CARLO VALLOTTO RESEARCH www.metalli

CARLO VALLOTTO RESEARCH
www.metalli-preziosi.it
GOLD PRICE TODAY: (London, time 09.00) 30/04/13
Usd/Oz
Eur/Kg
Spot Gold
$1.473/Oz
€36.175/Kg
Spot Silver
$24,32/Oz
€596/Kg
Eur/Usd
1,30
WTI Crude
Oil:
$92
Gold /Silver
Ratio
61,18
GOLD
FIXING
Yesterday
AM
USD
GBP
EUR
1,472.50
947.80
1,125.51
PM
1,467.50
946.41
1,121.26
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INTERNATIONAL SITUATION: FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS MARKET
The attention of investors this week, will be catalyzed by various macroeconomic events. In particular, there will be
three major events, beginning on Wednesday with the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FED), the
meeting of the European Central Bank on Thursday and Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate on Friday.
The meeting of the Fed in all likelihood, will have a minor effect, since the U.S. economy has shown some signs of
slowing in recent months it seems unlikely that the massive asset purchase plan the Fed's $ 85 billion per month (QE3 )
can be changed as well as the interest rates will remain unchanged within a range between 0 and 0.25%.
On the contrary, it remains far more uncertain outlook on the ECB, the flaky, or rather, non-existent economic recovery
of the Old Continent combined with slender inflation expectations lead to expectations of a possible cut in the
refinancing rate by 25 bps basis from the current 0.75% to 0.50% (the deposit rate, that what the ECB remuneration to
banks for parking overnight liquidity, should instead remain at zero).
This possible move would be unfavorable to the listing of the European currency and instead push up the price of gold.
But in reference to data on U.S. unemployment, beyond the data itself difficult to predict, it will be important to focus on
a possible further reduction from the current 7.6%, which would translate to stronger U.S. dollar Quite the contrary, a
reading higher than expected in the short will be penalized for the same.
=========================================================================================
MACROECONOMIC DATA TODAY
Tuesday ( Milan, Time)
11:00
EUR
11:00
EUR
15:45
USD
16:00
USD
Carlo Vallotto
www.metalli-preziosi.it
CPI (YoY)
Unemployment Rate
Chicago PMI
CB Consumer Confidence
Office/mobile +39 333 4411518
[email protected]
[email protected]
CARLO VALLOTTO RESEARCH
www.metalli-preziosi.it
========================================================================================
TECHNICAL SITUATION: OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS
Long Term GOLD/EUR-oz
LONG TIME
NEUTRAL
SHORT TIME
DOWN
RESISTANCE €/kg
SUPPORT €/kg
€38.700
€35.000/33.500
€37.500
€31.800/30.500
€36.500
€29.000/28.000
LONG TREND Weekly Analysis GOLD/EUR-kg
The substantial recovery of the gold price, we are witnessing, is typical consequence of the phases of a sharp decline
caused by the so-called panic-selling.
The technical picture remains deteriorated and the structure remains bearish. Now you will need a period to settle again
because the graphical configuration, since you have created a large segment of the congestion that could last for a
lengthy period.
We remain in line with the previous analysis. Making projections, now would be misleading: we prefer to follow the trend
considering a range of pricing options ranging from € 36.500/37.000 (upper) and € 32,500 (bottom). A break of this last
value would push prices towards the next point of support area € 31.000/30.500
SHORT TREND intraday GOLD/EUR-kg
Remains still the gold price in a price range between € 35,500 and € 36,500 where the two pass key values of the
Fibonacci retracements.
The technical structure in the short term, has designed a bullish channel that brought prices, close to levels just
mentioned. In the very short as we maintain strength while € 37,500 € 35,000 as a support.
Short:
R 37.500
S 35.000
Carlo Vallotto
www.metalli-preziosi.it
Office/mobile +39 333 4411518
[email protected]
[email protected]
CARLO VALLOTTO RESEARCH
www.metalli-preziosi.it
ShortTerm GOLD/EUR-oz
PERFORMANCE GOLD/Eur-gr
€ Euro
1 giorno
Average 30 gg
Average 2013
Average 52
weeks
Min
2013
Max 2013
1 kg
36,207.68
40,166.22
40,324.44
40,116.98
41,571.63
33,613.24
1 gr
36.21
40.17
40.32
40.12
41.57
33.61
PERFORMANCE GOLD/Eur-oz
5 Months
Data
Open
last
Difference
% Difference
Volume
04/01/13
1,248.40 1,252.14 1,013.07 1,126.12
-118.94
-9.55%
76,773
03/01/13
1,209.60 1,260.04 1,198.01 1,245.06
+35.56
+2.94%
163,374
02/01/13
1,225.10 1,258.11 1,171.27 1,209.50
-15.28
-1.25%
62,594
01/01/13
1,268.90 1,285.59 1,220.51 1,224.78
-45.02
-3.55%
74,875
12/01/12
1,320.90 1,327.55 1,236.83 1,269.80
-50.22
-3.80%
60,495
Carlo Vallotto
www.metalli-preziosi.it
Max
Min
Office/mobile +39 333 4411518
[email protected]
[email protected]
CARLO VALLOTTO RESEARCH
www.metalli-preziosi.it
RIPRODUZIONE RISERVATA
-Dott. Carlo Vallotto
Responsabile Consulenza Metalli Preziosi
Website www.metalli-preziosi.it
Office/Mobile:+39 3334411518
Skype: Carlo Vallotto
DISCLAIMER: Le indicazioni contenute in questo messaggio non costituiscono in alcun modo delle raccomandazioni di acquisto o vendita: esse rappresentano una libera
interpretazione dei mercati basata sull’analisi tecnica. Lo scrivente declina ogni responsabilità da perdite derivanti dalle attività intraprese sulla base di queste analisi.
********* Avvertenze Legali *********
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all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading, and seek advice
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Carlo Vallotto
www.metalli-preziosi.it
Office/mobile +39 333 4411518
[email protected]
[email protected]