Associazione Italiana del Private Equity, Venture Capital e Private

AIFI
Associazione Italiana del Private Equity, Venture Capital e Private Debt
Milano, 18 aprile 2016
CIRCOLARE N. 21/2016
ASSOCIATI/ADERENTI AIFI
Oggetto: atti convegno Zurigo
Cari soci,
si è svolta mercoledì scorso la terza edizione del convegno di Zurigo, per presentare il
mercato italiano del Private Equity e Private Debt agli investitori svizzeri.
L’evento, organizzato con la collaborazione dell’Ambasciata d'Italia a Berna e di PwC, ha
visto la partecipazione di 15 operatori che hanno contribuito, con interessanti interventi, a
presentare i dati del nostro settore che vi invio in allegato, insieme alla presentazione del
Professor Cipolletta e alla rassegna stampa dell’evento.
Cordiali saluti
Anna Gervasoni
Via P iet r o M as ca g ni ,7 - 2 0 1 2 2 Mi la no
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W eb s it e: www. a i fi .it e - ma il : i n fo @a i fi. it
Economic outlook and key market
drivers of the Italian economy
Innocenzo Cipolletta, AIFI Chairman
13th April 2016, Zurich
11
A European comparison in terms of GDP
Gross domestic product (2010 = 100)
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
United Kingdom
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Note: gross domestic product, current prices, absolute values, chain linked – reference year 2010
Source: IMF
2017
2018
2019
2020
22
The Italian economy in the next years: macroeconomic indicators
% of GDP
GDP (growth rate)
Private consumption
Total investment
Export
Import
Source
2014
2015
2016
2017
IMF
-0.3
0.8
1.0
1.1
MEF
-0.4
0.8
1.2
1.4
CER
-0.3
0.8
1.1
0.9
IMF
0.6
0.9
1.0
1.1
MEF
0.3
0.9
1.4
1.4
CER
0.6
0.9
1.2
0.4
IMF
-3.4
0.8
1.9
2.6
MEF
-3.3
0.8
2.2
3.0
CER
-3.4
0.8
1.9
2.6
MEF
2.6
4.3
1.6
3.8
CER
3.1
4.3
3.9
3.2
IMF
2.7
4.4
4.8
3.5
MEF
1.8
6.0
2.5
3.8
CER
3.2
6.0
4.2
1.4
IMF
1.8
5.1
4.0
3.3
Source: IMF (April 2016, Export and Import October 2015), MEF – Ministero dell’Economia e delle Finanze (April 2016), Centro
Europa Ricerche (March 2016)
33
%
Contributions to GDP growth in Italy
Private
consumption
Public
consumption
Investments
Inventories
Net export
Source: Centro Europa Ricerche
44
Italian household income and savings
Household disposable income
(Left axis)
Household consumption expenditure
(Left axis)
Household propensity to save
(Right axis, %)
106
12
105
104
10
103
08
102
101
06
100
99
04
98
02
97
96
Note: Household disposable income and consumption expenditure in absolute values, chain linked – reference period Q1 2010,
seasonally adjusted data
Source: ISTAT
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015
Q4 2014
Q3 2014
Q2 2014
Q1 2014
Q4 2013
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013
Q4 2012
Q3 2012
Q2 2012
Q1 2012
Q4 2011
Q3 2011
Q2 2011
Q1 2011
Q4 2010
Q3 2010
Q2 2010
Q1 2010
00
55
The Italian industrial system
Industrial production index
94
93
92
91
90
89
02/14
03/14
04/14
05/14
06/14
07/14
08/14
09/14
10/14
11/14
12/14
01/15
02/15
03/15
04/15
05/15
06/15
07/15
08/15
09/15
10/15
11/15
12/15
01/16
02/16
88
Note: seasonally adjusted index, chain linked – reference
period 2010
10
35
5
30
0
25
-5
20
-10
20
-15
15
% of value added
Real growth rate (%)
EBITDA margin and investments
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Investment in machinery
and equipment (left axis)
EBITDA (net of taxes, right axis)
Source: ISTAT, Centro Europa Ricerche
66
Leading manufacturers in world production (2013)
Rank
Country
% on world manufacturing
% on world population
1
China
30.3
19.1
2
United States
14.3
4.4
3
Japan
7.0
1.8
4
Germany
5.4
1.2
5
Korea
3.6
0.7
6
India
3.0
17.5
7
Brazil
2.8
2.8
8
Italy
2.6
0.9
9
France
2.6
0.9
10
Russian Federation
2.2
2.0
Source: Confindustria
77
The share of SME employment in Europe
87%
76% 77%
63%
66%
64% 64% 65%
67% 67% 67% 68% 68% 68%
70% 70% 70% 71% 71%
78%
79% 79% 80%
82% 83%
73% 73%
54%
Note: share of SME employment in total employment
Source: European Commission
88
The startup ecosystem in Italy: the adoption of Startup Manifesto
5,415
Innovative startups
Darker countries have adopted most of
the Startup Manifesto recommendations;
lighter countries should do more work.
3,000
Business angels
96
Incubators and
business accelerators
43
Technology parks
20
Venture capital
players
49
Start up competitions
Source: Camera di Commercio, SiamoSoci, Osservatori.net Politecnico Milano, AIFI, European Digital Forum
Crowdsourcing Network
99
The most important Italy’s reforms in recent years
TAXATION and
PUBLIC FINANCE
BUSINESS
ENVIRONMENT
INSTITUTIONS
•
•
•
•
• Tax wedge reduction for low-/medium-income
employees
• Corporate tax (IRAP rate) reduction
• Cuts on property tax (IMU)
• Comprehensive programme to streamline public
spending
• Reforms of the banking sector (regarding cooperative
banks, foundations, non performing loans, …)
• Jobs Act for the labour market
• Reform of the civil justice system
Simplification of the level of government
New law for general elections
New law-making process (acceleration of approval times)
Reform of public administration
Source: MEF – Ministero dell’Economia e delle Finanze
10
10
Some results and forecasts in terms of public finance in Italy
Source: MEF – Ministero dell’Economia e delle Finanze
11
11
Some results and forecasts in terms of public finance in Italy
Public debt (GDP %)
Public debt (net of aid, GDP %)
GDP growth rate (current prices)
132.7
132.5
132.4
130.3
128.5
128.8
129.1
129.0
127.0
124.3
126.9
127.3
124.0
123.9
123.5
120.7
118.6
118.3
2.0
120.3
119.9
2.2
2.1
2.4
2.3
2.4
2017
2018
2019
1.2
0.4
2010
2011
-1.4
-0.4
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source: MEF – Ministero dell’Economia e delle Finanze (April 2016), IMF (October 2015)
12
12
The financial structure of European companies
Financial structure (2013)
Equity
83%
79%
17%
21%
Spain
Italy
68%
32%
France
Composition of debt (2013)
Debt
Other debt
64%
36%
Germany
Banking debt
54%
98%
93%
92%
2%
7%
8%
Spain
Italy
Germany
80%
77%
20%
23%
France
UK
46%
UK
Source: analysis by The European House – Ambrosetti based on MISE and Bank of Italy
13
13
Some final thoughts
• The Italian Government has set out important reforms that will
foster the public finance sustainability and improve the business
environment
• The Italian economy is composed by a great number of innovative
and export-oriented small and medium sized companies
• Italian companies need to grow in order to be able to face the
international competition
• Many companies suffer from financial constraints and are heavily
dependent on bank financing
• Private equity, venture capital and private debt can be an
important support for the Italian companies, providing resources
and know-how to foster their growth
14
14
Economic outlook and key market
drivers of the Italian economy
Innocenzo Cipolletta, AIFI Chairman
13th April 2016, Zurich
15
15
13th April 2016, Zurich
The Italian Private Equity, Venture Capital
and Private Debt industry
Anna Gervasoni, AIFI Chief Executive
1
The Italian private equity, venture capital and private debt market
PE and VC: fundraising
2015
PE and VC: investments
Total: 2,833 Euro Mln
4,620 Euro Mln
(+92% on 2014 data)
(+31% on 2014 data)
Market fundraising:
2,487 Euro Mln
342 investments
2015
(+10% on 2014 data)
(+85% on 2014 data)
2015
PE and VC: divestments
2,903 Euro Mln
(+10% on 2014 data)
178 exit
(+2% on 2014 data)
Fonte: AIFI-PwC
Private debt
20132015
26 players (18 AIFI members)
Fundraising 2013-2015:
923 Euro Mln
Investments 2014-2015:
406 Euro Mln
2
2
PE and VC in Italy: the evolution of fundraising activity
24
24
2006-2015
14.3 Euro Bln raised,
5.2 from international
sources (36%)
Domestic fundraising
International fundraising
Number of players that raised funds
19
19
18
19
15
15
11
Euro Mln
2,487
2,337
+85%
1,903
1,341
1,454
1,196
39
1,750
314
1,348
721
785
1,436
947
1,864
102
695
255
552
530
2007
Source: AIFI-PwC
1,291
165
845
733
2006
623
143
996
922
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
458
426
2013
2014
2015
3
3
PE and VC in Italy: the evolution of investments
2006-2015
More than 3,200 investments
37 Euro Bln invested, 20 (54%) by international investors
Amount invested (Euro Mln)
Number
5,458
372
349
4,197
3,731
292
342
326
302
283
2,615
292
3,583
3,230
4,620
368
3,430
311
3,528
Distribution of investments
(number) by stage
Early stage
Buy Out
Expansion
Other
11%
2,461
36%
24%
29%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Note: other type of investments includes turnaround and replacement deals
Source: AIFI-PwC
2013
2014
2015
4
4
Focus 2006-2015
Venture capital
800 startups financed
0.8 Bln Euro invested in seed and startup deals
Growth capital
1,100 investments
7.4 Bln Euro invested in growth deals
Source: AIFI-PwC
5
5
PE and VC in Italy: the evolution of divestment activity
2006-2015
About 1,300 divestments
17.8 Euro Bln divested
(amount at cost/excluding write offs)
Amount divested
(Euro Mln)
Ammontare
(Euro Mln)
Number of divestments
Numero
3,017
2,855
2,604
2,411
198
163
1,746
144
1,694
1,468
109
1,029
148
158
Distribution of divestments
(number) by type
Sale to PE/VC/Fin. inv.
Trade sale
IPO/Post IPO/Sale of quoted equity
Sale to manag./Other
126
111
17%
92
87
37%
11%
702
273
2006
2007
Note: amount at cost
Source: AIFI-PwC
2008
2009
35%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
6
6
PE and VC in Italy: the evolution of the performance
Total cash out and from inception gross yearly pooled IRR
2006-2014
Average IRR 11.7%
Positive
performance
expected for
2015
Source: AIFI- KPMG Corporate Finance
7
7
Value creation
Which are the key drivers for value creation?
• Target company restructuring
• New governance models
• International acquisitions
8
8
What next?
Outlook for the future
• New opportunities
The role of
• New sectors
infrastructures
9
9
The new market of private debt in Italy: fundraising (2013-2015)
26 players,
18 AIFI members
All players: target fundraising
and capital raised
Euro Mln
Domestic
players
Op.
domestici
96% from Italy,
4% from abroad
International
players
Op.
internazionali
389
100
Other 4 closings during
the first part of 2016
109
Total target 5,500
2013
Foundations
6% Other
3%
Individual inv. and
family office
6%
Capital to be
raised to reach
the target
4,577
Pension funds
16%
Total
fundraising
923
325
598
Fundraising
Raccolta
2014
Other players
AIFI
members
2015
Fundraising
distribution by
source
Banks
49%
Insurance
companies
20%
Source: AIFI, Politecnico Milano, Osservatorio Mini-Bond (for non members data)
10
10
The new market of private debt in Italy: investments (2014-2015)
Amount invested
Total number
406
142
Investment number
Euro Mln
Op.
domestici
Domestic
players
Op.
domestici
Domestic
players
Op.
internazionali
International
players
Op.
internazionali
International
players
31
157
Other players
3
24
107
32
264
15
133
AIFI
members
75
Amount invested
Ammontare
investito
Euro Mln
2014
3
28
12
2015
Source: AIFI, Politecnico Milano, Osservatorio Mini-Bond (for non members data)
2014
2015
11
11
What next?
•
•
•
•
•
Private debt
Synergies with private equity
New opportunities for SMEs
New approaches to origination
New investments instruments
Pespectives for the future
12
12
13th April, Zurich
The Italian Private Equity, Venture Capital
and Private Debt industry
Anna Gervasoni, AIFI Chief Executive
13
Quotidiano
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