Il pianeta Diabete - Sezioni Regionali
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Il pianeta Diabete - Sezioni Regionali
La SINDROME CARDIO-NEFRO-METABOLICA Tempio, Hotel Pausania Inn, 1 Ottobre 2010 Epidemiologia del diabete mellito Il pianeta Diabete Marco Songini, Primario SC di Diabetologia - Azienda Ospedaliera “G.Brotzu”Cagliari L’EPIDEMIA DI DIABETE 195 mil DM di cui 5 mil IDDM (400.000 bambini) Diabete mellito: classificazione (2009) Diabete di tipo 1 (insulino-dipendente) – Autoimmune classico e LADA/NIRAD, neonatale IPEX (X-linked recessivo) – Idiopatico – fulminante Diabete di tipo 2 (non insulino-dipendente) Diabete gestazionale (tipo 1 e 2) Diabete da: da – difetti genetici funzione β-cellula: MODY 1, 2, 3, DNA mitocondriale, neonatale... – difetti genetici azione insulinica: insulino resistenza tipo A, leprecaunismo, . . – patologie pancreas esocrino: pancreatite, pancreatectomia, tumori, fibrosi cistica . . – endocrinopatie: acromegalia, Cushing, feocromocitoma, glucagonoma, . . – da farmaci e sostanze chimiche: glucocorticoidi, tiazidici, diazossido, vacor, . . – infezioni: rosolia congenita, . . – sindromi genetiche associate: Down, Klinefelter, Turner, Wolfram, Friedereich, . . Major types of diabetes and metabolic syndrome this century Demenza + Alzheimer Type3 Type1classico + Lada Type2 + Sindrome Metabolica Type2 Mody DM Undiagnosed ‘hidden’ ‘hidden AGT (IGT eepidemic’ IFG) (IGT e IFG) IGT+IFG / Pre-Diabetes Negli USA 15 + 26% ‘hidden’ AGT (IGT e IFG) At-Risk + Met Syn Harris et al., Diabetes Care, 1998 Costi del Diabete (2010) € 11 miliardi (>8 % del totale della SS) Procapite: sino a > € 8.000 l’anno 17.3% Morte prematura Disabilità 37.8% 28% Ambulatorio 6.7% Ricovero 5.6% Infermiere domiciliare US ’97 $ 98 billions 2002 132 ; pt/y 13.243 vs healthy/y 2.560 = 1\3 spesa sanità US Epidemiologia del diabete tipo 2 The World ‘Epidemic’ Trend of Diabetes & Obesity Estimated prevalence increasing….has incidence paralleled as much? 0.9 western countries but 2.9% yearly far east countries millions of patients 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 calendar year Prevalenza del diabete, 1995 (età > 20 aa) Circa 97 milioni di diabetici nel mondo 7% 5% 5% 5% 5% 22%2 22%2 6% 6% 1% 1% 6% 3% 6% 6% 5% 5% King, Aubert, Herman: Diabetes Care, 1998 L’epidemia di diabesità anni 2000’ età 20-79 yrs : DM,obesità,SM + ‘hidden’ AGT (IGT e IFG) 26. 5 32. 9 24 % 14. 2 17. 5 23 % 84.5 132. 3 57% 9.4 15. 6 22. 5 44 % 14. 1 50 % 1.0 1.3 30 % Mondo 2000:162 millioni DM, 314 milioni IGT/SM Incidenza nel 2000 2010: 220 millioni (+46%) Incidenza nel 2010 % aumento dal 2000 al 2010 2030: >200% =366 milioni, >500mil AGT/SM Eccesso morte da DM 2000 = 6%(3.2mil) 80% nel 3°+ 4° mondo Modificato da Amos AF et al Diabet Med 1997;14:S7-S85. Increasing Burden of Chronic Diseases DIABETE USA TIPO 2 = 17 MILIONI DIABETE USA TIPO 1 = 1.5 MILIONI Age Distribution of the US Population Age groups where chronic disease is most prevalent Source: 2000 US Census 50,000,000 45,000,000 40,000,000 Population 35,000,000 Population shift will increase care burden 30,000,000 25,000,000 2.5X 20,000,000 Current workforce shortages pose difficulty with care burden at this level 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 85 and over 75 to 84 65 to 74 55 to 64 45 to 54 35 to 44 25 to 34 15 to 24 5 to 14 under 5 Age (in deciles) Courtesy of Brent Lowensohn, Kaiser Research Prospective increase of obesity in the world Increment 1986 – 2000 BMI > 30 (obese) x 2 BMI > 40 (moderately obese) x4 BMI > 50 x6 (severe obese) KOREA JAPAN SWITZERLAND NORWAY ITALY AUSTRIA DENMARK FRANCE SWEDEN NETHERLANDS POLAND TURKEY ICELAND BELGIUM PORTUGAL GERMANY IRELAND SPAIN FINLAND CZECH REPUBLIC SLOVAK REPUBLIC LUXEMBOURG HUNGARY NEW ZELAND AUSTRALIA GREECE CANADA UNITED KINGDOM MEXICO % OBESITÀ UNITED STATES 0 5 10 15 20 % 25 30 35 OBESITY AND MODERNIZATION Frequency (%) Traditional living European Urban Polynesians, Aborigines 20 25 30 Body Mass Index (Kg/m²) 35 40 In Nauru and Pima From this . . . . . . to this DIABESITY Top Three Countries in the world Diabetic patients in Million 60 50 40 57 million 30 20 19 million 10 0 U.S. CHINA INDIA 1995 U.S. CHINA INDIA 2025 King et al, Diabetes Care, 1998 Obesity (BMI>30) in USA 1960-2000 (males) 40 35 30 1960-62 1971-74 1976-80 1988-94 1999-2000 25 20 15 10 5 0 20-39y 40-59y 60-74y Flegal & al, JAMA 2002, 288, 1723-7 Obesity* Trends In Adults in the USA 1991-2001 1991 1995 2001 *BMI ≥30. Mokdad et al. JAMA. 1999;282:1519-1522. Mokdad et al. JAMA. 2001;286:1195-1200. No Data <10% 10%-14% 15%-19% ≥20% Diabesità – Trend temporale USA adulti (1991 - 2001) 1:3 US nati 2000 svilupperanno DM, diabetici >15 mil -> 22 mil nel 2025, >60 mil IR (MetSyn): 1\4 futuri DM l’aspettativa di vita US si abbasserà di 5 anni nelle prossime decadi causa il DM NHANES 2003 Prev DM+AGT =14% Prev MetSyn =24% (↑età) JAMA 2003; 289:76-79 Obesità e diabete tipo 2 nei bambini/giovani: “nintendonization” Una nuova preoccupante dimensione della epidemia di diabesità SOVRAPPESO E OBESITA’ NELL’INFANZIA E NELL’ADOLESCENZA 30-40% dei bambini in età scolare è in sovrappeso. 10-12% dei bambini in età scolare è obeso.Uno su due ÆDM >30anni + IMA <40anni Prevalenza dell’obesità in Italia Diabesità nei bambini/giovani:prevalenza USA (1999-2001) vs Italia (1994-2001) L’ Italia ha la prevalenza di obesità infantile più alta d’ Europa (36%) Prevalenza di alterazioni del metabolismo glucidico in bambini e adolescenti obesi (età 4-18 aa) prevalenza (%) 25 22,1 20 15 USA n = 167 Italia n = 701 10 4,4 5 2,4 0,1 0 IGT diabete Sinha R et al. NEJM (2002); 346: 802-810 Invitti C et al. Diabetes Care (2003); 26: 118-124 Features of the Metabolic Syndrome Central obesity (94 and 80cm) hyperleptinemia Microalbuminuria Low-grade inflammation Prothrombotic state (PAI-1,FBG,vW,fX,plt) PCOS Cardiovascular Disease IGT, T2DM InsResistance (+/- iperins.; HOMA) Dyslipidemia (↑ TG e/o ↓ HDL) Hepatic steatosis Hypertension Sleep apnea Genetics +Lifestyle Ortopedic problems Diabesità: prevalenza USA: adulti MessicoAmericani/Anglo-Americani Prevalenza di T2D (%) 25 20 15 Messicani Americani 10 Anglo Americani 5 0 magri obesi maschi magre obese femmine Stern et al. Am J Epidemiol 12:834-851, 1984 Diabesità:incidenza USA: Indiani Pima (adulti) - incidenza/1000 anno Incidenza di T2D71000 anno 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 <20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 >40 BMI Knowlwr et al. Am J Epidemiol 113: 144-156; 1981 Epidemiologia del diabete tipo 1 TYPE 1 DM: ww Incidence ASIA Risk range: • Sardinia: 42 • Venezuela, China: 0.1 • 420 fold difference! OCEANIA AMERICA SARDINIA EUROPE 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Total Incidence (per 100000 person-years) Hot-spots: Sardinia, Puerto Rico, Kuwait (Karvonen M, Diabetologia,1993) 10 Incidenza del diabete tipo 1 in Europa e in alcuni paesi del 20 Mediterraneo 7 (0-14 anni)* 42 32 13 19 10 8 6 22 13 13 6 9.6 10 10 15 12 12 12.9 7 8 9 8 9 Moderato rischio 22 11 32 Hot-spots: Sardinia,Baleari,Libia 10 9.8 6 12 8 8,9 8 6 42 12 6 7 23 6 12,9 8,9 12 12 Adapted from Songini et al. Diabetes Care 2004 26 23 Alto rischio Basso rischio 36 7 7 5 6 9 18 17 14,9 8 8 5 TYPE 1 DIABETES IN ITALY (/100.000 0-14yrs) RIDI STYDY GROUP 13 9 7 11 10 12 10 8 10 8 9 6 42 High risk Moderate risk Low risk 27%of all DM are insulin-treated compared to Italy 8% Diabetes Care 2004 15 12 Popolazione 15-29 anni coperta dai Registri RIDI = 10.2% Incidenza del T1D nel mondo Gradiente polo-equatore: vero o falso? 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Fin lan No dia rv eg ia Sv ez i Es a to ni Po a lon Sa i rd a Pu egn er to a Ri co Ku wa it Su da n Isr ae le incidenza (per 100.000/anno) Marjatta Karvonen et al., Diabetes Care 23:1516-1526,2000 Worldwide Incidence of Type 1 Diabetes in Children < 14 Years, by Sex Finland Sardinia US White US Black UK, Oxford Denmark Germany Hungary Poland Romania Israel Hong Kong China, Beijing 0 10 20 30 Incidence (per 100,000/year) Karvonen et al., Diabetes Care, 23, 2000 Boys Girls 40 50 Minor rischio nelle femmine, soprattutto in Sardegna RIDI STUDY GROUP RR=0.91, (0.85-0.97) RR=0.77 (0.70-0.85) 1 1 1 1 1 M F 1 0 0 0 0 0 Italia peninsulare Sardegna Time trends in Type 1 Diabetes incidence ( 0 - 14 years) Incidence (per 100,000) 45 40 Finland (40.2%) 35 Sardinia (35.9%) 30 Sweden (25.8%) 25 Norway (21.2%) 20 15 Denmark (16.4%) 10 Hungary (8.8%) 5 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 Calendar year 1990 1994 Numero di casi con T1D nel 2000 IDF Diabetes Atlas 2000 Incidenza del diabete tipo 1 nella fascia d’età 15-29 anni in alcune aree Italiane Area Anni Incidenza (per 100.000) 95% C.I. M/F Completezza Prov. Torino 1984-91 6.72 5.96-7.58 1.67 95% Prov. Torino 1984-96 6.55 ----- ----- ----- Prov. Pavia 1988-2000 6.20 4.90-7.81 1.38 100% Umbria 1993-2001 8.08 6.58-9.58 1.41 98.5% Prov. Oristano 1989-2001 20.7 17.0-25.3 ----- 100% Sardegna 1989-1999 19.3 1.5 71% Rep S.Marino (0-29 anni) 1969-1988 6.0 1 98.8% Casu, Songini, il Diabete, dicembre 2004 ----- Trend dell’incidenza del T1D Incidenza e fascia d’età ad Antwerp (Belgio) in un periodo di 12 anni (1989-2000) 16 Incidence x100.000 14 Anticipazione 12 1989 2000 10 8 6 4 2 0 0-14yrs 15-34yrs Total I Weets et al, Diabetes Care 2002;25:840-46 INCIDENZA DEL DIABETE TIPO 1 A KRONOBERG 1998-2001 80 70 60 INCIDENCE N 50 40 30 20 10 0 0-9 10 19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 AGE M. Thunander et al 60-69 70-79 80-89 90+ MALE FEMALE TOTAL Diabetes Care 2005 n. 3606 casi Periodo 1990-1999 I dati del RIDI (Registro Italiano Diabete Insulinodipendente) non sostengono l’ipotesi di uno spostamento dell’esordio del diabete di tipo 1 verso le età più giovani L’incidenza è in costante aumento in tutti le classi di età 39 Summary IMMUNITY AGE GENES BMI INSULIN THERAPY T1DM in children Strong +++ child HLA++ low Immediate T1DM in adults ++ adult HLA + Normal/low immediate LADA + adult HLA Normal/low variable T2DM weak adult ? High infrequent Leslie RDG et at. Diabetes Res & Clin Pract (in press) T1D Gestational Diabetes Mellitus in Sardinia Results from an Early, Universal Screening Procedure C Murgia, Diab Care 2006 Prevalence of GDM In the word: 7% (range: 1-14%) In Italy (Di Cianni, Diabetes Res Clin Pract 2003) 8% (range: 2.3-10%) Prevalence of GDM in Sardinian gestational age groups Gestational age (wks) N % on overall screened population % on GDM patients (N=1103) (N=247) 16-18 73 6.6 28.4 24-26 64 5.8 25.9 30-32 110 9.9 44.5*† Total 247 22.3 χ Square: *P<0.01 vs 20-24 wks; †P<0.02 vs 16-18 wks C Murgia, Diab Care 2006 Epidemiology of T1D Secular trend of T1D in Sardinia Prevalence (per 1000) 7,00 6,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 Birth cohorts Male conscript register - 18 years of age Casu, Songini et al 2004. 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1966 1968 1962 1964 1960 1958 1956 1952 1954 1950 1948 1946 1944 1942 1938 1940 1936 0,00 Epidemiology of T1D Geographical distribution of T1D (0-14) RR RR Alghero: 0.986 (0.979-0.993) Incid. Catalunia : 11.5 (10.6-12.4) RR Arborea: n.c. (incid.=0) Incid. Veneto 0-29: 10.9 T1D RR RR Carloforte: 0.999 (0.996-1.00) Incid. Liguria: 11.7 (7.6-16.2) <0.95 0.95-1.00 1.00-1.05 1.05-1.10 >1.10 T1D Relative Risk 0-14 yrs (1989-99) Inc. cumulativa x 1000 Incidenza cumulativa (per mille) del diabete tipo 1. Confronti tra provincia di Oristano, Cabras e Italia 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Oristano Italia Cabras 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 Classi d'età O. Frongia, comunicazione personale Prediction study-young ages Prevalence of 2-3 islet-related Abs in SC from 36 villages of the four Sardinian provinces (1986-95) 0.47 % T1D risk (/100,000) SS 52.7 38.6 33.3 31.0 1.20 % OR NU 0.34 % N = 8.434 T1D = 43 Median FU 10 yrs (range 2mo-20 yrs) 0.96 % N = 8.434 Age: 6-14 Songini, personal communication CA Sardinia: 0.68% PPV = 32% Studi nei Migranti Effetto della migrazione sul rischio di T1D 10 42 21 20 23 Sardinians migrated to Pavia: RR 3.0 7 13 19 Offspring of both Sardinian parents (only one) migrated to Turin: RR 3.2 (2.1) Lombardy: RR 3.3 (2.0) Lazio: RR 4.3 (2.0) 19 11 14 12 15 6 RR (relative risk) = migrated pop./host pop. 36 26 10 6 8 Venetians 6 migrated to Sardinia 6 RR 0.2 12 22 13 13 7 10 15 12 8 9 8 6 10 42 7 12 8 9.8 7 8 6 12 6-9 Italians from Lazio and Lombardy migrated to 9Germany: 7 7/100.000 incidence 7RR 0.5 5 4 6 9 18 8 10 15 8 85 3 Studi ecologici in Sardegna Epidemiologia T1D 10 χ2 Age 0-4 9 81= 8 66.6 p= 0.88 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 Incidence per 100.000 person/month Time (days) 10 χ282= 72.8 p= 0.76 Age 5-9 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 Time (days) 10 χ283= 80.4 p= 0.56 Age 10-14 9 Incidence per 100.000 person/month Incidence per 100.000 person/month Onset seasonality in Sardinian pts aged 0-14 (1989-96) 8 7 Registries Insulin-dependent Diabetes mellitus Italy 6 Carle ,Songini et al. Diabetes Care 2004 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 Time (days) 240 270 300 330 360 Epidemiologia T1D Birth seasonality in Sardinians T1D patients aged 0-14 years (1989-1998) T1D patients General population 2000 16 1800 14 Mean number of births/month Mean number of births/month 1600 12 10 8 6 4 2 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 Jan-March Apr-June p=0.003 July-Sept Oct-Dec Jan-March Apr-June July-Sept Oct-Dec p=0.009 p=0.01 N=1118 1989-1998 Songini,Casu, Laron et al., J Pediatr Endocrinol Metab. 2001 N=314,084 1979-1995 ISTAT Studi ecologici Correlation with T1D risk in Sardinia Temperature NO (North-South) Precipitation NO (North-South) G6PD- NO (whole island) G6PD- * YES (Central-West) Population density NO (whole island) Urban/rural NO (whole island) Songini,Bottazzo et al. 1999 * Mastinu F. 1999 Studi ecologici Standardized incidence rate (per 100.000) Gross domestic product (1994) and T1D incidence (1989-1994) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 Gross Domestic Products (US$ per head) Patterson et al. 2001 Eurodiab ACE Study Group 35000 40000 Studi ecologici Standardised incidence rate (per 100.000) National coffee consumption and T1D incidence (1989-1994) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 50 100 150 200 Coffee consumption (60 Kg bags per 1000 heads) Patterson et al. 2001 Eurodiab ACE Study Group 250 Studi ecologici Standardised incidence rate (Per 100.000) Latitude and T1D incidence (1989-1994) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 30 35 40 45 50 Latitude (°N) Patterson et al. 2001 Eurodiab ACE Study Group 55 60 65 70 Studi ecologici T1D incidence 0-14 yrs (/100,000) 1) No correlation between nitrate level in tap water and T1D incidence among the 21 Sardinian health districts (1989-98) 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 rp = -0.16 p = N.S. N = 1,118 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Median nitrate concentration (mg/l) 2) No association between the consumption of bottled waters with different concentration of nitrates and the incidence of T1D Casu, Bottazzo, Songini et al. 2000 Studi ecologici Breast feeding in Sardinia Influence of feeding habits on the risk of T1D in Sardinia T1D cases Breast feeding Yes No Meloni et al. 1997 84 16 Controls 70 30 OR (95% C.I.) 1 (ref. cathegory) 0.41(0.19-0.91) Studi ecologici Cow’s milk consumption and T1D incidence 50 Sardinia 30 T1D incidence (per 100,000) T1D incidence (per 100,000) 35 25 20 15 10 5 45 40 35 30 Sardinia 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 70 75 80 85 90 95 Cow's milk consumption (litres/person/yr) Italy Fava et al. 1994 Muntoni et al. 1994 100 0 50 100 150 200 Cow's milk consumption (litres/person/yr) World 250 Studi ecologici Cow’s milk and T1D β-casein A1-B intake and T1D incidence 40 Sardinia-actual (38.6) T1D incidence (per 100,000) 35 30 25 20 15 10 Sardinia-predicted (8.6) 5 0 0,00 0,50 1,00 1,50 2,00 2,50 3,00 3,50 casein A1-B consumption (g/person/day) Elliott et al. 1999 Songini, Casu, Bottazzo, Elliott et al. 2001 4,00 4,50 Malaria and Sardinia Studi ecologici Malaria and T1D in Sardinia the Hygiene hypothesis: might it play a role? Decrease prevalence of parasite infections Disruption/malfunction of the immune system K autoimmunity Relative risk of T1D due to past malaria in all Sardinian areas with low and high morbidity for malaria (Fermi, 1938) Songini, Bernardinelli, Bottazzo et al. 1998 Parassitosi intestinali bambini sardi positivi agli elminti intestinali Anni ’80 Anni ’50 Anni ’70 scolari positivi 40-60% Su 200 bambini di una colonia marina 50% positivi Clinica Pediatrica di Cagliari Dal 1985 al 2004 12 bambini sono risultati ripetutamente positivi nonostante la terapia Più del 40% di scolari cagliaritani e circa il 30% di scolari della Sardegna centro-meridionale positivi Settimo San Pietro 2005 3 soli scolari positivi su 162 analizzati !! Istituto di Parassitologia Università di Cagliari Incidenza del diabete tipo1 e della TBC (/100.000) 1990-1994 0-15 anni EUROPE 60 50 40 30 20 10 RO HR PT ES MK PL SI LT CZ HU EE LV FR-GR BG LU CH AT IE FInland DK NL IS 0 DE BE IL IT 0 SK TBC TBC 80 70 OUTSIDE EUROPE NO UK SE 20 SARDINIA* 40 TYPE 1 DM 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 60 P<0.001 PE SD IN TH MY CN KR JP MX MU CO SA CL DZ OM 0 KW TN AU NZ-US 10 CA 20 TYPE 1 DM 30 P<0. 01 Italy except Sardinia * SARDINIA: TBC AND TYPE 1 DM INCIDENCE RATES (1996-2005, 0-14 YEARS) L. Airaghi – A. Tedeschi, Acta Diabetol (2006) TBC E DIABETE TIPO 1 IN SARDEGNA 1996-2005 (0-14 anni) INCIDENCE RATE (X 100.000) 60 DIABETES TBC 50 40 30 20 10 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 YEARS OER- Regione Autonoma della Sardegna, EURODIAB 2002 2003 2004 2005 Metabolomics • 13 children who became T1DM in the first 3 years of life • 52 sex-, age- and HLA-matched children who did not become T1DM in the first 3 years of life • Dry blood spot at birth (within the first 3 days of life) • Measurement of essential and nonessential amino acids Blood concentrations of 13 Amino Acids (AA) at 3 days of age (Ala, Arg, Asp, Ctr, Glu, Gly, Leu, Met, Orn, Phe, Pro, Tyr, Val) (95% CI) TOTAL AA 1200 µmol/l 1100 P = 0.010 1000 900 800 700 600 Children who developed Type 1 diabetes by the age of 3 yrs (No = 13) Sex-, age- and HLA-matched control children (No = 52) Never have doctors known so much about how to identify and control this disease, yet the epidemic keeps on raging …. Grazie per la Vostra paziente attenzione!
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