project v3 – lava - L`Istituto

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Project V3 – Lava
PROJECT V3 – LAVA
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Project V3 – Lava
Project V3 - LAVA
Realization of the lava flow hazard map at Mount Etna
and set up of a method for its dynamic update
Coordinators:
Ciro Del Negro, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Catania, Piazza
Roma 2, 95123 Catania, Italy, [email protected]
Stefano Gresta, Dipartimento di Scienze Geologiche, Università di Catania, Corso Italia
57, 95129 Catania, Italy, [email protected]
Objectives
Mt. Etna is one of the most active and investigated volcanoes in the world. Its eruptions
are often characterized by lava flows which spread along its flanks. Such eruptions can
potentially reach the villages located to medium-low elevations. Even the area where city of
Catania is settled was reached in the past by the flows outpoured from eruptive fractures opened
at lower elevations. In the last century, the village of Mascali was destroyed by lava flows in
1928, while the villages of Fornazzo in 1979 and Randazzo in 1981 were threatened by lava
flows. More recently, several tourist facilities have been repeatedly destroyed, with serious
damage to the local economy. Some results of the previous INGV-DPC (2004-2006) Project
V3_6 Etna, concerning: (i) the updated catalogue of eruptions, (ii) the better knowledge of the
internal structure of the volcano, (iii) the capability to model in the near-real-time the data from
the monitoring networks with the goal of identifying the most probable areas of opening of an
eruptive fissure, and (iv) the considerable progress in the simulation of lava flows; allow us to
define the objective of the present project. It consists in the production of hazard maps from
invasion of lava flow for medium and short term. The short term maps will be dynamic
instruments, which could be semi-automatically modified by considering the signals collected by
the monitoring networks, the evolution of the eruption, and the weighted opinion of experts.
The research in the project will include the followings steps:
a. Definition and realization of databases and digital maps in GIS architecture,
integrating the geological geophysical, and geochemical information.
b. Definition of the principles and paradigms for the realization of the dynamic hazard
map.
c. Definition of the vent opening probability at medium and short term, on the basis of
data from the terrestrial and satellite observation systems.
d. Application of mathematical models for the prediction of lava flow paths.
e. Realization of the hazard map.
f. Development of methodologies for the dynamic update of the hazard map on the
basis of the data from the observation systems, and comparison with test cases from
recent eruptions.
g. Study of the methodologies for the operational functioning of the new technologies
at point f above, and of the interface modalities with the Functional Center of DPC.
LAVA will provide practical forecasts of the future course of lava flows to enable
quantitative hazard assessments and operational guidelines for, potentially, mitigatory
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actions to be undertaken. We plan to achieve these forecasts by use of numerical computer
simulation of the flow paths over the surface of the volcano, these simulations will be
constrained by knowledge from former eruptions and from near real-time field and remote
observations of the state of lava flow advance.
Espected products
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Data employed in the project, organized in a database.
Guidelines for the realization of the lava flow hazard map and its dynamic
update.
Eruptive fracture/vent opening probability map at medium and short term,
including the dynamic update methodologies at point f above.
Lava flow hazard map at Mount Etna, including the dynamic update
methodologies at point f above.
Applications of the dynamic hazard maps at the two points above to test cases
from recent eruptions at Mount Etna.
Feasibility study for the realization of an interface at the Functional Center of
DPC, to be agreed upon with the same DPC, for the products at the last three
point above.
State of the Art of the ongoing researches related to the present objectives
It is not possible to prevent a volcano from erupting, but it is now becoming possible to
forecast generally where a volcano is likely to direct a lava flow and when such a flow is
underway to forecast its course and rate of advance. Timely predictions of the areas likely
to be invaded by lava flows are of major interest to hazard managers during a volcanic
eruption. Although most volcanic lava flows do not result in loss of human life, they can
potentially cause enormous damage to property. Lava flows can bury homes and
agricultural land under several meters of hardened rock. Typical examples of lava flows
are from the Etna volcano, where its frequent effusive eruptions can pose hazard to several
villages. In order to estimate the amount of damage that can be caused by a lava flow, it is
useful to be able to predict the size and extent of such flows. Numerical simulation is a
good tool to examine such events. With such simulations, one can explore various eruption
scenarios and these can specifically be used to estimate the extent of the invasion area, the
time required for the flow to reach a particular point and resulting morphological changes.
However, it is not easy to develop a robust tool for forecasting lava flow pathways,
because the temperature, rheological properties and effusion rates are not linearly
dependent and they are variables on space-time domain.
The INGV-DPC (2004-2006) Project V3_6 Etna improved the hazard assessment at
Etna through the development of accurate and robust physical-mathematical models able to
forecast the spatial and temporal evolution of lava flows. In particular, the new
MAGFLOW model [RU Del Negro] based on cellular automatons for the simulation of
lava flows was applied to the recent eruptions of 2001, 2004 and 2006 Etna volcano. The
evolution function of this model is a steady state solution of the Navier-Stokes equation in
the case of a horizontal plan. The effect of rheology and cooling are included in the model.
Total flow volumes of 2004 Etna eruption were obtained by integrating the effusion rates
estimated using satellite thermal data over the entire duration of the eruption. MAGFLOW
represents the central part of an extensive methodology for the compilation of hazard maps
related to lava invasion at Mt Etna. Preliminary hazard map was realized by simulating a
number of lava flows from a set of initial data and with different parameters of the volcanic
system in a meaningful range of variation.
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Project V3 – Lava
The already existing SCIARA model [RU Crisci] was integrated with a Genetic
Algorithm (GA) in order to estimate the values of the parameters of the model. This
procedure was necessary because SCIARA works with not physical parameters which
must be determined before every simulation. The application of the GA to SCIARA model
was validated simulating the eruptions of the 2001 and 1991-1993 of Etna. Once that the
SCIARA model was well calibrated and validated, an application for the new kind
compilation of maps showing the hazard related to lava invasion limited to the North
Eastern flank of Mount Etna was achieved. The simulations of the lava flows were also
obtained with DOWNFLOW code, based on the steepest slope [RU Favalli]. Probability
maps of invasion by lava flows constructed for the Mt. Etna using DOWNFLOW were
based on: (i) the probability distribution of the future vents and (ii) the probability
distribution of the length of future lava flows. The (E3) emulator [RU Fortuna] based on
cellular nonlinear network (CNN) for the simulation of lava flows was also introduced.
Two different applications were performed: the former was based on autowaves model,
while in the latter the base equations of the emulator are replaced with the equation of the
motion of a fluid.
In framework of the previous INGV-DPC Etna Project, the treatment of the satellite
imagery in order to recognize thermal anomalies (hot-spot detection) and to estimate the
lava flow rate was also investigated [RUs Tramutoli and Lombardo]. In particular, it was
developed an automatic system for the preprocessing and the computation of lava effusion
rate using infrared satellite data [RU Del Negro]. The relationships between the thermal
and dynamical aspects of lava flows, with the particular objective of understanding the
formation, characteristics and evolution of lava tubes were also studied [RU Tallarico]: (i)
the flow in a cylindrical tube with elliptic section, (ii) the temperature field and heat flow
around elliptical tubes, (iii) the thermo elastic deformation associated to a lava tube, and
(iv) the mechanism of formation of the crust, observing that it generates from the center of
the channel, where the shear rate is low, to the lateral.
The updating of the DEM (Digital Elevation Model) of the Mt. Etna in areas affected
by the volcanic unrest was achieved through the elaboration of the aero-photogrammetric
relieves and photogrammetric elaboration of historical data for the production of DEM pre
and post eruption relative to the events 1991-93, 1999 Bocca Nuova, 1998-2001 Crateri
Sommitali, 2001 flow from 2100 m a.s.l., 2002-03-flows on the S and NE flanks, 2004-05
Valle del Bove [RU Marsella]. At last, it was drawn the complete procedure for the
reconstruction of the geometric and physical data (included associated errors), necessary
for the validation of the lava flow simulations, developed for the 2001 Etna eruption - flow
from 2100 m a.s.l. [RU Coltelli].
On the other side, results of the previous INGV-DPC Etna Project concern a better
knowledge of the shallow plumbing system and structure of the volcano, through the
location and properties of some shallow magma bodies. It is noteworthy also the
identification of “significant anomalies” for earthquake and geochemical parameters, as
well as the definition of the “critical levels” that define the transition between different
stages of activity of the volcano, that was successfully by considering the volcanic tremor
[RU Gresta]. This last result, actually allow us to track the migration of the tremor
source(s) into the shallow part of the volcano body.
Description of the activities
Etna will undoubtedly erupt again. When it does, the first critical question that must be
answered is: which areas are threatened with lava invasion? Once the threatened areas are
established, we can address the second critical question: what people, property, and
facilities are at risk? These questions can be answered by estimating the areas most likely
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to be affected by eruptions on various parts of the volcano. On the base of our experience
in both monitoring and modelling of the lava flow emplacement during past Etna
eruptions, we plan to develop a methodology for computing such estimates on Etna based
on the knowledge of eruptive vents and areas covered by past lava flow eruptions. We will
divide the volcano into potential lava inundation zones and prepare detailed maps of these
zones, which should be presented as layers of a GIS environment.
The application of physical-mathematical models for simulating the lava flow paths
will represent the central part of an extensive methodology for the hazard assessment at
Etna. Hazard assessment will be performed by simulating a number of lava flows from a
set of input data (from the record of past eruptions) in a meaningful range of variation and
by adopting a high-resolution updated Digital Elevation Model (DEM).
The effort to obtain a probabilistic lava flow hazard map of Etna will consist of
following steps:
1. a multivariate statistical analysis of the historical and pre-historical
eruptions will provide: the likelihood of a lava vent at every position on
Etna, the likelihood that vent will produce a specific type of lava flow;
2. random vent location by re-sampling of the vent density surface (Monte
Carlo method), assignment of the most probable flow type, and generation
of the required vent number;
3. parameterization of lava flow: creation of a library of parameter settings,
corresponding to reasonable fits for each of the eruption used, by a series of
trials using the numerical simulations to match the observed spatial
distribution of lava;
4. simulation of the new eruptions by adopting the parameter settings that best
simulate the nearest historical lava flows;
5. evaluation of the probability at any given point to be inundated by lava
flows as the ratio between the number of times that point was overridden by
lava and the total number of simulations.
The simulation approach, to assess lava flow hazard, results in more robust and locally
accurate analysis than a simple probabilistic approach and accounts for the influence of the
actual topography on the path of future lava flows. Generating multiple simulations will
allow us to evaluate the probability of lava inundating anywhere on the surface of the
volcano. This probability will be captured as a hazard map, showing the relative frequency
of lava flows that could potentially inundate specific areas. Such probability maps indicate
the likely areas that could be affected but not which area will be covered by a specific
eruption.
The quantitative description of hazard in terms of vent opening probability will be also
pursued. During recent years, new insights on the behaviour of Mt. Etna have been gained
regarding the understanding of past eruptive activity, the dynamics of the volcano, the
magma transfer processes, and the geophysical and geochemical monitoring. A number of
expertises are now available in many fields of investigation. An effort for an effective
integration of this knowledge, basically to consider information coming from monitoring
activity (i.e. earthquake location, flank inflation/deflation, anomalies in other parameters)
to be interpreted in terms of possible magma upraise/migration, activation of structures,
etc., evolving to the occurrence of the vent opening in a given area of the volcano. The
opinion of a team of experts has been already used in a Bayesian statistical procedure that
accounts for any kind of available information both on real unrest of a volcano, and on
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Project V3 – Lava
simulation of the Vesuvius unrest. The quality of both data and expertise by researchers
will induce to test a retrospective BET application at Mt. Etna for the production of short
term dynamic hazard map when critical levels of the volcano activity are reached.
The problem of building scenarios through the straightforward simulation of lava flows
during ongoing eruptions requires the development, validation and application of accurate
and robust physical-mathematical models able to calculate their spatial and temporal
evolution. Methods for modeling lava flows attempt to simulate how the complex
interaction between flow dynamics and physical properties of lava lead to the final flow
dimensions and morphology observed in the field. Existing and new models based on
different physical formulations and approaches will be developed and applied to real cases
in order to make model inter-comparisons and more robust forecasts of the phenomena.
Models will also use, as much as possible, data deriving from the field observations, for
model validation, and experimental data, for constitutive equations. We will focus on the
integration of robust satellite techniques and advanced numerical models to develop an
automatic monitoring system capable of timely identifying hot volcanic features in near
real time, providing reliable estimation of the effusion rates and accurate simulation of lava
flow space-time evolution in near real-time. To promptly detect volcanic hot spots, high
temporal resolution satellite data will be used, implementing an innovative multi-temporal
approach which has shown to be capable of strongly reducing false alarm occurrence. This
approach, being potentially suitable to identify also anomalous thermal signals that may
sometime precede impending eruptions, will offer a high contribute for early warning
purposes. Satellite thermal anomaly maps will be used to provide early and accurate
effusion rate estimations by means of standard and/or original algorithms. Effusion Rate
products, together with precise and updated DEM, previously derived by using also the
more recent high spatial resolution satellite stereo images, will be used as input parameters
of advanced numerical modelling schemes in order to accurately simulate lava flow paths
and to predict their space-time evolution in a timely manner.
Finally, we will explore the possibility of slowing and diverting the lava flow by using
artificial barriers to guide their course. Simulations of the lava flow paths after the
designed intervention will be performed to predict the benefits of the action the related
rewards and disadvantages respect to the natural path. The barriers will be modelled by
modifying the pre-eruption topography to be used as input parameter of the simulations.
Graphical presentation of the work packages and their interdependencies.
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List of Research Units (RU):
RU
RU-01*
RU-02
RU-03
RU-04
RU-05
RU-06
RU-07
RU-08
RU-09
RU-10
Scientific Responsible
Ciro Del Negro
Stefano Gresta
Gino Mirocle Crisci
Massimiliano Favalli
Luigi Fortuna
Valerio Lombardo
Maria Marsella
Giovanni Russo
Andrea Tallarico
Valerio Tramutoli
Organization
INGV – Sezione di Catania
University of Catania – DSG
University of Calabria – DST
INGV – Sezione di Pisa
University of Catania – DIEES
INGV – Centro Nazionale Terremoti
University of Roma “La Sapienza” – DITS
University of Catania – DMI
University of Bari – DGG
University of Basilicata- DIFA
Acronym
INGV-CT
UNICT-DSG
UNICAL-DST
INGV-PI
UNICT-DIEES
INGV-CNT
UNIRM-DITS
UNICT-DMI
UNIBA-DGG
UNIBAS-DIFA
*List of Teams (TM) of Research Unit 01:
TEAM
TM-01A
TM-01B
TM-01C
TM-01D
TM-01E
TM-01F
TM-01G
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Scientific Responsible
Mauro Coltelli
Fabrizio Ferrucci
Marco Neri
Harry Pinkerton
Danilo Reitano
Alexis Herault
Annamaria Vicari
Organization
INGV - Sezione di Catania
University of Calabria – DST
INGV Sezione di Catania
University of Lancaster (UK)
INGV Sezione di Catania
Acronym
INGV-CT
UNICAL-DST
INGV-CT
UNILAN-UK
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
Project V3 – Lava
Description of Tasks
LAVA relies upon the integration of advanced numerical models with robust satellite
techniques for dynamic hazard assessment and mitigation. The project will develop along five
Tasks:
Task 1. Guide Line and Protocols – Data Base and digital maps in GIS architecture to integrate
geological, geophysical and geochemical data. Development of protocols and scenarios to
manage lava flow hazard. Feasibility study to transfer results at “Centro Funzionale” of
Department of Civil Protection (DPC).
Task 2. Numerical Simulations and Satellite Techniques – Development of physicalmathematical models for lava flow simulations. Development of techniques based on
satellite data for collecting parameters to be input into lava flow simulators.
Task 3. Lava Flow Invasion Hazard Map – Definition of guidelines to develop lava flow
invasion hazard maps and their dynamic update. Eruption history and features of the lava
flow as a constraint on hazard simulation. Lava flow invasion hazard maps.
Task 4. Vent Opening Probability Map – Mid and short term probability map of eruptive
fracture opening using terrestrial and satellite data. Methodologies for the dynamic
updating of hazard maps based on observable data. Tests on recent eruptive events.
Task 5. Scenario Forecast and Hazard Mitigation – Lava flow simulations driven by
infrared satellite data from active lava flows. Protocols for the real-time prediction of lava
flow paths for planning emergency response. Barrier design for volcano hazard mitigation.
For each Task several Working Packages (WP) have been identified to answer to the
request of the project. A sketch description of each Task will be presented in the next
pages together with a list of expected deliverables (according to the activities planned by
each Research Unit) and the inter-connections between them. A detailed description of the
scientific activities is left to the forms compiled by the Research Units. To assume an
efficient management of this consortium and to build a good communication network, all
Tasks will be directly managed by two coordinators.
Project work breakdown structure.
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TASK 1. GUIDELINES AND PROTOCOLS
RU and TM Partecipating
RU Del Negro, TM Coltelli, TM Ferrucci, TM Neri, TM Pinkerton, TM Reitano, TM
Herault, TM Vicari, RU Gresta, RU Crisci, RU Favalli, RU Fortuna, RU Lombardo, RU
Marsella, RU Russo, RU Tallarico, RU Tramutoli
Objectives
Definition of guidelines to develop lava flow invasion hazard maps and their dynamic
update.
Description of the activity
From our experience in the volcano-specific work we will synthesize new methodologies,
protocols, procedures and scenarios to evaluate and manage lava flow hazards. The
improvement of protocols for forecasting volcanic threat and planning damage reduction
efforts will be used to prepare a guide on prevention and mitigation of volcanic crisis, to be
provided to local governments and civil protection authorities.
Work-Packages
WP 1.1 - Development of internal and public Web portal
An internal and public Web portal will be created by the coordinators at the beginning of
the project. All general information concerning the projects will be posted in this site. The
lava flow hazard maps of Etna volcano, developed on an open source platform, will be
transferred as tools for territorial planning and hazard mapping to end users.
Role of participants
Coordinators: creation of the Web portal uploaded of all general information.
The other Participants: contribution with ideas, information and data.
WP 1.2 – Guide lines for the hazard map and methods for its dynamic update
Elaboration of guidelines on how the hazard map may be organized to be more effective,
including elaboration of methods for its dynamic update by considering time variations of
observations and expert opinions.
Coordinators and the other Participants: transferring of new methodologies, hazard criteria,
protocols, procedures and scenarios to evaluate and manage volcanic hazard to end users.
WP 1.3 – Feasibility study to realize a DPC interface
Definition of procedures and protocols to transfer results coming from Task 3, Task 4, and
Task 5 to DPC about: lateral vents opening probability for different sectors of the
volcanoes, localization of the eruptive vents, lava effusion rate measurements, possible
lava flow paths evaluation, lava movement speed evaluation, definition of the most
exposed villages, time the lava flow needs to reach settled areas, time and kind of
intervention.
Coordinators and the other Participants: transferring of new methodologies, hazard criteria,
protocols, procedures and scenarios to evaluate and manage volcanic hazard to end users.
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Project V3 – Lava
Deliverables
D1.1a – Web site (month 3, update monthly).
D1.1b – Lava flow hazard map on an open source GIS.
D1.2a – Report on lava flow risk evaluation criteria.
D1.2b – Guidelines on prevision, prevention and mitigation of volcanic hazard.
D1.3a – Report on procedures to manage lava flow hazard.
D1.3b – Protocols on hazard management for the end-users.
TASK 2. NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS AND SATELLITE TECHNIQUES
RU Del Negro, TM Ferrucci, TM Pinkerton, TM Reitano, TM Herault, TM Vicari, RU
Crisci, RU Favalli, RU Fortuna, RU Lombardo, RU Russo, RU Tallarico, RU Tramutoli
Objectives
Development of physical-mathematical models for forecasting lava flow paths and
improvement of satellite techniques to drive flow simulations.
We will develop innovative computer codes able to include much of the physical
parameterization of lava flows in terms of viscosity, yield strength, and density and bring
the goal of robust forecasting closer. The code performance will be assessed by a
sensitivity analysis on the input parameters, carried out by simulating actual lava flows
having a well known eruptive history. Moreover, techniques capable of measuring effusion
rates during an eruption are of particular value since accurate effusion rate estimates are
important in hazard prediction, warning, and mitigation. To this end, we will develop
techniques that use thermal infrared satellite data to estimate the instantaneous lava flow
output by a vent throughout eruptions. These time-varying effusion rates will be used to
drive lava flow simulations calculated by physical-mathematical models that can take into
account the way in which effusion rate changes during an eruption and how this influences
the spread of lava as a function of time.
Work-Packages:
WP 2.1 – Physical and chemical parameterization of flow behavior
Collection of the available physical and chemical data for all the lava flow eruptions taken
into account. Conversion of laboratory-derived petrological data into admissible
rheological parameter fields. Evaluation of the input parameters to be used for accurate
simulations of the observed final flow extent.
TM Coltelli: collection of the available physical and chemical data for lava flow eruptions
of Etna volcano; input parameter evaluation and library of simulator parameters creation.
RU Tallarico and TM Pinkerton: laboratory- and field-derived lava rheology analysis and
rheological modelling; input parameter evaluation and library of simulator parameters
creation.
WP 2.2 – Development of thermal and fluid-dynamical models of lava flows
Quantitative studies on the dynamics of lava flows in order to provide the physical
constrains necessary to develop a method to predict the lava flows path. Improvement of
the reliability of the dynamical models of lava flows considering non-linear rheologies.
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The latest multicomponent models for lava viscosity will be included in the numerical
codes.
RU Tallarico and TM Pinkerton: experimental data concerning thermal properties of lava.
RU Russo and RU Tallarico: Dynamical models with non linear rheology. Models for crust
formation.
WP 2.3 – Development of techniques for hot-spot detection
Development and validation up to a pre-operative level of robust satellite techniques for
real-time detection and monitoring of hot spots related to volcanic eruptions.
RU Tramutoli, RU Fortuna, TM Vicari, and RU Lombardo: improved algorithms for hot
spots detection based on MODIS and AVHRR sensors
TM Ferrucci, TM Vicari, and RU Del Negro: improved algorithms for hot spots detection
based on SEVIRI and MODIS sensors.
WP 2.4 - Development of techniques for lava effusion rate measurements
Development and validation up to a pre-operative level of robust satellite techniques for
near real-time effusion rate lava flow estimations.
RU Tramutoli, RU Del Negro, RU Tallarico, RU Fortuna and RU Lombardo: improved
algorithms for measurements of effusion rate based on MODIS and AVHRR sensors
RU Ferrucci and RU Del Negro: improved algorithms for hot spots detection based on
SEVIRI and MODIS sensors.
WP 2.5 – Development of techniques for intra-event rapid DEM mapping
Definition of an innovative approach for rapid generation Digital Elevation Model over
area where volcano unrest is occurring.
RU Lombardo, RU Del Negro: Study of a methodology for post-event DEM correction
starting from a pre-event DEM and jointly using all the different sensors data available
over the area
WP 2.6 – Development of numerical models for lava flow simulations
Existing and new models based on different physical formulations and approaches will be
developed and applied to real cases in order to make model inter-comparisons and more
robust forecasts of the phenomena. Models will also use, as much as possible, data
deriving from the field observations, for model validation, and experimental data, for
constitutive equations.
RU Del Negro, RU Russo, RU Fortuna, TM Herault, and TM Vicari: development of
computer coded, code performance and sensitivity analyses.
RU Del Negro, TM Vicari, TM Herault, and TM Coltelli: testing different ways to
assimilate field observations into the simulation code.
RU Del Negro, RU Fortuna, RU Russo, TM Herault, TM Vicari: sensitivity analyses on
topographic data.
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Project V3 – Lava
Deliverables
D2.1 - Database of chemical and physical parameters to fit the observed geometrical
features of selected eruptions.
D2.2 – Report on thermal and fluid-dynamical models of lava flows.
D2.3 – Report on techniques for hot-spot detection.
D2.4 – Report on techniques for lava effusion rate measurements.
D2.5 – Report on techniques for intra-event rapid DEM mapping.
D2.6a – Report on the numerical simulation techniques adopted for forecast and
probabilistic hazard assessment.
D2.6b – Report on sensitivity analysis of the code to the input parameters.
D2.6c – Report on how best to assimilate observational data into simulations.
TASK 3. LAVA FLOW INVASION HAZARD MAP
RU Del Negro, TM Coltelli, TM Neri, TM Pinkerton, TM Reitano, TM Herault, TM
Vicari, RU Crisci, RU Favalli, RU Fortuna, RU Russo
Objectives
Realization of lava flow invasion hazard maps. Lava flow hazard map for Etna volcano
will be implemented on GIS environment by means of a statistical analysis of the
simulated lava-flow eruptions obtained by numerical modelling of long- and short-term
forecasts of the evolution of volcanic phenomena.
The probabilistic long-term hazard assessment will be based on the positioning of a fixed
number of vents, through a multivariate statistical analysis on past eruptions. Eruption
history and features of the lava flow past will be a constraint on hazard simulation. The
probabilistic short-term hazard assessment will be based on the evaluation of the most
probable eruption expected in next period (years – tens of years). The library of input
chemical and physical parameters will allow to set the eruption characteristics to be
assigned to the selected vents. Monte Carlo-derived ensemble simulations will be used to
evaluate long-term lava flow hazard as the probability of invasion of every point that is the
ratio between the number of overruns and the total number of simulations. This probability
map will define the relative lava flow hazards over the whole volcano.
Work-Packages
WP 3.1 – Eruption history as a constraint on hazard simulation
Geo-Database of the features of the lava flow eruption of the last 4 century. Use of well
known lava flow eruptions for Etna volcano from literature and non-published data
available at the INGV-CT to constrain general volcano behaviour: duration, volume,
effusion rate trend, rheological quality of the lava flow eruptions.
TM Coltelli and TM Neri: space-temporal statistical analysis of the lava flow eruptions to
generate classes and probability distribution functions that will act as specific constraints to
the probabilistic generation of simulation ensembles.
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WP 3.2 – Topographic data quality
Collection of the available topographic data for all the studied volcanic areas. Analysis of
the topographic data quality (precision and accuracy). Analysis of the effect of that quality
on the lava flow simulations.
TM Coltelli: collection of the available Etna topographic data, analysis of their influence
on lava flow simulations.
RU Marsella and Favalli: topographic data requirement and quality assessment for
numerical simulations; analysis of their influence on lava flow simulations.
WP 3.3 – GIS database developing for hazard map
The already available GIS of the geological map of Etna will be extended to include the
physical and chemical information of the historical lava flow eruptions revised by both
recent studies and the new historical catalogue of the eruptions performed by INGV-CT.
Geometrical data obtained by topographic techniques will also be included. In order to
anticipate areas that could be overrun by lava from different source regions, a layer of the
new GIS will be realized to report the identified lava flow inundation zones on the base of
both new high-resolution geological data and the simulated lava-flow eruptions obtained
by numerical modelling of long- and short-term forecasts of the evolution of volcanic
phenomena. The areas with highest probability of lava invasion around several villages in
the Etnean region will be identified.
RU Del Negro, TM Coltelli, and TM Reitano: updating of the GIS of Etna geological map
to include physical, chemical and geometrical parameters of the historical lava flows;
introducing new layers for lava inundation zoning.
WP 3.4: Probabilistic lava flow simulations for long-term volcanic hazard assessment
The probabilistic long-term hazard assessment will be based on the catalogue of past
eruptions and on the positioning of a fixed number of vents, through a multivariate
statistical analysis. The database and the considerations reported will allow to set up the
eruption characteristics to be assigned to the selected vents.
RU Del Negro, RU Crisci and RU Favalli: running of a great number of lava flow
simulations, whose characteristics will be selected by a statistical analysis of past events, to
asses long-term hazard.
RU Del Negro, TM Herault, TM Vicari, TM Coltelli, and RU Russo: statistical analysis of
past events to select the characteristics of simulated lava flows.
WP 3.5: Probabilistic lava flow simulations for short-term volcanic hazard assessment
The probabilistic short-term hazard assessment will be based on the evaluation of the most
probable eruption expected in next period (years – tens of years) and on the positioning of
a fixed number of vents, through a multivariate statistical analysis.
RU Del Negro, RU Crisci and RU Favalli: short-term hazard assessment running a number
of lava flow simulations close to the most probable eruption expected in next period.
RU Del Negro TM Herault, TM Vicari, TM Coltelli, and TM Fortuna: statistical analysis
of recent events to select the characteristics of simulated lava flows.
190
Project V3 – Lava
WP 3.6 – Statistic analysis of the simulation results and implementation of the hazard map
The long-term hazard map will show the probability of invasion of every point, defined as
the ratio between the number of overruns and the total number of simulations. This map
will define the total area that could potentially be affected but not which area will be
covered by a specific eruption.
RU Del Negro, RU Russo, RU Fortuna, TM Herault, TM Vicari and TM Coltelli: analysis
of simulation results to provide the long- and short-term hazard map.
RU Del Negro, TM Coltelli and TM Reitano: implementation of the GIS database of Etna
hazard map.
Deliverables:
D3.1 – Past eruptions features, including geological, physical chemical and geometrical
data, structured as GIS layers.
D3.2a – Collection of all the available topographic data on Etna volcano which satisfy the
accuracy requirements for the simulations.
D3.2b – Report on topographic data collected including quality assessment.
D3.3 – Generation of classes and probability distribution functions, by a space-temporal
statistical analysis of the eruptions, to constrain the probabilistic generation of simulation
ensembles.
D3.4 – Report on the result of the long-term volcanic hazard assessment.
D3.5 – Report on the result of the short-term volcanic hazard assessment.
D3.6 – GIS database of Etna lava flow hazard map.
TASK 4. VENT OPENING PROBABILITY MAP
RU Gresta, TM Neri, TM Reitano, RU Del Negro, RU Russo
Objectives
Definition of a medium term hazard map of the vent opening probability. Development of
new methodologies to update in time the short term probability hazard map.
Realization of a probabilistic assessment of vent location mainly based on seismological
(earthquakes and tremor) and volcanological data, integrated with other geophysical and
geochemical data, in co-operation with expert researchers by INGV (Roma, Bologna,
Catania and Palermo).
Work-Packages
WP 4.1 Database in GIS architecture (in co-operation with Project V4-Flank)
A huge amount of data and information need to be analyzed and combined in order to
better investigate the direct and derived volcanic hazards. All data available in the project
together with lava flow simulations and satellite images will be transformed and unified in
a coherent way to allow integration into a geographic information system (GIS). A
completely new, interactive, and user-friendly software tool will be developed as a webbased multimedia platform. Collection of geophysical, volcanological and geochemical
191
data acquired at Etna from 1996 to 2004. The database will be implemented with the aim
of ensure the maximum compatibility with the WOVOdat standard.
TM Reitano and RU Del Negro: organization of the database, collection of validated data
from surveys and previous monitoring systems operating on the volcano.
RU Gresta and TM Neri: providing seismological, geophysical, volcanological,
geochemical data in hard and/or elaborated versions.
WP 4.2 Medium term probability map for the opening of eruptive fractures.
Definition of the features of structural trends; distribution of vents, fractures and fissure.
Analysis of the eruptive history of the volcano. Test for the stability and choice of the
reference medium term hazard map.
RU Gresta and TM Neri: analysis and interpretation of geo-structural and volcanological
data in order to produce the reference medium term hazard map.
WP 4.3 Time update of the probability map for the opening of eruptive fractures.
Analysis of data coming from WP4.1. Choice of the significant benchmarks for the
retrospective analysis of the state of the volcano. Application of BET. Procedures to test
the weight of the single input parameters. Test for the stability of results by changing input
parameters and weight of the expert opinion. Choice of the reference medium term hazard
map.
RU Gresta, TM Neri, and RU Russo: analysis of seismological, geophysical,
volcanological, geochemical data referring to several pre-eruptive periods (basically during
the time span 1996-2004). Application of BET to update the probability map.
Deliverables
D4.1 – Data base
D4.2a – Reference hazard map for vent opening probability
D4.2b – Test for the stability
D4.3a – Dynamic maps of the hazard of opening vents.
D4.3b – Test on the different weights for parameters and expert opinions
D4.3c – Validation of BET.
TASK 5. SCENARIO FORECAST AND HAZARD MITIGATION
RU Del Negro, TM Coltelli, TM Ferrucci, TM Herault, TM Vicari, RU Crisci, RU Favalli,
RU Fortuna, RU Lombardo, RU Marsella, RU Tramutoli
Objectives
Lava flow simulations driven by infrared satellite data of an ongoing effusive eruption.
Protocols for the real-time prediction of lava flow paths for planning emergency response.
Barrier design for volcano hazard mitigation.
192
Project V3 – Lava
The simulation of an ongoing effusive eruption must be based on the estimation of all the
observable data (position of flow source, area, thickness, channel speed, extrusion rate,
front advance and temperature) using ground-based and satellite-borne techniques. This
data can then be used to both initialize flow simulations and to attempt near real-time
correction of these simulations via assimilation of new observations. The simulation of
flow emplacement will start from the reproduction of the actual lava extent, and then it will
be carried on through the implementation of a number of possible evolution scenarios.
Such simulations could foresee inhabited areas or structures to be threatened by a lava flow
and they may be adopted to check the results of mitigatory actions, such as building up of
earth barriers or excavation of artificial channels. These operations can be easily modelled
after an opportune modification of the volcano topography.
Work-Packages
WP 5.1 – Hot-spot detection in near real-time
Near real-time detection and monitoring of thermal anomalies related to volcanic eruptions
from thermal infrared satellite imagery. Completely automated generation of satellite data
based products.
RU Del Negro, TM Ferrucci, TM Vicari, RU Lombardo, RU Tramutoli: Implementation
and test of automated processing chain for satellite product generation.
RU Del Negro, TM Ferrucci, TM Vicari, RU Lombardo, RU Tramutoli: Design,
implementation and test of interfaces for the integration of satellite based products into the
DPC operational system.
WP 5.2 – Near real-time data collection of critical lava-flow emplacement parameters
Observations of flow source, area, thickness, channel speed, front advance and temperature
using ground-based, air-borne and satellite-borne techniques. Conversion of these specific
observations in an assimilation scheme that will use them to modify/implement the forward
flow simulations.
TM Coltelli: study of what observations are available and best suited for assimilation into
the simulations; measurements of syn-eruptive data during an Etna eruption; conversion of
specific observations in an assimilation scheme to implement the forward flow simulations.
RU Marsella: measurements of syn-eruptive data during an Etna eruption by topographic
techniques.
RU Tallarico and TM Pinkerton: conversion of rheological observations in input data for
lava flow simulation.
WP 5.3 – Effusion rates from thermal infrared satellite imagery
Near real-time satellite-based measurements of effusion rate during on-going eruptions.
Automated system for the acquisition/ processing/post-processing/delivery of satellite data.
RU Del Negro, TM Ferrucci, TM Vicari, RU Lombardo, RU Tramutoli: Implementation
and test of automated processing chain for satellite product generation.
RU Del Negro, TM Ferrucci, TM Vicari, RU Lombardo, RU Tramutoli: Design,
implementation and test of interfaces for the integration of satellite based products into the
DPC operational system.
193
WP 5.4 – Lava flow paths forecasting during an eruption
Lava flow emplacement during an ongoing eruption will be forecasted by simulations
starting from the actual lava extent. A number of possible evolution scenarios should be
implemented for assessing its progress.
RU Del Negro, TM Herault, TM Vicari, RU Crisci, RU Favalli: definition of possible
eruption scenarios and simulation of the ongoing eruption.
RU Del Negro: definition of possible environment scenarios.
WP 5.5 – Lava flow simulations including diversion barriers during an eruption
The simulations carried out during an ongoing eruption could foresee inhabited areas or
structures to be threatened by a lava flow. In such cases simulations may check the results
of mitigatory actions such as building up of earth barriers or excavation of artificial
channels. Such operation can be easily simulated after an opportune modification of the
volcano topography. Planning the protection of some selected sensitive objectives that
were really threatened during recent Etna eruptions.
TM Coltelli, TM Herault, TM Vicari: definition of mitigatory actions on the ongoing
eruption and their simulation.
RU Marsella: make opportune modifications of the volcano topography for planning of
mitigatory actions on the ongoing eruption.
RU Del Negro: management of mitigatory actions on the ongoing eruption.
Deliverables
D5.1a - Hot-spot detection in near real time from satellite data.
D5.2a - Report on suitable observational data sources, types and quality.
D5.2b - Database of all the available syn-eruptive data of an ongoing eruption (depending
on the eruption).
D5.3 – Effusion rate measurements in near real time from satellite data.
D5.4 - Report on the simulation of different scenarios of an ongoing eruption (depending
on the eruption).
D5.5a - Report on the simulation of different scenarios of an ongoing eruption by taking
into account mitigatory actions (depending on the eruption).
D5.5b - Planning, simulating and analysis of test cases of the protection of selected
sensitive objectives at Etna.
194
Project V3 – Lava
Flow chart of project achievements and products
195
List of deliverables
General
1. Data used in the project, organized in a database.
2. Guidelines for the realization of lava flow invasion hazard maps and their dynamic
update.
3. Probability map of opening of new fractures and eruptive vents on a short and medium
period, realized by dynamic update methodologies.
4. Hazard map for invasion of lava flows, realized using dynamic update methodology.
5. Tests of some selected eruptions for the vent opening probability maps, for the lava
flow invasion hazard maps, and for the methodology for the dynamic update.
6. Feasibility study to transfer results at “Centro Funzionale” of Dept. of Civil Protection
(DPC).
Task 1. Guide Line and Protocols
D1.1a – Web site (month 3, update monthly).
D1.1b – Lava flow hazard map on an open source GIS.
D1.2a – Report on lava flow risk evaluation criteria.
D1.2b – Guidelines on prevision, prevention and mitigation of volcanic hazard.
D1.3a – Report on procedures to manage lava flow hazard.
D1.3b – Protocols on hazard management for the end-users.
Task 2. Numerical Simulations and Satellite Techniques
D2.1 - Database of chemical and physical parameters of selected eruptions.
D2.2 – Report on thermal and fluid-dynamical models of lava flows.
D2.3 – Report on techniques for hot-spot detection.
D2.4 – Report on techniques for lava effusion rate measurements.
D2.5 – Report on techniques for intra-event rapid DEM mapping.
D2.6a – Report on numerical simulation techniques adopted for forecast and probabilistic
hazard assessment.
D2.6b – Report on sensitivity analysis of the code to the input parameters.
D2.6c – Report on how best to assimilate observational data into simulations.
Task 3. Lava Flow Invasion Hazard Map
D3.1 – Past eruptions features, including geological, physical chemical and geometrical
data, structured as GIS layers.
D3.2a – Collection of all the available topographic data on Etna volcano which satisfy the
accuracy requirements for the simulations.
D3.2b – Report on topographic data collected including quality assessment.
D3.3 – Generation of classes and probability distribution functions, by a space-temporal
statistical analysis of the eruptions, to constrain the probabilistic generation of simulation
ensembles.
D3.4 – Report on the result of the long-term volcanic hazard assessment.
D3.5 – Report on the result of the short-term volcanic hazard assessment.
D3.6 – GIS database of Etna lava flow hazard map.
Task 4. Vent Opening Probability Map
D4.1 – Data base
D4.2a – Reference hazard map for vent opening probability
D4.2b – Test for the stability
D4.3a – Dynamic maps of the hazard of opening vents.
196
Project V3 – Lava
D4.3b – Test on the different weights for parameters and expert opinions
D4.3c – Validation of BET.
Task 5. Scenario Forecast and Hazard Mitigation
D5.1a - Hot-spot detection in near real time from satellite data.
D5.2a - Report on suitable observational data sources, types and quality.
D5.2b - Database of all the available syn-eruptive data of an ongoing eruption.
D5.3 – Effusion rate measurements in near real time from satellite data.
D5.4 - Report on the simulation of different scenarios of an ongoing eruption.
D5.5a - Report on the simulation of different scenarios of an ongoing eruption by taking
into account mitigatory actions (depending on the eruption).
D5.5b - Planning, simulating and analysis of test cases of the protection of selected
sensitive objectives at Etna.
197
Project implementation
Main project outputs and milestones
• MS1 (Month 7): Lava-flow numerical simulation codes, satellite-based techniques and
specifications of data to run the model are provided.
• MS2 (Month 13; Mid term assessment): Lava-flow hazard map and vent opening
probability map development are addressed. Lava diversion barrier strategies are
essentially defined. Evaluating of mid-term results to redefine (if necessary) the work
plan for the remaining part of the contract.
• MS3 (Month 20): Lava-flow hazard maps and vent opening probability maps for the
Etna volcano are provided.
• MS4 (Month 26; at the end of the project): Report on the management of lava flow
hazards and the feasibility study for the realization of an interface to transfer results at
“Centro Funzionale” of Department of Civil Protection (DPC) are provided.
Project reports
To keep the project effective from the start, the project management plan will be
elaborated in detail before the start of the project. The project management plan includes
guidelines for deliverables, presentation and reporting standards, deadlines. The
coordinators will assemble and control the deliverables, supervise the evolving project
results at each six month milestone.
Project reports will be produced as follows:
Management report: at the end of year 1 and 2 the Project Coordinators will produce a
management report that will include a description of progress according to the work-plan.
Scientific report: at the end of year 1 and 2 the Project Coordinators will compile (from
task contributions) a comprehensive project report on the results and activities of all the
participants
At the end of the project, a Final report will be submitted to the Evaluation Committee,
according to guidelines given at the contract negotiation stage. This report will include a
detailed summary of the scientific achievements of the project. A list of scientific
publications on the results of the project will be included.
Project meetings
On whole project, Project meetings will be held twice during each project year to discuss
research and planning. The main objectives of these meetings will be to present an update
of the research to the entire consortium. The RU Leaders (or members of individual teams
when necessary) will present the results, and this will be followed by a workshop style
session and discussion. The coordinators will be responsible for administrative
arrangements of meetings.
This is a multidisciplinary project and it is not expected that all partners will be adequately
aware of the latest developments in all the relevant fields. To help overcome this and to
foster more scientific cohesion, we will commence the Kick-off meeting with a one day
workshop. The objective of this workshop will be to inform participants about the basic
principles behind and state of the art in all disciplines involved in the project.
We are aware that some points of V3 LAVA and V4 FLANK projects are overlapping.
Some ones are “technical” aspects as the common use of same data bases, digital elevation
models, etc. Other ones are complementary activities aimed at defining the general
knowledge of volcano dynamics. For these reasons, we intend to hold our Kick-off
meeting in conjunction with V4 FLANK project, and planned a continuous exchange of
data and information through the whole duration of the two projects.
198
Project V3 – Lava
Consortium as a whole
This project gathers the efforts of 11 Research Units (RUs), belonging to 7 Departments of
Italian Universities and 4 INGV Sections. The experience and expertise of the consortium
spans the entire range of multidisciplinary tasks addressed in LAVA. The partnership
represents an optimal mix of interdisciplinary skills, scientific both academic and
application oriented ones, the latter in sense of volcano monitoring, and Civil Protection
authority. All the groups are carrying out leading edge research in their area of expertise.
The consortium was built with an eye on the complementary character of the expertise and
the interdisciplinary nature of the project. We confide that this consortium is well-balanced
in relation to the objectives of the project. Most teams have already worked together within
previous DPC programmes on projects involving volcanic problems. This makes the team
confident of an effective and efficient working relationship.
Resources to be committed
Most partners will recruit postdoctoral fellows directly funded through the project, and the
requested budget takes these into account. Considering that all groups are carrying out
leading edge research on hazard assessment and management of volcanic threats, they will
provide a high quality training environment for the young researchers (PhD students and
post doctoral fellows) and experts on risk management who will be employed in the
project.
The Management activities costs have been requested only by the project coordinators.
199
TABLE MAN/MONTHS
Research
Unit
RU-01*
RU-02
RU-03
RU-04
RU-05
RU-06
RU-07
RU-08
RU-09
RU-10
Institution
INGV- CT
UNICTDSG
UNICALDST
INGV-PI
UNICTDIEES
INGV-CNT
UNIRMDITS
UNICTDMI
UNIBADGG
UNIBASDIFA
Principal
Responsible
Del Negro
Gresta
Task
1
Tas
k2
Tas
k3
Tas
k4
Tas
k5
@
@
@
@
@
@
Crisci
@
@
@
Favalli
Fortuna
@
@
@
@
Lombardo
Marsella
@
Russo
@
@
Tallarico
Tramutoli
Personmonths
cofunded
Personmonths
requested
121
79
8*
@
@
46
23
1
@
@
30
16
4*
@
25
@
30
@
@
44
@
@
56
Total
470
13
*Requested within the present Agreement, but not included within the Project cost statement
*Teams of Research Unit 01
Team
Institution
Principal
Responsible
Coord.
INGV- CT
Del Negro
TM-01A
Coltelli
TM-01E
TM-01F
INGV- CT
UNICALDST
INGV- CT
UNILANUK
INGV- CT
INGV- CT
TM-01G
INGV- CT
Vicari
TM-01B
TM-01C
TM-01D
Total
200
Tas
k2
Tas
k3
Tas
k4
Tas
k5
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
10
10
@
@
@
2
8
Ferrucci
@
Neri
Pinkerton
Reitano
Herault
Personmonths
cofunded
Tas
k1
@
@
@
@
@
3
26
31
@
@
@
31
@
@
121
Personmonths
requested
Project V3 – Lava
Project V3 – LAVA. Financial Plan for the First Phase (Euros).
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
1) Spese di personale
1800
0,00
2) Spese per missioni
75700
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
3) Costi amministrativi (solo per
Coordinatori di Progetto)
4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre
prestazioni professionali
1000
193000
0,00
5) Spese per servizi
2000
0,00
6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo
57700
0,00
7) Spese indirette (spese generali)
28800
0,00
360000
0,00
Totale
0,00
Project V3 – LAVA. Financial Plan for the Second Phase (Euros).
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
1800
0,00
73700
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
1000
198000
0,00
2000
0,00
55500
0,00
28000
0,00
360000
0,00
Totale
0,00
201
Project V3 – LAVA. Total Financial Plan, First + Second Phase (Euros).
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
3600
0,00
149400
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
2000
391000
0,00
4000
0,00
113200
0,00
56800
0,00
720000
0,00
Totale
202
0,00
Project V3 – Lava
Project V3 – LAVA. Table RU’s and related funding request.
N. RU
Istituz.
Resp UR
Personale
Missioni
Studi,ricerche
Costi
e prestazioni
amministrativi
professionali
2nd
1st
2nd
1st
2nd
1st
1st
phase phase phase phase phase phase phase
RU-1
RU-2
RU-3
RU-4
RU-5
RU-6
RU-7
RU-8
RU-9
RU10
INGV-CT
UNI-CT
UNI-CAL
INGV-PI
UNI-CT
INGV-CNT
UNI-RM1
UNI-CT
UNI-BA
Del Negro
Gresta
Crisci
Favalli
Fortuna
Lombardo
Marsella
Russo
Tallarico
32000 30000
10000 10000
1800
UNI-BAS Tramutoli
TOTAL
1000
1800
1800
1000 64000
Materiale
durevole
e di consumo
Spese
indirette
2nd
1st
2nd
1st
2nd
1st
2nd
phase phase phase phase phase phase phase
72000
10200
2000 10000 10000
5000
5000
8000
8000
5000
5000
2000
2000
2200
2200
10000
10000
4000
4000
2000
2000
3500
3500
19000
19000
1000
1000
500
500
4000
4000
3000
9200 12200
1800
1800
4000
4000
10000
10000
1000
4000
4000
19000
19000
500
500
500
500
8000
8000
25000
25000
3000
3000
4000
4000
3000
3000
12000
12000
3000
3000
2000
2000
2000 57700 55500 28800
28000
1000
23000 2000
21000 15800 11000
5000
1800 75700 73700
23000
Servizi
1000 193000 198000 2000
5000
1000
GRAND TOTAL: 720000
203
*Teams of Research Unit 01
1) Spese di
personale
Team
Phase a
Phase b
2) Spese per
missioni
3) Costi amministr.
(solo per Coord. di
Progetto)
4) Spese
studi e ricerche e
prestazioni
professionali
Phase a
Phase b
5000
5000
10000
10000
Phase a
Phase b
Phase a
Phase b
Coord.
7000
7000
1000
1000
TM-01A
7000
7000
TM-01B
TM-01C
4000
4000
TM-01D
Phase a
Phase b
6) Materiale
tecnico durevole e
consumo
7) Spese indirette
(spese generali)
Phase a
Phase b
Phase a
Phase b
2000
2000
6000
6000
2000
2000
1000
1000
1800
1800
1200
1200
8000
8000
2000
2000
3000
3000
8000
5200
TM-01E
2000
TM-01F
6000
6000
20000
20000
3000
3000
1000
1000
TM-01G
6000
6000
20000
20000
3000
3000
1000
1000
32000
30000
64000
72000
21000
15800
11000
10200
Sub-total
204
5) Spese per
servizi
1000
1000
800
Project V3 – Lava
PROJECT V3 – LAVA
Description of Research Units
205
206
Project V3 – Lava
Project V3 - LAVA
Realization of the lava flow invasion hazard map at Mt Etna
and methods for its dynamic update
RU V3/01
Scientific Responsible: Ciro Del Negro, Senior researcher, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica
e Vulcanologia-Sezione di Catania, Piazza Roma 2, 95123 Catania, email:
[email protected], tel: 095-7165823, fax: 095 435801
RU Composition:
Man/Months 1st
phase
5
Man/Months 2nd
phase
5
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Ciro Del Negro
Senior
researcher
INGV-CT
Participants
Position
Institution
Man/Months 1st
phase
Man/Months 2nd
phase
Senior
researcher
Researcher
Contract Res.
Fellow
INGV-CT
2
2
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
3
0
0
3
0
0
Associate
Professor
Università
della Calabria
1
1
Researcher
Researcher
Contract Res.
Researcher
INGV-CT
UniRM3
INGV-RM
INGV-CT
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
1
Team 01A
Mauro Coltelli *
Stefano Branca
Cristina Proietti
Emanuela De Beni
Team 01B
Fabrizio Ferrucci *
Team 01C
Neri Marco *
Valerio Acocella
Boris Behncke
Salvatore
Giammanco
Mazzarini
Francesco
Derek Rust
Researcher
INGV-PI
0
0
Senior Res.
Brunel Univ.
1
1
Team 01D
Harry Pinkerton *
Full Professor
1
1
Mike James
Research Fellow
Lancaster
Univ.
Lancaster Univ
0.5
0.5
Team 01E
Danilo Reitano *
Marcello Dagostino
Orazio Torrisi
Fabrizio Pistagna
Antonino Drago
Silvia Cariolo
Gaetano Russo
Sebastiano Lizzio
Technologist
CTER
CTER
Fellow
Fellow
CoCoPro
CoCoPro
CoCoPro
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
PON COMETA
PON COMETA
PON COMETA
PON COMETA
PON COMETA
3
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
3
2
2
6
6
Team 01F
Alexis Herault *
Research Fellow
INGV-CT
3
3
207
Gilda Currenti
Rosalba Napoli
Scandura Danila
Budetta Gennaro
Salvatore Giudice
Researcher
Researcher
PhD student
Director of Res.
PhD student
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
0
3
0
3
7
0
3
6
3
0
Team 01G
Annamaria Vicari *
Alessia Ciraudo
Gaetana Ganci
Filippo Greco
Karabiber Fethullah
Researcher
Post-doc student
Post-doc student
Technologist
PhD student
2
0
3
3
3
2
3
3
3
3
Antonino Sicali
CTER
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
University of
Istanbul
INGV-CT
3
3
*Scientific responsible of the Team
Description of Activity
WP 1.2 Guide lines for the hazard map and methods for its dynamic update
WP 1.3 Feasibility study to realize a DPC interface
From our experience in the volcano-specific work we will synthesize new methodologies,
protocols, procedures and scenarios to evaluate and manage lava flow hazards. The
improvement of protocols for forecasting volcanic threat and planning damage reduction
efforts will be used to prepare a guide on prevention and mitigation of volcanic crisis, to be
provided to local governments and civil protection authorities.
Team 01A – Mauro Coltelli
WP 3.1 Eruption history as a constraint on hazard simulation
In order to identify the areas with the highest probability of source vents and to analyse the
typical physical features (duration, volume, effusion rate trend, rheological quality) of the
lava flow eruptions occurring in that areas. A zoning, on the basis of historical, prehistoric
and geological records, is necessary. These areas will be assumed as sources of lava flows
to be simulated, having an uniform distribution inside, and taking into account the overall
probability density distribution. The key information to carry out this work comes from the
new geological map of Etna volcano and the recent revision of the catalogue of the
historical eruptions of Etna (Branca et al., 2004a; 2004b; Branca and Del Carlo, 2004,
2005).
Volcanics erupted during the past 15 ka cover about the 85% of the volcano edifice.
Geological mapping of each recognized lava flow, belonging to a single eruptive event,
was performed. The stratigraphic relationship between each lava flow and the Holocene
tephrostratigraphic marker beds (Coltelli et al., 2000) allows to define the chronological
evolution of the eruptive activity in this time span. This methodological approach
permitted the detailed reconstruction of the volcanic history of the past 4 ka when eruptive
activity has strongly increased in both explosive and effusive phenomena.
Tephrostratigraphic and geological data have evidenced that he number of the eruptions
has increased fourfold in the last 4 ka in comparison to that occurred in the 10 ka before
(Del Carlo et al., 2004; Branca et al., 2004). In particular, about 100 flank lava-flow
eruptions for millennium occurred in the last 4 ka (Branca et al., 2004). Data of the historic
eruptions analysis is in agreement with this reconstruction; in fact 54 flank eruptions
occurred in the period 1670-2003 (Branca and Del Carlo, 2005), confirming that the high
eruption rate period, started 4 ka ago, is still ongoing.
The vent zoning and the reconstruction of the main features of the past Etna’s lava flow
eruptions, are very time and personnel consuming works. Consequently we propose to start
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Project V3 – Lava
with an application of the method to the last four centuries including corrective factors to
the less frequent eruption, in particular which occurred on the lower slopes, as derived
from the qualitative analysis of the periods 1599 - 0 AD and 0 AD - 2 ka BC data, that
cover the most representative period for the Etna long term eruptive behaviour (Coltelli et
al., 2000; Branca et al. 2004).
WP 3.4 Probabilistic lava flow simulations for long-term volcanic hazard assessment
WP 3.5 Probabilistic lava flow simulations for short-term volcanic hazard assessment
WP 3.6 Statistic analysis of the simulation results and implementation of the hazard map
The effort to obtain a probabilistic lava flow hazard map of Etna will follow the way traced
by a pioneer work of Wadge et al. (1994). The proposed work consists of:
1. A multivariate statistical analysis of the 1600 to present (including corrective factors
extracted by the last 4 ka record) eruptions to provide the likelihood of a lava vent at
every (x,y) position on Etna, the likelihood that vent will produce a specific type of
lava flow.
2. Random vent location by resampling of the vent density surface (Monte Carlo method),
assignment of the most probable flow type, and generation of the required vent
number.
3. Parameterization of lava flow: creation of a library of parameter settings,
corresponding to reasonable fits for each of the eruption used, by a series of trials using
the numerical simulations to match the observed spatial distribution of lava.
4. Simulation of the new eruptions by adopting the parameter settings that best simulate
the nearest historical lava flows.
5. Evaluation of the probability at any given point to be inundated by lava flows as the
ratio between the number of times that point was overridden by lava and the total
number of simulations.
Team 01B – Fabrizio Ferrucci
WP 5.1 Hot-spot detection in near real-time
WP 5.3 Effusion rates from thermal infrared satellite imagery
Having assigned the lava rheology and the model terrain, the effusion rate (m3/s) is the
main controlling factor of behaviour, travelled distance and final dimensions of flows: the
control or prediction of volumes, conversely, heavily relies upon vesicularity or porosity. It
has been shown that rapidly varying effusion rates during eruptions - heavily influencing
lava spreading, especially when peak effusion rates are high (over 10-15 m3/s) - can be
efficiently dealt with by high repetition rate, more than by high resolution thermal remote
sensed analysis. This held true for radiometers AVHRR (in spite of the dynamic range of
channels unsuited to volcano observation) and MODIS, and was recently demonstrated to
hold true also for SEVIRI, onboard the geosynchronous platform MSG2.
In LAVA, effusion rates will be estimated using high-temporal/high-spectral/low-spatial
resolution observation allowed by multispectral payload SEVIRI, whose 15-minute refresh
capacity is ideally fitting the needs for the near-real-time prediction of lava flows, based on
straightforward modelling.
Scientific and technological goals for the proposed activity in LAVA, are:
• demonstration of the MSG-SEVIRI data processing technologies
• broadened use of physical parameters (lava effusion rate or radiant flux) to define
volcanic threat scales, avoiding semi-quantitative information with loose geographic
ties.
• definition of data formats, scales and information content (radiant flux density, radiant
flux or effusion rate) suited to act as input to straightforward modeling of lava flow
emplacement.
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Data are provided with full acquisition, pre-processing, processing, post-processing and
distribution capabilities by means of Facility currently located at the Pole of Vibo Valentia
of the University of Calabria. The input products are the MSG-SEVIRI, 11-channel data
(Visible to Thermal IR, excepting panchromatic), physical parameters for computing
radiant fluxes and effusion rates, petro-physical parameters for the computation of effusion
rates. These data must be provided by the Project Management with suitable advance
before start of operation. The MSG-SEVIRI pixel size over Mt. Etna is ca. 15 sq.km in the
selected observation channels. Pixel footprints are assumed to be constant. The refresh rate
is 15 minutes. Five channels (Visible to TIR, depending on night- or day-time acquisition)
are used for cloud mapping and masking, where appropriate. Three channels (MIR to TIR)
are used for hot-spot detection. Four channels (SWIR to TIR) are accounted for in threeendmember radiant flux (watt), and subsequent effusion rate (m3/s) computation by DualBand or Three-Band methods. The threshold for Hot-Spot detection will be fixed to 1
W/[m2 sr µm] for MIR radiance. For Radiant flux computation, radiance should exceed the
background by at least 1 W/[m2 sr µm] in at least two channels (SWIR-to-TIR). Road tests
have shown that the equation system is solved when radiant flux is ca. 109 or more. The
output products will consist in layers of hot-spots (*SHP, *SHX, *DBF files) detected in
the MIR-TIR channels according to above, with associated attributes table containing, for
each hot-spot: coordinates (MSG pixel, radiant flux (Watts), effusion rate (m3/s). Effusion
rates will be provided for “bulk” lavas, with null porosity/vescicularity. An IDL routine –
running in ENVI™ environment – will be developed for the global monitoring of volcanic
radiant flux and effusion rate (where appropriate) at high-spectral and high-temporal
resolutions. Text file report including: acquisition date and time of satellite data, number of
hot-spots detected, total radiant flux, total effusion rates. Under the direct control of the
Project Management, observations will be run by the Facility on a six-month time span –
or on two or more smaller time span legs – for a typical figure of 18’000 processed images.
The acquisition/ processing/post-processing/delivery policy includes the real-time
transmission of the above “Output products” to the Project Management, upon conclusion
of each processing day (stack of 96 “Output products” every 24 hours). During the project,
operations will be triggerable at any time with a one-week advance notice and stoppable at
any time with a one-day advance notice. A one-week demonstration of emergency
operation – with delivery upon conclusion of each acquisition and processing cycle (15minute refresh) – will be performed during the final 6 months of the project, with advance
notice by the Project Management (larger or equal to 24 hours). The communications
between the Project Management and the Facility will be Internet-based. Having account
for the small size of vector/text output products (a few kilobytes at most), the possibility of
wireless dispatch of results over the telephone network will be demonstrated, aimed to
overcome delivery delays due to physical network failure in case of major events.
Team 01C – Marco Neri
WP 4.2 Medium term probability map for the opening of eruptive fractures
The aim of this team is the definition of the probability of the opening of eruptive
fractures, in the short to mid term in geological point view (from decades to centuries), in
function of data derived from ground surveys and satellite observation systems. Central
stratovolcanoes like Mount Etna are characterized by summit and flank eruptions. Summit
eruptions are the consequence of the ascent of magma from a central reservoir through the
summit conduit. Flank eruptions are commonly characterized by multiple aligned vents
that radiate from the summit of the volcano. Most of the observed flank eruptions at Etna
originate from the summit conduit: here magma rises, often feeding summit eruptions, and
subsequently propagates laterally and downslope, feeding radial fissures. A few flank
eruptions, however, are triggered by intrusions that are not fed through the summit conduit,
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Project V3 – Lava
but they are possibly directly fed by the reservoir beneath the volcano and are here named
“eccentric” eruptions. A complete revision of the location and dynamics of opening of all
recent eruptive vents, united with a study of the statistical distribution of all known
eruptive and dry fractures, faults and dikes exposed in the Valle del Bove, will permit to
construct a map of the probability of new vents opening in a given location. This study will
consist of two main phases: the first will be dedicated to the acquisition of field data,
which will be compared to data from the published literature. This phase will include:
a) Georeferenced mapping of outcropping and buried eruptive fractures of the past
~1000 years. Where possible, the sense of propagation of the eruptive fractures will
be determined, along with all volcanological, structural and geochemical
parameters useful for a definition of the character of each analyzed fissure system.
b) Georeferenced mapping of the dikes cropping out in the Valle del Bove, most
ranging in age from ~100 ka to present, and with particular attention to those dikes
that can be attributed to the Ellittico volcano. This is in fact a volcanic edifice
whose feeder system strongly resembles that of the presently active volcano, and its
study may furnish important information concerning the internal structure of the
present edifice, as well as the modalities of magma transfer from the central conduit
toward the periphery.
c) Georeferenced mapping of the main tectonic structures that can (1) be potentially
used as pathways for intruding magma and (2) influence the superficial stress field
of the volcano. It is in fact known, that some tectonic structures can be intersected
by the propagation of a magmatic dike, facilitating its migration toward the surface
(such as in 1928, when the distal portion of the intrusion followed the fault planes
outcropping at the Ripe della Naca). In other cases, the movement of the flank can
induce the opening of fractures in the summit area, which, if they intersect the
central conduit, determine the draining of magma in a mechanism described as
“passive” in the literature, i.e., not determined simply by magmatic overpressure
but rather by an external mechanical factor (such as the 2004-2005 eruption).
The second phase will be dedicated to the organization of the assembled data, for
comparison with data available from other disciplines, and to their elaboration, aiming at
the construction of the final map showing the probability of opening of eruptive fractrues.
In particular, this second phase will consist of:
a) Comparison of field and satellite data (in particolar InSAR), to evacuate the
extent of volcano-tectonic structures and variations in the related deformation in
time.
b) Creation of a map synthetizing the density of eruptive fracturation, and
comparison with other typologies of data.
c) Construction of an interpretative model on the movement of magma within the
volcanic edifice.
d) Application of the model for the construction of a probability map for the
opening of eruptive fractures.
Team 01D - Harry Pinkerton
WP 2.1 Physical and chemical parameterization of flow behaviour
WP 2.2 Development of thermal and fluid-dynamical models of lava flows
This proposal is submitted in parallel with another proposal to NERC in the UK and is
designed to provide additional support for work on Etna lava flows. The two problems we
wish to address in this proposal complement the work of others on this project, and they
are designed to provide additional data for improved flow modelling.
1. Lava rheological properties on eruption and changes downflow:
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Rheological properties used in lava flow models are generally based on
measurements on aphyric, avesicular melts with first-order approximations for the
growth and consequent effects of crystals. However, most lavas are both crystalline
and vesicular, and they contain variable amounts of volatiles, depending on the preeruptive volatile content, ascent rate and residence time of magma in the volcano,
together with patterns of degassing at the vent and from the flow itself. To ensure
that appropriate rheological properties are used in flow models, in situ rheological
measurements along the flow are required. These should then be used to validate
methods of calculating bulk rheological properties from melt chemistry, volatile
content, temperature, crystallinity and vesicularity. It is also important to determine
the critical crystallinity beyond which magma can no longer flow. This parameter is
vital for rheological calculations, but has yet to be robustly measured for any lava.
The relative effects of cooling and degassing-induced undercooling on rheological
changes of lava during future eruptions of Etna will be investigated using a
combination of direct rheological and thermal measurements, and volatile loss
studies of lava at different distances from the vent. This will be used to suggest how
the current flow model may be modified.
2. Complications arising during the development of flow fields:
While existing lava flow models effectively model the emplacement of simple lava
flows, lavas that erupt for more than a few days on Etna have the potential to
develop lava tubes and ephemeral vents. The resulting tube-fed lava generally
travels significantly further than it would if it had continued to cool in a fully
developed channel. Consequently, the most hazardous eruptions are also the most
difficult to model realistically because critical processes such as flow inflation,
ephemeral vent formation and the important transition from channelled flows to
tube-fed flows cannot currently be simulated. An evaluation of the factors
controlling the formation of lava tubes, ephemeral vents and other non-linear
changes in the flow regime of mature lava flow fields will be undertaken during
future effusive eruptions of Etna. Our preliminary analysis suggest that significant
changes in flow behaviour take place as a consequence of changes in vent effusion
rate, and that there is potential for quantification of these processes for
incorporation into flow models.
Team 01E – Danilo Reitano
WP 1.1 Development of internal and public Web portal
WP 4.1 Database in GIS architecture
Multidisciplinary data analysis can help researchers and technologists to evaluate the
correct hazard during volcanic and/or seismic events. New software solutions and available
data processing can perform useful relationship between related patterns. Our goal is the
design and the development of a Web-GIS base infrastructure able to disseminate different
kind of data, when requested. A user-friendly web interface will be realized, able to
guarantee also different access levels and data representations. The web infrastructure, so
designed, will be available to the project members and could be useful to present results
outside for scientific requests. Moreover, inside COMETA project (PON 2006,
www.consorzio-cometa.it) one of the main aims is the capability to use massive calculation
and very large amount of storage space. So the design of plant regarding database, storage,
Web/GIS interface is well included inside the project. Also simulations of lava flow paths
will be verified inside the GRID statement.
The work, carried out in co-operation with Project V4-Flank, will be divided into 5
different steps:
1. Design and development of the complete database infrastructure.
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2. Implementation of an inventory with data and metadata coming from different research
fields.
3. Design of the necessary layers and custom software that processes data and presents
them into a GIS interface.
4. Realization of a Storage Area Network to guarantee redundancy and robustness.
5. Tests.
Team 01F – Alexis Herault
WP 2.6 Development of numerical models for lava flow simulations
WP 5.4 Lava flow paths forecasting during an eruption
During the first phase of the project, we will aim at optimizing the MAGFLOW cellular
automata (CA) model (Eulerian approach) for lava flows developed by TecnoLab of
INGV-Catania Section. To furnish a more detailed physical description of emplacement
processes, two approach will be followed. In a first step, the structure of MAGFLOW
model will be modified. In particular, it is possible to introduce a vertical thermal structure
in the flow. To this aim two layers are considered: a lower layer, where the temperature is
homogeneous and an upper layer across which heat is transferred by conduction. At free
surface of the flow, we have heat radiation to the atmosphere. The upper layer is taken to
coincide with the plug, defined as the region where no shear deformation takes place in a
Bingham flow. The cooling mechanism will be controlled by the increase of yield stress,
which produces a thicker plug and makes the heat loss slower. As result of heat loss into
the atmosphere, a crust, defined as the layer which is above the isothermal surface at the
solidus temperature, is gradually formed on the upper surface of the flow. We assume that
a lava tube is formed when such a crust is sufficiently thick to resist the drag the
underlying flow and sustain itself under its own weight. In a second step, a more
sophisticated numerical model, based on Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH)
approach will be integrated in the MAGFLOW. By this model we will able to solve the
equations of motion of a compressible fluid with a Lagrangian approach. Smoothedparticle hydrodynamics (SPH) is a Lagrangian method for modeling heat and mass flows.
Due to its mesh-free nature and the handling of boundaries using SPH nodes, this method
can handle complex splashing and fragmenting free surface flows and the motion of
multiple solid equipment parts relatively easily. In traditional mesh-based methods used in
commercial fluid-flow packages, large mesh deformations are generated by the motion of
the equipment, leading to significant numerical problems. In addition, the tracking of the
free surface is diffusive and inaccurate for the resolutions used. For SPH, materials are
discretized into particles that can move subject to equations of motion arising from the
governing partial differential equations. The particles are moving interpolation points that
carry with them (convect) physical properties and state information, such as the mass of
the fluid that the particle represents, its temperature, momentum, enthalpy, density, and
other properties. The inter-particle forces are calculated by smoothing the information from
nearby particles in a way that ensures that the resultant particle motion is consistent with
the motion of a corresponding real fluid, as determined by the governing equation (e.g., the
Navier-Stokes equations). So, particle-based modelling methods have specific advantages
over traditional grid or mesh-based continuum methods for geophysical problems. These
include highly accurate and non-diffusive prediction of complex free-surface behaviour
including wave motion, fragmentation and splashing; accurate and automatic convection of
material; and the straightforward inclusion of multiscale multi-physics. Of course, the
development of new thermal model that permit a more accurate description of the fluid
state will permit us to model the formation of the crust and, consequently, the formation of
the lava tube.
213
Team 01G – Annamaria Vicari
WP 2.3 Development of techniques for hot-spot detection
WP 2.4 Development of techniques for lava effusion rate measurements
In order to perform forecasting simulations of lava flow invasion area in near real time we
will use the MAGFLOW model to predict the evolution of the phenomena during the
ongoing eruptions. By MAGFLOW model, we will be able to estimate the areas exposed to
inundations of lava flows during different kind of eruptions. The application of this fastrunning code will allow multiple run changing the initial and boundary conditions of the
system (i.e.: the vent position, the flux-rate, the rheological properties, etc.). MAGFLOW
permit us, also, to simulate the behavior of a lava flow in presence of barriers. Of course,
the model requires some necessary input data, as for example the effusion rate. This last
parameter is the principal factor controlling final flow dimensions. MAGFLOW model can
take into account the way in which effusion rate changes during an eruption and how this
influences the spread of lava as a function of time. Indeed, lava effusion rates can vary by
orders of magnitude over a matter of hours, and are difficult to determine in-situ. We want
to develop an automatic system that uses near-real-time thermal infrared satellite data
acquired by MODIS, AVHRR and SEVIRI sensors (low spatial/high temporal resolution),
to drive numerical simulations of lava flow paths.
In this context, the Team 01-g will contribute to the project mainly developing and
validating the techniques for real-time detection of hot spots related to volcanic eruptions
and estimation of effusion rate. In particular, in a first step, we plan to improve the multiapproach method (that integrates AVHRR and MODIS data) with information coming
from other sensors, such as Meteosat Second Generation geostationary satellite (MSG).
MSG carries the only remote sensing sensor (SEVIRI) which allows for a 15-minute
observation of Europe, allowing for high temporal resolution analysis and monitoring of
active lava flows. To this aim a preliminary study will be conducted to confirm the
applicability of the SEVIRI sensor as an instrument suitable to be employed in an
operational system of early hot spot detection. For this purpose, an automatic system of hot
spot detection, based on the high temporal frequency of the images acquisition, will be
developed and tested on Etna volcano. The validation of the results will comprise the
promptness of the detections (compared with the common ground based warnings), the
errors of the geo-location and the accuracy of the sizes estimate of the hotspots. The
assessment of the performances of the system will be obtained mainly comparing its results
with those obtainable from higher resolution sun-synchronous sensors data (MODIS and
AVHRR). In a second step, we plan to improve the approach for the estimation of the
effusion rate. Infact, actually, the classic dual-band three method techniques, computing
the heat flux on the base of Pieri and Baloga (1986) approach, was implemented. By this
technique, an estimate of the temperatures of an active lava flow is furnished. In general,
these temperatures estimated are influenced by meteorological conditions, daytime solar
radiation, thermal inertia, elevation and many other parameters. Therefore, it is necessary
to implement robust algorithms able to reduce these external influences for obtaining
accurate effusion rate estimations.
WP 3.4 Probabilistic lava flow simulations for long-term volcanic hazard assessment
WP 3.5 Probabilistic lava flow simulations for short-term volcanic hazard assessment
MAGFLOW models represent the central part of an extensive methodology for the hazard
assessment at Mt. Etna. Hazard assessment can be performed by simulating a number of
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Project V3 – Lava
lava flows from a set of initial data (a record of past eruptions) and with different
parameters of the volcanic system in a meaningful range of variation. A preliminary
zonation is necessary for identifying possible emission regions with the highest probability
of opening. After that, a set of reference values for the parameters of the simulation model
based on the knowledge of past eruptions is estimated. So, MAGFLOW is used to
determine for each emission region the area that can be invaded by lava flows originated
from sample points located in that region. Last step is to assign the probability of lava
invasions to interested region, calculated on the basis of the simulated lava flows.
Contribute by the RU to the general Project products 1st year
1st half-year
1. Preliminary database of the features of the lava flow eruptions occurred in the last 4
century. (Team 01A)
2. Structural analysis of eruptive fissures. (Team 01C)
3. Provide preliminary rheological data for flow modelling. (Team 01D)
4. Development of physical –mathematical model to simulate lava flow path. (Team
01F)
5. Development of hot-spot detection algorithm. (Team 01G)
6. Development of effusion rate algorithm. (Team 01G)
7. Database structure, study of different WEB/GIS systems. (Team 01E)
2nd half-year
8. Final database of the features of the lava flow eruptions occurred in the last 4
century. (Team 01A)
9. Library of physical parameter of the lava flow eruptions studied. (Team01A)
10. Structural analysis of the dikes cropping out in Valle del Bove. (Team 01C)
11. Structural analysis of the fault potentially involved in the eruptive activity. (Team
01C)
12. Construction of the probability map for the opening of eruptive fractures. (Team
01C)
13. Provide a report on the factors affecting the formation of tubes and ephemeral vents
on Etna. (Team 01D)
14. Development of a new thermal model to permit the formation of the crust and,
consequently, of lava tubes. (Team 01F)
15. Development of a new thermal model to permit the formation of lava tubes. (Team
01F)
16. Implementation of hot-spot detection algorithm. (Team 01G, Team01B)
17. Implementation of effusion rate algorithm. (Team 01G, Team01B)
18. Implementation of an IDL routine for the global monitoring of volcanic radiant flux
and effusion rate ((Team 01G, Team 01B).
19. Site realization. (Team 01E)
20. Database integration. (Team 01E)
Contribute by the RU to the general Project products 2nd year
1st half-year
1. Validation of the lava flow simulations by adopting the parameter settings that best
simulate the nearest historical lava flows. (Team 01A)
215
2. Construction of maps synthetizing the assembled data and their comparison with
available satellite geodetic data. (Team 01C)
3. Provide robust rheological data for Etna lavas. (Team 01D)
4. Implementation of a near-real-time system that is able to produce essential
information (i.e. effusion rate, hot spot detection) as input data of MAGFLOW.
(Team 01G)
5. Implementation of physical –mathematical model to simulate lava flow path.
(Team 01F)
6. Data representations, web interfaces, GIS. (Team 01E)
2st half-year
7. Detailed assessment of the conditions under which the flow regime changes from
the emplacement of a single channel-fed lava flow to more complex flow regimes.
(Team 01D)
8. Structural analysis of the fault potentially involved in the eruptive activity. (Team
01C)
9. Implementation of the thermal model to permit the formation of the crust (Team
01F).
10. Implementation of a near-real-time system that is able to produce near-real-time
scenario forecast. (Team 01G)
11. Compiling of a probabilistic hazard maps of lava flow. (Team 01A)
12. Development of procedures to transfer the results to DPC. (RU-01)
13. Text file report including: acquisition date and time of satellite data, number of hotspots detected, total radiant flux, total effusion rates (Team 01B).
14. Test sites. (Team 01E)
15. Final documentations; manuals. (Team 01E)
Detailed Financial Request (in Euro) for each Team
First Phase
Team
Spese
personal
e
Spese
missioni
7000
7000
Coord.
TM-01A
TM-01B
TM-01C
TM-01D
TM-01E
TM-01F
TM-01G
Total
Costi
amminist
rativi
1000
Spese
servizi
5000
10000
1000
8000
4000
2000
6000
6000
32000
Spese per
studi e
ricerche
1000
20000
20000
64000
Materiale
durevole e
consumo
Spese
indirette
6000
2000
2000
1800
2000
5200
3000
3000
21000
1200
3000
800
1000
1000
11000
Totale
10000
20000
10000
8000
13000
8000
30000
30000
129000
Second Phase
Team
Coord.
TM-01A
TM-01B
TM-01C
TM-01D
216
Spese
personal
e
Spese
missioni
7000
7000
4000
Costi
amminist
rativi
1000
Spese per
studi e
ricerche
5000
10000
1000
8000
Spese
servizi
Materiale
durevole e
consumo
Spese
indirette
6000
2000
2000
1800
2000
1200
3000
Totale
10000
20000
10000
8000
13000
Project V3 – Lava
TM-01E
TM-01F
TM-01G
Total
6000
6000
30000
1000
8000
20000
20000
72000
3000
3000
15800
1000
1000
10200
8000
30000
30000
129000
Financial Request (in Euro) for the whole RU
First Phase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
000000
32000
1000
64000
21000
11000
Totale
129000
Second Phase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
30000
0,00
1000
72000
0,00
0,00
15800
0,00
10200
0,00
Totale
129000
Total
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
62000
2000
0,00
217
136000
0,00
0,00
36800
0,00
21200
0,00
Totale
258000
Curriculum of the Scientific Responsible
Ciro Del Negro - Senior researcher. Head of the Gravity and Magnetism Division.
Scientific interests: Multidisciplinary modelling of mass dynamic processes occurring at
different time scales via integrated analysis and joint inversion of gravimetric, magnetic
and deformation data. Numerical modelling of interactions between eruptions and
earthquakes in heterogeneous media; Numerical simulations of the spatial and temporal
evolution of eruptive phenomena for hazard assessment. Publications: over 35 in
International Journals and editor of the AGU book titled "Etna Volcano Laboratory".
Most relevant publications of RU
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
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Ball M., Pinkerton H. and Harris A., (2008) Surface cooling, advection and the
development of different surface textures on active lavas on Kilauea, Hawai'i J
Volcanol Geotherm Res (in press)
Behncke, B. Neri M. and Nagay, A. (2005), Lava flow hazard at Mount Etna (Italy):
New data from a GIS-based study, in Manga, M., and Ventura, G., eds., Kinematics
and dynamics of lava flows: Geol. Soc. Am. Spec. Pap. 396, 187-205, doi:
10.1130/2005.2396(13).
Branca S., Coltelli M., Groppelli G. (2004) Geological evolution of Etna volcano. In:
“Etna Volcano Laboratory” Bonaccorso, Calvari, Coltelli, Del Negro, Falsaperla
(Eds), AGU (Geophysical monograph series) 143, pp 49-63.
Calvari S., M. Coltelli, M. Neri, M. Pompilio, and V. Scribano (1994), The 1991-1993
Etna eruption: chronology and lava flow-field evolution, acta vulcanologica, 4, 1-14.
Del Carlo P., Vezzoli L., Coltelli M., (2004). Last 100 ka Tephrostratigraphic Record
of Mount Etna, AGU Geophysical Monograph 143 "Mt. Etna Volcano Laboratory",
pp. 77-89
Del Negro, C., Fortuna, L., Vicari, A., (2004). Modelling lava flows by Cellular
Nonlinear Networks (CNN): preliminary results. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics,
11: 1–9.
Del Negro, C., Fortuna, L., Herault, A., Vicari, A. (2007). Simulations of the 2004
lava flow at Etna volcano by the MAGFLOW Cellular Automata model, Bull.
Volcanol., DOI 10.1007/s00445-007-0168-8.
Herault, A., Vicari, A., Ciraudo, A., and Del Negro, C. (2007). Forecasting Lava Flow
Hazard During the 2006 Etna Eruption: Using the Magflow Cellular Automata Model,
Computer & Geosciences (in press).
Hirn B.R., Di Bartola C., Laneve G., Cadau E. and F. Ferrucci (2008). SEVIRI
onboard Meteosat Second Generation, and the Quantitative Monitoring of Effusive
Volcanoes in Europe and Africa. IEEE – IGARSS, Boston (USA), July 2008
(submitted).
Project V3 – Lava
10. Vicari, A., Currenti, G., Del Negro, C., Fortuna, L., Herault, A., Napoli, R., Rizzo, A.,
(2005). Simulations of lava flows at Mt Etna using paradigms of parallel computing.
Nonlinear Phenomena in Complex Systems, 8:1, 84 – 88.
11. Vicari, A., Herault, A., Del Negro, C., Coltelli, M., Marsella, M., Proietti, C. (2007).
Modelling of the 2001 Lava Flow at Etna Volcano by a Cellular Automata Approach,
Environmental Modelling & Software, 22, 1465-1471.
12. Vicari, A., Ciraudo, A., Del Negro, C., Fortuna, L. (2007). Lava flow simulations
using effusion rates from thermal infrared satellite imagery during the 2006 Etna
eruption, Natural Hazard, (in press).
219
Project V3 - LAVA
RU V3/02
Scientific Responsible: Stefano Gresta, Full Professor, Università di Catania,
Dipartimento di Scienze Geologiche, Corso Italia 57, 95129 Catania, email:
[email protected], tel. 0957195709; cell: 3336170520.
RU Composition:
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Stefano Gresta
Full Professor
Univ. Catania
Man/Months 1st
phase
6
Man/Months 1st
phase
Renato Cristofolini
Full Professor
Univ. Catania
3
Distefano Giovanni
Researcher
Univ. Catania
3
Carmelo Ferlito
Researcher
Univ. Catania
3
Sebastiano Imposa
Researcher
Univ. Catania
3
Marco Viccaro
Researcher
Univ. Catania
3
Andrea Cannata
PhD student
Univ. Catania
5
Warner Marzocchi
Director of Res.
INGV-Roma
1
Jacopo Selva
Researcher
INGV-BO
1
Laura Sandri
Researcher
INGV-BO
4*
Luigi Passarelli
PhD student
INGV-BO
2
Rocco Favara
Director of Res.
INGV-PA
1
Antonio Paonita
Senior Researcher
INGV-PA
1
Marco Liuzzo
Technologist
INGV-PA
1
Alparone Salvatore°
Technologist
INGV-CT
1
Andronico Daniele°
Researcher
INGV-CT
1
Bonforte Alessandro°
Researcher
INGV-CT
0
Caltabiano Tommaso° Senior Technologist INGV-CT
1
Cocina Ornella°
Researcher
INGV-CT
1
Corsaro Rosanna°
Researcher
INGV-CT
1
Gambino Salvatore°
Technologist
INGV-CT
0
Rosalba Napoli°
Researcher
INGV-CT
0
Greco Filippo°
Technologist
INGV-CT
0
Palano Mimmo°
Researcher
INGV-CT
0
Participants
Position
Institution
Man/Months 2nd
phase
6
Man/Months 2nd
phase
3
3
3
3
3
5
1
4
4*
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
°Expert by INGV-Catania participating to the retrospective data analysis and weighted
expert opinions for application of BET. They are, in the order experts in: seismo-volcanic
events, volcanology, GPS, SO2 by plume, tectonic earthquakes, petrology, tilt,
electromagnetic signals, gravimetry, InSAR.
TASK 4 - Vent Opening Probability Map
A reliable lava flow hazard assessment of Etna volcano may require a probabilistic
estimation of the vent location. The goal of this RU is to provide a probabilistic assessment
of vent location mainly based on seismological (earthquakes and tremor) and
volcanological data, integrated with other geophysical and geochemical data, in co220
Project V3 – Lava
operation with expert researchers by INGV (Roma, Bologna, Catania and Palermo). We
tackle this problem through a Bayesian statistical procedure that accounts for any kind of
available information in a rationale and structured manner, providing a formal estimation
of uncertainties. We deal with both long-term and short-term hazard assessment. For the
long-term, we start from a prior model that considers the present tectonic and volcanic
structure of the Etna volcano; in a second step we include through a likelihood distribution
the information about past vent and fracture locations, considering their variation through
time, and their relationship with the structural setting of the volcano; the final product of
such analyses consists of a posteriori probability map for next vent opening. The shortterm vent opening hazard assessment will be estimated during an unrest phase and it
includes geophysical, geochemical and volcanological parameters collect at Mount Etna
during 1996-2004. This RU will perform a retrospective analysis in order to define the
probability of opening eruptive vent(s) for some of the eruptions occurred in the above
time span. In this case, the basic map will updated accounting for the location, intensity
and parameters of earthquakes, the location and features of tremor, the evolution of erupted
magmas, the activity of structural trends. Such “parameters” are assumed to give insights
about the “future” vent of the lava flow. First, we will analize, and then integrate results by
the disciplines reported above, with expert opinions coming from other disciplines (by
INGV Catania and Palermo), in a fully probabilistic scheme for hazard assessment, named
BET. In a nutshell, BET is a probabilistic model to calculate and to visualize the
probability of any possible volcano-related event, by merging all of the available
information, such as theoretical models, a priori beliefs, expert opinions, monitoring
observations.
1st half-year
1. Basic hazard map
2. Comparison of some hazard maps considering different time spans of the “life” of the
volcano.
2nd half-year
3. First dynamic maps (two or three past eruptive scenarios)
1st half-year
1. Other dynamic maps (further past eruptive scenarios)
2. Test on the different weights for parameters and expert opinions.
2nd half-year
3. Validation (if any) of the BET at Etna volcano.
221
Financial Request (in Euro)
First Phase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
10000
0,00
23000
0,00
2000
0,00
10000
0,00
5000
0,00
Totale
0,00
450000
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Second Phase
Categoria di spesa
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
10000
0,00
23000
0,00
2000
0,00
10000
0,00
0,00
0,00
5000
45
50000
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
Totale
Total
Categoria di spesa
0,00
20000
0,00
46000
0,00
222
Project V3 – Lava
4000
0,00
20000
0,00
Totale
0,00
10000
96,00
10000000
0,00
• An amount of 20000 euros per year will support the fees (points 2, 5 and 6) of the people
by INGV participating to the RU
Stefano Gresta: born in Senigallia (Italy) on 09.19.1956.
1980: Graduate in Physics Sciences at University of Bologna.
1982 - 1984: researcher at Istituto Internazionale di Vulcanologia (CNR - Catania).
1984 - 1987: researcher at University of Catania.
1987 - 2006: Associate Professor of Seismology at University of Catania.
Since 2006: Full Professor of Seismology at University of Catania.
Since 1987: responsible for several research projects by MURST-MIUR, CNR, INGVDPC. His research activity is carried out in the fields of volcano physics, seismology and
tectonophysics.
5 most relevant publications of RU
Gresta S., Ripepe M., Marchetti E., D'Amico S., Coltelli M., Harris A.J.L. and Privitera E.,
2004. Seismoacoustic measurements during the July-August 2001 eruption at Mt. Etna
volcano, Italy. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 137, 219-230.
Monaco C., Catalano S., Cocina O., De Guidi G., Ferlito C., Gresta S., Musumeci C. and
Tortorici L., 2005. Tectonic control on the eruptive dynamics at Mt. Etna volcano
(eastern Sicily) during the 2001 and 2002-2003 eruptions. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res.,
144, 211-233.
Gresta S., Ghisetti F., Privitera E. and Bonanno A., 2005. Coupling of eruptions and
earthquakes at Mt Etna (Sicily, Italy): a case study from the 1981 and 2001 events.
Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, doi:10.1029/2004GL021479.
Alparone S., Cannata A. and Gresta S., 2007. Time variation of spectral and wavefield
features of volcanic tremor at Mt. Etna (January-June 1999). J. Volcanol. Geotherm.
Res., 161, 318-332.
Palano M., Puglisi G. and Gresta S., 2008. Ground deformation patterns at Mt. Etna from
1993 to 2000 from joint use of InSAR and GPS techniques. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res.,
169, 99-120.
223
Project V3 - LAVA
RU V3/03
Scientific Responsible: Gino Mirocle Crisci, Full Professor, Department of Earth
Sciences, University of Calabria, Ponte Pietro Bucci, 87036 Arcavacata di Rende
(CS),email: [email protected], tel. +39.0984.496828, fax:+39.0984493601.
RU Composition:
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
CRISCI Gino Mirocle
Full Professor
UNICAL
Participants
Position
Institution
DI GREGORIO
Salvatore
RONGO Rocco
SPATARO William
D’AMBROSIO Donato
NERI Marco
BEHNCKE Boris
AVOLIO Maria Vittoria
LUPIANO Valeria
NICEFORO Giancarlo
Full Professor
UNICAL
Researcher
Researcher
Researcher
Researcher
Research Fellow
Research Fellow
Research Fellow
Collaborator
UNICAL
UNICAL
UNICAL
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
UNICAL
UNICAL
UNICAL
Man/Months 1st
phase
1
Man/Months 2nd
phase
1
Man/Months 1st
phase
1
Man/Months 2nd
phase
1
2
2
2
0
0
6
6
3
2
2
2
0
0
6
6
3
Task 3 - Lava Flow Invasion Hazard Map
Task 5 - Scenario Forecast and Hazard Mitigation
WP 5.5 Lava flow simulations including diversion barriers during an eruption
Objectives and Results
• Following the tasks already carried out in the previous INGV-DPC project, in order
to verify the goodness and reliability of the obtained maps, a validation technique
will be individuated and applied.
• Relative to a limited and well defined elevated urbanized area, several GIS oriented
applications will be implemented:
o Individuation of emission areas that can generate threatening lava flows for
a particular zone (e.g. inhabited zones, roads, hospitals, power plants, etc).
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Project V3 – Lava
o For real-time forecasting, once that an emission point(s) has been
individuated, the maximum invasion covered area can be immediately
obtained. Moreover, different degrees of invasion probabilities will permit
to individuate more critical areas.
1. GIS start-up implementation;
2. Definition of techniques for hazard map validation.
3. GIS Full implementation.
First Phase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
5000
0,00
8000
0,00
0,00
5000
0,00
2000
0,00
Totale
20000
Second Phase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
2) Spese per missionI
5000
0,00
8000
0,00
0,00
5000
0,00
2000
0,00
Totale
20000
225
Total
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
10000
0,00
16000
0,00
0,00
10000
0,00
4000
0,00
Totale
40000
Gino Mirocle Crisci Date of birth: December, 21st , 1949. Nationality: Italian
Languages: Italian, English.
Actual position: Full Professor in Petrology and Petrography at University of Calabria,
Department of Earth Sciences. Science Faculty Head of University of Calabria.
The research activity of the Scientific responsible is aimed both in geo-chemical and
petrographical studies of magmatic rocks and in applied studies that tackle punctual
problematics. The goal of the magmamatological studies has been the development of a
model to explain the presence of a broad compositional spectrum in recent emitted
magmas in the Central-South Thyrrenian Sea and Sicily channel area. The applicative part
can be synthesized in: 1) Studies on the application of Cellular Automata regarding the
Earth Sciences (lava flows). 2) Archeometric studies with geo-chemical and petrographic
investigation of archeological findings and of an analytical method for the determination of
the origin of archeological obsidians.
Most relevant publications of RU
D’Ambrosio, D., Rongo, R., Spataro, W., Avolio, M.V. and Lupiano, V., 2006. Lava
Invasion Susceptibility Hazard Mapping Through Cellular Automata. Lectures Notes in
Computer Sciences, 4173(S. El Yacoubi, B. Chopard, and S. Bandini (Eds.): ACRI
2006.): 452-461.
D’Ambrosio, D., Spataro, W., Di Gregorio, S., Crisci, G.M. and Rongo, R., 2005. Parallel
genetic Algorithms for calibrating Cellular Automata Models: Application to lava flows.
Il Nuovo Cimento, 28(C-2 Special issue on High Performance Computing): 115.127.
Crisci, G.M., DiGregorio, S., Rongo, R. and Spataro, W., 2004. The Simulation model
SCIARA: The 1991 and 2001 Lava Flows at Mount Etna. Journal of Volcanology and
Geothermal Research, 132(2-3): 253-267.
Barca, D., Crisci, G.M., DiGregorio, S., Rongo, R. and Spataro, W., 2004. Application of
the Cellular Automata Model SCIARA to the 2001 Mount Etna Crisis. In: S.C. A.
Bonaccorso, M.Coltelli, C. Del Negro, S. Falsaperla (Editor), Etna Volcano Laboratory.
American Geophysical Union,, Washington. D.C., pp. 343-356.
226
Project V3 – Lava
Crisci, G.M. et al., 2003. Revisiting the 1669 Etnean eruptive crisis using a cellular
automata model and implications for volcanic hazard in the Catania area. Journal of
Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 123(1-2): 211-230.
227
Project V3 - LAVA
RU V3/04
Scientific Responsible: Massimiliano Favalli, Senior Researcher, Istituto Nazionale di
Geofisica e Vulcanologia-Sezione di Pisa, Via della Faggiola, 32 - 56126 Pisa, email:
[email protected], tel: 050 8311946, fax: 050 8311942
RU Composition:
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
Man/Months
2nd phase
3
INGV-PI
Man/Months 1st
phase
1
Man/Months
2nd phase
1
INGV-PI
1
1
INGV-PI
University of
Hawaii
INGV-CT
INGV-PI
INGV-PI
6
0
6
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Massimiliano Favalli
Senior
Researcher
INGV-PI
Participants
Position
Institution
Maria Teresa
Pareschi
Francesco
Mazzarini
Simone Tarquini
Andrew JL Harris
Director of
Research
Researcher
Technologist
Associate
Professor
Researcher
Technologist
Fellow
Marco Neri
Ilaria Isola
Alessandro
Fornaciai
TASK 2 - Numerical Simulations and Satellite Techniques
WP: 2.5 Development of techniques for intra-event rapid DEM mapping. It is well know
that topographic features, including pre-existing channels and other lava morphologies,
modify lava flow path together with mass eruption rates and lava rheological properties.
Tecniques based on LiDAR data will be developed for intra-event rapid DEM mapping
minimizing errors at local and global scale. Reconstruction and estimation of errors on past
topographies and volumes will be performed. We will investigate the possibility to use the
same tecnique to evaluate erupted lava volumes from LiDAR frames collected at short
intervals, potentially allowing extimation of mass eruption rates.
TASK 3 - Lava Flow Invasion Hazard Map
WP: 3.4, 3.5, 3.6 – DOWNFLOW code accounts of the behavior of lava fields on Etna in
an very effective way: in a few minutes computational times it is possible to simulate
probabilistic areas exposed to lava invasion, with most exposed areas fitting very well the
in-filled effective ones. It is based on an evolution of the steepest descent path criterion,
which is applied thousands of times to a randomly perturbed topography to simulate the
real behavior of Etnean lava flow fields. We want to extend and refine the existing
simulation database by considering computational vent distribution with some tens of
meters resolution. This database can be used to produce, in short times, hazard maps as a
function of different vent opening probability distributions and lava flow lengths or
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Project V3 – Lava
effusion rates. The database can also be used to produce maps reporting, for each point, the
channelling/spreading index for a lava flow venting from that point (i.e. predictability of
the lava path) and maps reporting, for each point, the impact produced by a lava flow
venting from that point. All the above maps are valid as long as no significative
topographical changes occur.
1st half-year
1. Techniques for intra-event rapid DEM mapping based on LiDAR technologies .
2. Hazard maps by lava flow using DOWNFLOW .
2nd half-year
3. Maps indicating, at each point, the expected impact produced by a flow venting from
that point.
4. Lava flow catchment area and maps as in the previous points 3 for given target areas.
1st half-year
1. Error estimations on lava volumes and changing topographies in LiDAR.
2nd half-year
2. Maps indicating, at each point, the channelling/spreading index for a lava flow
venting from that point (i.e. predictability of the lava path).
3. Password protected web publishing of all produced data using Google Earth
freeware technology.
First Phase
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
1800
0,00
2200
0,00
10000
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
4000
0,00
2000
0,00
20000
0,
Totale
0,00
229
Second Phase
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
1800
0,00
2200
0,00
10000
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
4000
0,00
2000
0,00
0,00
20000
,00
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
3600
0,00
4400
0,00
20000
0,00
Totale
Total
Categoria di spesa
0,00
8000
0,00
4000
0,00
Totale
40000
0,
Massimiliano Favalli Date of birth: 1 June 1967
Nationality: Italian
Education: 2000: B.Sc. (full marks cum laude) in Physics, Universita’ degli Studi di Pisa,
Pisa (Italy). Thesis on Numerical study of mesoscale circulation and atmospheric
dispersion of a volcanic plume. The case of Mt. Etna.
Professional experience:
07/2005-present: associate researcher at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia,
Sezione di Pisa (INGV-PI).
07/2004-06/2005: researcher at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione
di Pisa (INGV-PI).
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Project V3 – Lava
08/2001-06/2004: researcher at Centro Studi di Geologia Strutturale e Dinamica
dell’Appennino (conveyed into Istituto di Geoscienze e Georisore since January 2002),
Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (Italy).
Research experience: numerical simulations on volcano-related phenomena: mesoscale
atmospheric circulation, atmospheric dispersion, debris flows, floods, lava flows, tsunamis.
Favalli M. and M.T. Pareschi, 2004, Digital elevation model reconstruction preserving
surface
morphological
structures,
J.
Geophys.
Res.,
109,
F04004,
doi:10.1029/2004JF000150.
Favalli M., M. T. Pareschi, A. Neri, I. Isola (2005), Forecasting lava flow paths by a
stochastic approach, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L03305, doi:10.1029/2004GL021718.
Favalli M., G.D. Chirico, P. Papale, M.T. Pareschi, M. Coltelli, N. Lucaya, and E. Boschi
(2006), Computer simulations of lava flow paths in the town of Goma, Nyiragongo
volcano, Democratic Republic of Congo, J. Geophys. Res., 111, B06202,
doi:10.1029/2004JB003527.
Harris A., M. Favalli, F. Mazzarini, M.T. Pareschi (2007). Best-fit results from application
of a thermo-rheological model for channelized lava flow to high spatial resolution
morphological data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L01301, doi: 10.1029/2006GL028126.
Mazzarini F., M. T. Pareschi, M. Favalli, I. Isola, S. Tarquini, E. Boschi (2005),
Morphology of basaltic lava channels during the Mt. Etna September 2004 eruption from
airborne
laser
altimeter
data,
Geophys.
Res.
Lett.,
32,
L04305,
doi:10.1029/2004GL021815.
231
Project V3 - LAVA
RU V3/05
Scientific Responsible: Fortuna Luigi, Full Professor, Dipartimento di Ingegneria
Elettrica, Elettronica e dei Sistemi, Facoltà di Ingegneria, Università di Catania, Viale A.
Doria 6, 95125 Catania, email: [email protected], tel: 095 738 2307, fax: 095 330793
RU Composition:
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Fortuna Luigi
Full Professor
University of Catania
Participants
Position
Institution
Frasca Mattia
Research
Fellow
Researcher
University of
Catania
University of
Catania
University of
Catania
University of
Catania
Caponnetto
Riccardo
Buscarino Arturo
Bucolo Maide
Research
Fellow
Researcher
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
Man/Months 2nd
phase
3
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
Man/Months 2nd
phase
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Task 2 - Numerical Simulations and Satellite Techniques
Modern graphics processing units (GPUs) contain hundreds of arithmetic units and can be
harnessed to provide tremendous acceleration for many numerically intensive scientific
applications. The increased flexibility of the most recent generation of GPU hardware
combined with high level GPU programming languages have unlocked this computational
power and made it much more accessible to computational scientists. The key to effective
utilization of GPUs for scientific computing is the design and implementation of efficient
data-parallel algorithms that can scale to hundreds of tightly coupled processing units.
Many particle modeling applications (as for example SPH model) are well suited to GPUs,
due to their extensive computational requirements, and because they lend themselves to
parallel processing implementations. The use of multiple GPUs can bring even more
computational power to bear on highly parallelizable computational problems. We propose
to apply this kind of data-parallel algorithm to the models developed by UR_DelNegro and
UR_Russo.
In order to perform forecasting simulations of lava flow invasion area in near real time
MAGFLOW model developed by UR_DelNegro will be used. The model needs of some
input such us a digital representation of the topography over which the lava is to be
emplaced, the location of the eruptive vent, knowledge of the relationships of viscosity and
yield strength with temperature, and an estimate of the lava effusion rate. The lava effusion
rate is critical point for lava flow simulations, because it is the principal factor controlling
final flow dimensions. It can be highly variable. It can vary by orders of magnitude over a
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Project V3 – Lava
matter of hours, and is difficult to determine in-situ. However, it is possible to estimate
lava effusion rates using thermal infrared satellite imagery obtained from low spatial/high
temporal resolution remote sensing data (e.g. MODIS, AVHRR). During the previous
DPC-INGV volcanological project a digital image processing tools that uses near-real-time
thermal infrared satellite data acquired by MODIS and AVHRR sensors has been
successfully experimented on Etna volcano. In this context, the Research Unit will
contribute to the project mainly developing and validating the techniques for real-time
detection of hot spots related to volcanic eruptions and estimation of effusion rate. In
particular, in a first step, we plan to improve the multi-approach method (that integrates
AVHRR and MODIS data) with information coming from other sensors, such as MSG. In
particular, MSG provides images every fifteen minutes and allows for high temporal
resolution analysis and monitoring of active lava flows. In a second step, we plan to
improve the approach for the estimation of the effusion rate. Infact, actually, the classic
dual-band three method techniques, computing the heat flux on the base of Pieri and
Baloga (1986) approach, was implemented. This method suffers of many limitation, due,
mainly, (i) to the strictly hypothesis with which the effusion rate is computed starting from
the heat flux obtained by satellite data, and (ii) to the atmospheric correction that must be
applied to the measured radiance of the satellite sensor to obtain the corrected radiances
used to compute the heat flux. Moreover, we have to take in mind that when the effusion
rate is estimated from the heat flux, many parameters are fixed a priori, as for example the
emissivity. Its contribution is not negligible: part of the radiation emitted by lavas is
absorbed, reflected and scattered by the atmosphere. If the emissivity is known, the surface
temperature can be retrieved from remotely-sensed spectral data. In this context, the
availability of a new thermal model developed by UR_Dragoni and UR_DelNegro, and
measurement of emissivity carried out by UR_Lombardo, will permit us to better introduce
the thermal structure of the pixel of the image. This is a necessary information to compute
the temperatures of active lava flow from the integrated temperature of the pixel. All the
satellite data will be furnished by UR_Tramutoli and UR_Lombardo.
The complexity in the development of data-parallel algorithm for GPU computation, the
necessity to validate the effusion rate algorithm and the full tool for satellite data, suggest
to involve in the project a new young researcher, to employ full time. For this reasons, we
propose to fund a contract for a young researcher. In this case an amount of money,
corresponding to a contract for a young researcher (19000 Euros for the contract of work,
5000 Euros for other expenses for each phase of the project), will be transferred to the
University of Catania.
1st half-year
1. Development of data-parallel algorithm for GPU computation
2. Development of algorithm for pre-processing of satellite data
2nd half-year
3. Development of algorithms for cloud mask detection.
4. Development of algorithms for hot spot detection.
1st half-year
1. Development of algorithm for effusion rate estimation
233
2. Implementation of automatic system to treat satellite data
2nd half-year
3. Implementation of a GPU cluster for lava flow simulation.
4. Integration of the algorithms developed into DPC interface.
First Phase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
3500
0,00
19000
0,00
0,00
1000
0,00
500
0,00
Totale
0,00
24000
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Second Phase
Categoria di spesa
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
3500
0,00
19000
0,00
0,00
1000
0,00
500
0,00
Totale
0,00
24000
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Total
Categoria di spesa
234
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
7000
0,00
Project V3 – Lava
38000
0,00
0,00
2000
0,00
1000
0,00
Totale
0,00
48000
Foruna Luigi - born in Siracuse on 27/05/1953. He is Full Professor of System Theory
since November 1994 at the University of Catania where he is Dean of the Engineering
Faculty, since November 2005 and is co-ordinator of the Ph.D. Course in Electronic and
Automatic Engineering. He is author of more than 350 scientific publications; among them
seven are books published by international editors: Bio-Inspired Emergent Control of
Locomotion Systems, (World Scientific, 2004), Soft- Computing (Springer 2001),
Nonlinear Non Integer Order Circuits and Systems (World Scientific 2001), Cellular
Neural Networks (Springer 1999) ,Neural Networks in Multidimensional Domains
(Springer 1998), Model Order Reduction in Electrical Engineering (Springer 1994), Robust
Control - An Introduction (Springer 1993). He is author of 10 industrial patents. He is in
charge for a series of contracts with public and private companies (exMURST, CNR,
ENEA, EURATOM, ERG Petroli, ASI, STMicroelectronics, etc). At present he is local coordinator of two EC projects: CLAWAR (Climbing & Walking Robots) and DICTAM. He
is IEEE Fellow, Chairman of the IEEE Committee on CNN an Array Processors and is also
Chairman of the IEEE Central and South Italy Italy CAS Chapter. His scientific interests
include: Robust Control, Nonlinear Science and Complexity, Chaos, Cellular Neural
Networks, Soft-Computing Strategies for Control. Robotics, Micro - Nanosensor and
Smart Devices for Control, Nano-Cellular Neural Networks Modelling. He is the
coordinator of the courses in Electronic Engineering. He is Fellow of the IEEE CAS
Society, IEEE
CASChairman of the CNN Technical
Committee, IEEE CAS
Distinguishing Lectures 2001-2002, IEEE Chairman of the IEEE CAS Chapter CentralSouth ITALY.
Currenti, G., Del Negro, C., Fortuna, L., Napoli, R. and Vicari, A. (2004). “Non-linear
analysis of geomagnetic time series from Etna volcano”, Nonlinear Processes in
Geophysics, 11, 119-125.
Del Negro C., Fortuna L., Vicari A., (2004). Modelling lava flows by Cellular Nonlinear
Networks (CNN): preliminary results. Nonlin. Proc. Geophys, 11: 1–9..
Vicari, A., Currenti, G., Del Negro, C., Fortuna, L., Herault, A., Napoli, R., Rizzo, A.,
(2005). Simulations of lava flows at Mt Etna using paradigms of parallel computing.
Nonlin. Phen. in Comp. Syst., 8:1, 84 – 88.
Arena, P.; Basile, A.; Bucolo, M.; Fortuna, L. “An object oriented segmentation on analog
CNN chip” IEEE Transactions on Circuits and Systems I: Fundamental Theory and
Applications, Vol. 50, No. 7, July 2003, pp. 837 – 846.
Caponetto, R., Fazzino, S., Fortuna, L., Frasca, M., “E^3: An universal emulator for
complex systems”, AIP Proceedings of 8th Experimental Chaos Conference 2004,
Florence, Italy 14-17 June 2004, pp. 301-306.
235
Project V3 - LAVA
RU V3/06
Scientific Responsible: Valerio Lombardo, Researcher, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e
Vulcanologia-Sezione CNT, Via di Vigna Murata 605, Roma, email: [email protected],
tel: 06-51860508, fax: 06-51860507
RU Composition:
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Lombardo Valerio
Researcher
INGV-CNT
Participants
Position
Institution
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
Man/Months 2nd
phase
3
Man/Months 1st
phase
0
0
2
Man/Months 2nd
phase
0
0
2
Spinetti Claudia
Researcher
INGV-CNT
Taddeucci Jacopo Researcher
INGV-RM1
Buongiorno
Director of Res.
INGV-CNT
Fabrizia
Scarlato
Senior
INGV- RM1
0
0
Piergiorgio
Researcher
Colini Laura
Researcher
INGV-CNT
1
3
Amici Stefania
Researcher
INGV-CNT
2*
2*
Silvestri Malvina
Research Fellow
INGV-CNT
0
0
Musacchio
Research Fellow
INGV-CNT
1
1
Massimo
Task 2 - Numerical Simulations and Satellite Techniques
WP 2.1: Basaltic melts emissivity measurements - Concerning the deliverables for thermal
anomalies, important experimental measurements of emissivity for Etnean lava flows have
been carried out. Emissivity is a key parameter in remote sensing thermal analysis. Starting
from the radiance measured by a remote sensor in a given infrared band, it is possible to
evaluate the brightness temperature at the sensor. Generally, this temperature is different
from surface temperature. This is due to different causes: the surface is not a black body,
thus emissivity contribution is not negligible; part of the radiation emitted by lavas is
absorbed, reflected and scattered by the atmosphere. If the emissivity is known, the surface
temperature can be retrieved from remotely-sensed spectral data. Spectral radiance
detected by spaceborne and airborne sensors must be corrected for the effects of solar
reflection and atmospheric contamination of the radiant signal. Multispectral satellite data
recorded in the short wave infrared region of spectrum (SWIR) have been used to estimate
temperature of hot volcanic features such as fumaroles, lava-lakes and lava-flows (Landsat
TM, ETM, ASTER). For analysis of active flows, temperature is an essential parameter to
measure. Modeling the thermal structure of active lava flows allows determining the total
thermal flux and therefore the instantaneous effusion rate of the flow Emissivity spectral
profiles in the short wave infrared region of spectrum (SWIR) have been estimated for
Etnean molten lavas. Emissivity values of molten rocks are lacking in literature. The
236
Project V3 – Lava
Experimental Volcanology Lab of the University of Wuerzburg, Germany, is equipped
with a relatively large rock melting facility equipped with a 20 cm-diameter crucible
inductively heated up to and above magmatic temperature. We load the crucible with 0.3
kg ca. of granulated rock from a basaltic bomb erupted at Etna in 2002 and heat it up to
1250 °C. Then we gradually lower the temperature while acquiring spectra of the melt
surface. A thermo-couple touching the same surface and connected to a data-logger
continuously records melt temperatures (Fig.1). The methodology adopted in this
experiment is based on the use of a field Spectroradiometer (ASD FieldSpec Pro) to
estimate the radiance emitted from basaltic melts at different temperatures in the SWIR.
Post processing of radiance spectra using the radiative transfer code MODTRAN allows to
distinguish between gas absorptions and emissivity features in the spectral profiles.
Preliminary results show that spectral emissivity signature of Etnean molten lavas varies as
a function of temperature and emissivity of molten lava is lower then emissivity of cooler
basalts.
WP 2.2: Lava flow thermal model - High spatial resolution data are essential for producing
detailed lava flow maps. Moreover, hyperspectral instruments, such as the MIVIS sensor,
offer hundreds of measurements in the SWIR-TIR spectral range, which allow for
improved analysis of the sub-pixel lava thermal structures (Oppenheimer et al, 1993c;
Flynn et al., 2000). Preliminary results suggest a complex thermal structure for Etnean lava
flows. This is characterized by a down-flow transition from a lightly crusted active channel
to a more heavily crusted distal zone of dispersed flow, both surrounded by zones of
stagnant cooling flow where exposed molten material is absent and maximum temperatures
are thus lower. Improvement in lava flow thermal model can greatly enhance accuracy of
effusion rate estimations.
WP 2.3 e WP 5.1: Hot-spot detection – Automatic detection of volcanic hot-spot has been
already tested during the activities of the European Project PREVIEW and are
implemented as a pre-operative tool in the ASI-INGV Project ASI-SRV(Sistema Rischio
Vulcanico) starting from January 2007 following the requirements furnished by DPC. The
“Hot-spot detection” automatic procedure is currently using AVHRR data directly
acquired by means of a NOAA/TERASCAN station located at the INGV in Rome. During
the second year of the project will be available a multi-approach which will combine the
information coming from MODIS data. The improvement of the AVHotRR system and the
routine for treatment of MODIS data will be also developed in the frame of ASI-SRV
project.
WP 2.4 e WP 5.3: Effusion rate estimation- Effusion rates were estimated from the heat
flux following the approach of Pieri and Baloga (1986) and as adapted to extract effusion
rates from satellite thermal data by Harris et al. (1997a; 1997b; 1998; 2000). Effusion rates
are already estimated by AVHotRR, an IDL developed program that automatically process
AVHRR data in near real time. As for the “Hot-spot detection” procedure the effusion rate
estimation product is already tested and implemented in the ASI-SRV project. In the
present project the algorithms used in the procedures will be improved by introducing new
experimental measurements of emissivity (WP 2.1) and compared with previous rates
derived by using emissivity of cold basalts. We plan to apply new emissivity results for
deriving effusion rates also from MODIS data. Influence of variation of the emissivity
parameter on effusion rate estimates will be analyzed using AVHRR time-series.
We consider very important to integrate the procedures developed in other projects aimed
to the implementation of operative tools for monitoring volcanic phenomena with the
237
results of scientific activities (WP2.1-WP2.2) which may improve the accuracy of the
algorithms and retrieved values. In particular the use of remote sensing data requires to
know both specific material intrinsic characteristics and the interaction between the solar
radiation and the atmosphere.
WP 2.5: Middle-high resolution DEM generation- Stereo viewing of images has been the
most common method used by the mapping, photogrammetry, and remote sensing
communities for elevation modeling. ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission
and Reflection Radiometer) is an imaging instrument that is flying on Terra, a satellite
launched in December 1999, as part of NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS). ASTER
two near-infrared spectral bands, 3N and 3B, generate along-track stereo image pair with a
base-to-height (B/H) ratio of about 0.6, and an intersection angle of about 27.7 degrees.
This allows for mapping at medium to large scales and for generating digital elevation
model (DEM) from the along-track stereo data. The IDL routine AsterDTM licensed from
RSI, allows for DEM generation using ASTER stereopair. We plan to apply the AsterDTM
routine on the ASTER dataset of Etna to retrieve topographic variation in the period 20012007.
1st half-year
1. Measurements of spectral emissivity of basaltic melts.
2. Hot-spot detection in near real time from AVHRR data (from ASI and FP7
projects).
3. Improvement of Active lava flow effusion rate algorithms from AVHRR data using
new emissivity measurements.
2nd half-year
4. Lava flow thermal model from high spatial resolution airborne data (MIVIS)
1st half-year
1. Hot-spot detection in near real time from MODIS data (from ASI and FP7
projects).
2. Active lava flow effusion rate from MODIS data using new emissivity
measurements.
2nd half-year
3. DEM derived from ASTER.
4. Analysis of emissivity influence on effusion rate estimates.
First Phase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
238
4000
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
Project V3 – Lava
3000
9200
1800
Totale
18000
Second Phase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
4000
12200
1800
Totale
18000
Total
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
8000
3000
21400
3600
Totale
36000
239
Valerio Lombardo Date of birth: 21 December 1969 Nationality: Italian
Education: professional exam in Geology, passed. 1980-1985: B.Sc. (full marks) in
Geological Sciences, Università degli Studi “La Sapienza” di Roma (Italy).
Professional experience:
2002-present: researcher at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di
Roma (INGV-CNT).
Research interests: Remote-sensing of active volcanoes. Eruptive processes; lava flows,
fumaroles and lava tubes; rheological analysis of volcanic melts; thermal imagery applied
to volcano monitoring.
Buongiorno M.F., Realmuto V.J., Doumaz F., Recovery of spectral emissivity from
Thermal Infrared Multispectral Scanner (TIMS). Imagery acquired over a mountainous
terrain: a case study from Mount Etna Sicily. January 2002, Remote Sensing of
Environment. Vol 79, pp.123-133, 2002.
Lombardo, V., M.F. Buongiorno (2006). Lava flow thermal analysis using three infrared
bands of remote-sensing imagery: a study case from Mount Etna 2001 eruption. , Remote
Sensing of environment 101/2:141-149.
Lombardo, V., M.F. Buongiorno and S. Amici (2006). Characterization of a volcanic
thermal anomalies by means of sub-pixel temperature distribution analysis: a case from
the 1996 mount Etna eruption using airborne imaging spectrometer data, Bull. Volcanol.
68, 07-08, 641-651; DOI: 10.1007/s00445-005-0037-2.
Lombardo, V., M.F. Buongiorno, D.C. Pieri and L. Merucci (2004). Differences in Landsat
TM derived lava flow thermal structure during summit and flank eruption at Mt. Etna, J.
Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 134, 1-2, 15-34.
Taddeucci J., Pompilio M. & Scarlato P. (2002). Monitoring the explosive activity of the
July-August 2001 eruption of Mt. Etna (Italy) by ash characterization. Geophys. Res.
Lett., 29, 71. doi: 10.1029/2001GL014372.
240
Project V3 – Lava
Project V3 - LAVA
RU V3/07
Scientific Responsible: Marsella Maria, Associate Professor, La Sapienza Università di
Roma, via Eudossiana, 18 - 00184 Roma, Phone +39-0644585098 E-mail:
[email protected]
RU Composition:
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Maria Marsella
Assoc. Prof.
Sapienza University of Roma
Participants
Position
Institution
Silvia Scifoni
Alberico Sonnessa
Ernesto Bernardo
Mauro Coltelli
Cristina Proietti
Quintilio Napoleoni
Collab.
PhD Student
Collab.
Senior Researcher
Post Doc
Ass. Prof.
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
Man/Months
1st phase
2
Man/Months
2nd phase
2
Man/Months
1st phase
6
1
1
0
0
1
Man/Months
2nd phase
6
1
1
0
3
1
Analysis and validation of methods for average effusion rate measurements based
on volumetric approach. Evaluation of results relative to instantaneous effusion rate
measurements using geometrical/volumetric constraint data.
WP 2.5 Development of techniques for intra-event rapid DEM mapping
Analysis of the techniques based on helicopter/airbornel/satellite stereomodel to
extract syneruption DEM: operational constraints, achievable vs required accuracy,
revisiting time and acquisition geometry for satellite sensors, processing time
required, ground measurements requirements.
Ground base topographical techniques with 3D capability to derived geometrical
parameters useful for rapid evaluation of lava flow advancement in case of simple
flow.
TASK 3 - Lava Flow Invasion Hazard Map
WP 3.2 Topographic data quality
Comparative statistical analysis of topographic data extracted by means of different
techniques to evaluate their usefulness for application having different accuracy
requirements. The analysis will include vector and raster maps as well as Digital
elevation model and orthophotos,
TASK 5 - Scenario Forecast and Hazard Mitigation
WP 5.5 Lava flow simulations including diversion barriers during an eruption
definition of the interaction mechanism between the lava flow and the barrier in
order to estimate the active force and establish constraints for barrier project
241

simulation tests on different case studies adopting pre-eruption DEM and sineruption data in order to calibrate the model and evaluate the impact of different
barrier configuration
definition of a tool which, on the basis of the simulation results and DEM updating,
can automatically extract the optimal barrier configuration the relative operational
plan
WP 5.6 Quantitative analysis of a barrier system for selected future eruptive scenarios
Documentation and quantitative analysis of 3 recent historical cases in which lava
flows reached/approached sensible areas
definition of operational project to build barriers in the sensible areas taking into
consideration environmental and operational issues to identify construction
elements, means of conveyance , costs and required times
1st half-year
1. Numerical three-dimensional maps pre and post eruption of the 3 case studies and,
in presence of useful data, reconstruction of the temporal evolution of the lava
flows
2nd half-year
2. Report on the results of the simulation tests obtained using different barrier
configurations
3. Definition of a model for the interaction barrier-flow
1st half-year
1. Quantitative analysis of the effect of different barrier configuration
2nd half-year
2. Operational plan to built up the selected barrier configuration for the 3 test cases
3. Configuration of a software for barrier construction to be interfaced with a geodatabase and the simulation tool
First Phase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
4000
10000
242
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
Project V3 – Lava
1000
Totale
15000
Second Phase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
4000
10000
1000
Totale
15000
Total
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
8000
20000
2000
Totale
30000
Maria Marsella. Degree in Physics (1987, Sapienza University), PhD in Geodesy and
Surveying (1992, Bologna Univ.), Assistant Professor at Engineering Faculty of Sapienza
University (1992-2001), Visiting Scientist (1993-94) at the U.S. Geological Survey,
Associate Professor (since 2001) at Sapienza where she teachs “Surveying” and “Geomatic
Monitoring Methods” at the Civil and Environmental Engineering courses. She conducted
ASI and ESA research projects. Since 1996 she was involved in projects funded by GNV,
INGV and Civil Protection Department dedicated to active volcanic areas monitoring.
Member of AIT (Ital. Ass. for Rem. Sens.) and CERI (Research Center on Geologic
243
Hazards). Her activity is focused on the technique for extracting high resolution digital
maps and terrain models by means of aerial and satellite photogrametry, laser scanning and
remote sensing. She is also involved in project dedicated to deformation monitoring in
presence of natural hazards.
Baldi P., Fabris M., Marsella M., Monticelli R.: (2005) Monitoring the morphological
evolution of the Sciara del Fuoco during the 2002-2003 Stromboli eruption using multitemporal photogrammetry , Journal of International Society of Photogrammetry and
remote Sensing Vol.59/4, pp199-211
Vicari A.; Herault A.; Del Negro C.; Coltelli M; Marsella M; Proietti C. (2007) Modeling
Of The 2001 Lava Flow At Etna Volcano By A Cellular Automata Approach,
Environmental Modelling & Software, 22, 1465-1471,doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.
Coltelli, M., Proietti, C., Branca, S., Marsella, M., Andronico, D., Lodato, L., (2007).
Analysis of the 2001 lava flow eruption of Mt. Etna from 3D mapping, JGR- Earth
Surface, in stampa.
Baldi P., Coltelli M. Fabris, M. Marsella M., Tommasi P (2007) High precision
photogrammetry for monitoring the evolution of Sciara del Fuoco after the2002-2003
Stromboli eruption, Bulletin of Volcanology, in stampa.
Marsella M., Coltelli M., Branca S., Proietti C., Monticelli R. (submitted). 2002-2003 Lava
Flow Eruption Of Stromboli: A Contribution To Understanding Lava Discharge
Mechanism Using Periodic Digital Photogrammetry Surveys, “Learning from Stromboli
and its 2002-03 eruptive crisis”. AGU Geophysical Monograph volume, Editors: S.
Calvari, S. Inguaggiato, G. Puglisi, M. Ripepe, M. Rosi
244
Project V3 – Lava
Project V3 - LAVA
RU V3/08
Scientific Responsible: Giovanni Russo, Professor, Director of the Marcello Anile Center
for Mathematics and its Applications, University of Catania.
Mailing address: Dipartimento di Matematica ed Informatica, Università di Catania, Viale
Andrea Doria 6, 95125, Catania, email: [email protected], tel: 095 7383039, fax: 095
330094
RU Composition:
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
Man/Months
2nd phase
3
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
Man/Months
2nd phase
3
Fraunhofer-ITWM
Fraunhofer-ITWM
2
2
2
3
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Russo Giovanni
Professor
Participants
Position
Institution
Sebastiano
Boscarino
Alfio Bonanno
Stavro Ivanovski
Norbert Siedow
Sudarsan Tiwari
Researcher
Researcher
PhD student
Researcher
Researcher
2
2
2
3
Task 2 – Numerical Simulations and Satellite Techniques
This project concerns development of mathematical models and numerical methods for
lava flows. Many problems in environmental sciences involve the large-scale movement of
solids and fluids. They are often irregular in their timing, difficult to observe and measure,
involve multiple types of physical processes on a broad range of spatial and temporal
scales and can be catastrophic in their consequences. Computational modelling can play an
important role both in helping understanding the nature of the fundamental processes
involved, and in predicting the detailed outcomes of various types of events in specific
locations.
With this project we propose to study novel mathematical models to describe the behavior
of lava, with particular attention to cooling and solidification, and to develop different
numerical techniques for lava flow simulation.
Mathematical model of lava cooling.
Traditionally, lava is considered a Bingham fluid, whose heat exchange is dominated by
conduction and convection inside the lava, and by radiation (through the Stefan term)
concentrated at its surface. The radiative heat transfer may play a role in accurately predict
solidification time. One of the objectives of the research is to perform a quantitative
investigation of the relevance of the thickness of lava in the heat exchange process that
leads to the crust formation. At the Fraunhofer ITWM there is a research group, lead by
Dr. Norbert Siedow, who studied the effect of radiative transfer in glass cooling,
developing an asymptotic model which is much more efficient than the full kinetic model
for radiative heat transfer, yet much more accurate than the purely convective-conductive
245
model that relegates radiative transfer to the Stefan term at the boundary. The results
obtained by the Fraunhofer group will be adapted to the lava, and the effect of influence of
the thickness of lava on its cooling time will be determined by a detailed numerical
simulation, using finite volume methods on a fixed domain.
Free Lagrangian methods for lava flow.
The use of Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics method (SPH) for lava flow simulation will
be investigated. SPHis a Lagrangian method for modeling heat and mass flows. Due to its
mesh-free nature and the handling of boundaries using SPH nodes, this method can handle
complex splashing and fragmenting free surface flows and the motion of multiple solid
equipment parts relatively easily. In traditional mesh-based methods used in commercial
fluid-flow packages, large mesh deformations are generated by the motion of the
equipment, leading to significant numerical problems. Alternatively, continuous regridding
of the mesh will make mesh-based method less efficient. In addition, the tracking of the
free surface is diffusive and inaccurate for the resolutions used. For SPH, materials are
discretized into particles that can move subject to equations of motion arising from the
governing partial differential equations. The particles are moving interpolation points that
carry with them (convect) physical properties and state information, such as the mass of
the fluid that the particle represents, its temperature, momentum, enthalpy, density, and
other properties. The inter-particle forces are calculated by smoothing the information from
nearby particles in a way that ensures that the resultant particle motion is consistent with
the motion of a corresponding real fluid, as determined by the governing equation (e.g., the
Navier-Stokes equations). So, particle-based modelling methods have specific advantages
over traditional grid or mesh-based continuum methods for geophysical problems. These
include highly accurate and non-diffusive prediction of complex free-surface behavior
including wave motion, fragmentation and splashing; accurate and automatic convection of
material; and the straightforward inclusion of multiscale multi-physics. The department of
Transport Processes of the Fraunhofer-ITWM has a large experience on the use of meshfree methods for fluid flow calculations, and the collaboration with them may be extremely
valuable in the application of SPH to lava flow.
These contributes will permit us to model the formation of the crust and, consequently, the
formation of the lava tube. This task will be developed with UR Del Negro.
Level set methods for free-boundary problems
Traditional finite element methods on unstructured tetrahedral grids become impractical
for free boundary problems, because most of the time would be spent to construct a grid
that adapts to the new geometry of the problem. This was one of the motivations for using
SPH for lava flow. As an alternative technique, one might explore the use of finite volume
methods on regular square grid on a large domain, using a level set function or the
associated signed distance function, to define the actual computational domain. The latter
is extended by the introduction of a few points outside of the domain (ghost points), whose
field variables are defined on the basis of the boundary conditions. A suitable evolution
equation for the level set function will automatically update the computational domain at
each time step. This approach, proposed by Osher and Fedkiw, is called ghost fluid
method. A similar approach for Navier-Stokes equation has been already used. A second
advantage of this approach is that the discretization of the equations is performed on a
regular square grid, which is usually more efficient and accurate than a discretization on an
unstructured grid with the same number of unknowns. Furthermore, such approach may be
more easily applicable to the asymptotic model for radiative heat transfer developed by
ITWM. One of the goals is to investigate the possibility of solving the partial differential
equations describing lava flow using the approach described above.
246
Project V3 – Lava
The development of the proposed mathematical models requires employing full time a new
young researcher. We propose to fund a contract for a young researcher (19000 Euros for
the contract of work, 5000 Euros for other expenses for each phase of the project). The
grant will be managed by the “Marcello Anile Center for Mathematics and its
Applications” (MACMA), an interuniversity research consortium among the Universities
of Catania and Florence, with the participation of the Fraunhofer ITWM Center of
Kaiserlautern (Germany).
1st half-year
1. Review of fluid dynamical models of lava, and development of a new model
obtained applying the boundary layer theory developed at ITWM for the radiative
heat transfer in glass.
2nd half-year
2. Validation of the model by comparison with classical model by fixed boundary
computation obtained by finite volume method
3. Investigation on the use of ghost-fluid method approach for the treatment of glass
or lava cooling on a fixed domain: formulation of the problem
1st half-year
1. Formulation of SPH discretization for the description of lava flow, using well
established mathematical models.
2. Implementation of SPH, and validation.
2nd half-year
3. Implementation of ghost-fluid method for glass or lava flow with moving
boundaries.
4. Comparison between SPH and ghost-fluid method.
First Phase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
,00
4000
19000
0,00
500
0,00
500
0,00
Totale
24000
24000
247
Second Phase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
4000
0,00
19000
0,00
0,00
500
0,00
500
0,00
Totale
0,00
24000
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Total
Categoria di spesa
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
8000
0,00
38000
0,00
0,00
1000
0,00
1000
0,00
Totale
0,00
48000
Prof. Giovanni Russo - Professor of Numerical Analysis, Department of Mathematics and
Computer Science, University of Catania, Italy; Director of the Marcello Anile Center for
Mathematics and its Applications (MACMA); Coordinator of the PhD program in
Mathematics for Technology, University of Catania (PhD Math. Tech.).
Professional experience: 2000-present Full Professor of Numerical Anaysis, University of
Catania, Italy; 2001-2006 Associate Editor SIAM J. Numer. Anal; 1992-2000 Associate
Professor of Numerical Analysis, University of L'Aquila, Italy; 1990-1992 Research
position at the University of L'Aquila, Italy; 1988-1990 Post doctoral position at the
Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences; 1987 CNR-NATO Fellowship for research
abroad; 1982-1983 Research experience for one year on solid state physics (laser
irradiation of semiconductors) at the Physics Institute of the University of Catania.
248
Project V3 – Lava
Educational background: 1984-1986 Ph.D. in Physics, University of Catania, Italy; Title
of the Thesis: "Propagation and Stability of Shock Waves in Classical and Relativistic
Gas Dynamics"
Advisor: Prof. A.M. Anile; 1976-1982 Laurea degree in Nuclear Engineering, Magna cum
Laude, Poiltecnico di Milano, Italy;
Research interests: Computational fluid dynamics - Numerical methods for conservation
laws - Numerical methods for kinetic equations - Mathematical modeling and simulation of
crystal growth
Anile, Angelo Marcello; Romano, Vittorio; Russo, Giovanni Extended hydrodynamical
model of carrier transport in semiconductors. SIAM J. Appl. Math. 61 (2000), no. 1, 74101
Russo, Giovanni; Smereka, Peter Kinetic theory for bubbly flow. I. Collisionless case.
SIAM J. Appl. Math. 56 (1996), no. 2, 327-357.
Russo, Giovanni; Smereka, Peter A level-set method for the evolution of faceted crystals.
SIAM J. Sci. Comput. 21 (2000), no. 6, 2073-2095.
N. Siedow. Radiative heat transfer and its application in glass production processes.
International Journal of Forming Processes. Vol. 2, No. 1-2/ 1999, pp 25-39.
A. Klar, N. Siedow. Boundary Layers and Domain Decomposition for Radiative Heat
Transferand Diffusion Equations: Applications to Glass Manufacturing Processes Euro.
Jnl of Applied Mathematics (1998), vol.9, pp.351-372.
249
Project V3 - LAVA
RU V3/9
Scientific Responsible: Andrea Tallarico, Professore Associato, Università di Bari, Centro
Interdipartimentale di Ricerca per la Valutazione e Mitigazione del Rischio Sismico e
Vulcanico, Via Orabona 4, 70125 Bari, email: [email protected], tel: 3397293528.
RU Composition:
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Andrea Tallarico
Associate
Professor
Università di
Bari
Participants
Position
Institution
Michele Dragoni
Full Professor
Stefano Santini
Antonello Piombo
Associate
Professor
Researcher
Marilena Filippucci
Research Fellow
Antonella Valerio
PhD student
Università di
Bologna
Università di
Urbino
Università di
Bologna
Università di
Bari
Università di
Bologna
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
Man/Months 2nd
phase
3
Man/Months 1st
phase
3
Man/Months 2nd
phase
3
3
3
3
3
5
5
5
5
TASK 5 - Scenario Forecast and Hazard Mitigation
WP 5.3 Effusion rates from thermal infrared satellite imagery
Thermo-fluid-dynamics of lava flows: theoretical aspects and experimental data.
The aim of the RU is to perform a quantitative study on the dynamics of lava flows in
order to provide the physical constrains necessary to develop a method to predict the lava
flows path. In particular, starting from the results achieved by the RU (V3 6/13) with
scientific responsible M. Dragoni within his project funded by Civil Protection during the
2005-07 contract, we intend to improve the reliability of the dynamical models of lava
flows nowadays available considering non-linear rheologies.
The study of non-linear rheologies appears to be a necessary step in order to describe the
lava behavior in a more realistic way getting over the approximation of the Newton or
Bingham fluid. This study needs both a theoretical approach taking into account the
thermal and fluid-dynamical processes, which take place in lava flows and the knowledge
of the parameters involved in the new rheological models. The models will consider lavas
with different chemical compositions (acidic, basic) and different effusion temperatures,
250
Project V3 – Lava
laterally unconfined flows and channelled flows, fed by variable effusion rates at the
eruption vent.
The flow models will employ different constitutive equations for the lava, aiming to check
which of them is more adequate to reproduce the different characteristics which are
observed in lava flows. In addition to the Newtonian and Bingham rheologies, we intend to
employ a power law rheology, representing a pseudoplastic rheological behaviour more
adequately than the Bingham body. In the case of a power law, the constitutive equation no
longer assumes a stress threshold associated with a constant viscosity for stress values
greater than the threshold, but includes a viscosity depending in a continuous manner on
strain rate and decreasing as the strain rate increases. The introduction of such a rheology
should allow to reproduce those characteristics of lava flows which are typical of a nonNewtonian behaviour, without resorting to the approximation connected with the Bingham
rheology, which predicts the existence of completely undeformed regions (the plug).
Modelling will be assisted by the availability of thermal and rheological data, which will
be collected by the experimental facilities at the Dept. of Earth and Environment,
University of Munich participating in the project as a subcontractor (responsible Dr. KaiUwe Hess) to which will be transferred 5000 Euros for each phase of the project. In
particular experimental data, regarding the viscosity and rheology of lava at subliquidus
temperature, appear to be necessary in order to describe the dynamics of lava flows far
from the vent where, as consequence of cooling, magma can easily reach temperatures
below its liquidus temperature. A phenomenon affecting lava cooling and consequently its
dynamical behaviour is the viscous thermal dissipation taking place during the flow. This
aspect is not yet exhaustively treated in volcanological literature and experimental
measurements of the amount of heat generated by this mechanism may be crucial in order
to decide if this heat source has to be taken into account in modelling lava flows.
The theoretical aspects will be studied by collaboration between the Universities of Bari
and Bologna. The complexity in the development of theoretical models, the necessity to
check the models against the experimental data collected by the group of Munich, the need
to implement the obtained results with the simulator of lava flows developed by the RU of
Catania, suggest to involve in the project a new young researcher, to employ full time. For
this reasons and taking into account that two people belonging to the RU will finish their
contracts with the University during the next year, we propose to fund a contract for a
young researcher. In this case an amount of money, corresponding to a contract for a
young researcher (20000 Euros for the contract of work, 4000 Euros for other expenses for
each phase of the project), will be transferred to the University of Bologna.
1st half-year
1. Experimental data concerning thermal properties of lava
2. Dynamical models with non linear rheology
2nd half-year
3. Model for crust formation
1st half-year
1. Experimental data concerning rheological properties of lava
251
2. Model to estimate the lava flow rate from satellite images
2nd half-year
3. Study of phenomena associated with lava flows (levee formation, tube formation,
ephemeral vents)
4. Implementation of the achieved results in the lava flows simulator
First Phase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
8000
0,00
25000
0,00
0,00
3000
0,00
4000
0,00
Totale
40000
Second Phase
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
8000
0,00
25000
0,00
0,00
3000
0,00
4000
0,00
Totale
252
0,00
40000
Project V3 – Lava
Total
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
16000
0,00
50000
0,00
0,00
6000
0,00
8000
0,00
Totale
80000
Andrea Tallarico graduated in physics cum laude in the University of Bologna in 1991.
In 1995 he obtained PhD degree in physics from the University of Bologna. In 1995 he
obtained a fellowship in physics of volcanism at the University of Bologna. He was
university researcher since 1997 in the University of Bari. Since 2002 he is associate
professor of physics of the Earth in the University of Bari. Since 2003 he is member of the
Scientific Council of "Dottorato di Ricerca" in Earth Science established at University of
Bari. His research activity is carried out in the fields of physics of the volcanism,
seismology and tectonophysics. He was principal investigator in research projects funded
by ASI (Italian Space Agency).
M. Dragoni, A. Tallarico, Temperature field and heat flow around an elliptical lava tube
Journal
of
volcanology
and
geothermal
research,
2007
doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.08.016
Piombo, A., Tallarico, A., M. Dragoni M., Displacement, strain and stress fields due to
shear and tensile dislocations in a viscoelastic half-space. Geophysical Journal
International,
170,
3,
1399-1417,
2007
doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03283.x
Tallarico, A., M. Dragoni, and G. Zito, Evaluation of lava effusion rate and viscosity from
other flow parameters J. Geophys. Res., 111, B11205, doi:10.1029/2005JB003762,
2006.
Dragoni, M; Borsari, I; Tallarico, A., A model for the shape of lava flow fronts. J.
Geophys. Res , Vol. 110, No. B9, B09203 doi:10.1029/2004JB003523, 2005.
Tallarico, A., M. Dragoni, M. Anzidei, and A. Esposito, Modeling long-term ground
deformation due to the cooling of a magma chamber: Case of Basiluzzo island, Aeolian
Islands, Italy, J. Geophys. Res., 108(B12), 2568, doi:10.1029/2002JB002376, 2003.
253
Project V3 - LAVA
RU V3/10
Scientific Responsible: Valerio Tramutoli, Researcher, Università degli Studi della
Basilicata, Dipartimento di Ingegneria e Fisica dell’Ambiente, Via dell’Ateneo Lucano, 10,
85100 Potenza. email: [email protected], tel e fax: 0971-205205
RU Composition:
Scientific Resp.
Position
Institution
Valerio Tramutoli
Researcher
DIFA-UNIBAS
Participants
Position
Institution
Nicola Pergola
Francesco Marchese
Researcher
Research
Fellow
PhD student
PhD student
PhD student
PhD student
Researcher
Contract Res.
Researcher
Research
Fellow
Research
Fellow
Research
Fellow
Giuseppe Mazzeo
Giuseppe Baldassarre
Carolina Aliano
Mariano Lisi
Carolina Filizzola
Rosita Corrado
Teodosio Lacava
Rossana Paciello
Sara L. C. Grimaldi
Mariapia Faruolo
Man/Months
1st phase
3
Man/Months
2nd phase
3
IMAA-CNR
DIFA-UNIBAS
Man/Months
1st phase
2
3
Man/Months
2nd phase
2
3
DIFA-UNIBAS
DIFA-UNIBAS
DIFA-UNIBAS
DIFA-UNIBAS
IMAA-CNR
DIFA-UNIBAS
IMAA-CNR
IMAA-CNR
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
IMAA-CNR
2
2
IMAA-CNR
2
2
The Research Unit will contribute to the project mainly to Task 2 and Task 5, developing
and validating up to a pre-operative level, a Robust Satellite Techniques (RST), for realtime detection and monitoring of hot spots related to volcanic eruptions suitable to:
-
follow space-time evolution of lava flows
monitor relative variation of the thermally emitted signal
estimate lava effusion rate
The possibility to produce early warning for impending eruption will be also evaluated and
tested also by exploit the analysis of available long-term satellite records.
254
Project V3 – Lava
TASK 2 – Numerical Simulations and Satellite Techniques
WP 2.3 – Development of techniques for hotspot detection.
WP 2.4 – Development of techniques for lava effusion rate measurements
The RST approach for automated detection of thermal features related to volcanic activity
(Pergola et al., 2004) demonstrated a very high reliability (false alarms rate < 2%) and a
high sensitivity even toward very low (and pre-eruptive, see also Di Bello et al., 2004)
thermal variations. Its implementation on NOAA/AVHRR satellite data has been
successfully experimented on Italian volcanoes in the framework of several research
projects and, in particular on Mount Etna volcano during the previous DPC-INGV
volcanological project. In this task the advanced possibilities offered by EOS/MODIS in
terms of higher dynamical range in the MIR and higher spatial resolution in the VIS
spectral regions will be exploited in order to improve lava affected pixels identification
(reducing saturation problems) and lava flow mapping integrating MIR (at 1 km) with VIS
(at 250m) observations. The extended dynamic range offered by MODIS in the MIR will
be also exploited to better monitor relative variations of the lava thermally emitted signal
trying to discriminate, within each image pixel, the lava temperature, from the lava
extension, contribute to the measured signal. Similar positive impacts are expected from
MODIS, on the determination of effusion rate estimation using traditional (e.g. Harris et al.
1997) or improved, RST based, approaches. Moreover coupling AVHRR with MODIS
based data, the frequency of lava map updating will be also improved up to 3 hours and
more.
AVHRR and MODIS data are directly received and routinely processed at RU labs where
multi-years datasets are also available. During the first year of the project a specific
processing chain for Etna thermal activity monitoring will be activated in order to achieve:
- improved algorithms for hot spots detection (to obtain better effusive rate
estimations) based on MODIS
- a completely automated generation of MODIS+AVHRR based products
TASK 5 – Scenario Forecast and Hazard Mitigation
WP 5.1 - Hot-spot detection in near real-time
WP 5.3 - Effusion rates from thermal infrared satellite imagery
The second year of the project will be mainly devoted to the validation of both, algorithms
and product generation chain, and to their integration into DPC interface.
Algorithm test will be performed at first on selected event in the past then in near real-time
in a pre-operative context. Product chain generation as well as their transfer into the DPC
operative system will be also planned, implemented and tested in a pre-operative way in
this phase.
1st half-year
1. improved algorithms for hot spots detection based on AVHRR
2nd half-year
2. improved algorithms for hot spots detection based on MODIS
255
3. completely automated generation of MODIS+AVHRR based products (for lava
mapping, effusive rate estimation, etc.)
1st half-year
1. Implementation and test of automated processing chain for satellite product
generation.
2nd half-year
2. Design, implementation and test of interfaces for the integration of satellite based
products into the DPC operational system.
First Phase
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
3000
0,00
12000
0,00
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
0,00
3000
0,00
2000
0,00
Totale
0,00
20000
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Second Phase
Categoria di spesa
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
3000
0,00
12000
0,00
0,00
3000
0,00
2000
0,00
Totale
256
0,00
20000
Project V3 – Lava
Total
Categoria di spesa
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
6000
0,00
24000
0,00
0,00
6000
0,00
4000
0,00
Totale
0,00
40000
Valerio Tramutoli
Date of birth: 28 December 1957, Nationality: Italian.
Degree in Physics at the Rome “La Sapienza” University. Since 1990 he is at the
University of Basilicata as senior researcher (since 1993) where holds (since 1997) the
courses on General Physics and Satellite Remote Sensing for Natural and Environmental
Hazards, at the Faculties of Engineering and Sciences. Since 1991 he has been visiting
scientist in the main international centres involved in the Earth’s observation by satellite
and has taken part as coordinator, PI or co-investigator in several national and international
projects as well as international scientific groups (in the framework of EU, ESA, ASI,
EUMETSAT, NASA, NASDA EO, IGOS activities). He has been among the few italian
scientists invited to partecipate, since 2001, to the IGOS-Geohazard Core Team committed
by IGOS Partners to define the new observational strategies for geo-hazards mitigation for
the next decade. Since 2001 is the responsible of LADSAT (Satellite Data Analysis)
Laboratory at DIFA. His research activity has been focused on the development of new
satellite sensors and techniques in the field of natural, environmental and industrial hazards
monitoring (and mitigation) by satellite remote sensing. In this framework since 1998 he
proposed the general RAT (now named RST) approach.
Filizzola, C., Lacava, T., Marchese, F., Pergola, N., Scaffidi, I., Tramutoli, V., 2007.
“Assessing RAT (Robust AVHRR Technique) performances for volcanic ash cloud
detection and monitoring in near real-time: The 2002 eruption of Mt. Etna (Italy)”.
Remote Sensing of The Environment, 107, 440-454.
Pergola, N., Tramutoli, V., Scaffidi, I., Lacava, T., Marchese, F., 2004, Improving volcanic
ash clouds detection by a robust satellite technique, Remote Sensing of Environment,
Volume 90, Issue 1, pp. 1-22.
Pergola, N., Marchese, F., Tramutoli, V., 2004, Automated detection of thermal features of
active volcanoes by means of Infrared AVHRR records. Remote Sensing of
Environment, Volume 93, Issue 3, pp. 311-327.
257
Di Bello G., Filizzola C., Lacava T., Marchese F., Pergola N., Pietrapertosa C., Piscitelli
S., Scaffidi I., Tramutoli V., 2004, Robust Satellite Techniques for Volcanic and Seismic
Hazards Monitoring, Annals of Geophysics, 47, (1) 49-64.
Marchese, F., Telesca, L., Pergola, N. (2006). Investigating the temporal fluctuations in
satellite advanced very high resolution radiometer thermal signals measured in the
volcanic area of Etna (Italy). Fluctuations and Noise Letters, 6, no.3, 305-316.
258