Convenzione INGV-DPC 2007-2009

Transcript

INGV – DPC Projects 2007 – 2009
Seismology
2/193
Index
General Statements and Organization
5
Fund request
10
CU S0 – General Coordination and Management of Seismological
Projects
11
Description of projects
Project S1 - Analysis of the seismic potential in Italy for the
evaluation of the seismic hazard
25
Project S2 - Development of a dynamical model for seismic hazard
assessment at national scale
59
Project S3 - Fast evaluation of parameters and effects of strong
earthquakes in Italy and in the Mediterranean
85
Project S4 - Italian Strong Motion Database
123
Project S5 - High resolution multi-disciplinary monitoring of active
fault test-sites areas in Italy
147
Appendix - List of Personnel Involved
181
Annexes: UR Forms
Project S1
Project S2
Project S3
Project S4
Project S5
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INGV-DPC 2007-2009 Agreement
Projects in Seismology
General Statements and Organization
The 2007-2009 Agreement between the Dipartimento della Protezione Civile
(DPC) and the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) includes, among
the others, the execution of a series of Projects in Seismology. These are developed
to achieve objectives of specific interest for the DPC in the field of Seismology. The
projects are carried out with the contribution of the national and international scientific
community, thus, with the participation of INGV and other Institutions researchers
and structures.
The Agreement defines the general organization and coordination of the projects,
as well as the project number, title, structure, and objectives. For each project DPC
and INGV have consensually defined a pair of coordinators who are responsible of
Project achievements: one from INGV, the other from an external Institution. Each
project is also attributed a tutor and co-tutor from DPC with the responsibility to
monitor the Project advances and formulate proposals for additional investigation,
development, and integration of specific activities. The management, organization,
and transversal coordination of the Projects is committed to a General Coordinator,
who also supervises the Project execution. The General Coordinator and Project
Coordinators have been nominated by the INGV President in his decree n. 515 on
th
December 5 , 2007.
In order to grant an international quality of the research and of the project
deliverables, the DPC-INGV Agreement includes the support of an International
Evaluation Committee (IEC) formed by international experts jointly nominated by the
INGV and DPC. The tasks of the IEC are i) evaluating the initial Project proposals
and contributing to their scientific improvement; ii) monitoring the projects and
formulating an evaluation every 6 months; iii) keeping contacts with the Project
Coordinators and with the General Coordinator.
Information on Projects, Coordinators, DPC Tutors and IEC components is given
below:
General Coordinator: Daniela Pantosti, INGV - Roma1
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Project S1 – Analysis of the seismic potential in Italy for the evaluation of the seismic
hazard (Determinazione del potenziale sismogenetico in Italia per il calcolo della
pericolosità sismica). Coordinators: Salvatore Barba (INGV - RM1) and Carlo
Doglioni (Università di Roma "La Sapienza"), DPC Tutors: Daniela Di Bucci and Rita
De Nardis.
Project S2 – Development of a dynamical model for seismic hazard assessment at
national scale (Realizzazione di un modello dinamico sperimentale di valutazione
della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale). Coordinators: Warner Marzocchi (INGV
- BO) and Ezio Faccioli (Politecnico di Milano), DPC Tutors: Fabio Sabetta and
Antonio Lucantoni.
Project S3 – Fast evaluation of parameters and effects of strong earthquakes in Italy
and in the Mediterranean (Valutazione rapida dei parametri e degli effetti dei forti
terremoti in Italia e nel Mediterraneo). Coordinators: Alberto Michelini (INGV - CNT)
and Antonio Emolo (Università di Napoli Federico II), DPC Tutors: Roberta Giuliani
and Fabrizio Bramerini.
Project S4 – Italian Strong Motion Database (Banca dati accelerometrica italiana).
Coordinators: Francesca Pacor (INGV - MI) and Roberto Paolucci (Politecnico di
Milano), DPC Tutors: Antonella Gorini and Adriano De Sortis.
Project S5 – High resolution multi-disciplinary monitoring of active fault test-sites
areas in Italy (Test sites per il monitoraggio multidisciplinare di dettaglio).
Coordinators: Lucia Margheriti (INGV - CNT) and Aldo Zollo (Università di Napoli
"Federico II"), DPC Tutors: Sandro Marcucci and Mario Nicoletti.
IEC component are: Dr. Oona Scotti (IRSN, France), Dr. Edward Field (USGS,
USA), and Prof. Kyriazis Pitilakis (Thessaloniki University, Greece).
As mentioned above, each Project is leaded by two Project Coordinators that are
responsible of the scientific success of the project and should grant interaction and
exchanges within the participants. The project is structured in Research Units (RU)
coordinated by a RU Responsible who is the scientific responsible for the activities
and objectives of the specific RU, he keeps close coordination with the other RU
Responsibles and with the Project Coordinators. The Project Coordinators ensure the
required level of interaction between the RU’s inside Projects, keep close contacts
with the Project referents from the DPC, and cooperate with the General Coordinator
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to ensure coordination between the different Projects on results exchanges and
specific themes of transversal interest. The potential exchanges envisioned for the
projects, both in terms of sharing of results at different stages of the project, and
activities to be developed in parallel, are reported in Table 1. To grant this interaction
the General Coordinator and project coordinators will organize specific transversal
workpanels. Plenary Project meetings will be organized depending on the needs of
each project. Transversal project meetings will be also organized to sponsor
exchanges and results transfer. A final conference for the presentation of the results
of all seismological projects will be organized in June 2010.
In order to ensure the general coordination and management activities, the
General Coordinator is also Responsible of the Coordination Unit [CU-S0] described
in the following.
A total number of 60 RUs contribute to Projects S1 – S5. These involves a total of
458 scientific and technical individuals for a total of about 2350 person/months. The
institutions involved include 8 INGV Departments, 7 CNR Institutes, 2 other Italian
research Institutes, 1 PON, 21 Italian Universities, 10 European + 4 extra-European
Research Centers, 15 European + 7 extra-European Universities.
The chronogram of relevant Project deadlines is reported below.
May 1, 2008
October-November
2008
April 30, 2009
May 1st, 2009
May 1st – June 15,
2009
Fund allocation 1st phase, official start of
Projects
First half-year scientific evaluation by the IEC
End of 1st phase; deadline for delivery of the Project
scientific report.
Start of 2nd phase
First-year scientific evaluation by the IEC, re-definition of
the financial plan for the 2nd phase, and approval from the
DPC
Deadline for 1st phase financial report by the RU’s.
June 15, 2009
June 30, 2009
July1, 2009
September 30, 2009
Novembre-December
2009
May 31, 2010
June 30, 2010
July-August 2010
Deadline for 1st phase financial report by the INGV
(including the financial reports by the RU’s).
Fund allocation 2nd phase. Possible closure of some RU’s.
Deadline for final financial report by RU’s not confirmed
for the 2nd phase.
Second half-year scientific evaluation by the IEC
End of Projects.
Deadline for delivery of final Project scientific reports.
Final scientific evaluation by the IEC
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August 31, 2010
September 30, 2010
October 31, 2010
Last term of use of funds for research grants and contracts,
and of funds for general coordination.
Deadline for 2nd phase financial report by the RU’s.
Deadline for 2nd phase financial report by the INGV
(including the financial reports by the RU’s).
ProjectsS1-S5. Financial Plan for the First Phase (Euros)
Importo
previsto
a
Categoria di spesa
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
1) Spese di personale
177.809
2) Spese per missioni
341.130
3) Costi amministrativi
4.600
4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre
prestazioni professionali
617.123
5) Spese per servizi
65.500
6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo
232.850
7) Spese indirette (spese generali)
136.866
Totale
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
1.575.878
ProjectsS1-S5. Financial Plan for the Second Phase (Euros)
Importo
previsto
a
Categoria di spesa
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
156.691
380.009
15.000
569.257
54.200
95.310
125.655
Totale
1.396.122
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Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
ProjectsS1-S5. Financial Plan TOTAL (Euros)
Importo
previsto
a
Categoria di spesa
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
334.500
721.139
19.600
1.186.380
119.700
328.160
262.521
Totale
2.972.000
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Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
Fund request
Synthesis of Fund requests per project
Project
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
Total
first phase
496.400
370.500
330.295
211.500
167.183
1575878
second phase
460.600
319.500
269.705
208.500
137.817
1396122
total
957000
690000
600000
420000
305000
2972000
Cost breakdown and INGV vs. non-INGV allocations
Project
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
Total
TOTAL
%
Personale
INGV
Esterni
46.400
25.750
20.700 122.850
23.200
14.000
4.000
44.600
6.000
27.000
100.300 234.200
334.500
11,26
Project
CU S0 –General
Coordination and
Management of
Seismological
Projects
Missioni
INGV
Esterni
124.400 106.700
64.000
56.450
88.409
70.800
45.000
86.350
50.000
29.030
371.809 349.330
721.139
24,26
Costi
Amministrativi
INGV Esterni
6.000
0
13.600
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
19.600
0
19.600
0,66
Studi, Ricerche,
e Prest. Prof.
INGV
Esterni
199.700 180.300
20.000 215.600
114.000 147.780
95.000
88.000
51.000
75.000
479.700 706.680
1.186.380
39,92
Servizi
INGV Esterni
6.000 83.900
0
9.000
0
2.000
0
800
16.000
2.000
22.000 97.700
119.700
4,03
Materiale
Durevole e di
Consumo
INGV
Esterni
53.300
41.000
68.000
33.900
35.500
51.710
8.000
10.650
6.800
19.300
171.600 156.560
328.160
11,04
Spese Indirette
INGV
Esterni
48.200
35.350
20.700
45.200
25.891
26.710
14.000
23.600
10.200
12.670
118.991 143.530
262.521
8,83
Totale
INGV
Esterni
484.000
473.000
207.000
483.000
287.000
313.000
166.000
254.000
140.000
165.000
1.284.000 1.688.000
2.972.000
43,20
56,80
Personale
Missioni
Costi
Amministrativi
Studi, Ricerche, e
Prest. Prof.
Servizi
Materiale
Durevole e di
Consumo
Spese Indirette
Altro
Totale
20.000
20.000
47.000
60.000
-
-
34.300
165.300
346.300
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CU S0 – General Coordination and Management of Seismological
Projects
Responsible
Daniela Pantosti, Sezione Sismologia e Tettonofisica, INGV, Via di Vigna Murata
605, 00143 Roma, tel +39-0651860483, +39-3357927038; email: [email protected]
RU Composition:
Responsible
Position
Institution
Daniela
Pantosti
Research
Director,
General
Coordinator of
the INGV-DPC
2007-09 Projects
in Seismology
INGV-Roma 1
Participants
Position
Institution
Giuseppe Di
Capua
(Managing
Committee
Secretary)
Tiziana Casula
(Administrative
Secretary)
Ezio Faccioli
Warner
Marzocchi
Antonio Emolo
Tecnologo
INGV-AC
Coll. Tecn.
INGV-AC
2
2
Full Prof
Research
Director
Ricercatore
Poli MI
INGV-Roma 1
0
0
0
0
0
0
Alberto
Michelini
Francesca
Pacor
Roberto
Paolucci
Aldo Zollo
Research
Director
Primo
Ricercatore
Professore
Associato
Full Professor
Univ. Studi
Napoli Fed. II
Dip. Sci.
Fisiche
INGV-CNT
0
0
INGV - MI
0
0
Poli MI
0
0
0
0
Lucia
Margheriti
Salvatore
Barba
Carlo Doglioni
Primo
Ricercatore
Primo
Ricercatore
Full Professor
Univ. Studi
Napoli Fed. II
Dip. Sci.
Fisiche
INGV - CNT
0
0
INGV – Roma
1
Uni Roma 1
0
0
0
0
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Man/Months
1st phase
2
Man/Months
2nd phase
2
Man/Months
1st phase
3
Man/Months
2nd phase
3
Activities and Objectives
This CU includes all the general management and coordination activities
necessary for the execution of the projects in Sesimology. The Responsible (General
Coordinator) and the Project Coordinators form the INGV-DPC 2007-09 Managing
Committee for the Projects in Seismology, which has the following tasks:
• Supervise the project execution and development, the project coherency with
the foreseen activities, and the project administration and functioning.
• Interact with the referents from the Department of Civil Protection.
• Manage the whole projects ensuring their progress.
• Verify the state of advance of the projects and the correspondence of their
results with those foreseen in the INGV-DPC Agreement.
• Grant interaction between the projects, ensuring to the General Coordinator
all the necessary collaboration.
The activities aimed at the above purposes include the followings:
• Periodic meetings of the Managing Committee, with a frequency of at least
one every 6 months, plus additional meetings when required.
• Organization of specific meetings aimed at ensuring interaction between the
projects, particularly on subjects of relevance for more than one project.
These meetings may include the participation of selected international
experts, either from the International Evaluation Committee or external to it.
• Organization of the Evaluation meetings with the International Evaluation
Committee foreseen in the INGV-DPC Agreement.
• Organization of activities other than Project meetings (foreseen within the
organization of each Project) to evaluate the state of advance of the projects.
• Set up of additional activities necessary to the achievement of the project
results.
The General Coordinator calls the meetings of the Managing Committee, and
defines the agenda. Giuseppe Di Capua acts as the Managing Committee Secretary.
Specific tasks of the General Coordinator include the followings:
• Ensure the scientific coordination between the projects, including the transfer
of procedures, information, developments, etc., supported by the Project
Coordinators.
• Act as the INGV-DPC Project spokesman.
• Supervise the projects and watch over on project deadlines.
• Interact with the INGV President and with the Director of SAPE Office of the
Civil Protection Department.
• Keep contacts with international experts and with the International Evaluation
Committee.
• Set up and update a web site dedicated to the INGV-DPC Projects.
The Financial Plan reported below reflects the activities foreseen to achieve the
RU tasks. Particularly:
• the costs for personnel (“Spese di personale”) correspond to the costs due for
the work of the General Coordinator;
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• the costs for missions (“Spese per missioni”) include a minimum of 4 trips to
Italy for the periodic evaluation by the International Evaluation Committee (3
people), plus the costs for the trips of the Project Managing Committee (12
people) during the organization and evaluation meetings foreseen above, plus
the costs for the several trips of the General Coordinator to participate to the
periodic Project meetings (a minimum of 3 for each project = 15 meetings)
and other relevant meetings;
• The administrative costs (“Costi amministrativi”) include the costs for the
organization of meetings other than internal Project meetings (foreseen within
the organization of each Project) and the organization of the Final Meeting to
be held once the scientific part of the projects is concluded as proposed by
the Managing Committee in agreement with the SAPE Director;
• The costs for studies, research, and other professional services (“Spese per
studi e ricerche ed alter prestazioni professionali”) include the fees for the
International Evaluation Committee, and the costs for inviting additional
international experts to specific meetings as described above;
• The costs for Durables and Consumables include reprints of brochures and
pubblications produced during the previous projects for outreach purposes;
• The voice “Altro” (others) includes funds allocated to start new activities
(requested by SAPE Director), or to strengthen already approved activities, in
order to ensure the achievement of the foreseen project objectives. The
allocation of these funds will be agreed upon with the Department of Civil
Protection.
Financial Plan
First Phase
Importo
previsto
a
Categoria di spesa
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
10.000
10.000
5.000
15.000
0,00
30.000
0,00
8) Altro
50.000
Totale
120.000
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Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
Second Phase
Importo
previsto
a
Categoria di spesa
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
10.000
10.000
42.000
15.000
0,00
0,00
0,00
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
149.300
8) Altro
Totale
0,00
226.300
Importo
previsto
a
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
Total
Categoria di spesa
20.000
20.000
47.000
30.000
Finanziato
dall'Organismo
c = a-b
0,00
30.000
0,00
8) Altro
199.300
Totale
346.300
CV of the General Coordinator
Researcher with INGV (former ING) since 1987, Primo Ricercatore since 1996,
and Dirigente di Ricerca since 2000. She is presently leading the Active Tectonics
Unit of the Seismology and Tectonophysics Department in Rome.
Her training started in Structural Geology and Geomorphology at the University of
Rome "La Sapienza" to subsequently focus on Active Tectonics and
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Paleoseismology as possible input to modern assessment of seismic hazard. Her
activity at INGV is dedicated to the development of near fault studies, mainly
trenching and geomorphology, aimed to the characterization of the seismogenic
source and of its seismic behavior for the development of recurrence and
segmentation models in Italy, in the broad Mediterranean but also in California and
South America. In recent times, to increase the possibilities of building up a complete
and long history of seismicity of a region, she devoted particular attention to the
study of earthquake related deposits and features not directly connected to the fault
slip (off fault - i.e., liquefactions, tsunami deposits, subsidence/uplift features, etc.).
She leaded or participated in the implementation of Geologic Databases relevant for
seismic hazard studies, among them: the first version of the Italian Database of
seismic Sources (DISS 2.0), the Worldwide Database of Paleoseismological
Earthquake Recurrence and the Paleotsunami Database.
She spent more than two years in California doing field work; she studied and
trenched several major seismogenic faults in Greece, Turkey, Iran, Central and
South America. She participated also in several E.C. projects such as FAUST,
EUROPALEOS,
CORSEIS,
RELIEF,
3HAZ-Corinth,
TRANSFER.
In 1995 she received the ILP Edward Flinn award for "her contribution to the study of
paleoseismology and Holocene tectonics in several areas". Between 1996 and 2004
she co-coordinate the project II-5 "Earthquake Recurrence through Time" of the
International Lithosphere Program. She also launched and leaded the ESC working
group in Active Tectonics and Paleoseismology of the Mediterranean area. She is
now participating in the new ILP task-force "Global and regional parameters of
paleoseismology; implications for fault scaling and future earthquake hazard".
She was part of the Editorial Board of the international journals Tectonophysics
(1998-2005) and Bulletin of Seismological Society of America (1999-2006) and since
2007 entered the Editorial Board of the Journal of Earthquake Engineering. Since
1999 she is responsible for the INGV website. She is General Coordinator for the
Seismological Projects of the 2007-2009 INGV-DPC Agreement. She is author of
more than 60 pubblications on international journals.
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Table 1 – Foreseen Projects interactions. The table shows that S1 is the main data provider especially for S2 but also to S3 and S4. S5
produces results to be transferred in S1 and S4. S3 can benefit substantially from the activities on the site characterization developed within
S4. The interaction among projects will be developed also through Thematic Work Tables. At present we have set out the following ones:
TWT1 | Projects S1-S2 – Definition of the procedures to integrate the Data Bases in S2;
TWT2 | Projects S1-S2 – Computation of ER models and of MOS – verify that the available data allow these computations;
TWT3 | Projects S2-S3 – Ground Motion and attenuation;
TWT4 | Projects S3-S4 – Availability of data, distribution and organization of archives;
TWT5 | Projects S3-S4 – Characterization of sites, anomalous sites etc.
Phase
project
I
II
results
ACT #
Semester
1
2
1
2
S1
A2.01.3
Magnitude computation
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
A2.02.1
production of the Vp and Vs high definition tomographic model for
the crust
X
S1
S1
A2.02.2
upgrade of the Moho map and of the 3D mean Vp model
S1
A2.05.2
Development of an upgraded version of EMMA database
S1
A3.01.1
Slip rates of Italian seismogenic sources
S1
A3.01.7
Uncertainties on probabilities of earthquake occurrence
S1
A3.12.3
New seismogenic sources
S1
A3.13.11
Faults plane spatial uncertainties and near-field limit
S1
A3.13.4
Computation of MOS maps (PSA and SI) using only DISS individual
sources
S1
A3.13.5
Computation of MOS maps (PSA and SI) using DISS individual and
area sources
common
To be shared with
S2 T2,4,6
activity
S2 T6
S3 A 4.1
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
S2 T2,4 - S3 A5.3 S4
X
X
X
S3 A 4.1
S2 T4
S2 T4,6
S2 T4
S2 T2,4 - S2 T2
(propedeutico)
con S2 Scelta del campo di variabilità dei parametri
S2 T2,4
S2
X
S2
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S1
A5.03.3
Strain and slip rate modeling at national scale
AS.01.1
Upgrading and homogeneization of the instrumental catalog of
seismicity of Italy
AS.02.2
Estimation of seismicity rates of each tectonic region (stochastic
stationary and non-stationary processes)
S1
AS.03.1
occurrence frequency, magnitude distribution etc of the seismicity of
the Italian seismogenic sources.
S1
AS.04.3
Definition of areas affected by anomalous macroseismic attenuation
S1
X
X
X
X
X
S2
T2.4: Development of an ER model based on a Brownian Passage
Time (BPT) behavior applied to the seismogenic structures of DISS
3
S2
T2.5: Development of an ER model based on a mixture approach: a
smoothed seismicity background for small-to-moderate magnitudes,
and a “characteristic” recurrence model for larger magnitudes
S2
T2.6: Development of an ER model based on an interacting fault
population (DISS 3) by using a CFF model linked to a recurrence
time model for each fault
X
X
X
X
S2
X
S2 (propedeutico)
S2 T2,6 - S4
X
S1
X
X
X
X
X
X
T3.1: Basic ground motion and attenuation tools
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X
X
X
X
-
X
S2 T2
con S2 Compatibilità con i dati di ITALAB e confronto con i
modelli non stazionari di occorrenza selezionati (verifica
con procedure del task 6)
X
X
X
S2 T2
con S2 Compatibilità con i dati di ITALAB e confronto con i
modelli non stazionari di occorrenza selezionati (verifica
con procedure del task 6)
X
S2
S1 AS02.2
Do Italian data support this kind of non-stationary model?
S1 AS02.2
S1 AS02.2?
S4 T2,3,4
Checking of databases of reference attenuation relations
used in S2 with the updtaed classifications and findings of
S4
-
-
-
S2
T3.2: Attenuation of macroseismic intensity
S2
T3.3: Broadening the options for site/ground classification
S2
T3.4 Generalized attenuation class for synthetic ground motions
S2
T4.1 Scenario simulations
S2
T5.5: Alternative tools for damage scenarios
S3
Task 1: Data availability, distribution and archiving (WP1.1, Strong
motion data acquisition and archiving of waveforms and parametric
data for Italian stations)
S3
Task 1: Data availability, distribution and archiving (WP1.2,
Broadband data acquisition and archiving of waveforms and
parametric data for Italian stations)
S3
Task 2: Shakemap service
S3
(WP2.2 Homogenization of ShakeMap®: GMPEs and local site
effects parameters)
S3
Task 3: Checking and validation of the shakemap results and
associated analysis
S3
(WP3.2 Determination of site corrections)
X
X
-
X
X
X
-
X
X
X
-
-
X
X
X
-
-
X
X
X
X
X
X
S3 A3.3 S1(propedeutico)
S3 A3.2 - S4 T5
S4 - Potential use of parameters other than Vs,30
S3 A3.2
S4
S3 A 4.3 - S4 T4
S4 - Rispetto a S3: Confronto tra metodi di calcolo e
possibile accordo su sorgenti specifiche. Rispetto a S4;
modellazione numerica della risposta in siti specifici di
registrazione
S3 A3.3
S4
X
X
X
X
S4
X
X
X
S4
X
X
X
X
S4
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S4
S3
Task 4: Seismic source estimates and associated effects
X
S3
(WP4.1 Green’s functions computation and moment tensor
determination)
S3
S3
(WP4.2 Finite fault characteristics from the inversion of
seismograms)
S3
Task 5: Fast assessment of source parameters and tsunaimigenic
potential for M>6 in the Mediterreanenean region
S3
(WP5.3 – Rapid determination of point source moment tensor and
extended source models (in collaboration with WP4.2)
1. ITACA update - Publication in the Web of ITACA ver. 0.8a, after
debugging
X
X
X
S1(propedeutico)
X
X
X
X
S1(propedeutico)
X
X
X
S1(propedeutico)
x
S3 A6.3
S4
S4
S4
1. ITACA update - Inclusion in ITACA of 2005-07 records from the
RAN
x
x
x
x
S3 A3.4
1. ITACA update - Collection of records from local networks and
previous research projects and inclusion in ITACA
x
S4
S3 A3.4
1. ITACA update - Protocol for quasi real-time data transmission
x
S4
x
S3A1.1
1. ITACA update - Test and debug of ITACA release 1.0
x
S4
x
S2 T6
SYNTHETIC SEISMOGRAMS TO BE INCLUDED IN ITACA - NEW
S4
S1(?), S2, S3
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2. Geological-geotechnical catalogue of ITACA sites - Synthesis of
results and inclusion in ITACA
x
S2, S3
S4
3. Site characterization by surface waves methods - Definition of
procedures for site characterization
x
S3 A3.2
S4
S4
S4
4. Identification of anomalous sites and records - Identification of
anomalous sites based on geo-morphological evidence
4. Identification of anomalous sites and records - Identification of
anomalous sites based on statistical analysis of existing records
4. Identification of anomalous sites and records - Numerical
modelling of seismic response at selected sites
x
x
S3 A3.2
x
x
S3 A3.2
x
x
S3 A3.2
S4
4. Identification of anomalous sites and records - Synthesis of
results and implementation in the database
x
S2 T3, S3
S4
5. Site classification - Revised site classification at recording
stations based on the Italian and European seismic norms
x
x
x
x
S4
S3 A3.2
5. Site classification - Check of applicability of simplified
classification criteria based on surface geology maps
x
x
S4
S3 A3.2
5. Site classification - Improved classification of rock sites
x
S4
x
x
x
S3 A3.2
5. Site classification - Bibliographic search and selection of
descriptive parameters for site conditions in addition to Vs,30
x
S4
S3 A3.2
5. Site classification - Statistical analyses to check improved site
classification schemes
x
x
x
S3 A3.2
S4
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5. Site classification - Synthesis of results and implementation in the
database
x
S4
S5
S2 T3
1.4
Production of the isobath maps - ALTO TIBERINA
1.5
Production of the geological and geomorphological map and of the
stratigraphic scheme of the AT area.
x
x
S5
2.1
MESSINA - OBS recovery
Integration of OBS data into the archive
S5
2.2
MESSINA Integrated archive
Earthquake refined locations
Correlation of seismicity and active faults
S5
2.4
MESSINA - Evaluation of the velocity field from all the available data
2.4
MESSINA - Computation of the horizontal strain-rate field and of the
inter-seismic strain loading and deep geometry of the 1908 Messina
fault
x
S1
x
S5
S1
x
S1
x
S1, S4
x
S1 (propedeutico)
x
S5
S1 (propedeutico)
x
S5
2.5
MESSINA - Preparation of the datasets needed for analyses of
earthquakes occurring during 1988-2007
S4 (?)
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x
S5
2.5
Hypocentral locations and FM computations with the additional
contribution by the INGV experiment data (first phase)
S1
x
S5
3.2
Refined picking , earthquake locations, tomographic velocity models
S5
3.2
Earthquake Source parameters from inversion of spectral data
3.4
High rate GPS acquisition
High-rate GPS processing
x
S1
x
S5
x
S1, S4
x
x
S1
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Description of Projects
23/193
24/193
Seismological Projects
Progetti Sismologici
Project S1
Analysis of the seismic potential in
Italy for the evaluation of the
seismic hazard
Progetto S1
Determinazione del potenziale
sismogenetico in Italia per il calcolo
della pericolosità sismica
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26/193
Progetto S1
Titolo: Determinazione del potenziale sismogenetico in Italia
per il calcolo della pericolosità sismica
Coordinatori
a) Salvatore Barba, Primo Ricercatore, INGV
e-mail [email protected]
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
Via di Vigna Murata 605
I - 00143 Roma
phone +39-06-51860-362
Mobile +39-347-8449422
Skype sal.barba
http://web.ingv.it/barba
b) Carlo Doglioni, Professore Ordinario, Università di Roma “La Sapienza”
e-mail: [email protected]
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra
Universita' La Sapienza, P.le A. Moro 5, Box 11
00185 Roma - Italy
phone: +39-06-4991-4549
fax: +39-06-4454-729
Mobile +39-347-3825153
http://tetide.geo.uniroma1.it/DST/doglioni
Riassunto
La sismicità italiana è l’effetto di processi geodinamici associati alla
geodinamica della placca adriatica e della sua interazione con quelle africana
ed europea. Il progetto si propone come contenitore di nuovi dati, e di una
loro elaborazione il più possibile scevra da interpretazioni a priori, al fine di
arrivare a proporre una descrizione della struttura profonda e della sismicità in
3D il più possibile oggettiva e di pubblica utilità.
Il progetto intende continuare quanto già avviato positivamente con i
precedenti progetti finanziati dal DPC, nello studio delle strutture
sismogenetiche nel territorio italiano e nei mari adiacenti. In particolare S1 è
in buona parte la prosecuzione del precedente S2. Il nuovo progetto si articola
in 3 parti intercorrelate: 1) un’analisi ed una revisione dei dati geofisici a scala
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nazionale per meglio vincolare le condizioni al contorno della geodinamica; ad
esempio vi sarà un raffinamento della rilocalizzazione della sismicità
strumentale; i dati geodetici verranno il più possibile unificati per fornire una
soluzione unica e affidabile delle velocità orizzontali ricavate da stazioni
permanenti GPS per tutto il territorio italiano; sarà elaborata una nuova
mappa della Moho, vincolata dalla gravimetria e ricostruita tramite receiver
functions; una nuova mappa dello spessore della litosfera tramite le onde di
superficie; verrà messa in cantiere una mappa delle velocità verticali; sarà
emendata la mappa del flusso di calore in Italia; 2) sarà contestualmente
effettuato uno studio generale della reologia del territorio, tarato con le nuove
conoscenze di flusso di calore, velocità orizzontali e verticali, strain rate,
tensori di sforzo, composizione e spessore della crosta e del mantello
litosferico; tipologia e lunghezza delle faglie, il tutto al fine di poter stabilire a
priori le M massime stimabili per l’intero territorio nazionale; 3) infine, si
svolgeranno studi regionali in aree finora meno studiate come il fronte
appenninico padano, ionico e siciliano per riconoscere tramite sezioni
sismiche, rilevamenti di terreno, trincee, dati di pozzo, ecc. il campo di stress
e le strutture attive. Il progetto verrà integrato da studi sulla sismicità storica e
sugli tsunami. Inoltre verrà effettuato uno studio numerico e di evoluzione
spazio-temporale della sismicità. Tutti i risultati saranno inseriti in un database
3D gestibile in Arcgis e fruibile dalla comunità scientifica.
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Project S1
Title: Analysis of the seismic potential in Italy for the
evaluation of the seismic hazard
1. Coordinators
a) Salvatore Barba, Senior Researcher, INGV
E-mail [email protected]
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
Via di Vigna Murata 605
I - 00143 Roma
Phone +39-06-51860-362
Mobile +39-347-8449422
Skype sal.barba
http://web.ingv.it/barba
b) Carlo Doglioni, Full Professor, Sapienza University
E-mail: [email protected]
Università La Sapienza, P.le A. Moro 5, Box 11
00185 Roma - Italy
Phone +39-06-4991-4549
Fax +39-06-4454-729
Mobile +39-347-3825153
http://tetide.geo.uniroma1.it/DST/doglioni
2. Objectives
The study of seismicity is notoriously the integration of a multidisciplinary
approach. Geophysical, seismological, geodetic, geochemical, geological and
historical data are all useful in determining the seismic hazard of an area.
However it is practically impossible within a single 2-year project to approach
all the involved disciplines. In the S1 project we suggested to focus on
instrumental and historical seismology, earthquake geology, off-fault/marine
paleoseismology, earthquake geodesy, neotectonic models, and earthquake
probabilities, with the purpose of
- collecting new data and critically re-evaluate the existing databases that are
needed in the quantification of seismic hazard;
- promoting new studies focusing on specific fields of knowledge and in a few
unexplored areas;
- testing new and innovative approaches to evaluate seismic potential;
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- bounding slip rate values to use within probabilistic hazard estimates;
- prepare the way towards a future seismic hazard map of Italy.
The purposes will be pursued by co-financing in order to strenghten and
address activities that have been planned or already started by several
research groups and for which resources are partly available by other projects
and/or institutions.
In order to achieve these goals, the project is subdivided into three main
scientific parts:
1) The first is to provide new basic data aiming at a better description of the
Italian geodynamics: new maps are planned, such as those of the Moho
depth, lithospheric thickness, heat flow, and the improvement of critical
datasets through the relocation of the Italian seismicity, the generation of a
new velocity solution from GPS data and of vertical movements from
geological and instrumental data.
2) The second is to generate rheological profiles of the Italian lithosphere in
order to quantify the maximum deviatoric stress and to more accurately
determine where the geodetic deformation concentrates and the slip rates we
can expect on known or supposed seismogenic faults;
3) The third is to support new field studies and the reprocessing and
interpretation of seismic reflection profiles in less investigated areas.
3. State of the art
As of today, the seismic potential in Italy has been mainly assessed by
means of the national instrumental network monitoring, the historical
reconstruction of earthquakes, and by regional seismological and tectonic
studies. The reference seismic hazard map currently in use was compiled in
2004 (MPS Working Group, 2004, available at http://zonesismiche.mi.ingv.it/)
and transformed in law in 2006 (Gazzetta Ufficiale n.108, 11/05/2006). In this
reference map, the seismic source model (termed ZS9, Meletti et al., 2008)
and quantities derived from the parametric catalogue CPTI04 (CPTI Working
Group, 2004) were used as basic input to probabilistic seismic hazard
assessment (SEISRISK III; Bender and Perkins, 1987). The ZS9 seismic
source model was conceived in order to account for known active faults, for
seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes, for historical earthquakes
and instrumental seismicity.
After the compilation of the reference hazard map, a large project was
conceived, namely Project S2 “Assessing the seismogenic potential and the
probability of strong earthquakes in Italy”, coordinated by Dario Slejko
(INOGS-Trieste) and Gianluca Valensise (INGV) and funded within the 20042006 INGV-Department of Civil Defence agreement. This project developed
four lines of activity. In line one the problem of the completeness of the
geologic record of seismogenic faulting was faced for the first time. Accepting
that the individual sources will never reach the required completeness, the
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concept of Seismogenic Areas, also termed "composite seismogenic
sources", (Basili et al., 2008) was introduced. Seismogenic Areas are mapped
as polygons enclosing a number of individual faults, have fewer parameters
and are more loosely defined than the more "deterministic" individual
seismogenic sources and do not imply any earthquake recurrence model.
This new seismogenic-source concept supplied a scheme whose
incompleteness could be assessed and dealt with area by area. In a second
line of activity, new geological data were collected in a number of sites. These
studies allowed identifying and parameterize new seismogenic sources that
were immediately incorporated in the reference Database of Individual
Seismogenic Sources (DISS). They also described in detail the complexity of
surface processes and of active faulting. Studies on tsunami hazard were also
carried out through mapping of tsunami deposits in Sicily and Apulia and by
developing systematic scenarios of maximum wave heights along the coast of
southern Italy. The third line attempted to predict crustal velocities through a
geodynamic model blending a large set of experimental data into a single
deterministic scheme. A national mapping of geodetic strain rates was
produced. A Finite Elements Model based on a large variety of geologic and
tectonic data was developed in order to derive crustal velocities and strains as
well as fault slip rates. Although this modeling is still in an early stage, it has
already allowed deriving interesting inferences on the resolving power of the
different geophysical datasets. The fourth line attempted to parameterize the
behavior of a given set of seismogenic sources and to assign each source a
probability of generating a significant earthquake, in a time-dependent
perspective.
In the last few years, the parametric seismic catalogue of historical
earthquakes has been updated and a new version which introduces
sequences, CPTI07, will become available soon. The national seismic and
geodetic networks underwent a huge improvement and started producing data
with an increased detail. The SISMOS and EUROSISMOS projects nearly
completed the acquisition of raster images of past century seismograms.
Further improvements are on their way for the Italian seismic catalogue that
can be expanded to the analysis of focal mechanisms for events with M>3
and some areas (e.g. Northern Apennines, Calabria, Sicily) would have more
accurate hypocenter relocations with 1D and 3D velocity models. All these
improvements provide a number of specific databases that can now be more
profitably used.
New space geodesy techniques are now available for better quantifying the
short-term strain rate. Part of the strain is accommodated by viscous
deformation whereas the rest is dissipated by elastic rebound. In Italy, the
GPS network is presently quite well established and covers most of the
country. A better understanding about how the GPS velocity pattern compares
with lithosphere rheology, state of stress and strain rate would provide new
insights for identifying where stress accumulates/dissipates relative to seismic
release. However, the updates of other geophysical properties are well behind
schedule, as in the case of the heat flow map and the crustal and lithosphere
thickness. In addition, the present knowledge of the Moho depth is based only
on scattered seismic refraction data, some seismic reflection profile, and local
receiver function analysis.
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A number of areas are still far to be geologically well reconstructed from the
point of view of geometry and kinematics of active faults and an effort should
be done along this line of studies. A comprehensive dataset of seismogenic
sources is the well-established DISS, which, however, deserves continuous
updates; geological studies are required in a number of not sufficiently
explored areas, such as some coastal and offshore zones in the Adriatic, the
Ionian Sea and the southern Tyrrhenian Seas.
4. Project description
4.1 Organization and Management (Tasks and RU contribution)
The project is based on Research Units (RUs), Administration Units (AU),
Tasks, and a Coordination Unit.
RUs are in charge for the scientific achievements. The project is organized
in a way that most of the RUs are focused to few objectives.
AUs are administrative entities bound to a geographic locale; AUs coincide
with RUs except for INGV/Rome where several URs join in fewer AUs. AUs
are in charges of administrative duties and are listed in tables with the fund
distribution; when the AU is composed by more RUs, the allocation to the
single RUs is listed.
Tasks are the place where results and data produced by different RUs are
discussed and integrated, and where the work of RUs is addressed. The
project is built on different layers: data production and/or basic data analysis,
advanced analysis and modeling, and field studies, for several scientific
disciplines (Table 1). Tasks also serve to improve communication and data
sharing among participants. RUs will contribute to tasks depending on their
specific objectives. Four Tasks have been implemented (Table 2): A)
Earthquake geodesy and Modeling (including the definition of lithosphere
structure); B) Seismological data (with the exception of the lithosphere
structure) and Earthquake statistics; C) Earthquake Geology; D) Tsunamis.
Each task has a leader that may or may not be in charge of a RU.
The Coordination Unit has several purposes: organize the work flow with
task leaders, organize technical work to help RUs share data with common
formats and specifications (e.g., GIS), seek international collaboration with
renowned scientists on topics of interest for the whole project, and facilitate
organization of scientific meetings for project participants within and across
tasks.
4.2 Methodology
In this project, among the many possible approaches to study the
seismogenic potential, we focus on five disciplines, as required by the INGVDPC 2007-2009 agreement: instrumental and historical seismology,
earthquake geology, earthquake geodesy, and neotectonic models.
This project is aimed to determine seismic potential, not hazard. Although
so, it has to be seen from the hazard perspective. We discuss here the
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different methodologies and topics dealt within this project from the point of
view of the hazard estimates. Such a discussion is relevant to the
organization and logic of the project and, in turn, to the methodology.
We devise several approaches to construct hazard models based on the
results from different disciplines. Here we discuss three of them that can be
seen as extremes. The first one (approach A) is to use the results
independently from each other. Through the assumption that earthquakes
distribute in a Gutenberg-Richter fashion with b-value and Mmax fixed for the
whole country or regionalized, we can quantify time-independent or
Poissonian hazard. This approach would allow us to easily compare the
output of the five disciplines in terms of, e.g., earthquake rates (as in Ward,
2007), and to highlight inconsistencies and similarities among the different
outputs. This approach is fundamental to assess the uncertainties relying in
the different methods. Similar results in a certain area will strengthen the
different approaches, whereas awaited differences will highlight problems in
data coverage, regional dependencies of the methods, or systematic errors
which were previously unknown; all such differences should be addressed.
The second approach (B) goes through the integration of the different
methods (as in Wesson et al., 2003). In addition to previous efforts, there is a
new, yet challenging, opportunity for the near feature of incorporating slip rate
information derived from the crustal strain models. Slip rates derived from
strain models and/or assumed from geodesy could be combined with
geological slip rates using Bayes’ law to narrow slip-rate distributions. The
result could be turned into a recurrence rate distribution that can be combined
with likelihood functions derived from the historical earthquake occurrence
data. The third approach (C) involves physical earthquake simulators.
Physical earthquake simulators employ physical laws of stress accumulation
and release to generate long synthetic-earthquake catalogues as in the
approach developed by Ward (2007) for California. All the required elements
to start synthetic earthquake simulations are now available for Italy and
apparently there is no reason why a small step may not be attempted toward
the construction of an earthquake simulator for the fault system of Italy. This
first step will enlighten issues with fault and historical earthquake databases
that will be discussed within this project.
The approach A is now a standard – each discipline independently
produces an earthquake rate output, and different outputs can be compared
to find inconsistencies and to address uncertainties in results. Scientific
comparison will address future research where inconsistencies are found.
Approach C is instead in its early stage of development and needs
experimental practice and calibration. No more details than those published
by Ward (2007) are available.
Differently from the other two approaches, and in order to address the
project, the meaning of “finding narrower slip distributions using Bayes’ law”
(approach B) requires some additional consideration. The Italian earthquake
catalog is one of the longest and best studied in the world and can be used in
hazard studies based on spatially smoothed seismicity. However, the addition
of one or two new earthquakes in the catalog for a source has only a small
effect on the occurrence rate, indicating that greater improvement in SHA
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studies will come from improving fault sources, not smoothed-seismicity
sources. This means that the remaining catalog work should be used to help
further define fault sources, as for instance is done using the “Boxer
algorithm” (Gasperini et al., 1999) and that geologic rate estimates should be
of prime importance. The definition of parameters — size, magnitude, and
maximum and minimum slip rates — needed for characteristic fault sources,
already addressed within the former INGV-DPC project for many areas,
should be extended to the point of producing probability distributions both for
slip rate and for recurrence rate, in order to be more usable in hazard studies.
An important point to remember is that although likelihoods for recurrence
rates given n events in time T are derived from mathematical principals, in
contrast, distribution shapes for geological priors are selected both for
representing geological opinion and for convenience in calculation. For the
most part, they are not definable from first principles. Therefore, the important
processes for obtaining geologic slip rate priors are consultation and
negotiation in the presence of existing science facts.
Thus, we understand that the different disciplines have to be faced
independently in case A. On the other hand, the approach B requires that the
studies of earthquake catalogues serve to better define seismogenic areal
sources, that geodetic and stress data can help reducing the uncertainties on
model derived slip rates, that regional geomorphic approaches are to be used
to reduce geological slip rates uncertainties thorough the whole Italy.
In the view of approach B, too, we have planned the activities in order to
improve the seismotectonic information of not sufficiently explored areas,
such as the coastal zones where several active faults run close to the coast.
New studies based on classic structural and sedimentological analysis with
seismic reflection profiles, high resolution acquisition, field studies and
trenches have been planned to improve the quality of the data concerning the
occurring active faults and their slip-rate. Improving macroseismic attenuation
relations has also been planned in order to implement a new version of the
“Boxer algorithm” (Gasperini et al., 1999) in cases showing a gap in
macroseismic data, like for earthquakes close to the coasts or in the Seas. In
Italy the GPS network is presently quite well established and covering most of
the country. However a link with the rheology of the lithosphere, the state of
stress and the strain rate is still generally missing. Because the geodetic
approach to hazard requires a reliable "seismogenic thickness" too, continued
efforts ought to be made to map this out as early as possible. As for the
seismic catalogue, it has to be uniformed to connect the earlier databases
(CSI 1.1, containing earthquakes till 2002) to the modern national seismic
network, upgraded in 2005-2006. Stress data, from borehole breakouts and
focal mechanisms, have to be increased in number, in order to better
constrain models and kinematic interpretations. DISS database has to be
improved and uncertainties on geological slip rates to be reduced based on
regional approaches. Moreover, all of these datasets have to be publicly
available, in order to match models derived by different assumptions and/or
parameters.
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Earthquake Geodesy
Vertical velocities
Relative vertical movements in the short term can be determined through
satellite geodesy and tide gauge measurements. Two methods will be applied
during this project: satellite altimetry and satellite interferometry.
In the case of satellite altimetry, the difference of the level change relative
to the earth crust and the level change relative to the satellite orbit will give
the crustal vertical movement. Statistical analyses of tide gauge stations by
least squares will be performed and satellite altimetric observations
(Topex/Poseidon and Jason 1) will be analyzed on regular grid in the period
1992-2008. The analysis will be carried on for all the available tide gauge
stations. In case of the satellite interferometry, the multitemporal InSAR
technique (Berardino et al., 2002) will be based on the combined processing
of a large number of differential interferograms at small baseline. These latter
are combined with a minimum-norm criterion applied to the deformation
velocity and based on the application of a singular value decomposition
(SVD). We chose as a test case the Crotone Peninsula, where 4 frames are
sufficient to cross Calabria from the Ionian Sea to the Tyrrhenian Sea. In the
same area, the SAR will be calibrated with the GPS permanent stations. All
instrumental observations of vertical velocities will be confronted with those
derived from geology.
Horizontal velocities
Each daily solution is realized by different procedures and software,
particular care has to be taken in order to express all the time series in a
common and stable reference frame. It will be implement a rigorous
combination strategy based on the complete covariance matrices and a
convenient handling of constraints as described in Davies et al. (2000). Each
loose solution will be combined each day into a global daily loose solution
consisting in the union of all the considered sites (Bianco et al. 2003; Dong et
al., 1998). Furthermore, it will be possible to assess the accuracy of each
site’s estimate comparing the intrinsic repeatability of each solution. Signal
stability will be evaluated by performing noise analysis in geodetic coordinate
time series. The official ITRF2005 (International Terrestrial Reference Frame)
will be adopted to realize the common reference system. Thus the daily global
network solutions will be rigidly transformed into the ITRF2005 frame
estimating translations and scale parameters through at least 11 core sites
already included in the daily solutions. All the transformed daily solutions will
be stacked into a normal equation matrix and site positions and velocities will
be estimated simultaneously along with annual signals and sporadic offsets at
epochs of instrumental changes. The ‘fiducial’ velocity solution, of
fundamental importance for the definition of the Italian reference system, will
consist of stable and repeatable sites with sufficient observational history (>5
years). The new Italian reference frame will be useful in various geodetic
applications also not strictly connected to this project.
Strain and slip rates
Based on not-yet public geodetic data, the strain rate tensor will be
computed for regular and irregular grids under the assumption that the crust
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deforms as a continuum (Haines and Holt, 1993; Kreemer and Hammond,
2007). Based on the same data, fault slip-rates will be computed by dividing
the region in fault-bounded blocks and solving for the rotation of the blocks
and the magnitude of the style of slip on the bounding faults (McCaffrey,
2007; Meade and Hager, 2005). To have more stable strain-rate estimated,
however, surface strain rate and its uncertainty will also be computed
according to Caporali et al. (2003).
Instrumental and historical seismology
Earthquake location
Earthquake catalogues are the basic tools that furnish parametric data for
seismic hazard evaluation, studies on evolution of seismic sequences and
earthquake occurrence.
The Catalogue of Italian Seismicity, currently at the 1.1 version (CSI 1.1),
will be updated until 2007 (CSI 2.0) by using Hypoellipse program as
reference technique. The magnitude will be reported in the new catalogue as
follows: seismic bulletins sent to INGV from all institutions managing seismic
networks during the period 2003-2007, ML computed in collaboration with the
MedNet data-centre, ML computed from the National Seismic Network
recordings, Mw and Mb from International catalogues for strongest deep
earthquakes. The catalogue will have intermediate “alpha” and “beta” release
for restricted use. These will be released after the phase association with local
network and without all the quality controls and post-processing that a public
seismic catalogue is expected to have passed. Such versions will give other
participant the possibility to have a catalogue until 2007 to start the activities
that depend on the seismic catalogue. In collaboration among different RUs
and with project S3, it will be attempted to compute magnitude regression
parameters from the present (real time seismic network) and extrapolate such
parameters to the past. In this way, the magnitude recalibration will make past
data usable together with the magnitudes computed in the real-time system –
thus allowing to easily integrate new data to the CSI for the purpose of this
project (and S2 too). The CSI 2.0 and its pre-releases will be the standard
catalogue used by all activities in this project, from tomography to deformation
model calibration, from geological interpretations to statistical analysis. Using
the same catalogue is useful for comparing different methodologies.
Hypocenter locations for specific regional studies will be performed by nonlinear and/or probabilistic algorithm (e.g., Lomax et al., 2000; Presti et al.,
2008) and reliability of the detected “prospective” seismogenic sources will be
assess through statistical tests especially where the network geometries are
not optimal.
Crustal and lithospheric structure
P- and S-wave velocities will be compute in the crust by performing a
linearized 3D inversion of P- and S-phases arrival times (Zhao et al., 1992; Di
Stefano and Chiarabba, 2002) also including a seismic discontinuity with
variable topography. The LSQR algorithm (Paige and Saunders, 1992) will
allow handling a large number of observations and model parameters. A-priori
information retrieved from Controlled Source Seismology (CSS) experiments,
and from teleseismic Receiver Function (RF) studies will be accounted as
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described in Waldhauser (1996). The RF data from the recently upgraded
national seismic network will be analyzed by applying standard methods
(Langston, 1979; Sambridge, 1999) and, where possible, results will be in turn
calibrated with the body-wave velocity model. Structural models and (possibly
different) velocity models will be merged on a common grid by mean of linear
interpolation between the grid nodes along which the models are defined. The
common grid will be used thorough the project, within deformation models and
to calculate (as in Lomax et al., 2000) synthetic P and S travel times through
the 3D model. Best local 1D model will also be derived to locate seismicity in
specific areas within the project.
Structural models for 1°x1° cells will be computed through surface wave
tomography using dispersion curves of Rayleigh fundamental mode along
properly selected new wave paths in the Italian region with respect to Panza
et al. (2007). A non-linear inversion will be performed where the unknown
independent parameters are S-wave velocities and thickness of layers. In
order to explore the S-wave velocity structure down to a depth of about 300
km, group velocity dispersion curves between 7 and 80 sec will be derived
from the waveforms recorded at regional distances (300 km – 4000 km),
longer period group velocity data will be collected from global studies (e.g.
Ritzwoller and Levshin, 1998), and used to extend the period range up to 150
sec.
A priori information will be taken from seismic profiles (from the literature or
reanalyzed within this project), Receiver Function, and from the 3D crustal
model (produced within this project) to fix the thickness h and the
compressional velocity Vp of the uppermost crustal layers, assuming that they
are formed by Poissonian solids. A smooth 3D model of the lithosphereasthenosphere system will be defined by minimizing the local lateral velocity
gradient. The degree of consistency and/or stability of such body-wave, RF,
and surface-wave complementary models will be assessed by using the “a
priori” crustal 3D velocity model and RF Moho depth as starting points of the
non-linear inversion scheme based on the surface waves.
The stress field
The knowledge of crustal and lithospheric structures is fundamental in
computing stress axes and strain rates. The inversion for the full earthquake
moment tensor will be performed through the waveform inversion technique
by Sileny at al. (1992). Differently from other methods, such a method is
reliable also when M12 and M13 components are not. Earthquake depths will
also better constrained (Guidarelli and Panza, 2007).
Earthquake focal mechanisms will also be retrieved from published
literature. After evaluating the formal correctness criteria and correcting what
is possible to correct they will be used to update the EMMA database. In
addition, the quality of the focal solution will be evaluated, based on criteria
established during the project, and a weight will be assigned to data.
Earthquake Geology
In Italy, with more than 100 individual faults and an often deceptive
geologic setting, slip rate accuracy cannot be expected to improve on a fault
by fault basis. Regional geological data instead, can help constrain tectonic
deformation rates across faults or fault systems and make better use of
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scattered point data from paleoseismology. We will review slip-rate
determination methods from scientific literature to critically address their
strengths and weaknesses, and better assess slip rate uncertainties. In
addition, previous studies will be used to seek regional geological constraints
to tectonic rates of deformation. Original field work will complement selected
cases identified within the project. Calabria will be studied through a
multidisciplinary approach. Long-term (10-100 ky) and short-term (10-16 y)
rates of vertical tectonic movements will be jointly analyzed by geologic data,
and satellite altimetric data. As for the test case of Crotone peninsula, the
comparison is brought forth also with multitemporal InSAR data. Geologic
data will be collected through aerial-photo analysis and field reconnaissance
of raised coastal and alluvial terraces. Dating of terrace deposits will rely on
radiocarbon and OSL techniques. To obtain vertical rates of tectonic
movements, terraces will be correlated with sea-level stands. In the DinaridesAlbanides-Hellenides, geological data will be integrated with seismicity data to
better characterize geometry, kinematics, and rate of deformation of the thrust
system running along the eastern coast of the Adriatic Sea. Reinterpretation
of geological cross sections based on seismic reflection profiles and analysis
of MT solutions based on broadband seismic data of recent (post-2004) major
earthquakes will be carried out. The kinematic consistency of seismogenic
sources will be evaluated by statistically testing the geometrical compatibility
of slip rate vectors at single and multiple fault junctions (e.g. Gabrielov et al.,
1996) and the angular deviations between slip unit vectors and stress field
indicators (e.g. P and T axes of focal mechanisms). The completeness of
seismogenic sources will be estimated by balancing geological and historical
seismic moment rate within tectonically consistent macro-regions. The
uncertainty arising from the trade off between fault area and slip rate will also
be evaluated. The long-term seismic potential of faults will be modeled under
the assumption of “characteristic” behavior for the individual sources included
in DISS (other behavior models will be analyzed separately). We will
determine the extent to which the application of strain-derived slip rates
decreases the variability of fault occurrence probabilities obtained from
geologic slip rates and historical earthquakes. Probabilistic distributions for
slip and strain rates will be obtained through a Bayesian posterior slip rate
distribution. A similar approach will also be used for the occurrence intervals
as defined by Akinci et al. (2008). Uncertainties of the 30, 50 and 100 years
probability of occurrence will be estimated using a Monte Carlo procedure for
the time-independent and the time-dependent cases by varying or defining a
statistical distribution for the periodicity parameter.
Part of the geological fieldwork will concern the identification and
parameterization of seismogenic sources (individual and areal sources). The
activity will be brought forth in Sicily, Calabria, Southern Alps, Po Plain, buried
Apennines front, and the Seas.
In Sicily, structural field analyses will be integrated with aerial photograph
and satellite images interpretation, in order to perform detailed field mapping
of the selected tectonic lineaments, kinematic analysis of the main fault
planes and associated minor structure, estimation of the cumulative offset
along the selected tectonic lineaments and its partitioning vs. the time, based
on stratigraphy of syn-tectonic deposits. Morphological analyses on the recent
fault segments using two combined datasets to obtain the vertical and lateral
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components of tectonic displacement will be done through the analysis of the
Late Quaternary marine terraces and of their deformation around the selected
structures, and the analysis of the lateral offset of fluvial streams crossing the
selected structures. The deformation-rate will be desumed by relating the
displaced morphological features to distinct eustatic cycles and associated
climatic changes that accompanied the regional uplift of the area. These
morphological criteria would provide the time-resolution of the OIT –
chronological scale, to be compared with available chronological data. In
Calabria, paleogeodetic analysis of geomorphological and geo-archeological
markers will be performed, together with structural mapping and highresolution ground-based lidar scanning of Holocene markers and RTK
profiling of Late Pleistocene terraces and subsequent radiometric age
determination (14C bulk/AMS, 10Be; U-Th, ESR). As Calabria accretionary
prism is mostly under the Sea, in order to study potential seismogenic sources
it is also required to reanalyze seismic profiles (AGIP zone-F ,CROP, MSOGS and others), litho-crono-stratigraphic borehole logs, and of morphobathymetric and shallow seismic data (sub-bottom, chirp , Sidescan sonar,
Multibeam).
In the seas, different methodologies will be applied according to the
available data. In the central Adriatic off-shore, the seismic profiles will be
interpreted to map the main seismic horizons (e.g., Top Messiniano, Top
Scaglia calcarea, Top Fucoidi) and to define the geometry, the phases of
tectonic activity, and the slip rates (by means of back-stripping techniques) of
the recognized thrusts (special care will be devoted to active structures).
Some CROP seismic profiles located north of Gargano will be reprocessed in
order to highlight the deep geometry of the active tectonic structures. In
southern Adriatic, geomorphological analysis of multibeam bathymetric data
will be carried out to identify sea-floor offsetting faults, whereas seismicstratigraphic analysis of high-resolution CHIRP-sonar profiles will allow
quantifying the vertical offsets of faults. The analysis of sediment cores and
core-correlation exercises will allow setting the age of deformed materials and
post deformation deposits if any. In the Ionian Sea, already available
geophysical data will be reanalyzed and the acquisition of well targeted
sediment samples will be acquired in key areas during a cruise with R/V CNRUrania (spring, 2008). The identification of active faults within the accretionary
complex will be addressed through the analysis of morphobathymetric and
CHIRP data acquired in May 2007 with R/V OGS-Explora in the outer
accretionary wedge in the frame of cooperation between ISMAR, University of
Parma, University of Bologna and OGS. The seismo-stratigraphic
interpretation of the seismic reflection profiles will constitute the scientific and
methodological base to perform the research project. The seismic lines will be
used to detail the shallow and deep structural setting of the External Calabrian
Arc as well as to identify the major stratigraphic units involved in deformation.
The availability of geophysical data with very different vertical resolution
(decimeters versus kilometers) has the potential to allow a very accurate
identification of active faults and to interpret them in the frame of the regional
geodynamic framework. In the Tyrrhenian side of Calabria, seismic lines from
the BAST database will be interpreted. The BAST database contains about
55000 km of seismic lines and about 3700 km of well logs. AGIP Spa will
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integrate this database with seismic lines for the area of Sila Piccola-Crati
River.
In the Southern Alps, trenching, Paleoseismic analyses, and shallow
geophysical prospecting for the identification of other paleoseismic sites along
the Monte Netto anticline will be performed. A compilation of published and
unpublished data on the subsurface geology of the study area, including water
borehole stratigraphy and geophysical data, will help to constrain the
interpretation. At a larger scale, the detailed reconstruction of the stratigraphic
record in the study area, with a particular attention to the Quaternary, will
provide chronologic and paleogeographic data, useful to constrain the activity
of the detected tectonic structures or to suggest their presence, when blind.
Beneath the Po Plain the geometry of the basal detachment surface of the
Northern Apennines accretionary prism will be reconstructed by integrating
the reinterpretation of the accessible seismic profiles and geological crosssections. Moreover, an improved definition of the geometry at depth of some
thrusts already identified as seismogenic sources will be carried out (e.g.,
ITSA050 - Poggio Rusco-Migliarino, ITSA051 - Novi-Poggio Renatico,
ITGG107 – Mirandola).
In the marchigiano-abruzzese on-shore area, the results of field surveys
will be integrated with the re-interpretation of the available seismic profiles. In
this way, we will reconstruct the current tectonic setting of this region.
For all the geological activities of the project, the integration with
instrumental seismicity and historical seismicity will be carried out, through the
interaction among different RUs - at a Task level, to allow the same criteria to
be adopted thorough Italy.
Neotectonic modeling
Combining the velocity models, derived from non-linear tomographic
inversion with the distribution vs. depth of hypocenters, we will assess the
brittle properties of the crust. This approach reduces the ambiguities in
structural models derived by body waves – receiver function as it concerns
the Moho boundary.
Making use of the new information acquired in the framework of this
project, the dynamic numerical models will be upgraded to improve the
resolution. Tectonic stresses will be computed employing the equation of
momentum conservation and Galerkin approach (Bird, 1999). We will
essentially use the finite-element codes SHELLS (Bird, 1999) and MARC
(MSC.Software, 2006); the first code to model the geodynamics of the Central
Mediterranean, the second to build detailed models at local scale. SHELLS
adopts the thin-shell approximation while solving the stress and the mass
conservation equations with specified rheologies, densities, and boundary
conditions. Results are anelastic velocities, thus of long term tectonics, stress,
and their orientations. Approximations used in SHELLS are: anelastic
deformation; constant thermal properties and vertical heating conduction;
lithostatic vertical stress; vertical integration of stress; two-layer continental
lithosphere. Therefore the knowledge of the deep temperatures and the
surface heat flow is required to determine the rheological behavior and to
compute the thickness of the seismogenic layer. After collecting deep
temperatures and heat flow data from existing well data in collaboration with
National Research Council if Italy (CNR/IGG) we will interpolate them to
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obtain an updated map of the heat flow for the whole area. In order to
evaluate the aseismic component of the deformation, a numerical experiment
will be conducted in Calabria. Transient deformations will be investigated
through Bayesian detection in GPS data (Pollino-Castrovillari temporary GPS
campaigns and CAT/SCAN project CGPS stations), and fault slip rate will be
modeled based on the forward Okada elastic half-space model, to evaluate
surface velocities due to slip velocities on the fault, and on the Occam
inversion method in its linearized form.
Models can be compared with borehole breakout stress orientations, GPS
velocities (after elastic correction), tectonic regime, vertical velocities and
seismicity of the area. As for vertical velocities and seismicity the method is
still under development and testing. Datasets used for comparison will be
analyzed to address residuals. Depending on possible new information that
may become available after the first year of the project, recalibration of the
model may become necessary and a new mesh to be built thereby
incorporating the new datasets with at least one preliminary version.
In areas where more realistic modeling would be needed, with respect to
that of SHELLS, we will build more detailed models using MARC (e.g., in the
Northern Apennines onshore front, where a intermediate seismicity layer is
present). In these cases, the model can incorporate a more detailed crustal
structure, non-stationary heat flow, non-uniform rheology, and the presence of
detachments, depending on the availability of information in the area.
By the end of the project, the error analysis (L1 or L2 norm, depending on
data) will allow us to select the best models, that is to say the models that
minimize deviations between data computed by the modeling and
observations.
Earthquake Statistics and probability
We intend to develop models that use slip-rate as a driving parameter. The
significance of these models will be evaluated by comparing their fitting to
specific data sets with that of other models (stress release models). We will
consider strong earthquakes drawn from the catalog CPTI04 or any more
recent version; as for the spatial subdivision of the Italian territory we will
consider the eight regions that are one of the deliverables of the project S2,
2004-2006 DPC-ING agreement, identified on the basis of tectonic processes,
and the seismogenic areas of DISS3 data base included in those regions.
Based on time-averaged slip-rates and observed earthquakes, a hazard
function will be defined. Parameters will be defined in a spatial subset of data
and forecasts will be computed in a different subset. The validation of the
models will be also carried out simulating the probability distribution of the
time from the next event and comparing the forecast “forward” on possible
new recorded data or “backward” on suitable time intervals assumed as test
periods and therefore excluded by the data set used in updating parameters.
It will be also possible to consider the stationary Poisson process as reference
model; to this end the time-independent seismicity rate of each region will be
estimated. We will follow methods of Bayesian statistics which allow us to
express the uncertainty on each estimated variable through the corresponding
a posteriori probability distribution. From these distributions we will draw
samples in order to estimate quantiles and the main summaries of a
distribution like: mean, variance, median. Stochastic simulation methods are
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also in program in order to forecast the time of the next event in each tectonic
region varying the stochastic model under study; the problem of multiple
ruptures will be faced or at least discussed. Also, the comparison between the
strain rate and the observed seismicity, in wide regions as well as by known
tectonic structures, will be based on rates derived by the permanent GPS
stations and of the earthquake catalogue. This analysis will give indications on
the partition of the stored strain into seismic and aseismic components. The
statistical method of partitioning seismogenic areas gives indications on the
probabilistic distribution of faults inside the seismogenic areas and of the
related seismic moment.
Statistical analysis of seismic series, now mainly employs maximum
likelihood methods to evaluating the completeness of datasets and estimating
model parameters as well as information criteria (Akaike, 1974; Schwarz,
1978) to evaluating the goodness of fit. Such methods are strictly linked
among each other and can now easily applied even to large datasets due to
the power of modern computers. In particular the information criteria represent
the quantitative implementation of the Occam razor. The studies available in
the literature seems to indicate that occurrence models with decreasing
(clustering) or constant (random) hazard with time are common and can be
found both at short and long time scale. On the contrary occurrence models
with increasing hazard (characteristic earthquake, time- and slip-predictable)
are rarely observed although they are used in some probabilistic hazard
estimates (Pace et al., 2006). A particular kind of occurrence (short term
clustering), which can be immediately applicable to hazard estimates is that
one followed by the aftershocks of strong earthquakes. In Southern California,
the probability of aftershocks is commonly estimated and displaced in near
real-time maps (Gestenberger et al., 2007) on the basis of the simple Omori
model. The application to Italy of such methodology could take advantage of
some recently published studies (Lolli e Gasperini, 2003; 2006; Gasperini e
Lolli, 2006) as well as of other investigations, currently in progress, aimed to
verifying the applicability of alternative occurrence models (e.g. stretched
exponential, band limited power law) as well as to defining the productivity
and the duration of the aftershock sequences in our country.
Tsunamis
Overall, we propose to build an historical and geological tsunami georeferenced database, including maximum run-up estimate, maximum in-land
inundation distance, tsunami recurrence based on geological data in order to
furnish a significant contribution to the estimate of the local hazard
assessment and to the tsunami wave modeling. In detail: a) Tsunami deposit
identification, characterization and dating in order to estimate the inundation
recurrence time site by site; b) Tsunami deposit in-land distribution, in order to
identify the maximum inundation distance of the tsunami waves;c) Upgrading
the Catalogo degli Tsunami Italiani (Tinti et al., 2007). d) Source mechanism
of the 1905 Calabria and 1908 Messina tsunamigenic earthquakes. Study
areas will be the Eastern Sicily (Priolo-Augusta area and PortopaloMarzamemi area) and Southern Calabria (S. Eufemia and Gioia Tauro areas
and Messina Straits and Sibari Plain).
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4.3 Activity (definition of the task activity)
The project is subdivided into three main scientific parts (Table 1):
1) Geodynamic framework of the Italian seismicity (Basic data)
- Geometry and depth of the faults and decoupling planes affecting the
country (RUs 3.03, 3.08, 3.09, 3.10, 3.11, and 3.14)
- Velocity field through GPS and SAR data (RUs 1.01, 1.02, 1.04)
- Stress field through borehole breakouts and earthquake focal
mechanisms (RUs 2.03, 2.05, 3.06)
- Upgrade of the Italian Seismic Catalog (CSI, 2003-2007) (RU 2.01)
- Historical seismicity, macroseismicity (RU 4.01, 4.02)
- Upgrade of the DISS catalogue (RU 3.12, 3.13)
- Reduction of uncertainties in slip-rate based on regional approaches
and vertical velocities (RU 3.01)
- Validation of seismogenic sources (RU 3.01, T.01)
- Seismicity rates and probability of occurrence of large earthquakes (RU
S.01, S.02, S.03, S.04, T.01)
2) Rheological study of the Italian lithosphere (Rheology)
- Heat flow (RU 5.03)
- Lithosphere structure of Italy (RU 2.02, 2.04)
- Strain rate (RU 1.03, 5.03)
- Seismic coupling coefficient and energy balance (RU 3.01, T.01)
- Numerical models to constrain seismic potential (RU 5.01, 5.02, 5.03)
3) Regional upgrade of the seismic evaluation in specific areas (Field
studies)
- Relocation with 1D and 3D velocity models of the seismicity in the
Northern Apennines, Central Apennines, Calabria and Sicily (RU 2.01,
2.03)
- Revision of specific seismogenic sources (RU 6.04)
- Analysis of the Tsunami recurrence and magnitude along the Italian
coasts (RU 6.01, 6.02, 6.03, 6.05)
- Regional studies in the buried front of the Apennines and the Southern
Alps (RU 3.05, 3.07)
- Regional studies in Calabria and Sicily (RU 3.02, 3.04)
1) The first is to provide new basic data aiming at a better description of the
Italian geodynamics: new maps are planned, such as the Moho depth, the
lithosphere thickness, the heat flow chart, the relocation of the Italian
seismicity, the generation of a new velocity solution from GPS data, and the
vertical movements from geological and instrumental data.
2) The second is to generate rheological profiles of the Italian lithosphere
and to quantify the maximum deviatoric stress expected for the different
investigated areas; these profiles will help to determine more accurately
where the geodetic deformation concentrates and to estimates expected slip
rates on known or supposed seismogenic faults.
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3) The third is to support new field studies, including tsunami, and the
reprocessing and interpretation of seismic reflection profiles in less
investigated areas.
Four Tasks have been implemented (Table 2): A) Earthquake geodesy and
Modeling (including the definition of lithosphere structure); B) Seismological
data (with the exception of the lithosphere structure) and Earthquake
statistics; C) Earthquake Geology; D) Tsunamis.
Activities have been listed with a priority ranging from 1 to 3, according to
the impact and immediacy of the activity on the determination of seismic
potential (Table 3). Activities with a nationwide target have been assigned a
higher priority than regional activities. If the activity has been required by the
INGV-DPC agreement (“allegato tecnico”), the priority has been set to 1. The
table with main activities and their priority can be found in section
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7. Workplanning.
Unless a better solution is found during the first project meeting, reference
databases are going to be CPTI04, DISS 3.04, EMMA, and CSI 1.1 at the
beginning of the project. At the very early stage of the project, the GPS
velocities derived during the last INGV-DPC agreement will be used, whereas
a preliminary consensus velocity derived during this project will be available.
The same holds for the stress direction (Montone et al., 2004) dataset, which
will be updated with new data. During the course of the project, CPTI07 will be
available from external sources, whereas DISS, EMMA 2, and CSI will be
updated.
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1.01
Braitenberg
1.02
Caporali
1.04 Devoti
2.01
Chiarabba
2.03 Neri
2.05
Vannucci
3.01 Basili 4.01
Lavecchia
3.03
4.02
Faccenna Palombo
3.06
Mariucci
3.08
Polonia
3.10
Scrocca
3.11 Seno
3.12
Vannoli
3.13 Zonno
S.01
Gasperini
S.02
Rotondi
S.03 Slejko
S.04 De
Rubeis
1.03
2.02 Di
D’Agostino Stefano
2.04
Romanelli
3.01 Basili
5.01 Aoudia
3.06
Mariucci
5.02
Crescentini
5.03 Megna
2.01
Chiarabba
2.03 Neri
3.02
Catalano
3.04
Ferranti
3.05
Galadini
3.07
Michetti
3.09 Pucci
3.14
Solarino
Field studies
Rheology
Basic data
Earthquake Instrumental Earthquake Historical Neotectonic Tsunamis Earthquake
geodesy seismology geology seismology modeling
statistics
6.01
Barbano
6.02 De
Martini
6.03
Mastronuzzi
6.04
Piatanesi
6.05 Tinti
Table 1 - Activities of Research Units
Task
A
B
C
D
Topic
Earthquake
geodesy and
Modeling
Seismological
data, Earthquake
statistics
Earthquake
Geology
Tsunamis
Task leader
TBD
Gasperini
Paolo
Basili Roberto
De Martini
Paolo Marco
RUs
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04
2.02
2.04
5.01
5.02
5.03
2.01
2.03
2.05
4.01
4.02
S.01
S.02
S.03
S.04
Table 2 - Task activities of RUs
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3.01
3.02
3.03
3.04
3.05
3.06
3.07
3.08
3.09
3.10
3.11
3.12
3.13
3.14
6.01
6.02
6.03
6.04
6.05
Priority Scale Impact Immediacy DPC
1
N
Y
Y
Any
1
R
Large
Y
Any
1
Any
Any
Any
Y
2
N
Y
N
Any
2
R
Y
Y
Any
3
N
Uncertain
Any
Any
3
R
Y
Any
Any
3
Any Research
Any
Any
Table 3 - Criteria to assign priorities. Scale N/R: National/Regional; Impact: effect on
the seismic potential; Immediacy: result directly usable; DPC: requested by the INGVDPC agreement.
5. Main references
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Trans. On Automatic Control AC, 19, 716-723.
Akinci, A., D. Perkins, A.M. Lombardi and R. Basili, (2008). Uncertainties in
probability of occurrence of strong earthquakes for fault sources in the Central
Apennines, Italy. (Submitted to JOSE).
Basili R., G. Valensise, P. Vannoli, P. Burrato, U. Fracassi, S. Mariano,
M.M. Tiberti, E. Boschi (2008), The Database of Individual Seismogenic
Sources (DISS), version 3: summarizing 20 years of research on Italy’s
earthquake geology, Tectonophysics, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2007.04.014.
Bender B. and D.M. Perkins (1987). SEISRISK III: a computer program for
seismic hazard estimation. U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin, 1772, 48 pp.
Bianco G., R. Devoti, V. Luceri, Combination of loosely constrained
solutions, IERS Technical Note N. 30, 107-109, 2003.
Bird, P. [1999] Thin-plate and thin-shell finite element programs for forward
dynamic modeling of plate deformation and faulting, Computers &
Geosciences, 25(4), 383-394.
Caporali, A., 2003. Average strain rate in the Italian crust inferred from a
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Permanent GPS Stations, Geophys. J. Int.155, 241-253.
Chiarabba C., Jovane L, and Di Stefano R. (2005) "A new view of Italian
seismicity using 20 years of instrumental recordings", Tectonophysics, Vol
395/3-4 pp 251-268.
CPTI Working Group (2004). Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani,
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http://emidius.mi.ingv.it/CPTI/.
Davies P., G. Blewitt, Methodology for global geodetic time series
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Di Stefano R. and Chiarabba C., (2002). Active source tomography at Mt.
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Dong D., T.A. Herring, R.W. King, Estimating regional deformation from a
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Gabrielov A., V. Keilis-Borok, and D.D. Jackson (1996). Geometric
incompatibility in a fault system. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 93, 3838-3842.
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aftershock rate equation: Implications for the forecasting of future sequences,
Phys. Earth Plan. Int., 156, 41-58.
Gasperini P., Bernardini F., Valensise G. and Boschi E. (1999). Defining
seismogenic sources from historical felt reports, Bull. Seism Soc. Am., 89, 94110.
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Aftershock Probabilities: Case Studies in California, Seism. Res. Lett., 70, 6677
Guidarelli, M., and Panza, G.F., 2007. INPAR, CMT and RCMT seismic
moment solutions compared for the strongest damaging events (M≥4.8)
occurred in the Italian region in the last decade, Rendiconti Accademia
Nazionale delle Scienze detta dei XL, Memorie di Scienze Fisiche e Naturali,
124°, Vol. XXX, t. I, pp. 81-98.
Haines, A.J. and W.E. Holt, A procedure to obtain the complete horizontal
motions within zones of distributed deformation from the inversion of strain
rate data, J. Geophys. Res., 98, 12,057-12,082, 1993.
Kreemer, C., and W.C. Hammond, Geodetic constraints on areal changes
in the Pacific-North America plate boundary zone: What controls Basin and
Range extension?, Geology, 35, 943-946, 2007.
Langston, C., 1979. Structure under mount rainier, washington, inferred
from teleseismic body waves. J. Geophys. Res. 84 (B9), 4749–4762.
Lolli B. and Gasperini P., (2003). Aftershocks hazard in Italy Part I:
Estimation of time-magnitude distribution model parameters and computation
of probabilities of occurrence. J. Seismol., 7, 235-257.
Lolli B., and P., Gasperini, (2006). Comparing different models of
aftershock rate decay: The role of catalog incompleteness in the first times
after mainshock, Tectonophysics, 423, 43–59.
Lomax, A., J. Virieux, P. Volant and C. Berge, 2000. Probabilistic
earthquake location in 3D and layered models: Introduction of a MetropolisGibbs method and comparison with linear locations, in Advances in Seismic
Event Location Thurber, C.H., and N. Rabinowitz (eds.), Kluwer, Amsterdam,
101-134.
McCaffrey, R., Block kinematics of the Pacific - North America plate
boundary in the southwestern US from inversion of GPS, seismological, and
geologic data, Journal of Geophysical Research 110, B07401,
doi:10.1029/2004JB003307, 2005.
Meade, B. J. and B. H. Hager, (2005), Block models of crustal motion in
southern California constrained by GPS measurements, Journal of
Geophysical Research-Solid Earth, 110, B03403, doi:10.1029/2004JB003209.
Meletti C., F. Galadini, G. Valensise, M. Stucchi, R. Basili, S. Barba, G.
Vannucci, and E. Boschi (2008). The ZS9 seismic source model for the
seismic hazard assessment of the Italian territory, Tectonophysics, 450(1),
85-108, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2008.01.003.
48/193
MPS Working Group (2004), Redazione della mappa di pericolosità sismica
prevista dall'Ordinanza PCM 3274 del 20 marzo 2003. Rapporto Conclusivo
per il Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, INGV, Milano-Roma, aprile 2004,
65 pp. + 5 appendixes. http://zonesismiche.mi.ingv.it
MSC.Software Corporation Home Page, 2006. MSC.Software Corporation40 Years of Virtual Product Development Expertise. 21 Jul. 2006
<http://www.mscsoftware.com/>.
Pace B., L., Peruzza, G. La vecchia and P. Boncio (2006). Layered
Seismogenic Source Model and Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Analyses in
Central Italy, Bull Seism. Soc. Am., 96, 107-132.
Panza, G.F., Peccerillo, A., Aoudia, A., and Farina, B., 2007. Geophysical
and petrological modelling of the structure and composition of the crust and
upper mantle in complex geodynamic settings: the Tyrrhenian Sea and
surroundings, Earth-Science Reviews, 80, 1-46.
Presti D., Orecchio B, Falcone G., Neri G. (2008). Linear versus non-linear
earthquake location and seismogenic fault detection in the southern
Tyrrhenian sea, Italy, Geophys. J. Int., 112, B12303,
doi:10.1029/2006JB004791.
Ritzwoller, M.H., and Levshin, A.L., 1998. Eurasian surface wave
tomography: Group velocities. J. Geophys. Res., 103, B3: 4839-4878.
Sambridge, M., 1999. Geophysical inversion with a neighbourhood
algorithm I searching a parameter space. Geophys. J. Int. 138, 479–494.
Schwarz, G. (1978). Estimating the dimension of a model. Annals of
Statistics, 6, 461-464.
Sileny J., Panza G.F. and Campus P., 1992. Waveform inversion for point
source moment tensor retrieval with optimization of hypocentral depth and
structural model. Geophys. J. Int., 108, 259-274.
Tinti S., Maramai A., Graziani L. (2007). The Italian Tsunami Catalogue
(ITC), Version 2. Available on-line at: http://www.ingv.it/servizi-erisorse/BD/catalogo-tsunami/catalogo-degli-tsunami-italiani
Waldhauser, F., 1996. A parameterized three-dimensional Alpine crustal
model and its application to teleseismic wavefront scattering, Ph.D. thesis,
ETH-Zurich, Switzerland.
Ward, S. N. (2000). San Francisco Bay Area Earthquake Simulations: A
step toward a Standard Physical Earthquake Model, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am.,
90, 370-386.
Ward, S. N. (2007). Methods for evaluating earthquake potential and
likelihood in and around California. Seism. Res. Letters, 78, 121-133.
Wesson R.L., W.H. Bakun, and D.M. Perkins (2003). Association of
earthquakes and faults in the San Francisco Bay area using Bayesian
inference. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 93(3), 1306-1332.
Zhao, D., A. Hasegawa, and S. Horiuchi (1992). Tomographic imaging of p
and s wave velocity structure beneath northeastern japan, J. Geophys. Res.,
97 (B13), 19,909–19,928.
6. Deliverables
In the following, deliverables of immediate use for Dipartimento della
Protezione Civile are indicated with keyword DPC (all others deliverables are
of future use). Numbers in parenthesis indicate the expected deadline of
49/193
deliverables (semesters since the beginning of the project). When two
deadlines are indicated it means that a preliminary version is planned (mainly
for internal use and to improve communication among RUs and with the other
S-projects).
•
•
•
•
•
Technical report illustrating the results of all estimations of the seismic
potential in Italy, including discussion about uncertainties, strengths
and weaknesses of results, analysis in terms of SHA perspective (2, 4)
(DPC)
GIS database and/or maps of all data and results at regional scale (see
details in RU forms) (2, 4) (DPC)
GIS database and/or maps of all data and results at national scale:
o Maximum Observable Shaking map of Italy (e.g., PGA, IS) using
a finite-fault stochastic approach (2, 4) (DPC)
o Near-field boundaries with respect to known seismogenic
sources through NF/FF ratio (2, 4) (DPC)
o Probability of occurrence for earthquakes (generated by
individual seismogenic sources and in seismogenic areas of
DISS) (4) (DPC)
o Maximum magnitude of known seismogenic sources (3, 4)
(DPC)
o Coordinates, velocities, generic offsets of a selected subset of
stable GPS sites (> 5 years) derived from the GPS time series
(Italian reference system) (2, 4)
o Coordinates, velocities and non-instrumental offsets of all
permanent GPS sites derived from the GPS time series (2, 4)
o Crust horizontal velocities derived from data and numerical
models (2, 4)
o Stress map derived from data and numerical models (2, 4)
o Strain-rate map derived from data and numerical models (4)
o Model-predicted slip rate and fault kinematics relative to (a)
modeled faults (also those not defined in DISS) and (b) DISS
seismogenic sources (4)
Updated version of existing GIS databases:
o Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS) (2, 4)
(DPC)
o Catalog of Italian Tsunamis (4)
o Instrumental Seismic Catalog (CSI) (2, 4)
o The database of Earthquake Mechanisms of European Area
(EMMA) (2, 4)
GIS database and/or maps of all scientific data produced in the project
(e.g., 3D reference national mesh, 3D P-wave and S-wave crustal
velocity model, 3D Surface wave lithosphere velocity model, Map of the
crust and lithosphere thickness, Vertical crustal velocities for the Italian
coasts) (4)
50/193
7. Workplanning
(Main activities only)
Phase I
RU
T RU resp.
ACT # Pri
1.01
1.01
A Braitenberg
A Braitenberg
A1.01.1
A1.01.2
1.01
A Braitenberg
A1.01.3
CaporaliA D’AgostinoDevoti
1.03 A D'Agostino
1.02
1.03
1.04
A1.03.2
1.03
A D'Agostino
A1.03.5
1.04
1.04
1.04
A Devoti
A Devoti
A Devoti
A1.04.3
A1.04.4
A1.04.5
2.01
B Chiarabba
A2.01.1
2.01
B Chiarabba
A2.01.3
2.02
A Di Stefano
A2.02.2
2.02
A Di Stefano
A2.02.4
2.02
A Di Stefano
A2.02.7
2.02
A Di Stefano
A2.02.8
2.03
B Neri
A2.03.1
2.04
2.04
A Romanelli
A Romanelli
A2.04.2
A2.04.3
2.05
B Vannucci
A2.05.1
2.05
B Vannucci
A2.05.2
3.01
C Basili
A3.01.1
3.01
C Basili
A3.01.3
3.01
C Basili
A3.01.4
3.02
C Catalano
A3.02.1
3.02
C Catalano
A3.02.6
3.03
C Faccenna
A3.03.2
3.03
C Faccenna
A3.03.4
3.04
C Ferranti
A3.04.1
3.04
C Ferranti
A3.04.6
3.05
C Galadini
A3.05.1
II
Semester 1 2 1 2
2 Tide gauge analysis for Italian coastline, Italian and International Databases
2 Interpolation satellite altimetry T/P_Jason 1 for Italian shoreline
Present vertical rates from comparison tide gauge/satellite altimetry, Italian
1
coastline
Analysis of GPS data from permanent stations in Italy and surrounding areas,
1 with different softwares and different approaches, to produce independent
and and combined solutions
2 Strain-rate analyses and estimates of geodetic moment rate.
Development of block model, estimates of fault slip rates, possible study of
2
target areas
2 Preliminary velocity field production
1 Fiducial solution and time series fulfillment
1 Final Velocity field
Acquisition of parametric data from seismic bullettins of permanent networks,
2
association of arrival times data and performing earthquake location
Magnitude computation of CSI data and completeness of CSI catalogue
1
checking
Computing 3D velocity model for the Central Mediterranean (data selection,
1
quality weighting, determination of 1D models, resolution tests)
1 Receiver Function (RF) analysis
Software Packages – Module 1: re-gridding and integration of the
2 tomographic models; Module 2: best 1D calculation and travel times
calculation through the 3D model
3D crustal velocity model and Moho map update for the Central
1
Mediterranean region
Tomographic inversion and hypocenter locations, Analyses in Eastern
3
Calabria and Western Sicily, with additional analyses in target areas
1 Surface wave lithospheric velocity models
1 Definition of lithospheric thickness and mechanic properties
Development of a new version of Boxer code with new macroseismic
1
attenuation laws and error estimation
1 Development of an upgraded version of EMMA database
Slip rates of Italian seismogenic sources with regional approaches and local
1
studies
DISS Validation - Tectonic consistency and seismic moment balance of
1
seismogenic sources
2 Uncertainties on probabilities of earthquake occurrence
Recognition, kinematic analyses and structural transects of the main recent
2
and active fault segments of the seismogenic fault zones 932, 933, 929
Parametrization of the required fault parameters within the 932, 933 and 929
1
seismogenic zones.
Structural and morphotectonic analysis of the main active faults ,Tyrrhenian
2 side Calabria. Analysis and interpretation of the seismic lines along the
Tyrrhenian margin.
2 Parametrization of seismogenic sources. Tyrrhenian side Calabria
In selected locations_NE and S Calabrian arc: Field analysis of (Late)
Pleistocene and Holocene uplift markers, with datations; Collection/re2
processing of marine geological data; computation of vertical displacement
rates (regional vs. co.-seismic).
Parameter characterization of active structures producing local vertical
1
displacements (selected locations_NE and S Calabrian arc)
Definition of a structural-geologic model; evaluation of the Quaternary tectonic
2 activity of the South-Alpine front between the Euganei-Berici axis and the
Adda River
51/193
X X
X X
X
X X X X
X X X
X X X
X
X
X
X X X X
X X X
X X X X
X X X
X X
X
X
X X X X
X X
X X X X
X X X X
X X X X
X
X
X X X X
X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X X
X
X X X
Phase I
RU
T RU resp.
ACT # Pri
3.05
C Galadini
A3.05.5
1
3.06
C Mariucci
A3.06.1
2
3.07
C Michetti
A3.07.2
1
3.07
C Michetti
A3.07.6
3
3.07
C Michetti
A3.07.7
2
3.08
C Argnani
A3.08.2
2
3.08
C Trincardi
A3.08.5
2
3.08
C Polonia
A3.08.8
1
3.09
C Pucci
A3.09.5
2
3.09
C Pucci
A3.09.9
2
3.10
C Scrocca
A3.10.2
1
3.10
C Davide Scrocca A3.10.6
2
3.11
C Seno
A3.11.2
2
3.11
C Seno
A3.11.4
2
3.11
C Seno
A3.11.5
2
3.12
C Vannoli
A3.12.1
2
3.12
3.12
C Vannoli
C Vannoli
A3.12.3
A3.12.7
1
2
3.13
C Zonno
A3.13.1
3
3.13
C Zonno
A3.13.2
3
II
Semester 1 2 1 2
Parametrization of possible seismogenetic sources in the area between the
Euganei-Berici axis and the Adda River
Planning (data check, data request, software setup): table and map of
available data to perform breakout analysis; Data analysis: table with results
of breakout analysis (preliminary and final).
Excavation of new exploratory trenching at the Cava Danesi, Monte Netto
site, near Brescia, paleoseismic analysis, Shallow geophysical prospecting,
interpretation of shallow boreholes data ENI E&P profiles
Offshore, high resolution, geophysical prospecting in the SW sector of Lake
Garda, Brescia
Source parametrization of earthquake sources in Lombardia - Southern Alps
Interpretation of seismic profiles, stratigraphic correlation, tectonic map and
seismic source parametrization for the peri- Gargano region
Gondola deformation belt: Interpretation of bathymetry and morphological
data along with particolar enphasis on sea-floor offsets, assessment of of
late-Quaternary depositional units, cinematics, and parametrization of tectonic
sources
Processing and interpretation of MCS and CHIRP seismic data and
morphobathymetric data across the deformation fronts of the Calabrian Arc
subduction complex; structural interpretation of geophysical data in the Ionian
Sea
Geological, structural and geomorphological field surveys of key areas of the
Belice region (Western Sicily) for geomorphic markers reconstruction; Dating
for evaluation of the Pleisto-Holocene deformational rates; parametrization of
seismic sources for the Belice area
Reconstruction of the seismic horizons at depth to define decollement levels
in the the Central and Northern Apennines
Reconstruction of the geometry of the basal detachment surface of the
Northern Apennines accretionary prism. Characterization of the "ITSA052:
Mid-Adriatic offshore" seismogenic area through the interpretation of seismic
reflection profiles
Characterization of the out-of-sequence thrust in the marchigiano-abruzzese
on-shore area through the integrated interpretation of field and seismic
reflection data. Evaluation of the strain rates associated with the thrust-related
structures recognized by RU 3.10.
Seismic interpretation, depth convertion and restoration (where necessary) of
new seismic lines in the central Po Plain; 3D reconstruction of PlioQuaternary horizons and matching between seismogenic sources and
drainage anomalies; Parametrization of seismogenic fault in the Central Po
Plain and DISS update
Analogue models reproducing the observed tectonic setting of the Po Plain
and the Plio-Quaternary deformation
Remote sensing analysis and systematic field-work for recognising and
mapping the major morphotectonic features (fluvial terraces and hydrographic
network anomalies) of the southeastern Po Plain (Romagna area);
seismotectonic characterization of the major Quaternary blind faults
Implementation of support and literature data of the DISS seismogenic
sources. Inclusion in DISS of a new layer containing information about
debated seismogenic faults. Implementation in DISS of new thematic maps
Identification of new DISS seismogenic sources
Give support to use DISS within the RUs of the Project
Individual sources and area sources faults parameters (strike, dip, geometry
and Mw) selection from the DISS database
Definition of the input (geometric spreading and attenuation, Q(f), etc) to be
used in finite fault stochastic simulation program. Computation of MOS maps
(PSA and SI) on a national scale using DISS individual sources and area
sources
52/193
X
X X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X X
X X X X
X X X X
X X X X
X X X X
X X X X
X X
X X
X
X X
X X X X
X X X X
X
X X X X
X
X X X X
Phase I
RU
T RU resp.
ACT # Pri
3.13
C Zonno
A3.13.8
3
3.14
C Solarino
A3.14.1
2
4.01
B Lavecchia
A4.01.1
2
4.01
B Lavecchia
A4.01.4
1
4.02
B Palombo
A4.02.1
2
5.01
A Aoudia
A5.01.1
2
5.01
A Aoudia
A5.01.3
2
5.02
A Crescentini
A5.02.1
3
5.02
A Crescentini
A5.02.3
2
5.03
A Megna
A5.03.3
1
5.03
A Megna
A5.03.4
1
5.03
A Bellani
A5.03.8
1
6.01
6.02
6.05
D
Barbano - De
Martini - Tinti
A6.01.1
2
6.01
6.02
D
Barbano - De
Martini
A6.01.2
2
6.01
6.02
D
Barbano - De
Martini
A6.01.3
2
6.02
D De Martini
A6.02.4
2
6.03
D Mastronuzzi
A6.03.1
2
6.04
C Piatanesi
A6.04.1
2
S.01 B Gasperini
S.01 B Gasperini
S.01 B Gasperini
AS.01.1
AS.01.2
AS.01.3
1
2
2
S.02 B Rotondi
AS.02.2
1
II
Semester 1 2 1 2
Development of a theoretical method to approximate the near-field limit,
calibration of the method on the different focal mechanisms, and test the
method on individual sources. Computing faults plane spatial uncertainties
and near-field limit.
Installation of OBS in the Ligurian Sea and seismic stations onshore. Merging
of Italian and French OBS data with national and local networks. 1-D and 3-D
tomographic models. Computation of earthquake locations, fault plane
solutions and stress regime of earthquakes recorded during the OBS
campaign in the Ligurian Sea
Analysis of geological-geophysical constraints for reconstruction of the 3D
geometry of the various possible sources of the Maiella 1706
earthquake;application of an inversion code and selection of the best source.
Geologically constrained-inversion of the 1881, 1882, 1933 and 1950
earthquakes
Regional seismotectonic analysis of the Maiella and Abruzzo foothills areas
Selection of early instrumental earthquakes in less known seismic areas
(Adriatic coast, Calabria and Central Latium); Retrieving of the selected paper
recordings and instrumental parameters; Seismograms vectorization; main
source parameters estimation
GPS measurements in the Polino-Castrovillari area; Cat-Scan continuous
GPS data analysis and modelling using a Bayesian approach
Time -dependent slip rate distribution over the Castrovillari fault
Addition (to an existent code) of the capability to invert geodetic data in a
layered medium for the slip distribution on planar and listric faults, both
uniform- and nonuniform-slipping
Blind inversions (using standard layerings) of synthetics computed taking into
account realistic features typical of the Apennines.
numerical deformation modeling: residuals analysis of existing models and
datasets; decrease regional misfits and analyze parameters.
numerical deformation modeling: model calibration with new data, structural
and rheological information; results analysis by L1 and L2 norms;
determination of the error associated to all the computed quantities
Collecting deep temperatures data and computing geothermal gradient;
Filtering of heat flow data at regional scale and updating heat flow map.
(Sicily-Calabria): Analysis of the records available from the historical
catalogues and search for new contemporary sources to collect detailed data
on the 1836 and 1905 tsunamis and to upgrade the information available on
the 1169, 1693, 1783 and 1908 events
(Sicily-Calabria): Detailed geomorphologic investigation, including EDM
models to select best sites suitable for exploratory cores. Elaboration of
inundation, run-up maps, etc; Tsunami occurrence time estimate
(Sicily-Calabria): Hand and engine exploratory coring, down to maximum
depth of 7-8 m. Excavation of exploratory trenches to define better the
tsunami deposits geometry.
Laboratory analyses: Sedimentary, Magnetic Susceptibility, RX-XRF, Physical
Properties, Mineralogy-Petrography-Morphology by means of FE-SEM and
Microprobe, C14-Pb210-Cs137 dating, Magneto-stratigraphy, Tefrostratigraphy.
Southern Calabria: geomorphological and morpho-bathymetric surveys; hand
and engine coring up to 7-8 m deep; excavation of trenches; age
determinations of samples; laboratory analyses: Sedimentary,
Palaeontological, C14-OSL dating
Source characterisation of the Calabria 1905 and Messina 1908 earthquakes
through tsunami and geodetic data analysis
Upgrading and homogeneization of the instrumental catalog of Italy
Statistical evaluation of occurrence/recurrence models
Estimate of the seismic productivity and duration of seismic sequences
Formulation and estimation of a new stochastic model for the seismic slip at
regional and national scale
53/193
X X X X
X X X X
X X X
X
X X X X
X X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X X X
X X X X
X X X X
X X X X
X X X X
X X X X
X X X X
X X
X X
X X X X
X X X X
Phase I
RU
T RU resp.
ACT # Pri
S.02 B Rotondi
AS.02.4
S.03 B Slejko
AS.03.1
S.03 B Petrini
AS.03.4
S.04 B De Rubeis
AS.04.2
S.04 B De Rubeis
AS.04.3
T.01
T.01
T.01
T.01
T
T
T
T
Barba
Barba
Barba
Barba
T.02
T D'Ambrogi
AT.02.3
T.02
T D'Ambrogi
AT.02.4
T.02
T D'Ambrogi
AT.02.5
AT.01.1
AT.01.2
AT.01.3
AT.01.4
Semester 1 2 1 2
Estimation of the probability distribution of the recurrence time for each
1 seismogenic area SA and waiting time to the next event for each tectonic
region MR
Characterization of the seismicity (Mmax/Mchar, G-R, etc.) of the Italian
1 seismogenic sources; Assessment of the occurrence probabilities for strong
earthquakes in the best known seismogenic areas
Monitoring of some physical-chemical parameters in soil and in the water of
3
springs located close to the main faults in NE Italy
Analysis seismic catalogues: definition of space-time clustering indexes,
1
definition of space-time sequence behavior
macroseismic attenuation regionalization: collecting data, verification
reliability over space, assessing error; separation of diverse range spatial
2
scales through filtering and residuals analysis, definition of attenuation
patterns, definition of anomalous attenuation areas
1 Organize work flow of tasks within the steering committee
2 Organize technical work
1 Collaboration with internationally renown experts
1 Organization of scientific meetings for project participants
3D elaborations, for the entire Italian territory, starting from new digital data
2
produced or acquired during the Project
Supplying, in common GIS file format, the three-dimensional elaborations
1
(national to local scale) to be used for the purposes of DPC
WEB visualization and dissemination of three-dimensional elaborations
3
produced during the project
X X
X X X
X X X X
X X X X
X X X X
X
X X
X
X X
X
X X
(Total months relative to RU participants, not only to responsibles)
RU
(surname and name)
Months/Person
Institution
Months/Person
not funded by the project)
unded by the project)
I phase
I phase
phase
phase
1.01
Braitenberg Carla
Univ. Trieste
16
9
2
8
1.02
Caporali Alessandro
Univ. Padova
8
8
4
4
1.03
D'Agostino Nicola
INGV
13
13
1.04
Devoti Roberto
INGV
31
32
12
6
2.01
Chiarabba Claudio
INGV
14
16
2.02
Di Stefano Raffaele
INGV
11
14
12
12
2.03
Neri Giancarlo
Univ. Messina
20
16
5
1
2.04
Romanelli Fabio
Univ. Trieste
17
9
6
4
2.05
Vannucci Gianfranco
INGV
12
10
3.01
Basili Roberto
INGV
12.5
12
3.02
Catalano Stefano
Univ. Catania
28
27
3.03
Faccenna Claudio
Univ. Roma TRE
24.5
16.5
54/193
X
X X
X
X X
X X X X
8. Personnel
RU responsible
II
RU
RU responsible
(surname and name)
Months/Person
Institution
Months/Person
not funded by the project)
unded by the project)
I phase
I phase
phase
3.04
Ferranti Luigi
Univ. Napoli
15.5
13.5
3.05
Galadini Fabrizio
INGV
29
29
3.06
Mariucci Maria Teresa
INGV
6.5
7
3.07
Michetti Alessandro
Univ. Como
56
56
3.08
Polonia Alina
ISMAR-BO
12.5
14
3.09
Pucci Stefano
INGV
12
11
3.10
Scrocca Davide
Univ. "La Sapienza"
17
17
3.11
Seno Silvio
Univ. Pavia
16
10
3.12
Vannoli Paola
INGV
9
10
3.13
Zonno Gaetano
INGV
13
13
3.14
Solarino Stefano
INGV
14
14
4.01
Lavecchia Giuseppina
Univ. Chieti
7
4.5
4.02
Palombo Barbara
INGV
7
8
5.01
Aoudia Abdelkrim
ICTP
5
7
5.02
Crescentini Luca
Univ. Salerno
4
4
5.03
Megna Antonietta
INGV
19.5
18.5
6.01
Barbano Maria Serafina
Univ. Catania
16
6.02
De Martini Paolo Marco
INGV
6.03
Mastronuzzi Giuseppe
6.04
phase
2
2
6
8.5
4
7
11
12
1
8.5
9.5
0
12
Univ. Bari
12
12
Piatanesi Alessio
INGV
2
2
6.05
Tinti Stefano
Univ. Bologna
11
5
3
3
S.01
Gasperini Paolo
Univ. Bologna
15
15
S.02
Rotondi Renata
CNR - Milano
8
8
12
12
S.03
Slejko Dario
OGS
13.5
15
S.04
De Rubeis Valerio
INGV
2
2
T.01
Barba Salvatore
INGV
10
10
4
4
T.02
D'Ambrogi Chiara
Servizio Geologico
4
4
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9. Financial plan (€)
9.1. I phase
Importo
previsto
a
(total)
Type of expenditure
(Personnel)
(Travels for data collection, collaborations, etc.)
3) Costi Amministrativi (solo per
Coordinatori di Progetto)
4) Spese per studi, ricerche e prestazioni
professionali
(grants, technical and scientific contracts, etc.)
(Maintenance and assistance of instrumentation
and computers, technical services, etc.)
6) Spese per materiale tecnico durevole e di
uso
(Durables and consumables)
7) Spese indirette (≤10% del totale)
(Overheads)
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
(DPC contribution)
Co-finanziamento
c = a-b
(co-funded)
36900
112100
3000
191500
41700
69000
42200
Total
496400
9.2. II phase
Importo
previsto
a
(total)
Type of expenditure
(Personnel)
professionali
uso
(Overheads)
Total
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
(DPC contribution)
35250
119000
3000
188500
48200
25300
41350
460600
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Co-finanziamento
c = a-b
(co-funded)
9.3. Total
Importo
previsto
a
(total)
Type of expenditure
(Personnel)
professionali
uso
(Overheads)
Total
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
(DPC contribution)
72150
231100
6000
380000
89900
94300
83550
957000
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Co-finanziamento
c = a-b
(co-funded)
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Project S2
Development of a dynamical model
for seismic hazard assessment at
national scale
Progetto S2
Realizzazione di un modello
dinamico sperimentale di
valutazione della pericolosità
sismica a scala nazionale
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Progetto S2
Titolo: Realizzazione di un modello dinamico sperimentale di
valutazione della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
Coordinatori: Prof. Ezio Faccioli (Politecnico Milano); Dott. Warner
Marzocchi (INGV – Roma 1)
Riassunto
Lo scopo principale del progetto è di predisporre un codice open-source per la
valutazione della pericolosità sismica. Il codice avrà essenzialmente una
struttura modulare che ne garantirà una notevole elasticità di uso. Esso avrà
alcune prerogative di grande interesse per diversi potenziali utilizzatori poiché
permetterà:
- un aggiornamento facile e dinamico delle stime di pericolosità con nuovi dati
e/o modelli,
- una stima formale delle incertezze, aleatorie ed epistemiche, associate alle
valutazioni
di
pericolosità sismica.
- l’uso di diversi modelli scientifici, in esclusiva od opportunamente combinati
fra
loro,
per
la stima dei tassi e delle probabilità di occorrenza dei terremoti e
dell’attenuazione
del moto del suolo,
- la possibilità di fornire in uscita stime diverse di pericolosità, in modo da
soddisfare
le
esigenze di diversi potenziali utilizzatori.
Il progetto non mira a produrre una revisione “ufficiale” della stima della
pericolosità del territorio italiano, ma il codice da esso prodotto verrà usato in
simulazione per valutare il peso relativo delle diverse componenti scientifiche
della pericolosità in termini di danno atteso.
Un ultimo importante obiettivo del progetto è quello di predisporre criteri di
validazione per la pericolosità sismica e per i modelli che stimano i tassi di
occorrenza dei terremoti. Questa attività non sarà integrata nel codice, ma
riveste un’importanza basilare poiché permetterà di ridurre l’incertezza
epistemica delle stime di pericolosità sismica attribuendo un certo “grado di
confidenza” ad ogni modulo scientifico che verrà preso in considerazione.
Il progetto ha importanti e concreti collegamenti con progetti europei, progetti
INGV-DPC passati e attuali, e con iniziative internazionali in materia. Ci si
attende che queste sinergie permetteranno un notevole risparmio di energie
ed una omogeneizzazione delle attività a scala più vasta di quella italiana.
Nell’ambito del presente programma, S2 svilupperà interazioni - nel proprio
Task 2 - sopratutto con S1, con cui dovrà condividere i dati di base della
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sismicità e la descrizione delle sorgenti sismogenetiche, e nel Task 4 con S4,
principalmente in tema di simulazioni di sismogrammi sintetici.
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Project S2
Title: Development of a dynamical model for seismic hazard
assessment at national scale
1. Coordinators
Ezio Faccioli, Full professor, Department of Structural Engineering,
Politecnico di Milano (Technical University of Milan)
Warner Marzocchi, Chief scientist, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e
Vulcanologia, Roma
[email protected], +39 02 23994337, +39 3803900793
[email protected], +39 06 51860589, +39 335 349759
2. Objectives
The main objective of the project is to design, test and apply an open-source
code for seismic hazard assessment (SHA). The tool envisaged draws some
inspiration, e. g. in its modular philosophy, from an existing international
initiative (Open SHA, Field et al., 2003), but it will likely differ from it some
important respects. In particular, “the OpenSHA collaboration model envisions
scientists developing their own attenuation relationships and earthquake
rupture forecasts, which they will deploy and maintain in their own systems”
(from Machtling et al, “SHA using distributed computing…”). The purpose of
S2 project is somewhat different; it is to provide a flexible computational tool
for SHA, primarily suited for the needs of the DPC, which not necessarily are
scientific needs.
Basically, the code envisaged should allow:
1. an easy updating of SHA, depending on the availability of new data and/or
new models,
2. the use of different scientific ingredients (the “modules”), singularly or in
combination,
3. a formal evaluation of the uncertainty in SHA,
4. a multi-parameter output, i.e., different SH descriptors that cover different
end-user demands (i.e. for structural design, bases for risk mitigation
decisions, etc.).
The application of the code to Italy requires setting up a “natural laboratory”,
i.e., a selected geographical region with sufficient observational infrastructure
and an authorized data source (see below for more details).
Although the code is designed to produce SH multi-parameter map
representations, here we shall not pursue the goal of releasing new hazard
maps for Itlay. Rather, we intend to explore the capability of the code, and to
evaluate the relative weight of the different scientific components of SHA in
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terms of expected damage. For this reason, while the focus of the code
remains SHA, a module will be also provided devoted to vulnerability and
damage estimation.
Besides the code, we intend to design statistical procedures for testing SH
and probabilistic earthquake forecasting models. Such efforts will be carried
out in accordance with analogous international initiatives (like the projects
“Collaboratory Studies for Earthquake Prediction”, or CSEP, and “NEtwork of
Research Infrastructures for European Seismology”, or NERIES). The
purpose of this part of the project is to compare the performance of different
scientific modules, and, finally, to select the most appropriate for SHA, in the
perspective of reducing significantly the epistemic uncertainty.
3. State of the art
The official SH map for Italy (adopted in 2006) was produced in 2004 after a
moderate earthquake (Molise 2002) had severely damaged one small town
not included in the “official” seismic zones of the previous SH map. The 2004
map was the result of an extraordinary effort made by a selected group of
researchers to achieve a viable zonation in the short period of time requested
by the national authorities. Despite the significant step forward represented by
the new map, this experience also disclosed some weak points in the
scientific procedures commonly accepted to produce a reliable SHA. An
approach based on a logic tree was created ex-novo to merge the different
scientific components required by SHA; although this represented a step
forward, the breadth of options spanned by the tree branches was possibly
insufficient, and the allowable checks on the sensitivity of the results likely to
be too limited.
At the same time, international initiatives were launched, such as that
promoted by Field et al. (2003), aimed at developing a rational and
transparent tool for SHA, merging in a formal way the “best science” available.
In this respect, a great emphasis has been recently placed on the inclusion of
the “best science” related to time-dependent earthquake occurrence models
(WGCEP, 2003). Despite the relative importance of such a component in a full
SHA (see, i.e., Cornell and Krawinkler, 2000), no systematic efforts were
made to explore the sensitivity to different possible choices in occurrence
processes in terms of expected damage. Anyway, irrespective of its relative
importance, we underline that different, if not antithetic, models are commonly
used testifying the large epistemic uncertainty related to this part of SHA.
Another basic aspect that is more and more investigated is the kind of output
that a SHA model should provide. The trend is to develop multi-parameter SH
maps, displaying e. g. either response spectrum ordinates for selected
vibration periods and assigned exceedence probabilities (up to, say, 2% in 50
yr), or ranges of probabilities for selected levels of spectral demand.
However, while examples of regional maps generated by open SHA tools
have been published (Field et al., 2005, SRL, v76, pg161-167), ” OpenSHA
has indeed failed in terms of making itself easily used by others because that
hasn't been the priority of its sponsors” (from an e-mail by E. Field to E.
Faccioli). One difficulty may stem from the fact that the increased flexibility of
open source tools calls for the introduction of very abstract and general
classes of “objects” that transfer the burden of programming to the user. Also,
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the use of such classes may lead to longer computation times, which would
be a large disadvantage in the present context. Hence, a reasonable
compromise should be sought if industrial use is expected for the SHA
software, e. g. by using a traditional SHA software as initial kernel.
Irrespective of the SHA approach adopted, two aspects call for special
attention in the project context, i.e. near-field ground motions and
selection/improvement of tools for describing strong motion attenuation.
Concerning the first, the reliability of purely probabilistic SHA in the near field
of important faults believed to be seismogenic is likely to be weak in Italy,
because the completeness time span of earthquake catalogues is limited, the
slip rates from neo-tectonic observations are (in most cases) poorly
constrained, and representative strong motion records are nearly absent. As
a hint on the alternatives to consider, in the latest Canadian SH map
(http://earthquakescanada.nrcan.gc.ca/hazard/ ; Adams and Atkinson 2003)
acceleration contour lines obtained from a deterministic Mw 9 earthquake
scenario for the Cascadia subduction zone region are displayed instead of
those yielded by the probabilistic analysis where the latter are lower. Great
care is clearly necessary if results of deterministic evaluations are to be
introduced in a PSHA context, so as to minimize the influence of insufficient
knowledge on the earthquake source features.
Next, empirical prediction of ground motion attenuation has long been
recognized as the single most crucial ingredient in SHA and as the largest
contributor to the uncertainty in hazard estimates (Abrahamson 2000). The
fast increase of digital accelerometer records has recently spurred a rapid
evolution in this field, with the number of predictor variables significantly
extending beyond its “historical” level (i. e. magnitude, a measure of sourceto-site distance, and simple site geological indicators), to include source
mechanism and source-site geometry parameters, plus indicators of nonlinear site response. Also, to better satisfy the needs of displacement-based
design, the latest predictive equations for response spectral ordinates are
truly “broad-band”, in that they extend from 0 s to about 20 s vibration
periods, and were developed in a previous DPC-INGV project (Cauzzi and
Faccioli 2008). These very recent studies show that in crustal regions with
normal seismogenic thickness, the “regionalization” of the prediction
equations is not supported by observations for magnitudes Mw > 5 (Douglas
2007). More significant for the applications envisaged in the project are likely
to be non-standard, or “generalized” attenuation tools, that can, e.g.,
accommodate user- generated ground motion synthetics for selected
earthquake scenarios on single faults. Handling generalized site effects, on
the basis of empirical descriptions of local geo-morphological conditions
would also be desirable, given the countless population centers of Italian
“comuni” lying in such locales.
Finally, the scarce elements available for evaluating the sensitivity of damage
evaluations to crucial SH inputs, such as earthquake occurrence processes
and probabilities, seem to suggest that differences attributable to Poisson vs.
non stationary occurrence processes are notable only in a limited time spans
after the last earthquake. This aspect needs, however, substantial more
investigation for common types of objects at risk, since it could cast decisive
light on the input choices really worth considering in SHA.
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4.1 Organization and Management
The project is organized in 6 Tasks and its work force consists of the following
7 RUs:
- RU1: UNAM, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. Leader: M. Ordaz
Schroeder.
- RU2: POLIMI, Politecnico di Milano. Leader: E. Faccioli.
- RU3: INGV-MI, INGV sezione di Milano. Leader: C. Meletti.
- RU4: OGS-UNICH, OGS and Univ. Chieti. Leader: L. Peruzza.
- RU5: INGV-RM1, INGV sezione di Roma 1. Leader: W. Marzocchi.
- RU6: UNISI, Univ. Siena. Leader: D. Albarello.
- RU7: UNIGE, Univ. Genova. Leader: S. Lagomarsino.
Provided below is a general description of the Tasks and of their main
objectives. The logical connection among the Tasks is illustrated in next
section, where their mutual interaction in order to achieve the main objectives
of the project is also described.
- Task 1: Development of Seismic Hazard Assessment (SHA) tool. It aims
at developing a code that integrates, in an internally consistent way, the
different scientific components required for SHA, accounting for both aleatory
and epistemic uncertainties. The Task will also explore, in a simplified way,
the impact of some components on hazard estimates. RU1, RU2, RU3, RU4,
and RU5 participate to this task. The leader is RU1, with support by RU3.
- Task 2: Earthquake rate (ER) models. The Task is intended to produce
software tools to evaluate earthquake occurrence rates, as well as magnitude
probability distributions, using time-dependent models of different flavors.
RU2, RU4, and RU5 participate to this task. The leader is RU5.
- Task 3: Ground motion attenuation and site effects. It will select and test,
for the needs of T1, several “admissible” modules for ground motion
attenuation, introducing the use of generalized classes. RU2, RU4 and RU5
participate to this task, to be led by RU2.
- Task 4: Near-field simulations. This Task will provide, through advanced
earthquake scenario simulations, reference ground motion values (to be used
as an alternative the probabilistic SH evaluations) and complete time histories
in the near field of representative seismogenic faults in Italy. RU2 (leader),
and RU5 will participate in this Task.
- Task 5: Probabilistic risk assessment. The task will formulate, and make
available as appropriate software, methods for the damage assessment to
representative classes of objects at risk, and demonstrate their performance
through applications to some test areas, using as input SH evaluations form
different models contemplated in T1 and T2. RU2 and RU7 (leader)
participate in this Task
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- Task 6: Model validation. The task aims at producing codes and criteria for
model validation, both for SHA and earthquake forecasting models. RU2,
RU4, RU5 (leader), and RU6 participate to this task.
4.2 Method
The general method devised to achieve the previous main objectives can be
summarized by the following conceptual flowchart:
The module ITALAB contains pre-requisite information needed to apply the
approach developed in the project to Italy, and calls for the definition of an
Italian “natural laboratory”. This consists of a geographical region with an
observational authorized infrastructure (INGV network), authorized datasets
like earthquake catalogs (INGV bulletin, CSI, CPTI), seismogenic structures
(DISS), and so forth. The definition of these important initial conditions will
benefit from a strong link with some of the parallel DPC-INGV projects, like
S1 and S3, as well as with the EC FP6 projects NERIES and SAFER. It is not
an aim of S2 to evaluate the uncertainty of the databases involved, since this
is the responsibility of researchers that build models using datasets.
The core of the computational system and software that is the main purpose
of the project lies in Task 1. Here, the main idea is to achieve a software
design reaching a reasonable balance between flexibility (distinctive of an
open source tool), usability, and performance. This will be pursued through
the extension of an existing, widely used SH code (CRISIS2007) to include
the new classes of objects developed as part of the project, so as to make it
able to handle time-dependent earthquake occurrence processes and
complex attenuation patterns, with adequate treatment of uncertainties
(random and epistemic), including a built-in capability of handling logic trees.
The separate testing, in appropriately simplified configurations, of different
combinations of occurrence models, source types, and attenuations modules
will also be part of the system tuning within Task 1.
Of the modules that, as shown in the figure, will feed Task 1 like satellites,
those for the “admissible” space-time-magnitude occurrence processes will be
set up in Task 2, and they will be subjected to strict acceptance requirements,
dictated by current international projects. The goal is to provide the DPC with
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a full range of different occurrence models including, in addition to the
standard Poisson occurrences, a model-free (spatially) description, Brownian
passage time, characteristic, and spatially clustering models, in association or
not with the current available representations of seismogenic sources / active
faults.
Salient methodological aspects will be addressed in the two “satellite” Tasks 3
and 4. Whereas, from the perspective of the conventional prediction of ground
motion parameters, the needs of the project are felt to be well covered by a
few very recently (2005-2008) published empirical prediction equations, to
achieve increased flexibility and accuracy in applications broader definitions of
“site conditions” (including e. g. topography) will be introduced, as well as a
finer characterization of reference “rock” conditions, more closely tuned with
the geological and geophysical data available. Full-fledged, user generated
ground motion simulations, performed, e. g., by 2D/3D source and wave
propagation models, will also have to be accommodated in a generalized
attenuation mode that is likely to be designed in Task 3. This issue is closely
related with the flavour of the next task (Task 4), which introduces a fairly new
approach, i.e. combining in hazard representations deterministically computed
ground motion values to values obtained through SHA. In countries like Italy
where earthquakes rarely exceed Mw 6.5, damage and losses occur mostly in
the near field of seismic sources. Since, in addition, hardly any near field
accelerograms are available for regional calibration of the attenuation
relations, the key source features controlling the energy release and the areas
and levels of strongest shaking are unlikely to be captured by the (heavily
smoothed) probabilistic ground motion estimations. Hence the need to resort
to physically based deterministic simulations, on models patterned after a few
representative and known active faults in Italy, using powerful computational
tools, and aimed at establishing realistic envelopes for near-source ground
motion levels.
End users of hazard representations often have only one way of deciding
whether or not the input data and modeling assumptions are tenable, and that
is to check if the damage and loss estimations resulting from such
assumptions are realistic and consistent with the available record and
experience from past earthquakes. This means that the method calls for
adding a “downstream” module, formally consistent with the previous ones
(i.e. carrying a prevalent probabilistic format), where vulnerability and damage
assessment tools are introduced. In this way, damage to representative
classes of objects at risk, such as common building types, can be estimated
and different hazard inputs can be compared.
Finally, even in the very recent past, it has been assumed that PSHA maps
and other representations could not be independently validated. Herein,
however, an innovative methodological effort will be devoted (in Task 6) to
assess the “degree of reliability” to be assigned to each of the occurrence
models contemplated in Task 2 along the lines proposed by the RELM and
CSEP initiatives (e.g., Schorlemmer et al., 2007). Furthermore, recently
formulated “preference” criteria (Grandori et al. 2006) will be taken into
considerations and applied to the procedures used to compute ground motion
exceedence probabilities associated with different occurrence models, as well
as other statistical tools allowing comparison with instrumental and
macroseismic observations.
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4.3 Activity
Task 1. Development of Seismic Hazard Assessment (SHA) tool.
The core of the project lies in this task, which is designed to provide the
open-source SHA code. The code takes CRISIS07 as a starting point, but it
contains important differences and extensions. This task is developed into 4
activities described below. The main characteristic of the code are outlined in
activity T1.3.
T1.1: Definition and design of the “basic classes”.
This activity includes the definition and design of the basic classes that will at
least include those aimed to: a) site characterization; b) source
characterization; c) probabilistic representation of ground motion; d)
elementary operations to compute distances, angles, fault planes, etc. All
classes will be clearly and fully documented for their use in applications.
T1.2: Definition of the probabilistic framework to merge scientific components
of SHA and to propagate uncertainties
Although SHA rests on a well-established probabilistic approach (Cornell
1968, Abrahamson 2000), the uncertainty associated to some of the
components of the formulation are not accounted for. In this activity, we
propose to investigate the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties of SHA
ingredients not previously examined from this viewpoint, and the possibility of
including them formally in the approach. While this generalization would
represent a fundamental step towards the goal of assigning a sound reliability
to SHA, and would allow to visualize possible time-space variations of the
uncertainty, we are aware that it would be hardly feasible in practice due an
enormous demand of CPU time. Therefore, besides the mathematical
formulation, we will explore in parallel the computational demand that would
go with it. Ideally, the final goal would be to balance different requirements: a
reliable estimation that accounts for all possible sources of uncertainty, and a
manageable cost in terms of CPU time.
T1.3: Design and development of the software code.
This activity contemplates the conceptual design of the application that
constitutes the core of the project. The application will be open source, and
flexible. However, although this characteristics sound very nice on paper, the
fact that our code will be of, say, industrial use, introduces some constrains.
As already mentioned, the use of abstract and general classes produces
improved flexibility, but transfers the burden of programming to the user. Also,
the use of abstract classes might lead to longer computation times, which will
be a large disadvantage for our purposes. In view of this, our design will try to
reach a reasonable balance between flexibility, usability and performance.
Another choice to be made is whether we adopt the “event based” approach
of OpenSHA or the “integration” approach used, for instance, in CRISIS. As to
the mode of use of the code, the version to be developed for S2 will likely be
Web-based.
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The CRISIS code, to be used as a point of departure, is written and will
remain running in Visual Net. It is platform dependent (it only runs under
Windows), and it is already highly graphical. The possibility of running
CRISIS on supercomputers is not to be taken for granted, but due
consideration will be given to it. The use of distributed object technologies is
not envisaged, since the number of persons that will take part in the
development of the new version of CRISIS is small enough as not to require
these technologies. As to its future use, the computational tool should be
comfortably operated and updated by the DPC and by a number of authorised
participants.
T1.4: Simulations of SHA in order to evaluate the weight of different scientific
components in terms of expected damage.
This activity, which is closely interfaced with Task 5, aims at filling a gap of
knowledge relative to the “weight” of each scientific module of SHA. In
particular, in case of non-stationary occurrences, it is still open the debate on
what is the most “sensitive” parameter in SHA as to impact on damage. Here,
we tackle this issue, simulating different scenarios, and using the set of
modules prepared in the project. The aim is to cooperate with Task 5 to verify
the relative sensitiveness of each module in terms of expected damage.
Deliverables
D1.1. Open-source code for SHA (Nature: software code)
D1.2. User manual of the code (Nature: report)
D1.3. Simulations with the code, including separate analyses on simplified
models, to provide inputs to Task 5 for sensitivity analyses on damage
evaluations (Nature: report)
Task 2. Earthquake rate (ER) models.
One of the basic components of SHA is the probabilistic modelling of
earthquake occurrence processes in space, time, and magnitude (hereinafter,
Earthquake Rate, ER, models). This part of the process contains a huge
epistemic uncertainty, and many different, if not antithetical, models have
been proposed and are used, even simultaneously (WGCEP, 2003). This
Task is intended to provide a set of modules with different ER models, that will
be required to produce output in a CSEP format. This facilitates the validation
of each model foreseen in Task 6, following internationally accepted
procedures. The CSEP format relies on the rate of hypocenters for each bin,
and this is unsatisfactory for hazard calculations involving earthquakes with M
greater than, say, 6, where one would need to define the finite rupture
surface. However, while forecasting epicenters seems a realistic objective,
identifying a priori the other fault parameters for all seismogenic sources could
be very speculative if not impossible, at least in Italy. As discussed in detail
under Task 4, direct simulations with a finite rupture surface will be run for a
few faults (in the DISS3 database), to estimate hazard in the near field.
The goal is to provide the DPC with a full range of different occurrence
models, but herein it is only intended to push researchers to put them in a
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format adequate for SHA purposes, i. e. the formulation of “new” models is not
a goal, since this should be one of the S1 objectives. While it is hoped that
models are built using reliable and complete datasets (earthquake catalogs,
paleoseismological records, unclustered catalogs, and so on), this is not
considered as a major issue for S2. Scientists have to produce SHA now,
accounting for presently available information. Our aim is to achieve this goal
properly, taking the most relevant uncertainties into account.
Through Task 6, a “degree of reliability” will also be assigned to each
occurrence model. A few of the modules developed in this Task should
effectively benefit from some of the work carried out in S1. In particular,
possible refinements in the estimation of seismogenic fault parameters could
be eventually included into the ER models based on faults.
T2.1:Model based on Poisson occurrences applied to the official
seismotectonic zonation ZS9.
This activity is intended to create a module that mimics the ER used in the
official SH map for Italy. This will help to compare the effectiveness of the
other time-dependent modules.
T2.2: Ditto, but applied to a regular grid (smoothed seismicity).
While the module developed in this activity is time-independent as the
previous one, the difference is that it does not include any seismotectonic
zonation but uses a spatial distribution derived empirically from that of past
earthquakes. The main goal is to give insight on the weight carried by a model
of seismic source zones, through the comparison of the results obtained from
T2.1 and T2.2.
T2.3: ER model based on a double branching process.
In some recent studies on the global seismicity, it is argued that earthquakes
tend to cluster in time with different characteristic times. Besides a well
established cluster of few years, there seems to be a longer cluster that can
last decades (Lombardi and Marzocchi, 2007). This long-term clustering could
be responsible for the long-term modulations in seismicity that appear in many
seismic catalogs, and it raises doubts on the validity of the stationarity
hypothesis that stands behind most SHA models. In this activity, we intend to
produce a code that estimates seismic rates for different magnitudes by using
this model.
T2.4: ER model based on a Brownian Passage Time (BPT) behavior applied
to the seismogenic structures of DISS 3.
The DISS 3 catalog (http://legacy.ingv.it/DISS/) represents an “official” catalog
of active seismogenic structures for Italy developed in past DPC-INGV
projects. In this activity, an occurrence model will be built by imposing a
characteristic behavior to a seismogenic structure. In particular, the time
dependence will follow a BPT distribution, while the size is controlled by the
dimension of the structure (“characteristic” size). The method is used in
California. This model and that of the following Task will be also compared
and tested against the characteristic earthquake model already existing in the
available version of CRISIS07 (Ordaz et al. 1991)
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T2.5: ER based on a mixed approach smoothed seismicity – characteristic
recurrence model.
This activity aims to produce a module based on two mixed source model to
be used for the seismic hazard assessment. The mixed model incorporates
both smoothed historical seismicity over the area and geological information
on faults. The first part uses the background earthquake model “smoothed
seismicity” based on seismicity from historical and instrumental earthquake
catalogs for small-to-moderate events, which do not occur on the principal
faults; the second part of the mixed model uses the maximum magnitude
model for the fault sources of DISS3 database together with an extended
source model, termed “floating fault” for those faults where earthquakes
cannot be correlated with known geologic structural segmentation. This
second occurrence model expresses the time-dependence using a Brownian
Passage Time (BPT) recurrence processes to predict the future earthquake
occurrences across the region. This approach has currently been used in the
preparation of seismic hazard maps for California and United States and the
Marmara Region, Turkey.
T2.6: Development of an ER model based on an interacting fault population
(DISS 3) by using a Coulomb Failure Function model linked to a recurrence
time model for each fault. This activity aims at producing an occurrence model
that includes that described in T2.4, but it allows faults to interact. This is
achieved through a Coulomb Failure Function and the Stein’s et al (1997)
model that transform the stress induced into an increase (or decrease) of
probability of occurrence.
Deliverables
D2.1. Module for ER model based on Poisson applied to ZS9 (nature:
software code)
D2.2. Module for ER model based on Poisson applied to a regular grid
(nature: software code)
D2.3. Module for ER model based on a double branching process (nature:
software code)
D2.4. Module for ER model based on the Brownian Passage Time model
applied to the faults of DISS 3 dataset (nature: software code)
D2.5. Module for ER model based on a mixed process (smoothed seismicity
plus recurrence model of largest faults) (nature: software code)
D2.6. Module for ER model based on interacting faults DISS 3 dataset
(nature: software code)
Task 3: Ground motion attenuation and site effects
This Task will make available a selection of appropriate tools, and software
modules, to quantify the attenuation of ground motion (or other intensity
measures), and also to allow the coupling with numerically simulated ground
motions through the basic and generalized attenuation classes that will be
used in the main software code of Task 1. In addition to the standard handling
of site effects in parametric and non-parametric models, the feasibility of
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introducing broader site classes, e. g. to account for topographic amplification,
will also be addressed.
To broaden the allowable choices, attenuation tools for macroseismic intensity
will also be included. Thus, the goal is here is to provide the users with a wide
range of models and computational tools to transfer the source
characteristics into those of the site ground motion. The leading activities will
consist of:
T3.1: Basic ground motion attenuation tools
The selection will be performed of a number among the most complete and
updated published empirical equations predicting the attenuation of response
spectral ordinates over a wide band of vibration periods ( to at least 10s). The
applicability of, and comparison with, the NGA (New Generation Attenuation)
developed in California to the European and Italian context is to be carefully
explored in the selection process. Integration/testing of the published material
is possibly foreseen in this activity only in respect of:
- the sensitivity of SHA predictions in areas of low modal magnitude (say M <
5.5) to the
lower magnitude bound of the calibration dataset,
- statistical testing on the regional dependence of the (deterministic)
predictions.
For interfacing with Task 1, attenuation described both by analytical
expressions and in tabular from will be provided.
A selection/consolidation process among existing empirical expressions for
macroseismic intensity (possibly converted into the EMS98) will be carried
out, similar to that in T3.1
This is designed to meet an imminent demand from seismic codes that the
dependence of elastic spectra on site conditions be quantified through a
smooth function of site parameters such as Vs30, as already undertaken in
the previous (2005-07) S5 project. Such approach will allow to treat “rock”
sites more realistically in SHA, depending for instance on how much VS30 will
exceed the conventional limit of 800 m/s. Anchoring the ground motion
prediction achieved in this approach to simplified geological zonation
extracted e. g. from 1:100,000 (or smaller) scale maps will also be
investigated, instead of keeping on referring to hypothetical exposed bedrock
conditions.
A second possible generalization will consider the feasibility of including in the
attenuation prediction not only the ground type but also topographic
amplification, or other site effects. This may allow to make use of the forms
prepared by the Italian “comuni” describing qualitatively the local geomorphological setting .
T3.4 Generalized attenuation class for synthetic ground motions.
Some applications, even in this project (Task 4), may call for inserting into the
PSHA engine of Task 1 not a conventional attenuation equation, but the
results of full-fledged ground motion simulations at given receiver points, e. g.
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the peak values or other parameters of interest, or the results of complex
attenuation equation including source effects. This activity will design the
required interfacing and document its performance with illustrative examples.
Deliverables
D3.1. Consolidated models for basic ground motion attenuation (report, max
12 mo.)
D3.2. Consolidated models for attenuation of macroseismic intensity (report,
max. 12 mo.)
D3.3. Module for processing the results of user-generated ground motions
simulations, or those of complex attenuation equation including source
effects, and injecting them into the SHA engine, in cooperation with activities
T1.1 and T1.3 (computer programme).
Task 4: Alternative approaches to quantification of ground motion, with
emphasis on the near field region
It was previously stated that the SHA architecture envisaged in the project
will allow for the use of ground motion descriptions other than those yielded
by empirical attenuation equations, for instance user generated motions with
deterministic source and wave propagation simulations (physically based
stochastic simulations would also be conceivable). Task 4 explicitly adopts
this perspective for the purpose of integrating and strengthening SH
evaluations in critical zones where the probabilistic approach will be fraught
with higher-than- average uncertainties and, especially, unable to account for
first-order features (source- surface geology interaction, radiation pattern
etc…) with strong impact on ground motions in the near field of significant
earthquake sources. Thus, the task can be subdivided in two activities:
T4.1 Scenario simulations.
This activity consists of selecting some seismogenic sources (faults, e. g. from
the DISS database), believed to be responsible for a number of destructive
historical earthquakes (especially in the Central and Southern Apennines),
and derive from them a family of simplified geometrical and mechanical
models spanning across a reasonable range of parameters, so that the extent
of the main uncertainties can be covered. Then, purely deterministic (for
frequencies < 2Hz)
and hybrid deterministic-stochastic source and
propagation simulations are envisaged for different fault rupture scenarios
(but including important features such as the dominant near-surface geology),
and the results in terms of representative ground motion parameters
appropriately enveloped.
As regards the computational tools to be used in this Task, and in Task 3,
where large scale 2D/3D simulations are envisaged for near-field
configurations and "generalized" descriptions of ground motion attenuation,
two options are envisaged.
For the fully 3-D (and 2-D) problems we shall be using the Spectral Element
(SE) method, extensively published by Faccioli and his co-workers, and
Quarteroni and co-workers, starting from 1996, and the computational code
GeoElse. For simpler configurations, involving a 1-D crustal profile, simpler
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wave-number expansion methods (like Hisada's) for finite sources will be
used.
Indirect validation of the results with the highest macro-seismic intensity
contours will be sought, as illustrated in the following example, representing
the fault-normal PGV contours calculated for a 1908-like rupture on the
Messina Straits fault (surface projection enclosed in dashed red lines),
compared with the MCS intensity XI contour (area in blue shading).
PGV
fault normal
0.3 m/s
0.5 m/s
.
The simulation was conducted here by the method of Hisada (with a
stochastic component added to rupture propagation speed and slip
amplitude), and the result of interest is that an overall qualitative agreement
exists between the general shape of the highest intensity isoseismal and the
PGV contours, rather than the matching of numerical values of intrinsically
different parameters .
T4.2 Merging deterministic scenarios and probabilistic SHA.
This activity aims to create a quantitative and suitable interface for introducing
the results of the deterministic scenarios of activity T4.1 in the SH maps or
other representations. Specifically, the results of the waveform simulations
conducted for a selected source rupture (seen as different realisations of a
process), given in the form of a grid of median values and associated
dispersion measures , will be used to compute, as a function of position, the
first two moments of the intensity measure value. In turn, these two moments
will be used to compute the term P(X>x | occurrencei) with reference to
equation A7 of Field et al. (2003), i. e.
Where “i” refers to the seismic source and “s” to the earthquake rupture
occurrence on a given source.
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Deliverables
D4.1. Selection of seismogenic sources and nearby zones to be simulated,
definition of simplified models and parameter ranges (report, 9 mo.)
D4.2. Numerical scenario simulations on the source models of D4.1 and
representation of results consistent with SH purposes (report and digital
ground shaking maps)
Task 5: Probabilistic risk assessment
The Task will select and calibrate an appropriate, PEER-type probabilistic
approach for evaluating the seismic risk in earthquake loss scenarios, and
demonstrate their performance through application to one or more sample
areas.
The reference (PEER) probabilistic formulation in terms of
exceedence rates is of the form
λ ( DV ) = ∫ ∫ ∫ G ( DV / DM )dG ( DM / EDP )dG ( EDP / IM ) dλ ( IM )
where DM is a Damage Measure, DV the Damage Value, EDP the
Engineering Demand Parameter, IM the Intensity Measure for the strength of
ground shaking, and λ is the damage exceedence rate.
The input hazard forecasting (probabilities and rates for IM) will be provided
by the output of the various models adopted in the other S2 activities
(especially Task 1). The main overall purpose of the task is the analysis of
the sensitivity of the damage and loss estimates to the different earthquake
occurrence models, seismotectonic assumptions, and handling of attenuation.
Emphasis lies on the physical damage expected in significant categories of
objects at risk (ordinary buildings and monuments) and on direct and indirect
consequences (homeless, dead and injured people, unsafe buildings,
economic losses), evaluated through consolidated international models.
Special attention is devoted to the uncertainties affecting the parameters of
the buildings structure, of the SH input and of the limit states, and to their
propagation in evaluating the damage scenarios. Use is foreseen of fragility
curves estimated by existing mechanical models through a probabilistic
approach accounting for the variability of parameters and models involved.
After investigating the role of each uncertain quantity, and defining its first two
moments, the fragility curves will be defined through probabilistic analyses,
capable of accounting for the actual uncertainties. As an independent
validation of the proposed method, dynamic non-linear analyses will be
performed, so as to check in specific cases the variability assumed in the
engineering damage parameter (EDP, e.g. the top displacement of a
building), for a given intensity measure (IM) and for various building types.
The main activities will consist of:
T5.1. Tools for large scale damage assessment.
One or more simplified methods based on the structural performance (e.g. in
terms of displacement) will be selected among existing ones, and suitably
adjusted to the project purposes.
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T5.2. Verification of effectiveness of IM used in T5.1
This will be carried out in some representative cases by performing non-linear
dynamic analyses on different types of structures, using as excitation selected
sets of recorded strong ground motions.
T5.3. Uncertainty estimation
To be achieved through simplified methods for the evaluation of the annual
frequency rate of the damage levels, see equation at top of this page.
T5.4. Applications at regional or urban scale
Applications of the simplified method(s) of T5.1 are planned to calculate the
damage level occurrence for structures representative of the Italian built
stock. Different hazard estimates will be used as input in accordance with the
output of the other Tasks. Sample areas for the applications could be the
Liguria region, and the Catania municipality.
Deliverables
D5.1. Method(s) for large scale damage assessment, including independent
verification of their effectiveness and uncertainty estimation (report)
D5.2. Applications: damage and loss scenarios at regional/urban level for
different SH inputs (report)
Task 6. Model validation
One of the basic requirements to obtain a reliable and sound SHA is the
possibility to validate quantitatively the estimates obtained. Generally
speaking, the “validation analysis” covers two issues: 1) the goodness-of-fit of
each model, i.e., checking if observations are well explained by the model
under consideration; 2) the comparison of the forecasting performances of
different models. Both issues are of obvious and great importance in SHA,
since it is the only way to assign a “degree of reliability” to any SHA model,
and to reduce significantly the epistemic uncertainty. Despite that, this issue is
until now insufficiently explored. In this task we intend to set up a series of
quantitative statistical and probabilistic procedures to validate ER (see Task
2) and SHA models, by using available observations. Most efforts in this task
will be interacting with other international initiatives like CSEP and NERIES.
As indicated below, some improvements with respect to CSEP are envisaged,
in order to include in testing also other ground motion parameters such as
acceleration, or intensity.
In the following, we outline the main activities of the task with a brief
description.
T6.1: Definition of testing procedures for probabilistic ER models.
ER models are one of the basic components of SHA. Until now, different if not
antithetic models are commonly used increasing significantly the epistemic
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uncertainty attached to the final SHA estimations. In this field, there is an
important international initiative named CSEP, and in this activity we aim at
defining a set of tests for validating ER models in accordance to such
initiatives. The final goal is to identify the “best” ER model to be applied in
SHA.
T6.2: Definition of testing procedures for SH models, by using accelerograms,
and macro-seismic intensity.
This activity is in some respects similar to the previous one, the main
difference being in the kind of observable considered and in the class of
models to be tested. Here, quantitative rules will be explored and eventually
developed for validating SHA models, using the accelerograms, and the
macro-seismic intensity. The accelerograms data were recorded in the last
decades and collected systematically in S4 project as a set of quantitative
measurements. For what concerns the macro-seismic intensity data, the
incomparable historical heritage of Italy brought us an important set of such a
kind of semi-qualitative observations. In this activity we will try to figure out
methods to use these information for model validation purposes. Particular
care will be devoted to the limited resolution of such information. Despite the
differences in the models and observables compared to the previous activity,
we will try to keep the procedures as similar as possible, modifying them only
if necessary from a statistical point of view.
T6.3: Procedure based on application of “credibility” criteria.
This activity will extend the range of models susceptible of application of the
method of Grandori et al. (2006) which, through few statistical tests, can lead
to rational decisions concerning the credibility of two competing models for the
estimation of a specific hazard parameter, e. g. PGA. In particular, for the
credibility of the ground motion parameter, the definition of the magnitude
distribution models and the geometric description of the seismic zone will be
considered. For the estimation of the occurrence probability, the work will first
focus on occurrence models of renewal type. In a second phase, the
procedure will be applied taking into account the results obtained from the
other Tasks of the project.
T6.4: Development of “retrospective forward tests” to evaluate a posteriori the
relative performances of the models developed in Task 2, and previous SH
maps.
In this activity we intend to set up “retrospective forward tests” for validating
ER models described in task 2, and previous SH maps. In particular, we
define “learning periods”, where the models can be optimized, and
independent “testing” periods, where the forecasting capability of each model
is evaluated and compared. The goal is to provide a first “scoring” to the
reliability of each model considered in Task 2, and, possibly, a first evaluation
of the performances of previous maps in terms of ground acceleration and
macro-seismic intensity observations.
Deliverables
D6.1. Guidebook for ER model validation (Nature: report)
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D6.2. Guidebook for SH model validation (Nature: report)
D6.3. Report on the results of “retrospective forward” tests of ER and SH
models (Nature: report).
5. Main references
Abrahamson N. A. (2000). State of the practice of seismic hazard evaluation,
GeoEng 2000 Conference Proceedings, Melbourne, Australia, 19–24
November.
Adams J. and G. Atkinson (2003). Development of seismic hazard maps for
the proposed 2005 edition of the National Building Code of Canada, Canadian
J. of Civil Engineering,
30(2): 255-271.
Cauzzi C. and E. Faccioli (2008). Broadband (0.05s to 20s) prediction of
displacement response spectra calibrated on worldwide digital records,
accepted for publication (with request of minor revisions) in J. Seismol.
Cornell, C. A. (1968). Engineering seismic risk analysis, Bull. Seismol. Soc.
Am., 58, 1583-1606.
Cornell, C. A. and H. Krawinkler (2000). Progress and challenges in seismic
performance
assessment,
PEER
Center
News
(http://peer.berkeley.edu/news/2000spring), Pacific Earthquake Engineering
Research Center, Berkeley, California.
Douglas, J (2007). On the regional dependence of earthquake response
spectra. ISET Journal of Earthquake Technology 44 (1), 71-99.
Field, E. H., Jordan, T. H., and C. A. Cornell (2003). OpenSHA A developing
community-modeling environment for seismic hazard analysis, Seism. Res.
Lett. 74: 406-419.
Field, E. H, Seligson H. A, Gupta N., Gupta V., Jordan T. H., and K. W.
Campbell (2005) Loss Estimates for a Puente Hills Blind-Thrust Earthquake in
Los Angeles, California. Earthquake Spectra 21(2): 329 – 338
Grandori G., E. Guagenti, L. Petrini (2006). Earthquake catalogues and
modelling strategies. A new testing procedure for the comparison between
competing models. J. Seismol., 10, 259-269.
Lombardi A.M., and W. Marzocchi (2007). Evidence of clustering and
nonstationarity in the time distribution of large worldwide earthquakes. J.
Geophys. Res., 112, B02303, doi:10.1029/2006JB004568.
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Ordaz M., J. M. Jara, and S. K. Singh (1991). Riesgo sismico y espectros de
diseño en el Estado de Guerrero. Technical Report, Instituto de Ingeniería,
UNAM, Mexico City.
Schorlemmer D., M.C. Gerstenberger, S. Wiemer, D.D. Jackson, D.A:
Rhoades (2007). Earthquake likelihood model testing. Seismol. Res. Lett., 78,
17-29.
Stein R.S., A.A. Barka, and J.H. Dieterich (1997). Progressive failure on the
North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering. Geophys. J.
Int., 128, 594-604.
WGCEP (2003). http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2003/of03-214/
6. Deliverables
D1.1. Open-source code for SHA (Nature: software code)
D1.2. User manual of the code (Nature: report)
D1.3. Simulations of the code in order to evaluate the relative weights of the
scientific
components in terms of damages (Nature: report)
D2.1. Module for ER model based on Poisson applied to ZS9 (nature:
software code)
D2.2. Module for ER model based on Poisson applied to a regular grid
(nature: software
code)
D2.3. Module for ER model based on a double branching process (nature:
software code)
D2.4. Module for ER model based on the Brownian Passage Time model
applied to the
faults of DISS 3 dataset (nature: software code)
D2.5. Module for ER model based on a mixed process (smoothed seismicity
plus
recurrence model of largest faults) (nature: software code)
D2.6. Module for ER model based on interacting faults DISS 3 dataset
(nature: software
code)
D3.1. Consolidated models for basic ground motion attenuation (report, max
12 mo.)
D3.2. Consolidated models for attenuation of macroseismic intensity (report,
max. 12 mo.)
D3.3. Module for processing the results of user-generated ground motions
simulations and
injecting them into the SHA engine, in cooperation with activities T1.1
and T1.3
(computer programme).
D4.1. Selection of seismogenic sources and nearby zones to be simulated,
definition of
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simplified models and parameter ranges (report, 9 mo.)
D4.2. Numerical scenario simulations on the source models of D4.1 and
representation of
results consistent for SH purposes (report and digital ground shaking
maps)
D5.1. Method(s) for large scale damage assessment, including independent
verification
of their effectiveness and uncertainty estimation
D5.2. Applications: damage and loss scenarios at regional/urban level for
different SH
inputs
D6.1. Guidebook for ER model validation (Nature: report)
D6.2. Guidebook for SH model validation (Nature: report)
D6.3. Report on the results of “retrospective forward” tests of ER and SH
models (Nature:
report).
7. Workplanning
I
Phase
II
1
Semester
2
1
2
T1.1: Definition and design of the “basic classes”
X
-
-
-
T1.2: Definition of the probabilistic framework to merge
scientific components of SHA and to propagate uncertainties
X
X
-
-
T1.3: Design, development and testing of the software code
X
X
X
X
-
-
-
X
T2.1: Development of a model based on Poisson occurrences
applied to the official seismotectonic zonation ZS9
X
X
-
-
T2.2: Ditto, but applied to a regular grid (smoothed seismicity)
X
X
-
-
X
X
X
-
X
X
X
-
X
X
X
-
X
X
X
-
X
X
T1.4: SHA applictions to evaluate weight of different scientific
components in terms of expected damages
T2.3: Development of an ER model based on a double
branching process.
T2.4: Development of an ER model based on a Brownian
Passage Time (BPT) behavior applied to the seismogenic
structures of DISS 3
T2.5: Development of an ER model based on a mixture
approach: a smoothed seismicity background for small-tomoderate magnitudes, and a “characteristic” recurrence model
for larger magnitudes
T2.6: Development of an ER model based on an interacting
fault population (DISS 3) by using a CFF model linked to a
recurrence time model for each fault
T3.1: Basic ground motion and attenuation tools
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-
X
X
X
X
X
-
T3.4 Generalized attenuation class for synthetic ground motions
X
X
X
-
-
X
X
X
T4.2 Merging deterministic scenarios and probabilistic SHA
X
X
X
X
T5.1: Tools for large scale damage assessment
X
X
-
-
-
-
X
X
X
X
X
-
-
-
X
X
T6.1: Definition of testing procedures for probabilistic ER
models
X
X
-
-
T6.2: Testing procedures for SH models, by using
accelerograms, and macro-seismic intensity
X
X
-
-
T6.3: Approach based on “credibility” criteria
-
-
X
X
T6.4: Development of “retrospective forward tests” to evaluate
a posteriori the relative performances of the models developed
in task 2, and of previous SH maps
-
X
X
X
T4.1 Scenario simulations
T5.2: Verification of effectiveness of IM used in T5.1
T5.3: Uncertainty estimation
T5.4: Applications at regional or urban scale
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-
8. Personnel
RU responsible
Task/RU
(surname and name)
Months/Person
Months/Person
(not funded by the project)
(funded by the project)
I phase
II phase
I phase
II phase
UNAM
15
15
2
2
Institution
RU1
Mario Ordaz Schroeder
RU2
Ezio Faccioli
Politecnico Milano
9.5
9.5
30.6
36.6
RU3
Carlo Meletti
INGV Milano
22
22
-
-
RU4
Laura Peruzza
OGS – Univ.
Chieti
8.5
7.5
12
8
RU5
Warner Marzocchi
INGV Roma 1
21
21
2
2
RU6
Dario Albarello
Univ. Siena
3
3
-
-
RU7
Sergio Lagomarsino
Univ. Genova
3
3
18
18
9.1. I phase
Type of expenditure
Importo
previsto
a
(total)
(Personnel)
(Travels for data collection, collaborations,
etc.)
3)
Costi
Amministrativi
(solo
per
professionali
(Maintenance
and
assistance
of
instrumentation and computers, technical
services, etc.)
uso
7) Spese indirette
(Overheads)
Total
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
(DPC contribution)
Co-finanziamento
c = a-b
(co-funded)
70 600
0,00
60 150
0,00
1 600
128 800
0,00
4 000
0,00
70 200
0,00
35 150
0,00
0,00
370 500
0,00
Importo
previsto
a
(total)
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
(DPC contribution)
Co-finanziamento
c = a-b
(co-funded)
9.2. II phase
Type of expenditure
(Personnel)
etc.)
3)
Costi
Amministrativi
(solo
per
professionali
(Maintenance
and
assistance
of
services, etc.)
uso
7) Spese indirette
(Overheads)
Total
72 950
0,00
60 300
0,00
12 000
106 800
0,00
5 000
0,00
31 700
0,00
30 750
0,00
0,00
319 500
0,00
Importo
previsto
a
(total)
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
(DPC contribution)
Co-finanziamento
c = a-b
(co-funded)
143 550
0,00
120 450
0,00
9.3. Total
Type of expenditure
(Personnel)
etc.)
3)
Costi
Amministrativi
(solo
per
professionali
(Maintenance
and
assistance
of
services, etc.)
uso
7) Spese indirette
(Overheads)
Total
13 600
0,00
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235 600
0,00
9 000
0,00
101 900
0,00
65 900
0,00
690 000
0,00
84/191
Project S3
Fast evaluation of parameters and effects
of strong earthquakes in Italy and in the
Mediterranean
Progetto S3
Valutazione rapida dei parametri e degli
effetti dei forti terremoti
in Italia e nel Mediterraneo
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86/191
Progetto S3
Titolo: Valutazione rapida dei parametri e degli effetti dei forti terremoti
in Italia e nel Mediterraneo
Coordinatori: Alberto Michelini e Antonio Emolo
Riassunto (max 1 page) – per uso interno DPC
Questo progetto è diviso in due sezioni. La prima verte sul calcolo della mappe di
scuotimento (shakemap) in tempo quasi reale per terremoti che si verificano sul territorio
nazionale e zone immediatamente adiacenti. La seconda si focalizza sulla stima rapida dei
parametri di sorgente dei forti terremoti nell’area mediterranea e potenzialmente
tsunamigenici.
a.) La shakemap è una rappresentazione grafica dello scuotimento risultante da un
terremoto. Per ottenerla si complementano dati osservati del movimento del suolo (PGA,
PGV, ordinate spettrali, ...) con stime dello stesso ottenute mediante relazioni predittive in
funzione della magnitudo e della distanza e correzioni che tengono conto dell’effetto di
sito. Quanto più dense sono le osservazioni nell’area di interesse tanto più accurata
risulterà la mappa di scuotimento prodotta. Questa sezione del progetto si articola in tre
parti: scambio dati, servizio shakemap e ricerche mirate al miglioramento del servizio.
Scambio dati: Si intende raggiungere la massima disponibilità dei dati da parte di tutte le
UR partecipanti al progetto. Accesso ai dati delle Rete Accelerometrica Nazionale (RAN) è
essenziale per la riuscita del progetto. A tal fine si adopereranno protocolli specifici per lo
scambio dati sismologici in tempo reale o quasi reale, e per la loro successiva
archiviazione e distribuzione.
Servizio shakemap: Si intende raggiungere configurazioni omogenea tra le installazioni ai
diversi centri di elaborazione (medesime relazioni predittive del moto del suolo e correzioni
per gli effetti locali mediante VS30).
Ricerca shakemap: Verranno condotte le seguenti ricerche principali: sviluppo di
metodologie alternative a VS30 per il calcolo degli effetti di sito; determinazione di nuove
leggi predittive del moto del suolo per M<5.5; indagini sull’accuratezza e la robustezza
delle shakemap calcolate; sviluppo di metodologie per l’introduzione della sorgente estesa
nel calcolo delle mappe.
b.) L’obiettivo è di stimare in tempo quasi reale i parametri di sorgente ed il potenziale
tsunamigenico per forti terremoti (M>6) nel Mediterraneo. Per conseguire l’obiettivo
verranno implementati il software di acquisizione ed elaborazione SeisComP3 sviluppato
dal GFZ di Potsdam per il “German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System for the
Indian Ocean” (GITEWS) ed Earthworm sviluppato dall’USGS. A questo si affiancheranno
l’implementazione e l’uso di metodi robusti ed accurati per il calcolo di localizzazione,
magnitudo, potenziale tsunamigenico, tensore momento, faglia finita e di predizioni delle
variazioni del livello del mare indotte da tsunami per diverse aree sorgente. Si intende
infine verificare la disponibilità di dati mareografi in tempo quasi reale.
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Tutte le attività di cui sopra prevedono l’organizzazione dell’informazione in modo
accessibile al personale DPC con interfacce software e moduli per la comunicazione
riservata da INGV a DPC ed al pubblico.
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Project S3
Title: Fast evaluation of parameters and effects of strong earthquakes
in Italy and in the Mediterranean
1. Coordinators
- Personal data: Alberto Michelini, “Dirigente di Ricerca”, INGV
- Contacts ([email protected], +39 06 518 60 611, +39 335 522 2168)
- Personal data: Antonio Emolo, “Ricercatore”, University Federico II, Naples
- Contacts ([email protected], +39 081 2420317, +39 081 676822 , +39 339
2811158)
2. Objectives
This project consists of two somewhat independent parts. The first is the shakemap project
which can be viewed as the continuation of an analogous project that was supported by
the Dipartimento per la Protezione Civile (DPC) in the years 2005-2007 (i.e., DPC-S4
2005-2007). The second part of the project is new as it has never been funded before by
the DPC and it addresses the fast determination of the source parameters (earthquake
hypocenter and size) and of the tsunamigenic potential for M>6 earthquakes in the
Mediterranean sea and neighboring areas.
The shakemap project follows from the need of the DPC to have very rapidly a clear and
objective assessment of the impact that an earthquake has on the Italian territory. To this
end, it is of fundamental importance to gain information using both observed experimental
data (e.g., peak ground motion parameters such as PGA, PGV, PSA) and seismologically
derived predictions based on the source parameters (hypocenter, magnitude, faulting). In
fact, the software analysis package ShakeMap® (Wald et al., 1999a) has been designed
to this purpose. The standard results provided by this package are maps of PGA, PGV,
PSA and Modified Mercalli Intensities (MMI). The latter MMI maps are determined through
a conversion table from PGA and PGV to MMI (Wald et al., 1999b). Therefore the MMI
maps are effectively data derived and are thus instrumental intensity maps.
While grossly simplifying the problem, ShakeMap® can be assimilated to a seismologically
based interpolation algorithm that exploits the available data of the observed ground
motion, and the available seismological knowledge, to determine maps of ground motion
at local and regional scales. Thus, in addition to the data that are essential to derive
realistic and accurate results, fundamental ingredients towards obtaining accurate maps
are
i.)
ground motion predictive relationship (GMPEs) as function of distance at
different periods and for different magnitudes, and
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ii.)
realistic descriptions of the amplifications that the local site geology - the site
effects – induce on the incoming seismic wavefield.
Currently in Italy the shakemaps are determined on a routine basis by INGV for the entire
Italian territory and adjacent areas and by the University of Trieste (DST-UNITS) and the
University of Genova (DPTERIS-UNIGE) for the Friuli and the NW Italy regions,
respectively. Other institutions (OGS and University of Naples) are also planning
implementation of the software and publication of the maps. This proliferation of
installations has some disadvantages and many advantages. The disadvantages can
derive primarily from poor coordination between the different seismic centers (e.g.,
different published solutions for the same earthquake) resulting in an overall lack of
authoritativeness. Conversely, the redundancy following form multiple installations has the
advantage of having each center inherently backed up by the others so that in case of
local failures the other centers will still provide the same information. In addition, multiple
coordinated installations benefit of all the advantages deriving from sharing procedures
and ideas. Establishment of this coordination among the centers will also have a valuable
impact on the public assessing the information and increase the authoritativeness overall.
To the primary goal of “obtaining fast and accurate estimation of peak ground motion maps
(PGA, PGV, PSA, ...) following to earthquakes with M>3.0 in Italy”, the activities will
involve both what we define service and research tasks.
In the service tasks, emphasis will be put on reaching maximum homogenization among
the installations, verification and validation of the input parameters adopted and
coordinated publication of the results.
For the research part, much emphasis is put on the adoption of more realistic – although
simplified - extended fault model descriptions than those currently standard to the package
(i.e., currently a rectangular fault with no account for directivity is implemented), and the
use of high-frequency synthetic waveforms rather than GMPEs for ground motion
calculation at the phantom points of the grid mesh used to the interpolation of the
shakemaps. For the site effects part, while verifying the robustness of the solutions using
different site classifications, new approaches will be tried. Here the underlying idea is to
determine absolute site terms at the recording stations using the techniques recently
proposed by Malagnini and co-workers and then correlate tentatively the results obtained
with the local geology. Robustness and accuracy of the shakemaps is another field that
will be addressed during the project. The latter studies will be complemented with
comparisons between the shakemaps and other methods aimed toward estimation of
damage – macroseismic questionnaire and the KF function.
The primary objective of the second part of the project is the fast determination of the
source parameters and of the tsunamigenic potential for M≥6 in the Mediterranean area.
To this goal the activities will involve i.) assuring that as many as possible data from the
broadband stations in the circum-Mediterranean regions are acquired at the INGV seismic
center, ii.) the implementation of fast and robust data acquisition systems (e.g.,
SeisComP3, Earthworm), iii.) use of robust earthquake location algorithms (e.g.,
NonLinLoc), iv.) fast magnitude estimators (e.g., Mwp, Mwpd), v.) point source moment
tensor determination, vi.) finite fault modeling and determination of tsunami potential and
vii.) potential use of the sea level data as recorded by the RMN-Rete Mareografica
Nazionale in quasi real time for alert verification.
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3. State of the art
Data exchange
Various procedures and formats have been implemented for full waveform data exchange
in real-time. In Europe, the most common format for real-time data exchange is MiniSEED
and this is exchanged between centers and stations using the SeedLink server software
relying on TCP/IP real-time data communication and SeedLink clients for monitor plotting
and disk recording. SeedLink is a simple real-time data exchange protocol developed by
Hanka et al. (2000). For parametric data, the EIDS (Earthquake Information Distribution
System; http://www.cisn.org/ahpeid/ahpeid_final.pdf) is currently adopted for real-time
exchange by CISN (California Integrated Seismic Network) and it has been shown fast and
robust for data exchange. At INGV, it is ongoing the implementation EIDS within the
participation to the NERIES project.
Shakemaps
This type of analysis has been proposed by Wald et al. (1999ab) to produce maps of peak
ground motion shaking using data and seismologically based information. The larger the
number of data the more accurate is the resulting shakemap. On the seismological
analysis side, the analysis relies on i.) GMPEs, ii.) VS30 classification of the territory for
local site effects and, iii.) for M>5.5 earthquakes, to simplified descriptions of the fault
plane. To produce the shakemaps, the USGS has designed and developed the public
domain ShakeMap® package. This package is now a mature product implemented
throughout the USA and in many countries worldwide. It is open source and an it features
a modular architecture relying mainly on the Perl software language. At INGV, both
versions 3.1 and 3.2 are installed and maps are produced for M>3 earthquakes within Italy
and immediately neighboring regions.
To date, there have been very few studies that have addressed the uncertainties of the
shakemaps. In fact, “there are multiple sources of uncertainty in producing a shakemap,
including sparse ground motion measurements, approximate representation of fault
finiteness and directivity, empirical ground motion predictions, numerical interpolation, and
site corrections” (Lin et al. 2005). The overall goal is to couple each shakemap with a
correspondent map that indicates the variance at each point of the shakemap. To this
regard, the next version of the package (3.3) is expected to include evaluations of the
shakmap uncertainties (Wald, personal communication). To date in Italy, there have not
been performed tests quantifying the uncertainties of the shakemaps.
Damage assessment from macroseismic and Kinematic Function intensities
The KF function proposed by Sirovich (1996) has been used extensively in the past years
to invert observed intensities for the source parameters of several historical earthquakes
(e.g., Pettenati and Sirovich, 2003; Sirovich and Pettenati, 2004) and comparisons have
been made with earthquakes recorded instrumentally. The obtained results appear
encouraging and recently the KF technique has been used just for the forward calculation
to calculate intensity scenarios (Sirovich and Pettenati, submitted).
Internet and the development of web interfaces has opened new frontiers to the use of
macroseismic intensity data that otherwise required specialized teams to go out to the field
to make the investigation. In many countries, the main seismological institutes and
observatories have posted on their web pages macroseismic questionnaires that can be
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easily compiled by the public (e.g., USA, Switzerland, Italy, ...). For the USA it is often
remarkable the close match between the reported intensities and those determined
automatically from the instrumental data in the shakemaps.
Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs)
Predictive relationships are usually obtained using the classical approach of performing
regressions on large numbers of strong-motion recordings (Boore and Joyner, 1991;
Atkinson and Boore, 1995; Ambraseys et al., 1996; Atkinson and Silva, 1997; Campbell,
1997; Sabetta and Pugliese, 1996). Recently, GMPEs were derived, by empirical
regression, as a part of the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center’s Next
Generation Attenuation project (PEER NGA) (Power et al. 2006), using strong motion
database of thousands of mostly Californian records compiled from active shallow crustal.
For all Europe, empirical strong motion models (e.g. Ambraseys et al., 1996; Akkar and
Bommer 2007), have been built, using empirical regression, from very heterogeneous
databases, which include records collected for various tectonic contexts (database derived
from strong motion accelerograms from Europe and the Middle East).
Some issues arise when performing these regressions. For example, it is known that
regional differences in attenuation exist (e.g., Boore 1989; Benz et al. 1997), even within
relatively small regions such as California (e.g., Boatwright et al. 2003). Moreover, many of
the existing predictive relationships for the Italian and European regions (e.g., Ambraseys
et al., 1996; Sabetta and Pugliese, 1987, 1996; Akkar and Bommer 2007) were obtained
by forcing a body-wave geometrical spreading to a distance range where supercritical
reflections at the Moho appear to be of fundamental importance.
Looking at low magnitude events, in most European regions, large database on small
earthquakes are available. The use of such weak motion data to derive strong-motion
predictive relationships valid for low magnitudes is thus a key goal of earthquake
engineering. Several authors have estimated GMPEs through a stochastic point-source
and finite-fault modeling in many part of the world (e.g., Motazedian and Atkinson, 2005;
Atkinson and Boore, 1995; Malagnini et al., 2000ab; Malagnini et al., 2004; Akinci et al.,
2006; among many others). These authors performed regressions starting from very large
data sets of data from regional seismic networks and focus on the propagation
(attenuation) of ground motion at different frequencies.
Site effects
Site effects within the ShakeMap® package are accounted using classifications of the near
surface geology based on VS30. The PGM amplitude values determined on rock are
corrected at that location based on the local site soil (NEHRP, Borcherdt, 1994). This
approach is very convenient in order to have a first order estimate of the site effects but it
ignores other effects due for instance to 2D and 3D wave propagation, path effects (such
as basin edge amplification and focusing).We note that, when producing shakemaps, the
site correction has a more dramatic effect where the station coverage is sparse. In fact,
where there are sufficient ground-motion data, the recorded amplitudes define the site
effects, and nearby site corrections are applied with respect to these observations.
Regardless on whether VS30 is appropriate or not for the site corrections, it remains that
several “in situ” measurements are needed to assign VS30 properly. To this regard, Wald
and Allen (2007) have proposed the use of the gradient of topography as a proxy to
determine VS30 over extended areas where little or no knowledge is available on the
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geology and velocities. This approach seems to provide some first order classification to
the purpose of introducing the site effects.
One difficulty when using the VS30 classification is that often very few measurements of
VS30 are available and, given the regional extension of the shakemaps, this increases the
uncertainty of the applied corrections. Furthermore, it seems that adoption of VS30 to
apply site corrections is an over-simplification of the problem since it does not take into
account i.) the actual thicknesses of the near surface geology and soil, and ii.) the depth of
the seismic bedrock which in Italy is often larger than 30 m.
In general, it seems that a more objective criterion for the site classification should be
based on the local fundamental frequency of the ground which can be estimated
experimentally (e.g., HVSR from noise or earthquake recordings). Alternatively, it would be
desirable to determine absolute site corrections depending on earthquake magnitude and
distance (e.g., Malagnini et al., 2007).
Point source Moment Tensor
In literature there are several procedures that estimate the moment tensor at regional
distances using broadband networks (e.g., Thio and Kanamori, 1995; Dreger et al, 1995;
Fukuyama et al. 1998). Similarly, several efforts have been made to produce reliable
moment tensor determination in near real-time (Gee el al, 1996; Kawakatsu 1998;
Fukuyama and Dreger, 2000; Kubo et al. 2002; Di Luccio et al. 2005; Clinton et al. 2006).
The need for rapid access to earthquake characteristics has grown during the last years.
This is particularly important for significant earthquakes because it provides Civil
Protection Agencies with rapid information about event magnitude and potential extension
of the damaged region. In addition, for large off-shore earthquakes, the availability of
moment tensor solution within few minutes may be crucial for issuing Tsunami warnings
and/or alarms.
Extended fault inversion
Thanks to contemporary computational tools, most seismologists are now facing the
extended fault inversion in its full non-linear formulation. The finite fault is divided into
subfaults with model parameters (i.e. slip amplitude and direction, rupture time and rise
time) assigned at the corners and bilinearly interpolated inside. The slip velocity time
function is chosen to have a dynamically consistent behaviour. All parameters are inverted
simultaneously using global search method, such as genetic algorithm (e.g., Emolo and
Zollo, 2005) or simulated annealing (e.g., Liu and Archuleta, 2004; Piatanesi et al., 2007).
Very recently, some papers also deal with the problem of assessing the uncertainty on the
retrieved model parameters through some a posterior error analysis (Emolo and Zollo,
2005; Custodio and Archuleta, 2007; Piatanesi et al., 2007).
3D Green’s functions
Point source moment tensor inversions are performed using broadband data and require
accurate Green’s functions (GFs). In complex, laterally heterogeneous regions such as
Italy, it has been found that that the 1D GFs become insufficient for moment tensor
inversion at regional scale and at frequencies higher than 0.05 Hz because full waveform
features such as multi-pathing at regional scale, remain unaccounted and map into the
source mechanism (e.g., Li et al., 2007). For finite fault inversions, it is also desirable to
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avail of 3D high frequency GFs but, in general, our current knowledge of the underlying
structures is insufficient to construct faithful velocity models. For this reason and at local
scale (e.g., tens of km from the epicenter) and at high frequencies (a few Hz), finite fault
inversion algorithms adopt generally GFs determined using 1D velocity models. The latter
can be determined locally using, for example, linearized or global search approaches (e.g.,
Li et al., 2007)
For full wave propagation in 3D laterally varying velocity structures, in recent years we
have assisted to great advancements thanks to powerful numerical techniques stemming
from finite differences to finite and spectral elements (SEM) and to the ever increasing
computational power. SEM is capable of handling a wide spectrum of simulations ranging
from geophysical fields both at global and regional scales, up to the seismic engineering
field, and it combines the flexibility of the finite-element method (FEM) with the accuracy of
the pseudospectral method. This successful numerical technique still requires a first and
fundamental step: the decomposition of the computational domain into a family of nonoverlapping hexahedral elements and, in 3D, this is still recognized as a challenging and
unresolved problem, after more than 20 years of active research. As stated above, Italy
has a complex geological structure and a hex meshing strategy of a heterogeneous model
of the whole country is a fundamental challenge in order to achieve an accurate 3D
seismic wave simulation.
Data acquisition systems
Seismic data acquisiton and processing systems are at the core of real-time seismic
monitoring. Many of them have been developed “ad hoc” by data loggers manufacturers
to run their own acquisition systems. Currently there are two major acquisition systems in
use by network and observatories – EarthWorm and Antelope. The former
(http://folkworm.ceri.memphis.edu/ew-doc/) has been developed since the mid-1990s and
is completely open source. It is a very modular system so that many users, in addition to
the original developers at USGS, have contributed to its development. It is now in use at
many observatories in the US and several others overseas and in Europe. Conversely,
Antelope is a proprietary software developed by BRTT (http://www.brtt.com/) and it is also
in use at several observatories throughout the US and many others in Europe.
Recently, GFZ-Potsdam has started the development of a new data acquisition and
processing system (SeisComP3) aimed at obtaining rapid location and magnitude
estimates. The system,, designed for the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning
System (http:// http://www.gitews.org), will be implemented also for the activities of
NEAMTWS (North Eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean Tsunami Warning System,
http://www.ioc-tsunami.org/).
Rapid magnitude determination
Effective tsunami warning and emergency response for large earthquakes requires
accurate knowledge of the event size within 30 minutes or less after the event origin time
(OT). Currently, the earliest, accurate estimates of the size of major and great
earthquakes
worldwide come from moment tensor determinations, including the
authoritative, Global Centroid-Moment Tensor (CMT) determination and corresponding
moment-magnitude, MwCMT (e.g., Ekstrom, 1994; http://www.globalcmt.org). These
estimates are based on long-period, seismic S and surface-wave waveform recordings,
typically not available until an hour or more after OT. The mantle magnitude, Mm, (Okal
and Talandier, 1989) is also based on surface waves and is potentially available within
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minutes after the first Rayleigh wave passage (i.e. about 20 min after OT at 30o
great-circle distance (GCD), and about 50 min after OT at 90o GCD).
Seismic P-waves are the first signals to arrive at seismic recording stations. At teleseismic
distances (30 o-90o GCD) the arrival times of the initial P-wave are used routinely to locate
the earthquake hypocentre within about 10 to 15 minutes after OT. There are a number of
established procedures in use at earthquake and tsunami monitoring centers for rapid
analysis of large earthquakes worldwide using seismic P-waves. The widely used, Mwp
moment-magnitude algorithm (Tsuboi et al., 1995) considers very-broadband, P-wave
displacement seismograms as approximate far-field, source-time functions. For larger
earthquakes worldwide the first magnitude reported by the Pacific Tsunami Warning
Center (PTWC) and the USGS- NEIC is usually Mwp, available in as little as 8-12 minutes
after OT.
More recently, Bormann and Wylegalla (2005) and Saul and Bormann (2007) calculate a
cumulative mB magnitude, mBc, by summing up the peak velocity amplitudes for all
pulses (signal between two consecutive zero crossings) in the P waveform. Automated
calculation of mB and mBc magnitudes within minutes after detection of a large
earthquake
has been implemented by GFZ in Potsdam,
Germany
(http://www.gfz-potsdam.de/geofon) for testing at the Indonesian tsunami warning center
(BMG Jakarta). Hara (2007ab) combines measures of the high-frequency duration and
maximum displacement amplitude of P-waveforms for a set of large, shallow earthquakes
and tsunami to determine an empirical relation for moment magnitude. Lomax et al.
(2007) use teleseismic, P-wave signals to estimate radiated seismic energy, E, and
source duration, T0, and show that an energy-duration moment relation, M0ED=E1/2T03/2,
based on an expression for E from Vassiliou and Kanamori (1982), gives a moment
magnitude, MED, that matches closely MwCMT for a set of recent, large earthquakes. As
an improvement and evolution of MED, Lomax and Michelini (2007, 2008) present a
duration-amplitude procedure for rapid determination of an earthquake moment
magnitude, Mwpd, from P-wave recordings at teleseismic distances.
Tsunami modeling
Tsunamis propagate in the sea as gravity waves; since their wavelength is much larger
than the sea depth, they behave as long waves propagating in shallow water. The
nonlinear shallow water equations are commonly solved using finite difference scheme on
a staggered grid (e.g. Mader, 2004) and applying nested grids and/or adaptative meshing
to achieve high resolution in selected regions (George and LeVeque, 2006). The initial
sea-surface elevation is assumed to be equal to the coseismic vertical displacement of the
seafloor and the initial velocity field is assumed to be zero everywhere (Satake, 2002).
Furthermore, since earthquake rupture velocities are large with respect to tsunami phase
speeds, instantaneous rupture are usually assumed.
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The project is organized through six main tasks. Each task includes work packages (WP).
The tasks, their coordinators and the RU participating are the following (see 4.3 below for
detail on the WPs).
1) Data availability, distribution and archiving (Salvatore Mazza, INGV)
• RU INGV-RM (WP1.1, WP1.2, WP1.3, WP1.4)
• RU INGV-MI (WP1.1, WP1.4)
• RU DST-UNITS (WP1.1, WP1.2, WP1.4)
• RU OGS (WP1.1, WP1.2, WP1.4)
• RU DIPTERIS-UNIGE (WP1.2, WP1.4)
• RU DSF-UNINA (WP1.1, WP1.2, WP1.4)
2) Shakemap service (Daniele Spallarossa, UNIGE)
• RU INGV-RM (WP2.1, WP2.2)
• RU DST-UNITS (WP2.1, WP2.2)
• RU OGS (WP2.1, WP2.2)
• RU DSF-UNINA (WP2.1, WP2.2)
3) Checking and validation of the shakemap results and associated analysis (Luca
Malagnini, INGV)
• RU INGV-RM (WP3.1, WP3.2, WP3.3, WP3.4)
• RU INGV-MI (WP3.4)
• RU OGS (WP3.1, WP3.3, WP3.4)
• RU DIPTERIS-UNIGE (WP3.1, WP3.2, WP3.4)
• RU DSF-UNINA (WP3.1, WP3.4)
• RU DIGA-UNINA (WP3.2)
• RU UNIRM1 (WP3.3)
4) Seismic source estimates and associated effects (Alessio Piatanesi, INGV)
• RU INGV-RM (WP4.1, WP4.2, WP4.3)
• RU DST-UNITS (WP4.1)
• RU OGS (WP4.1, WP4.2)
• RU DIPTERIS-UNIGE (WP4.1)
• RU DSF-UNINA (WP4.1, WP4.2, WP4.3)
5) Fast assessment of source parameters and tsunaimigenic potential for M>6 in the
Mediterranean region (Marco Olivieri, INGV)
• RU INGV-RM (WP5.1, WP5.2, WP5.3, WP5.4 and WP5.5)
• RU INGV-BO (WP5.3)
• RU APAT (WP5.5)
• RU DPG-UNIBO (WP5.4)
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6) Web interface and publication (Valentino Lauciani, INGV & Claudio Satriano, DSFUNINA-AMRA)
• RU INGV-RM (WP6.1, WP6.2, WP6.3)
• RU OGS (WP6.2, WP6.3)
• RU DSF-UNINA (WP6.2,WP6.3)
4.2 Methodology
Task 1 Data availability, distribution and archiving
Objectives
The primary goal of this task is to share the available data and the source parameters
(e.g., hypocenter, magnitude, active fault plane) among the research units (RU) that have
implemented the ShakeMap® package and that on a routine basis determine maps of
strong ground motion shaking. For data in the following are considered either the complete
recorded waveforms or the parametric peak ground motion (PGM) data extracted from the
waveforms (e.g., PGA, PGV, PSA).
Before the description of the data available and the sharing envisaged during the project,
we provide a brief summary of the data exchange issue and of the problems encountered
during the past DPC-S4 2005-2007 project.
Background
In Italy, there are various networks (broadband, BB, and strong motion, SM) run by
different public organizations (mainly research institutions and universities). In the DPCS4 2005-2007 project some poor coordination between the different shakemap centers
and networks resulted eventually. This was very evident for strong motion data exchange
among the different partners of the project. Since the data are essential to generate
accurate shakemaps, this “status quo” hampered in the end the success of the DPC-S4
2005-2007 project.
Existing Data
The map in Figure 1 shows the stations of the current BB and SM networks operating in
Italy. All together there are more than 600 sites and about 480 are equipped with digital
acquisition systems.
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Figure 1. The three maps summarize the distribution of strong motion and broadband networks in Italy.
(solid triangles: currently available strong motion stations; open triangles: existing or planned stations which
will be potentially available in the near future; squares: broadband stations; red: DPC; light blue: INGV;
orange: DST-UNITS and AMRA; yellow: OGS; purple; DIPTERIS-UNIGE; green: foreign stations). Left:
Current strong motion digital instruments having alternatively real-time, data-on-demand, or dial-up
connection and that are potentially available within a few minutes from earthquake occurrence. Middle: the
former strong motion stations shown in the left panel together with existing or planned stations which data
can be potentially available during the project; right: strong motions of the middle panel together with existing
real-time broadband stations.
The Rete Accelerometrica Nazionale (RAN) run by the “Dipartimento per la Protezione
Civile” can be considered the backbone, strong motion network in Italy including ~470
stations. Out of these stations and currently (January 2008), 210 stations are equipped
with digital data loggers, 130 digital stations will be installed by 2008 and about 130 are
analogic stations inherited from the ENEL original network. To these stations we must add
all those that have been installed by local organizations such as regions, provinces,
universities and research institutions.
In table 1, we provide a summary of the existing stations and of their modalities of data
transmission.
Network/Institution
RAN/DPC (existing digital)
RAN/DPC (existing analog)
RAN/DPC planned digital)
INGV - CNT
RAIS/INGV -MI
RAF/UniTS (existing digital)
OGS
AMRA
ProvTN
ProvBZ
Basilicata/UniBAS
RSNI/UniGE
SM
210
130
130
60
19
18
10
27
5
5
15
TOTALE
TOTALE QRT/RT/DOD
629
478
Transmission
QRT
QRT
DOD
DOD/RT
QRT/RT
QRT/RT
RT
RT
QRT
BB
Transmission
120
6
6
9
5
RT
DOD
RT
RT
RT
5
RT
13
RT
164
Table 4. Summary table of the strong motion (SM) and broadband (BB) networks operating in Italy. (DOD:
data on demand; RT: real time; QRT: quasi real time).
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Activity
For the full waveforms, the data will be acquired and distributed by setting up some
dedicated SeedLink servers at the INGV data center. This kind of data exchange is well
established, it has been in place for several years for the MedNet data and it is now about
to be extended to all the BB and SM data operated by the INGV “Centro Nazionale
Terremoti” sited in Rome which runs the Italian National Seismic Network, INSN (network
code IV).
The PGM data can be either determined locally at the station or they can be extracted
from the waveforms at the central acquisition center. In any event, the parametric data
need to be archived within databases which schema and tables will be shared among the
participants since the very beginning of the project in order to insure maximum
homogeneity among the ShakeMap® installations.
The source parameters (i.e., hypocenter, magnitude and rupturing fault for M>5.5
earthquakes) need also to be shared among the participants in order to insure
homogeneity of the shakemaps. For example, since earthquake location and magnitude
both depend on parametric data extracted from the recorded waveforms, either a phase
data exchange among the institutions or an authoritativeness scheme based on regional
and “solution quality indexes” will be implemented.
Since the data must be shared among the different RU it is thought the use of open
source, seismology dedicated software such as EIDS (Earthquake Information Distribution
System) or, analogously, message passing software such as or “spread” (http://
www.spread.org).
EIDS is in use, for example, at the California Integrated Seismic Network and it has been
designed to be a highly configurable system that can meet many message delivery needs
while providing redundancy. A prerequisite of EIDS is that the messages are XML
formatted. To this regard, it has been recently developed QuakeML as a standardized
XML for seismology. By pursuing this choice for data exchange, the project will exploit the
benefits deriving from the adoption of recognized standards (e.g., EIDS and QuakeML are
used within the I3 project NERIES for parametric data exchange).
Other alternatives include the use of open source, message passing software such as
“spread” which is currently in use within the SeisComP3 data acquisition software
developed at GFZ for parametric data exchange.
Overall, these approaches should insure that when an earthquake occurs the various
institutions recording the data can promptly make available their data and acquire those of
the other participating networks. To this purpose it will be basic the establishment of
SEEDlink servers for waveform data exchange between DPC and INGV. The same
SEEDlink protocol will be also adopted by the other shakemap processing centers if other
means for data exchange are not already in place. Transparent data exchange between
DPC and INGV will be also of great benefit to the activities of the concomitant project S4.
For parametric data sharing, implementation of EIDS (or analogous data exchange
procedure) will be tested and implemented through the course of the project. Regardless
of the means for data exchange, a database of event PGM parameters recorded by the
stations used in the generation of the shakemaps will be compiled and made available to
DPC.
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Objectives
The goal is to produce accurate and standardized shakemaps for earthquakes occurring in
Italy. This is a purely service task aimed toward providing the DPC and the public with
maps of the peak ground motion very rapidly.
Regardless of the seismic center producing the shakemaps, the goal is to homogenize the
procedures, input parameters and data so that the resulting maps will be identical and be
published within a dedicated web portal (see Task 6 below). To this end, it is necessary
that the basic “ingredients” for producing the shakemaps to be shared among the
participants. These ingredients include in addition to PGM data discussed in the Task 1,
the earthquake location and the magnitude, the use of identical GMPEs within a
regionalized model of Italy and the adoption of the same local site effects corrections.
For M5.5 and larger earthquakes, it is necessary that the different centers share also the
same procedures for determining the fault plane that ruptured during the earthquake.
These include moment tensor inversion and simplified extended fault inversion schemes.
Again, adoption of shared procedures (and data) will insure redundancy and interconsistency among the centers.
Overall, it is thought that this will help to establish authoritativeness of the DPC and of the
institutions involved.
The institutions involved in this task are the “Centro Nazionale Terremoti” of INGV; the
INGV Milano section, the “Dipartimento per lo Studio del Territorio e delle sue Risorse –
DIPTERIS” of the University of Genova; the “Dipartimento Scienze della Terra – DST” of
the University of Trieste; the “Centro Ricerche Sismologiche - Udine” of the “Istituto
Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale – OGS”; the “Dipartimento di
Scienze Fisiche” of University Federico II, Naples.
Background
INGV-CNT, DIPTERIS-UniGE, DST-UniTS and OGS have participated to the 2005-2007
DPC-S4 project and implemented the ShakeMap® package as one of the primary
activities within that project. The implementations have been made independently and
some of these institutions have started to publish the results on their web sites (e.g.,
http://earthquake.rm.ingv.it;
http://rtweb.units.it/shakemap/SHAKE/;
http://www.dipteris.unige.it/geofisica/).
In the INGV implementation, the data were provided mainly by the Italian National Seismic
Network which consisting primarily of BB stations and some co-located SM instruments
(~60). In practice, the manually revised earthquake locations determined by the INGV
seismic center are used as input to generate the shakemaps. The other inputs are the
ground motion regional prediction equations (GMPEs) determined by Malagnini and coauthors (2000ab) for M<5.5 and the Ambraseys et al. (1996) and Bommer et al. (2000) for
M>5.5, and the VS30 classification based on the 1:100,000 geology map of Italy compiled
and published by the “Servizio Geologico Nazionale” with the geologic units gathered into
five different classes A, B, C, D and E according to the EuroCode8 provisions, EC8, after
Draft 6 of January 2003 on the base of the ground acceleration response (Michelini et al.,
submitted for publication). At the other centers, there have been made similar
implementations using local GMPEs and VS30 classifications.
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The assumption of a point source is not valid for earthquakes with M>5.5 and fault
finiteness must be accounted. Fault finiteness is accounted within shakemap by
introducing the fault geometry (i.e., the points delimiting the fault). To this purpose, it is
important to determine first the fault mechanism and, second, the plane on which faulting
has occurred effectively. In the 2005-2007 DPC-S4 project, a time-domain moment tensor
automatic procedure (Dreger, 2002) has been implemented and fully automated
(Scognamiglio et al., submitted for publication; http://earthquake.rm.ingv.it/tdmt.php). After
this initial determination, a procedure has been tested to retrieve in simplified manner the
rupture on the finite fault using the approach of and Dreger and Kaverina (2000).
Activities
The task activity will therefore revolve around homogeneizing the installations and the
procedures. This includes the package ShakeMap® itself, the point source moment tensor
of Dreger (2002) and the simplified finite fault inversion Dreger and Kaverina (2002). By so
doing, it is expected to achieve maximum integration between the processing centers. In
this context and for the GMPEs of M<5.5 earthquakes, it is planned the refinement of the
regional attenuation relations. For larger earthquakes, it is planned at this stage and within
this service task, the implementation of the PGV GMPEs of Akkar and Bommer (2007). In
any event, the activities of this task will be strongly tied to those of Task 1, Task 3 and
Task 6.
Overall this task is central to the accomplishment of the project but it should be clear that
it cannot be fulfilled in all its forms (fast, homogenized, innovative, validated etc.) if input
from other tasks fails (especially from task 1, 3 for the validation and 6 for the publication).
As part of this task, there will be laid down the operative rules for optimal coordination
among the data centers and, at the end of the project, a comprehensive summary of
advantages and disadvantages of establishing such a distributed/redundant shakemap
processing system.
Task 3: Checking and validation of the shakemap results and associated analysis
Objectives
The aim of this task is to verify the accuracy and the robustness of the peak ground motion
maps obtained through ShakeMap® and to make comparisons with other methodologies
aimed toward evaluation of the amount of ground motion shaking and of the macroseismic
effects. This task also entails the determination (or the refinement) of GMPEs for M<5.5
earthquakes regionally, the adjournment of the general GMPEs for larger earthquakes and
the testing of different approaches for the site corrections.
This task is important because it attempts to answer some basic questions concerning the
robustness and and the accuracy of the shakemaps as function of the input data, the
adopted GMPEs and the role of the site effects. Specifically, the studies will address the
following main questions:
•
To what extent the addition of new data affects the resulting shakemaps ?
•
What is the robustness of the shakemaps when different GMPEs are used for the
same set of observations ?
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•
What is the level of variation of the shakemaps when different VS30 site
classifications are used ?
•
Can new approaches for the local site corrections reproduce more faithfully the
observed ground motion ?
•
Is it possible to make fair comparisons between the instrumentally derived
shakemaps and the “did you feel” (macroseismic intensity) reports in Italy ?
•
How do the instrumentally derived shakemaps compare to simplified methods
driven toward the calculation of intensities ?
All these are fundamental questions that will be addressed during the course of the
projects and that are expected to provide answers that will allow a more definitive
assessment of the results obtained.
Accuracy, robustness and comparisons
For what concerns the accuracy and robustness tests, it is envisaged the implementation
of the new version of the ShakeMap® package (3.3) that will include an analysis the
uncertainties of the resulting shakemaps. For accuracy we address the problem of
predicting the ground motion as faithful as possible to the true one and for robustness the
ability to replicate the same shakemaps independently from the data available. In practice,
we want to investigate the dependency of the shakemaps on the available data set and we
are planning the adoption of the jackknife technique to assess the reliability of the results.
In this test, different subsets of the original data set are randomly selected and the
statistics will determined on the distribution on the differences between predicted and
observed PGM values in the resulting maps. For the evaluation of the shakemap
robustness (i.e., the PGM predicted values) resulting from adoption of different GMPEs, for
each region the maps will be determined using the same selected data set and
comparisons between the different outcomes will be made. A similar strategy will be
employed to assess the reliability of the VS30 classification.
The comparisons with the other damage assessment approaches (KF and macroseismic
intensities) will be made more qualitatively since it may be difficult to transpose the results
of these analysis to a common intensity scale.
Site corrections
Within this task, we also plan to develop and test different approaches toward correction
for the site effects.
The first will follow a recent pilot study by Malagnini et al. (2007) in which they
demonstrated the usefulness of the information on the absolute site terms of a seismic
network in the everyday routine, from the fast determination of moment magnitudes, to
more sophisticated applications in the ShakeMap® package. The mentioned work will
allow the production of site terms for every station that will be thrown into the regression
procedure. Absolute site terms will represent averages computed on all available azimuth
and incidence angles, and may be used, within the ShakeMap® package, for the
deconvolution of the site effect from the recorded ground motion. A suitable grouping of
seismic stations into classes related to the geological/geophysical characteristics of the
instrumented sites (NEHRP classification, for example) would allow the definition of a
typical site response for each class. Moreover, since the peak ground motions are carried
by a dominant frequency that is, in turn, a function of magnitude and distance to the
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source, we will perform a feasibility study, for a limited number of stations, and determine a
new site classification that would no longer be a mere amplification (deamplification)
factor. The new classification will be tested for the site correction of the ShakeMap®
predictions where seismic stations are not available.
The second approach addresses directly the non-linearity of the soil response at
increasing levels of ground motion. Theory and experience show that non-linear soil
behaviour affects the natural frequency and the amplification factor of peak ground
acceleration, both decreasing with the seismic motion amplitude (e.g. Lanzo & Silvestri,
1999). In a broad sense, the whole transfer function of the subsoil is significantly nonlinear and dependent on the energy of the seismic radiation. A shakemap including site
effects should reliably account for soil non-linearity for strong-motion events.
Two simplified procedures will be tested and implemented:
• first-level shakemap (based on empirical scaling laws for PGA): the value of Vs30 will be
slightly corrected according to PGA and – more significantly – the value of the
stratigraphic amplification factor will be expressed as a function of the soil class (mapped
according to Vs30) and PGA (generated by the attenuation law). Simplified functions
such as those suggested by Ausilio et al. (2007) can be adopted to this purpose. This
approach is similar to that already within ShakeMap that is based on the NEHRP site
categories and applies the frequency - and amplitude-dependent amplification factors
determined by Borcherdt (1994). We expect this approach to refine correction terms for
the different soil classes currently in use.
• second-level shakemap (based on the simulated seismic radiation in terms of synthetic
seismograms): the site effects will be introduced in terms of non-linear transfer functions,
again compatible with the site classification but this time referred to integral parameters
of the seismic motion computed on the basis of either the time history (e.g. Arias
intensity) or the response spectrum (e.g. Housner intensity).
GMPEs
For earthquakes M<5.5, we will develop (or refine the existing) GMPEs for the different
regions. In the current regional classification of the GMPEs adopted within the
ShakeMap® installation at INGV, the Italian territory is subdivided into six different regions.
The aim of this study is to refine both spatially the regions (i.e., re-define the perimeter of
the regions) and the attenuation relations to obtain maximum coherency between
predictions and observations for the smaller earthquakes.
The project NGA (Next Generation of Attenuation relations) funded by PEER (Pacific
Earthquake Engineering Research Center; http://peer.berkeley.edu/) seeks the
determination of more sophisticated GMPEs that include various parameters of the
seismic source and of the propagation in addition to magnitude and distance (e.g.
Abrahamson and Silva, 1997). The aim is to obtain more accurate simulations of the PGM
and reduce the scatter between observations and predictions (Somerville et al., 1997).
Possible additional parameters are the directivity, faulting style, the fault-top depth,
accounting for the local site effects through Vs30 and some parameterization of the nonlinear soil response (Abrahamson and Silva, 2007). The use of more accurate GMPEs is
greatly needed within ShakeMap®. Introduction of a few additional parameters such as
those above, will allow to step from a purely cylindrical (or spherical) geometry of the
spatial variation of the PGM to geometries that replicate more faithfully the actual faulting
and propagation process occurring in earthquakes. In this project, we will develop and
implement predictive equations of the response spectrum that include directivity and
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faulting style (e.g. Somerville, 2003; Bommer et al., 2003; Baker, 2007; Spudich and
Chiou, 2006). During the first part of the project, we will assess the compatibility of the
different relationships introduced so far within the Italian context. In the second phase, we
will verify that the corrections to the standard cylindrical GMPEs are effective in reducing
the misfit between predictions and observations. These tests will be carried out also on the
data provided by K-net (http://www.k-net.bosai.go.jp/) which is now the richest data base
of strong ground motion. The presumption being that the cylindrical attenuation relations
are likely different in Japan when compared to those applicable in Italy but the source
corrections we introduce are theoretically independent of the geographical region.
Finally, since GMPE depend also on earthquake depth and in Italy earthquakes do occur
deep in the Calabrian Arc, we will make an attempt to determine attenuation relations
depending also on depth. However, we anticipate that, because a very small number of
earthquakes have been recorded at depths larger than say 30-40 km, determination of
meaningful relations will be hampered by the paucity of the data set. To partially
circumvent this problem, we will include data from other regions worldwide assuming that
propagation from Mantle depths is somewhat similar from region to region.
In summary, this task is multifaceted and involves i.) essential ingredients toward
generation of the shakemaps (GMPEs and site effects), ii.) results verification and iii.)
comparison with other methodologies that seek fast determination of ground motion
shaking. It is envisaged that through the project the relevant and sound information gained
from the activities in i.) and ii.) will be progressively transferred to Task 2.
This task involves only research and it is driven toward future improvements of the
shakemaps. In particular attention is put toward a more realistic definition of the finite
source for earthquakes larger than M5.5, and to the determination of 3D Green’s functions
on the regional scale and to local 1D Green’s functions locally. To the purpose of providing
more realistic shakemaps, we aim at integrating the ground motion parameters of interest
retrieved from real data with the results inferred from synthetic seismograms. This
approach should allow for the computation of shakemaps that take explicitly into account
the finite fault effects (e.g., source geometry, directivity, radiation pattern, etc.) on the
ground motion estimation that, in general, are not captured by empirical predictive
equations.
The starting points of this task are the rapid determination of the moment tensor, which is
of primary importance for getting some initial, robust estimation on the fault mechanism
(e.g., see the activities outlined in the Task 2 - size of the earthquake and the orientations
of the fault planes; Dreger, 2002), and the selection of the rupturing plane from inversion
for the finite fault using a linear approximation, that is, an under-parameterized fault model
that still is capable to provide information on some main features like active fault plane and
directivity (e.g., Dreger and Kaverina, 2000).
Green’s functions
We point out that the Green’s functions assumed for representing the wave propagation
should be as accurate as possible both for computing the moment tensor and for retrieving
the source characteristics from data inversion or for simulating synthetic seismograms.
Although Green’s function for 1D propagation media have been found effective for
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determining moment tensors for earthquakes at regional distances for Mw>3.5
(Scognamiglio et al., submitted for publication), TDMT determination for smaller events in
Italy has been found hampered by the complexity of the 3D velocity structure and by the
inability of 1D GFs to model the observed wavefield (Li et al., 2007). For this reason, some
efforts will be made to compute Green’s function for 3D propagation media although locally
(a few tens of km) 1D GFs will be most likely adopted.
For the 3D GFs part, the activity will focus on three steps: i) the creation of an high
resolution hexahedral discretization of Italy including a detailed topography which will
exploit the results of the tomographic investigations financed under DPC-S4 2005-07 and
the state-of-art knowledge of the main geological structures; ii) the calculation and the
storage of the Green's functions for seismic wave with periods as small as 5 seconds
based upon spectral elements method. If this part will be found successful we plan to
transfer the calculated 3D structure GFs to the Task 2 for the determination of the moment
tensors in nearly real-time. We note that compilation of a database of 3D Green's
Functions and the possibility to simulate the seismic wave propagation taking into account
a real 3D heterogeneous model of the whole Italy is a terrific opportunity for integrating
and applying the results acquired during the previously funded projects. Furthermore, the
products planned for this task will lead the Italian Seismology to be ready for the HPC era
and for the incoming full waveform tomography.
Finite fault
Information about the extended source properties are obviously needed for performing the
ground motion simulation associated to the earthquake rupture on the causative fault.
Several techniques for retrieving the rupture process on the fault from the inversion of
seismograms can be found in the literature, from the simplest approaches, based on the
linearization of the model, to more sophisticated methods that perform non-linear
inversions of data. Information at different scales of complexity can be obtained,
depending on the technique adopted.
We will use different inversion methods for obtaining information about the source and we
will follow the pragmatic approach of increasing progressively the sophistication of the
method to attain more detail. The first and most simple approach consists of identifying the
dominant rupture direction on the fault. This approach allows for the use of empirical
equations that account approximately for source directivity (e.g., Sommerville et al., 1997).
More detailed information (i.e., the final slip distribution on the fault, the rupture velocity
and the rise time) will be then obtained through the method by Dreger and Kaverina (2000)
using a more refined fault discretization. Finally, more advanced techniques (e.g.,
Piatanesi et al. 1999) will provide a complete and heterogeneous characterization of the
source kinematics.
Once the extended source parameters have been determined, it becomes possible to
determine synthetic seismograms at the grid of phantom points adopted for the
shakemaps. To this end, many techniques are available and we are planning to perform
the simulations at two levels.
At the first level, we will use a simplified technique (DSM technique, Pacor et al., 2005)
able to provide S-waves high frequency synthetics. At the second level we will makes use
of full-wave broad-band approaches (i.e., HIC technique, Gallovic and Brokesova, 2007;
COMPSYN technique, Spudich and Xu, 2003).
The DSM approach provides only the S-wave field, it is a fast simulation technique that
account for the finite source effects like the directivity. Since, the S-wave field can be
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considered dominant in amplitude in the near fault distances range, use of this technique
can be effective as simulation tool when evaluating high frequency ground motion
parameters like PGA and spectral acceleration at short periods.
In contrast, when distances are larger than 2-3 times the fault length, the DSM technique
becomes inadequate because some PGM parameters like PGV and spectral acceleration
at longer periods become important in the computation of the shakemaps at larger
distances. For this we plan to test the second level of simulation techniques to generate
broad-band synthetics.
In summary, the activities of this task are two-folded. On one side, we will make an attempt
to develop 3D GFs for longer period waves that will be used for point source moment
tensor inversion. On the other, we plan to use more sophisticated fault inversion
algorithms to improve the accuracy of the finite fault determinations. In this second activity
locally calibrated 1D GFs will be used. It is expected that more accurate finite fault
characterizations will provide us with the detail necessary to apply broadband forward
modeling techniques to determine realistic peak ground motion parameters (e.g., that
account for extended source effects). In so doing, we will aim at identifying the best scale
of the source complexity useful for the shakemap computation as the best compromise
between the results obtained (in terms of ground motion shaking parameters) and the
time-computing needed for the inversion and simulation. The latter simulations will be
made at rock sites and the site corrections will be introduced afterward following the
ShakeMap standard approach based on VS30.
Task 5: Fast assessment of source parameters and tsunamigenic potential for M>6 in the
Mediterreanenean region
Objective of the project is to detect large earthquakes in the Euro Mediterranean Region,
and to discriminate between tsunamigenic and non-tsunamigenic earthquakes.
Epicentral location, focal depth, magnitude and source mechanism are the required
earthquake parameters to discriminate between tsunamigenic and non tsunamigenic
earthquake.
In the recent past the MedNet network has contributed to create a robust connection
between the seismological network in the region that has lead to create the so called
VEBSN (Virtual European Broadband Network) this will be the starting point for creating a
virtual network dedicated to the detection of relevant earthquakes and to the estimate of
the source parameters with rapid and unmanned techniques.
SeisComP3 and Earthworm will be the data collectors for seismic data coming to several
networks around the Mediterranean basin and different techniques as “autoloc” and
NonLinLoc will be used for locating earthquakes. The use of different systems working in
parallel will also allow to check and validate the most reliable techniques, in term of
location accuracy and elapsed time. With the same approach we will explore different
Magnitude estimate techniques as Mwp, Mwpd and dominant period, following the
experience that comes from different studies of the recent past for the SAFER and other
projects.
In the framework of the previous DPC–S4 2005-07 project we established an automatic
procedure to quickly estimate the source mechanism of relevant earthquakes in Italy by
using the TDMT (Time Domain Moment Tensor) technique. This approach will be
extended to the whole Euro Mediterranean region and efforts will be made to automate
also the regional CMT (Centroid Moment Tensor).
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Because information about the magnitude and location may be not sufficient to assess
whether an earthquake can or cannot generate a potentially dangerous tsunami, numerical
forward modeling of tsunami propagation is needed. For this reason, we propose to
simulate the generation and propagation of tsunamis for many sites which tectonic setting
(from geology and fault mechanisms) provides evidence for being place of causative
tsunamis. This will allow to build a database of synthetic pre-computed models. In the case
of a seismic event, after having determined the location and magnitude of the occurring
earthquake, it will be possible to query the database for getting the simulations
corresponding to the models closest, both in terms of location and magnitude, to the real
case. These models are then interpolated in order to provide an estimation of the wave
height for the real source. Thus, this approach will not deal with the detailed modeling of
the inundation scenarios but it will only provide first order estimates of the incoming
tsunami wave. This approach is similar to that implemented by the Japan Meteorological
Agency that is responsible of the tsunami warning system for the Japanese coasts and
whose data-base includes about 100,000 synthetic models, and is also shared by the
Regional Tsunamis Watch Centres (RTWC) as well as of the National Tsunami Warning
Centres (NTWC), that are the fundamental elements of the NEAM Tsunami Warning
System currently under development.
The starting point for building the data-base consists in the definition of the characteristics
of the earthquakes potentially tsunamigenic, in terms of position, geometrical parameters,
and expected magnitude. Moreover, the bathymetry of the sea area of interest has to be
known. When these information are available, it is possible to solve numerically the non
linear shallow-water equations and to computing the tsunami wave height for all the
computational domain, including the coasts. We plan to perform simulations at the
Mediterranean scale accounting for the all the known seismic sources having a
tsunamigenic potential. In the previous DPC-S2 2005-2007 project some seismogenic
structures in the Mediterranean area were investigated for evaluating the effects of the
potential tsunamis associated with them on the Italian coasts. We believe that these
results could suggest some insights about the main sources to be considered and will use
as starting point for building the database. Analogously it is planned the evaluation of
tsunami height in a simplified manner by describing the latter into classes according to
wave height.
Since a tsunami warning needs to be effectively evaluated and possibly confirmed with
observed data, it is proposed to activate a data exchange between the INGV seismic
center and the “Servizio Mareografico” of APAT for the data of the “Rete Mareografica
Nazionale” (see http://www.idromare.com). Availability of the latter data is expected to
spring research on fast determination of tsunami occurrence from the same data. In fact,
detection of tsunami signature in sea level records is a very important part toward their
validation.
Task 6: Web interface and publication
Web applications have become progressively more and more important in recent years. In
addition to publication of the results, they provide tools for visualization and interaction with
dedicated and distributed software. In this project, we will exploit these capabilities to easy
the user interaction with the software (e.g., source inversion, ShakeMap®, point source
moment tensor, ….) and to publish the results.
For the user interaction, we plan to develop web applications that will allow the users to
interact with programs such as the moment tensor inversion code or the ShakeMap®
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package remotely and in a simplified manner. The goal is to put the operator in the
position to carry out the revision of the results without being physically at the seismic
center and by just using a lap-top connected to internet. A prototype of this type of
application has been developed already within the DPC-S4 2005-07 project for the
moment tensor. We plan to extend this web application to the other basic software on
which the project relies.
For publication of the results, the objective is to publish on an web portal (the iisn.it
domain, Italian Integrated Seismic Network, has been already reserved) the standard
shakemaps. This domain has been already reserved and publication is expected to
replicate to great extent what is published on the cisn.org web site in California. The
published pages will be filled essentially with the results of the standard analysis
performed in the Task 2 of the project.
We plan installation of the software package “ShakeCast” at DPC and at the processing
centers, which is an important add-on plug-in to ShakeMap which allows critical users to
receive automatic notifications within minutes of the earthquake indicating the level of
shaking
and
the
likelihood
of
impact
to
their
own
facilities
(see
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/resources/software/shakecast/)
4.3 Activity (definition of the task activity)
The activity is organized in work-packages (WP) for each task. The task leader in
parenthesis coordinates the activities.
Task 1 - Data availability, distribution and archiving (Salvatore Mazza, INGV)
WP1.1 – Strong motion data acquisition and archiving of waveforms and parametric data
for Italian stations
WP1.2 – Broadband data acquisition and archiving of waveforms and parametric data for
Italian stations
WP1.3 – Acquisition and archiving of broadband waveforms from Mediterranean region
stations
WP1.4 – Data exchange procedures
Task 2 - Shakemap service (Daniele Spallarossa, UNIGE)
WP2.1 – Homogenization of ShakeMap®: software installation and data feeding
WP2.2 – Homogenization of ShakeMap®: GMPEs and local site effects parameters
Task 3 - Checking and validation of the shakemap results and associated analysis (Luca
Malagnini, INGV)
WP3.1 – Assessing the robustness and accuracy of the shakemaps: data, GMPEs and
site effects
WP3.2 – Determination of site corrections
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WP3.3 – Comparison of shakemap intensities with other rapid methods for damage
assessment.
WP3.4 – Determination of GMPEs.
Task 4 - Seismic source estimates and associated effects (Alessio Piatanesi, INGV)
WP4.1 – Green’s functions computation and moment tensor determination
WP4.2 – Finite fault characteristics from the inversion of seismograms
WP4.3 – Simulation of synthetic seismograms at the bedrock
Task 5 - Fast assessment of source parameters and tsunaimigenic potential for M>6 in the
Mediterreanenean region (Marco Olivieri, INGV
WP5.1 – Implementation of data acquisition system (SeisComP3, Earthworm)
WP5.2 – Implementation of robust earthquake location methods and of rapid magnitude
schemes at regional scale.
WP5.3 – Rapid determination of point source moment tensor and extended source models
(in collaboration with WP4.2)
WP5.4 – Forward numerical modeling of tsunami wave height for different geographical
sources and creation of the associated database.
WP5.5 – Real-time mareograph data exchange between INGV and APAT
Task 6 - Web interface and publication (Valentino Lauciani, INGV & Claudio Satriano,
DSF-UNINA-AMRA)
WP6.1 – Design and implementation of web interfaces to facilitate user interaction with
software for source inversion, ShakeMap® and for verification of data quality
WP6.2 – Design and development of the Italian Integrated Seismic Network web site
(http://www.iisn.it )
WP6.3 – Implementation of the ShakeCast software.
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5. Main references
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Clinton JF, E. Hauksson, and K. Solanki (2006), An evaluation of the SCSN moment
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Dreger, D. and A. Kaverina (2000), Seismic remote sensing for the earthquake source
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Emolo, A. and A. Zollo (2005), Kinematic source parameters for the 1989 Loma Prieta
earthquake from the nonlinear inversion of accellerograms, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am.,
95(3), 981-994, doi:10.1785/0120030193.
Fukuyama E., and D. S. Dreger (2000), Performance test of an automated moment tensor
determination system for the future “Tokay” earthquake, Earth Planets Space, 52, 383392.
Gallovič, F. and J., Brokešová (2007), Hybrid k-squared Source Model for Strong Ground
Motion Simulations: Introduction. Phys. Earth Planet. Interiors 160, 34-50.
George, D. L. and R. J. LeVeque (2006), Finite volume methods and adaptative
refinement for global tsunami propagation and local inundation, Sci. Tsu. Haz.,25(5),
319-328.
Hanka, W. A. Heinloo and K-H. Jaeckel (2000), Networked Seismographs: GEOFON
Real-time
Data
Distribution.
ORFEUS
newsletter:
http://orfeus.knmi.nl/newsletter/vol2no3/geofon.html
Hara, T. (2007a), Measurement of the duration of high-frequency energy radiation and its
application to determination of the magnitudes of large shallow earthquakes, Earth
Planets Space, 59, 227–231.
Hara, T. (2007b), Magnitude determination using duration of high frequency energy
radiation and displacement amplitude: application to tsunami earthquakes, Earth
Planets Space, 59, 56--565.
Kawakatsu H. (1998), On the real-time monitoring of the long-period seismic wavefield,
Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst., 73, 267-274.
Kubo A, Fukuyama E, Kawai H., and K. Nonomura (2002), NIED seismic moment tensor
catalogue for regional. earthquakes around Japan: quality test and application,
Tectonophysics, 356, 23-48.
Li, H. Michelini, A. Zhu, L. Bernardi, F. and M. Spada (2007), Crustal velocity structure in
Italy from analysis of regional seismic waveforms, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 97(6):20242039.
Lin, K-W, Wald, D. J., Worden, B., and A. F. Shakal (2005), Quantifying CISN ShakeMap
uncertainty,
SMIP05
Seminar
Proceedings,
available
at
http://
www.consrv.ca.gov/cgs/smip/docs/ seminar/SMIP05/Documents/Paper3_Lin.pdf
Liu, P., and R. Archuleta (2004), A new nonlinear finite fault inversion with threedimensional Green’s functions: application to the 1989 Loma Prieta, California,
earthquake, J.Geophys. Res., 109, B02318, doi:10.1029/2003JB002625.
Lomax, A. and A. Michelini (2007), Mwpd: Rapid Determination of Earthquake Magnitude
and Tsunamigenic Potential from P Waveforms. AGU, December 2007, San Francisco,
Eos
Trans.
AGU,
88(52),
Fall
Meet.
Suppl.,
Abstract
S53A-1034.
(http://www.alomax.net/posters/duration-amplitude)
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Lomax, A. and A. Michelini (2008), Mwpd: A Duration-Amplitude Procedure for Rapid
Determination of Earthquake Magnitude and Tsunamigenic Potential from P
Waveforms,
Geophys.
J.
Int.,
NN,
nnn-nnn.
(in
review)
(http://www.alomax.net/posters/duration-amplitude;
http://www.alomax.net/projects/duration-amplitude/Duration-Amplitude_v1.0.pdf)
Lomax, A., A. Michelini and A. Piatanesi (2007), An energy-duration procedure for rapid
determination of earthquake magnitude and tsunamigenic potential, Geophys. J. Int.,
170, 1195–1209, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03469.x
Mader, C.L. (2004), Numerical Modelling of Water Waves, CRC Press, LLC.
Malagnini, L., and R. B. Herrmann (2000a), Ground motion scaling in the region of the
Umbria-Marche earthquake of 1997, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 90, 1041–1051.
Malagnini, L., R. B. Herrmann, and M. Di Bona (2000b), Ground motion scaling in the
Apennines (Italy), Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 90, 1062–1081.
Malagnini, L., Mayeda, K., Akinci, A. & Bragato, P.L. 2004, "Estimating absolute site
effects", Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, vol. 94, no. 4, pp. 1343-1352.
Malagnini, L., K. Mayeda, R. Uhrhammer, A. Akinci, and R.B. Herrmann (2007), A regional
ground motion excitation/attenuation model for the San Francisco region, Bull. Seism.
Soc. Am., 97; no. 3; p. 843-862.
Michelini, A., Faenza, L., Quintiliani, M., Lauciani, V., Olivieri, M., L. Malagnini.
ShakeMap® implementation in Italy, submitted for publication.
Motazedian, D., and G. M. Atkinson (2005), Stochastic finite-fault modeling based on a
dynamic corner frequency, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 95, 995–1010.
Okal, E. A., and J. Talandier (1989), Mm: a variable period mantle magnitude, J. Geophys.
Res. 94, 4169–4193.
Pacor, F., Cultrera, G., Mendez, A. and M.Cocco (2005), Finite Fault Modeling of Strong
Ground Motions Using a Hybrid Deterministic–Stochastic Approach. Bull. Seism. Soc.
Am. 95, No. 1, 225-240.
Pettenati, F., and L. Sirovich (2003), Tests of source-parameter inversion of the U.S.
Geological Survey intensities of the Whittier Narrows, 1987 Earthquake, Bull. Seism.
Soc. Am. 93, 1, 47-60.
Piatanesi, A., Tinti, S. and E. Bortolucci (1999). Finite-element simulations of the 28
December 1908 Messina Straits (southern Italy) Tsunami, Physics and Chemistry of
the Earth. Part A: Solid Earth and Geodesy, vol.24, no.2, pp.145-150
Piatanesi, A., A. Cirella, P. Spudich and M. Cocco (2007), A global search inversion for
earthquake kinematic rupture history : application to the 2000 Western Tottori, Japan
earthquake J. Geophys. Res. Vol. 112, No. B7, B07314, doi:10.1029/2006JB004821.
Power, M., B. Chiou, N. Abrahamson, and C. Roblee (2006), The Next Generation of
Ground Motion Attenuation Modelsq (NGA) project: An overview. In Proceedings,
Eighth National Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Paper No. 2022.
Sabetta, F., and Pugliese, A. (1987), Attenuation of peak horizontal acceleration and
velocity from italian strong-motion records, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of
America, 77, 1491-1513.
Sabetta, F., and A. Pugliese (1996), Estimation of response spectra and simulation of
nonstationary earthquake ground motion, Bull. Seism.Soc. Am. 86, 337–352.
Satake,K. (2002), Tsunamis, In: Lee, W.H.K.,Kanamori, H., Jennings, P.C., Kisslinger, C.
(Eds.), International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology. Academic
Press, San Diego, pp. 437–451.
Saul, J. and P. Bormann (2007), Rapid estimation of earthquake size using the broadband
P-wave magnitude mB. AGU, December 2007, San Francisco, Eos Trans. AGU,
88(52), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract S53A-1035.
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Sirovich, L. (1996), A simple algorithm for tracing out synthetic isoseismals, Bull. Seism.
Soc. Am. 86, 1019-1027.
Sirovich, L., and F. Pettenati (2004), Source inversion of intensity patterns of earthquakes:
a destructive shock in 1936 in northeast Italy, J. Geophys. Res., 109, B10309,
doi:10.1029/2003JB002919, pp. 16.
Sirovich, L., and F. Pettenati. Validation of a Kinematic and Parametric Approach to
Calculating Intensity Scenarios, submitted for publication.
Somerville, P. G. (2003), Magnitude scaling of the near fault rupture directivity pulse, Phys.
Earth Planet. Inter. 137, 201-212.
Somerville, P. G.; Smith, N.; Graves, R. & Abrahamson, N. A. (1997), Modification of
empirical strong ground motion attenuation relations to include the amplitude and
duration effects of rupture directivity, Seism. Res. Lett. 68, 199-212.
Spudich, P. and L. Xu (2003), Software for calculating earthquake ground motions from
finite faults in vertically varying media, in International Handbook of Earthquake and
Engineering Seismology, Academic Press.
Spudich, P. & Chiou, B.S.J. (2006), Directivity in preliminary NGA residuals, Final Project
Report for PEER Lifelines Program, Task 1M01 Subagreement SA5146-15811, 37
pp.
Thio H.K., Kanamori H. (1995), Moment-tensor inversions for local earthquakes using
surface-waves recorded at terrascope, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 85 (4), 1021-1038
Tsuboi, S., K. Abe, K. Takano, and Y. Yamanaka (1995), Rapid determination of Mw from
broadband P waveforms, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 85, 606-613.
Vassiliou, M. S., and H. Kanamori (1982), The energy release in earthquakes, Bull. Seism.
Soc. Am., 72, 371–387.
Wald, D. J., Quitoriano, V., Heaton, T. H., Kanamori, H., Scrivner, C. W., and Worden, C.
B. (1999a), TriNet ``ShakeMaps'': Rapid Generation of Peak Ground Motion and
Intensity Maps for Earthquakes in Southern California Earthquake Spectra 15, 537.
Wald, D. J., V. Quitoriano, T. H. Heaton, H. Kanamori (1999b), Relationship between Peak
Ground Acceleration, Peak Ground Velocity, and Modified Mercalli Intensity for
Earthquakes in California, Earthquake Spectra, Vol. 15, No. 3, 557-564.
Wald, D. J., and T. I. Allen (2007), Topographic slope as a proxy for seismic site conditions
and amplification, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 97: 1379 – 1395.
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6. Deliverables
Each task leader coordinates the activities and is responsible for the deliverables of the
RUs participating to his task. In the following there are listed only the general activities of
the project whereas the specific ones are listed within the forms of the individual RUs.
However, most of the deliverables listed below incorporate those listed by the single RUs.
Note that the deliverables of the service tasks are for the most in the form of
implementation of software and procedures which will be, for example, shared with the
various RUs as they are developed and tested. However, they will be reported at the end
of the phase 1 and at project completion. For the research tasks, the reports will be made
after phase 1 and at project conclusion.
Given the specificity of the activities of the project, the material provided to the
international referees at the six-months project evaluations will be also provided to DPC.
Clearly the project is very ambitious since it aims to create an integrated system of
distributed processing centers for rapid shakemap delivery (web publication). It is felt that
accomplishment of such a system would be of great benefit to both institutions (DPC,
participating institutions with their processing centers, ....) and the general public.
However, it should be remarked that although the technical part (data exchange,
shakemap package, source mechanism software, web tools) exist and in many instances
have been already implemented, the project can however suffer of other more political
issues independent from the institutions participating to the project (e.g., policies for data
exchange, solution authoritativeness) which in general can add “viscosity” toward
accomplishment of the project.
Nevertheless it is important to provide a minimal threshold to decide whether the project
has been successful. It is felt that the project can be considered successful if it will be able
to provide i.) standard, homogeneous and results-verified implementations of shakemap
at the different data centers, ii.) rapid and transparent data sharing among the participants
and iii.) consensual results publication on the iisn.it portal. This implies accomplishment of
the tasks 1, 2, 3 (for the part limited to the results appraisal), 5 and 6. These are all mainly
service tasks designed to step forward to the establishment of the Italian system for
shakemaps and alert in the Mediterranean.
More specifically it is important to note the very relevant role that DPC has in the project as
strong motion data provider in the context of the service to be offered (rapid evaluation of
the shakemaps, see project title). The expectation is that the data availability and
exchange object of task 1 will greatly benefit of the DPC involvement and committment.
Finally a few words on task 5. This task is almost entirely autonomous from the others as
it deals of earthquake tsunamigenic potential in the Mediterranean sea. Since the
December 26, 2004 Great Sumatra earthquake the hazard deriving from large
earthquakes and associated tsunamis has stepped up in the priorities of countries
potentially exposed and in this project the success of the task 5 depends on the realization
of all its WPs.
Task 1 - Data availability, distribution and archiving (Salvatore Mazza, INGV)
(task progress report at the end of 1st phase and a final report at project completion)
1.1. Report on the establishment of a SEEDlink server and its mode of operation onto
which the strong motion and broadband data are made available (DPC can obtain
INGV strong motion data through this server).
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1.2. Report describing the database of event PGM parameters of the stations used in
the generation of the shakemaps (PGM data within the DB can used for GMPEs
calibration purposes)
1.3. Report on the implementation of EIDS (or analogous data exchange procedures)
and its mode of operation for parametric quasi real time data exchange (DPC can
obtain PGM data in quasi real-time).
1.4. Summary report at project completion describing the accomplishments of the task.
Task 2 - Shakemap service (Daniele Spallarossa, UNIGE)
(Task progress report at the end of 1st phase and a final report at project completion)
2.1. Assemblage of standard ShakeMap® installation disk to be installed at the different
seismic centers. (activity within the 1st phase)
2.2. Development and implementation of
GMPEs.
ShakeMap® Perl modules for regional
2.3. Summary report at project completion describing the accomplishments of the task
(i.e., homogenization accomplished among the different shakemap processing
centers).
Task 3 - Checking and validation of the shakemap results and associated analysis (Luca
Malagnini, INGV)
3.1. Report on the robustness and accuracy of the resulting shakemaps (relevant to
DPC to assess the quality and the reliability of the products)
(activity planned in the second half of phase 1 and the first half of phase 2)
3.2. Report on the research on site corrections (provides DPC with a perspective on the
possible improvements to be introduced within the shakemap package to account
for site corrections)
3.3. Report on the comparison between shakemap intensities and those determined
using other methodologies (provides DPC with a perspective on the differences
between different methodologies).
3.4. Report on the determination of regional GMPEs (provides DPC with a state-of-theart perspective on the GMPEs applicable to the Italian area).
Task 4 - Seismic source estimates and associated effects (Alessio Piatanesi, INGV)
4.1. Report on the Green’s functions computation for 3D heteregeneous velocity
structures and for the 1D regionalized models and their application to moment
tensor determination (provides DPC with a state-of-the-art perspective on the GFs
applicable to the Italian area).
4.2. Report on the finite fault characteristics from the inversion of seismograms
(provides DPC with outlook on the different techniques and their range of
applicability in the definition of the finite fault to the purpose of generating
shakemaps)
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4.3. Report on the simulation of synthetic seismograms at bedrock (provides DPC with
outlook on the chance of improving the determination of the strong motion at
bedrock by relying on the calculation of synthetic seismograms rather than GMPEs)
Task 5 - Fast assessment of source parameters and tsunaimigenic potential for M>6 in the
Mediterranean region (Marco Olivieri, INGV
5.1. Report on the data acquisition and processing systems implemented.
5.2. Report on the accuracy and robustness of the rapid location methods, magnitude
estimators, source moment tensors and finite fault determination for earthquakes
occurring at sea within the Mediterranean (provides DPC with an assessment of the
rapid source characteristics implemented to the purpose of tsunami potential
occurrence)
5.3. Forward numerical modeling of tsunami wave height for different geographical
sources and creation of the associated database
5.4. Report on the procedures for real-time data exchange of mareograph data between
INGV and APAT (DPC will benefit eventually of this data exchange in the sense that
it will obtain actual measurements of recorded sea level changes)
5.5. Report at project completion summarizing the accomplishments of the task.
Task 6 - Web interface and publication (Valentino Lauciani, INGV & Claudio Satriano,
DSF-UNINA-AMRA)
6.1. Report on the web interfaces developed to facilitate user interaction with software
for source inversion, ShakeMap® and for verification of data quality (provides DPC
with a close perspective of the procedures in use for moment tensor, extended fault
and shakemap review)
6.2. Web portal project of the Italian Integrated Seismic Network web site
(http://www.iisn.it) developed in coordination with DPC
6.3. Web portal of the Italian Integrated Seismic Network web site (http://www.iisn.it)
(DPC will benefit of this public access web portal as it will show the coordinating
efforts made by DPC while relying on the expertise of the scientific institutions
involved)
6.4. Implementation of the ShakeCast software at DPC and at the processing centers.
(Relevant to DPC in that this software receives as input the shakemap results and
determines to first order the level of shaking sustained by pre-defined sites such as
bridges, pipelines, hospitals, ... at risk.)
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7. Workplanning
I
Phase
Semester
Task 1: Data availability, distribution and archiving
(WP1.1, Strong motion data acquisition and archiving of
waveforms and parametric data for Italian stations)
RU INGV-RM
RU INGV-MI
RU DST-UNITS
RU OGS
RU DSF-UNINA
(WP1.2, Broadband data acquisition and archiving of
waveforms and parametric data for Italian stations)
RU INGV-RM
RU DST-UNITS
RU OGS
RU DIPTERIS-UNIGE
RU DSF-UNINA
(WP1.3, Acquisition and archiving of broadband waveforms
from Mediterranean region stations)
RU INGV-RM
(WP1.4, Data exchange procedures)
RU INGV-RM
RU INGV-MI
RU DST-UNITS
RU OGS
RU DIPTERIS-UNIGE
RU DSF-UNINA
(WP2.1, Homogenization of ShakeMap®: software installation
and data feeding)
RU INGV-RM
RU INGV-MI
RU DST-UNITS
RU OGS
RU DIPTERIS-UNIGE
RU DSF-UNINA
(WP2.2 Homogenization of ShakeMap®: GMPEs and local
site effects parameters)
RU INGV-RM
RU INGV-MI
RU DST-UNITS
RU OGS
RU DIPTERIS-UNIGE
RU DSF-UNINA
Task 3: Checking and validation of the shakemap results
and associated analysis
(WP3.1 Assessing the robustness of the shakemaps: data,
GMPEs and site effects)
RU INGV-RM
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II
1
2
1
2
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
-
-
X
X
X
X
-
X
X
RU DST-UNITS
RU OGS
RU DIPTERIS-UNIGE
RU DSF-UNINA
(WP3.2 Determination of site corrections)
RU INGV-RM
RU DIGA-UNINA
RU DIPTERIS-UNIGE
(WP3.3 Comparison of shakemap intensities with other rapid
methods for damage asseessment.)
RU INGV-RM
RU OGS
(WP3.4 Determination of GMPEs)
RU INGV-RM
RU INGV-MI
RU DST-UNITS
RU OGS
RU DIPTERIS-UNIGE
RU DSF-UNINA
(WP4.1 Green’s functions computation and moment tensor
determination)
RU INGV-RM
RU INGV-MI
RU OGS
RU DIPTERIS-UNIGE
RU DSF-UNINA
(WP4.2 Finite fault characteristics from the inversion of
seismograms)
RU INGV-RM
RU OGS
RU DSF-UNINA
(WP4.3 Simulation of synthetic seismograms at bedrock)
RU INGV-RM
RU INGV-MI
RU DSF-UNINA
RU DST-UNITS
Task 5: Fast assessment of source parameters and
tsunaimigenic potential for M>6 in the Mediterreanenean
region
(WP5.1 Implementation of data acquisition system
(SeisComP3, Earthworm))
RU INGV-RM
region
(WP5.2 – Implementation of robust earthquake location
methods and of rapid magnitude schemes at regional scale))
RU INGV-RM
region
(WP5.3 – Rapid determination of point source moment tensor
118/191
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
and extended source models (in collaboration with WP4.2)
RU INGV-RM
RU INGV-BO
region
(WP5.4 – Forward numerical modeling of tsunami wave height
for different geographical sources and creation of the
associated database)
RU INGV-RM
RU DPG-UNIBO
region
(WP5.5 – Real-time mareograph data exchange between INGV
and APAT)
RU INGV-RM
RU APAT
(WP6.1 – Design and implementation of web interfaces to
facilitate user interaction with software for source inversion,
ShakeMap® and for verification of data quality)
RU INGV-RM
(WP6.2 – Design and development of the Italian Integrated
Seismic Network web site (http://www.iisn.it ))
RU INGV-RM
RU INGV-MI
RU DST-UNITS
RU OGS
RU DIPTERIS-UNIGE
RU DSF-UNINA
(WP6.3 – Implementation of the ShakeCast software))
RU INGV-RM
RU INGV-MI
RU DST-UNITS
RU OGS
RU DIPTERIS-UNIGE
RU DSF-UNINA
119/191
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
8. Personnel
Task/RU
1,2,3,4,5,
6/INGVRM
1,2,3,4,6/
DSFUNINA
5/INGVBO
1,2,3,4,6/I
NGV-MI
1,2,3,4,6/
DSTUNITS
1,2,3,4,6/
OGS
3/DIGAUNINA
RU responsible
(surname and name)
Institution
Months/Person
Months/Person
I phase
II phase
I phase
II phase
INGV (CNT,RM1)
36
36
2
2
Emolo Antonio
Università Federico II,
Napoli
30
30
2
2
Pondrelli Silvia
INGV (BO)
10
10
Augliera Paolo
INGV (MI)
22
22
Costa Giovanni
Università di Trieste
14
14
OGS (TS-UD)
16
15
Silvestri Francesco
Università Federico II,
Napoli
11
10
1
1
Michelini Alberto
Saraò Angela
Spallarossa Daniele
Università di Genova
29
29
5/DFGUNIBO
Tinti Stefano
Università di Bologna
7
7
5/APAT
Bencivenga Mauro
APAT
8
8
1,2,3,4,6
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9. Financial plan (600,000.00 €)
9.1. I phase
Type of expenditure
Importo
previsto
a
(total)
(Personnel)
etc.)
professionali
(Maintenance and assistance of
services, etc.)
uso
7) Spese indirette (≤10% del totale delle
precedenti voci)
(Overheads)
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
(DPC contribution)
Co-finanziamento
c = a-b
(co-funded)
20009
0,00
75800
0,00
0
140990
0,00
1000
0,00
63950
0,00
28546
0,00
Total
0,00
330295
0,00
Type of expenditure
Importo
previsto
a
(total)
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
(DPC contribution)
Co-finanziamento
c = a-b
(co-funded)
17191
0,00
87409
0,00
9.2. II phase
(Personnel)
etc.)
professionali
services, etc.)
uso
precedenti voci)
(Overheads)
Total
0
0,00
121/191
120790
0,00
1000
0,00
19260
0,00
24055
0,00
269705
0,00
9.3. Total
Type of expenditure
Importo
previsto
a
(total)
(Personnel)
etc.)
professionali
services, etc.)
uso
precedenti voci)
(Overheads)
Total
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
(DPC contribution)
Cofinanziamento
c = a-b
(co-funded)
37200
0,00
163209
0,00
0
0,00
122/191
261780
0,00
2000
0,00
83210
0,00
52601
0,00
600000
0,00
Project S4
Italian Strong Motion Database
Progetto S4
Banca Dati Accelerometrica Italiana
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124/191
Progetto S4
Titolo: BANCA DATI ACCELEROMETRICA ITALIANA
Coordinatori
Francesca Pacor, Primo ricercatore, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia –
Sezione di Milano-Pavia, Via Bassini, 15, 20133 Milano, Email: [email protected];
Tel: +39 02 23699 279; Cell: + 39 348 3030989
Roberto Paolucci, Professore associato – Dipartimento di Ingegneria Strutturale,
Politecnico di Milano, P.za Leonardo da Vinci, 32, 20133 Milano,
Email:
[email protected]; Tel: +39 02 23994353; Cell: +39 320 0951471
Riassunto
Il Progetto S4 si pone come obiettivo l’aggiornamento e il miglioramento della banca dati
accelerometrica italiana (ITACA, http://itaca.mi.ingv.it), che attualmente raccoglie i dati
registrati fino al 2005 dalla Rete Accelerometrica Nazionale (RAN). Questo progetto
costituisce il proseguimento del Progetto S6 - Banca Dati Accelerometrica, svolto nel
corso della precedente convenzione DPC-INGV (2004-2006).
Il progetto si svilupperà attraverso due linee principali: la prima, a carattere applicativo e di
diretto interesse per DPC, relativa all’implementazione e pubblicazione della banca dati; la
seconda, basata principalmente su attività di ricerca scientifica, relativa alla
caratterizzazione e qualificazione dei dati e delle stazioni accelerometriche.
Al fine di rendere ITACA un riferimento a livello internazionale per la diffusione e
consultazione dei dati accelerometri italiani sono previste le seguenti attività:
− Raccolta e processamento dei dati accelerometrici registrati dalla RAN fino al 2007 e di
quelli provenienti da reti locali, gestite da altri enti;
− Realizzazione e completamento di schede monografiche relative alla caratterizzazione
geologica-geotecnica di tutte le stazioni della RAN attualmente installate;
− Incremento del numero di stazioni accelerometriche per cui siano disponibili profili di
velocità delle onde S, ottenuti attraverso metodi a basso costo basati su analisi di onde
di superficie;
− Implementazione di un’interfaccia WEB-GIS per la consultazione di ITACA,
aggiornamento delle maschere per la ricerca dei dati accelerometrici e inserimento di
nuovi indicatori per la loro caratterizzazione;
Il portale-web di ITACA sarà inoltre corredato da una serie di pagine informative destinate
ad un ampio pubblico relative all’accelerometria, affrontando argomenti quali la
strumentazione, il processamento dati, calcolo di parametri strong-motion ed effetti di sito.
Al fine di qualificare al meglio i dati accelerometrici di ITACA, corredandoli di informazioni
aggiuntive, sono previste due attività di ricerca:
− la prima relativa all’identificazione e classificazione di stazioni accelerometriche anomale
le cui registrazioni possono risentire o di effetti di sito complessi, dovuti ad esempio alla
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presenza di irregolarità topografiche e geomorfologiche , o effetti di interazione suolostruttura;
− la seconda relativa all’identificazione di parametri alternativi alla Vs,30 che possano
essere utilizzati per schemi di classificazione sismica di sito, quali ad esempio la
frequenza di risonanza del sito, la profondità del bedrock, etc.
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Project S4
Title: ITALIAN STRONG MOTION DATA BASE
1. Coordinators
− Francesca Pacor, Senior Researcher – Instituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia – Sezione
di Milano-Pavia, Via Bassini, 15, 20133 Milano, Email: [email protected];
Tel: +39 02 23699 279; Cell: + 39 348 3030989
− Roberto Paolucci, Associate Professor – Department of Structural Engineering, Politecnico di
Milano, P.za Leonardo da Vinci, 32, 20133 Milano, Email: [email protected]; Tel: +39 02
23994353; Cell: +39 320 0951471.
2. Objectives
1. To improve and update the Italian strong motion database (ITACA) developed within
project S6, in the framework of the previous 2004-2006 DPC-INGV agreement,
including information available from national and local accelerometer networks.
2. To make the database a “dynamic” and “user-friendly” tool for engineers and
seismologists, integrated in the framework of the major strong motion databases in the
world, that could be easily updated with records from future earthquakes, not only
during the lifetime of the project, but also in the forthcoming years.
3. To enrich the database with innovative features, such as a web-GIS user’s interface,
the identification of anomalous sites and records, the introduction of new parameters
for seismic site classification, that are expected to make ITACA a reference tool for
professionals and researchers worldwide.
4. To improve the dissemination of ITACA and the related products, by including
educational pages in the web-portal, to introduce professionals to strong motion
instrumentation principles, data processing, seismic site effects, strong-ground motion
parameters.
5. To provide updated information about the geological/geotechnical characterization of
the ITACA recording sites.
6. To carry out low-cost geophysical investigations to several selected recording stations,
using state-of-art techniques mainly based on surface waves active and passive
measurements. This will increase the number of accelerometer stations for which a
quantitative description of the shear wave velocity profile is available, and will allow to
verify the reliability of such techniques in different site conditions, depending on the
urban environment, the complexity of the geological configurations, etc.
7. To identify the ITACA stations, where an “anomalous” seismic response is expected,
either due to complex stratigraphic or topographic irregularities, or due to the
interaction with man-made structures, such as dams.
8. To enrich the station description in the database with additional site parameters,
suitable to improve criteria for seismic site classification.
9. To propose improved site classification criteria, including rock or very stiff soil sites
(EC8-Class A), suitable to better constrain the evaluation of seismic site effects and to
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better calibrate either the correction factors for empirical ground motion prediction
equations or the site coefficients for design spectra.
3. State of the art
For decades, the reference ground motion for earthquake engineering has been the
renowned El Centro accelerogram, recorded in California in 1940. It was only after the
Loma Prieta (1989), Northridge (1994) and Kobe (1995) earthquakes that hundreds of
strong motion records were obtained and made available worldwide through databases
accessible from the Internet. Among the most widespread databases, we recall here the
European Strong Motion Database (www.isesd.cv.ic.ac.uk, but presently not accessible)
collecting more than 3000 records from Europe and neighboring regions, the PEER Strong
Motion Database (peer.berkeley.edu), collecting records from the most important
earthquakes from California and worldwide, the Kyoshin network (www.k-net.bosai.go.jp/),
with records from more than 1000 digital accelerometer stations in Japan. COSMOS
(www.cosmos-eq.org) is probably the first properly “global” strong motion database, with
worldwide contributing institutions.
Although Italy has one of the richest datasets in the world, it was only during the past
DPC-INGV agreement (2004-2006, S6 project, esse6.mi.ingv.it) that a comprehensive
Italian strong motion database was implemented, with the aims of: a) collecting strong
motion data (1972-2004) from the National Accelerometer Network (RAN), presently
operated by DPC; b) revising earthquakes, recording sites and instrument metadata; c)
establishing procedures for data processing and calculation of strong motion parameters;
d) disseminating data through a web portal. This database (ITACA, ITalian ACelerometric
Archive) presently contains 2182 three component waveforms generated by 1004
earthquakes with a maximum moment magnitude of 6.9 (1980 Irpinia earthquake).
The strong motion data were processed using standard routines, different for analog and
digital records. The raw and processed acceleration time-series can be downloaded,
together with the velocity and 5% damped acceleration response spectra. The database is
accessible at the web site http://itaca.mi.ingv.it. It includes a wide range of search tools
enabling the user to interactively retrieve events, recording stations and waveforms with
particular features. Several display options allow users to view data in different formats
and to extract and download time series and spectral data.
The site characterization of ITACA recording stations is at different level of progress.
Within a total of 616 stations included during the previous project, a monograph was
prepared for about 2/3 of them with the instrument information and the geologicalgeotechnical characterization of the installation site, where available. For about only 6% of
the whole stations a detailed shear wave velocity profile based on borehole measurements
is presently available. In addition, the instrument history was included in the data base, to
increase the quality of information extracted from records.
Therefore, a significant improvement and update of ITACA is needed, first to include the
whole set of RAN accelerograms; second, to complete the catalogue of available
geological/geotechnical information about recording stations; third, to increase the number
of stations with a reliable site characterization and a quantitative description of the shear
wave velocity profile will further contribute to the improvement of ITACA.
Furthermore, ITACA will be enriched with data coming from local networks as well,
operated by public administrations and/or research institutions. The latter include, among
others, two accelerometer networks in Friuli, operated by the University of Trieste and by
the Center for Seismological Research in Udine, one in Campania, operated by AMRA and
University of Naples, one in Basilicata, operated by University of Basilicata, one in
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Northern Italy operated by INGV Milano and the accelerometer stations throughout Italy
operated by the Earthquake National Center of INGV.
Finally, this project will strictly interact with two other projects which are currently in
progress, and are expected to provide an improvement of the information available on the
Italian accelerometer stations characterization, i.e., the Joint Research Activity JRA4 of the
European project NERIES (Network of Research Infrastructures for European Seismology,
www.neries-eu.org), and the joint collaboration between PEER (Pacific Earthquake
Engineering Research Center) and the Sapienza University of Rome (Scasserra et al.,
2006; 2008).
The main objective of this Project is to make available through the Internet an updated and
improved release of the Italian accelometer database (ITACA), originally developed within
project S6, in the framework of the 2004-2006 DPC-INGV agreement.
To pursue this objective, the following activities are foreseen:
− addition of the most recent accelerometric records (2004-2007) from the National
Accelerometer Network, operated by DPC;
− collection of records together with geological/geotechnical information on the recording
stations from research institutions and public administrations other than DPC, once
suitable agreements be signed between DPC and the institutions operating the
network;
− completion of the set of monographs for the geological/geotechnical description of
recording sites;
− increasing the number of stations with a quantitative description of the shear wave
velocity profile, using low-cost methods for site investigations, mainly based on active
or passive surface waves measurements;
− implementation of a web-GIS interface, allowing the interactive exploration of
geographical data and of the related attributes.
Educational pages will also be prepared and added to the ITACA web portal, to introduce
professionals to strong motion instrumentation principles, data processing, seismic site
effects and strong-ground motion parameters.
In parallel to these activities, strictly related to the database improvement and
implementation, further research activities are planned to enrich the database with
innovative features, that are expected to make ITACA a reference search tool for
professionals and researchers worldwide, namely:
− identification of accelerometer stations, where an “anomalous” seismic response is
expected, either due to complex stratigraphic or topographic irregularities, or due to the
interaction with man-made structures, such as dams.
− addition of new descriptive site parameters, to improve the reliability of site
classification.
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The project will be organised through the following five Tasks.
Tas
Topic
1
ITACA update
k
2
Geological-geotechnical catalogue of ITACA
sites
3
Site characterization by surface waves methods
4
Identification of anomalous sites and records
5
Site classification
Leaving to the following sections a detailed description of the Tasks and of the related
activities, it is remarked here that the Project involves a broad range of expertise from
different fields, such as computer technical experts for the development and testing of the
database, seismologists with in-depth experience on data processing and seismic site
effects analysis, geotechnical earthquake engineers and geologists with experience in
seismic site characterization and site classification, with special emphasis on the
applications to seismic codes. Research groups with renowned experience are also
involved for the monitoring activity and for the numerical modelling of complex site
configurations.
Acquisition of new seismic data-sets from seismic arrays are planned and are expected to
approximately double the present number of strong motion stations with a quantitative
description of the shear wave velocity profile (around 40). Collection of data-sets coming
from previous projects and from available information from local networks will further
increase the number of ITACA stations with a comprehensive and quantitative information
for seismic site characterization.
The research units (RU) and their main contributions are listed in the following table.
RU
Institution Resp.RU
RU1 INGV-MI
Luzi
RU2 INGVRM1
Milana
RU3 Poli-MI
Paolucci
Main contributions
Project coordination
ITACA update (Task 1)
Geological-geotechnical characterization of ITACA sites (Task2)
Site investigations by array techniques (Task 3)
Seismic monitoring of anomalous sites (Task 4)
Site classification (Task 5)
Seismological characterization of events (Task 1)
Identification of anomalous sites and records (Task 4)
Seismic monitoring of anomalous sites and modelling (Task 4)
Project coordination
Educational pages on engineering seismology and applications
(Task1)
Identification of anomalous sites an records and modelling (Task
4)
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RU4 Poli-TO
RU5
Uni-BAS
RU6
Uni-RM1
RU7 Uni-SI
RU8 GFZ
Foti
Formulation of standard procedures for site investigations (Task
3)
Mucciarelli Educational pages on engineering seismology and applications
(Task1)
3)
Identification of anomalous recordings (interaction with man-made
structures) (Task 4)
Lanzo
Promotion of ITACA within international strong motion databases
(Task1)
Albarello
Site investigations by array techniques at rock sites (Task 3)
Site classification with emphasis on rock sites (Task 5)
Parolai
3)
Seismic monitoring of a selected “anomalous” site and numerical
modelling (Task 4)
As made clear by the previous table, all RUs will be involved in different Tasks, so to
promote as much as possible the fruitful interaction between Project partners and the ease
of information flow between the various project activities. This is expected to improve the
synergies among research groups with different scientific background, within a project that
is in itself highly multidisciplinary. An example of such interaction is the site
characterization activity, which will play a major role in the success of the project and in
the advancement of the various tasks. To better define the roles of the various RUs, it was
preferred to split it into two parts, the first one (Task 2) mainly devoted to archive the
existing site information, and the second one (Task 3), to enlarge the number of stations
with a quantitative detailed documentation of the soil profile. However, the presence of two
RUs (INGV-RM and INGV-MI) in both Tasks will make easier the “real-time” exchange of
information between both tasks, and, at the same time, will be helpful to exploit the
information within the other project activities.
Cooperation among different DPC projects on specific topics will be undertaken as well.
The S4 coordinators will promote the transfer of data and information coming from S4
activities, especially regarding the site characterization and seismic classification.
Moreover, the S4 coordinators will cooperate with the DPC referees and the S3
coordinators to define the agreements between DPC itself and the managing institutions of
local networks to collect and distribute strong motion data, together with all the information
available on the recording stations and site conditions. This will avoid overlapping of
activities and guarantee the homogeneity of data distributed and used by the various
Projects.
Finally, the project will benefit from consulting and scientific support from international
experts, who already agreed to take part to some of the Project meetings, such as:
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(a) P.Y. Bard (LGIT, University of Grenoble), who will share the NERIES experience and
advances, in quality of leader of the NERIES Joint Research Activity JRA4 Geotechnical
site characterization
(b) J. Douglas (BRGM, Orléans), one of the main developers of the European Strong
Motion Database
(c) J. Stewart (UCLA, Los Angeles), who is one of the reference researchers of the Pacific
Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER), as regards engineering seismology
issues.
4.2 Description of activities and methodologies
Task 1 – ITACA update (Scientific responsibles: Francesca Pacor, RU1-INGV-MI,
Roberto Paolucci, RU3-Poli-MI)
This task will pursue the activities of Project DPC-INGV S6, carried out during the past
DPC – INGV Agreement (2004-2006), aimed at the implementation of the Italian strong
motion database (ITACA). During the previous project, a preliminary version of the data
base was released (ITACA, version v0.8a), including 2182 three component waveforms
relative to 1004 earthquakes with maximum magnitude 6.9 (1980 Irpinia earthquake) in the
period range 1972 – 2004. Data have been collected, put into a common format and
processed according to defined standard procedures. Acceleration, velocity, displacement
and acceleration response spectra have been calculated, together with the most widely
used engineering ground motion parameters. To increase the data quality, the parameters
corresponding to the seismic events have been included after a careful revision, through
the use of the most updated seismic catalogues and data bases. The data set has been
organized in a relational data base, which is made of four main “blocks”, relative to
waveforms, seismic events, recording stations and references. The data base is
distributed as a stand-alone format, which can be downloaded on a PC and explored
through the MS Access software, or it can be accessed via web at the address:
http://itaca.mi.ingv.it. The on-line data base can be interactively searched by users through
user friendly data queries, which allow the identification of waveforms with specific
features.
The general aim of this task is to improve and update ITACA by increasing the number of
strong motion data and to make it the reference database for Italian strong motion data.
The following activities are planned.
1.1 The “beta” version of ITACA [ITACA v1.0b], i.e., the revised final product of the past
Project S6, will be released in the first few months of the project. (→ Deliverable D1).
This release will be progressively updated during the life time of the project.
1.2 The DPC strong-motion data in the time span 2005-2007 will be collected and
processed, and the new events, stations, waveforms and instrument metadata will be
added, to bring the data collection up to date.
1.3 A comprehensive investigation will be made to gather information about local strong
motion networks, either presently in operation or temporarily installed within specific
research projects, and to collect data from these sources.
1.4 After definition of the necessary agreements among DPC and the managing
authorities of the operating local Italian accelerometer networks, records from such
networks will be added to the database, together with the available information for
site characterization in the same format as defined in Task 2. The agreements will
cover not only the availability of accelerograms recorded in the past, but in the
forthcoming years as well.
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1.5 An accurate test of the system efficiency of the ITACA web-portal for strong-motion
data dissemination will be performed, with the aim of completing the activity started
during the past S6 project and producing the ITACA release 1.0b. New queries for
extracting strong-motion data will also be developed. In particular, starting from the
current release ITACA v0.8a, possible bugs will be checked due to incompatibility
with the main web browsers and set up a backend system for publishing data.
1.6 The web-portal structure will be improved by adding a web-GIS interface, allowing
the interactive exploration of geographical data and the related attributes and the
introduction of new data layers, such as administrative boundaries, 1:100.000 scale
geological map and a digital elevation model. The latter activity will be made in
cooperation with the S3 project.
1.7 The presently available routines for data processing will be further improved and
tested.
1.8 A set of procedures for quasi real-time data transmission will be established for
publication of waveforms on the web within a reasonable delay (maximum 1-2
weeks), after the earthquake occurrence. For the time delay between the earthquake
and the publication of the waveforms in the web to be as short as possible, it is
crucial, first, to establish common data exchange protocols between the various
networks, in agreement with Project S3 and DPC, and, second, that the same
agreements for data transmission taken by DPC with the local networks
administrations in the framework of S3 project, be applied for project S4 as well.
1.9 Educational pages will be included in the web-portal, to introduce professionals to
strong motion instrumentation principles, data processing, seismic site effects,
strong-ground motion parameters.
1.10 The necessary contacts will be taken, in agreement with DPC, to integrate ITACA
with other strong motion databases worldwide, such as COSMOS, PEER, EMSC, in
order to check the consistency of published records and to promote the direct link to
ITACA .
1.11 The feasibility to include synthetic seismograms in ITACA database will be
investigated, especially to compensate the lack of records from some of the major
earthquakes of the recent Italian history. To do that, a close cooperation is foreseen
with the deterministic near-fault scenario generation activity planned within Task3 of
project S3 and within Task 4 of project S2. Criteria will be proposed to assess the
reliability of synthetic seismograms, that should have a realistic frequency content
and waveform complexity, in order to establish a minimum standard of quality of
synthetic data to be potentially introduced in the database. In some cases, where the
soil profile is known down to the bedrock, recorded accelerograms deconvolved for
the site transfer function will be provided as representative of the ideal outcropping
bedrock site.
The whole set of activities will form the final release of ITACA (→ Deliverable D2).
Task 2 – Geological-geothecnical catalogue of ITACA sites (Scientific responsibles:
Giuseppe Di Capua, RU2-INGV-RM, Giuseppe Lanzo, RU6- Uni-RM1)
Knowledge of local soil conditions is an important factor for interpreting the recorded
waveforms of earthquake ground motion, since different site conditions can induce
amplifications in different period ranges and influence peak values of ground motion and
response spectral ordinates. Moreover, use of real accelerograms compatible with a
response spectrum representative of prescribed local soil conditions is becoming a
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common requirement for earthquake resistant design of structural and geotechnical
systems. Recognition of the importance of site amplification has recently prompted efforts
to establish subsoil conditions of accelerometric stations included in the Italian strong
motion database (ITACA).
The primary aim of this task is to complete the catalogue of available geological and
geotechnical information of recording stations, developed in the framework of the past S6
project, in order to provide researchers and professionals the most comprehensive, albeit
synthetic, information about recording instruments and site conditions.
To this aim, the monograph descriptions of the instrument information and available data
for geological-geotechnical characterization at each recording station included in the
ITACA database will be completed. This implies updating the existing monographs,
compiled within the previous S6 project for about 2/3 of the RAN stations, and preparing
new ones for the remaining stations of the RAN and of the other stations belonging to local
networks. This activity will be carried out as follows:
2.1 Definition of a standard format to collect geological, geomorphological, geotechnical
and geophysical data, in agreement with DPC and taking into account the previous
experience of project S6 and NERIES (→ Deliverable D3).
2.2 Acquisition, collection and compilation of data available in the literature or coming
from other sources such as:
- microzonation studies for local municipalities;
- geological studies from public administrations;
- individual site studies from private companies, consulting engineers and
geologists with local experience;
2.3 Exploiting information and experimental results coming from other research projects,
such as NERIES and the joint research project between PEER and Sapienza
University in Rome;
2.4 Including results obtained by the experimental activity of Task 3;
2.5 Providing average horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios calculated on selected records
for as many as possible stations, especially for those where the geologicalgeotechnical characterization is very poor.
2.6 Providing the final set of monographs to be included in ITACA (→ Deliverables D4,
D5).
The catalogue prepared within this Task will provide the basis for the seismic classification
of the ITACA recording sites (Task 5).
Task 3 – Site characterization with surface waves methods (Scientific responsibles:
Sebastiano Foti, RU4-Poli-TO, Stefano Parolai, RU8-GFZ)
An adequate knowledge of site conditions is a fundamental prerequisite for a correct
assessment of site effects on seismic records. The most relevant information in this
respect is undoubtedly the profile of shear wave velocities. Borehole methods such as
cross-hole or down-hole measurements provide the highest accuracy, but the associated
costs prevent a diffuse application of such methods for the detailed characterization of
hundreds of sites such as for the ITACA stations. On the other hand, the level of detail
provided by boreholes methods is not strictly necessary for the seismic characterization of
a site. In this respect, several techniques based on the analysis of surface wave
propagation may provide the relevant information at an acceptable cost.
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Surface wave methods are based on the geometrical dispersion of Rayleigh (and Love)
waves in vertically heterogeneous media (Lai and Wilmanski, 2005). The shear wave
velocity profile is obtained by the solution of an inverse problem for model parameter
identification.
On the basis of the type of experimental measurements it is possible to discriminate
passive and active methods. Passive methods are based on the analysis of microtremors,
either associated to natural events or man-made noise (Okada, 2003). They allow for the
characterization of deeper strata, but suffer of limited resolution close to the ground
surface because of the lack of high frequency components in the recordings. The opposite
can be stated for active measurements, based on the use of small portable sources
activated on the ground surface, which generate mainly high frequency components.
Typically the combination of active and passive measurements can provide an optimal
result, combining the information on different frequency ranges.
The main weakness of surface wave methods is related to non-uniqueness of the solution,
which is inherently associated to any inverse problem. This is often combined with the
uncertainty of experimental data and with the need of complex processing techniques to
extract the experimental dispersion curve, especially in the case of passive tests. A blind
test on passive data has been run with the contribution of several institutions in the
framework of the Third International Symposium on the Effects of Surface Geology on
Seismic Motion in Grenoble (Bard et al., 2006). The results have shown the relevance of
the aforementioned issues and have lead to some important lessons in relation to a careful
processing and interpretation of experimental data. A priori information and external
constraints in the inversion process can undoubtedly increase the reliability of results.
Scope of the present task is, first, to assess the reliability of surface wave techniques
(either based on microtremors or active measurements) and their limits of application for
seismic characterization of the ITACA sites. Second, to increase the number of sites for
which a quantitative information on the dynamic characterization of the shallow soil profile
is available, to support DPC in the gradual extension of the site characterization program
to the entire National accelerometer network.
The following activities are planned:
3.1 Formulation of reference procedures to be used by the project RUs involved in this
Task, to carry out geotechnical and geophysical site characterization with low-cost
methods based on surface waves measurements (active and/or passive). These
procedures will integrate results from the ongoing European project NERIES and
from the Italian Technical Guidelines for Microzonation, recently compiled under the
supervision of DPC, as soon as they will be published. Standard schemes will be
defined for planning the characterization activities and properly select the
experimental technique suitable for the specific features of the site (e.g.,
topographical location, weathered rock sites, urban or quiet areas, available space
for testing) and budget constraints. (→ Deliverable D6)
3.2 Site investigations using the procedures previously defined at several well
documented sites (e.g., Bevagna, Umbria). The comparison with available results
from previous investigations will be helpful to calibrate different methods for data
processing and inversion and to assess their applicability in complex environments,
such as urban areas and complex geological structures. (→ Deliverable D6)
3.3 Application of surface wave methods to a selected set of ITACA station sites (→
Deliverable D7).
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3.4 Interaction with Task 5, to assess the reliability of surface waves techniques for the
identification of additional parameters other than VS,30 for seismic site classification
(→ Deliverable D7).
3.5 A standard will be proposed to retain all the relevant information and raw
experimental data which could be used for later re-interpretations. In particular, this is
relevant to better constrain the solution of inverse methods, in the case that
additional information at a given station will be available subsequently. (→
Deliverable D7)
Task 4 – Identification of anomalous sites and records (Scientific responsibles:
Roberto Paolucci, RU3-Poli-MI; Antonio Rovelli, RU2-INGV-RM)
In most cases, researchers and professionals who access a strong motion database to
download strong-motion data satisfying some prescribed search criteria, do not know the
actual recording conditions, and merely rely upon the available qualitative seismic
classification of the site. Therefore, although the selection meets the target magnitude,
distance and site classification, the accelerogram may not be fit for the engineering or
seismic hazard applications it was selected for, because its peak values or spectral
content can be affected by complex source, path or site effects. This is especially true for
EC8-Class A bedrock sites that are often selected to extract suitable reference ground
motions for seismic hazard analyses. There are at least two well known examples of such
records, such as Nocera Umbra (Rovelli et al., 2002) and Tolmezzo-Ambiesta (Barnaba et
al., 2007). In the first case, a buried wedge of weathered rock underlying the station,
combined with specific features due to fault rupture directivity, was the cause of the
extremely large values of peak ground motion, made clear by the Umbria-Marche 19971998 seismic sequence, with peak ground acceleration larger than 0.5 g. In the second
case, the Tolmezzo-Ambiesta record of the M 6.4 May 6, 1976 Friuli earthquake has been
largely used both for calibration of attenuation relationships in Italy and Europe and as an
input for structural analyses and/or site amplification studies. Barnaba et al (2007)
demonstrated that the high amplification observed at this station can be induced by the
Ambiesta dam, the station being located above the abutment.
The following main activities are foreseen:
4.1 Identification of the ITACA recording stations, that may be affected by “anomalous”
response, so that they should not be considered as representative of the “standard”
response in free-field conditions (→ Deliverable D8). Such identification will be
carried out based on a combination of these activities:
- bibliographic search, to highlight the recording sites that have already been the
object of careful investigations in the past, due to the specific features of the
recorded accelerograms;
- analysis of recorded data, to check whether observed peak values at the same
station lie systematically beyond (or below) the average trend lines obtained by
Empirical Ground Motion Predictive Equations (EGMPEs);
- geomorphology study, to select the stations located in complex geological features,
such as deep alluvial basins, with possible site amplification effects at long periods,
topographic irregularities, alluvial fans, or complex soil layering with velocity
inversions;
- instrument location, related to the possible interaction with surrounding man-made
structures, such as dams.
136/191
4.2 Some of the stations identified in the previous phase (4.1) and representative of
different classes of anomalies (deep basin, topography, proximity to man-made
structure) will be selected and studied in more detail, with the help of in-field
monitoring and numerical modelling. For this purpose the following activities are
planned (→ Deliverable D9):
- retrieve data from previous site investigations and monitoring, such as for the
Gubbio-Piana station, investigated during the DPC-INGV (2004-2006) S3 project
(esse3.mi.ingv.it), located in a deep alluvial basin and affected by large long period
amplification effects;
- in-field monitoring of at least two RAN station sites, with complex geological
configurations, such as steep topographic profiles and shallow/deep basins;
- numerical modelling of some of the selected cases, using up-to-date tools for 2D3D seismic wave propagation and soil-structure interaction analyses (Stupazzini et
al., 2008). Such numerical modelling will contribute to understand the physical
reasons of the anomalies and the period range in which they mostly affect
earthquake ground motion.
4.3 The anomalies identified and analyzed in the previous phases of this task will be
classified and reported in the database. Practical indications will be provided to
account for such anomalies in practice, such as by calibration of scaling factors, to be
applied either to the response spectral ordinates or to the peak values of ground
motion. Simplified approaches will be calibrated, and made available to ITACA users,
for the identification of possible soil-structure interaction effects on recorded ground
motion (→ Deliverable D9).
Task 5 – Site classification (Scientific responsibles: Lucia Luzi, RU1-INGV-MI; Marco
Mucciarelli, RU5-Uni-Bas; Dario Albarello, RU7-Uni-SI)
The most recent seismic codes have recognised the significant role of site effects on
earthquake ground motion and included them in the definition of the seismic action for
design. Several site-classification methods are based on the shear wave velocity profiles,
but, since the early 90s (Borcherdt, 1992), Vs,30, i.e., the weighted average of shear wave
velocity in the uppermost 30 m, has become the most common parameter for the
simplified classification of a site in terms of its seismic response (Eurocode 8, CEN 2004;
BSSC, 2003). When no quantitative determination of the shear-wave velocity profile is
available, as it is most often the case in practice, the classification of a site is typically
based on the geological/geotechnical characterization of the shallowest layers, as it is
prescribed in the Eurocode 8 and in the Italian seismic norms.
Although some of the Italian strong-motion stations have sufficient information for the
quantitative evaluation of the Vs,30 parameter, most of them have not, so that alternative
site indicators should be sought to properly summarize the available
geophysical/geotechnical information at a site. Furthermore, recent researches have
questioned the applicability of Vs,30 as a suitable parameter to properly quantify seismic
site amplification effects, and pointed out that many Italian sites are installed on complex
geological configurations, such as soil layering with important shallow velocity inversions,
leading to unexpected soil amplification levels if Vs,30 parameter alone would be used
(Mucciarelli and Gallipoli, 2006).
The aim of this task is, on one hand, to revise the classification of the sites of the Italian
strong-motion stations according to the classes of the Eurocode 8 and of the Italian
seismic norms, and, on the other hand, to provide the end-user of the database further
137/191
parameters obtained with low cost methods, suitable for alternative site classification
techniques.
A possible selection of such parameters could be the depth of the soil deposit (H), the
average shear wave velocity down to H (Vs,H), the period (T0) corresponding to the first
peak of the average horizontal to vertical (H/V) spectral ratio curve, estimated on the data
available at the site. It is remarked that the previous parameters have been proposed by
the European Technical Committee ETC-12 (Pitilakis et al., 2007), in the framework of the
ongoing activity for the geotechnical evaluation and application of Eurocode 8. Further
examples come from the Japanese code (JRA, 1996), which in addition to the
geotechnical description of soil types, explicitly introduces the thickness of the surface soil
deposits and the site natural vibration periods. Among the recent research works on the
subject, we recall that Zhao et al (2006), based on the wealth of Japanese K-Net records,
propose a classification index based on the mean response spectral ratio over a wide
range of periods, while Phung et al (2006), based on the Chi-Chi earthquake records,
discriminate between soil and rock sites according to a suitable estimation of the
predominant period.
Although it is not the scope of this project to assess the best parameter set for possible
improvement of the current classification criteria mainly based on Vs,30, the availability of
such parameters in the database would be valuable for researchers worldwide working on
the estimation of novel ground motion prediction equations and on the quantification of site
effects for seismic design.
In addition to the previous activity mainly devoted to seismic classification of soil deposits,
a special effort will also be paid to the classification of rock and very stiff soil sites (EC8
Class A). Indeed, it is well known that the proper identification of outcropping bedrock sites
in a seismic network is crucial to constrain the evaluation of seismic site effects and the
calibration of correction factors for empirical ground motion prediction equations or of site
coefficients for design spectra. In the recent European research project Sismovalp (wwwlgit.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr/sismovalp), dealing with the seismic risk evaluation in the Alpine
valleys, this issue was made clear and average velocity profiles to characterize
outcropping bedrock sites in the Alpine regions were derived. In the Appennines, Class A
sites are even more difficult to be studied, because of widespread evidence of rock and
soil alteration phenomena induced by faulting, jointing and weathering. These could be
responsible for significant modifications of dynamic properties of the subsoil and
alterations of the seismic response at the site. Together with geological investigations, the
experimental techniques of Task 3 will also be applied at selected sites to obtain
representative Class A velocity profiles. The objective of this activity will be the
discrimination in the database of different types (or sub-classes) of Class A sites, that will
guide the ITACA users to a proper selection of reference ground motions.
Finally, the quantitative results for geotechnical characterization of the ITACA sites will be
correlated with the surface geology description, in close cooperation with Task 2 activities.
Distribution of available Vs,30, shear wave velocity profiles and broad geological
classification at the station sites will also be checked (see e.g. Wills and Clahan, 2006 for
an application to California), in order to verify the applicability of simplified classification
scheme at sites where only geological information at 1:100.000 scale are available.
The previous research activities are expected to be relevant both to seismic hazard
mapping at a regional/national scale (Project S2, of the DPC-INGV 2007-2009 agreement)
and to production of more reliable shake maps (Project S3).
138/191
This Task will be developed according to the following main activities:
5.1 Revised classification of ITACA sites, according to EC8 and to the Italian seismic
norms. This will be made based on an “expert” judgment of the information coming
from Task 2 for each station, and will account explicitly for the degree of reliability of
the available information at the various sites (→ Deliverable D10).
5.2 Seismic classification of ITACA bedrock sites. The classification of rock sites into
sub-classes will be considered, similarly to the Class A and Class B subdivisions of
the NEHRP 2003 seismic classification and will take advantage of the results
obtained in Task 3 and Task 4. Furthermore, outcropping bedrock sites suitable as
reference sites for seismic hazard studies will be identified in the ITACA database.
Based on these results, EGMPEs at national scale will be developed for bedrock
sites (→ Deliverable D11)
5.3 Identification of new site parameters for seismic classification criteria and inclusion in
the ITACA database. This activity will first consider the critical review of methods
proposed in the literature for improved site classification, and check of their
applicability using the Italian data set. Then, a selection of descriptive site
parameters suitable for site response characterization will be made, with the
constrain that they can be obtained either by low cost geophysical and geological
investigations or by spectral techniques on the available strong/weak motion records
(interaction with Task 3). Testing of several site classification schemes will be made,
both by application to well documented sites, and by the estimation of the standard
deviation of empirical ground motion models. EGMPEs at national scale will be
developed for peak ground motion parameters testing different site classification
schemes (→ Deliverables D12 and D13).
5. Main references
Bard P.Y., Chaljub E., Cornou C., Cotton F., Gueguen P. Eds. Proc. 3rd Int. Symp. on the
Effects of Surface Geology on Seismic Motion. Grenoble, France. Vol. 2, LNPC. 2006.
Barnaba C., Priolo E., Vuan A., Romanelli M. (2007). Site Effect of the Strong-Motion Site
at Tolmezzo-Ambiesta Dam in Northeastern Italy, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., vol. 97, 339346.
Borcherdt R. D. (1992). Simplified site classes and empirical amplification factors for sitedependent code provisions, in Proc. NCEER, SEAOC, BSSC Workshop on Site
Response during Earthquakes and Seismic Code Provisions, November 18-20,
University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California.
Building Seismic Safety Council (2003). NEHRP Recommended provisions for seismic
regulations for new buildings and other structures, prepared for the Federal Emergency
Management Agency, FEMA 450, Washington DC.
CEN (2004) Eurocode 8: Design of structures for earthquake resistance – Part 1: General
rules, seismic actions and rules for buildings. Bruxelles
JRA – Japan Road Association (1996). Japan Specifications for Highway bridges, Part V:
Seismic design,Tokyo, Japan.
Lai C.G. and Wilmanski K. eds. (2005) Surface Waves in Geomechanics: Direct and
Inverse Modelling for Soils and Rocks, CISM Series, Number 481, , Springer, Wien.
Mucciarelli M. and Gallipoli M.R. (2006) Comparison of vs30 and other estimates of site
amplification in Italy, Proc. First European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and
Seismology, Geneva, paper n. 270.
139/191
Okada, H. (2003) The microtremor survey method, Geophysical monograph series,
number 12, SEG, Tulsa, USA. 2003
Phung V., Atkinsons G. M., Lau T. (2006) Methodology for site classification estimation
using strong groubdmotion data from the Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake. Earthquake
Spectra, 22, 511-531.
Pitilakis K., C. Gazepis, A. Anastasiadis (2007). Design response spectra and soil
classification for seismic code provisions. In Proc. Workshop on Geotechnical
evaluation and application of the seismic Eurocode EC8 (G. Bouckovalas ed.), Athens,
January 2007.
Rovelli A., Caserta A., Marra F., Ruggiero V. (2002). Can Seismic Waves Be Trapped
inside an Inactive Fault Zone? The Case Study of Nocera Umbra, Central Italy. Bull.
Seism. Soc. Am., vol. 92, 2217-2232.
Scasserra G., Lanzo G., Mollaioli F., Stewart J.P., Bazzurro P., Decanini L.D. (2006).
Preliminary comparison of ground motions from earthquakes in italy with ground motion
prediction equations for active tectonic regions. Proc. of the 8th U.S. National
Conference on Earthquake Engineering, San Francisco, 18-22 Aprile 2006, CD rom,
Paper No. 1824.
Scasserra G., Stewart J.P., Kayen R.E., Lanzo G. (2008). Database for earthquake ground
motion studies in Italy. Journal of Earthquake Engineering (submitted for publication),
January 2008.
Stupazzini M., Paolucci R., Igel H. (2008). Near-fault earthquake ground motion simulation
in the Grenoble Valley by a high-performance spectral element code. Submitted for
publication to Bull. Seism. Soc. Am.
Wills C.J., Clahan, K.B. (2006). Developing a Map of Geologically Defined Site-Condition
Categories for California. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., vol. 96, 1483-1501.
Zhao J. X., Irikura K., Fukushima Y. Somerville P.G., Asano A., Ohno Y., Ouchi T.,
Takanashi T., Ogawa H. (2006) An empirical site-classification method for strongmotion stations in Japan using H/V response spectral ratio. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., vol.
96, n. 3, 914-92
140/191
6. Deliverables
Task 1
D1
Responsible
RU1 - INGV-MI
Release of beta-version of ITACA
Deadline 4 m
Product of immediate interest
to DPC
[ITACA v1.0b]
This release is the main product of project
S6, within the 2005-07 DPC-INGV
agreement, the robustness of which will be
tested in the first few months of the project.
The release will be progressively updated
during the life time of the project.
This is the main final product of the project.
It will be an up-to-date database integrated
in the framework of the major strong-motion
databases world wide. Its features will
include:
− availability of records from all the Italian
networks;
− a web-GIS user interface, for the
combined interactive exploration of
geographical data;
− the most updated filing for the
geological/geotechnical characterization
of the sites;
− a revised classification of the sites
according to the Italian seismic norms
and to the EC8;
− identification of sites and records
presenting anomalies with respect to
“standard” response;
− identification of outcropping bedrock sites
to be used as reference stations for
seismic hazard studies and engineering
applications;
− user manual in English and Italian;
− link to educational web pages, in Italian,
on
strong-motion
instrumentation
principles and data processing.
D2
Final release of ITACA
Responsible
RU1 - INGV-MI
[ITACA v1.0]
Deadline 24 m
to DPC
Task2
D3
Responsibles
RU2-INGV-RM1
RU6-Uni-RM1


Definition of the standard format
to
prepare
descriptive
monographs of ITACA stations
(Technical report)
This report will be compiled in close
cooperation with DPC and will take into
account the previous experience of project
S6 and NERIES
Deadline 4 m
Deadline 12 m
to DPC
Progress report on the ongoing
activity
for
constructing
a
catalogue
of
geological/geotechnical
information at accelerometer
stations
D5
Responsibles
RU2-INGV-RM1
RU6-Uni-RM1
to DPC
Catalogue
of
geological/geotechnical
information at accelerometer
stations (Technical report)
D4
Responsibles
RU2-INGV-RM1
RU6-Uni-RM1
141/191
A monograph will be prepared, for each
station of the ITACA database, containing
the most updated available information for
site characterization, and will be linked to
the station description field in the database.
Completion
of
Deliverable D4.
work
described
in
Deadline 24 m
to DPC
Task 3
D6
Responsibles
RU4 – Poli-TO
RU8 - GFZ
Deadline 12 m
Progress report on the application
of surface-waves methods for
seismic
site
characterization
(Technical report)
to DPC
D7
Responsibles
RU4 – Poli-TO
RU8 - GFZ
Deadline 24 m
Application of surface-waves
methods
for
seismic
site
characterization
of
ITACA
stations (Technical report)
to DPC
This report will include the results of
activities 3.1 and 3.2, i.e., formulation of
reference procedures to be used by project
RUs, considering and integrating the
NERIES project results, and validation of
these procedures by application to well
documented sites
This report will contain the summary of
experimental activities (3.3) carried out at
the ITACA stations within this project and
final considerations on their applicability for
the determination of other descriptive
parameters for site classification (3.4) and
for retaining relevant information for
subsequent re-intepretations.
Task 4
D8
Responsibles
RU2-INGV-RM1
RU3-POLI-MI
Deadline 12 m
D9
Responsibles
RU2-INGV-RM1
RU3-POLI-MI
Deadline 24m
Identification of ITACA sites and
records presenting anomalies in
the seismic response (Technical
report)
to DPC
Experimental
and
numerical
results for all stations selected to
study the effects of anomalous
site conditions (Technical report)
Research product, for future
applications of interest to DPC
This report will include the research
activities (4.1) to identify the anomalous
stations of the ITACA database and to
select the sites where detailed analysis will
be performed both through monitoring and
numerical modelling.
This report will summarize the research
activity within Task 4, and will include: 1)
results of experimental and numerical
investigations at the selected sites (4.2); 2)
investigations of soil-structure interaction
effects at recording stations (4.2); 3)
classification of the anomalous sites and
records (4.3) in the database and
quantification of possible correction factors.
Task 5
D10
Responsibles
RU2-INGV-RM1
RU6-Uni-RM1
Deadline 24m
Revised seismic classification of
the ITACA stations, according to
the EC8 and the Italian norms
site classes (Technical report)
to DPC
D11
Responsible
RU7-Uni-Siena
Deadline 24m
D12
Responsibles
RU1-INGV-MI
RU5-Uni-BAS
Seismic classification of the
ITACA bedrock sites, with the
identification of reference sites for
seismic hazard studies and
engineering
applications
(Technical report)
to DPC
Critical review of methods
proposed in the literature for site
classification (Technical report).
142/191
This report will summarize the work carried
out in Task 2 on the collection and filing of
geological/geotechnical data about ITACA
station. It will provide as well the revised
classification with the grade of reliability.
Validations of simplified classification
criteria based on information from
geological maps will be included as well
This report will contain the scientific activity
(5.2) and will provide reference results for
seismic
hazard
assessment
at
regional/national scale (Project S2) and for
production of shake maps (Project S3).
This report will summarize available
methods and proposals for seismic site
classifications alternative to Vs,30, will
check their applicability using the ITACA
Deadline 12m
D13
Responsibles
RU1-INGV-MI
RU5-Uni-BAS
Deadline 24m
Identification
of
new
site
parameters for improved seismic
classification criteria (Technical
report)
data set, and will propose new descriptive
parameters of site conditions
This report will summarize the work carried
out in the activity 5.3, and will provide the
site information to build new classification
schemes.
7. Workplanning
A detailed temporal chart of the main Project activities is shown in the following Table.
1st year
II
2nd
year
I
II
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
I
1. ITACA update
Publication in the Web of ITACA ver. 0.8a, after
debugging
Inclusion in ITACA of 2005-07 records from the RAN
Collection of records from local networks and previous
research projects and inclusion in ITACA
Implementation of the Web-GIS interface
Protocol for quasi real-time data transmission
Preparation of educational pages
Test and debug of ITACA release 1.0
2. Geological-geotechnical catalogue of ITACA sites
Definition of a standard format
Collect information and filing
Synthesis of results and inclusion in ITACA
3. Site characterization by surface waves methods
Definition of procedures for site characterization
Application of active and passive techniques to several
existing datasets and comparison of results obtained by
different research groups
Determination of shear wave velocity profiles at a
selected number of accelerometer stations
Synthesis of results and inclusion in ITACA through Task
2
4. Identification of anomalous sites and records
Bibliographic search
Identification of anomalous sites based on geomorphological evidence
Identification of anomalous sites based on statistical
analysis of existing records
Seismic monitoring of selected sites
Numerical modelling of seismic response at selected sites
Synthesis of results and implementation in the database
5. Site classification
Revised site classification at recording stations based on
the Italian and European seismic norms
Check of applicability of simplified classification criteria
143/191
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
based on surface geology maps
Improved classification of rock sites
Bibliographic search and selection of descriptive
parameters for site conditions in addition to Vs,30
Statistical analyses to check improved site classification
schemes
Synthesis of results and implementation in the database
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
8. Personnel
Task/RU
RU-1
RU-2
RU-3
RU-4
RU-5
RU-6
RU-7
RU-8
RU responsible
(surname and name)
Institution
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e
Vulcanologia, sezione MilanoPavia
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e
Milana Giuliano
Vulcanologia, sezione Roma 1
Dipartimento
di
Ingegneria
Paolucci Roberto
Strutturale, Politecnico di Milano
Dipartimento
di
Ingegneria
Foti Sebastiano
Strutturale
e
Geotecnica,
Politecnico di Torino
Dipartimento
di
Strutture,
Geotecnica
e
Geologia
Mucciarelli Marco
Applicata,
Università
della
Basilicata
Dipartimento
di
Ingegneria
Lanzo Giuseppe
Strutturale
e
Geotecnica,
Università La Sapienza, Roma
Dipartimento di Scienze della
Albarello Dario
Terra, Università di Siena
GeoForschungsZentrum
Parolai Stefano
Potsdam (Germania)
* The number of months/person funded by the project does
plan)
Luzi Lucia
Months/Person
Months/Person*
I phase
II phase
I phase
II phase
37
37
16
17
1
1
7
7
8
8
5
5
1
1
6
6
0
0
10
10
0
0
5
6
0
0
3
4
0
0
not account for grants (item 4 of the financial
9.1. I phase
Type of expenditure
Importo
previsto
a
(total)
(Personnel)
etc.)
3)
Costi
Amministrativi
(solo
per
professionali
144/191
Finanziato
dal Co-finanziamento
Dipartimento
c = a-b
b
(co-funded)
(DPC contribution)
21.300
0,00
59.050
0,00
99.500
0,00
800
0,00
(Maintenance
and
assistance
of
services, etc.)
uso
7) Spese indirette
(Overheads)
Total
11.800
0,00
19.050
0,00
0,00
211.500
0,00
Importo
previsto
a
(total)
Finanziato
Dipartimento
c = a-b
b
(co-funded)
(DPC contribution)
9.2. II phase
Type of expenditure
(Personnel)
etc.)
3)
Costi
Amministrativi
(solo
per
professionali
(Maintenance
and
assistance
of
services, etc.)
uso
7) Spese indirette
(Overheads)
Total
27.300
0,00
72.300
0,00
83.500
0,00
0,00
6.850
0,00
18.550
0,00
0,00
208.500
0,00
9.3. Total
Type of expenditure
Importo
previsto
a
(total)
(Personnel)
etc.)
3)
Costi
Amministrativi
(solo
per
professionali
(Maintenance
and
assistance
of
Finanziato
Dipartimento
c = a-b
b
(co-funded)
(DPC contribution)
48.600
0,00
131.350
0,00
0
145/191
183.00
0,00
800
0,00
services, etc.)
uso
7) Spese indirette
(Overheads)
Total
0,00
146/191
18.650
0,00
37.600
0,00
420.000
0,00
Project S5
High resolution multi-disciplinary
monitoring of active fault test-sites areas
in Italy
Progetto S5
“Test-sites” per il monitoraggio
multidisciplinare di dettaglio
147/191
148/191
(Scheda sintetica in Italiano)
Progetto S5
Titolo “Test-sites” per il monitoraggio multidisciplinare di dettaglio
Coordinatori
Lucia Margheriti, Centro Nazionale Terremoti, INGV, Roma
Aldo Zollo , Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, Università di Napoli “Federico II”
Riassunto
Questo progetto è finalizzato a sostenere ricerche già avviate dall’INGV e dedicate
all’implementazione di sistemi di monitoraggio multi-parametrico di particolari aree sismogenetiche del territorio italiano.
L’obiettivo generale del progetto è quello di contribuire al miglioramento della comprensione dei
processi di genesi dei terremoti in Italia e dei loro tassi di occorrenza, attraverso studi mirati ed ad
elevato contenuto innovativo in test sites, dove sono attualmente disponibili (o in via di
realizzazione) reti tecnologicamente avanzate per l’osservazione multi-parametrica dei fenomeni
geofisici connessi all’attività sismica. A causa dei limitati fondi destinati a questo progetto si e’
deciso di non includere indagini geochimiche e studi di risposta sismica locale come era invece
previsto nell’allegato C della convenzione INGV-DPC.
La disponibilità di una grossa mole di dati di elevata qualità, acquisiti in tempo quasi-reale, in
prossimità di sistemi di faglie attive, richiede lo sviluppo e l’applicazione di metodi di analisi sempre
più evoluti, capaci di trattare la messe di informazioni multi-parametriche disponibili nei test sites,
ed elaborare e/o verificare modelli fisici predittivi dei fenomeni in atto. Da ciò discende la
peculiarità del progetto S5 che viene pertanto finalizzato allo sviluppo, implementazione e test di
tecniche innovative per la definizione delle geometrie delle zone di frattura sismica e delle
proprietà del mezzo circostante, per lo studio del comportamento meccanico delle faglie, per la
caratterizzazione dei tassi di deformazione e di sismicità mediante analisi congiunta di dati sismici
e geodetici, e per l’analisi in tempo reale dei segnali sismici per potenziali applicazioni di earlywarning sismico.
I “test-sites” prescelti per il progetto S5 sono: l’Appennino Umbro-Marchigiano, nella zona della
faglia Alto-Tiberina (Progetto Airplane Piattaforma di ricerca multidisciplinare su terremoti e
vulcani); l’area Calabra-Peloritana con particolare attenzione allo Stretto di Messina (Progetto
INGV Messina 1908-2008) e l’Appennino Campano-Lucano nella zona sismo-genetica dell’ Irpinia
(Progetto “Early Warning” del Centro Regionale di Competenza sui Rischi Ambientali, AMRA)
Il progetto si propone lo sviluppo di metodologie ad alto contenuto innovativo e multi-disciplinare
per l’acquisizione, l’analisi e la modellistica di osservazioni sismiche e geodetiche dei processi di
frattura sismica, dalla scala dei micro-terremoti a quella degli eventi di magnitudo moderata e forte,
con una risoluzione superiore a quella attualmente disponibile dall’analisi dei dati acquisiti da reti
tradizionali. I suoi prodotti andranno ad integrare gli studi condotti nel progetto S1 a scala
nazionale, fornendo un maggior dettaglio nei test site per cio’ che riguarda gli studi di sismicita’
questi aumenteranno la precisione nella definizione dello spessore dello strato sismogenetico e
contribuiranno all’individuazione di faglie sismicamente attive (almeno nei Task 2 e 3), per quel che
riguarda gli studi di deformazione geodetica i prodotti di S5 definiranno la distribuzione del tasso di
deformazione nell’area d del tasso di accumulo di deformazione sulle faglie (almeno nei Task 1 e
2). Nel caso di eventi moderati o forti le banche dati di S5 verranno integrate dalle registrazioni
accelerometriche archiviate in S4 e al contrario localizzazioni di dettaglio saranno passate da S5
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ad S4. E’ prevista inoltre, una sperimentazione per l’utilizzo dei dati della rete Irpina (Task 3) per il
calcolo delle mappe di scuotimento nell’ambito del progetto S3.
Nel caso del test-site nella zona di faglia Alto-Tiberina s’intende indagare i processi fisici che
governano la generazione dei terremoti su faglie normali a basso angolo, mediante l’installazione
di una rete sismica ad alta risoluzione, che include sismometri in pozzo, e l’integrazione di tecniche
di misura ed analisi multi-disciplinari nei settori della geologia, geodesia e della sismologia.
Per il test-site “Stretto di Messina” l’obiettivo principale delle ricerche proposte è l’implementazione
di un sistema di osservazione sismica integrato terra-mare e lo sviluppo di metodologie per l’analisi
del campo di deformazione da dati sismici e geodetici, nella regione colpita dal terremoto del 1908,
uno degli eventi più distruttivi della storia sismica recente italiana.
Il terzo test-site, ubicato nella zona colpita dal terremoto Irpino del 1980 in Appennino CampanoLucano, offre l’opportunità scientifica di realizzare studi ad alta definizione del sistema complesso
di faglie normali sud-appenniniche, attraverso l’analisi di dati di micro terremoti e di noise acquisiti
in tempo-reale da una infrastruttura avanzata per il monitoraggio sismico e geodetico.
Nel rapporto conclusivo alla fine dei due anni saranno riassunti i principali risultati della attivita’
tecnologiche e di ricerca condotte nei tre test site mettendo in evidenza quali sono le nuove
informazioni ottenute dal progetto S5 rispetto a quello che era lo stato di conoscenza di queste
aree; sara’ inoltre data, sulla base di queste tre differenti esperienze, una valutazione dell’impatto
che l’esistenza di reti di monitoraggio denso sul territorio italiano hanno ai fini di protezione Civile.
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Project S5
Title: “High-resolution multi-disciplinary monitoring of active fault
test-site areas in Italy”
1. Coordinators
Lucia Margheriti, Senior Researcher, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Centro Nazionale Terremoti
[email protected], +39 06 51860519, +39 3937721411
URL : http://www.cnt.ingv.it/margheriti
Aldo Zollo, Full Professor, Department of Physical Sciences – University of Naples
“Federico II”
[email protected], +39 081 2420315, 3489385716
URL: http://people.na.infn.it/~zollo/
List of participants (Research Units)
1. RU1 – Istituto Nazionale Geofisica e Vulcanologia
Responsible: Lauro Chiaraluce (INGV-CNT)
2. RU2 – University of Perugia
Responsible: Massimiliano Rinaldo Barchi (Department of Earth Science, Univ. Perugia)
3. RU3 - Istituto Nazionale Geofisica e Vulcanologia
Responsible: Lucia Margheriti (INGV-CNT); Giuseppe D’Anna (INGV-CNT)
4. RU4 – University of Messina
Responsible: Giancarlo Neri (Department of Department of Earth Science, Univ. Messina)
5. RU5 - Istituto Nazionale Geofisica e Vulcanologia
Responsible: Antonio Avallone (INGV – CNT)
6. RU6 – University of Naples “Federico II”
Responsible: Aldo Zollo (Department of Physical Sciences, Univ. Naples “Federico II”)
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2. Objectives
S5 project is aimed at supporting the ongoing research on selected Italian test sites where
advanced monitoring geophysical networks are available or under construction.
The main general objective of the project is to improve the understanding of earthquake generation
processes in Italy and to define the seismic rates in the three selected test sites by developing and
applying innovative methodologies to data-banks gathered by multi-disciplinary geophysical
networks. We focused the limited financial support appointed to project S5 to geophysical studies
and did not include in the project geochemical monitoring and site response studies, initially
included in the INGV-DPC convention (attachment C)
The three selected test sites are:
• The Alto Tiberina Fault (ATF) test site, located inside the Northern Apennines mountain;
• The Messina Strait test site, which include the southernmost portion of Italy and N-E of
Sicily: Calabro-Peloritani arc
• The Irpinia fault system test site, located along the Southern Apenninic mountain belt.
Specific research objectives are:
1. To promote an innovative and multidisciplinary research activity on the fault systems monitored
by three advanced seismological and geodetic networks in sites where further research
infrastructures will be potentially developed. The project integrate the ad-hoc monitoring networks
of the three sites with existing permanent networks in the regions (INGV seismic and geodedic
networks and acceleromentic data archived by S4).
2. To implement analysis and modeling methodologies to be applied to geodetic and seismological
data acquired (in real-time and off-line) to gain a detailed picture of seismogenic sources and of the
crust structure at the three test sites. The project S1 will benefit of the improvements gained at the
three test site in terms of improved earthquake locations and magnitude estimates and
improved estimates of seismogenic thickness ( expecially for Task2 and Task3).
3. To improve the knowledge of the active faults seismogenetic potential thanks to the high
resolution networks available in the test sites, in particular the geodetic networks in Task1 and
Task2 will derive the distribution of the tectonic strain rate and the rate of strain accumulation of
known active faults.
4. To develop and apply new techniques (potentially real time) to gain information on the spacetemporal evolution of the fractures field in the monitored areas trough detailed earthquake location,
magnitude estimation and seismic anisotropy monitoring for early warning and shake-maps
applications (in a close cooperation between Task 3 and S3).
Deliverables of S5 project ( for more details see table at point 6 of this document) which have
immediate impact and relevance for the Civil Protection Department (DPC) are :
Test site “ATF”:
• The seismic and geodetic networks deployed in this test site are permanent infrastructures
which will improve the monitoring capacity of the Umbria-Marche region.
• The studies finalized for borehole installations are important for the integration of borehole
seismometers inside the Italian National Seismic Network.
• HR and VHR stack sections and Vp images of the Tiber basin (500-1000 m deep) and of
the shallow fault zones (100-150 m deep) belonging to western splays of the ATF.
• Balanced geological sections, derived from depth converted seismic profiles at ATF test
site
• Geological and geomorphological map of the High Tiber Valley from Perugia to Città di
Castello
• The refined geological and geophysical studies in this test site will help in to better defining
the earthquake generation potential of ATF
Test site “Messina Strait”:
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•
The integration of ocean bottom seismographs (OBS) inside the Italian National Seismic
Network is one of the expected future development/ improvement.
• The test of an acoustic link to transmit OBS data in near real-time is important for the
seismic monitoring and for an eventual tsunami warning system to be installed in the
region.(see S3 project).
• Refined earthquakes locations in the Tyrrhenian and Ionian regions around Messina Strait
to define seismogenic structures
• The study of the deformation of the Calabro-peloritani arc using a multi-disciplinary
approach (geodetic deformation, fracture field defined through seismic anisotropy, seismic
strain evaluated by focal mechanisms) will furnish an interesting and detailed picture for the
ongoing scientific debate (see state of the art).
• Computation of the inter-seismic strain loading and possible deep geometry of the 1908
Messina fault from GPS and leveling data.
Test site “Irpinia fault system”:
• Development of methodologies for the monitoring and control of a seismic network through
real-time noise analysis and characterisation.
• Design of architecture and components of a real-time seismic monitoring infrastructure.
• 3D sub-surface velocity models integrating body and surface wave information, including
seismic discontinuities.
• Methods for the refined estimate of micro-earthquake source parameters (location,
magnitude, fault size and geometry).
• Characterisation and 4D monitoring of a system of active faults by the detailed analysis of
micro-earthquake activity (real-time and off-line methods)
• Implementation and test of a joint high frequency seismic and geodetic monitoring of active
fault systems
Moreover in the final report at the closing of S5 project we will synthesize the main conclusions and
output of the various research activities summing and comparing the existing and new information
and knowledge in the three areas. More over we decided to dedicate part of the final project report
to the evaluation of project impact for Civil Protection, in particular for defining the future needs for
research and monitoring activities.
3. State of the art
The three selected test sites in Project S5 are located all along the Italian peninsula. Each of them
belong to a peculiar seismotectonic setting where complex fault systems are responsible for past
moderate to large seismicity and therefore making these regions relatively high in seismic risk
potential. Within the framework of existing research projects new monitoring infrastructures and
geophysical experiments are being implemented and carried out in these areas.
The Alto Tiberina Fault (ATF) test site is inside the Northern Apennines, a portion of the mountain
belt where very frequent but moderate events occur, causing serious damages (i.e 1997 Umbria
Marche earthquake M=6). This large fault that extends for almost 60 kilometers in the NW-SE
direction North of Perugia (Central Italy), is an extensional structure dipping at low-angle
(∼15°)(Barchi et al, 1998). Low-angle normal faults have been recognized as important structures
in driving deformation, mainly based on geological (Lister e Davis, 1989) and geophysical studies
(Floyd et al., 2001) although their activity at low angle remains controversial due to the non-optimal
orientation in an Andersonian stress field. Recent seismological monitoring experiments showed
the presence of intense micro-seismic activity along a low-angle NE-dipping surface coinciding with
the geometry of the ATF as obtained from commercial seismic reflection lines (Chiaraluce et al.,
2007). Since 2006 five continuous GPS stations have been installed across the ATF with average
spacing of 7 kilometers, to measure the local velocity field and the strain behavior of this tectonic
structure and to explore the possibility to model the observed deformation with a low angle dipping
plane. Moreover, a specific project (AIRPLANE) financed by the Italian Research Ministry recently
started in 2007 with the aim of sharply improving the seismological and geodetic observational
resolution by both increasing the station density and the quality of the monitoring techniques. In the
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framework of S5, we will launch a program for long-term joint seismic (including borehole
observations) and geodetic monitoring of the southern part of the ATF. We emphasize the
importance of the seismic hazard assessment and its social impact in these poorly-known tectonic
structures located near densely populated areas (i.e. few tens of kilometers from Perugia).
The second selected test-site is the Messina Strait area, which is the sea channel dividing Italy
from Sicily. In 1908 this region was the locus of one of the largest event ever recorded in central
Mediterranean Mw= 7.1. The many studies done in this century agree in identifying a normal fault
striking NNE-SSW located inside the Strait but the precise location and dip of the fault is still debated
(Pino et al. 2000 and references therein). Even more controversial is the geodynamic framework in
which active extension in the Messina Strait occurs. The evolution of this sector of Eurasia –Africa
plate boundary is generally interpreted in terms of slow plates convergence in the N-S direction,
accompanied by the relatively fast subduction of the remnant of the ancient Tethis oceanic
lithosphere, with a roll-back kinematics (Faccenna et al 2001 and references therein). In its history
the subduction progressively reduced its lateral extent with the formation of arcs, like the Calabrian
arc identified by a clear Wadati-Benioff plane and limited by lateral tears. Various hypotheses are
considered on the role of the tears and on how they influence the crust and mantle motion
(Lucente et al 2006; Arniani et al 2007). At present, the kinematics of the crust are difficult to
reconcile with a rollback-subduction model, for the absence both of compressive crustal seismicity
on the Ionian side and of geodetic evidence of back arc spreading in the Tyrrhenian sea
(D'Agostino e Selvaggi 2004 and references therein). The deformation pattern observed in the
area from instrumental seismicity (Pondrelli et al 2004; Neri et al 2004 ) and GPS data (D'Agostino
e Selvaggi 2004) is complex; it shows that the collision between Africa and Eurasia is
accommodated North of Sicily along an E-W trending zone and that strong rotations are observed
near the Messina Strait. To help clarifying these issues the INGV promoted and financed a
research project “Messina 1908-2008” finalized to merge existing data and studies and to collect
new and more detailed seismological, geodetic historical and satellite observation in this area.
More than 20 permanent seismic stations and about 15 temporary stations, deployed at the end of
2007, are present in the area. A dense permanent geodetic network operate in the region and
several repeated geodetic surveys are available. In the frame of S5 project we propose to
additionally deploy five Ocean Bottom Seismometers (OBS) to integrate the on-land and off-shore
seismic monitoring system; to promote new geodetic campaign measurements; and finally to
develop and apply innovative methodologies to characterize the strain-field in the Messina Strait in
the framework of the Calabro-Peloritani arc. The assembled data-base analyzed with standard and
refined techniques will lead us to obtain expectably remarkable progresses in the knowledge of
the tectonic processes in the area.
The third selected test-site is the Irpinia fault system, which is located along the Southern
Apenninic belt. With more than 7 million of inhabitants, and a large number of industrial plants, the
Campania and Lucania regions in southern Italy, are zones of high seismic risk, due to a moderate
to large magnitude seismicity occurring on active normal fault systems in the Apenninic belt. The
1980, M=6.9 Irpinia earthquake, the most recent destructive earthquake to occur in the region,
caused more than 3000 causalities and major, widespread damage to buildings and infrastructure
throughout the region.
In the framework of an ongoing project financed by the Regional Department of Civil Protection,
the Center of Competence AMRA (Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risks) is
implementing and testing a prototype system for seismic early and post-event warning, based on a
dense, wide dynamic seismic network under installation in the Apenninic belt region (ISNet, Irpinia
Seismic Network) (Weber et al., 2008). The system architecture and operating principles of the
seismic network southern Italy, are grounded on innovative technological and methodological
aspects, related to the optimization of real-time data acquisition, processing and modeling.
On a wider spatial scale, other dense seismic, accelerometric and geodetic networks are operated
in this portion of southern Apennines, owned by INGV and Dipartimento della Protezione Civile,
with more than one hundred recording instruments deployed, most of them relying on modern
acquisition and transmission technologies. This favourable observational condition makes the
Irpinia test site as one of the highest instrumented seismic regions in Italy and an ideal site for
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experimenting new technologies and methodologies for seismic monitoring and imaging of active
fault systems.
In the framework of S5 project, based on the real-time and off-line analysis of noise and
microearthquake data collected by the ISNet and INGV networks we propose to develop and apply
innovative methodologies in the following research fields:
• Seismic noise analysis and Green Functions
Use of the random wavefield to retrieve images of the sub-soil through cross-correlation and
stacking of the signal recorded at several stations (Shapiro et al., 2005; Brenguier et al., 2007)
• Refined estimates of micro-earthquake source parameters
Retrieval of high resolution images of an active fault system through the accurate determination of
location, size and fault mechanisms of microearthquakes in the magnitude range 1<M<3 (Rowe et
al., 2002; Zhang and Thurber, 2003).
• Reflection seismology applied to earthquake data
Use of reflection tomography to infer depths and geometries of subsurface reflectors, and constrain
the velocity structure below the seismogenic zone (Zelt et al., 1996; Chávez-Pérez and Louie,
1998).
• High frequency GPS monitoring of active fault systems
Investigate the feasibility of high rate GPS monitoring of earthquake faults and near real-time
recording of co-seismic displacement (Blewitt et al., 2006)
The final aim is to investigate and determine the medium and earthquake source properties using
an advanced earthquake monitoring infrastructure which jointly use the high frequency seismic and
geodetic observation.
4.1 Organization and Management (Tasks, Workpackages and RU contribution)
The project is organized in 3 Tasks, that will be achieved through the development of research
activities coordinated in 14 specific Work-Packages.
Considering the geographical location of the selected test-sites and the peculiar research
objectives related to each experimental set-up, we decided to identify the project Tasks with the
chosen test-sites:
- Test site “Alto-Tiberina Fault”: High resolution imaging of a low-angle dipping fault zone
- Test site “Messina Strait”: Experimentation of integrated on-land and sea-shore seismic
monitoring
- Test site “Irpinia Fault System”: Refined estimation of medium and earthquake source
properties using an advanced seismic monitoring infrastructure
In order to achieve the task objectives, the needed deliverables have been identified with the
outcomes of consistent jobs (Work Packages) defined as the project basic objectives. This twolevels Work Breakdown Structure is reported in Figure 1. In Table 1 we describe the management
structure of the Research Units (UR) and how they contribute to the different Tasks. After Table 1
and Figure 1, we describe in more detail the structure of the Tasks reporting the selected WorkPackages with relative research objectives, activity and methodologies (Table 2).
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Figure 2 - Project Work Breakdown Structure
Table 1 - Project management Structure
RU 1
RU 2
RU 3
RU 4
RU 5
RU 6
Responsible: Responsible: Responsible: Responsible: Responsible: Responsible:
Task 1
Alto Tiberina
Fault
Task 2
Messina Strait
Task3
Irpinia Fault
Chiaraluce
Barchi
INGV
Perugia
University
X
Margheriti,
D’Anna
Neri
Avallone
Zollo
Messina
University
INGV
INGV
Napoli
University
X
X
X
X
X
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Table 2. Project structure, Principal investigators and Research topics
Task
WorkPackage PI
Research topic
Task 1. Test site “Alto-Tiberina Fault”
Chiaraluce,L., CNT-INGV
[email protected]
WP1.1 Di Stefano, CNT-INGV
[email protected]
WP1. 2 Improta, RM1-INGV
[email protected]
Automated seismic data analysis
A high density network including
borehole
observations
for
the
understanding of physical processes
which govern the earthquake generation
on low-angle dipping normal faults.
Task 2. Test site “Messina Strait”
Margheriti L., CNT-INGV
[email protected]
An on-land, off-shore integrated seismic
network for monitoring the region struck
by the M 7, 1908 Messina earthquake
and understanding the relationship
between present stress regime and
earthquake activity.
Task 3. Test site “Irpinia Fault
System”
Zollo A., UniNa
[email protected]
An
advanced,
real-time,
seismic
monitoring infrastructure for the detailed
imaging and characterization of a
complex normal fault system in southern
Apennines.
WP1.3 D’Agostino, RM1-INGV
[email protected]
WP1.4 Mirabella Universita’ di
Perugia [email protected]
WP1.5 Barchi Universita’ di
Perugia
[email protected]
WP2.1 D’Anna e Mangano CNTINGV
[email protected];[email protected]
WP2.2 Moretti , CNT-INGV
[email protected]
WP2.3 Piccinini RM1- INGV
[email protected]
WP2.4 Mattia, CT-INGV
[email protected]
WP2.5 Neri, Univ. Messina
[email protected]
WP3.1: Festa, UniNA
[email protected]
WP3.2: Satriano, UniNaAMRA scarl
[email protected]
WP3.3 Maercklin, UniNA
[email protected]
WP3.4: Avallone CNT-INGV
[email protected]
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Imaging the shallower portion of the
Tiber basin to optimize the installation of
borehole seismic sensors
Velocity and strain rate fields across
the fault from integration of regional
GPS networks.
Upper crustal structure and tectonic
evolution of ATF
Quaternary tectonics of the ATF
region
Sea Bottom Seismograph installation
and data transmission testing through
acoustic link
Integrated on-land and off-shore
seismic data bank and refined
earthquake location
Seismic anisotropy analysis aimed at
defining the present crustal
deformation regime
Strain field of Calabria and Peloritano
regions from GPS data acquisition
and modeling
Fault mechanisms and stress regime
orientations in the Messina strait.
Seismic noise analysis and Green
Functions
Refined estimates of microearthquake source parameters
Reflection/transmission tomography
from micro-earthquake data
High rate GPS for the monitoring of
active seismic fault systems in
southern Apennines
Task 1 - Test site: “Alto Tiberina Fault (ATF)”.
Responsible: Lauro Chiaraluce
In this test site is under-construction (AIRPLANE project)a very dense seismic network, consisting
of 20 seismic stations with an average spacing between stations of 6-8 km. In addition 3 boreholes
(200m deep) equipped with three component seismometers will be deployed. The resolution of the
geodetic observation will be improved by deploying 7 continuous GPS stations to integrate the
existing network. Through this project we will monitor the seismicity and active deformation in the
southern part of the ATF for a minimum of three years.
Capitalizing on this monitoring network, the S5 project, will be focused on performing a series of
multidisciplinary studies: geological seismological and geodetic, these will have the duty to
complement and integrate the AIPLANE project in terms of produced dataset, approach and
knowledge.
The refined geological and geophysical studies in this test site beyond their scientific significance
will help to better define earthquake generation potential of ATF
WP1.1: Building procedures to automatically manage and analyze seismic data.
Responsible: Raffaele Di Stefano, INGV - CNT
Objectives
The aim of this working group is to build a procedure to semi-automatically manage and analyze a
seismic data stream, continuously recorded by several seismic stations connected to different
acquisition systems. The software packages will automatically determine arrival times and
polarities of the P- and S-phases. By developing such procedure we will minimize the time needed
to analyze data and to retrieve information on the target area. The retrieved dataset will be of high
quality and intrinsically homogeneous due to the automated estimation of the reading errors,
achieved through the auto-calibration of the picking system. The data retrieved will allow the
study, almost in real-time, of seismicity distribution, seismic rate, b-value, Vp/Vs ratio to indirectly
monitor fluid pressure changes, focal mechanisms and to acquire high-resolution images of the 3D
seismic velocity structure. The whole procedure will be designed to be a standard for the analysis
of future seismic field experiments, independently from the target site and will be applied off-line on
the Task2 Messina strait data set.
Activities
The procedure will be modular. Distinct software packages will be written afresh and/or integrated
to manage the separate steps of the data stream analysis and elaboration. Package 1: Seismic
signal identification and association (seismic events definition); Package 2: Automatic Picking
System and draft location; Package 3: high precision location; Package 4: data elaboration;
Package 5: automatic results update. The different packages will be independently written and
tested by different working groups.
Methodologies
Firstly, the procedure will have to identify the seismic signals related to P and S wavelets, by
analyzing the variation of the STA/LTA ratio on each station data stream. This will determine the
occurrence of seismic events based on an a-priori defined coincidence threshold (number of
stations which recorded the event). Then, the procedure will precisely determine the arrival time of
P and S onsets, related error estimation, P onsets polarity and the maximum amplitude for the
magnitude calculation (ML). To get such high quality information we will implement the
MannekenPix software package (MPX), already in use at INGV, to also determine polarities, pick S
and calculate the maximum amplitude. By using the upgraded MPX we will automatically obtain,
for both P and S picks, an estimation of the reading quality through an advanced statistic study of
specific parameters mainly derived from the spectral analysis of the seismic signal and noise
around the onsets. The weighting algorithm will be calibrated based on the comparison with a
representative subset of high quality manual pickings. MPX will produce a good quality event
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location (1st location level) with standard location methods. The weighted P and S readings, the
ML, and the locations by MPX, will be used to create maps of seismicity distribution, b-value, focal
mechanisms, Vp/Vs ratio and to automatically update them. MPX initial locations will be also used
to gain high precision earthquake locations through both linear and non linear location procedures.
WP1.2: Imaging the shallower portion of the Tiber basin to optimize drilling location.
Responsible: Luigi Improta, INGV - Roma1
Objectives
The goal of WP 1.2 is to obtain shallow imaging of the Tiber basin and ATF (down to 500-1000 m
depth) by high-resolution (HR) and very high-resolution (VHR) seismic profiling across the western
border of the basin. Seismic survey is aimed at achieving two main targets. First, it would yield
sub-surface information required to optimize drilling location and operation in the framework of the
Project AIRPLANE. Second, HR and VHR reflectivity and tomographic images will fill the gap
existing between geological field data and seismic commercial profiles. This would allow
understanding of how the westernmost splays of the ATF imaged at depth (> 1-2 km) by oil the
exploration data connect to the surface, and would provide valuable information on the Quaternary
basin evolution and recent faulting activity. Moreover, HR imaging will provide useful constraints to
re-interpret available commercial profiles.
Activities
Research activity includes six steps: (a) selection of the survey sites according to the local logistic
and to previous information on the crustal structure. This activity will be carried out in collaboration
with researchers of Perugia University (WP1.4-1.5). (b) Acquisition of two HR and VHR profiles
2000 and 200-300 m long, respectively. (c) First-arrival traveltime picking and tomographic
inversion. (d) CDP-processing of reflection data. (e) Combined interpretation of HR and VHR Vp
models and stack sections. (f) Re-interpretation of commercial profiles constrained by results of the
new seismic survey.
Methodologies
Seismic data will be collected with non conventional multi-fold wide-aperture geometry. A multichannel acquisition device (216-channels) will record dense shots provided by a vibroseis (IVI
Minivib) (HR data) and by a buffalo-gun (VHR data) source. Multi-scale reflectivity images will be
obtained by CDP-processing of HR and VHR reflection data through PROMAX routines. Stack
sections will be complemented by Vp images obtained by first-arrival tomography. This integration
allows the enhancement of geological interpretation and the improvement of reflection imaging by
using the tomographic velocity field in the CDP-processing. Both the new stack sections and
available commercial profiles will be interpreted by industry software (LandMark-Seiswork).
WP1.3: Velocity and strain rate fields from integration of regional GPS networks.
Responsible: Nicola D’Agostino, INGV- Roma1
Objectives
The aim of this working package is to integrate GPS data from regional GPS networks mainly
developed for real-time positioning applications. In the Umbria Marche regions the Department of
Civil Engineering of the University of Perugia have developed since 2005 the Labtopo GPS
networks, which consist of about 20 continuous GPS stations (Prof. F. Radicioni). In this project we
collaborate with the geodetic WP of the Perugia UR and integrate the daily rinex files of the
Labtopo GPS network with the other CGPS sites coming from the INGV GPS (RING) and other
GPS networks in a single processing scheme to obtain a homogeneous velocity field in terms of
data processing and reference frame alignment. From this velocity field we will derive the
distribution of the tectonic strain rate and the rate of strain accumulation of known active faults. We
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emphasize that this products constitute an essential component for an improved seismic hazard
assessment.
Activities
The activities of this WP can be subdivided into the following targets
1) Data collection and archiving. In collaboration with the Perugia UR we will collect all of the
available data from the Labtopo GPS stations and archive in the central archiving facility in Rome.
2) Data processing with GIPSY-OASIS II and analysis of the time series
3) Analysis of the GPS velocity field and derived products (strain rate, geodetic moment rate).
Methodologies
The raw daily GPS rinex files from the Labtopo network will be processed in an homogeneous
processing scheme with the other GPS data coming from the RING and other public available GPS
networks for a total amount of circa 350 GPS sites located in the Africa-Eurasia plate boundary
and in the stable parts of the Nubia and Eurasian plates. We will use the GIPSY-OASIS software
together with precise orbits and clock-files from the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The daily
positions time series will allow accurate estimates of the velocities and the associated
uncertainties.
WP1.4: Upper crust structure and tectonic evolution of the ATF
Responsible: Francesco Mirabella, University of Perugia
Objectives
This WP will be focussed on the subsurface setting of the Tiber Valley through the
interpretation of commercial seismic sections. The main goal is to reconstruct in detail the
geometry of the Altotiberina fault, its splays and of the most significant stratigraphic markers.
Among these, particular attention will be paid to the top of the basement, which can affect the
distribution of the seismicity.
Activities
Concerning the subsurface data, the available seismic sections will be accurately
reinterpreted, calibrated with the boreholes and depth converted on the basis of the most
accurate and realistic velocity model. The geological sections will be balanced with special
emphasis to the balancing of the extensional structures with the aim of also evaluating the
long-term slip-rates. On the basis of the transversal sections, a longitudinal section will be
built up.
Starting from the geological sections, isobath maps of the Altotiberina fault, of its splays and
of the top of the basement will be constructed.
In the final part of the project, through the interaction with the other UR, a comparison will
also be made between:
-long-term slip-rates along the faults, acquired by surface geological data and by the
balancing of the subsurface geological sections;
-subsidence and uplift rates, obtained from the surface geology and geomorphology;
-short-term movements (from GPS).
Ultimately a critical analysis of the subsurface velocity models (from reflection and refraction
seismics, boreholes, passive seismic tomography) will be made.
Methodologies
-Geological interpretation of seismic sections;
-Depth conversion of the interpreted seismic sections;
-Balancing of the geological sections
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WP1.5: Tectonic evolution of the Tiber valley between Perugia and Città di Castello
Responsible: Massimiliano R. Barchi, University of Perugia
Objectives
This WP will be focussed on the definition of the geological and geomorphological evolution of the
Tiber valley from Perugia to Città di Castello providing a new cartography drawn with
homogeneous criteria.
Activities
The outcropping Plio-Quaternary deposits in the high Tiber valley and the faults cutting these
sediments will be mapped. During the fieldwork, the most significant stratigraphic sections will be
analysed. The interpretation of aerial photographs will provide a support for both the geological and
geomorphological map and for the recent and active tectonics indicators. Automatic procedures of
DEM analysis will also be applied to identify active tectonic markers. The gathered and
interpreted data will be summarized in a scheme of the stratigraphic relationships of the PlioQuaternary successions and geological and geomorphological map at the the scale 1:100.000.
The data will also be used in order to estimate the long-term uplift/subsidence rate (between 1 and
1000 kyrs).
Methodologies
-Geological and geomorphological mapping;
-Aerial photographs interpretation;
-Automatic and semi-automatic digital terrain models analysis
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Task 2. Test site “Messina Strait”
Experimentation of integrated on-land and sea-shore monitoring to understand the
strain-field in the Messina Strait in the framework of the Calabro-Peloritani arc
Responsible: Lucia Margheriti CNT-INGV
With the reprise, this year, of the centennial of the 1908 extensional earthquake (Mw=7.1), INGV
has promoted and financed a research project (“Messina 1908-2008”) whose aim is to merge
existing geophysical data and studies to clarify the regional kinematics in which the extension
deformation processes occur in the Messina Strait ( http://www.cnt.ingv.it/Messina1908-2008 ).
More than 20 permanent seismic stations and about 15 temporary stations, deployed at the end of
2007, are present in the area. A dense permanent geodetic network operate in the region and
several repeated geodetic surveys are available. The assembled data-base, that will be analyzed
with standard and refined techniques, is expected to provide us with remarkable improvements in
the knowledge of geodynamic processes presently occurring in the area.
As a complementary research to the “Messina 1908-2008” project, in S5 project, we propose to
deploy five Ocean Bottom Seismometers (OBS) that will integrate the on-land and off-shore
seismic monitoring system; to promote new geodetic campaign measurements; and finally to
develop and apply innovative methodologies to characterize the strain-field in the Messina Strait in
the framework of the Calabro-Peloritani arc.
WP2.1 Ocean Bottom Seismographs deployment and test
Responsible: Giuseppe D’Anna – Giorgio Mangano, INGV- CNT
Objectives
Deployment of 5 Ocean Bottom seismometers to integrate the on land seismic network. These
OBS are produced by INGV Gibilmanna Observatory and had been tested only twice: the
prototype was deployed in the Tyrrhenian sea near the Marsili spreading centre and very recently
three OBS were deployed in the Ionian sea, two of them were just recovered. The production of
Italian OBS opens new frontiers to Italian seismologist and make possible an important marine
development of the National Seismic Network. Up to now our OBS are stand-alone but during the
Messina deployment we would like to test an acoustic link to recover data without recovering the
instruments from the sea floor.
Activities
In this project we would like to have OBS instruments deployed for a total of about 12/18 months
with a first deployment and recovery of the five OBS in selected site with proper bathymetric
properties, in the first year and a re-deployment of instruments in the second year. During the
second deployment the acoustic link will be tested. Two of these OBS were just recovered from the
Ionian sea and the data recorded will be used to become confident in the analysis of OBS signals.
The continuous recordings from OBS seismometers will be integrated in the project data archive.
Methodologies
To deploy and recover the marine seismographs an appropriate ship will be rented twice; each
cruise will last about two-three days. OBS are equipped with sensors Trillium 120 sec., and
hydrophone (DPG band pass 160 s -2Hz), power supply, double recovery system and acquisition
system on compact flash of 24 GB.
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WP2.2 Integrated seismic data bank and refined earthquake location to define
seismogenetic structures
Responsible: Milena Moretti , INGV-CNT
Objectives
Main goal of this working package is the creation of a waveform archive that will collect, in a
uniform format, recordings of all the available seismic stations present in the region. It will be the
first example of complete integration of permanent networks (National Seismic Network; Peloritani
Local network), temporary deployments (both mobile network from INGV CNT and INGV CT) and
OBS data, that hopefully will become a standard for INGV seismic experiment. We will get refined
location to define seismogenic structures inside the Messina Strait and in the surrounding region
especially in the Tyrrhenian and Ionian sea. We will evaluate the improvement introduced by the
use of OBS on the seismic detection and on earthquakes location.
Activities
To build the archive we should convert all the continuous seismic recordings (permanent stations,
temporary stations and OBS) in a uniform format. To archive all the permanent networks we need
to open a new real-time link between INGV CNT (Rome) and INGV Catania to let enter into the
data-base the data of the local network of Peloritani. Temporary stations and OBS data are
integrated with real time data every time they are collected.
Starting from these continuous recordings of the integrated network a semiautomatic procedure will
define the triggers and the P and S arrivals (this procedure is implemented in Task 1) to locate the
seismicity using both conventional and refined techniques. The microseismicity recorded will
delineate the presence of seismogenic structures in the study area which will help in understanding
the seismotectonics of the area.
Methodologies
To build the archive we will take advantage of personnel, structures and experience of the
National Seismic Network run by INGV. We are developing standard procedure to convert all the
gathered data in SEED format and to build a common open data-base for the researches; this will
become a standard for experiments done using INGV portable stations. To detect triggers and to
pick phases we are going to use procedures developed in the past year (funding DPC 2004-2006)
and implemented in Task1 WP1. The earthquakes will be located using standard, doubledifferences techniques, in collaboration with WP 2.5 (U.R. Messina University); special attention
will have doublets and repeated earthquakes, which are important for the WP2.3 analysis.
WP2.3 Seismic anisotropy
Responsible: Davide Piccinini, INGV-Roma1
Objectives
The study of seismic anisotropy in the crust and uppermost mantle help defining the deformation
field of the medium sampled by the seismic waves. In particular the anisotropic parameters in the
crust individuate the fracture field geometries connected with the active stress field. If anisotropy is
caused by the presence of fluid-saturated microcracks or fractures, aligned or opened by the active
stress field, the S waves polarized parallel to the direction of maximum horizontal stress are faster
than the one polarized in the orthogonal direction, as suggest by the extensive-dilatancy anisotropy
model (EDA), and the difference in velocity is a measure of the intensity and/or thickness of the
fracture field.
Among the various studies (definition of velocity and attenuation structure; definition of seismic
discontinuities etc.) that will be done on the databank, produced by WP2.2, we decide to include
the study of seismic anisotropy in this project because together with the evaluation of focal
mechanisms (WP 2.5) could contribute to define, from a seismological point of view, the strain field
of the region. Our objective is to develop a semi-automatic code able to evaluate the anisotropy of
S waves and to apply it to the crustal earthquakes located by WP2.2 for characterizing the
deformation and fracture field of the crust. To understand if the anisotropic parameters can change
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in time and are sensible to variations of stress and/or fluid pressure changes, we want to study
anisotropic parameters of repeated earthquakes.
Activities
To estimate the anisotropic parameters in the crust we will investigate shear wave splitting
phenomena (the analog of birefringence in optics). We want to develop an automatic analysis code
which choose the portion of the signal to be studied staring from the S wave picking and evaluate
the anisotropic parameters. Different techniques for the shear wave splitting analysis developed by
the different researchers (INGV-RM1,INGV-OV-NA, INGV-CNT, INGV-BO) will be used on a subset of events and the results will be compared to define the best method for an automatic
evaluation of the anisotropy. Special attention will be done in the analysis of repeated
earthquakes, frequents in the area, to understand if temporal variations of anisotropic parameters
are detectable. The resulting code will be applied on a large number of earthquake to define the
strength and the orientation of the fracture field in the different areas and their relationship with the
stress field defined by focal mechanisms, the code will be applied also on the data acquired in
Task1 ATF.
Methodologies
Seismic anisotropy is an almost ubiquitous property of the earth, the shear wave splitting is the
most unambiguous indicator of anisotropy but the automatic estimation of the splitting parameters
presents difficulties because the effect of the anisotropy on the seismogram is a second order
effect not very easily detectable. We will compare different codes developed under MatLab which
use both covariance matrix decomposition and cross-correlation techniques to estimate the
anisotropic parameters of “fast direction” and of “delay time”. The resulting code will be applied and
automatic evaluation of anisotropy will be computed on the analyzable earthquakes.
WP2.4 Ground deformation pattern of the Calabro-Peloritani area and the Messina Straits
from GPS networks and terrestrial data
Responsible: Mario Mattia, INGV- CT
Objectives
The relationships between mechanisms/mode of faulting and the seismic release are the basis for
the interpretation of the deformation acting in the Messina Strait. Geodetic measurements are a
powerful tool that can contribute to clarify many aspects of this issue. In this framework the
analysis of triangulation data collected by IGM since 1970 and the analysis of GPS data collected
since 1994 will permit an estimates of the strain rates in the Messina Strait and of the interseismic
tectonic loading on the fault responsible for the 1908 Messina earthquake
Activities
Since the past century, many good quality geodetic data have been collected and one of the aim of
this proposal is the reconstruction and classification of this huge heritage of data. Moreover a new
field survey that possibly unify different networks measured in these last years will be planned and
realized. Velocity fields and strain-rate patterns will be compared with seismological and geological
data available for the investigated area in order to better understand the complex geodynamic
setting of this area.
Methodologies
All available data, coming both from periodical and continuous GPS stations will be processed
through the GAMIT/GLOBK software packages. We aim to use the horizontal velocities obtained
from the combination of permanent and non-permanent GPS data to study the kinematics of the
Sicily-Calabria domain. Inter-seismic deformation can be studied from the analysis of surface
velocity gradients by adopting relatively simple dislocation models. Finally we propose a new
approach to the models that have been obtained by inversion of leveling data, recorded before and
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after the earthquake (Lo Perfido, 1909 using a numerical approach, the Finite Element Method
(FEM)).
WP2.5 Fault mechanisms and tectonic stress regime in the Messina strait
Responsible: Giancarlo Neri, Università di Messina
Objectives
The aim of this WP is the analysis of the earthquake focal mechanisms and of the seismogenic
stress and seismic strain fields in the Messina Straits area. The analysis will regard both the data
coming from the most recent and actual acquisition, and the information collected during the last
twenty years by the local and national permanent seismic networks. The new results will lead us to
obtain expectably remarkable progresses in the knowledge of tectonic stress accumulation
mechanisms and consequent processes of seismogenic faulting in the area of our interest.
Activities
Focal mechanism computation imposes, as preliminary step, accurate enough earthquake
locations. The cooperation with the other RUs will allow us to optimize earthquake location
information needed for focal mechanism computations. We will use for investigations the
recordings by the permanent seismometric networks operating in the region, as well as the
recordings from the OBS and on-shore temporary stations installed in the framework of the
Messina Project 1908-2008. The obtained focal solutions will be integrated with the data available
in the official databases and in the major literature (Pondrelli et al., 2006, EMMA database), both
for critical comparison between results coming from application of different techniques, and for
creation of a new FM database with “weighted” data representing un updated catalogue in terms of
quantity and quality of solutions reported, particularly in the domain of medium-low magnitudes.
The best quality focal mechanisms (errors < 20°) will be used for stress and strain tensor
computations through methods widely tested. We expect, in particular, to better delineate the local
stress domains detected in the region. Refining of the seismogenic stress model in the Messina
Straits area will allow us to obtain useful information about dynamic processes in one of the areas
with the highest seismic risk in the Mediterranean region, a piece of knowledge basic for
understanding seismic energy accumulation and release mechanisms.
Methodologies
The focal mechanism computation will be performed both by traditional techniques based on use of
P-onset polarities (Reasenberg and Oppenheimer, 1985) and by methods based on seismic
waveform inversion (Zhu and Helmberger, 1996; Zhu et al., 2006; Dreger and Helmberger, 1993).
In particular, the “cut and paste” method by Zhu and Helmberger (1996) and Zhu et al. (2006) is
based on inversion of waveforms recorded by broadband stations. The seismograms are
subdivided into Pln and surface wave segments to be inverted for the best moment tensor by a
global grid search. Time shifts between synthetics and observations are allowed in order to reduce
dependence of the solution on the assumed velocity model and on possible earthquake
mislocations. We expect that this method, successfully applied also in the case of earthquakes with
magnitude lower than 3 in other regions (Zhu et al., 2006), may furnish good-quality solutions in
the Messina Straits area in a magnitude range (2.5-4) non properly represented in the RCMT
catalogue and where the solutions estimated from P-onset polarities are often poorly constrained.
The focal mechanisms will be used for stress and strain field computations.
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Task 3. Test site “Irpinia” An advanced, real-time, seismic monitoring infrastructure
for the detailed imaging and characterization of a complex normal fault system in
southern Apennines
Responsible: Aldo Zollo, Università di Napoli “Federico II”
This test-site offers the unique scientific opportunity of analysing in near real-time massive, highquality microearthquake data collected from a dense and wide distributed seismometric,
accelerometric and geodetic networks owned by AMRA, INGV and Department of Civil Protection.
In particular, the ISNet network implemented by AMRA for early warning experimentation is
designed and operates according to innovative technological and methodological aspects, related
to the optimization of real-time data acquisition, processing and modelling.
Task 3 is mainly focussed on the development and application of real-time and off-line analyses of
noise, microearthquake and high-rate GPS data collected by the ISNet and INGV networks.
In particular it will be investigated the robustness and the properties of the Green functions
extracted from cross-correlation of data recorded by the seismic network ISNet. Techniques for
dispersion curve analysis and modelling will be developed by extending standard techniques to
high frequencies. High resolution images of the Irpinia active fault system will be derived through
the accurate determination of location, size and fault mechanisms of microearthquakes in the
magnitude range 1<M<3. Reflection seismology techniques will be developed and applied to
micro-earthquake data with the aim to improve the images of crustal P- and S-velocities and
subsurface discontinuities beneath the test-site. Finally, we will perform experiments to investigate
the feasibility of high rate GPS monitoring of earthquake faults and near real-time recording of coseismic displacement.
WP3.1 Seismic noise analysis and Green Functions
Responsible: Gaetano Festa, Università di Napoli “Federico II”
Objectives
The main objective of this workpackage is the investigation of the robustness and the properties of
the Green functions extracted from cross-correlation of data recorded by the seismic network
ISNet. The network is equipped with 5 broad-band seismometers and 20 short-period
velocimeters, with central frequency of 1Hz. The average distance between the stations is 10 km at
the center of the network and 20 km for the stations located on the outskirts. The first task will be
the stability analysis of the noise at periods shorter than 2s and the extension of the technique at
high frequency. The derived S velocity models, will be compared with the P tomographic models
derived by passive seismic analysis.
Activities
Ambient noise data will be collected for the single station and gathered in one day blocks. After
filtering data in several frequency ranges and performing a 1 bit normalization, they will be crosscorrelated with data coming from other stations, to build up a real-time stack. A dispersion analysis
on the Green function database will provide the trend of the group velocity as a function of the
frequency. The dispersion curves will be inverted with the Hermann algorithm (Herrmann and AlEqabi, 1991), to achieve a tomographic image below the ISNet network.
The technique will be initially applied to the data recorded by the broad-band seismometers. In a
second step, we will investigate the possibility to extend the cross-correlation to the data from short
period seismometers. The Green function database will be initially built up on a stack of 6 months
cross-correlation traces, then the resolution will be increased with the following records.
Methodologies
- Real Time noise data management, archiving and automatic preliminary processing
- Methods for noise processing and stacking analysis
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-
Method for dispersion curve analysis and estimation
Method for tomographic inversion of surface waves
WP3.2 Refined estimates of micro-earthquake source parameters
Responsible: Claudio Satriano, Università di Napoli Federico II and AMRA scarl
Objectives
The main objective of this workpackage is the achievement of high resolution images of the Irpinia
active fault system through the accurate determination of location, size and fault mechanisms of
microearthquakes in the magnitude range 1<M<3.
As concerns the earthquake location, refined re-picking techniques will be implemented based on
massive waveform cross-correlation while source parameters are estimated by non-linear inversion
of displacement spectra.
Activities
In the first part of this work package, we will analyze a large dataset of earthquakes recorded at the
Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet) and the surrounding INGV stations during last 3 years. This data
set will be integrated with new events recorded during the project duration. The original dataset
consists of more than 400 events (1<Mw<3) which have been recently hand-picked. These phases
will be quantitatively reviewed through cross-correlation techniques. The resulting refined picks will
be used to determine both an accurate velocity model for the Irpinia region and an improved image
of the fault system through precise relocation.
The obtained locations will be used to estimate source parameters by the automated, non-linear
inversion of P- and S-wave displacement spectra. Assuming an omega-square source model, the
Downhill simplex optimization technique is used to retrieve the low frequency spectral level, corner
frequency and attenuation quality factor. A preliminary investigation of attenuation and site
amplification effects is needed in order to correct for path/site effects the spectral shapes.
Methodologies
- Real-Time and off-line earthquake data management, archiving and preliminary processing
(automatic picking, event binding, spectral analysis)
- Method for refined re-picking based on waveform cross-correlation
- Method for double-difference tomography and earthquake re-location
- Method for source parameter estimation by non-linear inversion of displacement spectra
WP3.3 Reflection seismology applied to micro-earthquake data
Responsible: Nils Maercklin, Università di Napoli “Federico II”
Objectives
The aim of this study is to image crustal P- and S-velocities, and subsurface discontinuities
beneath the ISNet seismic network using local earthquake data recorded by this network and
possibly other stations in the area. Of interest are subhorizontal discontinuities such as the
boundary between the seismic basement and the sedimentary cover, and also steeply-dipping
reflectors that may be related to faults. The final model may lead to more accurate event locations
and may assist in the interpretation of secondary phases detected in seismograms of future
events. Another aspect of this study is the development of a reflection processing scheme for local
earthquake data.
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Activities
The first step in this study is to select appropriate waveform data from the available ISNet
database, i.e. recordings of well-located events with a high signal-to-noise ratio and preferably a
short, impulsive source signal. Then the selected traces will be corrected for the different origin
times to facilitate the application of standard reflection seismic processing techniques and the
gathering of traces into e.g. common reflection point (CRP) gathers. Additionally, the source time
functions of different events must be equalized e.g. by deconvolution or at least approximately by a
polarity correction. The most challenging task of this study is the identification and phase
association of reflected and converted arrivals in the seismograms. As in previous investigations,
this task involves move-out correction with subsequent stacking or waveform coherency analysis
as well as visual inspection of CRP gathers. Since the stations are equipped with three-component
sensors, polarization analyses can provide additional information on the wave type, e.g. an arriving
P-wave would show a dominant polarization in vertical direction. In addition, seismic migration will
support the identification of reflected phases, because it can provide a direct image of reflecting
zones in the subsurface.
Once major reflected phases (PP, PS, or SS) are identified, their travel times will be picked
manually, accompanied by 1-D kinematics ray tracing for quality control and a consistent
association of travel times and their corresponding reflectors. Finally, the picked reflection and
conversion travel times shall be inverted for a 3-D tomographic interface model below the study
region. Depending on the number and spatial distribution of travel time picks, a joint inversion of
reflection and first-arrival travel times for a unified velocity model may be feasible.
Methodologies
- Earthquake data gathering and standard seismic reflection processing (filtering, trace
equalization, move-out and stack analysis)
- Methods for identification and picking of reflection events on earthquake data seismic sections
(polarization analysis, beam forming techniques)
- Method for kinematic ray modelling of reflected/converted phase travel times in a 3D medium
- Method for linearized inversion of reflected/converted phase travel times to infer 3D
tomographic and interface models of the structure beneath the ISNet network.
WP3.4 High rate GPS for monitoring active seismic faults
Responsible: Antonio Avallone, CNT-INGV
Objectives
The general aim of the RING network is not only devoted to understand long-term deformation in
the Eurasia and Africa plate boundary, but also, more locally, to detect strain accumulation on
single faults or faulting structures. For this types of studies, the 30s sampling rate is enough. GPS
offers several advantages over seismic instrumentation. Estimation of earthquake-generated coseismic offsets and strain fields requires measurement of ground displacements. The processing
required to estimate this from seismic data inherently enhances noise. In GPS, displacements are
the basic measurement and, thus, estimates do not suffer from this noise source. In addition,
seismic wave amplitudes vary over many orders of magnitude and, although the dynamic ranges of
the best seismometers can capture most of these, many saturate for the largest, and most
interesting, earthquakes. The accuracy of GPS data actually improves as the magnitude increases
and there is no saturation.
High-rate GPS: The first goal of this working package concerns the beginning of the acquisition
and storage of the HRGPS data acquired at the RING permanent GPS stations located around the
Irpinia test area. Those data will be processed by using a geodetic-quality software. The main goal
of this working package is represented by the development of a procedure which allows the
computation of the mean displacement up to a few tens of minutes after the occurrence of an
earthquake. This procedure will be tested with appropriate scenarios to evaluate the sensibility of
the HRGPS to detect low to moderate earthquakes signal associated with the arrival seismic
waves.
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Activities
High-rate GPS acquisition: The scientific interest for the potential of the GPS seismology will allow
an increasing number of continuous GPS stations acquiring with 1-Hz sampling rate. The Irpinia
represents one of the test site for the HRGPS data acquisition, transmission and storage.
High-rate GPS processing: The 1-Hz GPS data acquired at the continuous GPS sites in the Irpinia
test sites will be processed by using Gipsy software, a noncommercial geodetic-quality software
developed at JPL (Zumberge et al., 1997), and by using the ambiguity resolution approach
described by Blewitt et al. (1989, 2006a).
High-rate GPS procedure for alert systems: One of the goal of this project deals with the
development of a procedure to compute the mean displacement related to the occurrence of the an
earthquake (Blewitt et al., 2006b).
Analysis of earthquake detection thresholds: We will apply the developed procedure to make some
scenarios, by modeling several earthquake with different magnitudes values, in order to determine
the potential and the capability for a dense GPS network to detect low to moderate earthquakes
waveforms.
Methodology
High-rate GPS: Within the framework of this project, we propose to acquire at 1-Hz sampling rate
the data of the RING CGPS stations within the Irpinia test site. These high-rate GPS data will be
processed, by using Gipsy software, in a few minutes moving time windows to determine the GPS
site position time series and then to enhance possible mean displacements related to the
occurrence of an earthquake. The static offsets carried out in this way will then be used to rapidly
model the earthquake and, then, to contribute effectively to the computation of a realistic
magnitude moment Mw and source parameters. Using this method, Blewitt et al. (2006b) showed,
for the case of Sumatra Mw=9.2-9.3 event, that the earthquake’s true size and tsunami potential
could have been determined by using GPS data to only 15 minutes after the earthquake initiation,
by tracking the mean displacement of the Earth’s surface associated with the arrival seismic
waves. By implementing the GPS displacement method as an operational real-time system, GPS
could be incorporated into earthquake warning systems. Even if the Blewitt et al. (2006b) study
concerned such a big earthquake, we propose to apply this method to more moderate seismogenic
structures monitored by a dense GPS network.
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Geophys. Res., 112, B10310, doi:10.1029/2007JB005015.
Collettini, C., and R. H. Sibson (2001), Normal Faults Normal Friction? Geology, 29, 927-930.
D’Agostino, N., and G. Selvaggi (2004), Crustal motion along the Eurasia-Nubia plate boundary in the
Calabrian Arc and Sicily and active extension in the Messina Straits from GPS measurements, J.
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Brenguier F., N. M. Shapiro, M. Campillo, A. Nercessian, and V. Ferrazzini (2007). 3-D surface wave
tomography of the Piton de la Fournaise volcano using seismic noise correlations: Geophys. Res.
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Sanchez-Sesma F. J. and M. Campillo (2006). Retrieval of the Green's Function from Cross
Correlation: The Canonical Elastic Problem. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 96, 1182-1191.
Faccenna, C., T. W. Becker, F. P. Lucente, L. Jolivet, and F. Rossetti (2001), History of subduction and
back-arc extension in the central Mediterranean, Geophys. J. Int., 145, 809–820.
Floyd, J.S., J. C. Mutter, A. M. Goodliffe, and B. Taylor (2001), Evidence for fault weakness and fluid
flow within active low-angle normal fault, Science, 411, 779-783.
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Helens, Washington, J. Geophys. Res.92, 10,223–10,236
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relocation beneath the south flank of Kilauea, J. Geophys. Res.99, 15,375–15,386.
Herrmann R. B. and G. Al-Eqabi (1991). Surface waves: Inversion for shear wave velocity, in Shear
Waves in Marine Sediments, edited by J. M. Hovem, M. D. Richardson, and R. D. Stoll, pp. 545–
556, Springer, NewYork.
Lister, G. S., and G. A. Davis (1989), The origin of metamorphic core complexes and detachment
faults formed during Tertiary continental extension in the northern Colorado River region, USA. J.
Struct. Geol., 11, 65-93.
Loperfido, A., Livellazione geometrica di precisione eseguita dall’Istituto Geografico Militare sulla costa
orientale della Sicilia, da Messina a Catania, a Gesso ed a Faro Peloro e sulla costa occidentale
della Calabria da Gioia Tauro a Melito Porto Salvo, incarico, pp. 131 – 169, Minist. dell’Agric., Ind. e
Commer., Rel. Comm., Rome, Italy, 1909.
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the slab through the western-central Mediterranean mantle" EPSL 241 517-529.
Shapiro N. M., M. Campillo, L. Stehly, and M. H. Ritzwoller (2005), High resolution surface-wave
tomography from ambient seismic noise: Science, 307, 1615–1618.
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2000.
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171/191
7. Deliverables
ID
Deliverables
Task
Workpackage
responsible
D1
Standard
modular
automatic
procedures for the management and
analysis of a continuous seismic data
stream
HR and VHR stack sections and Vp
images of the Tiber basin (500-1000
m deep) and of the shallow fault zones
(100-150 m deep) belonging to
western splays of the ATF.
Definition of an optimal site for a 200
m deep drilling in the Tiber basin to
install borehole seismometers
Time series of GPS stations at ATF
test site in the ITRF2005 reference
frame. GPS velocity field in the
ITRF2005 and Eurasian reference
frames.
Map of strain rate and geodetic
moment rate at ATF test site
Balanced geological sections, derived
from depth converted seismic profiles
at ATF test site
Isobath maps of the top basement
reflector; isobath map of the ATF
Geological and geomorphological map
of the High Tiber Valley from Perugia
to Città di Castello
Test of marine seismic deployment
and integration of OBS data with on
land data.
Test of the acoustic link to get quasireal time data from OBS stations
Integrated data bank of continuous
recordings for the period October
2007-October 2009 at the Messina
strait test-site
1
1.1
1
1.2
1
1.2
D2
D3
D4
D5
D6
D7
D8
D9
D10
D11
D12
Immediate Ready
impact
and
relevance
for DPC
End of the
project
End of the
project
X
1
1.3
1
1.3
1
1.4
End of the
project
X
X
End of the
project
Phase II
Semester
3
End of the
project
End of the
project
X
End of the
project
X
1
1.4
1
1.5
2
2
2.1
2.1
X
2
Refined earthquakes locations in the 2
Tyrrhenian and Ionian regions around
Messina Strait to define seismogenic
structures
172/191
End of the
project
2.2
X
2.2
X
End of the
project
Preliminary
databank
for the end
of Phase I
Definitive
for the end
of
the
project
Preliminary
databank
for the end
of Phase I
Definitive
for the end
of
the
project
D13
D14
D15
D16
D17
D18
D19
D20
D21
D22
D23
An automatic code for the evaluation
of shear wave splitting parameters;
orientation and strength of the fracture
field in the Messina strait area and its
relation with the active stress field
study of possible temporal variation in
the anisotropy parameters
Processing of all available GPS data
for the Messina strait area, map of the
horizontal
strain-rate
field
and
computation of the inter-seismic strain
loading and deep geometry of the
1908 Messina fault
Modelling of the source responsible for
the December 28, 1908 earthquake,
by using a numeric approach (i.e. finite
element)
Database of focal mechanisms of
earthquakes in the Messina Straits
over the time period between 1988
and the end of the S5 Project
2
2.3
2
2.4
Map of the stress tensor orientations
and simulation of potential damaging
earthquakes in the Messina Straits
area
Green’s function database from
ambient seismic noise for the ISNet
network (Irpinia test-site)
Resolution analysis for the crosscorrelation technique at high frequency
Refined
re-picking
arrival
time
catalogue and earthquake locations
(Irpinia test-site)
2
2.5
3
3.1
End of the
project
3
3.1
3
3.2
X
End of the
project
Preliminary
databank
for the end
of Phase I
Definitive
for the end
of
the
project
Preliminary
databank
for the end
of Phase I
Definitive
for the end
of
the
project
End of the
project
X
End of the
project
Parametric
catalogue
of
earthquakes
including
parameters (Irpinia test-site)
End of the
project
X
2
2.4
2
2.5
End of the
project
X
micro- 3
source
Digital 3 D velocity model including 3
interface and event re-location (Irpinia
test-site)
Catalogue
of
reflected/converted 3
phase arrival times from microearthquake data
173/191
Phase II
Semester
3
X
3.2
X
3.2-3.3
3.3
Preliminary
databank
for the end
of Phase I
Definitive
for the end
of
the
project
End of the
project
D24
Acquisition, storage, analysis and 3
modelling of high-rate GPS data in the
Irpinia test site
174/191
3.4
X
End of the
project
7. Workplanning
PHASE
SEMESTER
Task/RU WP
1/1
1.1
I
1
II
2
3
4
Writing and setup of Module 1, to
handle the seismic data stream,
triggering and phase association.
Writing and setup of Module 2:
implementation and integration of the
automatic picker MannekenPix; automatic
picker calibration
Writing and setup of Module 5 to archive and
automatically update the results of data
elaboration.
Permission to local authorities and planning
of the surveys.
Tests on the INGV instruments.
Digitalization of the commercial stack
sections.
Data collection and archiving.
Data processing with GIPSY-OASIS II and
time series analysis.
Geological interpretation of the seismic
sections and depth conversion
Writing and setup of Modules 3 and 4: high
precision locations with standard linear and
non-linear location methods, Vp/Vs, b-value,
focal mechanisms and 3D structure
determination.
Seismic data collection.
Data pre-processing.
First arrivals picking.
HR and VHR Traveltime tomography.
Data processing with GIPSY-OASIS II and
time series analysis.
Analysis of the GPS velocity field and
derived products (strain rate,
geodetic moment rate).
Production of the isobath maps
1/1
1.2
Revision of earthquake catalogues and
of commercial profiles. Field survey
to select optimal survey sites.
1/1
1.3
Data collection and archiving
1/2
1.4
1/2
1.5
Bibliographic study. Collection and
analysis of the available data and
literature, organized in a GIS
environment .
Geological and geomorphological
surveys
2/3
2.1
First OBS deployment
OBS recovery
2/3
2.2
Development of procedures to have
all data in the same format
2/3
2.3
2/3
2/4
Geological and geomorphological,
Aerial photo interpretation, DEM
analysis
Production of balanced geological
sections.
Resolution tests on Vp models.
CDP-processing of HR and VHR data. Joint
interpretation of Vp and stack sections New
interpretation of commercial lines.
Production of the geological and
geomorphological map including
mapping of faults and of the
stratigraphic scheme of the area.
Second OBS deployment and test of the
acoustic link
Production of the geological and
geomorphological map including
mapping of faults and of the stratigraphic
scheme of the area.
OBS recovery
Integrated archive
Preliminary earthquake locations
Comparison of different available
codes
Implementation of a preferred code to
evaluate seismic anisotropy parameters
automatically
Events selection and parameters estimation
Integrated archive
Correlation of seismicity and active faults
Interpretation of the results in terms of
fracture field and of possible temporal
variations of the stress field and/or of the
fluid pressure
2.4
Geodetic survey
Evaluation of the velocity field from all the
available data
Computation of the horizontal strain-rate
field and of the inter-seismic strain loading
and deep geometry of the 1908 Messina
fault.
Interaction with other WP and interpretation
of the results
2.5
Preparation of the datasets needed for
analyses of earthquakes occurring
during 1988-2007
Prosecution and conclusion of FM
computations for 1988-2007 earthquakes
Hypocentral locations and FM computations
with the additional contribution by the INGV
experiment data (first phase)
Hypocentral locations and FM computations
with the additional contribution by the INGV
experiment data (second and last phase)
175/191
2/4
2.5
Hypocentral locations and start of
focal mechanism computations with
the different techniques
Integration of the computed FMs with the
FMs available in the existing catalogs and
in the major literature
Start of computations of stress and strain
fields
3/6
3.1
Real Time noise data
management and processing
3/6
3.1
Real Time noise data management and
processing
Dispersion curve analysis and
tomographic inversion
Real Time noise data management and
processing
3/6
3.2
Real-Time and off-line earthquake data
Real-Time and off-line earthquake data
3/6
3.2
Refined picking , earthquake locations,
tomographic velocity models
Refined picking , earthquake locations,
tomographic velocity models
3/6
3.2
3/6
3.3
3/5
3.4
Real-Time and off-line earthquake
data management and processing
Earthquake data gathering and
standard seismic reflection
processing
Preparation of the final integrated database
and last phase of stress/strain computations.
Comparison of the results with the findings
of the other RUs for final evaluations
Earthquake Source parameters from
inversion of spectral data
Earthquake Source parameters from
inversion of spectral data
Earthquake data gathering and
standard seismic reflection processing
Reflection/converted phase identification
and modelling
Reflection/converted phase identification
and modelling
High-rate GPS procedure for alert
systems. Analysis of earthquake
detection thresholds
High-rate GPS procedure for alert
systems. Analysis of earthquake
detection thresholds
176/191
8. Personnel
Task/RU RU responsible
Institution
(surname and name)
Months/Person
Months/Person
I phase
II phase
I phase
1/1
Chiaraluce Lauro
INGV
16
22
1/2
Barchi Rinaldo Massimiliano
Univ. di Perugia
30
22
2/3
Margheriti Lucia
D’Anna Giuseppe
INGV
36
40
2
2/4
Neri Giancarlo
Univ. di Messina
16
14
11
3/5
Avallone Antonio
INGV
16
16
3/6
Zollo Aldo
Univ. di Napoli
22
22
1
II phase
1
9.1. I phase
Importo
previsto
a
(total)
Type of expenditure
Finanziato dal
Co-finanziamento
Dipartimento
c = a-b
b
(co-funded)
(DPC contribution)
(Personnel)
3)
Costi
Amministrativi
(solo
per
professionali
uso
7) Spese indirette
(Overheads)
29000
0,00
36030
0,00
56333
0,00
18000
0,00
15900
0,00
11920
0,00
167183
0,00
0,00
Total
0,00
177/191
9.2. II phase
Importo
previsto
a
(total)
Type of expenditure
Finanziato dal
Dipartimento
b
(DPC
contribution)
(Personnel)
3)
Costi
Amministrativi
(solo
per
professionali
uso
7) Spese indirette
(Overheads)
Co-finanziamento
c = a-b
(co-funded)
4000
0,00
43000
0,00
69667
0,00
0,00
Total
10200
0,00
10950
0,00
137817
0,00
9.3. Total
Importo
previsto
a
(total)
Type of expenditure
(Personnel)
etc.)
3)
Costi
Amministrativi
(solo
per
professionali
services, etc.)
uso
7) Spese indirette
(Overheads)
Total
0,00
178/191
Finanziato dal
Co-finanziamento
Dipartimento
c = a-b
b
(co-funded)
(DPC contribution)
33000
0,00
79030
0,00
126000
0,00
18000
0,00
26100
0,00
22870
0,00
0,305000
0,00
179/191
180/191
Appendix
List of Personnel Involved
Project
S5
S1, S2,
S3
Name
Abruzzese Luigi
Position
Tecnico
INGV-CNT
Akinci Aybige
Primo Ricercatore
INGV-RM1
S2, S4
Albarello Dario
Professore Associato
S1
S5
S1, S5
S3, S4
S1
S5
S3
S1
S5
S1
Albini Paola
Aloisi Marco
Amato Alessandro
Ameri Gabriele
Amoruso Antonella
Angelici Maria Giuseppa
Antonioli Andrea
Antonioli Fabrizio
Anzidei Marco
Aoudia Abdelkrim
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Dirigente di Ricerca
Borsista
Ricercatore
Dottoranda
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Primo Ricercatore
Research Scientist
S1
Apuzzo Raffaele
Collaboratore tecnico
S5
S3
Arcoraci Luca
Arena Giovanni
CTER
Primo Tecnologo
S5
Argenti Patrizia
Collaboratore esterno
S1
S3
S2
S4
S1, S3,
S4
S1, S5
S5
S1
S3
Argnani Andrea
Armigliato Alberto
Arroyo, Danny
Attanà Simone
Primo Ricercatore
Co.Co.Co.
Doctor
CTER
ISMAR-BO
II-UNAM
INGV – Milano Pavia
Augliera Paolo
Primo Ricercatore
INGV - Milano Pavia
Avallone Antonio
Baccheschi Paola
Balestra Francesca
Barani Simone
Barba Salvatore
(Coordinatore S1)
Ricercatore
Borsista
Dottoranda
Assegnista
S1
Barbano M. Serafina
Professore associato
S1, S5
Barchi Massimiliano
Rinaldo
Basili Roberto
Bauz Ralf
Bellani Stefano
Bellier Olivier
Bellucci Luca Giorgio
Bencivenga Mauro
Berlusconi Andrea
Bernardi Fabrizio
Professore Ordinario
S1
S1, S3
S4
S1
S1
S1
S3
S1
S1
Primo Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Tecnico
Ricercatore
Professore
Ricercatore
Dirigente Tecnico
Dottorando
Ricercatore
181/191
Insitute
Università di Siena
INGV -CT
INGV-CNT
Dip. Fisica Univ. Salerno
POLI BA
INGV-CNT
ENEA Casaccia-Roma
INGV-CNT
ICTP
APAT
INGV-CNT
APAT
UNIPG - Dipartimento di Scienze della
Terra
INGV-CNT
INGV-CNT
INGV-RM1
Dip.Ter.Ris-Unige
INGV-RM1
Dip.to Scienze Geologiche Univ. Catania
Università di Perugia, Dip.to Scienze della
Terra
INGV-RM1
GFZ
CNR-IGG
CEREGE/ Univ. Aix-Marseille II
ISMAR-BO
APAT
Università dell’Insubria
INGV-CNT
S4
S5
Bianchi Giovanni
Bianco Francesca
Tecnico
Primo Ricercatore
S1
Bigi Sabina
Ricercatore
S1
S3, S4
S3
S1
Billi Andrea
Bindi Dino
Bobbio Muzio
Bonazzi Claudia
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Collaboratore ter.
Co.Co.Co.
S1, S2
Boncio Paolo
S5
S2
Bonforte Alessandro
Bono Andrea
Ricercatore
Tecnologo
S1
Borghi Alessandra
Collaboratrice di ricerca
INGV-OV
Dipartimento di Scienze della TerraUniversità di Roma La Sapienza
Univ. Roma TRE
INGV - Milano Pavia
OGS-GDL
ISMAR-BO
Università di Chieti
INGV - CT
INGV – CNT
INOGS: c/o Politecnico di Milano
Dep. Earth and Space Sciences Univ.
Washington
Università “La Sapienza”
S1
Bourgeois Joanne
Associate professor
S4
S2, S3
Bozzano Francesca
Bragato Pierluigi
Tecnologo
S1
Braitenberg Carla
Ricercatore
S5
S3
S1
S1, S5
S5
S1
Braun Thomas
Bressan Lidia
Brozzetti Francesco
Bruno Pier Paolo
Bruno Valentina
Burrato Pierfrancesco
Ricercatore
Dottoranda
Ricercatore
Borsista
Ricercatore
S1
Cacciapaglia Giuseppe
Tecnico
S3
Calcaterra Domenico
S5
S5
S5
Calò Marco
Cannavò Flavio
Cantarero Massimo
Dottorando
Tecnologo
Tecnico
S3
Cantore Luciana
Dottoranda
S1
Caporali Alessandro
S5
Caprino Giovanni
Dottorando
S1
Caputo Riccardo
S4
S1
S5
S3
Cara Fabrizio
Carafa Michele
Cardinale Vincenzo
Carenzo Giacomo
Ricercatore
Dottorando
Tecnico
Tecnico Univ.
S1
Carminati Eugenio
Ricercatore
S3
S1, S2,
S3
S1
S5
S1, S4
S5
Caruso Ermanno
Tecnologo
INGV-RM1
INGV-RM1
INGV-CNT
Dip.Ter.Ris-UniGe
Università di Roma La Sapienza
APAT
Casarotti Emanuele
Ricercatore
INGV – RM5
Casero Piero
Castagnozzi Angelo
Castello Barbara
Castiello Antonio
Professore
Tecnico
Ricercatore
Borsista
Collaboratore Esterno
INGV-CNT
INGV-CNT
INGV-RM1
S1
Catalano Stefano
Professore Straordinario
S1
Catalli Flaminia
Assegnista
182/191
INOGS - Udine
Dip. Scienze della Terra Universita’ di
Trieste
INGV-RM1
INGV-OV
INGV -CT
INGV-RM1
Dipartimento di Geologia e Geofisica,
Università di Bari
DIGA – UniNa
INGV-CNT
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
Università degli Studi “Federico II” di
Napoli Dip. di Scienze Fisiche
Dipartimento di Geoscienze Università di
Padova
POLI BA
Univ. Di Ferrara
Dipartimento Scienze Geologiche –
Università di Catania
INGV-RM1
S4, S5
S4
S1
S1
S1, S5
Cattaneo Marco
Cauzzi Carlo
Cavaliere Adriano
Cavallo Andrea
Cecere Giampaolo
Dirigente
Assegnista
Borsista
Tecnologo
Primo Tecnologo
S1
Cefalo Raffaela
S1
S1, S5
S5
S1
S1, S5
S1, S5
S1
S1
S3
Centorame Valentina
Cheloni Daniele
Chesi Angela
Chiarabba, Claudio
Chiaraluce Lauro
Ciaccio Maria Grazia
Cifelli Francesca
Cipriano Carcano
Cirella Antonella
Laureanda
Borsista
CTER
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Geologo Senior
Assegnista
INGV-CNT
INGV-CNT
INGV-CNT
INGV-CNT
INGV-RM1
Univ. Roma TRE
ENI E&P
INGV-RM1
S3
Cirilli Stefano
Funzionario Tecnico
DST-UniTS
S4
Cogliano Rocco
CTER
S5
Collettini Cristiano
Ricercatore
S1
Congi Maria Pia
Tecnologo
S2
Console Rodolfo
S3
S5
Convertito Vincenzo
Corrado Castellano
Ricercatore
CTER
S1
Cosentino Mario
Ricercatore
S3
S5
S1
Costa Giovanni
Costantino Domenica
Cremaschi Mauro
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
S1
S5
Crescentini Luca
Criscuoli Fabio
Tecnico
S1
Cuffaro Marco
Assegnista
S2, S3
S1
S1, S5
S3, S4
S5
S1
S5
S5
S2
S1, S5
S5
S5
Cultrera Giovanna
Cuppari Angela
D’ Agostino Nicola
D’Alema Ezio
D’Alessandro Antonino
D’Ambrogi Chiara
D’Ambrosio Ciriaco
D’Amico Sebastiano
D’Amico Vera
D’Anastasio Elisabetta
D’Anna Giuseppe
D’Anna Roberto
Ricercatore
Coll est
Primo Ricercatore
Tecnico
Borsista
Tecnologo
Tecnologo
Borsista
Ricercatore
Assegnista
Primo Tecnologo
CTER
S3
D’Onofrio Anna
Dal Forno Giulio
De Ferrari Roberto
De Filippis Luigi
De Gori Pasquale
De Guidi Giorgio
Assegnista
Assegnista
Dottorando
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
S1
S3
S1
S1, S5
S1, S5
183/191
INGV-CNT
Dipartimento di Ingegneria Strutturale
INGV
INGV- RM1
INGV-CNT
Dip. Ingegneria Civile e Ambientale
INGV-RM1
Università di Perugia
APAT
INGV-OV
INGV-CNT
Dip.to Scienze Geologiche Università di
Catania
DST-UniTS
POLI BA
Università di Milano
Dip. Fisica Univ. Salerno
INGV-CNT
Istituto di Geologia Ambientale e
Geoingegneria -CNR
INGV-RM1
Dip Sc Geol Amb Mar Università di Trieste
INGV-RM1
INGV-CNT
APAT
INGV-CNT
Università di St. Louis (USA)
INGV-CNT
INGV-CNT
INGV-CNT
DIGA – UniNa
Dip. Fisica Univ. Bologna
Dip.Ter.Ris-UniGe
Univ. Roma TRE
INGV-CNT
S5
S1
S1
S1
S5
S1, S3
S1
S1
S5
S1
S2
S1, S3
S4
S1
Tecnico
Ricercatore
Tecnico
Funzionario
Borsista
Primo Ricercatore
CTER
Ricercatore
Tecnico
Collaboratore di ricerca
Ingegnere
Primo Ricercatore
Borsista
Ricercatore
S4
De Luca Giovanni
De Martini Paolo Marco
De Martino Prospero
de Nardis Rita
De Rosa Dario
De Rubeis Valerio
De Santis Anna
Del Carlo Paola
Del Mese
Della Via Giorgio
Demartinos Konstantinos
Devoti Roberto
Di Alessandro Carola
Di Bucci Daniela
Di Capua Giuseppe
(Segretario Comitato di
Gestione)
Di Giulio Giuseppe
S1
Di Stefano Agata
Ricercatore
S1, S5
S4
Ricercatore
Dottorando
S1
S1
Di Stefano Raffaele
Ditommaso Rocco
Doglioni Carlo
(Coordinatore S1)
Dramis Franco
Emolo Antonio
(Coordinatore S3)
Esposito Alessandra
Esposito Eliana
S3
Eva Claudio
Dip.Ter.Ris-UniGe
S1
Università di Roma Tre
Politecnico Milano
S3
S5
S1, S2
S1
S1
Faccenna Claudio
Faccioli Ezio (Coordinatore
S2)
Faenza Licia
Falco Luigi
Falcone Giuseppe
Falcucci Emanuela
Fanetti Daniela
S5
Fastellini Guido
Assegnista
S1
Ferranti Luigi
Ricercatore
S1
S3
Ferrari Graziano
Ferretti Gabriele
Ricercatore
S3, S5
Festa Gaetano
Ricercatore
S4
S4
S1
S4
S1
S3
S4
Figini Raffaele
Fodarella Antonio
Foglini Federica
Foti Sebastiano
Fracassi Umberto
Franceschina Gianlorenzo
Franco Diego
Dottorando
CTER
Tecnologo
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Tecnico
S4
S1
S1
S3, S5
S2, S4
INGV-CNT
INGV-RM1
INGV-OV
DPC
INGV-RM1
INGV-RM1
INGV-AC
INGV-CT
INGV-CNT
INGV-CNT
INGV-RM1
DPC
Ricercatore
INGV-AC
Ricercatore
INGV-RM1
INGV-CNT
Università della Basilicata
Università di Roma “La Sapienza”
Univ. Roma TRE
INGV-CNT
IAMC CNR
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Tecnico
Contrattista
Borsista
Assegnista
184/191
INGV-CNT
INGV-CNT
Università di Messina
UNIPG - Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile
e Ambientale
Dip. Scienze della Terra Università di
Napoli
INGV-CNT
Dip.Ter.Ris-UniGe
INGV-RM1
ISMAR-BO
INGV-RM1
INGV - Milano Pavia
S1
S3
S1, S4
S3
S4
Franz Livio
Furlanetto Eleonora
Galadini Fabrizio
Gallazzi Sara
Gallipoli Maria Rosaria
Assegnista
Dottoranda
Primo Ricercatore
Borsista
Assegnista
S3
Gallovik Frantisek
Contrattista
S1
Galvani Alessandro
Ricercatore
S2
Garavaglia Elsa
Professore associato
S1, S2
S1
S2
S3
Garcia Julio
Gasperini Luca
Gentili Stefania
Gentili Stefania
Assegnista
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
S1
Gerald Roberts
S1
Gerardi Flavia
Borsista
S5
Gervasi Anna
Assegnista
S1
Girardi Gianpaolo
Tecnico
S2
Ricercatore
S1
S5
S1
S1
Gomez Capera Antonio
Augusto
Gori Stefano
Govoni Aladino
Grazia Pietrantonio
Graziani Laura
Borsista
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
S1
Grillo Barbara
Laureata
S1
S4
S1, S5
S1
Guarnieri Pierpaolo
Guenther Erwin
Guerra Ignazio
Guerrieri Luca
Dottore di Ricerca
Tecnico
Ricercatore
INGV-CNT
INGV
INGV-RM2
Trieste
GFZ
S1
Guidarelli Mariangela
Assegnista
S4
S4
S2, S3
S1, S5
S1
S1, S5
Halaimakael Salomon
Harabaglia Paolo
Herrero André
Hunstad Ingrid
Imperatori Walter
Improta Luigi
Dottorando
Ricercatore
Primo Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Dottorando
Ricercatore
S1
Iurilli Vincenzo
Tecnico
S1
Karl Mueller
S1
Kastelic Vanja
Assegnista
S1
Kershaw Steve
Ricercatore
S1
La Mura Cristina
Dottorando
S2
Lagomarsino Sergio
DICAT, Università di Genova
S1
Lanzafame Gianni
INGV - CT
S4
Lanzo Giuseppe
185/191
DST-UniTS
CNR-IMAA
INGV-CNT
Politecnico Milano
INOGS - Trieste
ISMAR-BO
INOGS - Udine
OGS-CRS
Birbeck University College - London
Dip.to Scienze Geologiche Università di
Catania
UNICAL-INGV
Padova
Università di Cosenza
APAT
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra –
INGV-RM1
INGV-CNT
ETH - Zurigo
INGV-RM1
Università di Bari
University of Colorado – Boulder
INGV-RM1 e Università di Ljubljana,
Slovenia
Dept. Geography, Brunel University,
London, UK
Sapienza Università di Roma
S3
S3
Laprocina Enrica
Lauciani Valentino
Dottoranda
Tecnico
S1, S2
Lavecchia Giuseppina
S4
Lenti Luca
Ricercatore
S2
S1
S1, S2
S1, S3
S3, S4
Lisi Arianna
Lolli Barbara
Lombardi Anna Maria
Lorito Stefano
Lovati Sara
Ricercatore
Assegnista
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Borsista
S3
Lucca Ernestina
Dottoranda
S1
Lucente Francesco Pio
Ricercatore
S2, S4
Lunedei Enrico
S3, S4
Luzi Lucia
Ricercatore
S5
Luzio Dario
Università di Palermo
S5
Maercklin Nils
Contrattista
S1
S2, S3
S5
S3, S5
S5
S1, S5
S1
S1
S3
S1
Senior Scientist
Ricercatore
Primo Tecnologo
CTER IV liv
Borsista
Assegnista
Primo Ricercatore
Tecnologo
Funzionario
S1
Mai Martin
Malagnini Luca
Mancini Marco
Mandiello Alfonso
Mangano Giorgio
Mantenuto Sergio
Manucci Anna
Maramai Alessandra
Marcocci Carlo
Marcucci Sandro
Margheriti Lucia
(Coordinatore S5)
Mariucci M.Teresa
Ricercatore
INGV – RM1
S1
Martin Silvana
UNI-Insubria
S2
S5
S4
Martinelli Francesco
Martino Claudio
Martino Salvatore
Marzocchi Warner
(coordiantore S2)
Tecnologo
Contrattista
Ricercatore
S1, S3,
S4
Marzorati Simone
Ricercatore
S1
Maschio Laura
Massa Marco
Ricercatore
Massucci Angelo
Tecnico
S1
Mastronuzzi Giuseppe
Università di Bari
S1
Mattei Massimo
Univ. Roma TRE
S1, S5
S3
S1
Mattia Mario
Mazza Salvatore
Mazzella Maria Enrica
Tecnologo
Dirigente Tecnologo
Dottorando
INGV-CT
INGV-CNT
S5
S2
S1, S3,
S4
S5
Primo Ricercatore
186/191
DST-UniTS
INGV-CNT
Laboratoire Nationale des Ponts et
Chaussées
INGV – RM2
INGV-RM1
INGV-RM1
INGV-CNT
ETH - Zurigo
INGV-RM1
IGAG-CNR
INGV-CNT
INGV-CNT
INGV-CNT
INGV-RM2
INGV-CNT
DPC
INGV-CNT
AMRA scarl
INGV – RM4
Napoli
INGV-CNT
Napoli
S1
S2, S3,
S4
Megna Antonella
Ricercatore
INGV-RM1
Mele Francesco
Primo Ricercatore
INGV-CNT
S5
Melelli Laura
Ricercatore
S2
S5
S3
S2
Meletti Carlo
Memmolo Antonino
Mercuri Alessia
Meroni Fabrizio
Michelini Alberto
(Coordinatore S3)
Primo Tecnologo
Tecnico
Borsista
Primo Tecnologo
S1
Michetti Alessandro Maria
S5
S1, S4
S4
S1
S5
Migliari Franco
Milana Giuliano
Milkereit Regina
Minelli Liliana
Minichiello Felice
Tecnico
Tecnologo
tecnico
Dottoranda
Tecnico
S1, S5
Mirabella Francesco
Assegnista
S1
S1
Mohammad Irfan Amhad
Molin Paola
Ricercatore
Ricercatrice
S4
Mollaioli Fabrizio
S4, S5
Monachesi Giancarlo
Primo Ricercatore
S1, S3
Terra
INGV-CNT
INGV-RM1
INGV-CNT
INGV-CNT
INGV-RM1
GFZ
Univ. Roma TRE
INGV-CNT
Terra
Università di Pavia
Univ. Roma TRE
INGV-CNT
S1, S5
Monaco Carmelo
Catania
S1, S5
S3
S3
S3
S1
S5
S4
S3
S1, S5
Montone Paola
Morasca Paola
Moratto Luca
Morelli Andrea
Morelli Danilo
Moretti Milena
Moro Marco
Moro Remo
Moschillo Raffaele
Assegnista
Collaboratore
Borsista
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Tecnico
Tecnico
INGV – RM 1
Dip.Ter.Ris-UniGe
DST-UniTS
INGV-BO
Dip Sc Geol Amb Mar Università di Trieste
INGV-CNT
INGV-CNT
INGV-CNT
INGV-CNT
S2, S4
Mucciarelli Marco
S1, S2
S1
Murru Maura
Musacchio Gemma
Primo Ricercatore
Ricercatore
S1
Nagy Ildiko’
Co.Co.Co.
S3
Nardone Gabriele
Primo Tecnologo
S1, S5
Neri Giancarlo
S1
Oldow John S.
Department Geological Sciences,
University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, US
S1
S3
S2
S1, S5
S1, S2
S1
Olivetti Valerio
Olivieri Marco
Ordaz Mario
Orecchio Barbara
Pace Bruno
Pachner Antonio
Dottorando
Ricercatore
Doctor
Assegnista
Ricercatore
Laureando
187/191
INGV-RM1
Trieste
APAT
Univ. Roma TRE
INGV-CNT
II-UNAM
Dip. Scienze della Terra e Dip. Scienze
Ambientali e Marine Universita’ di Trieste
Pacor Francesca
(Coordinatore S4)
Pagliaroli Alessandro
Pagnini Luisa C.
Pagnoni Gianluca
Palano Mimmo
Palombo Barbara
Pantaloni Marco
Pantosti Daniela
(Coordinatore Generale)
Primo Ricercatore
S1
Panza Giuliano F.
S1
Paola Imprescia
Dottorando
S1
Paolo Gasperini
S2, S4
S2
S4
S5
S3
S5
Paolucci Roberto
(Coordinatore S4)
Parodi Sonia
Parolai Stefano
Passafiume Giuseppe
Pasta Marco
Pastori Marina
S1
Patrizia Mariani
borsista
S1
Pauselli Cristina
Ricercatore
S3
S3
S4
Pavan Marco
Penna Augusto
Peppoloni Silvia
Tecnico Univ.
Tecnico
Assegnista
S1
Peresan Antonella
Ricercatore
S1
Perkins David M.
Research Geophysicist
S2
S4
S1
S2
S1
S3
S1
S1, S3
S5
S4
S1, S5
S1
Peruzza Laura
Pessina Vera
Peter Sammonds
Petrini Lorenza
Petrini Riccardo
Pettenati Franco
Piana Agostinetti Nicola
Piatanesi Alesssio
Piccinini Davide
Picozzi Matteo
Pierdominici Simona
Pietrantonio Grazia
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
S1
Pignatelli Cosimo
Assegnista
S1, S5
S4
S3
S1
S4
S1
S3, S5
Pignone Maurizio
Pilz Marco
Pintore Stefano
Pirrotta Claudia
Pischiutta Marta
Polonia Alina
Pondrelli Silvia
Tecnologo
Dottorando
Tecnologo
Borsista
Dottorando
Ricercatore
Primo Ricercatore
S3, S4
S4
S2
S1
S5
S1
S1
S1
Assegnista
Ricercatore
Assegnista
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Tecnologo
Assegnista
Senior Scientist
CTER
Tecnico Univ.
Dottoranda
188/191
INGV -CT
INGV-CNT
APAT
INGV-RM1
Catania
Politecnico Milano
GFZ
INGV-CNT
Dip.Ter.Ris-UniGe
UNIPG
Trieste
Terra
Dip.Ter.Ris-UniGe
DIGA – UniNa
INGV-RM1
USGS, Denver, CO
INOGS - Trieste
Birbeck University College - London
Politecnico di Milano
OGS-GDL (**)
INGV-CNT
INGV-RM1
INGV-RM1
GFZ
INGV – RM1
INGV-CNT
Università di Bari
INGV-CNT
GFZ
INGV-CNT
INGV-RM1
ISMAR-BO
INGV-BO
S1
Praticelli Nicola
Tecnico Laureato
S1, S5
S3
S1, S5
S4
S5
S5
S3
Presti Debora
Priolo Enrico
Pucci Stefano
Pucillo Stefania
Puglisi Biagio
Pulvirenti Fabio
Quintiliani Matteo
Assegnista
Primo Ricercatore
Ricercatore
CTER
Tecnico
Borsista
Tecnico
S5
Radicioni Fabio
S1
S2
S4
S1
S1
S1
Renner Gianfranco
Resemini Sonia
Riccio Gaetano
Ridente Domenico
Riggio Anna
Riguzzi Federica
Ricercatore
Assegnista
CTER
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Primo Ricercatore
S4
Rivellino Stefano
S1
S1
Roberto Devoti
Rogledi Sergio
Primo Ricercatore
Geologo Senior
S1
Romagnoli Gino
Dottorando
S1
Romanelli Fabio
Ricercatore
S1, S3
S1
S1
S4
S1
S1
S1
Romano Fabrizio
Rossetti Federico
Rotondi Renata
Rovelli Antonio
Rovere Marzia
Sabina Porfido
Sacchi Marco
Dottorando
Ricercatore
Primo Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
S5
Saccucci Laura
Dottoranda
S5
S3
Salimbeni Simone
Sandron Denis
Borsista
Assegnista
S1
Sansò Paolo
S2
Santacruz Sandra
Doctor
S1
Santoro Enrico
Dottorando
S1, S2
S3
S3, S5
S3
S4
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Contrattista
Assegnista
Assegnista
S1
S4
Santulin Marco
Saraò Angela
Satriano Claudio
Scafidi Davide
Scandella Laura
Scarascia Mugnozza
Gabriele
Scardia Giancarlo
Scasserra Giuseppe
S1
Scicchitano Gianfranco
Dottorando
S1, S3
Scognamiglio Laura
Ricercatore
S1
Scrocca Davide
Ricercatore
S5
Selvaggi Giulio
S4
Assegnista
Assegnista
189/191
Padova
OGS-CRS
INGV-RM1
INGV-RM1
INGV-CT
INGV-CT
INGV-CNT
e Ambientale
OGS
INGV-RM1
IGAG -CNR
OGS
INGV-CNT
INGV-CNT
ENI E&P
INGV-RM1
Univ. Roma TRE
C.N.R. – I.M.A.T.I.
INGV-RM1
ISMAR-BO
IAMC-CNR
IAMC CNR
Terra
INGV-BO
OGS-GDL
Dipartimento di Scienza dei Materiali,
Università di Lecce
ERN
Catania
OGS
OGS-CRS
AMRA scarl
Dip.Ter.Ris-UniGe
Catania
INGV-CNT
Istituto di Geologia Ambientale e
Geoingegneria -CNR
INGV-CNT
S1
Seno Silvio
S1
S1
S1, S5
S1
S1
Sepe Vincenzo
Serpelloni Enrico
Serpelloni Enrico
Sgroi Tiziana
Sileo Giancanio
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Assegnista
S3
Silvestri Francesco
DIGA - UniNa
S3
S3
S1
S1
S1
S4
S4
S2
S2
S3
S5
Simone Salimbeni
Sirovich Livio
Slejko Dario
Slejko Francesca F.
Smedile Alessandra
Smerzini Chiara
Socco Laura Valentina
Sorrentino Diego
Spagnuolo Elena
Spallarossa Daniele
Speciale Stefano
Assegnista
Primo Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Assegnista
Dottorando
Ricercatore
CTER
Dottoranda
CTER
INGV-BO
OGS-GDL
OGS
INGV-RM1
Rose School, Pavia
INGV – RM3
INGV – RM7
S3, S5
Stabile Tony Alfredo
Contrattista
S2
Stirling Mark
Ricercatore
S5
Stoppini Aurelio
S1
S4
S4
Stramondo Salvatore
Strollo Angelo
Stucchi Massimiliano
Ricercatore
Dottorando
S4
Stupazzini Marco
Assegnista
S2
S3
S1
S5
S1, S3
S3, S5
S1, S3
S1
S1
Sudati Dario
Suhadolc Peter
Tafaro Francesco
Taramelli Andrea
Tiberti Mara Monica
Tinti Elisa
Tinti Stefano
Tolomei Cristiano
Tonini Roberto
CTER
Dottorando
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Assegnista
S1
Torelli Luigi
Professore
Università di Parma
S1
Tortorici Giuseppe
Assegnista
S1
Tortorici Luigi
S1
S1, S3
S1, S5
S1
S1
S1
S3
S3
S1
S1
Toscani Giovanni
Tosi Patrizia
Totaro Cristina
Trincardi Fabio
Tripone Daniele
Trombino Luca
Tropeano Giuseppe
Turino Chiara
Turturici Filippo
Vaccari Franco
Ricercatore
Primo Ricercatore
Borsista
Dottorando
Ricercatore
Dottorando
Borsista
Borsista
Ricercatore
INGV-RM1
ISMAR-BO
Dip. Difesa del Suolo - UniCal
Dip.Ter.Ris-UniGe
CISAS Università di Padova
190/191
INGV-CNT
INGV-CNT
INGV-CNT
INGV-RM2
Dip.Ter.Ris-UniGe
INGV-CNT
GNS – New Zealand
e Ambientale
INGV-CNT
GFZ
Politecnico Milano
INGV-Milano Pavia
DST-UniTS
UNIPG - Facoltà di Scienze MMFFNN
INGV-RM1
INGV-RM1
INGV-CNT
S1
S1
S5
S1
S1
S5
S5
S1
S1
S5
S2
S1
S1, S2
S1
S2
S3
Valensise Gianluca
Valerio Comerci
Valoroso Luisa
Vannoli Paola
Vannucci Gianfranco
Varriale Francesco
Vassallo Maurizio
Vezzoli Luigina
Viganò Alfio
Villani Fabio
Villani Manuela
Violante Crescenzo
Visini Francesco
Vittori Eutizio
Volpe Manuela
Vuan Alessandro
Ricercatore
Borsista
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
Borsista
Contrattista
Dottorando
Ricercatore
Ingegnere
Ricercatore
Assegnista
Dirigente
Ricercatore
Ricercatore
S1
Ward Steven N.
Research Geophysicist
S5
S3
S1
S1, S5
S1
Assegnista
Co.Co.Co.
Ricercatore
Tecnico
Assegnista
S1
Zaccarelli Lucia
Zaniboni Filippo
Zanini Angela
Zarrilli Luigi
Zerboni Andrea
Zollo Aldo (Coordinatore
S5)
Zonno Gaetano
S1
Zuccolo Elisa
Dottorando
S3
Zunino Enzo
Tecnico Univ.
S1
Zuri Marco
Laureando
S3, S5
Primo Ricercatore
191/191
INGV-RM1
APAT
INGV-CNT
INGV-RM1
INGV BO
INGV
AMRA scarl
UNI-Insubria
INGV-RM1
IAMC CNR
Università Chieti
APAT
INGV – RM6
OGS-CRS
University of California – Santa Cruz
INGV-OV
INGV-CNT
Dip.Ter.Ris-UniGe

Convenzione INGV-DPC 2007-2009

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Rete di Posizionamento GNSS Sicili@net

Workshop on Lightweight Steel Drywall Constructions in

Siti istituzionali sulle droghe