Fare affari nel Mediterraneo

Fare affari nel Mediterraneo
Opportunità per l’Italia
Michele Pennazio
Group Strategic Plan Director
Milano,
12 dicembre
Italcementi
Group 2008
Fare affari nel Mediterraneo – Milano, 12 Dicembre 2008
0
Sustained GDP growth of northern African countries …
Macroeconomic overview
Algeria
Egypt
Libya
Morocco
Tunisia
Middle East
EU27
World
•
GDP
GDP growth
growth
Population
Population
GDP
GDP per
per Head
Head
(5
(5 years
years average)
average)
(5
(5 years
years average)
average)
(USDk
(USDk at
at PPP,
PPP, 2008E)
2008E)
4.1
1
1.2%
1.2%
1
5.6
5.9
5.9
2
6.0
3
1.9%
1.9%
2
2.0%
2.0%
3
6.8
4.9
5.0
4
5.3
5.1
5
5.9
5.2
6
7
8
2.4
1.3
3.5
2.4
1.1%
1.3%
4
1.1%
1.0%
5
6
7
8
8.3
1
0.0%
0.0%
- 2004-2008E
0.0%2009F-2013F
-
5.8
2
16.4
3
4.4
4
7.9
5
6
0.0
7
0.0
8
0.0
Source: EIU estimates and forecasts
Italcementi Group
Fare affari nel Mediterraneo – Milano, 12 Dicembre 2008
1
… fuelled by natural resources, tourism development and,
in some countries, agriculture
GDP structure evolution by country (% on totala))
Services
Industry
Agriculture
Algeria
Algeria
29
Egypt
Egypt
28
41
51
63
46
Libya
Libya
49
50
38
38
Tunisia
Tunisia
31
41
53
65
32
Morocco
Morocco
54
55
53
30
30
33
45
13
1998
8
7
2008
2013
17
1998
13
2008
12
8
2013
2001
Limited fertile land
Strong role of tourism
Large mineral
Largest producer of
resources
refined products in
Hydrocarbon sector
Africa (after South
accounting for more
Africa)
than 40% of nominal
GDP
•
•
b)
Italcementi Group
2
1
2008
2013
Significant oil revenue
Rising oil output and oil
prices leading to large
government investment in
infrastructure and
development programmes
Source: EIU (1998/2001 Actual – 2008 estimates – 2013 forecasts)
1998 not available
61
65
29
27
37
67
52
43
20
16
15
14
11
10
1998
2008
2013
1998
2008
2013
Significant rain-fed
agriculture
(employing 42% of
the workforce)
Manufacturing
(phosphates)
Construction industry
developments
Strongly diversified
economy
Manufacturing (61.2% of
industrial output in 2006)
and tourism alongside
with the extraction of
phosphates
Fare affari nel Mediterraneo – Milano, 12 Dicembre 2008
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Strong relationships between Northern Africa and Southern
Europe
Top 3 destinations of export by country (% of total export, 2007)
100
Germany
US
France
Spain
Italy
75
8,3
12,2
50
7,5
28,2
25
21,4
10,1
9,2
30,4
40,8
19,2
7,9
20,4
13,3
9,9
4,9
0
Algeria
•
Egypt
Libya
Morocco
Tunisia
Source: EIU
Italcementi Group
Fare affari nel Mediterraneo – Milano, 12 Dicembre 2008
3
Cement demand in the early-middle stage of development
with strong growth potential
2007 Cement consumption per capita in kg/head as a function of PPP GNP per capita in USD/head
Egypt: plan to raise
the proportion of
inhabited land
Tunisia
Real Estate and
tourism development
Cement Consumption per Capita (kG)
Algeria: favourable demographics,
foreign investment, urbanisation and
infrastructure
B
Libya: large investment
in infrastructure and
development programmes
Morocco:
Infrastructure, social
housing and tourism
PPP GNP per Capita (USD) a)
Source: JP Morgan, Sep-08 - EIU
a) PPP GNP is gross national income converted to international dollars using purchasing power parity rates, as usual for World Bank statistics.
Italcementi Group
Fare affari nel Mediterraneo – Milano, 12 Dicembre 2008
4
Integrated and flexible industrial system in the Med Rim
to manage mature market cycles and capture growth in
emerging countries
Italcementi presence and projects in the Med Rim
Key indicators 2007
Cement Cap.: 47 Mt
Cement plants: 46
Grinding centers: 12
Ready-mix sales: 18 Mm3
Batching plants: 534(*)
Major recent and under construction/development plants
Italcementi Group
(*) of
Fare affari nel Mediterraneo – Milano, 12 Dicembre 2008
which 244 Calcestruzzi
5
Italcementi investment in Libya strengthens the Med Rim
presence, securing a cost competitive position in an
emerging market
Libya: Italcementi and Libyan Economic and Social Development Fund
The
The Market
Market
Population ‘07: 6.1 million; CAGR ‘08-’13: 2%
GDP ’07: 45 billion USD:
υ CAGR ’04-08: 6%
υ CAGR ’09-’13: 6.8%
Cement consumption:
υ 2007: 6.5 Mtpa,
υ 2010 exp.: > 10 Mtpa
Cement capacity ’07: < 5.5 Mtpa
Al-Ghazala
The
The Project
Project
Greenfield plant with 4 mtpa capacity of grey
cement and optional 0.5 mtpa of white cement
Located on Eastern Libya coast, near Tobruk,
optimal logistical platform for exports
Total Investment between 550 and 750 USDm
New plant location
Italcementi Group
Fare affari nel Mediterraneo – Milano, 12 Dicembre 2008
6
Business development in Libya: opportunities and issues
Issues
Issues
Opportunities
Opportunities
Strategic development decisions, coupled
with willingness to open the country to
outside know how and backed by ample
financial resources, create ample room for
business development
Creation of National Agencies managing
key resources and infrastructure facilitates
focused approach to key counterparts
Regulatory framework still under
development allows to proactively
contribute to its definition (but uncertainty
can frustrate quick project progress)
More than in other countries in the region,
personal trust is key to achieving results.
Once developed, it becomes a key asset
Italcementi Group
Decision making is restricted to a limited
number of individuals, not easy to reach
Do not expect the structures below key
decision makers to take initiative and
proactively problem-solve without
instructions from above
Many claimants to role of conduit to decision
makers, screening is imperative but can take
time and create ‘false starts’
Business can only be effectively conducted
in person – requires presence on the
grounds and cannot rely on phone/email for
real progress
Practical obstacles persist (entry visa
process, absence of 3G mobile phone
network etc.)
Fare affari nel Mediterraneo – Milano, 12 Dicembre 2008
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