6. Aubin-IT [modalità compatibilità]
Transcript
6. Aubin-IT [modalità compatibilità]
3 luglio 2014 La grande distribuzione alimentare in Europa MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH Europe Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ Europa: chi vince e chi perde? Distribuzione alimentare: globalizzazione o localizzazione? Internet: minaccia o opportunità? Edouard Aubin [email protected] +44 (0)20 7425 3160 Francois Halconruy [email protected] +44 (0)20 7425 5207 Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to NASD/NYSE restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH COOP Italia July 3, 2014 I migliori in Europa 2 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH COOP Italia July 3, 2014 I migliori in Europa: 1. I discount continuano a guadagnare quote di mercato in gran parte d’Europa 2. Più in generale, il settore è sempre più polarizzato, soprattutto nel Regno Unito (tendenza presente anche negli USA) 3. Si registra un passaggio dagli ipermercati ai convenience stores dovuto alle tendenze sociodemografiche e all’on-line 4. Gli operatori privati tendono ad avere risultati migliori delle società quotate 3 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH COOP Italia July 3, 2014 Regno Unito: la polarizzazione del mercato è più veloce che in molti altri paesi europei Le 4 grandi società quotate (The Big 4), hanno perso le quote più consistenti di mercato A nostro parere, questo è dovuto al fatto che i Big 4 sono di fatto un oligopolio volto ad aumentare il suo margine lordo Food Inflation Big 4 (public cos.) 125 -210 118.6 120 Others (private) 115 10 113.0 110 105 Waitrose (private) 20 105.4 -200 -150 -100 -50 00 Nota: evoluzione delle quote di mercato (TTM) 50 100 150 Fontre: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research Negli ultimi trimestri si è accelerata la perdita di quote di mercato dei Big 4 … Big 4 Sales Growth (Total Till Roll) vs Market Sales Growth (Total Grocers) 3MMA +2.0% +1.0% +0.0% -1.0% Jun-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jul-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 Jun-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 -2.0% -3.0% Fonte: Kantar Worldpanel, Morgan Stanley Research Apr-14 Jan-14 Jul-13 Oct-13 Apr-13 Jan-13 Jul-12 Oct-12 Apr-12 Jan-12 Jul-11 France Oct-11 Apr-11 Jan-11 Jul-10 Oct-10 Apr-10 Jan-10 Jul-09 Oct-09 UK 200 OECD - Europe Fonte: OCSE, Morgan Stanley Research … mentre Aldi e Lidl conquistano sempre più velocemente quote di mercato Aldi + Lidl - market share (rolling 52wk, grocery only) 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Feb-04 Aug-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Dec-05 May-06 Nov-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Mar-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Nov-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Jan-14 -250 180 Apr-09 95 Hard Discount Jan-09 100 Fonte: Kantar Worldpanel, Morgan Stanley Research 4 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH COOP Italia July 3, 2014 Spagna & Belgio: I discount guadagnano inequivocabilmente quote di mercato Spagna: Mercadona, DIA e Lidl guadagnano quote… Other regional players -140 Anche in Belgio i discount guadagnano quote… Listed players (Carrefour & Delhaize) Other national players (Carrefour, Auchan, etc.) -70 Others 10 0 Soft discount (Colruyt) Hard discount (DIA, Lidl) 10 50 Hard discount (Aldi & Lidl) Soft discount (Mercadona) 60 80 -80 -160 -120 -80 -40 0 40 80 Nota: evoluzione delle quote di mercato(TTM) Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research …continuamente dal 2000 30% Hypermarkets -20 0 28.8% Nota: evoluzione delle quote di mercato(TTM) 25.9% 24% 40% 24.6% 22% 31% 22.8% 19.1% 17.3% 16% 20.8% 19.7% 19.7% 16.9% 16.8% 16.9% 17.1% 16.3% 18.2% 15.8% 80 Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research 33% 35% 35% 2003 2004 37% 38% 2005 2006 40% 44% 46% 42% 43% 45% 42% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20% 15.2% 16.1% 13.3% 15.0% 14% 60 30% 21.9% 19.0% 40 50% 27.6% 20% 20 % market share - Discounters Soft & Hard Discount 26% 12% -40 … trend che dura da oltre un decennio 28% 18% -60 120 14.7% 14.6% 14.3% 14.1% 10% 11.5% 0% 10% 2002 2007 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 2001 Fonte: Kantar, Beragua Nota: i discount comprendono Colruyt, Aldi, Lidl, Intermarché, Red Market and Profi/Smatch. Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research 5 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH COOP Italia July 3, 2014 Germania: crescono i discount e I convenience store. Francia: i discount perdono quote Germania: continua l’ascesa di Aldi e Lidl Francia: il canale discount perde quote Lidl & Schwarz Group 60 Hard discount Aldi -60 15 Edeka Listed groups (Carrefour, Casino, etc.) 10 Rewe Group -35 -20 Private groups (Auchan, Cora, etc.) Metro Group -10 -30 Others Independents (Leclerc, etc.) -35 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 105 70 -80 Nota: evoluzione delle quote di mercato(TTM) Fonte: dati interni, Planet Retail, Morgan Stanley Research Germania: predominio delle cooperative e dei discount -60 -40 -20 Nota: evoluzione delle quote di mercato(TTM to 18 May 2014) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Fonte: dati interni, Kantar, Morgan Stanley Research Francia: gli operatori tradizionali hanno abbassato I prezzi 115 Others 18.2 Monoprix Edeka 25.7 110 Casino Metro Group 6.7 105 Auchan 100 Fonte: dati interni, Planet Retail, Morgan Stanley Research 1H-2013 1H-2012 1H-2011 1H-2010 1H-2009 1H-2008 1H-2007 1H-2006 1H-2005 1H-2004 Leclerc 1H-2003 90 1H-2002 Carrefour 1H-2001 Rewe Group 16.0 Schwarz Group 18.5 95 1H-2000 Aldi 14.9 Géant Fonte: Linéaires, Morgan Stanley Research 6 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH COOP Italia July 3, 2014 Dal globale al locale: Gli operatori europei della distribuzione alimentare si ridimensionano e ci sembra improbabile che un nuovo operatore si inserisca sul mercato italiano 7 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH COOP Italia July 3, 2014 In Europa quasi tutti i distributori si stanno ridimensionando… CARREFOUR: attualmente presente in 9 paesi, dai 23 in fase di massima espansione nel 2002 CASINO: il ridimensionamento è quasi completato con la società che opera in 6 paesi Number of countries operated in Numbers of countries operated in 11 11 11 11 9 18 18 17 17 17 18 9 8 8 7 15 6 AHOLD: dopo un periodo di rapida espansione negli anni 90, attualmente la società opera solo in 3 paesi Number of foreign countries operated in 18 6 6 6 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 2 1998 2 1997 1 1996 1 1995 9 1994 9 Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research 17 6 5 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 10 1994 9 8 17 2013 16 21 2014e 14 15 20 22 2014e 19 21 2012 23 23 Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research DIA: la società opera in meno paesi dopo lo scoporo da Carrefour nel 2011 Number of foreign countries operated in 7 17 17 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 14 14 5 3 1995 1996 1998 3 4 5 5 4 Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research 2014e 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 3 2000 3 1999 2 3 1994 4 2014e 4 2013 4 2012 2006 3 2011 2005 3 2010 3 2008 3 2007 3 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 5 1995 1994 4 2009 9 4 1997 12 Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research 8 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH COOP Italia July 3, 2014 …e Tesco e Metro potrebbero cedere parti dell’attività DELHAIZE: negli ultimi 20 anni la società ha attraversato due periodi di espansione/contrazione… JERONIMO MARTINS: l’unica grande società di distribuzione alimentare ad essere cresciuta negli ultimi anni in Europa Number of foreign countries operated in 9 8 9 8 8 Number of foreign countries operated in 9 8 3 7 1 1 Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research estimates (e) TESCO: la società non segue più una politica aggressiva di espansione e potrebbe decidere di cedere attività 2001 1 1 1 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 32 32 31 31 2014e 2000 1 2013 1999 1 2012 11 9 8 1 METRO: la cessione di attività non strategiche potrebbe continuare visti i vincoli di bilancio e la necessità di operare in meno paesi 10 10 8 1 Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research estimates (e) 12 11 8 2 Number of foreign countries operated in 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 1 2012 1 2011 2001 1996 2000 1995 1999 0 1998 0 1997 0 1994 2013 2014e 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1 Number of foreign countries operated in 2 4 2010 4 2011 4 2009 4 2008 4 2007 4 2006 4 2005 4 2004 4 2013 6 2003 4 3 2002 4 3 2014e 6 3 24 22 20 7 6 5 3 Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research estimates (e) 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 2014e 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 1998 1997 1996 1993 1995 1 1994 1 1992 2 Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research estimates (e) 9 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH COOP Italia July 3, 2014 In generale, i risultati all’estero negli ultimi dieci anni sono stati deludenti TESCO Europa dell’Est: risultati lordi e netti sotto pressione 5.7% 5.8% 5.6% 5.4% 5.7% 5.8% +12% 3.5% 4% DELHAIZE US - Underyling EBIT margin +8% 5.6% 2.6% 0% +0% -2% -4% -4% -8% LFL sales change in % 5.6% 5.3% 5.2% 5.1% 5.4% 5.5% 5.6% 5.4% 5.4% 4.8% 4.7% 4.5% 4.6% 4.4% 3.8% 3.7% Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research Food CPI Carrefour LFL Lianhua 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 5% Sun Art LFL Wumart 0% EBIT margin as a % of sales +15% Source: Kantar Worldpanel (4 w/e 18th Aug 2013), Morgan Stanley Research Anche i distributori alimentari coreani hanno avuto difficoltà in Cina CARREFOUR Cina: deludenti le vendite LFL +20% 2005 LFL (reported) 2004 LFL (deflated) 2013/14 2003 2012/13 2002 2011/12 2001 Trading profit margin 2010/11 1999 2009/10 1998 2008/09 1997 2007/08 1996 2006/07 1995 -12% -6% 1994 EBIT margin 5.0% +4% 2% 5.8% 5.7% 2000 6% DELHAIZE USA: margine operativo lordo ai minimi degli ultimi 20 anni +10% +5% +0% -5% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -10% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Company Data, Morgan Stanley Research E-mart Lotte Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates 10 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH COOP Italia July 3, 2014 Quattro ragioni per spiegare i risultati deludenti: (1) troppi ipermercati TESCO: quasi l’80% dello spazio di vendita all’estero è costituito da grandi ipermercati (> 5000 m2) Tesco International - % of total space in Hypermarket format 100% In molti paesi del mondo il tasso di fertilità è crollato 3.5 Average number of children per women 3.0 100% 92% 92% 90% 2.5 83% 78% 77% 2.0 63% 1.5 1.0 24% 0.5 China Hungary S. Korea Turkey Slovakia Thailand Czech Republic Poland Korea 2013 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 Poland Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research L’edilizia “verticale” imperante in molti paesi si è rivelata un problema per il grandi ipermercati % Households living in flats 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 Ireland 70% Fonte: Euromonitor, Morgan Stanley Research Questa è una delle ragioni per cui I nuclei familiari sono sempre meno numerosi Average number of people per household 5.5 5.0 52% 57% 54% 4.5 4.0 3.5 27% 3.0 2.5 14% UK Hungary Poland Thailand Korea 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 2.0 2002 Malaysia 1979 1977 0.0 Turkey South Korea Fonte: Eurostat, UN, Morgan Stanley Research Note: dati relativi al2010 Poland Turkey Fonte: Euromonitor, Morgan Stanley Research 11 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH COOP Italia July 3, 2014 Quattro ragioni per per spiegare i risultati deludenti: (2) CEO stranieri e/o in carica per brevi periodi, (3) Nessuna presenza nel canale discount TESCO International: il mandato medio dei CEO è di 41 mesi e oltre il 70% dei CEO sono espatriati Le filiali quotate dei distributori internazionali al dettaglio hanno avuto risultati significativamente migliori da Gennaio del2502008 Index MSCI World Food Retail 165 200 125 150 58 41 100 Number of months working for the Number of months as CEO of the division division Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 50 Listed subsidiaries Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research Fonte: Datastream, Morgan Stanley Research In molti paesi dell’Europa dell’Est il canale discount rappresenta oltre il 100% delle vendite totali di grocery 18 Discount channel market (% of grocery sales) Tesco Slovakia Czech Republic Hungary Poland 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 Fonti: dati interni, Planet Retail, Morgan Stanley Research estimates 12 47% 6% Ahold 1% Colruyt 0% Sainsbury 0% Morrison Nestlé India (Coffee) Unilever India (skin care) Nestlé Argentina (baby… Unilever Indonesia… Danone Russia (yogurt) Danone USA (yogurt) 0% Unilever India (toothpaste) Nestlé India (chocolate) Walmart Mexico Casino Colombia Delhaize Serbia Tesco Hungary Carrefour Argentina Casino Brazil Walmart Interna. Carrefour Interna. DIA Interna. Tesco Interna. 9% Walmart Brazil Tesco Malaysia Walmart China Tesco Poland Carrefour China Tesco South Korea Ahold Czech Rep. Carrefour Poland Delhaize Romania Tesco China Tesco Turkey DIA Brazil Delhaize Indonesia Ahold NL Tesco UK Delhaize Belgium Carrefour France Walmart US Jeronimo Martins Portugal Casino France 13 COOP Italia July 3, 2014 Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research Casino Interna. 13% 12% 12% 12% 10% Ahold Intern. Casino Thailand MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH 23% Jeronimo Poland Tesco Thailand Jeronimo Martins Poland Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research estimates (e) Nestlé C&W Africa Differenze del ROIC lordo tra distributori alimentari e produttori del settore alimentare /HPC nei mercati emergenti 34% 28% 26% Nestlé Malaysia 90% 58% Nestlé India Unilever Nigeria 100% 94% 91% 63% Unilever Indonesia 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 0% 10% Colgate India Unilever India Carrefour Brazil 90% 8% Delhaize Unilever India (coffee) 100% 22% Tesco Danone Russia (yogurt) 80% Dia Unilever Inidia (shampoo) 70% 27% 26% Carrefour Colgate India (toothpaste) 60% 30% Metro Colgate India (tooth brush) Unilever Indonesia (soaps) 50% Casino Nestlé India (instant… Unilever Indonesia (skin… 40% 59% 58% Jeronimo Martins Unilever Indonesia… Nestle Brazil (baby food) 30% Reckitt Imperial Tobacco Nestlé India (baby food) Nestlé Brazil (milk formula) 20% 37% 36% 35% L'Oreal 0% Nestlé Diageo 10% 40% 40% Beiersdorf Quattro ragioni per spiegare I risultati deludenti: (4) pochissimi distributori alimentari con sede in Europa hanno conquistato quote di mercato dominanti all’estero 51% 51% 42% 42% Henkel Carlserg 28% Fonte: Morgan Stanley Research estimates Nota: la tabella mostra la % stimata di vendite del gruppo nei mercati emergenti per ogni operatore Danone Heineken Le quote di mercato all’estero dei distributori alimentari internazionali sono molto inferiori a quelle del settore alimentare/HPC 54% AB InBev La presenza nei mercati emergenti cambia molto tra distribuzione alimentare/HPC/produttori di bevande 74% 63% BAT Unilever Sonae 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% SAB Miller MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH COOP Italia July 3, 2014 Internet: minaccia o opportunità? 14 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH COOP Italia July 3, 2014 Gli ipermercati sembrano in difficoltà In Europa la presenza di ipermercati varia considerevolmente tra i grandi distributori 42% Nel Sud dell’Europa la percentuale di vendite online di generi non alimentari è ancora ridotta… 18.6% Estimated hypermarket selling space as % of total selling space 18.5% % Online sales in total non-food sales (2013) 16.5% 38% 36% 32% 13.4% 11.9% Note: Hypermarkets are defined as stores exceeding 60k sq ft of selling space and where non-food accounts for more than 20% of sales 14% 11.3% 9.3% 8.3% 4.5% 3.5% 4% 0% Tesco (Group) Carrefour (France) Carrefour Tesco (UK) (Group) Asda Sainsbury Jeronimo Martins 0% 0% Morrison Delhaize Fonte: dati interni, Morgan Stanley Research Fonte: Euromonitor, Planet Retail, Morgan Stanley Research …ma sembra che il Sud dell’Europa stia recuperando in fretta Interest for “Amazon” in Spain according to Google Trends Fonte: Google, Morgan Stanley Research Nota: la curva indica quante ricerche sono state fatte per un termine particolare, relativo al numero totale di ricerche su Google nel tempo 15 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH COOP Italia July 3, 2014 Gli ipermercati sembrano in difficoltà L’acquisto online di grocery è ad oggi un mercato di massa solo in Francia e nel Regno Unito Il metodo “click & collect” influisce negativamente sulle vendite non alimentari negli ipermercati... Non-food sales YoY evolution in hypermarkets/supermarkets with or without drive Online penetration in Grocery (2013) 4.9% H1 2011 H2 2011 3.8% -1.2% Spain Portugal US 0.9% 0.9% UK 0.4% France 0.3% Belgium 0.3% NL 0.2% Germany -3.0% -8.4% -9.4% Stores with "drive" unit Fonte: Kantar, Mintel, Morgan Stanley Research Stores without a "drive" unit Fonte: Nielsen, Morgan Stanley Research …e su quelle alimentari 87% cannibalization 59% cannibalization 20% cannibalization Drive accounts for >0-1% total FMCG turnover Drive accounts for >5-6% total turnover Drive accounts for >11-12% total turnover Source: Iri (for Ateliers du Drive), Linéaires, Morgan Stanley Research 16 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH COOP Italia July 3, 2014 Disclosures Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. 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