6. Aubin-IT [modalità compatibilità]

Transcript

6. Aubin-IT [modalità compatibilità]
3 luglio 2014
La grande distribuzione alimentare in Europa
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
Europe
Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+
Europa: chi vince e chi perde?
Distribuzione alimentare: globalizzazione o
localizzazione?
Internet: minaccia o opportunità?
Edouard Aubin
[email protected]
+44 (0)20 7425 3160
Francois Halconruy
[email protected]
+44 (0)20 7425 5207
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the
objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to NASD/NYSE restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and
trading securities held by a research analyst account.
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
COOP Italia
July 3, 2014
I migliori in Europa
2
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
COOP Italia
July 3, 2014
I migliori in Europa:
1.
I discount continuano a guadagnare quote di mercato
in gran parte d’Europa
2.
Più in generale, il settore è sempre più polarizzato,
soprattutto nel Regno Unito (tendenza presente
anche negli USA)
3.
Si registra un passaggio dagli ipermercati ai
convenience stores dovuto alle tendenze sociodemografiche e all’on-line
4.
Gli operatori privati tendono ad avere risultati migliori
delle società quotate
3
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
COOP Italia
July 3, 2014
Regno Unito: la polarizzazione del mercato è più veloce che in molti altri paesi europei
Le 4 grandi società quotate (The Big 4), hanno perso le
quote più consistenti di mercato
A nostro parere, questo è dovuto al fatto che i Big 4 sono di
fatto un oligopolio volto ad aumentare il suo margine lordo
Food Inflation
Big 4 (public cos.)
125
-210
118.6
120
Others (private)
115
10
113.0
110
105
Waitrose (private)
20
105.4
-200
-150
-100
-50
00
Nota: evoluzione delle quote di mercato (TTM)
50
100
150
Fontre: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research
Negli ultimi trimestri si è accelerata la perdita di quote di
mercato dei Big 4 …
Big 4 Sales Growth (Total Till Roll) vs Market Sales
Growth (Total Grocers) 3MMA
+2.0%
+1.0%
+0.0%
-1.0%
Jun-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Apr-07
Aug-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jul-08
Nov-08
Feb-09
Jun-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Apr-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
-2.0%
-3.0%
Fonte: Kantar Worldpanel, Morgan Stanley Research
Apr-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Oct-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
France
Oct-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Oct-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Oct-09
UK
200
OECD - Europe
Fonte: OCSE, Morgan Stanley Research
… mentre Aldi e Lidl conquistano sempre più velocemente
quote di mercato
Aldi + Lidl - market share (rolling 52wk,
grocery only)
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
Feb-04
Aug-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Dec-05
May-06
Nov-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Mar-08
Aug-08
Feb-09
Jul-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Nov-10
May-11
Oct-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Feb-13
Aug-13
Jan-14
-250
180
Apr-09
95
Hard Discount
Jan-09
100
Fonte: Kantar Worldpanel, Morgan Stanley Research
4
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
COOP Italia
July 3, 2014
Spagna & Belgio: I discount guadagnano inequivocabilmente quote di mercato
Spagna: Mercadona, DIA e Lidl guadagnano quote…
Other regional players
-140
Anche in Belgio i discount guadagnano quote…
Listed players
(Carrefour & Delhaize)
Other national players
(Carrefour, Auchan, etc.)
-70
Others
10
0
Soft discount (Colruyt)
Hard discount (DIA, Lidl)
10
50
Hard discount (Aldi & Lidl)
Soft discount (Mercadona)
60
80
-80
-160
-120
-80
-40
0
40
80
Nota: evoluzione delle quote di mercato(TTM) Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research
…continuamente dal 2000
30%
Hypermarkets
-20
0
28.8%
Nota: evoluzione delle quote di mercato(TTM)
25.9%
24%
40%
24.6%
22%
31%
22.8%
19.1%
17.3%
16%
20.8%
19.7% 19.7%
16.9% 16.8%
16.9% 17.1%
16.3%
18.2%
15.8%
80
Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research
33%
35%
35%
2003
2004
37%
38%
2005
2006
40%
44%
46%
42%
43%
45%
42%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
20%
15.2%
16.1%
13.3%
15.0%
14%
60
30%
21.9%
19.0%
40
50%
27.6%
20%
20
% market share - Discounters
Soft & Hard Discount
26%
12%
-40
… trend che dura da oltre un decennio
28%
18%
-60
120
14.7% 14.6%
14.3% 14.1%
10%
11.5%
0%
10%
2002
2007
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
2001
Fonte: Kantar, Beragua
Nota: i discount comprendono Colruyt, Aldi, Lidl, Intermarché, Red Market and Profi/Smatch.
Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research
5
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
COOP Italia
July 3, 2014
Germania: crescono i discount e I convenience store. Francia: i discount perdono
quote
Germania: continua l’ascesa di Aldi e Lidl
Francia: il canale discount perde quote
Lidl & Schwarz Group
60
Hard discount
Aldi
-60
15
Edeka
Listed groups (Carrefour, Casino, etc.)
10
Rewe Group
-35
-20
Private groups
(Auchan, Cora, etc.)
Metro Group
-10
-30
Others
Independents (Leclerc, etc.)
-35
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
105
70
-80
Nota: evoluzione delle quote di mercato(TTM) Fonte: dati interni, Planet Retail, Morgan Stanley Research
Germania: predominio delle cooperative e dei discount
-60
-40
-20
Nota: evoluzione delle quote di mercato(TTM to 18 May 2014)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Fonte: dati interni, Kantar, Morgan Stanley Research
Francia: gli operatori tradizionali hanno abbassato I prezzi
115
Others
18.2
Monoprix
Edeka
25.7
110
Casino
Metro
Group
6.7
105
Auchan
100
Fonte: dati interni, Planet Retail, Morgan Stanley Research
1H-2013
1H-2012
1H-2011
1H-2010
1H-2009
1H-2008
1H-2007
1H-2006
1H-2005
1H-2004
Leclerc
1H-2003
90
1H-2002
Carrefour
1H-2001
Rewe
Group
16.0
Schwarz
Group
18.5
95
1H-2000
Aldi
14.9
Géant
Fonte: Linéaires, Morgan Stanley Research
6
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
COOP Italia
July 3, 2014
Dal globale al locale:
Gli operatori europei della distribuzione alimentare si
ridimensionano e ci sembra improbabile che un nuovo
operatore si inserisca sul mercato italiano
7
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
COOP Italia
July 3, 2014
In Europa quasi tutti i distributori si stanno ridimensionando…
CARREFOUR: attualmente presente in 9 paesi, dai 23 in
fase di massima espansione nel 2002
CASINO: il ridimensionamento è quasi completato con la
società che opera in 6 paesi
Number of countries operated in
Numbers of countries operated in
11 11 11 11
9
18 18
17
17 17
18
9
8
8
7
15
6
AHOLD: dopo un periodo di rapida espansione negli anni 90,
attualmente la società opera solo in 3 paesi
Number of foreign countries operated in
18
6
6
6
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
2
1998
2
1997
1
1996
1
1995
9
1994
9
Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research
17
6
5
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
10
1994
9
8
17
2013
16
21
2014e
14
15
20
22
2014e
19
21
2012
23 23
Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research
DIA: la società opera in meno paesi dopo lo scoporo da
Carrefour nel 2011
Number of foreign countries operated in
7
17 17
6
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
14 14
5
3
1995
1996
1998
3
4
5
5
4
Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research
2014e
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
3
2000
3
1999
2
3
1994
4
2014e
4
2013
4
2012
2006
3
2011
2005
3
2010
3
2008
3
2007
3
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
5
1995
1994
4
2009
9
4
1997
12
Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research
8
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
COOP Italia
July 3, 2014
…e Tesco e Metro potrebbero cedere parti dell’attività
DELHAIZE: negli ultimi 20 anni la società ha attraversato due
periodi di espansione/contrazione…
JERONIMO MARTINS: l’unica grande società di distribuzione
alimentare ad essere cresciuta negli ultimi anni in Europa
Number of foreign countries operated in
9
8
9
8
8
Number of foreign countries operated in
9
8
3
7
1
1
Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research estimates (e)
TESCO: la società non segue più una politica aggressiva di
espansione e potrebbe decidere di cedere attività
2001
1
1
1
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
32
32
31
31
2014e
2000
1
2013
1999
1
2012
11
9
8
1
METRO: la cessione di attività non strategiche potrebbe
continuare visti i vincoli di bilancio e la necessità di operare
in meno paesi
10 10
8
1
Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research estimates (e)
12
11
8
2
Number of foreign countries operated in
13 13 13 13
12 12 12
1
2012
1
2011
2001
1996
2000
1995
1999
0
1998
0
1997
0
1994
2013
2014e
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1
Number of foreign countries operated in
2
4
2010
4
2011
4
2009
4
2008
4
2007
4
2006
4
2005
4
2004
4
2013
6
2003
4
3
2002
4
3
2014e
6
3
24
22
20
7
6
5
3
Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research estimates (e)
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
2014e
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
1998
1997
1996
1993
1995
1
1994
1
1992
2
Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research estimates (e)
9
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
COOP Italia
July 3, 2014
In generale, i risultati all’estero negli ultimi dieci anni sono stati deludenti
TESCO Europa dell’Est: risultati lordi e netti sotto pressione
5.7%
5.8%
5.6%
5.4%
5.7%
5.8%
+12%
3.5%
4%
DELHAIZE US - Underyling EBIT margin
+8%
5.6%
2.6%
0%
+0%
-2%
-4%
-4%
-8%
LFL sales change in %
5.6%
5.3%
5.2%
5.1%
5.4%
5.5%
5.6%
5.4% 5.4%
4.8%
4.7%
4.5% 4.6%
4.4%
3.8% 3.7%
Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research
Food CPI
Carrefour LFL
Lianhua
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
5%
Sun Art LFL
Wumart
0%
EBIT margin as a % of sales
+15%
Source: Kantar Worldpanel (4 w/e 18th Aug 2013), Morgan Stanley Research
Anche i distributori alimentari coreani hanno avuto difficoltà in
Cina
CARREFOUR Cina: deludenti le vendite LFL
+20%
2005
LFL (reported)
2004
LFL (deflated)
2013/14
2003
2012/13
2002
2011/12
2001
Trading profit margin
2010/11
1999
2009/10
1998
2008/09
1997
2007/08
1996
2006/07
1995
-12%
-6%
1994
EBIT margin
5.0%
+4%
2%
5.8%
5.7%
2000
6%
DELHAIZE USA: margine operativo lordo ai minimi degli
ultimi 20 anni
+10%
+5%
+0%
-5%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
-10%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Company Data, Morgan Stanley Research
E-mart
Lotte
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates
10
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
COOP Italia
July 3, 2014
Quattro ragioni per spiegare i risultati deludenti: (1) troppi ipermercati
TESCO: quasi l’80% dello spazio di vendita all’estero è
costituito da grandi ipermercati (> 5000 m2)
Tesco International - % of total space in Hypermarket format
100%
In molti paesi del mondo il tasso di fertilità è crollato
3.5
Average number of children per women
3.0
100%
92%
92%
90%
2.5
83%
78%
77%
2.0
63%
1.5
1.0
24%
0.5
China
Hungary S. Korea
Turkey
Slovakia Thailand
Czech
Republic
Poland
Korea
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
Poland
Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research
L’edilizia “verticale” imperante in molti paesi si è rivelata un
problema per il grandi ipermercati
% Households living in flats
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
Ireland
70%
Fonte: Euromonitor, Morgan Stanley Research
Questa è una delle ragioni per cui I nuclei familiari sono
sempre meno numerosi
Average number of people per household
5.5
5.0
52%
57%
54%
4.5
4.0
3.5
27%
3.0
2.5
14%
UK
Hungary
Poland
Thailand
Korea
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
2.0
2002
Malaysia
1979
1977
0.0
Turkey
South Korea
Fonte: Eurostat, UN, Morgan Stanley Research
Note: dati relativi al2010
Poland
Turkey
Fonte: Euromonitor, Morgan Stanley Research
11
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
COOP Italia
July 3, 2014
Quattro ragioni per per spiegare i risultati deludenti: (2) CEO stranieri e/o in carica
per brevi periodi, (3) Nessuna presenza nel canale discount
TESCO International: il mandato medio dei CEO è di 41 mesi
e oltre il 70% dei CEO sono espatriati
Le filiali quotate dei distributori internazionali al dettaglio
hanno avuto risultati significativamente migliori da Gennaio
del2502008
Index
MSCI World Food Retail
165
200
125
150
58
41
100
Number of months working for the Number of months as CEO of the
division
division
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
50
Listed subsidiaries
Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research
Fonte: Datastream, Morgan Stanley Research
In molti paesi dell’Europa dell’Est il canale discount
rappresenta oltre il 100% delle vendite totali di grocery
18
Discount channel market
(% of grocery sales)
Tesco
Slovakia
Czech Republic
Hungary
Poland
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2012
2013
2014
2015
Fonti: dati interni, Planet Retail, Morgan Stanley Research estimates
12
47%
6%
Ahold
1%
Colruyt
0%
Sainsbury
0%
Morrison
Nestlé India (Coffee)
Unilever India (skin care)
Nestlé Argentina (baby…
Unilever Indonesia…
Danone Russia (yogurt)
Danone USA (yogurt)
0%
Unilever India (toothpaste)
Nestlé India (chocolate)
Walmart Mexico
Casino Colombia
Delhaize Serbia
Tesco Hungary
Carrefour Argentina
Casino Brazil
Walmart Interna.
Carrefour Interna.
DIA Interna.
Tesco Interna.
9%
Walmart Brazil
Tesco Malaysia
Walmart China
Tesco Poland
Carrefour China
Tesco South Korea
Ahold Czech Rep.
Carrefour Poland
Delhaize Romania
Tesco China
Tesco Turkey
DIA Brazil
Delhaize Indonesia
Ahold NL
Tesco UK
Delhaize Belgium
Carrefour France
Walmart US
Jeronimo Martins Portugal
Casino France
13
COOP Italia
July 3, 2014
Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research
Casino Interna.
13% 12% 12% 12% 10%
Ahold Intern.
Casino Thailand
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
23%
Jeronimo Poland
Tesco Thailand
Jeronimo Martins Poland
Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research estimates (e)
Nestlé C&W Africa
Differenze del ROIC lordo tra distributori alimentari e
produttori del settore alimentare /HPC nei mercati emergenti
34%
28% 26%
Nestlé Malaysia
90%
58%
Nestlé India
Unilever Nigeria
100% 94% 91%
63%
Unilever Indonesia
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
0%
10%
Colgate India
Unilever India
Carrefour Brazil
90%
8%
Delhaize
Unilever India (coffee)
100%
22%
Tesco
Danone Russia (yogurt)
80%
Dia
Unilever Inidia (shampoo)
70%
27% 26%
Carrefour
Colgate India (toothpaste)
60%
30%
Metro
Colgate India (tooth brush)
Unilever Indonesia (soaps)
50%
Casino
Nestlé India (instant…
Unilever Indonesia (skin…
40%
59% 58%
Jeronimo Martins
Unilever Indonesia…
Nestle Brazil (baby food)
30%
Reckitt
Imperial Tobacco
Nestlé India (baby food)
Nestlé Brazil (milk formula)
20%
37% 36%
35%
L'Oreal
0%
Nestlé
Diageo
10%
40% 40%
Beiersdorf
Quattro ragioni per spiegare I risultati deludenti: (4) pochissimi distributori
alimentari con sede in Europa hanno conquistato quote di mercato dominanti
all’estero
51% 51%
42% 42%
Henkel
Carlserg
28%
Fonte: Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Nota: la tabella mostra la % stimata di vendite del gruppo nei mercati emergenti per ogni operatore
Danone
Heineken
Le quote di mercato all’estero dei distributori alimentari internazionali sono molto inferiori a quelle del settore alimentare/HPC
54%
AB InBev
La presenza nei mercati emergenti cambia molto tra
distribuzione alimentare/HPC/produttori di bevande
74%
63%
BAT
Unilever
Sonae
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
SAB Miller
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
COOP Italia
July 3, 2014
Internet: minaccia o
opportunità?
14
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
COOP Italia
July 3, 2014
Gli ipermercati sembrano in difficoltà
In Europa la presenza di ipermercati varia
considerevolmente tra i grandi distributori
42%
Nel Sud dell’Europa la percentuale di vendite online di generi
non alimentari è ancora ridotta…
18.6%
Estimated hypermarket selling space as % of total selling space
18.5%
% Online sales in total non-food sales (2013)
16.5%
38%
36%
32%
13.4%
11.9%
Note: Hypermarkets are defined as stores exceeding 60k
sq ft of selling space and where non-food accounts for
more than 20% of sales
14%
11.3%
9.3%
8.3%
4.5%
3.5%
4%
0%
Tesco
(Group)
Carrefour
(France)
Carrefour Tesco (UK)
(Group)
Asda
Sainsbury Jeronimo
Martins
0%
0%
Morrison
Delhaize
Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research
Fonte: Euromonitor, Planet Retail, Morgan Stanley Research
…ma sembra che il Sud dell’Europa stia recuperando in
fretta
Interest for “Amazon” in Spain according to Google Trends
Fonte: Google, Morgan Stanley Research
Nota: la curva indica quante ricerche sono state fatte per un termine particolare,
relativo al numero totale di ricerche su Google nel tempo
15
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
COOP Italia
July 3, 2014
Gli ipermercati sembrano in difficoltà
L’acquisto online di grocery è ad oggi un mercato di massa
solo in Francia e nel Regno Unito
Il metodo “click & collect” influisce negativamente sulle
vendite non alimentari negli ipermercati...
Non-food sales YoY evolution in
hypermarkets/supermarkets with or without drive
Online penetration in Grocery (2013)
4.9%
H1 2011
H2 2011
3.8%
-1.2%
Spain
Portugal
US
0.9%
0.9%
UK
0.4%
France
0.3%
Belgium
0.3%
NL
0.2%
Germany
-3.0%
-8.4%
-9.4%
Stores with "drive" unit
Fonte: Kantar, Mintel, Morgan Stanley Research
Stores without a "drive" unit
Fonte: Nielsen, Morgan Stanley Research
…e su quelle alimentari
87%
cannibalization
59%
cannibalization
20%
cannibalization
Drive accounts for
>0-1% total FMCG turnover
Drive accounts for
>5-6% total turnover
Drive accounts for
>11-12% total turnover
Source: Iri (for Ateliers du Drive), Linéaires, Morgan Stanley Research
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STOCK RATINGS
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Global Stock Ratings Distribution
(as of May 31, 2014)
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Coverage Universe
Investment Banking Clients (IBC)
Stock Rating
% of
% of
% of
Category
Count Total Count Total IBC Rating Category
Overweight/Buy
1065
35%
360
38%
34%
Equal-weight/Hold
1307
43%
451
48%
35%
Not-Rated/Hold
110
4%
24
3%
22%
Underweight/Sell
538
18%
105
11%
20%
Total
3,020
940
Data include common stock and ADRs currently assigned ratings. Investment Banking Clients are companies from whom Morgan Stanley received investment banking compensation in the
last 12 months.
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