Materie prime strategiche per l`industria ceramica

in collaborazione con
Materie prime
strategiche per
l’industria ceramica
Lunedì 24 settembre 2012 - Rimini
Le materie prime:
evoluzione dei concetti di scarsità, strategicità e criticità
Gian Andrea Blengini
Politecnico di Torino
CNR-IGAG Torino
Concetti di base
L’Economia è la scienza che studia la corrispondenza tra:
RISORSE
BISOGNI
(scarse)
(illimitati)
dove le risorse = fonti di beni e servizi
SCARSITÀ
EFFICIENZA
Per quanto riguarda le materie prime minerarie, il concetto di
Scarsità è più articolato (Scarsità ≠ Limitatezza)
l’Efficienza diventa un obiettivo più difficile da raggiungere
2
The fixed stock paradigm takes a geological
perspective. It starts from the premise that the
supply of any mineral commodity is finite.
Continued extraction and use will lead first to
scarcity and eventually to exhaustion (Baumol
& Blackman 2007).
http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/NaturalResources.html
Una misura comunemente adottata per la scarsità
fisica (limitatezza) è l'indice statico delle riserve
(static reserve index), cioè il rapporto tra le riserve e
la produzione / consumo annuali. Il risultato è una
stima della durata delle riserve, espressa in anni.
3
http://www.newscientist.com/data/images/archive/2605/26051202.jpg
Fixed stock paradigmStatic reserve index sono utili per
4
prevedere / programmare il futuro?
“…long-run trends in real prices, real production costs, or other
measures of what society has to give up to obtain another unit of a
mineral commodity provide a better indicator of trends in availability
than physical measures indicating how much is left in the ground.
Indeed, the available estimates of physical supply cannot be
understood without recognizing the economics.”
(Gordon and Tilton – Resources Policy 33/2008)
Secondo la prospettiva dell’economia mineraria,
la presente/futura disponibilità di materie prime
dipende principalmente dall’effettivo impegno che
i soggetti interessati sono disposti a dedicare
(opportunity cost paradigm).
Geologia  Geologia + Economia + Politica
5
Modello di meccanismo di
equilibrio nei mercati delle
materie prime
MARKET EQUILIBRIUM t1
MARKET-BASED
PRODUCTION-BASED
Depletion
Natural disaster
Civil Unrest
Environment. Restrictions
(socially driven scarcity)
Industry and
Producer Responses
LOWER CUT-OFF
GRADE
EXPLORATION
New major consumer
SUPPLY DISRUPTION
GOVT-BASED
SCARCITY
Embargo
PRICE INCREASE
Market and
Consumer Responses
SUBSTITUTION
In consumption
GOVT INCENTIVES
AND INITIATIVES
REOPEN OLD AND
DEVELOP NEW MINES
DEMATERIALIZATION
Increase efficiency
Conservation
RESEARCH
Innovation
Technological Change
Previously Uneconomic
Previously Infeasible
Reuse, Recycle,
Remanufacture
DIVERSIFY SOURCES
ENHANCE DELIVERY
AND DISTRIBUTION
SUBSTITUTION
In manufacturing
UPWARD PRESSURE
ON SUPPLY
Market response to scarcity
model for minerals
(Shields et al. 2007)
INCREASED USAGE OF
SECONDARY MATERIALS
DOWNWARD PRESSURE
ON DEMAND
MARKET EQUILIBRIUM t2
6
Scarcity caused by Restrictions to Flows
•Situational scarcity (locational)
•Political scarcity
•Social scarcity
•Other types of scarcity
7
• Critical Raw Materials (EU): when the risks of
supply shortage and their impacts on the
economy are higher compared with most of the
other raw materials (REE are critical in the EU).
• Critical Raw Materials (US): importance in use,
availability and in some cases dependency to
national security and economy.
• Strategic Materials: whenever their location is
concentrated in vulnerable or unfriendly places
and when they are essential to production of
military hardware.
“The Rare Earth Elements are as strategic a commodity as crude oil or food, and will be for the rest of this century”.
ABN AMRO Geopolitical Analysis, 2011
8
Criticality Matrix
US NRC, 2008
9
Some selected Critical raw materials for the US
Short term and medium term criticality of some REEs (US Department of Energy, 2010)
10
Critical raw materials for the EU
Based on a criticality methodology, calculations are made regarding the
economic importance and supply risk of the 41 materials.
11
Resources ‐ REE in the world (not RARE)
•
•
•
•
Global reserves: 110 million tonnes (est.)
Global production: 133,600 tonnes (est.)
China produces approximately 97% - 99.8% of global REEs*.
Currently there is no mining of REEs in US** and EU.
Global REEs reserves by country (2011) * 83% from Baiyunebo mine (35 Mt reserves)
** Mountain Pass (CA) closed in 2002
Resources ‐ REE in the world
13
Relevant Importance of REEs ‐Trade
Major Importers of REEs (2008) Imports
Share of imports from China
EU 27
23,013 t
90 %
USA
20,663 t
91 %
JAPAN
34,330 t
91 %
AUSTRIA
24%
FRANCE
38%
The share of European countries in terms of the total imports of REEs from outside EU‐27(2008) BELGIUM
2%
SPAIN
2%
ITALY
2%
14
GERMANY
8%
UNITED KINGDOM
8%
NETHERLANDS
16%
China’s demand for REEs was estimated (*) that will reach its production level by the year 2012
 In 2008, China started to quote its REEs exports
 In 2010 China’s REEs exports rates were decreased by 29% compared to 2008
 China has been restricting the supply of its REEs exports since 2004 at average rate of 13% per year 15
Relevant Importance of REEs ‐ Geopolitics
“There is oil in the Middle East; there is rare earth in China” Deng Xiaoping, Chinese leader (1992)
CHINA
FORMER USSR
In China, the development of REEs mining and industry is considered to have a relationship to modern military technology.
REEs were considered a national secret and very limited information was released due to their application to USSR’s defense systems The main effort of China’s search for global resources is to confine additional REEs from elsewhere to maintain economic growth.
16
Events Related to REEs (2010‐2012)
Global Geopolitical Year
2010
2012
Country/Organization
Event China – Japan Governments
China announced retaliation measures against Japan (ban/embargo of Chinese REEs exports to Japan)
Columbia University, School of International & Public Affairs (SIPA)
Creation of academic course specifically dedicated to REEs research (3 academic credits). Full Course Title: “Citigroup, Global Commodities Research: Political and Economic Impact of Rare Earths”, Course Number: SIPA900.032
German – Mongolian Governments
First time visit of German Chancellor to Mongolia. Reason for visit: REEs trade agreement. EU – Japanese – US ‐ Chinese Governments
US, Japan and the EU Governments filed a case against China at the World Trade Organization challenging its restrictions on REEs exports.
US Government
US President Barack Obama accused China of breaking agreed trade rules on REEs during a Press Conference at the White House.
Reports/Documents Related to REEs (2010‐12)
Global Geopolitical Year
2010
Country/Organization
Report / Document (*) US Air War College, US Air Force
“Sustainability of Strategic Minerals in Southern Africa and Potential Conflicts and Partnerships”
US Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (Non‐profit Think Tank)
Report: “China’s Rare Earth Elements Industry:
What Can the West Learn?”
US Army, Foreign Military Studies Office
Report: “China’s Ace in the Hole: Rare Earth Elements”
The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS ‐ Independent Think Tank ‐
Netherlands)
Report: “Rare Earth Elements and Strategic Minerals Policy”
Organization for Economic Cooperation Report: “Export Restrictions on Strategic Raw and Development (OECD)
Materials and their Impact on Trade and Global Supply”
2011
US National Defense University, Joint Forces Staff College
Master thesis: “Mining and Exploitation of Rare Earth Elements in Africa as an Engagement Strategy in US Africa Command”
US Army College
Master thesis: “An Integrated Rare Earth Elements Supply Chain Strategy”
ABN AMRO (Financial Institution, Netherlands)
Report: “Geopolitical Analysis: Rare Earth Elements Risk Analysis”
(*) all documents can be freely downloaded
REEs Initiatives in US and EU (2010‐2012) ‐ Regulatory Initiatives Year
2010
US



2011









2012
EU
US Congress, House bill: “H.R. 6160, Rare Earths and Critical Materials Revitalization Act”
US Congress, House bill: “H.R. 4866, the Rare Earths Supply‐ Chain Technology and Resources Transformation Act”
US Congress, Senate proposal: “S. 3521, Rare Earths Supply Technology and Resources Transformation Act”
US Congress, Proposed House and Senate of defence authorization bill: “P.L. 111‐84, the Fiscal Year 2010 National Defence Authorization Act”
US Congress, House bill: “H.R. 5136, the Fiscal Year 2011 National Defence Authorization Act”
US Congress, House bill: “H.R. 1388, Rare Earths Supply Chain Technology and Resources Transformation Act of 2011 (RESTART Act)”
US Congress, House bill: “H.R. Rare Earths and Critical Materials Revitalization Act of 2011”
US Congress, House bill: “H.R. 2184 Rare Earths Policy Task Force and Materials Act”
US Congress, House bill: “H.R. 1314: RARE Act of 2011”
US Congress, Senate proposal: “Critical Minerals Policy Act of 2011”
US Congress, Senate proposal: “S. 1113 Critical Minerals Policy Act of 2011”
US Congress, House bill: “Energy Critical Elements Renewal Act of 2011”
European Commission, Proposal: “Innovation Partnership to Overcome Europe’s Raw Materials Shortage”
REEs Initiatives in US and EU (2010‐2012)
Other Initiatives YEAR
US
EU
2010
 US Government Accountability Office, Report: “Rare Earth Materials in Defence Supply Chain”,  US Congressional Research Service, Report: “Rare Earth Elements: The Global Supply Chain”  US Department of Energy, Report: “Critical Materials Strategy”
 US Department of Interior, Geological Survey (USGS), Report: “The Principal Rare Earth Deposits of the United States –A Summary of Domestic Deposits and a Global Perspective”
 European Commission, Enterprise and Industry, Report: “Critical Raw Materials for the EU”
2011
 US Congressional Research Service, Report: “REEs in National Defence: Background, Oversight Issues, and Options for Congress”
 US Congressional Research Service, Report: “REEs: The Global Supply Chain”
 US Department of Defence, National Defence University, Joint Forces Staff College, Master’s Thesis: “Mining and Exploitation of REEs in Africa as an Engagement Strategy in US Africa Command”
 US Department of Defense, US Army War College, Master’s Thesis: “An Integrated Rare Earth Elements Supply Chain Strategy”
 European Commission, Joint Research Center (JRC), Institute for Energy and Transport, Report: “Critical Metals in Strategic Energy Technologies”
20
 Green Party of the European Parliament, OKO Institute, Report: “Study on Rare Earths and Their Recycling”
in collaborazione con
Grazie per l’attenzione
Gian Andrea Blengini
Politecnico di Torino / CNR-IGAG
Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24 - 10129 Torino, Italy
[email protected]
tel. +39 011 090 7715
Le diapositive 8, 10, 14‐20 sono adattate da:
Sotiris N. Kamenopoulos and Zach Agioutantis (2012). Rare Earth Elements: A Review and Analysis of their Multi‐dimensional Global Importance. 23rd Annual General Meeting of the Society of Mining Professors, July 12‐16, Wroclaw, Poland