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69-72, 5 figg. 1 tab. Atti Ticinensi di Scienze della Terra, S.S. 9 (2003) THERMAL MODELLING OF SEDIMENTARY SUCCESSIONS MODELLIZZAZIONE TERMICA DI SUCCESSIONI SEDIMENTARIE D. GRIGO (1) & S. SCHMALHOLZ (2) ABSTRACT We present the thermo-tectonic modelling software, TECMOD2D, which enables reconstructing the thermal history of sedimentary successions deposited in extensional basins. The software includes a numerical forward model, which simulates extensional basin formation and deposition of sedimentary successions. The forward model is based on pure shear kinematics and a set of stretching factors controls the velocity field during extension. The forward model is coupled with an automatic inversion algorithm and TECMOD2D detects the set of stretching factors, which generates modelled sedimentary successions that are close to observed successions. The set of stretching factors minimizing the misfit between observed and modelled sedimentary successions are termed the optimal set. The thermal evolution calculated with the forward model using the optimal set is then considered as thermal history reconstruction. The main objective using TECMOD2D is the assessment of the thermal history in frontier areas characterized by a lack of boreholes and deep to ultra-deep waters. The application of this software and of the relevant methodology to a deep-water passive margin demonstrated the capability in the prognosis of the thermal profile of three wells drilled after. RIASSUNTO Presentiano il programma di ‘modelling’ termo-tettocnico, TECMOD2D, che permette la ricostruzione della storia termica di una successione sedimentaria in bacini distensivi. Il programma include un modello numerico ‘forward’, che simula la formazione di un bacino distensivo e la deposizione di una seria sedimentaria. Il modello ‘forward’ e basato su di una cinematica di ‘pure shear’, mentre una seria di fattori di ‘stretching’ controllano il campo di velocità durante l’estensione. Il modello ‘forward’ è accoppiato con un algoritmo di inversione automatica e TECMOD2D definisce le serie di fattori ‘stretching’ che generano succcessioni sedimentarie simulate che sono il più vicine alle successioni ossservate. I fattori di ‘stretching’ che minimizzano l’errore tra successioni sedimentarie simulate ed osservate sono definite come ottimali. L’evoluzione termica calcolata col modello ‘forward’ utilizzando la serie ottimale, viene quindi considerata per le ricostruzioni termiche. Nell’utilizzo di TECOMD2D l’obiettivo principale è la definizione della storia termica in aree non ancora perforate, caratterizzate da assenza di dati di pozzo, e da aree di acque profonde. L’applicazione di tale software e della metodologia relativa ad un bacino passivo in acque profonde ha dimostrato la capacità di prevedere i profili termici di tre pozzi perforati successivamente. KEY-WORDS: LITHOSPHERIC MODELLING, BASIN MODELLING, DEEP WATER PAROLE CHIAVE: MODELLISTICA LITOSFERICA, MODELLISTICA DI BACINO, ACQUE PROFONDE (1) ENI Exploration and Production Divison, Milano, Italy (2) GeoModelling Solutions GmbH, Zurich, Switzerland 1. THE FORWARD MODEL The forward model is based on pure shear kinematics allowing for depth-dependent stretching and multiple rifting events of finite duration [KOOI et al., 1992; MCKENZIE, 1978; ROYDEN & KEEN, 1980]. The lithosphere is represented by a series of vertical columns and each column is assigned a stretching factor for the crust (d) and lithospheric mantle (b). The velocity field resulting from kinematic stretching is used to advect the temperature field. The evolution of the temperature field in 2D is determined by the equation where r, c, T, t, vx, vz, k and A are the density, the specific heat, the temperature, the time, the velocity in the x-direction, the velocity in the z-direction, the thermal conductivity and the volumetric heat production, respectively, and the subscripted index i determines the model unit (e.g., i=4 for the crust). Sediment deposition is controlled by a userspecified water-depth (variable in both space and time). Sediments are compacted and included within the thermal calculations, which enables calculating the insulating effect of the sediments (“thermal blanketing”). The density changes due to stretching and thermal alteration causes loads that differ from the initial isostatic equilibrium and cause a deflection of the crustal topography. Considering a flexural strength of the lithosphere the deflection of the crust is constrained by the equation [KOOI et al., 1992; WATTS et al., 1982] where D, w, rm, rin, g, S and q are the flexural rigidity, the reversible flexural deflection, the average density of the mantle, the average density of the basin infill, the acceleration due to gravity, the irreversible deflection and the “dead” load. Equations (1) and (2) are solved with a conservative finite difference scheme. D. Grigo & S. Schmalholz 2. THE AUTOMATED INVERSION ALGORITHM Automated inversion (or reconstruction) of extensional basin formation can be treated as a constrained optimisation problem [BELLINGHAM & WHITE, 2000; POPLAVSKII et al., 2001]. The function to be minimized is the misfit between observed and modelled sedimentary successions. Constraints are imposed because of modelling (e.g., d factor must be larger than one) or geological reasons (e.g., rifting lasts 15 million years). The inversion consists in the iterative search for the optimal set of d, b and palaeo-water depth values, which yield the best fit between the observed and modelled sedimentary successions. The optimal set of d, b and palaeo-water depth values minimizes the chosen goal function, which is the misfit between the observed and modelled presentday depths of stratigraphic horizons. The goal function contains the misfits between every observed and modelled stratigraphic horizon for a chosen number of points on a cross section, which makes the minimization procedure equally sensitive for all observed data. The thermal evolution calculated with the forward model using the optimal set of d, b and palaeo-water depth values is considered as thermal history reconstruction. Fig. 1 - Modelled and observed sedimentary successions. Numbers in the legend are ages in million years before present. Sequenza sedimentaria osservata e modellata. I numeri in legenda si riferiscono alle età in milioni di anni. 3. APPLICATION The present-day sedimentary successions of a real deep-water margin have been reconstructed with TECMOD2D (Fig. 1). The area was previously detected by well only in the shallow water setting outlining a Fig. 2 - The optimal set of crustal (d) and lithospheric mantle (b) thinning factors. The numbers in the legend indicate the age of the horizon, which was used to fit the thinning factors. thermal gradient distribution slightly decreasing toward the present shelf break. I parametri ottimali di assottigliamento della crosta (d) e del mantello litosferico (b). I numeri in legenda indicano le età degli orizzonti usati per riprodurre i fattori di assottigliamento The extrapolation of this trend together with consideration about the proximity of oceanic crust in the deep water settings supported in the past a model magnetometric response in order to better constrain the depth of a strong decrease of the thermal gradient passing from model. As a matter of fact at those deeper level, rarely reached shallow to deep water sectors. In the present exercise the by well, the seismic velocity control in quite scarce. The results coming from the TECMOD application will be presence the shape and the magnitude of gravimetric and checked against those outlined by the previous model, and magnetometric anomalies can be also helpful in the definition finally validated on the results of the exploratory campaign of crustal features that are very important in the lithospheric that followed. modelling. The possibility to define the crust type and To perform a Thermo-Tectonic or Lithosperic modelling thickness, for example, is very important in the definition of application a complete definition of basin geological model the crust heat production along the modelled profile. The has to be carried out, with particular emphasis to the aspect identification of the presence of transfer zones could be also affecting the thermal setting s ant it’s evolution trough time. useful in the definition of a widespread thermal model. The The definition of the present basement topography is the last element can also be used in the selection of a proper starting point for the reconstruction of basin evolution. This profile direction in order to detect the thermal setting of a can be obtained combining the seismic definition of it together homogeneous crust portion or cell of the passive margin. with detection and modelling of the gravimetric and The seismic interpretation of the sedimentary fill has then Università degli Studi di Pavia 70 Thermal modelling of sedimentary successions Initial crustal thickness Initial lithospheric thickness Thermal conductivity lithospheric mantle Thermal conductivity crust Thermal conductivity sediments Radiogenic heat production crust Efold length heat production crust Radiogenic heat production sediments Thermal expansion coefficient mantle Thermal expansion coefficient crust Isotherm that defines effective elastic thickness Depth of necking Rifting event 1 Rifting event 2 to outline the main element affecting the passive margin evolution. The total thickness of the syn-rift sediments has to be carried out together with the presence of possible intra syn-rift unconformities that can suggest the present of multi-rift phases. During the interpretation of the sequences deposited during the thermal cooling phase particular care has to be applied not only at the definition of the entire post-rift sequences thickness but, also in this case, to the definition of sequence boundaries outlining strong change in the sedimentation rates suggesting changes in the thermal cooling rate and/or in the relationship between sediments supply and accommodation space. Then as last step the Geological Model developed has to be completed with crustal parameter and rifting age as listed in Table 1. Once the fitting of the stratigraphy has been obtained, the optimal set of the crustal (d) stretching factors show a rough profile, because they are used to match the rough basement topography during rifting (Fig. 2). The maximal values of the lithospheric mantle (b) stretching factors are located at positions different to these of the crustal stretching factors. The lithospheric mantle stretching factors are also smoother than the crustal ones, because they are used to fit the thermal postrift subsidence. The palaeo-bathymetry evolution for the modelled section is also computed and shown in figure 3. A strong increase in sea water depth can be outlined in the deep water settings during thermal cooling due to the higher induced subsidence not accompanied by sufficient sediment supply. This is confirmed by sedimentation rate decrease and open marine condition in the well drilled on the shelf. The palaeo-heat flow at the crust-sediment boundary, as presented in figure 4, has a maximum of about 3.1 HFU around 110 Ma between X-positions 0 and 80 km. The average present day heat flow along the section is around 1.3 HFU and do not show the strong decrease postulated by the previous thermal model. The heat flow value computed along the section was then extrapolated accounting of the basin structural setting and of the presence of transfer zones, obtaining a set of heat flow maps to be used in a 3D Basin Modelling application. The exploration history of the area determines the drilling of three wells along or in the vicinity of the modelled section. The temperature curves profile obtained from the heat flow values computed by TECMOD2D are compared in figure 5 with those coming from the previous thermal model and against the wells measures. In general the thermal model coming from TECMOD application match more properly the well data outlining 35 km 125 km 3.5 W/K/m 2.5 W/K/m 2.0 W/K/m 3e-6 W/m^3 7.5 km 1e-6 W/m^3 3.2e-5 1/K 2.4e-5 1/K 200°C 10 km 138 to 116 Ma 116 to 110 Ma Tab. 1 - Parameter values used for the numerical simulation. Parametri usati per la simulazione numerica Fig. 3 - The palaeo-bathymetry of the numerical simulation. Le paleobatimetrie della simulazione numerica Fig. 4: - The palaeo-heat flow at the crust-sediment boundary. I paleoflussi di calore al limite crosta sedimenti 71 Atti Ticinensi di Scienze della Terra - S.S. 9 D. Grigo & S. Schmalholz Fig. 5 - Computed temperature (in °C) compared among different models with those measured in wells after the simulation. Temperature calcolate (in °C) comparate tra modelli diversi e con quelle misurate in pozzo dopo la simulazione. Gravity Modelling With an Application to the Gulf of Lions Margin (Se France), Journal of Geophysical Research-Solid Earth, 97 (B12), 17553-17571, 1992. MCKENZIE, D., Some remarks on the development of sedimentary basins, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 40, 25-32, 1978. POPLAVSKII, K.N., Y.Y. PODLADCHIKOV & R.A. STEPHENSON, Twodimensional inverse modelling of sedimentary basin subsidence, Journal of Geophysical Research-Solid Earth, 106 (B4), 66576671, 2001. ROYDEN, L. & C.E. KEEN, Rifting processes and thermal evolution of the continental margin of Eastern Canada determined from subsidence curves, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 51, 343-361, 1980. WATTS, A.B., G.D. KARNER & M.S. STECKLER, Lithosphere flexure and the evolution of sedimentary basins, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, 305, 249-281, 1982. the risk of temperature underestimation that was present in the previous model. In this kind of settings the temperature differences of the two models at wells can determine at the depth of the source a dramatic change in the prevision of maturity and HC volumes generated and Expelled. REFERENCES BELLINGHAM, P., & N. WHITE: A general inverse method for modelling extensional sedimentary basins, Basin Research, 12 (3-4), 219226, 2000. KOOI, H., S. CLOETINGH & J. BURRUS, Lithospheric Necking and Regional Isostasy At Extensional Basins .1. Subsidence and Manoscritto definitivo consegnato il 1 aprile 2003 Finito di stampare il 23 maggio 2003 Università degli Studi di Pavia 72