi)
2 (V4, Azzaro)
0 (V2, Calvari)
2 (V4, Giunchi)
2 (V1, Freda)
0 (V2, Carapezza)
0 (V3, Lombardo)
1 (V4, Giunchi)
1 (V2, Martini)
1 (V2, Calvari)
4 (V1, Marzocchi)
4 (V3, Gresta)
3 (V3, Del Negro)
0 (V3, Lombardo)
1 (V2, Calvari)
3 (V4, Cocina)
1 (V2, Doumaz)
0 (V3, Lombardo)
1 (V1, Freda)
3 (V2, Carapezza)
0 (V3, Lombardo)
1 (V2, Rizzo)
6 (V3, Favalli)
0 (V4, Mazzarini)
2 (V1, Saccorotti)
1 (V2, Doumaz)
2 (V3, Del Negro)
2 (V4, Puglisi)
0 (V1, Bonafede)
9 (V4, Azzaro)
2 (V4, Cocina)
0 (V1, Saccorotti)
0 (V4, Mazzarini)
1 (V1, Chiodini)
1 (V1, Freda)
2 (V2, Carapezza)
2 (V3, Del Negro)
2 (V1, Chiodini)
1 (V2, Doumaz)
3 (V1, Freda)
3 (V4, Giunchi)
5 (V1, Chiodini)
3 (V1, Del Pezzo)
1 (V4, Giunchi)
2 (V4, Azzaro)
0 (V2, Calvari)
Non-INGV
Ricercatore
anno
Posizione
Ente
Mesi/uomo 1° anno
Mesi/uomo 2°
Abaud C.
Acocella V.
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
IPG-Paris FR
UniRm3
Aiuppa A.
Albarello D.
Aliano C.
Allard P.
Amelung F.
Amoroso O.
Amoroso A.
Prof. Ass.
Prof. Ass.
PhD Stud.
Dir. Ricerca
Prof.
Borsista
Ricerc.
UniPa
UniSi
UniBas
CNRS FR
CSIC-Miami USA
UniNA
UniSa
2 (V2, Rizzo)
3 (V4, C)
1 (V3, Del Negro)
5 (V2, C)
0.5 (V4, Azzaro)
2 (V3, Tramutoli)
2 (V2, Aiuppa)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
6 (V1, Festa)
4 (V1, Scarpa)
2 (V2, Rizzo)
3 (V4, C)
1 (V3, Del Negro)
5 (V2, C)
0.5 (V4, Azzaro)
2 (V3, Tramutoli)
2 (V2, Aiuppa)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
6 (V1, Festa)
4 (V1, Scarpa)
368
Appendix 1
Apuani T.
Argnani A.
Avanzinelli R.
Avorio M.V.
Bagnato E.
Ricerc.
Primo Ric.
Post-doc
Borsista
Ricerc.
Baker D.
Balasco M.
Baldassarre G.
Baldini A.
Barbano M.S.
Barberi F.
Barde-Cabusson S.
Barsanti M.
Full Prof.
Ricerc.
PhD Stud.
PhD
Prof. Ass.
Prof. Ord.
Post-doc
Ricerc.
Battaglia M.
Baud P.
Bean C.
Prof. Ass.
Lecturer
Prof. Ass.
Belardinelli M.E.
Belhadj O.
Beretta G.P.
Bernardo E.
Bilham R.
Boari E.
Bonafede M.
Prof.
Tecnico
Full Prof.
Collab.
Full Prof.
Post-doc
Prof. Ord.
Bonanno A.
Bonazzi C.
Boscarino S.
Bosman A.
Braschi E.
Bucolo M.
Burlini L.
Ricerc.
Co.Co.Co.
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
PhD Stud.
Ricerc.
Senior Res.
Buscarono A.
Buttner R.
Cannata A.
Caponnetto R.
Cardellini C.
Caricchi L.
Borsista
Ricerc.
PhD Stud.
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
Post-PhD
Cariolo S.
CoCoPro
Casagli N.
Casalbore
Cassioli A.
Prof. Ord.
PhD Stud.
PhD Stud.
Cavallaro D.
Cellula D.
Chiocci F.L.
Cigolini C.
Cioni R.
Civetta L.
PhD Stud.
Ricerc.
Prof. Ord.
Ricerc.
Prof. Ass.
Prof. Ord.
Claque D.
Conticelli S.
Coppola D.
Corazzato C.
Corrado R.
Crescentini L.
Primo Ric.
Prof. Ord.
Ass. Ric.
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
Prof. Ass.
UniMi
ISMAR-CNR
Univ. Bristol UK
UniCal
UniPa
4 (V4)
3 (V4)
3 (V2, Ripepe)
6 (V3, Crisci)
5 (V1, Chiodini)
3 (V2, Aiuppa)
Univ. Montreal CA
1 (V2, Calvari)
IMAA-CNR-Pz
2 (V4, Siniscalchi)
UniBas
2 (V3, Tramutoli)
UniPe
2 (V1, Chiodini)
UniCt
1 (V4, Azzaro)
UniRm3
2 (V2, Carapezza)
UniFi
3 (V2, Carapezza)
UniPi
1 (V1, Saccorotti)
2 (V4, Mazzarini)
UniRm1
3 (V4, Acocella)
IPG Strasbourg FR
1 (V4, Giunchi)
Univ. Coll. Dublin IR
1 (V1, Saccorotti)
1 (V4, Mazzarini)
UniBo
3 (V1, Bonafede)
CNRS FR
2 (V2, Bertagnini)
UniMI
1 (V4, Apuani)
UniRM1
1 (V3, Marsella)
Univ. Colorado USA
2 (V1, Scarpa)
UniFi
1 (V2, Ripepe)
UniBo
3 (V1)
1 (V2, Mattia)
1 (V4, Giunchi)
UniCt
2 (V3, Russo)
ISMAR-CNR
4 (V4, Argnani)
UniCt
3 (V3, Russo)
CNR-IGAG
2 (V4, Chiocci)
UniFi
2 (V2, Ripepe)
UniCt
3 (V3, Fortuna)
ETH Zurich CH
1 (V1, Freda)
1 (V4, Giunchi)
UniCt
3 (V3, Fortuna)
Univ. Wurzburg DE
4 (V2, Dellino)
UniCt
5 (V3, Gresta)
UniCt
3 (V3, Fortuna)
Uni-Pe
2 (V1, Chiodini)
ETH Zurich CH
1 (V1, Freda)
1 (V4, Giunchi)
PON COMETA
0 (V3, Del Negro)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
UniFi
3 (V2, Ripepe)
UniBo
5 (V4, Chiocci)
UniFi
1 (V1, Saccorotti)
1 (V4, Mazzarini)
UniCt
5 (V4, Chiocci)
UniPa
6 (V1, Chiodini)
UniRm1
1 (V4)
UniTo
3 (V2, Ripepe)
UniCa
1 (V2, Bertagnini)
UniNa
4 (V1, C )
1 (V4, Puglisi)
MBARI, Monterey USA 0 (V4, Chiocci)
UniFi
1 (V2, Ripepe)
UniTo
3 (V2, Ripepe)
UniMiB
5 (V4, Apuani)
UniBas
2 (V3, Tramutoli)
UniSa
4 (V1, Scarpa)
4 (V4)
3 (V4)
3 (V2, Ripepe)
6 (V3, Crisci)
5 (V1, Chiodini)
3 (V2, Aiuppa)
1 (V2, Calvari)
2 (V4, Siniscalchi)
2 (V3, Tramutoli)
2 (V1, Chiodini)
1 (V4, Azzaro)
2 (V2, Carapezza)
3 (V2, Carapezza)
1 (V1, Saccorotti)
2 (V4, Mazzarini)
3 (V4, Acocella)
1 (V4, Giunchi)
1 (V1, Saccorotti)
1 (V4, Mazzarini)
3 (V1, Bonafede)
2 (V2, Bertagnini)
1 (V4, Apuani)
1 (V3, Marsella)
2 (V1, Scarpa)
1 (V2, Ripepe)
3 (V1)
1 (V2, Mattia)
1 (V4, Giunchi)
2 (V3, Russo)
4 (V4, Argnani)
3 (V3, Russo)
2 (V4, Chiocci)
2 (V2, Ripepe)
3 (V3, Fortuna)
1 (V1, Freda)
1 (V4, Giunchi)
3 (V3, Fortuna)
4 (V2, Dellino)
5 (V3, Gresta)
3 (V3, Fortuna)
2 (V1, Chiodini)
1 (V1, Freda)
1 (V4, Giunchi)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
3 (V2, Ripepe)
5 (V4, Chiocci)
1 (V1, Saccorotti)
1 (V4, Mazzarini)
5 (V4, Chiocci)
6 (V1, Chiodini)
2 (V4)
3 (V2, Ripepe)
1 (V2, Bertagnini)
4 (V1, C)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
0 (V4, Chiocci)
1 (V2, Ripepe)
3 (V2, Ripepe)
5 (V4, Apuani)
2 (V3, Tramutoli)
4 (V1, Scarpa)
369
Crisci G.M.
Cristiano L.
Cristofolini R.
D’Agostino G.
D’Ambrosio D.
D’Antonio M.
De Campos C.
De Giosa M.
Delledonne D.
Dellino P.
Del Moro S.
Delventisette C.
Diaferia I.
Di Carlo I.
Di Giuseppe E.
Di Gregorio S.
Di Martino R.
Di Muro A.
Di Napoli R.
Di Stefano G.
Doronzo D.
Drago A.
Prof. Ord.
PhD Stud.
Prof. Ord.
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
Prof.
Prof.
Prof. Ass.
Ass. Ric.
Prof. Ord.
PhD Stud.
Ass. Ric.
Ass. Ric.
Post-doc
PhD Stud.
Prof. Ord.
Ricerc.
Maitre de Conf.
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
PhD Stud.
Borsista
Dragoni M.
Prof. Ord.
Ertel-Ingrish W.
Faruolo M.
Fascetti A.
Fehtullah K.
Ferito C.
Ferrari C.
Ferrucci F.
Festa G.
Filippucci M.
Filizzola C.
Finizola A.
Fortuna L.
Francalanci L.
Frasca M.
Frondini F.
Gaeta M.
Gaillard F.
Galle B.
Genco R.
Germak A.
Got J.L.
Grani G.
Gresta S.
Ricerc.
Borsista
Ricerc.
PhD Stud.
Ricerc.
Post-PhD
Prof. Ass.
Ricerc.
Borsista
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
Prof. Ord.
Prof. Ass.
Borsista
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
Ass. Ric.
Ricerc.
Lecturer
Prof. Ord.
Prof. Ord.
Grimaldi S.L.C.
Gudmundsson A.
Guerri L.
Gwinner K.
Harris. A.J.L.
Heap M.
Imposa S.
Ivanovski S.
James M.
Negro)
Kern C.
Lacanna G.
Lacava T.
370
UniCal
UniSa
UniCt
INRIM
UniCal
UniNa
Uni-Munich, DE
UniBa
UniFi
UniBa
UniUrb
UniTo
UniBa
UniPa
UniRm3
UniCal
UniPa
Univ. Paris VI FR
UniPa
UniCt
UniBa
PON COMETA
Borsista
Prof. Ord.
PhD Stud.
Ricerc.
Prof. Ass.
PhD Stud.
Ricerc.
PhD Stud.
Res. Yellow
1 (V3)
2 (V1, Scarpa)
3 (V3, Gresta)
1 (V1, Chiodini)
2 (V3, Crisci)
3 (V1, Civetta)
2 (V1, Civetta)
1 (V4, Siniscalchi)
3 (V2, Ripepe)
6 (V2)
3 (V2, Rosi)
3 (V2, Ripepe)
2 (V4, Siniscalchi)
3 (V2, Rotolo)
1 (V4, Acocella)
1 (V3, Crisci)
6 (V1, Chiodini)
2 (V2, Bertagnini)
5 (V1, Chiodini)
3 (V3, Gresta)
4 (V2, Dellino)
0 (V3, Del Negro)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
UniBo
3 (V3, Tallarico)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
Uni-Munich DE
2 (V1, Civetta)
IMAA-CNR
2 (V3, Tramutoli)
UniRm1
3 (V4, Chiocci)
Univ. Istanbul TU
3 (V3, Del Negro)
UniCt
3 (V3, Gresta)
UniBo
6 (V1, Bonafede)
UniCal
1 (V3, Del Negro)
UniNA
3 (V1)
UniBa
5 (V3, Tallarico)
IMAA-CNR
2 (V3, Tramutoli)
IPGP FR
2 (V2, Carapezza)
UniCt
3 (V3)
UniFi
3 (V2, Ripepe)
UniCt
3 (V3, Fortuna)
Uni-Pe
1 (V1, Chiodini)
Uni-Rm1
1 (V1, Freda)
ISTO Orlèans FR
1 (V2, Rizzo)
Uni-Goteborg SW
2 (V1, Chiodini)
UniFi
3 (V2, Ripepe)
INRIM
1 (V1, Chiodini)
Univ. Savoie FR
1 (V4, Cocina)
UniMi
1 (V4, Apuani)
UniCt
6 (V3, C)
2 (V4, Nunnari)
IMAA-CNR
2 (V3, Tramutoli)
R. Halloway London UK 1 (V4, Acocella)
UniFi
3 (V2, Ripepe)
DLR Berlin DE
0 (V4, Puglisi)
Univ. Hawaii USA
0 (V3, Favalli)
UCL London UK
1 (V4, Giunchi)
UniCt
3 (V3, Gresta)
UniCt
2 (V3, Russo)
Lancaster Univ. UK
0.5 (V3, Del Negro)
1 (V3)
2 (V1, Scarpa)
3 (V3, Gresta)
1 (V1, Chiodini)
2 (V3, Crisci)
3 (V1, Civetta)
2 (V1, Civetta)
1 (V4, Siniscalchi)
3 (V2, Ripepe)
6 (V2)
3 (V2, Rosi)
3 (V2, Ripepe)
2 (V4, Siniscalchi)
3 (V2, Rotolo)
1 (V4, Acocella)
1 (V3, Crisci)
6 (V1, Chiodini)
2 (V2, Bertagnini)
5 (V1, Chiodini)
3 (V3, Gresta)
4 (V2, Dellino)
6 (V3, Del Negro)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
3 (V3, Tallarico)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
2 (V1, Civetta)
2 (V3, Tramutoli)
3 (V4, Chiocci)
3 (V3, Del Negro)
3 (V3, Gresta)
12 (V1, Bonafede)
1 (V3, Del Negro)
3 (V1)
5 (V3, Tallarico)
2 (V3, Tramutoli)
2 (V2, Carapezza)
3 (V3)
3 (V2, Ripepe)
3 (V3, Fortuna)
1 (V1, Chiodini)
1 (V1, Freda)
1 (V2, Rizzo)
2 (V1, Chiodini)
3 (V2, Ripepe)
1 (V1, Chiodini)
1 (V4, Cocina)
1 (V4, Apuani)
6 (V3, C)
2 (V4, Nunnari)
2 (V3, Tramutoli)
1 (V4, Acocella)
3 (V2, Ripepe)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
0 (V3, Favalli)
1 (V4, Giunchi)
3 (V3, Gresta)
2 (V3, Russo)
0.5 (V3, Del
Ricerc.
Ass. Ric.
Ricerc.
IUP Heidelberg DE
UniFi
IMAA-CNR
2 (V1, Chiodini)
3 (V2, Ripepe)
2 (V3, Tramutoli)
2 (V1, Chiodini)
3 (V2, Ripepe)
2 (V3, Tramutoli)
Appendix 1
Laiolo M.
Lanari R.
La Spina A.
Ass. Ric.
Primo Ric.
PhD Stud.
La Volpe L.
Lesne P.
Linde A.
Prof. Ord.
Post-PhD
Senior Res.
Lisi M.
Lizzio S.
Loddo M.
Lokner I.
Lupiano V.
Maercklin N.
Maccaferri F.
Magrì C.
Marchese F.
Marchetti E.
Marsella M.
Martinez Arevalo C.
Masetti M.
Mazzeo G.
McGonigle A.
Mele D.
Menna M.
Meredith P.
PhD Stud.
CoCoPro
Prof. Ord.
PhD Stud.
Borsista
PostDoc
PhD Stud.
Tecnico
Borsista
Ricerc.
Prof. Ass.
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
PhD Stud.
Prof. Ass.
Ric. Ass.
Psot-doc
Prof.
Merri A.
Métrich N.
PhD Stud.
Dir. Ricerca
Monteiller V.
Moretti P.
Morra G.
Napoleoni Q.
Niceforo G.
Nobile A.
Norini G.
Nunnari G.
O’Brian
PhD Stud.
PhD Stud.
Postdoc
Prof. Ass.
Collab.
PhD Stud.
Post-PhD
Prof. Ord.
Post-PhD
Origlia C.
Paciello R.
Parello F.
Ricerc.
Borsista
Prof. Ord.
Pergola N.
Perugini D.
Peruzza L.
Pichavant M.
Pinkerton H.
Pioli L.
Piombo A.
Ricerc.
Ricerc..
Ricerc.
Dir. Ricerca
Prof. Ord.
Post-doc
Ricerc.
Piscitelli S.
Piscopo D.
Pistagna F.
Ricerc.
Ass. Ric.
Borsista
Poe B.
Poli G.
Ranaldi M.
Renzulli A.
Revil A.
Prof. Ass.
Prof.
PhD Stud.
Prof. Ass.
Ricerc.
UniTo
CNR-IREA Na
UniPa
3 (V2, Ripepe)
0 (V4, Acocella)
1 (V2, Aiuppa)
0 (V2, Calvari)
UniBa
6 (V2, Dellino)
ISTO-Orlèans FR
0 (V2, Rizzo)
Carnegie Inst. Wa USA 1 (V1, Scarpa)
0.5 (V2, Martini)
UniBas
2 (V3, Tramutoli)
PON COMETA
0 (V3, Del Negro)
UniBa
2 (V4, Siniscalchi)
1 (V1, Saccorotti)
UniCal
6 (V3, Crisci)
UniNA
3 (V1, Festa)
UniBo
3 (V1, Bonafede)
UniBa
2 (V4, Siniscalchi)
UniBas
3 (V3, Tramutoli)
UniFi
3 (V2, Ripepe)
UniRm1
2 (V3)
CSIC Madrid ES
1 (V4, Cocina)
UniMi
1 (V4, Apuani)
UniBas
2 (V3, Tramutoli)
Univ. Sheffield UK
1 (V2, Aiuppa)
UniBa
6 (V2, Dellino)
UniUrb
3 (V2, Rosi)
UCL London UK
1 (V1, Freda)
1 (V4, Giunchi)
UniMi
3 (V4, Apuani)
CNRS FR
2 (V2, Bertagnini)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
Univ. Savoie FR
3 (V4, Cocina)
UniBa
3 (V4, Siniscalchi)
UniRm3
2 (V4, Acocella)
UniRM1
1 (V3, Marsella)
UniCal
3 (V3, Crisci)
UniNa
6 (V4, Cocina)
Univ. Mexico ME
11 (V4, Acocella)
UniCt
3 (V4)
1 (V1, Saccorotti)
1 (V4, Mazzarini)
INRIM
1 (V1, Chiodini)
IMAA-CNR
2 (V3, Tramutoli)
UniPa
5 (V1, Chiodini)
1 (V2, Aiuppa)
2 (V2, Carapezza)
IMAA-CNR
2 (V3, Tramutoli)
UniPe
2 (V1, Civetta)
INOGS-TS
1 (V4, Azzaro)
CNRS-ISTO FR
3 (V2, Rotolo)
Lancaster Univ. UK
1 (V3, Del Negro)
Univ. Oregon USA
3 (V2, Rosi)
UniBo
3 (V3, Tallarico)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
IMAA-CNR Potenza
1 (V2, Carapezza)
UniTo
3 (V2, Ripepe)
PON COMETA
0 (V3, Del Negro)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
UniChi
1 (V1, Freda)
UniPe
2 (V1, Civetta)
UniRm3
3 (V2, Carapezza)
UniUrb
3 (V2, Rosi)
Colorado Sch. Mines US 1 (V2, Carapezza)
3 (V2, Ripepe)
0 (V4, Acocella)
1 (V2, Aiuppa)
0 (V2, Calvari)
6 (V2, Dellino)
0 (V2, Rizzo)
1 (V1, Scarpa)
0.5 (V2, Martini)
2 (V3, Tramutoli)
2 (V4, Siniscalchi)
1 (V1, Saccorotti)
6 (V3, Crisci)
3 (V1, Festa)
3 (V1, Bonafede)
2 (V4, Siniscalchi)
3 (V3, Tramutoli)
3 (V2, Ripepe)
2 (V3)
1 (V4, Cocina)
1 (V4, Apuani)
2 (V3, Tramutoli)
1 (V2, Aiuppa)
6 (V2, Dellino)
3 (V2, Rosi)
1 (V1, Freda)
1 (V4, Giunchi)
3 (V4, Apuani)
2 (V2, Bertagnini)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
3 (V4, Cocina)
3 (V4, Siniscalchi)
2 (V4, Acocella)
1 (V3, Marsella)
3 (V3, Crisci)
6 (V4, Cocina)
11 (V4, Acocella)
3 (V4)
1 (V1, Saccorotti)
1 (V4, Mazzarini)
1 (V1, Chiodini)
2 (V3, Tramutoli)
5 (V1, Chiodini)
1 (V2, Aiuppa)
2 (V2, Carapezza)
2 (V3, Tramutoli)
2 (V1, Civetta)
2 (V4, Azzaro)
3 (V2, Rotolo)
1 (V3, Del Negro)
3 (V2, Rosi)
3 (V3, Tallarico)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V2, Carapezza)
3 (V2, Ripepe)
6 (V3, Del Negro)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V1, Freda)
2 (V1, Civetta)
3 (V2, Carapezza)
3 (V2, Rosi)
1 (V2, Carapezza)
371
Ridolfi F.
Ripepe M.
Rivalta E.
Post-doc
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
UniUrb
UniFi
Univ. Leeds UK
Rizzo E.
Romano G.
Romano P.
Romengo N.
Rongo R.
Rosi M.
Rotolo S.
Rotondi R.
Rovere M.
Russo G.
Ricerc.
PhD Stud.
Ass. Ric.
PhD Stud.
Ricerc.
Prof. Ord.
Prof. Ass.
Primo Ric.
Ricerc.
Prof.
IMAA-CNR Potenza
IMAA-CNR Potenza
UniSa
UniPa
UniCal
UniPi
UniPa
CNR-IMAT MI
ISMAR-CNR
UniCt
Russo G.
CoCoPro
PON COMETA
Rust D.
Rutherford M.J.
Sacks S.I.
Primo Ric.
Full Prof.
Senior Res.
Brunel Univ. UK
Uni-Brown, RI USA
Carnegie Inst. Wa USA
Santi P.
Santini S.
Scaillet B.
Scandone R.
Scarpa R.
Schiamone D.
Schubnel A.
Sebastiano L.
Siedow N.
Sifoni S.
Siniscalchi A.
Ricerc.
Prof. Ass.
Dir. Ricerca
Prof. Ord.
Prof. Ord.
Prof. Ord.
Ricerc.
CoCoPro
Ricerc.
Collab.
Prof. Ass.
UniUrb
UniUrb
CNRS-ISTO FR
Uni-Rm3
UniSa
UniBa
ENS Paris FR
PON COMETA
Fraunhofer ITWM DE
UniRm1
UniBa
Sonnessa A.
Spata A.
Spataro W.
Stabile T.
Sulpizio R.
Suski B.
Tallarico A.
Tamburo E.
Taran Y.
Tibaldi A.
Tiepolo M.
PhD Stud.
PhD Stud.
Ricerc.
Post-doc
Ricerc.
Post-doc
Prof. Ass.
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
Prof. Ass.
Ricerc.
UniRm1
UniCt
UniCal
UniNA
UniBa
Univ. Losanna CH
UniBa
UniPa.
Unam_Mexico
UniMiB
IGG-CNR Pavia
Tiwari S.
Tommasini S.
Tramutoli V.
Tribaudino M.
Ulivieri G.
Valenza M.
Valerio A.
Vannucci R.
Vassallo M.
Viccaro M.
Walter T.R.
Williams C.
Woo G.
Zimanowski B.
Zollo A.
Ricerc.
Prof. Ass.
Ricerc.
Prof. Ord.
Ricerc.
Prof. Ord.
PhD Stud.
Prof. Ord.
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
Ricerc.
Prof.
Ricerc.
Prof. Ass.
Prof. Ord.
Fraunhofer ITWM DE
UniFi
UniBas
UniUrb
UniFi
UniPa
UniBo
UniPav
UniNa
UniCt
GFZ Potsdam DE
RPI USA
RMS London UK
Univ. Wurzburg DE
UniNa
372
1 (V2, Rosi)
3 (V2)
3 (V2, Mattia)
1 (V4, Acocella)
1 (V2, Carapezza)
2 (V4, Siniscalchi)
3 (V1, Scarpa)
1 (V2, Rotolo)
2 (V3, Crisci)
3 (V2)
3 (V2)
2 (V4, Azzaro)
2 (V4, Argnani)
3 (V3)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
0 (V3, Del Negro)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V3, Del Negro)
2 (V1, Civetta)
1 (V1, Scarpa)
0.5 (V2, Martini)
1 (V2, Rosi)
3 (V3, Tallarico)
3 (V2, Rotolo)
2 (V1, Marzocchi)
3 (V1)
2 (V4, Siniscalchi)
1 (V1, Freda)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
2 (V3, Russo)
6 (V3, Marsella)
3 (V4)
1 (V1, Del Pezzo)
1 (V3, Marsella)
4 (V4, Nunnari)
2 (V3, Crisci)
4 (V1, Festa)
6 (V2, Dellino)
1 (V2, Carapezza)
3 (V3)
5 (V1, Chiodini)
2 (V1, Chiodini)
3 (V4, Apuani)
1 (V2, Bertagnini)
1 (V4, Mazzarini)
3 (V3, Russo)
2 (V2, Ripepe)
3 (V3)
1 (V2, Rosi)
3 (V2, Ripepe)
4 (V1, Chiodini)
5 (V3, Tallarico)
1 (V2, Bertagnini)
3 (V1, Festa)
3 (V3, Gresta)
1 (V4, Nunnari)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V1, Marzocchi)
4 (V2, Dellino)
V5
3 (V1, Festa)
1 (V2, Rosi)
3 (V2)
3 (V2, Mattia)
1 (V4, Acocella)
1 (V2, Carapezza)
2 (V4, Siniscalchi)
3 (V1, Scarpa)
1 (V2, Rotolo)
2 (V3, Crisci)
3 (V2)
3 (V2)
2 (V4, Azzaro)
2 (V4, Argnani)
3 (V3)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V3, Del Negro)
2 (V1, Civetta)
1 (V1, Scarpa)
0.5 (V2, Martini)
1 (V2, Rosi)
3 (V3, Tallarico)
3 (V2, Rotolo)
2 (V1, Marzocchi)
3 (V1)
2 (V4, Siniscalchi)
1 (V1, Freda)
0 (V4, Puglisi)
2 (V3, Russo)
6 (V3, Marsella)
3 (V4)
1 (V1, Del Pezzo)
1 (V3, Marsella)
4 (V4, Nunnari)
2 (V3, Crisci)
4 (V1, Festa)
6 (V2, Dellino)
1 (V2, Carapezza)
3 (V3)
5 (V1, Chiodini)
2 (V1, Chiodini)
2 (V4, Apuani)
1 (V2, Bertagnini)
1 (V4, Mazzarini)
3 (V3, Russo)
2 (V2, Ripepe)
3 (V3)
1 (V2, Rosi)
3 (V2, Ripepe)
4 (V1, Chiodini)
5 (V3, Tallarico)
1 (V2, Bertagnini)
3 (V1, Festa)
3 (V3, Gresta)
1 (V4, Nunnari)
1 (V4, Puglisi)
1 (V1, Marzocchi)
4 (V2, Dellino)
V5
3 (V1, Festa)