Fondazione Lombardia per l`Ambiente

SCENARI CLIMATICI, IMPATTI E ADATTAMENTO
NELL’AMBIENTE ALPINO DELLA LOMBARDIA
Antonio Ballarin‐Denti
Università Cattolica di Brescia
Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente
Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente
Convenzione delle Alpi – ARGE ALP, Bolzano, 23 settembre 2010
Institutions and Universities:
•ARPA Lombardia
•Associazione Rete di Punti Energia (CESTEC)
•Centro Comune di Ricerca (CE)
•Comitato Glaciologico Italiano
•Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche
•Consorzio Poliedra
•ERSAF Lombardia
•Fondazione ENI E. Mattei
•Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente
•Politecnico di Milano
•Regione Lombardia
•Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
•Università degli Studi di Milano
•Università degli Studi di Milano Bicocca
•Università degli Studi di Parma
•Università degli Studi della Tuscia
Leaders
•Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente
(project coordinator)
•Regione Lombardia
•ARPA Lombardia
Supporters
•Regione Lombardia
•Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente
•APAT (ISPRA)
•ERSAF Lombardia
Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente
Climate change – an integrated framework
Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente
The Kyoto Project, a further evolution of the Air Quality
Regional Plan (PRQA), aimed to achieve the following
objectives:
Climate studies ‐ Analysis of climate evolution and current trends
in Lombardy also considering the frequency and intensity of
extreme meteorological events
Emissions ‐ Implementation and update, of the INEMAR emission
inventory for the six GHGs set by the Kyoto protocol and EU
policies
Flows, sinks and stocks of GHGs ‐ Improvement of monitoring
networks for GHGs emissions and net carbon fluxes between
atmosphere, soil and agro‐forestry systems in Lombardy
Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente
Impacts ‐ Evaluation of economic, environmental and health
externalities linked with the present climate change
Scenarios, policies and measures – Emission trends as a function of
different economic, social, technological scenarios and emission
reduction policies. Evaluation protocols for local actions to be
undertaken in different sectors involved in GHGs emissions
Public communication – Web site with links with institutions,
research bodies, companies and general public
Web Site: http://www.kyotolombardia.org
Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente
Regional
climatology
Temperature deviations in K from 20th century mean for Italian areas located
between 42°-46° Latitude(N) and 4°-18° Longitude(E), extracted from the Int. J.
Climatol. 21: 1779-1801 (2001).
Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente
Temperature
•VARIAZIONI DELLE TEMPERATURE MEDIE ANNUALI E STAGIONALI NEL PERIODO 1800‐2007 RISPETTO AL PERIODO DI RIFERIMENTO 1961‐1990 Precipitations
•VARIAZIONE DELLE PRECIPITAZIONI ANNUALI STAGIONALI NEL PERIODO 1800‐2007 RISPETTO AL PERIODO
DI RIFERIMENTO 1961‐1990
Running‐trend analysis of temperature and precipitations in Lombardy Region ANALISI
DELLA
TENDENZA
TEMPORALE
DELLE
TEMPERATURE E DELLE PRECIPITAZIONI MEDIE ANNUALI
DELLA LOMBARDIA
Frequency and intensity of extreme events
Trend in the number of intense precipitation events
Seasonal cloud cover in northern Italy
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Alpine glaciers
FORNI Glacier
Dynamics of Lombardy Glaciers
Emissions Inventory
INEMAR – regional emission inventory Activity rate (A)
Research investigations
into 70 societies and
companies
Emission
Factors (FE)
Corinair data
Lombardy Region
data
Methodology
Point Sources Emissions
Census of about 300 plants (energy
industries, waste disposals,refineries,
other industrial plants)
Q = A ⋅ FE
Q = Annual emission of pollutant for each
pollutant and activity according to
European classification SNAP 97
Residential Plants
Emissions
Forest Emissions
based on Corinair methodology
Area sources emissions
(agriculture, industry, ...)
Total Emission
Visualization by Nebula
LTK
Road Transport
Emissions
Based on Copert II
methodology
Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente
Percentage of greenhouse gas emissions in Lombardy in
2005 www.ambiente.regione.lombardia.it/inemar/inemarhome.htm
GHGs emissions in Lombardy ‐ year 2001
by sector (%)
GHG Emissions variation in Lombardy 1990 ‐ 2005
GHGs fluxes, sinks, stocks Ecosystem productivity in Lombardy
Protocol for mapping the C‐sink in the Lombardy Region
Estimate of carbon stocks in the soils of Lombardy
Carbon flux measurements (Eddy covariance)
Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente
Net Ecosystem carbon Exchange during the year
Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente
Influence of ozone pollution (stomatal flux) on GPP
Impacts
Aims
1. Draw a picture of impacts due to climate changes in Lombardy region particularly produced by an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events (rains and temperatures)
2. Estimate external costs of climate changes through economic and non‐economic evaluations of impacts of natural and anthropogenic environment
3. Estimate environmental, social and economic effects produced by the implementation of the adaptation policies
Considered potential risks:
•
•
•
•
•
Injuries to human health produced by heat waves
Damages to agriculture produced by drought and meteorological extreme events
Damages to infrastructures produced by flood and hydrogeological accidents
Increase of energy costs for heating and air conditioning
Effects of terrestrial and water ecosystems
Synoptic scheme of direct and indirect impact
Land use
Use of fossil fuels
Increase in greenhouse gases
Meteorological and climatic variables
Water
extreme weather events
SOCIETY AND ECONOMY
NATURAL SYSTEMS
Terrestrial Ecosystem
Water Ecosystem
Land
Energy
Health
Infrastructure
Agricolture
tourism
Natural Ecosystems: Natura 2000 network
Loss of habitat vocation for ibex in Adamello Park
Assessment of the sensitivity of different crops to climate change
Risk map by forest fires in Lombardy
Impacts on land structures
Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente
Economic losses and insurance costs caused by extreme climatic events
■ Compensation amount
■ Total losses
Costs for one ton of CO2 reduction
Immediate
industrial costs
• Costs associated to a decrease of production
required to reduce one ton of CO2 emitted
• Costs associated to structural actions
• Costs associated to modifications of operating
management (es. fuel switching, …)
• Global Environmental Costs
– GHGs (CO2, CH4, CFC, ecc.)
Social - environmental • Local Environmental Costs
costs avoided
– Land use changes
– Pollution (NOx, SO2, O3, PTS, CO, ecc.)
Loss of crop productivity
Material goods damages
Health damages
Scenarios and policies
Scenarios and policies: aims
1. Definition of an emission reduction objective at
regional level.
2. Build-up of emission trend scenarios related to
different reduction objectives.
3. Outline of direct and indirect economic policies
aimed to reduction objectives.
4. Evaluation of technology policies (focus on
buildings, transport, biomass, biofuels)
5. Guide-lines for Regional Mitigation Plans
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Methodology
The econometric model MARKAL-TIMES
has been applied to different scenarios to
evaluate sectorial economic regional
policies and their cost & benefits effects
on emissions reduction objectives
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Conclusions
The backgrounds generated by the model suggest that:
1) some measures already in place, if continued, will
contribute significantly to reducing CO2 emissions
but not enough
2) the alternative Background 1 shows the extreme
difficulty / impossibility of reducing emissions of
1990 within 2020 (37% vs. 2005) 3)
3) the alternative Background 2 envisages a feasible
way to reduce CO2 emissions about 20% compared
to 2005
It remains necessary to promote in an efficient and radical way
the policies to reduce demand
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grazie per l’attenzione